Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Oil and Gas Issues  (Read 479150 times)

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2400 on: May 31, 2018, 07:31:01 AM »
Option 3: Don't support the Kinder Morgan pipeline.

Wow, that was hard.

Done.  I'm not supporting it.

Now that means that climate change is no longer a problem, does it not?

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2401 on: May 31, 2018, 07:32:22 AM »
We must not underestimate how powerful the conditioning narrative has been of 'it's bad to be radical'. I recently watched that Black Panther movie and that was to me the main message of the movie. Nowadays, if you have radical ideas, you are a 'conspiracy theorist' who engages in 'magical thinking'. It sometimes frightens me to see how uncritically this conditioning is spread by those who are conditioned themselves. All it leads to is conformism, apathy and spiritual shallowness.

Nothing has ever changed because of a non-radical person. Nothing.

Is there suppose to be a way to stop climate change in there somewhere?

I missed it if there was.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2402 on: May 31, 2018, 07:54:28 AM »
Of course you missed it.
going to other sites to read something that someone thinks ought to be read - generally I'm not going to do it.  I'm not going to spend a lot of time on an expedition trying to discover someone's point.

I saw the Black Panther movie.

Are you saying that Option 3 is that we find a hidden kingdom that has a supply of Vibranium for us to use in place of fossil fuels?

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 156
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2403 on: May 31, 2018, 07:59:40 AM »
Option 3: Don't support the Kinder Morgan pipeline.

Wow, that was hard.

Done.  I'm not supporting it.

Now that means that climate change is no longer a problem, does it not?

You're pathetically reductive.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7029
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 608
  • Likes Given: 406
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2404 on: May 31, 2018, 08:01:16 AM »
Is there suppose to be a way to stop climate change in there somewhere?

I missed it if there was.

Yes, there is. You need to pay more attention.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2405 on: May 31, 2018, 08:05:42 AM »
Please spell it out in simple English. 

I do not understand what you are trying to say.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7029
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 608
  • Likes Given: 406
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2406 on: May 31, 2018, 08:08:47 AM »
Lesser. Evil. Not. Working. More. Radical. Needed.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2407 on: May 31, 2018, 08:12:27 AM »
Lesser. Evil. Not. Working. More. Radical. Needed.

OK, more radical.  Let's get more radical.

Shall we all buy automatic weapons and start shooting up the place.

Or are you thinking we should write a letter to our elected officials.  And perhaps use some stern language?

Give us some guidance least we wander around blindly, bumping into the furniture.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2408 on: May 31, 2018, 08:54:43 AM »
Sleepy, I absolutely no idea what you mean by "plate on the wall".

And I'm not watching some videos in order to ferret something thing you're thinking.  If you can't represent your thoughts in a few simple sentences then get out of the discussion and quit wasting people's times.  Go join Club Cryptic.


Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2409 on: May 31, 2018, 09:26:59 AM »
Sleepy, we all (I think) agree climate change is a problem and that we must cut greenhouse gas emissions.  That is not what is being discussed.  Neither is the evil that is capitalism the topic.

The discussion arises from my limited view of what we do.  I'll repeat for you.  I see only two options:

1. Do nothing.  (Do I need to expain to you where that will take  us?  I think not.)

2. Make incremental gains.

Some people are dissatisfied, apparently, with Option 2.  I'm asking them to suggest an Option 3.

Neven has suggested that Option 3 is to do something "radical".  I'm  waiting for him to explain what sort of radical thing he thinks that could work to stop GHG emissions.  In particular CO2 emissions.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5822
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 973
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2410 on: May 31, 2018, 09:56:11 AM »

The discussion arises from my limited view of what we do.  I'll repeat for you.  I see only two options:

1. Do nothing.  (Do I need to expain to you where that will take  us?  I think not.)

2. Make incremental gains.

Some people are dissatisfied, apparently, with Option 2.  I'm asking them to suggest an Option 3.


3. Non-violent civil disobedience.

Clever chap, that Gandhi - and it worked, eventually, after the authorities killed and injured quite a lot of protesters. The violence of the establishment (The British Raj) became the weapon of the protesters in the court of public opinion.

Modern examples currently underway include First Nations protests in N. America, anti-fracking in the UK, the campaign for gun control by young people in the US.  Some will work, many will not. But, at minimum, protest will at least expose the reality of the political / financial swamp and the lengths to which it will go to protect its interests.

Better than letting these shitty people crap on you.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

TerryM

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4814
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 211
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2411 on: May 31, 2018, 10:28:27 AM »
Electing the most radical politicians might serve as an incremental step.  Anything less is doing nothing.
Terry

Adam Ash

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 301
    • View Profile
    • The 100 metre line
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2412 on: May 31, 2018, 12:38:33 PM »
...
Nothing has ever changed because of a non-radical person. Nothing.
Indeed, as GB Shaw observed:
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

However, here we are not looking for the occasional 'unreasonable man',   we are looking for a significant majority of the 'advanced' world's population to adopt a new way of living which will avoid catastrophic climate-related outcomes. 

It will take a quite few very very 'unreasonable' men to get enough of the population to change the fundamentals of their way of life in a helpful way. 

I don't see any of the incumbents in positions of 'power' being sufficiently unreasonable to enough people to fix this in the time we have left.  Even China has a lot of momentum to overcome.

Like many here, I am scrambling to build a 'lifeboat' for me and mine to carry us over the stormy seas ahead.  But I suspect the drowning folk around us may drag us down.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2413 on: May 31, 2018, 07:15:34 PM »
Quote
3. Non-violent civil disobedience.

Give it a try.  As you've said sometimes it has worked. 

But I don't think you're going to turn things around that way only.  I just do not see enough people concerned enough to do what it takes to have a major impact.

Look at Germany.  90% of the population supports the Energiewende.  That is enormous popular support for anything.  Yet not enough of those people are willing to get in their government's face and speed up the demise of coal.

There are a lot of things can do to accelerate the transition.  If you live in a democracy vote for pro-environment candidates.  Contact and petition your leaders.  Cut your personal carbon footprint.  Encourage others to cut their personal carbon footprint and to vote for pro-environment candidates. 

Educate others about the health damage caused by fossil fuels and the hundreds of billions of dollars spent each year to treat the health damage as well as the tens/hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths each year.  Educate others about how moving to renewable energy will not only improve our quality of life, it will make electricity and travel cheaper.

With a little thought we can probably list other things that will help.  And some of us are already doing some or many of these things. I listed the things that I do that came to mind.

But none of these will cause an immediate end to fossil fuel.  I see no options other that to do nothing or to accept sequential approximations, gradual steps, are how we get to a low GHG world.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2414 on: May 31, 2018, 07:19:33 PM »
Quote
However, here we are not looking for the occasional 'unreasonable man',   we are looking for a significant majority of the 'advanced' world's population to adopt a new way of living which will avoid catastrophic climate-related outcomes.

I'll return to my oft made claim. 

We will only get a significant majority, no, all people to adopt a new way of living if it:

a) is as good or better than the old way and

b) costs little more, or better less, than what the old way cost.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2415 on: June 01, 2018, 03:06:54 AM »
Could we please stick to the topic of the threads?

This thread is about oil and gas issues, not political movements or however one might categorize the last several comments.  The "If not capitalism..." thread has also been hijacked.

If people want to talk about political problems in countries then start a thread in an appropriate section for that purpose.


numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 838
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2416 on: June 01, 2018, 04:23:47 AM »
Oil fracking is dirty as hell, and only displaces other dirty oil. I don’t see the benefit.

Gas fracking is dirty but displaced coal which is even worse (by a mile), and also allowed more renewables than a more coal-rich grid could tolerate. I could be perhaps convinced it was worth it.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2417 on: June 01, 2018, 04:35:57 AM »
Lesser. Evil. Not. Working. More. Radical. Needed.

Thank you for this. And the "more radical" necessarily needs to be outside the realm of what Capitalism says is possible.

The simple fact is that most of the proven reserves of all fossil fuels need to remain in the ground if we are to survive. This statement automatically requires that we look outside the functioning of efficient markets to avoid catastrophe. Capitalism, functioning appropriately, would declare this insane and doing what we need to do will require that some of our largest companies go bankrupt, cease to exist.

DEAL WITH IT!

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2418 on: June 01, 2018, 06:34:14 AM »
"Capitalism, functioning appropriately, "  is in the process of replacing oil based transportation with renewable energy based transportation.  Because the cost of traveling with electricity is becoming cheaper than traveling with oil.

Along the way some very large companies will either change their business model or go out of business.  Statoil, for example, has gone into the floating wind turbine business and is changing its name to Equinor, leaving its oil history behind it.

If you want to keep oil in the ground then look for ways you can travel without using oil.  And help push the transition to electricity powered transportation faster. 

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2419 on: June 01, 2018, 03:36:49 PM »
I don't understand how this is "trolling".
-----

Yes, Statoil is laying cable to an oil field owned by another company.  I suspect Statoil/Equinor is going to earn money by running cable for whomever wants to pay.  They will need to run cable for the floating wind turbines they install so if they can make money with the cable ship they have they will.

No one said that Statoil was getting out of the oil business because they had decided to fight climate change.  Statoil is getting out of the oil business, which is not the cable laying business, because they don't see the future in oil.

The discussion was -

Quote
"Capitalism, functioning appropriately, "  is in the process of replacing oil based transportation with renewable energy based transportation.  Because the cost of traveling with electricity is becoming cheaper than traveling with oil.

Along the way some very large companies will either change their business model or go out of business.  Statoil, for example, has gone into the floating wind turbine business and is changing its name to Equinor, leaving its oil history behind it.

ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 764
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2420 on: June 06, 2018, 02:38:41 AM »
This is both an Oil&Gas story and one of adaptation but I'll post here.

The refinery arm of Saudi Aramco has abandoned plans to expand their refinery in Port Arthur Texas and look for other locations because of the impacts of Hurricane Harvey. They clearly see increased risk of repeats of storm caused shutdowns and want to not have all of their refining capacity shutdown at once. (I guess they disagree with other posters to the forum about the increased weather risks)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-refinery-lessons-exclusiv/exclusive-hurricane-worries-prompt-refiner-motiva-to-shift-expansion-plans-idUSKCN1J00DU

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2181
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 197
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2421 on: June 06, 2018, 04:28:23 AM »

I'll return to my oft made claim. 

We will only get a significant majority, no, all people to adopt a new way of living if it:

a) is as good or better than the old way and

b) costs little more, or better less, than what the old way cost.


Nicely said. I understand this phenomenon in terms of survival instinct and evolution. The human body must seek better adaptations to increase it's evolutionary chances.

 In a world with abundant food, water and shelter the need to survive can be rationalized into whatever works for individuals. To some, making a painting increases the chances of to survival. To others, increasing a number in a bank account increases the chances of survival. They are both right according to their environment but they could both argue that the other is wrong because they live in a different environment.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Ken Feldman

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 571
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2422 on: June 06, 2018, 05:42:51 PM »
Interesting story about the 1 to 3 trillion dollars of potentially stranded oil industry assets in oilprice.com today:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-Technology-Could-Wipe-Out-Trillions-in-Fossil-Fuel-Investment.html

Quote
We are living in a carbon bubble with trillions of dollars held in oil, gas, and coal assets that would be wiped out before long as technological advancements in all sorts of industries quickly undermine fossil fuel demand.

This is the gist of a recent study led by the University of Cambridge, which involved macroeconomic simulations, with the researchers concluding we are on the brink of a much worse financial crisis than the one from 2008 as between 1 and 3 trillion worth of fossil fuel investments turn into stranded assets. For context, the authors note that the 2008 crisis was sparked by losses to the tune of US$250 billion.

I'm not sure the ExxonMobile, Saudi Aramaco and Russia going broke would plunge us into a financial crisis though.  Not with other industries (and consumers) saving money on cheaper energy and fuel efficiencies.  Plus, the renewables industries already employ more people than the coal industry, so it's more of a change in which companies/countries are earning the money.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2423 on: June 06, 2018, 06:06:53 PM »

I'll return to my oft made claim. 

We will only get a significant majority, no, all people to adopt a new way of living if it:

a) is as good or better than the old way and

b) costs little more, or better less, than what the old way cost.

I absolutely agree with this. Everyone seeks a better life for themselves and their children and grandchildren.

The inherent problem is that this good life (getting better and better for most of us on the planet over the past 5 decades) has a very long, slow feedback loop caused by the lifestyles that have given us the "Good Life". Once it becomes clear what the result is, we will see the "Good Life" transform to "Horrible Death" quickly and ruthlessly.

And it will be too late to alter our fate. There will be nothing we can do.

Atmospheric CO2 continues its climb. (See Chart) Meanwhile, despite all of the happy talk on this blog about renewables and our switch to low emission natural gas, CO2 emissions continue to climb after the Paris agreement.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-co2-emissions-rise-after-paris-climate-agreement-signed/

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2424 on: June 06, 2018, 07:09:18 PM »
Quote
I'm not sure the ExxonMobile, Saudi Aramaco and Russia going broke would plunge us into a financial crisis though.  Not with other industries (and consumers) saving money on cheaper energy and fuel efficiencies.  Plus, the renewables industries already employ more people than the coal industry, so it's more of a change in which companies/countries are earning the money.

Agreed.  The end of oil will hurt some specific countries.  But globally most countries will benefit from not making oil purchases from other countries.  Renewables will create a lot more jobs than will be lost.  Both energy and transportation costs will drop.

A lot of the coal-hurt is already happening.  Eastern US coal is pretty much done in.  Western coal mines are reporting slumping sales.  Australia coal mines are not able to maintain sales.  I'd expect a mostly gradual fadeaway for coal.  Plants won't be closed until there is replacement generation in place.

Oil should start getting a hurt within the next five years as EV sales move above 10% of new car sales.  But it will probably take more than 10 years to cut demand by 50%.*  Look for a 20 to 25 year slide to the grave for oil but not a sudden collapse. 

*Robotaxis could put a world of hurt on oil very rapidly.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2425 on: June 06, 2018, 07:14:50 PM »
The inherent problem with this good life is that up until now we have made our lives better largely with the use of fossil fuel energy and non-sustainable inputs.

There's enough solar and wind energy available for everyone to have all the energy they need.

If we move to sustainable agriculture and manufacturing then everyone should be able to enjoy plenty to eat, comfortable housing, and some of life's comforts.

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 300
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2426 on: June 06, 2018, 07:28:59 PM »
The inherent problem with this good life is that up until now we have made our lives better largely with the use of fossil fuel energy and non-sustainable inputs.

There's enough solar and wind energy available for everyone to have all the energy they need.

If we move to sustainable agriculture and manufacturing then everyone should be able to enjoy plenty to eat, comfortable housing, and some of life's comforts.
I have a single word response to the hope you express here Bob: Panarchy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panarchy

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2427 on: June 06, 2018, 08:14:39 PM »
And I have a single word response for you:

Enigmatic.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2428 on: June 07, 2018, 05:56:14 AM »
I find this part of the Greenpeace article interesting.

Quote
China’s coal use remains well below its peak in 2013. Total CO2 emissions could be lower or higher depending on which time series you look at.

Note though that there are major uncertainties about short-term data – calculating back from recently published data, coal output in 2016-2017 seems to have been recently revised down by 5-10%, without explanation, which means that the recent increase is just coal demand reaching the level that we thought it was on in 2016. The revisions mean that the statistics initially understated how fast coal use and emissions were falling.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2429 on: June 07, 2018, 05:57:54 AM »
BTW, Sleepy, why post the same information in two different threads? 

Especially when it doesn't belong in one of those threads? 


Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14812
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2430 on: June 13, 2018, 07:15:28 PM »
A quickly-built, cheap pipeline, only six months old.  Expect more instances of this as fossil fuel companies try desperately to wring out any profits they can in the short time they have left.

TransCanada's New 'Best-In-Class' Gas Pipeline Explodes in West Virginia, Causing Fiery Blast
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/07/new-transcanada-leach-xpress-pipeline-explodes-west-virginia
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5822
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 973
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2431 on: June 13, 2018, 07:27:28 PM »
BTW, Sleepy, why post the same information in two different threads? 

Especially when it doesn't belong in one of those threads?

Sounds like you are making a case for a Coal, Oil and Gas Issues thread.  :)
I always thought that there should be a single fossil fuels thread to concentrate the good and bad news in one place.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2432 on: June 13, 2018, 08:23:36 PM »
BTW, Sleepy, why post the same information in two different threads? 

Especially when it doesn't belong in one of those threads?

Sounds like you are making a case for a Coal, Oil and Gas Issues thread.  :)
I always thought that there should be a single fossil fuels thread to concentrate the good and bad news in one place.

The challenges and solutions are different. Multiple threads are needed IMHO.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14812
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2433 on: June 13, 2018, 09:41:36 PM »
Not sure whether this is a challenge, or a solution. ;)

U.S. Is on Track to Become a Net Exporter of Energy
Quote
U.S. energy production is booming, yet consumption has flat-lined, putting the country on track to be a net exporter for the first time since 1957.

If the breakneck 2011-15 output pace of about 6% above the five-year average resumes -- as seems likely -- production should draw ahead of stalled consumption in 2021, according to Mike McGlone and Richard Marquit of Bloomberg Intelligence. If the disparity slows to production gaining 3% above the five-year average, 2029 will be the break-even date.

Once strongly influenced by GDP, the pace of U.S. energy consumption is unlikely to gain much with improved growth, as rapidly advancing technology and demographic shifts appear to be overwhelming the relationship. From 1999-2017, U.S. energy supply has increased 22% vs. 1% for demand. Natural-gas products are the greatest factor in the rise, about 38% of the total.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/burst-of-energy-output-puts-u-s-on-track-to-be-net-exporter
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14812
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2434 on: June 14, 2018, 10:08:56 PM »
Several oil and gas companies have tried to sell off less-productive fields in order to raise cash.  But they aren’t finding buyers.

U.S. energy firms chasing oil price rally stumble on old baggage
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-m-a-fields/u-s-energy-firms-chasing-oil-price-rally-stumble-on-old-baggage-idUSKBN1JA0EG
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2435 on: June 15, 2018, 02:55:12 AM »
Several oil and gas companies have tried to sell off less-productive fields in order to raise cash.  But they aren’t finding buyers.

U.S. energy firms chasing oil price rally stumble on old baggage
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-m-a-fields/u-s-energy-firms-chasing-oil-price-rally-stumble-on-old-baggage-idUSKBN1JA0EG

Quote
But since shareholders across the industry in general favor shedding assets over acquisitions, the sentiment makes striking new deals tricky.

People inside the oil industry starting to look at a bleaker future for oil?  Make what money you can now and don't take risks for potential long term profits because there may be no long term profits.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5822
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 973
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2436 on: June 16, 2018, 12:46:07 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/jun/15/canada-oil-sands-pipeline-trans-mountain-what-if-invest-renewable-wind-energy

What if Canada had spent $200bn on wind energy instead of oil?
Stephen Leahy

Quote
In explaining Canada's decision to nationalise the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline for $4.5bn, Bill Morneau went hard on the economic argument. “Make no mistake,” the finance minister said. “This is an investment in Canada’s future.”

In fact, since 1999, more than $200bn has been invested into the Alberta oil sands for that future. But what if that cash had gone into wind energy instead?

Let’s compare.

Extract attached
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 838
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2437 on: June 16, 2018, 03:11:49 PM »
Not exactly a fair comparison: using today’s wind energy cost for investments dating back to 1999.

It would have accelerated the pace of wind technology though, and thus prevented the construction of coal plants world-wide.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5822
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 973
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2438 on: June 16, 2018, 03:29:23 PM »
Not exactly a fair comparison: using today’s wind energy cost for investments dating back to 1999.

It would have accelerated the pace of wind technology though, and thus prevented the construction of coal plants world-wide.
Well spotted.

I agree that the writer has been naughty looking at today's renewable energy costs. This allows the deniers and fossil fuel fanatics to debunk the article.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 838
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2439 on: June 16, 2018, 05:03:19 PM »
I basically disagree with the entire analysis. I’d love to see a more solid attempt, because I suspect it would still show the same: the tar sands are a disaster even on financial grounds.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2440 on: June 16, 2018, 10:11:04 PM »
one of the main reasons why people who want the right thing and think the right way get lost in discussions about details while the other side just follows there ego-centered careless and ruthless life style.

this is a very innocent example with the question what had been better, to invest in oil or in renewables (i.e. wind)

fact is that under all circumstances and from every point of view it had been better by now if mankind had earlier began to invest more or almost only into renewables instead of nuclear and fossil.

this is where this story ends, everything further will disperse the energy of those who want to improve things into oblivion.

this does not mean that the arguments are wrong, they are just not very relevant and not target leading because after all we talk about the past with the intention to learn for the future i suppose?

Even if renewables are and would remain (which they won't) to be more expensive, even then it would be much better to opt for renewables because if we are dead we can't spend the extra profits.

futher i doubt that renewables have ever been more expensive at all, not if we calculate the indirect costs like back-building nuclear power plants as well as the costs we shall face to deal with the effects of pollution and global warming.

politics and economy based on capitalism suffer form the same flaw:

they need to provide a short term result (shareholder value/re-election) while the only really good results are long term, at least when it comes to environment and similar topics.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14812
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2441 on: June 17, 2018, 01:04:56 PM »
Bill McKibben:  “Just to be clear: the oil industry is now artificially chilling Alaska's melting permafrost to make it solid enough to drill for and transport yet more oil “
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/1008141199591591936

Oil Industry Copes With Climate Impacts As Permafrost Thaws
https://www.npr.org/2018/06/11/617240387/oil-industry-copes-with-climate-impacts-as-permafrost-thaws
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2442 on: June 17, 2018, 04:21:10 PM »
Much has been said about the difficulty of storing the excess energy generated by solar panels when production exceeds demand. Batteries and other storage methods are seen as the solution. We should instead connect compressors and air condition the outdoors when production exceeds consumption.  ;)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14812
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2443 on: June 18, 2018, 06:56:47 PM »
'Historic First': Nebraska Farmers Return Land to Ponca Tribe in Effort to Block Keystone XL
Quote
In a move that could challenge the proposed path of TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline—and acknowledges the U.S. government's long history of abusing Native Americans and forcing them off their lands—a Nebraska farm couple has returned a portion of ancestral land to the Ponca Tribe.

At a deed-signing ceremony earlier this week, farmers Art and Helen Tanderup transferred to the tribe a 1.6-acre plot of land that falls on Ponca "Trail of Tears."

Now, as the Omaha World-Herald explained, rather than battling the farmers, "TransCanada will have to negotiate with a new landowner, one that has special legal status as a tribe." ...
https://www.ecowatch.com/nebraska-farmers-keystone-xl-2578444895.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2444 on: June 19, 2018, 01:51:27 PM »
I made a bet with a friend many, many months ago ..... when the price of Exxon/Mobil (XOM) was about $80.  The bet I made was "XOM will get down to $60 BEFORE it sees $90.

So right now..... my friend and I are in the same place that we started many months ago.  I believe that I WILL win that bet.... as I see XOM with a HIGH probability to get down to $60 in the months ahead.

But out of the GAZILLION things I DON'T KNOW ...... is this:  Will XOM get down to $30 - $35 before it ever gets to $90 (some decade in the future... if ever)?  Right now XOM is at about $80.

THAT.... is a VERY REAL POSSIBILITY.    Everywhere I look ...... EVERYBODY is moving to electric power from ICE in the transportation industry:  Cars, Semi Trucks, Vans, small boat engines (Torqeedo outboard engines), yachts (Solarwave 55, 64, 75 catamaran), scooters, motorcycles, regional hybrid planes, small planes, ferry's etc.

Now.... granted.... some of it is just at the very beginning like Solarwave Catamaran yachts, and we're talking small amounts (right now).  But it is EVERYWHERE.  And soon.... in the next 2 years or so .... prices are going to blow ICE out of the water.

Of course oil prices are set by supply and demand CURRENTLY.  But the asset price of STOCKS are different.  People don't HAVE to "store" stocks like they do oil.  In the oil market, somebody HAS to take "delivery" of the oil.

There is a lot of money wrapped up in the energy sector ..... and eventually a LOT of it is going to be "heading out of Dodge".  I think that process actually started in 2014 ..... and will continue for quite a while.

Interesting times we live in......





FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2445 on: June 19, 2018, 04:58:30 PM »
A whole lot of future looking statements with little data in support of claims.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2446 on: June 19, 2018, 05:10:56 PM »
The price of XOM stock follows closely the near term future of the company. While there will certainly come a time when the future demise of the fossil fuel industry will result in a discounted value of the stock, irregardless of the oil reserves of the company, I see no evidence of this currently in the attached graph.

My prediction for the near future? XOM stock prices will decline as the world enters into a recession as a result of the trade war brinkmanship practiced by the orange shitgibbon leading my country. The stock price will then rise as we exit the recession. You can see this behavior of the stock price as a result of the 2008 Great Recession.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2447 on: June 19, 2018, 05:24:12 PM »
Of course oil prices are set by supply and demand CURRENTLY

I am trying to understand your use of bold capitals in this post. What message are you trying to convey here? My read is that the "CURRENTLY" is intended to suggest that this may not always be the case. Is this a misunderstanding on my part? I hope it is as oil prices will always be set by supply and demand.

We will know that the oil industry is finally collapsing when we see several things happening simultaneously...

  • long term, strong growth in the world economy
  • steady reductions in the demand for oil
  • stubbornly high stocks of oil despite drops in production
  • collapse of oil prices even with a growing economy
  • complete collapse in new investments for unconventional sources of oil
  • companies abandoning unconventional sources of oil that are already in production

I do not expect to see this anytime soon and will be pleasantly surprised if it does.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 05:43:11 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14812
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2448 on: June 19, 2018, 06:03:50 PM »
Bill McKibben argues that the oil companies will collapse when the world acknowledges that we cannot use all the petroleum that the oil companies claim to own.  Because oil companies are valued in large part based on the amount of their proven reserves, once those reserves are seen as unburnable, they are worthless, and thus so are the companies.

The price of oil may fluctuate due to short term supply/demand while we beat a “managed decline.”  But the viability of fossil fuel companies is, strangely enough, in the people’s hands: how strongly we insist on moving away from dirty energy.

Quote
In the United States alone, the existing mines and oil wells and gas fields contain 86 billion tons of carbon emissions—enough to take us 25 percent of the way to a 1.5 degree rise in global temperature. But if the U.S. energy industry gets its way and develops all the oil wells and fracking sites that are currently planned, that would add another 51 billion tons in carbon emissions. And if we let that happen, America would single-handedly blow almost 40 percent of the world’s carbon budget.

This new math is bad news for lots of powerful players. The fossil fuel industry has based its entire business model on the idea that it can endlessly “replenish” the oil and gas it pumps each year; its teams of geologists are constantly searching for new fields to drill. In September, Apache Corporation announced that it has identified fields in West Texas that hold three billion barrels of oil. Leaving that oil underground—which the new math shows we must do if we want to meet the climate targets set in Paris—would cost the industry tens of billions of dollars. ...
https://newrepublic.com/article/136987/recalculating-climate-math
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 323
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2449 on: June 19, 2018, 06:16:15 PM »
Attached you will find 2 charts. The 1st charts worldwide production and consumption of oil and other liquid fuels as well as the implied changes of currently available supply. The 2nd chart tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate, used as the benchmark for U.S. oil.

In the 1st chart we see that production and consumption trends track together over the last 8 years, sometimes production exceeds demand, sometimes the reverse.

In the 2nd chart we see how this interplay of supply and demand can have dramatic effects on the price of a barrel of oil. We see ridiculously dramatic climbs in the price of oil in 1973 and 1979 as a result of OPEC flexing its muscles and curtailing supply during the 1973 Arab/Israeli war and the 1979 Iranian revolution. We see another, very dramatic drop in price in 2008 as a result of the Great Recession and a collapse in the demand for oil.

I would like to point out how even minor fluctuations in the demand and supply for oil can result in significant price changes. If you look at the first chart, we see that world production exceeded demand from 2014 Q1 to 2016 Q2. This resulted in a steady increase in available supply. During this period, the price of a barrel of WTI crude fell from $103 to $30.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

My point is that looking only at the fluctuations and trends in the price of oil tells us nothing about the long term future of the oil industry.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 06:36:55 PM by Shared Humanity »