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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2550 on: July 07, 2018, 11:00:32 PM »
If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, they may as well send an invitation to the US and Israel to come in and take out their nuclear capabilities.  I don’t think you see the Iranians do that.
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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2551 on: July 07, 2018, 11:48:05 PM »
Taking out their nuclear capabilities will not stop them from closing the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, if they want it. At the most narrow point it's 54 km wide. That's a distance they can even cover with artillery. Add some mines and warschips and it can be closed for months, taking 17 million barrels a day off the market. And the inflation is already high in Iran, their currency is collapsing, heavy pollution, water stress, demonstrations......That kind of situations produces radical regimes in general.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2552 on: July 08, 2018, 01:35:14 AM »
Trump plays with fire. Someone might get burnt.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/05/iran-retaliate-us-oil-threats-eu-visit-hassan-rouhani-trump
Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz over US oil sanctions

Quote
A potential confrontation between the US and Iran is brewing in the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran threatened to block the Gulf passageway in retaliation for Washington’s looming sanctions against Iranian oil exports – a threat the US military said would be immediately countered.

The Trump administration is demanding all countries end imports of Iranian oil by 4 November as part of its new policy of hostility towards Tehran after Washington’s unilateral exit from the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, responded during a rare visit to Europe this week by signalling that Tehran could disrupt regional crude shipments and cut its cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. On Thursday the commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, whose forces patrol the Strait of Hormuz – through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes in tankers – said the Guards were ready to put Rouhani’s words into action if necessary.

Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards commander, was quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency as saying: “We will make the enemy understand that either everyone can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one.”

Bill Urban, a spokesman for US Central Command, said Washington and its allies provided security in the region and would not stand idly by. “Together, we stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows,” he said.

The threats will bring back memories of the latter years of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, when US forces attacked Iranian territorial waters after a US ship struck an Iranian mine.

Rouhani returned to Tehran on Thursday after lobbying European leaders to deliver a robust rebuttal to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal.

“The Americans have claimed they want to completely stop Iran’s oil exports. They don’t understand the meaning of this statement because it has no meaning for Iranian oil not to be exported while the region’s oil is exported,” Rouhani said this week in Switzerland.
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Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2553 on: July 08, 2018, 04:13:22 PM »
They've been hem-hawing about closing the strait off and on for 40 years. It's extremely unlikely to happen. If it did, there'd be a few carrier groups there to ensure that it re-opens and stays open. (Disclosure - USN vet here).

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2554 on: July 08, 2018, 05:03:01 PM »
They've been hem-hawing about closing the strait off and on for 40 years. It's extremely unlikely to happen. If it did, there'd be a few carrier groups there to ensure that it re-opens and stays open. (Disclosure - USN vet here).
In the 1980's kerfuffle the Strait was not shut - but those pesky little Iranian boats kept up the pressure. It was enough to make some insurers withdraw cover and for some shippers to stop shipping and to send the price of crude up.

The potential for Iranian suicide missions might be enough to scare off shipping again.

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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2555 on: July 08, 2018, 05:55:37 PM »
They've been hem-hawing about closing the strait off and on for 40 years. It's extremely unlikely to happen. If it did, there'd be a few carrier groups there to ensure that it re-opens and stays open. (Disclosure - USN vet here).

30 Years Ago, US Shot Down a Passenger Plane Killing 290 Civilians & Covered It Up
https://freedomoutpost.com/30-years-ago-us-shot-down-a-passenger-plane-killing-290-civilians-covered-it-up/
"The scheduled flight was traveling from Tehran to Dubai, and there were 66 children on board, all of whom were killed, as no passengers or crew members survived the attack. The plane was shot down by the USS Vincennes, which was operating within Iranian territorial waters. It targeted the large Airbus A300 and then insisted that crew members mistook it for an F-14 fighter jet, despite the obvious difference in size."

This should serve as a reminder.
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Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2556 on: July 09, 2018, 07:00:34 PM »
They've been hem-hawing about closing the strait off and on for 40 years. It's extremely unlikely to happen. If it did, there'd be a few carrier groups there to ensure that it re-opens and stays open. (Disclosure - USN vet here).
In the 1980's kerfuffle the Strait was not shut - but those pesky little Iranian boats kept up the pressure. It was enough to make some insurers withdraw cover and for some shippers to stop shipping and to send the price of crude up.

The potential for Iranian suicide missions might be enough to scare off shipping again.

Our tech has advanced considerably since the 80s, to the point that it would indeed be suicide for Iran to even try to mount anything resembling an offensive on the water -- or even anything within range of ship-to-shore weapons systems. The gap is even bigger than it was back then.

"Immediate counter" is a pretty gentle and generous way of putting it.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2557 on: July 09, 2018, 08:30:24 PM »
Given that the demand for oil is highly inelastic, the best possible approach for oil producing countries is to target production so that the price of oil hovers at about $100 per barrel. This serves their nation's interests while simultaneously driving long term decisions to move away from oil. As demand drops, production should be restricted so as to maintain this price.

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2558 on: July 09, 2018, 08:34:55 PM »
At the shipping lanes the water is max 100 meter deep. At some places it's not even 50 meters. They can sink ships to make the strait more narrow. Some ships are more than 50 meters wide. That would block the strait physical. And how long would it take to remove them, if there are mines and mobile artillary all over the place.

Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2559 on: July 10, 2018, 02:49:41 PM »
The navigable channel is about 40km wide. Sunken ships isn't really a viable tactic and we have a lot of minesweeping capability in that region just for such a strategy.

It really is hard to state how much of a hollow threat it is in this day for Iran to "close the Straits".

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2560 on: July 10, 2018, 02:53:32 PM »
Chinese Refiner Stops U.S. Oil Imports, Turns To Iranian Crude

Chess anyone?
Quote

An independent Chinese refiner has suspended crude oil purchases from the United States and has now turned to Iran as one of its sources of crude, media reports, citing an official from the refiner, Dongming Petrochemical Group.

What’s more, the source said that Beijing is planning to slap tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports and replace them with West African and Middle Eastern crude, including crude from Iran. China has already said that it will not comply with U.S. sanctions against Iran and it seems to be the only country for now in a position to do this.

U.S. crude oil exports to China reached 400,000 bpd at the beginning of this month, but now Beijing is planning to impose a 25-percent tariff on these as part of its retaliation for Trump’s latest round of tariffs on US$34 billion worth of Chinese goods. The retaliation began with tariffs on 545 U.S. goods worth another US$34 billion, but, Reuters reports, the oil tariffs will be announced at a later date.


Iran really doesn't care much WHO buys its oil.  Oil is a commodity .... and all oils are pretty much the same (yes....I know there is a small difference between oils, some is "thicker" and costs slightly more to refine... but oil from Iran is pretty much the same as oil from Saudi Arabia).

So if Iran can let China step in and buy its oil ..... because South Korea and Europe are cutting back on Iranian oil imports .... then Iran is fine ..... AND .... so is the price of oil.  It is only IF Iran wouldn't be able to sell all the oil it usually does, that the price of oil would then be effected.

If you're China .... you may want Iran to give China a small DISCOUNT on the oil (and I suspect China may be doing that) .... and if you're Iran, you're fine with that.  Selling oil to China at a small discount to market is a LOT better than selling NO OIL AT ALL.

So the chess game between China and US continues with the oil market AS WELL as with tariffs.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinese-Refiner-Stops-US-Oil-Imports-Turns-To-Iranian-Crude.html
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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2561 on: July 10, 2018, 03:37:03 PM »
Asia has very little oil of it's own, Europe has very little oil of it's own , and Africa has very little oil of it's own. I think there will be plenty buyers for Iranian oil, or it wil be finished with global growth.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2562 on: July 10, 2018, 05:44:29 PM »
... Africa has very little oil of it's own. ...
This, I believe, is not supported by the evidence:

From Wikipedia and here I get the following:

Largest African oil producers
Nigeria                   1,988,000  (13th globally)
Angola                   1,674,000
Algeria                   1,540,000
Libya                        865,000
Egypt                       494,325
Sudan                      255,000
Equatorial Guinea      227,000
Repbulic of Congo     308,363
Gabon                      210,820
South Africa                 2,000
Africa Total            7,564,508

Largest global producers
1  United States     13,057,000
2  Saudi Arabia       11,951,000
3  Russia                11,257,000
4  Iran                     4,982,000

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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2563 on: July 10, 2018, 05:47:17 PM »
Here's a good read by Peter Sinclair over at Crock Of The Week....

Quote
I posted a video interview last week with a Resource Planner for Michigan’s largest electric utility – Consumers Energy – in which she described the decision to forego new gas turbines, in favor of solar, some wind, and efficiency.

Above, a recent local television spot describes further the steps to shut down coal plants.  The goal is 80 percent carbon reduction by mid-century – which is not enough, to be sure – but it’s hard to overestimate the significance of this change, which has really happened at light speed (in utility terms) over the last several years.

https://climatecrocks.com/2018/07/07/update-midwest-utility-says-goodbye-to-coal-no-more-gas-were-going-solar/

Be sure to watch the video of Jessica Woycehoski ..... a long term planner for Consumers Energy.


As some of you might know..... the oil and gas companies have been shifting some of their "mix" of business from OIL to NATURAL GAS over the past several years.  Exxon .... seeing as though she is the dumbest of the O&G sisters .... has been slower to change their mix over (which is one of the reasons XOM is a "lagging" stock in the O&G sector). 

I had ..... until recently..... felt that natural gas would have much longer staying power.  Coal was the fossil fuel that got whacked FIRST ..... and then OIL (currently) ..... and then NATURAL GAS will eventually get whacked as well.

It looks like natural gas may not have such a long ride after-all.  Previously ..... I was thinking it might be another 20 years or more before nat gas gets "whacked" (by whacked I don't mean going to ZERO .... but I mean pretty much on the slope of what coal has done (and continues to do) over the past 5 years or so.

Well..... solar and wind keep coming down in price, and some of the people that do the long range planning for electric utilities are now beginning to "skip over" natural gas because it doesn't fit into their intermediate/long term planning FROM A COST PERSPECTIVE.

THAT..... is not good news for oil and gas companies IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM (5 - 10 years from now).  Long term, of course, it is HORRIBLE NEWS.  But that "long term" is being PULLED FORWARD more than expected.

Of course...... this also helps the move towards electrifying transportation.  That marriage of electric homes/businesses and electric vehicles is going to be VERY GOOD for consumers...... and not very good for some O&G companies and some O&G oligarch's of little Vladi's in Russia.  ;)

 
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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2564 on: July 10, 2018, 09:23:26 PM »
... Africa has very little oil of it's own. ...
This, I believe, is not supported by the evidence:

From Wikipedia and here I get the following:

Largest African oil producers
Nigeria                   1,988,000  (13th globally)
Angola                   1,674,000
Algeria                   1,540,000
Libya                        865,000
Egypt                       494,325
Sudan                      255,000
Equatorial Guinea      227,000
Repbulic of Congo     308,363
Gabon                      210,820
South Africa                 2,000
Africa Total            7,564,508

Largest global producers
1  United States     13,057,000
2  Saudi Arabia       11,951,000
3  Russia                11,257,000
4  Iran                     4,982,000

Their reserves are not so very big. I think only Libya and Nigeria have some big reserves, like 30 to 40 billion barrels. Compared with the size of that African population it's not that much. And compared with the annual global consumption it's also not much, like 1 year global consumption.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2565 on: July 10, 2018, 09:47:29 PM »
I had ..... until recently..... felt that natural gas would have much longer staying power.  Coal was the fossil fuel that got whacked FIRST ..... and then OIL (currently) ..... and then NATURAL GAS will eventually get whacked as well. 

If by 'oil currently getting whacked', you mean that the demand and consumption of oil worldwide will continue to rise then, yes, you are correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/06/19/peak-oil-demand-is-millions-of-barrels-away/#3a4d7d569404

https://www.statista.com/statistics/265239/global-oil-consumption-in-barrels-per-day/

This data that I link to is actually readily available for anyone who cares to understand the energy situation and typing words in BOLD FACE UPPER CASE when making spurious claims does not make the argument more compelling.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2566 on: July 11, 2018, 05:30:51 PM »

Climate Denial Crock of the Week
with Peter Sinclair
 Can a Radical New Gas Turbine Be a Zero Carbon Solution?
Quote
Well, only if they can solve the problem of methane loss at every stage of the production process. But those problems are solvable, essentially with monitoring, commitment, and some chewing gum and duct tape.

Next problem is, you’ve got a whole lot of carbon, what to do with it?
...
The remaining, pure stream of CO2 can be buried underground.
...
I'm with Peter Sinclair when he writes (in the article)
Quote
I think wind and solar are moving too fast for new fossil tech to catch up, but I’ve been wrong before.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2567 on: July 12, 2018, 02:33:44 PM »
Here's a NEW video by Tony Seba on his recent trip to Atlanta (June 2018).  Video is 37 minutes .... and contains some updated information from just a few months ago (in the back half of the video).



Tony does a great job of laying out the likely course of BOTH the disruption now occurring in transportation, as well as the disruption NOW OCCURING IN FOSSIL FUELS.

Note:  "Peakers" that Tony talks about are NATURAL GAS PEAKERS  Most "peakers" are NATURAL GAS TURBINES used to provide "peak power needs". As it turns out .... nat gas peakers are quickly turning into a dinosaur ..... much like an ICE vehicle.

Tony, as usual, does a great job of laying out the likely course of the future.  HE DOESN'T LIVE IN THE PAST LIKE SOME PEOPLE.  Rear view mirrors are great to see WHAT WAS.   And even Tony uses a rear view mirror to see what HAS HAPPENED in the past.  But he is FORWARD LOOKING ..... with a BROAD VIEW of the future..... understanding that individual technologies (lidar, internet, EV's, "peakers", solar, computing power, etc) .....  as well as CHANGES IN BUSINESS MODELS come together to provide the fertile field for disruption ..... and FAST DISRUPTION AT THAT.

Enjoy....
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2568 on: July 12, 2018, 04:28:16 PM »
Trump is trying to strong arm Germany to ditch Russian gas and switch to US LNG. I have a question that has been bugging me for some time. What is the conversion efficiency of turning natural gas into LNG? How much energy is lost to the conversion process? I would prefer to see it as a percentage like BTUs in = BTUs out at the point when the LNG is turned back in to gas. Of course there are other costs like transportation and storage that should be included if we want to compare pipeline gas to LNG but it looks like using LNG is a much more carbon intense process than natural gas alone.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2569 on: July 12, 2018, 09:12:50 PM »
Stepping away from the worst of the worst.

Exxon Quits Koch-Backed Business Group After Climate Change Row
> American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) has faced member exodus
> Oil giant disagreed with climate measures debated last year
Quote
Exxon Mobil Corp. quit the American Legislative Exchange Council, a lobbying group bankrolled by fossil fuel companies, following a disagreement over climate-change policy.

The oil giant won’t be renewing its membership after it expired in June, spokesman Scott Silvestri said by phone. Exxon had a public spat with ALEC in December when some members backed by climate skeptics such as the Heartland Institute moved to convince the federal government to drop its claim that climate change is a risk to human health.

Exxon’s departure comes amid a corporate exodus by the likes of Ford Motor Co. and Expedia Group Inc. departed, largely in response to ALEC’s positions on climate rules, renewable energy and other issues. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-12/exxon-quits-koch-backed-business-group-after-climate-change-row
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2570 on: July 12, 2018, 11:51:17 PM »
ALL CAPS BOLD FACE remains and still not compelling.

Ok. I'll give you some forward looking based on hard facts.

In 2015, there were 1.282 billion vehicles on the planet, 947 million passenger cars and 335 million commercial vehicles. In 2016 sales of cars and light commercial vehicles was just over 93 million. In 2017, sales hit 96.8 million.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/265859/vehicle-sales-worldwide/

Virtually all of these sales in 2016 and 2017 and most of the sales in 2018 are/will be ICE vehicles. This will be true for a number of years.

Why do I say this? In 2016, the total number of EV's on the planet hit a new milestone...

2 million.

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/june/electric-vehicles-have-another-record-year-reaching-2-million-cars-in-2016.html

The hundreds of millions of new ICE vehicles that will hit the roads over the next 5 to 10 years will drive the consumption of fossil fuels up.

Are EV's a disruptor? Yes. Are EV sales climbing? Yes, rapidly, but not nearly fast enough to keep hundreds of millions of new ICE vehicles from hitting the road.

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

Will oil sales flatten or decline in the next 5 years? Absolutely not. It will be a decade at the earliest before oil production declines to match the amount produced today.

There is absolutely nothing to be gained by putting on a :) and ignoring the hard facts. If we are going to fix the problem, we first need to quantify the problem. If we don't measure it, we cannot possibly track our progress towards a carbon free  world which we desperately need to get to.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 12:05:49 AM by Shared Humanity »

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2571 on: July 13, 2018, 02:01:24 PM »
Trump is trying to strong arm Germany to ditch Russian gas and switch to US LNG. I have a question that has been bugging me for some time. What is the conversion efficiency of turning natural gas into LNG? How much energy is lost to the conversion process? I would prefer to see it as a percentage like BTUs in = BTUs out at the point when the LNG is turned back in to gas. Of course there are other costs like transportation and storage that should be included if we want to compare pipeline gas to LNG but it looks like using LNG is a much more carbon intense process than natural gas alone.
I don't have any numbers either but surely LNG is much more carbon and methane intensive than plain natgas. But in any case both LNG and/or pipeline imports are a very bad idea strategically, as any study of military history can attest. Solar and wind should be deployed in mass to achieve energy independemce even if AGW is not a pressing concern. And if/when renewables are incorporated into defense budgets, they will actually happen.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2572 on: July 13, 2018, 04:48:38 PM »
Trump is trying to strong arm Germany to ditch Russian gas and switch to US LNG. I have a question that has been bugging me for some time. What is the conversion efficiency of turning natural gas into LNG? How much energy is lost to the conversion process? I would prefer to see it as a percentage like BTUs in = BTUs out at the point when the LNG is turned back in to gas. Of course there are other costs like transportation and storage that should be included if we want to compare pipeline gas to LNG but it looks like using LNG is a much more carbon intense process than natural gas alone.
I don't have any numbers either but surely LNG is much more carbon and methane intensive than plain natgas. But in any case both LNG and/or pipeline imports are a very bad idea strategically, as any study of military history can attest. Solar and wind should be deployed in mass to achieve energy independemce even if AGW is not a pressing concern. And if/when renewables are incorporated into defense budgets, they will actually happen.
Thanks oren,
I remember years ago when oil was over $110 that there was a post on the Oil Drum website that estimate that you loose between 20%-25% of the BTU energy in the conversion process. Add in transportation and storage and you can see things get uneconomical when natural gas goes over $7 mcf.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2573 on: July 14, 2018, 08:36:11 PM »
‘We Will Be Waiting’: Tribe Says Keystone XL Construction Is Not Welcome
The controversial oil pipeline would cross the Cheyenne River near a reservation, and the tribe is fighting it. TransCanada plans to bring in equipment this month.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13072018/keystone-xl-pipeline-native-american-resistance-oil-spill-cheyenne-river-sioux-dakota-access-transcanada
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2574 on: July 17, 2018, 06:53:04 PM »
ExxonMobile:  “We’re advancing auto efficiency with technology like the Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition. This mechanism can help increase fuel economy by 30% while lowering emissions. #TechTuesday”
https://twitter.com/exxonmobil/status/1019235548052025345

No_Dumbies: “lowering emissions by 30% leaves 70% emmissions in an era that is demanding negative emissions via uptake systems that heal and upcycle .. get with the future. #greennewdeal”
https://twitter.com/_touch_update_/status/1019236219828436992


(Honestly, posted the above mostly for this GIF:  pic.twitter.com/lTaN0tggO0  )  ;D
Or here:  https://twitter.com/teslabull/status/1019249321366077440
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2575 on: July 26, 2018, 05:49:30 PM »
Shell announces $25 billion share buyback program as quarterly profits miss estimates

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/shell-earnings-net-profit-comes-in-at-xxx.html

I think XOM reports this week.  The buybacks in the oil patch remind me of the buybacks by the US banks from mid 2007 (when things started to look iffy) right up through mid 2008 when shit was already starting to hit the fan.  The banks INSISTED that they could continue their buybacks.  THAT ..... didn't end so well.

Lately there have been a lot of articles discussing things like "oil at $200" or "oil at $150".  A LOT of bulls out there.  For me ..... that is NOT a good sign, especially when storm clouds continue to roll in.  Here is one lone sole discussing oil at $45 ......

The bulls are wrong — here's why oil could plummet to $45: Citi's top oil forecaster


Quote
'The bull argument is based on faulty analysis,' says Citi global head of commodities research Ed Morse

Morse goes on the describe two things not picked up by the bulls:  (1) technology has allowed the oil companies to be much more efficient with their capital in their capital spending budgets, and (2) bulls are overplaying the issue of diminishing returns from some of the oil fields.

Interesting article for any "oil bugs" out there....

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/the-bulls-are-wrong-heres-why-oil-could-plummet-to-us45-citis-top-oil-forecaster


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rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2576 on: July 27, 2018, 05:01:49 PM »
The current economic cycle is very long in the tooth, and the usual creaks and groans are starting to show (Chinese credit issues, car loan delinquencies etc.). The combination of a significant recession together with increasing usage of electric vehicles could bring home the long-term reality for the oil companies very fast.

Not only would their share prices crash, but their access to funding would be reduced. These things tend to take longer to happen than anyone expected, then happen much faster that anyone expected.

The irony is that the next few years could see both Tesla (just one company, not the whole EV industry) and XOM going into bankruptcy.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2577 on: July 29, 2018, 01:38:07 AM »
U.S.:  West Virginia

Federal appeals court delivers blow to Mountain Valley Pipeline
Quote
In what environmentalists called a major victory, a federal appeals court on Friday struck down two key decisions allowing a natural gas pipeline to slice through the Jefferson National Forest.

The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with the Sierra Club and other conservation groups that challenged approvals by the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management for a 3.6-mile segment of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.
...
During oral arguments in May, a three-judge panel raised pointed questions about the Forest Service’s acceptance of Mountain Valley’s assurances that it could control erosion and sediment caused by running a 42-inch diameter buried pipeline along steep mountainsides.

“MVP’s proposed project would be the largest pipeline of its kind to cross the Jefferson National Forest,” Judge Stephanie Thacker wrote in the opinion.

“American citizens understandably place their trust in the Forest Service to protect and preserve this country’s forests, and they deserve more than silent acquiescence to a pipeline company’s justification for upending large swaths of national forest lands.”

Although the court’s decision was tailored to a small section of the 303-mile pipeline, opponents said it could have implications beyond the national forest.

Joining Thacker in the 44-page opinion were Chief Judge Roger Gregory and Judge William Traxler; the same trio is currently considering another case in which a key approval by Virginia’s State Water Control Board is under attack.

A similar ruling in that case “could mean trouble for the MVP’s route in the entirety of Virginia,” the Sierra Club said in a statement. ...
https://www.roanoke.com/news/local/federal-appeals-court-delivers-blow-to-mountain-valley-pipeline/article_b8b6efd4-ddb7-529b-aee9-a5c5ecebb571.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2578 on: July 30, 2018, 01:04:00 AM »
“The market, looking at the numbers, clearly didn’t know or expect the downtime” at Exxon’s refineries, said Doug Leggate, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, during a call with company management. “You guys obviously did.”

Big Oil Leaves Analysts Fuming About Being in the Dark on Refinery Outages
Quote
Darren Woods, Ben van Beurden and Mike Wirth, three of the world’s most powerful oil executives, forged their reputations by efficiently managing razor-thin margins at their companies’ refineries.

You wouldn’t know it, though, given their latest earnings results.

Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp., the companies they lead, all missed earnings estimates due to issues with their downstream units. At a time when dedicated refiners such as Phillips 66 and Valero Energy Corp. have become the rock stars of the earnings season, the integrated oil majors are struggling to meet optimistic estimates largely based on rising crude prices. ...
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/big-oil-leaves-analysts-fuming-230134222.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2579 on: July 30, 2018, 03:57:14 PM »
Who gives a damn about fuming analysts and short term market movements? I don't, when there are huge piles of faeces lying about.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jul/30/america-spends-over-20bn-per-year-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies-abolish-them

The fossil fuel industry owns the GOP
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The OCI report noted that the Obama administration actually proposed to eliminate 60% of federal fossil fuel industry subsidies, but that proposal went nowhere for one obvious reason:

In the 2015-2016 election cycle oil, gas, and coal companies spent $354 million in campaign contributions and lobbying and received $29.4 billion in federal subsidies in total over those same years - an 8,200% return on investment.

Of those fossil fuel industry contributions to political campaigns, 88% went to Republican politicians. As a result, 97% of House Republicans oppose taxing carbon pollution, and the Trump administration is looking into every possible scheme to further prop up the dying coal industry. The GOP might as well rebrand itself as the Grand Oil Party.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2018, 04:30:42 PM by gerontocrat »
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sesyf

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2580 on: July 31, 2018, 08:53:43 PM »
Not sure if people follow the PeakOilBarrel pages, recently there was interesting post by dr Minq Li from University of Utah where conclusin seems to be that globally oil production reaches the maximum around 2021. Individual countries can go much further, 40’s etc.

Cannot say if the evaluations are too optimistic or otherwise, using official sources etc, but if interested here is the link...
http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-oil-2018-2050-world-energy-annual-report-part-2/

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2581 on: July 31, 2018, 09:38:03 PM »
If you see how big the part "rest of the world " is today. That means that the number of countries that is producing oil will go down fast. And they will have to go look for oil with the small number of players that remain .That could be good news for electrical cars in the future. If they can find the resources to build them.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2582 on: July 31, 2018, 09:47:37 PM »
And you need fossil fuels (oil&gas) to make most plastics.

From last year:
"Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made"
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1700782.full
Quote
We estimate that 8300 million metric tons (Mt) as of virgin plastics have been produced to date. As of 2015, approximately 6300 Mt of plastic waste had been generated, around 9% of which had been recycled, 12% was incinerated, and 79% was accumulated in landfills or the natural environment. If current production and waste management trends continue, roughly 12,000 Mt of plastic waste will be in landfills or in the natural environment by 2050.

When push come to shove we need plastic more than we need (more) transportation fuel.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2583 on: August 01, 2018, 05:11:24 PM »
Mr. Exxon is now looking like he may have had a few pints too many last night.  It has now broken its intermediate trend line .... and $60 is now in its future.

Oil inventories were up this week .... and the oil patch companies in general are poised for weakness.  I wonder what all those oil analysts that have been pumping up Exxon are thinking?

Anything is possible in the SHORT RUN ..... but my dinner from my friend (Exxon $60 before $90) is looking better and better.  I won’t dance on his grave yet .... but I will warm up the music.

One of the GAZILLION things I don’t know is .... will Exxon get down to $30 - $35 before finding some sort of “bottom”.  It’s too early for me to see that far ahead ... but the chips are starting to stack up in that direction.

The fundamentals on oil continue to look horrible ... and the fundamentals on (1) electric vehicles of all kinds, and  (2) renewable power, especially solar and batteries, continues to look better and better.

It’s almost like the two issues are related to one another.🤫
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 06:01:41 PM by Buddy »
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2584 on: August 01, 2018, 06:14:40 PM »
While plastics are needed for a variety of purposes, the total oil production to make all the plastics, if the 8300 million Mt is correct, is equivalent to about 58 billion barrels of oil. This is a little over 1/2 of the current annual oil production for all the plastics ever made. Plastics aren't driving oil extraction. 


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2585 on: August 01, 2018, 06:39:51 PM »
U.S.:  7 States Urge Pipeline Regulators to Pay Attention to Climate Change
FERC is considering revising how it approves natural gas pipeline projects. These states want it to focus more on costs to the environment and consumers.
Quote
New natural gas pipelines may not be needed and may not justify damage to the environment, the attorneys general of seven states and the District of Columbia argue in comments filed Wednesday with federal regulators in charge of pipeline approvals.

The comments came in response to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's request in April for comments on whether the commission should revise its current policy for pipeline approvals, set in 1999.

Since 1999, FERC has approved approximately 400 natural gas pipeline projects while rejecting only two. Pipelines built over that time have added 180 billion cubic feet per day of pipeline capacity—nearly twice the average daily consumption of natural gas in the U.S. in January 2017 and greater than the peak of 137 billion cubic feet per day during the 2014 "Polar Vortex" cold snap, according to a 2017 report by the economic consulting firm Analysis Group. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26072018/ferc-natural-gas-pipeline-approval-states-environmental-economic-cost-climate-change
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2586 on: August 01, 2018, 06:43:12 PM »
U.S.:  Portland, Oregon

INDUSTRY ATTACK ON PORTLAND FOSSIL FUEL POLICY FAILS
Quote
Oregon Supreme Court Declines Review, Leaving in Place Oregon Court of Appeals Ruling in Favor of Portland’s Fossil Fuel Ordinance

July 31, 2018 (Portland, Ore.) — Today, a coalition of public interest groups celebrated news that opponents of Portland’s fossil fuel ordinance have failed in their efforts to overturn the City’s landmark law. In 2016, Portland’s City Council voted unanimously to prohibit new fossil fuel infrastructure such as oil and gas terminals. Last week, the Oregon Supreme Court declined to review a January 2018 ruling by the Oregon Court of Appeals that upheld the Constitutionality of Portland’s Fossil Fuel Terminal Zoning Amendments, dealing another blow to the legal challenges brought by the Portland Business Alliance and the oil industry.
...
“This is an important signal to other local governments that they can protect their residents from the many dangers of the fossil fuel industry,” said Nicholas Caleb, the Staff Attorney at the Center for Sustainable Economy. “This precedent will allow much greater creativity from cities and counties that want to create safe, healthy, and sustainable communities for their residents.”
https://sustainable-economy.org/industry-attack-on-portland-fossil-fuel-policy-fails/
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2587 on: August 01, 2018, 06:44:16 PM »
I agree mitch. My comment was kind of off the mark and belongs in another thread. 
On the topic of oil/plastic, it would be great if we invented a structural plastic that could replace our need for wood building products, cement, bricks, roofing etc.. If we enforced strict recycling rules this could reduce waste and emissions too.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2588 on: August 06, 2018, 07:37:23 PM »
U.S.:
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has ordered an immediate stop to construction of the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia.

U.S. halts construction on EQT West Virginia to Virginia Mountain Valley gas pipeline
Quote
(Reuters) - U.S. energy regulators have told EQT Corp and other companies building the $3.5-$3.7 billion Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia to stop all construction.

The action by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), in a filing on Friday, followed a July 27 order from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit that vacated decisions by the Department of the Interior's Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Department of Agriculture's Forest Service authorizing construction of Mountain Valley across federal lands.

That court decision was the most recent appeals court victory by the Sierra Club and other opponents of the pipeline. ...
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1KP0NF
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2589 on: August 06, 2018, 08:09:20 PM »
Well FERC only gave in when the legal defense failed. To paraphrase the Terminator, "We'll be back..."

Win some, lose some.
Aug. 6, 2018
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/split-ferc-approves-spire-pipeline-brushing-aside-self-dealing-concerns/529428/
Quote
The Republican majority on FERC, however, disagreed, writing that the affiliate relationship does not require it to more closely scrutinize the market need for a pipeline project.
...
Critics of the policy say it is too narrow and allows opportunities for "self-dealing" when the consumers of natural gas, like a local distribution company or power generator, are owned by the same company as the pipeline builders.

I remember a few months ago when a prestigious right wing magazine published a story that said the US energy markets are not and never will be a fair market, and that's a good thing.
They were right about the rigged part.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2590 on: August 10, 2018, 04:50:15 PM »
I'm going to go back to my friend who I made a bet with on ExxonMobil.  I bet him "$60 before $90".  He thought we would see $90 before $60.

I now think Exxon will see $35 before it ever sees $90.  I actually don't think Exxon will be a "survivor" in the coming "oil company wars".  There WILL BE SURVIVORS ...... but I think Exxon will get swallowed up by one of the better oil companies.

With China looking like it is continuing to slow ..... and commodities continuing to slide ..... and trade wars still heating up ...... and everyone jumping on the EV bandwagon (a SMALL BANDWAGON RIGHT NOW FOR SURE ..... but growing QUICKLY)..... Mr. Oil is not looking so hot.

Still the short term risk of Iran jamming up the shipping lanes ..... which would spike oil .... but absent that happening, oil is looking pretty sickly in the long term.





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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2591 on: August 10, 2018, 07:03:21 PM »
Buddy,
I don't doubt your long-term prognosis for Exxon, but seeing things as glum or great for the company at this time is one of perspective (something I 'totally' lack when it comes to the stock market).

Gif shows Exxon over the past week (loss), month (loss), year (even), five-years (slight loss), 40-years (strong gain).

Would I buy? No.  Would I trust my judgement? No!
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2592 on: August 11, 2018, 10:27:33 AM »
I believe that oil and gas companies have the problem that they lost part of their dominance on world economy, which means that they can't expect any more overaverage incomes. The 2008 peak starts to show it's impact because when investing, people remember that petrol is not anymore a cheap trusted source of energy. It probably doesn't need a high percentage of electricle vehicle to make the difference. Around me, people having an EV use it mainly as second car, and when the price of gasoline goes up, it becomes the 1st car. As the number of EV goes up, this provides a great load shift possibility to keep petrol prices in a reasonable frame. People also learned to reduce heating costs, use a wood stove, insulate... and there is no growth because new houses don't consume much or are heated mainly with electricity (heat pump...). The main growth markets are Asia, Africa and South America, where Exxon is not a native company.

Petrol is still very cheap, next time you buy gasoline, compare the liter price with beverages in the shop.

Long term tendences don't provide any information about short term stock markets, and don't protect of bad management (nor stimulate good managment). Import taxes might be a way to reduce the use of fossil fuels, but I'd prefer efficiency gains or CO2 taxes.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2593 on: August 11, 2018, 03:09:47 PM »
WTI prices climb to $67.63 per barrel on August 10, which provides us with absolutely no clue for the future of oil in the real economy.

All commodity prices are volatile and wild price swings tell us nothing about underlying trends in an industry. Smarter people than me make billions of dollars exploiting this truth about commodities, playing in the futures markets.

A rapid collapse of the price of a commodity does not mean the permanent demise of that industry just as ridiculous spikes in the price do not herald improving long term prospects.

Meanwhile, oil consumption continues to steadily rise.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_oil_consumption

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2594 on: August 11, 2018, 03:36:31 PM »
Increased fracking in the US and elsewhere (like China) will continue to keep a "ceiling" on the price of oil.  Those who refuse to "see" the LONG TERM TREND in price of oil, apparently are not aware of BOTH the demand side AND the supply side.

The supply side is now preventing a spike in prices.  In a couple of years ..... 2 - 3 ..... it will be joined by the DEMAND SIDE as peak production hits, and the continuing move to EV's, continued move to renewables, combined with the DOWNWARD move in the cost curve for renewables, push more and more people into making the economic move into renewables.  While it would have been great (and I believe the proper thing) to move to renewables MUCH EARLIER than we have ..... it is, what it is.  I deal in reality .... not what I WANT reality to be.

While the oil market would be subject to any "shock" such as the closing of the shipping lanes by Iran or others ..... ABSENT such a move, the LONG TERM TREND IN OIL IS STILL DOWN.

Oil Industry Tries To Take The Fracking Boom Global
https://www.wsj.com/articles/taking-the-fracking-boom-global-1529409963

China is getting better at fracking, the technology that sparked the US natural gas boom
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/china-is-getting-better-at-fracking-which-sparked-the-us-shale-boom.html

Hydraulic Fracturing Global Market 2018 Key Players,Share, Trend, Segmentation And Forecast To 2023
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/hydraulic-fracturing-global-market-2018-key-playersshare-trend-segmentation-and-forecast-to-2023-2018-07-13
Quote
China is expected to exponentially increase its shale gas production by 2018, which in turn is expected to drive the hydraulic fracturing market in the Asian region. Other countries are also expected to drive their shale gas production in the future to enhance their economic growth.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2595 on: August 11, 2018, 08:52:50 PM »
Increased fracking in the US and elsewhere (like China) will continue to keep a "ceiling" on the price of oil.  Those who refuse to "see" the LONG TERM TREND in price of oil, apparently are not aware of BOTH the demand side AND the supply side.

There is no such thing as a long term trend in the price of oil as the price of oil at any point in time is a function of the current supply, demand and stocks of oil. As these are always and ever changing the price of oil will always swing up and down.

There are long term trends in the production and consumption of oil and this long term trend has been up since oil was first discovered and continues till today.

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/


Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2596 on: August 11, 2018, 09:24:42 PM »
Increased fracking in the US and elsewhere (like China) will continue to keep a "ceiling" on the price of oil. 

Actually, as the world becomes increasingly reliant on unconventional sources for oil, this will tend to support a higher floor on the price of oil.  Currently 15% of oil comes from unconventional sources. This is still too low to anchor prices at their breakeven point but, as this percent rises it could.

How does this work?

If you look at the chart below, worldwide oil production is separated out by source with an average breakeven price calculated for each. When the price of a barrel of oil drops below $65 per barrel, many producers of unconventional oil begin to lose money and the supply from these sources will drop and tend to soften or halt the drop in oil prices. The supply of oil and the price will then tend to stabilize around the next highest breakeven price, in this case the breakeven point for heavy oil. As heavy oil accounts for 45% of worldwide production and has been a source of oil for decades, it should come as no surprise that when we look at the inflation adjusted oil price dating back to 1950, we find the price has rarely dropped below $30 per barrel since 1970. The cost structures of heavy oil producers serve to stabilize or set the floor for oil prices in the $35 to $45 range as these producers will move in and out of the market as the price for a barrel fluctuates. Since we never see worldwide oil demand fluctuate by 50%, heavy oil will continue to serve as an anchoring point for oil prices.

When or if unconventional sources become the major source of oil, the price floor will now be pegged by the cost structure of these higher cost products. Let's hope this never happens because we will be fracking the fuck out of everything.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 03:15:03 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2597 on: August 11, 2018, 09:39:40 PM »
the LONG TERM TREND IN OIL IS STILL DOWN.

Reminds me of a quote by Mark Twain who had taken ill in London in 1897. When contacted by a journalist from New York to inquire about his health as rumors were he was on his deathbed or had died Twain quipped.

"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2598 on: August 11, 2018, 10:06:47 PM »
Thank you SH. Oil consumption continues to rise steadily. Buddy - your "peak consumption due to EVs" thesis could be true in a decade, but not in 2-3 years as the total number of EVs expected to be in production is far too low.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2599 on: August 11, 2018, 10:47:34 PM »
But we can dream  ::)
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