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Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2700 on: September 30, 2018, 07:58:28 AM »
It sure is, SH. There's no fiction out there that trumps reality.
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2701 on: September 30, 2018, 09:49:28 AM »
If OPEC is right, time to chuck in the towel? Or contemplate Gandhi's thoughts on the necessity for civil disobedience ?
Whom would we disobey?


Get your throwing towels now, before prices spike due to trade sanctions with China. :(
Terry
Here, it is not civil disobedience that is needed (excepted if you feel that you are obliged to consume), but volontary simplicity.
Here is a place to start reading, haven't done it yet but it seems interesting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Gregg_(social_philosopher)

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2702 on: September 30, 2018, 10:12:50 AM »
That's a funny pic.

Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2703 on: September 30, 2018, 03:50:52 PM »
It's a couple of years old, from one of Kevin Anderson's lectures.
Still up to date though, unfortunately.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2704 on: September 30, 2018, 10:14:43 PM »
It's a couple of years old, from one of Kevin Anderson's lectures.
Still up to date though, unfortunately.

Kevin, my hero! I really want to take visit him sometime, but I fear that when he finds out that I spewed CO2 all the way across the atlantic when I flew to get there, he would shame me.

There is very little appetite for the brutally realistic information Kevin Anderson espouses.
big time oops

Hefaistos

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2705 on: October 01, 2018, 06:51:02 AM »
If OPEC is right, time to chuck in the towel? Or contemplate Gandhi's thoughts on the necessity for civil disobedience ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/23/opec-predicts-massive-rise-in-oil-production-over-next-five-years

Opec predicts massive rise in oil production over next five years
Increasing demand from airlines will more than offset reductions from electric cars


Quote
Opec expects global oil demand to reach nearly 112m barrels per day by 2040, driven by transportation and petrochemicals. That is up from almost 100m today and higher than last year’s projection.

Oil supply crunch will be the result.
"...a new report from Wood Mackenzie. The report concludes that a supply gap could emerge in the mid-2020s as demand rises at a time when too few new sources of supply are coming online.
By 2030, there could be a supply shortfall on the order of 3 million barrels per day (mb/d), WoodMac argues. By 2035, it balloons to 7 mb/d, and by 2040, it reaches 12 mb/d."

Forget about 1.5C, 2.0C is locked in.
https://www.rt.com/business/439990-inevitable-oil-supply-crunch/
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 11:14:09 AM by Hefaistos »

Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2706 on: October 01, 2018, 07:17:04 AM »
It's a couple of years old, from one of Kevin Anderson's lectures.
Still up to date though, unfortunately.

Kevin, my hero! I really want to take visit him sometime, but I fear that when he finds out that I spewed CO2 all the way across the atlantic when I flew to get there, he would shame me.

There is very little appetite for the brutally realistic information Kevin Anderson espouses.
He probably would. :)
But he always seems very polite despite his blunt realism. I like that. And I actually thought about cycling down to Gothenburg just to try to say thanks in person. That would've been a 300km trip so I never followed through. :(
http://www.web.cemus.se/the-swedish-carbon-cycle/
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Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2707 on: October 01, 2018, 07:43:33 AM »
Cross post, into the correct thread.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/why-oil-forecasts-keep-getting-it-wrong/ar-AAADt7d
Quote
Demand, in fact, has far exceeded expectations. Buoyed by robust economic growth, markets last month consumed 100 million barrels per day of oil, 400,000 more than were produced.

"The supply side, if anything, has outperformed expectations: In the last year, U.S. shale production growth has been 1.7 million barrels per day – that by itself should be enough to tank oil prices," says Steven Kopits, managing director of Princeton Energy Advisors. "Demand is very strong. And we don't have any real time metrics for global demand."

Quote
But one thing continuing to guide predictions will be the dwindling gap between the amount of oil being produced and the undiminished pace of consumption.

"There's been no economic slowdown, and no one's got spare barrels sitting around that can replace the million barrels or so that are going to go off the market," McTeague says. "One million barrels per day is a big number – it's substantial. To use the British expression, Mind the gap."

What a wonderful green world, buzy mitigating. Mitigating oil production that is, at least Russia seems to have spare capacity. They will be happy to fill that gap. Reply #2721 above:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg174021.html#msg174021
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2708 on: October 01, 2018, 05:50:26 PM »
If OPEC is right, time to chuck in the towel? Or contemplate Gandhi's thoughts on the necessity for civil disobedience ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/23/opec-predicts-massive-rise-in-oil-production-over-next-five-years

Opec predicts massive rise in oil production over next five years
Increasing demand from airlines will more than offset reductions from electric cars


Quote
Opec expects global oil demand to reach nearly 112m barrels per day by 2040, driven by transportation and petrochemicals. That is up from almost 100m today and higher than last year’s projection.

Oil supply crunch will be the result.
"...a new report from Wood Mackenzie. The report concludes that a supply gap could emerge in the mid-2020s as demand rises at a time when too few new sources of supply are coming online.
By 2030, there could be a supply shortfall on the order of 3 million barrels per day (mb/d), WoodMac argues. By 2035, it balloons to 7 mb/d, and by 2040, it reaches 12 mb/d."

Forget about 1.5C, 2.0C is locked in.
https://www.rt.com/business/439990-inevitable-oil-supply-crunch/

And those supply shortfalls will drive the price so high that every single exotic source of oil imaginable will be profitable and exploited.

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2709 on: October 01, 2018, 06:06:52 PM »
And those supply shortfalls will drive the price so high that every single exotic source of oil imaginable will be profitable and exploited.
This doesn't have to be true. The time to market for an oil project is too long for short term projects, so there need to be some garantie of long term high prices before projects are restarted.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2710 on: October 01, 2018, 09:26:21 PM »
Oil surges above $75 to the highest level since November 2014
Quote
U.S. crude prices surged on Monday, hitting a nearly four-year high on signs that sanctions are shrinking Iranian crude exports and as North American trade tensions ease.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Monday's session up $2.05, or 2.8 percent, at $75.30, its best closing prices since Nov. 24, 2014. WTI hit a session high of $75.48, breaking through this year's intraday peak in July. International benchmark Brent crude was last up $2.31, or 2.8 percent, at $85.04, having hit its highest since November 2014.
...
U.S. sanctions on Iran, OPEC's third biggest oil producer, are expected to wipe roughly 1 million barrels a day off the market by the end of the year.  John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Securities, says $100 a barrel oil now looks possible, if not inevitable. He noted that benchmark Oman oil on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange — which reflects the cost of sending Saudi crude to Asia — recently spiked above $90 a barrel.

"It almost signaled a psychological panic-type buying," he told CNBC. "We're moving into a world where you have lower inventories, lower spare capacity, less protection for buyers, and this kind of sent a shot across the bow."

However, rising oil prices threaten to cut oil demand in emerging economies.

"This could trigger inflation. This could trigger substitution of other fuels for energy," Driscoll said. "It ultimately will have a long-term effect on demand. We'll be back into that cycle of boom-bust.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/us-crude-surges-above-75-to-the-highest-level-since-november-2014.html
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2711 on: October 01, 2018, 10:16:28 PM »
A high oil price is good because it encourages people to purchase high-MPG vehicles, including EVs. OTOH it is bad because it encourages producers to make capital expenditures that will ultimately make oil more available and/or cheaper. All in all I'm not sure which is better, a high or low price.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2712 on: October 01, 2018, 10:45:46 PM »
A high oil price is good because it encourages people to purchase high-MPG vehicles, including EVs. OTOH it is bad because it encourages producers to make capital expenditures that will ultimately make oil more available and/or cheaper. All in all I'm not sure which is better, a high or low price.

As has been mentioned by others, the uncertainty of the high prices may delay oil reinvestment.  No doubt there will be price swings up and down, given the global political challenges.  We will see if people get tired enough of (temporary?) price hikes that they increase the tide to EVs.  But as EVs become more available, the consumer will have more of a choice than the entrenched oil companies.  Which will have more of a force?
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magnamentis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2713 on: October 02, 2018, 12:26:04 AM »
A high oil price is good because it encourages people to purchase high-MPG vehicles, including EVs. OTOH it is bad because it encourages producers to make capital expenditures that will ultimately make oil more available and/or cheaper. All in all I'm not sure which is better, a high or low price.

there we go again with positive and negative feedbacks that are so hard to ultimately rate and know which one will have the bigger impact.

almost like with the sea-ice ;) ;)

and then there are even many more factors than the obvious ones in both cases.

somehow i think that there will be a shift in public / political awareness and it could even happen very rapidly, at least hope dies last.

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2714 on: October 02, 2018, 12:41:00 AM »
Oil surges above $75 to the highest level since November 2014
Quote

However, rising oil prices threaten to cut oil demand in emerging economies.

"This could trigger inflation. This could trigger substitution of other fuels for energy," Driscoll said. "It ultimately will have a long-term effect on demand. We'll be back into that cycle of boom-bust.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/us-crude-surges-above-75-to-the-highest-level-since-november-2014.html



While it very well could contribute to inflation and a boom bust cycle, the long term demand for oil will continue to be steadily up.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2715 on: October 02, 2018, 03:29:24 AM »

 

While it very well could contribute to inflation and a boom bust cycle, the long term demand for oil will continue to be steadily up.

The chart shows a tight relationship between production and consumption--which are closely related for market items in general.
The overall upward trend doesn't really imply future trends.  The world was building more and more horse-drawn carriages, until they all suddenly became obsolete.  Technological advances can radically alter markets.

Csnavywx

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2716 on: October 02, 2018, 05:03:45 AM »
A high oil price is good because it encourages people to purchase high-MPG vehicles, including EVs. OTOH it is bad because it encourages producers to make capital expenditures that will ultimately make oil more available and/or cheaper. All in all I'm not sure which is better, a high or low price.

As has been mentioned by others, the uncertainty of the high prices may delay oil reinvestment.  No doubt there will be price swings up and down, given the global political challenges.  We will see if people get tired enough of (temporary?) price hikes that they increase the tide to EVs.  But as EVs become more available, the consumer will have more of a choice than the entrenched oil companies.  Which will have more of a force?

There was a ton of production shut in after the price crashed in 2014. A ton of investment was made up to that point, though. This shut-in/mothballed production is relatively easy to bring online, so I wouldn't expect prices to recover to where they were pre-crash. You never know, though.

In any case, as the old adage goes, the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices.

Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2717 on: October 02, 2018, 08:35:28 AM »
Oil surges above $75 to the highest level since November 2014
Quote

However, rising oil prices threaten to cut oil demand in emerging economies.

"This could trigger inflation. This could trigger substitution of other fuels for energy," Driscoll said. "It ultimately will have a long-term effect on demand. We'll be back into that cycle of boom-bust.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/us-crude-surges-above-75-to-the-highest-level-since-november-2014.html



While it very well could contribute to inflation and a boom bust cycle, the long term demand for oil will continue to be steadily up.

Probably SH, not everything goes into fuelling cars either, maybe only half of it. EIA's forecast is still on. Here's a snippet from their September summary:
Quote
Global oil demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged at 1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to higher prices.
Non-OECD demand remains resilient but there is a risk to the 2019 outlook from currency depreciation and trade disputes. Demand in China and India combined will grow by 910 kb/d in 2018, but the pace slows to 640 kb/d in 2019.
Global supply in August reached a record 100 mb/d as higher output from OPEC offset seasonal declines from non-OPEC. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply was up 2.6 mb/d y-o-y, led by the US. Non-OPEC production will grow by 2 mb/d in 2018 and 1.8 mb/d in 2019.

We've also been into peak oil for more than a decade now, former statements by experts can be read with a smile (or not):
Quote
From “Peak Oil and Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition,” Whiskey and Gunpowder (8/25/06), by Byron King, quoting Bakhtiari directly from an email:

    "The four Transition periods (T1, T2, T3, and T4) will roughly span the 2006-2020 era. Each Transition [will] cover, on average, three to four years. The major palpable difference between the four Ts is their respective gradient of oil output decline -- very small for T1, perceptible for T2, remarkable in T3, and rather steep for T4. In fact, this gradation in decline is a genuine blessing for those having to cope and adapt.

    "It should be borne in mind that these four Ts are only an overall theoretical structure for future global oil output. The structure is thus so orderly because [it is] predicted with 'Pre-Peak' methods, 'Pre-Peak' assumptions, and [a] 'Pre-Peak' set of rules.

    "The problem is that we now are in 'Post-Peak' mode, and that none of [the] above applies anymore.

    "The fact of being in 'Post-Peak' will bring about explosive disruptions we know little about, and which are extremely difficult to foresee. And the shock waves from these explosions rippling throughout the financial and industrial infrastructure could have myriad unintended consequences for which we have no precedent and little experience.

    "So the only Transition we can see rather clearly (or rather, we hope to be able to comprehend) is T1. It is clear that T1 will witness the tilting of the 'Oil Demand' and 'Oil Supply' scales -- with the former dominant at the onset and the latter commanding toward the close (say, by 2009 or 2010).

Sweden had it's peak oil in the 70's, here our first doctor on peak oil, from 2007:
http://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A169774&dswid=8348
Quote
Abstract [en]

Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important.

The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter.

A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR).

However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf.

The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production.

In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.
He's in this "environmentally responsible" company now:
http://www.tethysoil.com/en/corporate-governance/management
« Last Edit: October 02, 2018, 08:44:15 AM by Sleepy »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2718 on: October 02, 2018, 12:22:20 PM »
The "peak oil" thing was sort of right when looking at conventional oil. But then Tar Sands and Fracking appeared. Weren't we lucky!
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Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2719 on: October 02, 2018, 12:36:29 PM »
We are still lucky if we consdier the amount of untapped shale in Russia.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2720 on: October 02, 2018, 05:48:05 PM »
Looks like a better-than-even chance for a warmer than average winter in the US.  Particularly in the Northeast, this will mean less gas and oil heat needed.

Map is for December-Jan-Feb.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2721 on: October 02, 2018, 05:56:56 PM »
Looks like a better-than-even chance for a warmer than average winter in the US.  Particularly in the Northeast, this will mean less gas and oil heat needed.

Map is for December-Jan-Feb.
The world ends at the 49th parallel. They add Alaska as an afterthought. Yet another manifestation of "America First".
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2722 on: October 02, 2018, 06:12:45 PM »

The world ends at the 49th parallel. They add Alaska as an afterthought. Yet another manifestation of "America First".

That's always bugged me about the National Weather Service.  The models have to produce results for areas far north of the border.  Why just throw away that information rather than share it?  Damned unneighborly.  Yet another thing for Americans like me to apologize for.

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2723 on: October 02, 2018, 08:10:19 PM »
Alaska, Washington and Oregon apparently will see high temperatures, but nobody lives there.
Temperatures in Southern California and Arizona will be warm, but winters are generally too warm to require much heating anyway.
Florida and Georgia's temperatures are flat, but not much energy is consumed keeping residences warm in winter in that part of the world.


The map is informative, but Canadians spend more for cooling in the summer than they do for heating in the winter.
Terry


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2724 on: October 04, 2018, 02:55:03 PM »
IEA chief says big producers are failing to keep oil prices in check
Quote
The head of the International Energy Agency is calling on oil producing countries to ramp up output further, saying raises in recent months had failed to rein in crude prices.
...
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has risen to a four-year high of $86 a barrel this week — up almost $9 since the beginning of September.  This comes even as Khalid Al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said oil output has reached 10.7m barrels a day — equal to its highest level on record. Russia too has pledged further increases to its output, which has already reached a post-Soviet record of close to 11.4m b/d.

Oil prices have been rising as US sanctions against Iran’s energy sector already curb imports from the Opec nation, even before the restrictions formally take effect in November.  Energy traders and analysts have raised questions about the ability of big producers to compensate for losses not just from Iran but Venezuela too, where production is spiralling lower.

US president Donald Trump has blasted Opec countries on Twitter, demanding they raise production to keep prices in check. The US like other big consumer countries is worried about the impact on domestic fuel prices.

While oil producer countries might benefit from higher prices today as their governments earn more from energy exports, Mr Birol said these levels will ultimately hurt consumer nations.  “Higher energy prices might seem to be good news for exporters today but tomorrow it will hurt their economies as well because of lower demand growth,” said Mr Birol.

Big buyers of foreign oil, including emerging economies in Asia, were already under currency pressure, meaning it is more expensive to import crude.  Mr Birol said his hope was that global producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and others inside and outside the Opec cartel would be able to adequately raise production.

But Mr Birol acknowledged that “the energy market today is very different to several years ago”. The last time Saudi Arabia was at 10.7m b/d was in November 2016 when prices were below $60 a barrel.  This suggests he believes any impact from higher production could be limited. ...
https://www.ft.com/content/08e36182-c7c9-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2725 on: October 04, 2018, 04:36:39 PM »
Quote
While oil producer countries might benefit from higher prices today as their governments earn more from energy exports, Mr Birol said these levels will ultimately hurt consumer nations.  “Higher energy prices might seem to be good news for exporters today but tomorrow it will hurt their economies as well because of lower demand growth,” said Mr Birol.

Already happening.  Asia has been on a steeper slowdown over the past couple of years ..... and the US economy PEAKED last fall (about a year ago).  US continues on a mild slowdown .... but things like TARIFFS and HIGH OIL PRICES will increase the rate of the slowdown.

A tariff is basically a TAX PAID BY CONSUMERS ..... and higher oil prices WORK JUST LIKE A TAX ON ALL CONSUMERS.  So the economy will take a hit.... it is BAKED INTO THE CAKE WE WILL EAT TOMMORROW (coming months).

China isn't going to do anything to lower tariffs on the US until AFTER the US election.  And if Donnie thinks China is just going to "roll over" ..... I have a downhill ski resort next to Mar a Lago I will sell him.   ;)

A couple of other "interesting things" I am watching:  (1) Shanghai market is closed all week for a holiday this week and won't reopen until this coming Monday.  There is a significant chance that Shanghai (Chinese) markets take a "hit" with the ongoing tariff battles with the US. Early this year I said one of the things to watch was a likely "downturn" in the US and China that may bottom out by mid October.  Well..... that "timing" was NOT a good call (because we certainly haven't bottomed)... but I expect the US market to head south as well as the Chinese market in coming months.

(2)  Coal looks like it is putting in an "intermediate high" (which is actually a INTERMEDIATE COUNTER TREND RALLY UP within a LONG TERM TREND DOWN.

That is "normal" for commodities .... especially oil and coal .... to weaken as economies weaken.

Still looking to win my bet with my friend regarding Exxon/Mobil stock call of $60 before $90...

 





FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2726 on: October 04, 2018, 06:46:01 PM »
This could be filed in the "Gee ... no kidding?" file.  Investment banks are NOT exactly the most "prophetic" companies on the planet (there is a reason for that .... but I won't go into that here).

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/jpmorgan-now-forecasting-trade-war-140253587.html

JPMorgan initiated a new base case for the trade war — tariffs on all trade flowing between China and the USA.

Quote
"A full-blown trade war becomes our new base case scenario for 2019," a note from analysts including Pedro Martins Junior and Rajiv Batra said.
This, alongside domestic factors, could push Chinese stocks lower.

The Trump administration is likely to proceed with tariffs on all China's imports into the US by some point next year, according to an analysis by JPMorgan published this week. If the prediction comes true, it could spell trouble for Chinese stock markets.

"We now assume US-China trade war enters Phase III in 2019, resulting in tariffs on all +$500bn of imports from China," the note, by analysts including Pedro Martins Junior and Rajiv Batra, said.

So far, the Trump administration has placed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, affecting more than 5,000 products. The president has made clear he is willing to "Go to 500" — a colloquial term for placing tariffs on all goods imported to the US from China.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2727 on: October 04, 2018, 07:23:05 PM »
Well, high prices are probably a sign of peak oil. At the current price, I'm pretty sure that producing countries produce as much as they can. High prices mean :
- new cars have smaller motors or are EV, and they will stay on the road for 10 years
- people will prefer an heat pump to an oil heating, and it stays for 20 years
- some business go bankrupt because of the high oil prices, and they don't come back
- companies get used to video conferences instead of air flight (can you imagine that Nestle already had factories in the US and in Australia before WWII ? I wonder how they could manage that without internet, without fax, without air travel...)
- people insulate their houses, and insulation will stay for 20 years
and so on.

There was a comment that the 1974 oil crisis delayed the peak oil because it was a start for energy efficiency and countries diversified their energy sources.

Tar sand and shale oil is another delay stuff, but it require so much energy, water... that it can't grow as fast as conventional oil will sometimes go down. Maybe you heard of the Seneca Cliff, it's the idea that it takes much more time to build something than to look it go down. Typical example are Kodak, Panam... Peak oil could work the same way. The sad thing with tar sand and shale oil is that there is enough oil to support climate change, but coal also does the job.

Many people believe in peak demand, not me because of Jevons paradox. Oil is such a dense energy source that it will be used until the last drop. The only way to fight Jevons paradox is to have prices growing faster than efficiency.

There was a comment that production and consumption grow very close to one another. This is very normal because storage is complicated. Overproduction reduces prices which increases consumption, underproduction increases prices which reduces consumption. If you make a graph to compare prices and production, you really see that extra production comes to late to enjoy high prices.

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2728 on: October 04, 2018, 07:25:56 PM »
Extra comment, shale oil and tar sand react faster when prices go up and down.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2729 on: October 05, 2018, 09:52:20 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2730 on: October 06, 2018, 05:07:12 PM »
Tesla big battery claims its first major fossil fuel victim
October 5
Quote
Elon Musk’s crusade to rid the world of fossil fuels and lead the transition to clean energy took a small but significant step forward this week, when the Australian Energy Market Operator decided to put an end to a market that has been rorted outrageously by fossil fuel generators in recent years.

It’s a highly technical change in the complex world of managing Australia’s largest machine – the electricity grid. But it is significant, because it highlights just how quickly new technologies such as batteries are changing the way grids are being managed, and making them smarter, faster, cleaner, and cheaper.

Decades-old assumptions about how the grid should be managed, using old technologies, are now being challenged. And some of the market rorts built up over time by the energy incumbents are slowly being swept away (hopefully not to be replaced by new ruses invented by new players).

AEMO advised energy market players this week that it was bringing to an end the three-year-old requirement for 35MW of local regulation frequency and ancillary services to be provided in South Australia when there was risk of the state’s grid separating from the rest of the national grid.

This contingency was introduced in late 2015, and was designed to ensure, says Christian Schaefer, AEMO’s head of system capability, that the state’s grid – with a high percentage of renewables – could operate safely and securely by itself. Such isolation events were expected to be frequent given the planned upgrades and maintenance of the main link to Victoria.

Until the Tesla big battery was put into service last December, that market had been rorted outrageously by the previous sole providers of FCAS – several major gas generators – who ensured the price of FCAS in that state rose nearly 100-fold to the market cap of $14,000/MWh when AEMO made the precautionary call for local back up.

That would send the cost of FCAS for such events up to $6 million a day. It happened almost every time the constraint was imposed and total costs from several dozen such events totalled $109 million in 2016 and 2017, with the costs passed on to wind farms and other big energy consumers.

That was until the Tesla big battery arrived and smashed the gas cartel, because it meant that the gas generators could no longer control the price of that service.


The total cost in 2018 is projected by AEMO to be just $3.6 million. That also reflects a big decline in the number of occasions that the constraint was imposed, but also because the presence of the battery means prices can’t be gamed when it is imposed.

Now it seems that AEMO is satisfied that the presence of the Tesla big battery, along with its new system strength rules to ensure a minimum amount of gas generation at any one time, means that it no longer needs to impose the market constraint. In effect, the Tesla big battery spoiled the party, and now the party is over. ...
https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-claims-its-first-major-fossil-fuel-victim-30614/

Cross-post in Battery thread.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2731 on: October 09, 2018, 09:21:30 PM »
Why batteries will lead to the death of oil.

“This Tesla effect is a major trend and has really changed consumers’ perception of things that are battery driven and their capabilities.”

The ‘Tesla Effect’ is starting to extend from legacy carmakers to the oil industry
Quote
“Essentially, the big issue is the so-called “Tesla Effect,” the general “End of the Oil Age” theme that is a problem for these (oil) stocks. As the oil price goes up, especially to the levels we’re at now and potentially beyond, it’s almost as if the Tesla Effect could be exacerbated by the potential for higher oil prices to accelerate the end of the Oil Age. The Tesla Effect is the overall concept that (while) the 20th century was driven by oil, the 21st century will be driven by electricity. There’s a 30-year transition, and were somewhere probably 10 years into that transition. Ultimately, (the) terminal value of oil has been severely affected by the potential for us to change behavior,” the analyst said. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-effect-legacy-carmakers-oil-industry/
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2732 on: October 10, 2018, 02:13:15 AM »
Oilprice says that the plastics industry is ramping up and oil as a feedstock for the chemical industry will be increasing even as oil for transportation is tapering down.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Next-Pillar-Of-Oil-Demand-Growth.html

Don't sell those shares of Exxon just yet.
Terry

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2733 on: October 10, 2018, 06:39:21 AM »
Plastics and other petro derived material production is a very small fraction of transportation use.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2734 on: October 10, 2018, 08:08:23 AM »
Road transport use of oil is less than 50% within the EU.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2735 on: October 10, 2018, 06:01:36 PM »
Plastics and other petro derived material production is a very small fraction of transportation use.

sidd

a swing and a miss. try again
big time oops

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2736 on: October 10, 2018, 07:54:09 PM »
Road transport use of oil is less than 50% within the EU.
This graph brings more questions than answers. What part is for trucks and what is for cars ? Where are diesel railroads ? Is considered air traffic only EU internal flights ? I always heard that air transport is so bad for climate change, here, it doesn't look that way.

If you look closely, you get 30% that is not transport, and about half of it is for non energy use. How much of it is for plastic ? What is non energy use (lubricant oil for the motor, is it in transportation? than you have paints, medications, solvent)?

Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2737 on: October 10, 2018, 08:54:04 PM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2738 on: October 11, 2018, 09:48:55 AM »
Extended life for Snorre
http://www.npd.no/en/news/News/2018/Extended-life-for-Snorre/
Quote
Equinor has received consent to continue use of the Snorre A and Snorre B facilities through 2040.
...
The original oil reserves were 307 million standard cubic metres of oil (1929 million barrels). The remaining oil reserves are estimated at 94 million cubic metres (590 million barrels).
...
SEP comprises installation of six well templates with 24 wells that will be tied back to the Snorre A platform. The plan includes an option for further expansion with additional well templates. SEP will increase recovery from the Snorre field by about 32 million standard cubic metres of oil (200 million barrels), thus raising the field’s recovery rate from 46 per cent to 51 per cent. When production started on Snorre, the expected field life was up to 2011-2014. With the contribution from SEP, calculations show that the field can have profitable production all the way through 2040.

Edit; might as well add this as well.
http://www.npd.no/en/news/News/2018/New-deep-sea-mineral-deposits/
Quote
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate just concluded a successful three-week data acquisition expedition on the Mohn’s ridge in the western part of the Norwegian Sea.

The Mohn’s ridge is a seafloor spreading ridge, separating two oceanic plates, and the objective of the expedition was to investigate the possible existence of mineral resource deposits in this area. The NPD has identified a large area of sulphide minerals, that was previously unknown. The deposits could include important industrial metals such as copper, zinc, cobalt, nickel, vanadium, wolfram and silver.

The NPD has been assigned the task of proving and mapping deep sea minerals after the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy was given administrative responsibility for mineral deposits on the Norwegian continental shelf.

During this year’s expedition, the NPD surveyed an area of 90 km x 35 km centrally located over the spreading ridge, where water depths vary between 1200 and 3500 metres. The expedition was conducted with the Seabed Worker vessel, which is owned by Swire Seabed AS.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 09:56:18 AM by Sleepy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2739 on: October 12, 2018, 02:11:02 AM »
From the Onion (satire):

ExxonMobil CEO Depressed After Realizing Earth Could End Before They Finish Extracting All The Oil
https://www.theonion.com/exxonmobil-ceo-depressed-after-realizing-earth-could-en-1829656820
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2740 on: October 12, 2018, 09:36:38 AM »
Happy employees.
https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/five-russian-companies-enter-u-s-dominated-forbes-list-of-best-500-employers/
Quote
Five Russian companies have made it on Forbes’s list of 500 world’s best employers, the rating published on Wednesday shows, RIA news agency reported.

According to the list, the Moscow Exchange, which occupies the 117th place in the rating, is Russia’s best employer. Oil and gas company Surgutneftegas is in 167th place, while the state-run conglomerate United Aircraft Corporation holds the 278th spot.

Russia’s flagship air carrier Aeroflot is at the 341st position in the rating, and Lukoil energy corporation occupies the 450th place.
...
The latest edition of another prominent Forbes list, the Fortune 500, also includes five Russian companies: oil giants Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, along with state-run banks Sberbank and VTB.

The companies are fighting.
https://newsbase.com/topstories/lukoil-rosneft-row-over-arctic-oil-supplies
Quote
Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil have locked horns over the cost of delivering oil from an Arctic joint project to market.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2741 on: October 12, 2018, 06:43:48 PM »
As most people know, the Saudi's "shelved" their IPO a couple months ago.  Maybe I'm not the best PR man in the world ..... BUT ..... assassinating journalists doesn't seem like it is the best thing to do if they EVER want to bring Saudi Aramco to a US exchange.   ;)

Those folks are going to end up leaving a LOT of "money on the table" before this whole IPO ever gets sorted out. That is what greed does to people.  When things are flying high as a kite ..... people don't want to sell (when they should).  And when things are in the shitter and they should be BUYING, they SELL.  In this case ..... there is a LONG ways to go before people should be buying ..... but we'll get "there" eventually.  We always do.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-ipo-exclusive/exclusive-aramco-listing-plan-halted-oil-giant-disbands-advisors-sources-idUSKCN1L71TZ
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2742 on: October 13, 2018, 04:16:48 AM »
Findings on the massive residential gas explosions near Boston on Sept 13:

”...the NTSB released preliminary findings showing that Columbia Gas failed to relocate an underground pressure sensor from an abandoned pipe during construction work in Lawrence, triggering a gush of gas into the local network that erupted into explosions and fires that rocked the Merrimack Valley.”

Quote
A teenager was killed, more than 20 other people were injured, and thousands of homes and businesses were left without gas heat or hot water.

Markey said Friday that the company took three hours to shut down critical components after the initial blasts, adding that “there is in fact a lack of preparedness that was quite obvious.”
...
The company is also racing to replace 45 miles of pipeline that were damaged by the over-pressurization. Retired Navy Seabee commander Joseph Albanese, tapped by the company to lead the response effort, has said crews are ahead of a self-imposed Nov. 19 deadline to replace the pipeline.

Columbia Gas has said it will reimburse residents and businesses for all expenses and incurred losses. More than 3,000 people have been placed in temporary housing, such as hotels, apartments, and trailers.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/10/12/sen-markey-rips-columbia-gas-for-response-merrimack-valley-fires-explosions/ttBtdbtKxOp6NzteCkyfKO/amp.html
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2743 on: October 15, 2018, 05:45:11 AM »
House of Saud edges closer to precipice:

The Heir Apparent has made very powerful enemies, and they seem to be gaining the King's ear.

To begin with, the King is not happy about his heir keeping his own mother isolated from the King.

Then,  after being apprised of the parlous state of Saud finances after decades of looting, the King nixed Aramco IPO. And closer to the bone, the King likes not the tilt toward Israel and betrayal of Palestinians by his heir.

And now the King must apologize and make nice and pay off Erdogan and Turkey after the heir chopped up a well connected Saud in the Saud embassy in Istanbul.  His patience wears thin.

The King is eighty two and debilitated. The heir feels the sands shifting under his feet, sees his enemies wax in might. Will he go for it ? Depose his father ? Or will his enemies act first ?

I suspect the former, the heir will jump first, and he may succeed. But I think he will fail, and the House of Saud will replace him with some other corrupt prince. 

Stay tuned, for next week's episode of ...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-officials-saudi-crown-prince-has-hidden-his-mother-n847391

https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Saudi-King-Salman-Looking-to-Remove-Son-Mohammad-as-Crown-Prince-Report-20180910-0011.html

sidd
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 05:52:39 AM by sidd »

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2744 on: October 15, 2018, 06:10:48 AM »
Mmm. King won't like this either, exaggerated estimate no doubt, but just another mess:

“It would lead to Saudi Arabia’s failure to commit to producing 7.5 million barrels. If the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure,”

https://in.reuters.com/article/saudi-politics-dissident/saudi-threatens-to-retaliate-against-any-sanctions-over-khashoggi-disappearance-idINKCN1MO0F3

Might be time for freedom and democracy to come to the sands of Araby. Of which more in another thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2204.msg177059.html#msg177059

sidd



sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2745 on: October 15, 2018, 08:07:13 AM »
“where they blame rogue elements of the Saudi state and throw one big significant name under the bus.”

“throw someone under the bus.”

I wonder if it could be the heir. But then it would have to be a big bus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/saudi-arabia-rejectsthreats-after-trump-vows-severe-punishment-on-khashoggi-disappearance/2018/10/14/d8c6a2be-ce55-11e8-ad0a-0e01efba3cc1_story.html


Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2746 on: October 15, 2018, 08:22:40 PM »

Might be time for freedom and democracy to come to the sands of Araby. Of which more in another thread.



Ahh yes. We (the U.S.) hasn't exported Democracy to any foreign nation recently. And it's going so well in Iraq so why are we holding back?

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2747 on: October 17, 2018, 05:48:45 AM »
Looks like the heir apparent survives, someone else is gonna get thrown under the bus. Every one of those fifteen identified Saud are looking for the exit right now. I imagine if they find one it will lead directly to Chop-chop square or an unmarked grave in the desert.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-45883174

Also what is this thing with fifteen? There were fifteen Saud on the 9-11 gig too.

For those with strong stomachs:
---

It took seven minutes for Jamal Khashoggi to die, a Turkish source who has listened in full to an audio recording of the Saudi journalist's last moments

...

The screaming stopped when Khashoggi - who was last seen entering the Saudi consulate on 2 October - was injected with an as yet unknown substance.

...

Tubaigy began to cut Khashoggi’s body up on a table in the study while he was still alive

...

Tubaigy put on earphones and listened to music. He advised other members of the squad to do the same.

...

“When I do this job, I listen to music. You should do [that] too,” Tubaigy was recorded as saying ...
---

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-khashoggi-829291552

Wouldn't surprise me if Tubaigy is an organ legger.

sidd



sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2748 on: October 17, 2018, 06:43:06 AM »
Billin' us for killin' us: other end of the Dakota pipeline

" ...  Louisiana department of natural resources has refused to enforce a judge’s order to review its approval  ..."

“Some people actually believe there is a way to win within these systems. I do not,”

" ...  the law declares pipelines “critical infrastructure” and threatens felony charges for anyone trespassing on a pipeline site."

" ... I am fearful that the Cajun people that rely on the Atchafalaya basin for their way of life are going to resort to drastic measures."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/16/dakota-access-pipeline-bayou-bridge-protest-activism

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2749 on: October 17, 2018, 08:06:46 AM »
Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri is either in custody or running for the border. Or dead.

"One possible scapegoat, according to several sources, may be Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, the deputy chief of Saudi intelligence. "

And this boy's worth watching:

"MBS’s key counselor is said to have been Saud al-Qahtani, the crown prince’s media adviser but also increasingly his consigliere ..."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mbss-rampaging-anger-will-not-silence-questions-about-jamal-khashoggi/2018/10/16/5a0bf43a-d182-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html

Saud totters.

sidd