Oil and Gas Issues

[Sciguy]

Can someone tell me the plausibility of this report by Philip K. Verleger, Jr.?

$200 Crude, the Economic Crisis of 2020, and
Policies to Prevent Catastrophe
https://www.pkverlegerllc.com/assets/documents/180704200CrudePaper.pdf

Also, thousands of ships are being equipped with scrubbers which will allow them to burn high-sulphur diesel and still meet the requirements.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-kemp/maritime-rule-change-stirs-fears-of-diesel-shortage-kemp-idUSKCN1MZ2EM?fbclid=IwAR2OFDr6EoYyxuLEl2qIk08aczFS-GmlE-6bMP-O7Xy5ztFhnfUQheUW3Ds

The global shipping industry accounted for 46 percent of heavy fuel oil and 5 percent of gasoil used worldwide in 2012.

Under IMO rules, ship owners have two routes to comply with the reduced sulfur caps: switch consumption to fuels containing less sulfur or install exhaust gas cleaning systems commonly known as scrubbers.

Installing scrubbers involves a large upfront cost of several million dollars per ship but will allow them to continue burning cheaper high-sulfur fuel oil (capital investment to lower operating costs).

Switching consumption to lower-sulfur fuels avoids upfront costs but locks owners into buying more expensive fuels, lowering capital investment but raising operating costs.

The IMO’s consultants forecast that around 3,800 ships would be fitted with scrubbers by the start of January 2020.

They predicted most ship owners would leave installations until 2018/19 to delay capital costs as late as possible and avoid incurring costs until they could take advantage of discounted high-sulfur fuel oil.

These forecasts appear reasonably accurate. By 2020, around 4,000 ships will be fitted with scrubbers, on the most recent estimate.

A total of 1,850 vessels have already been fitted with scrubbers, according to a report issued by Norwegian consulting firm DNV GL on Oct. 10.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Trump is skating on thin ice over another energy crisis as bad as the 70s:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/trump-has-just-taken-the-biggest-economic-gamble-of-his-presidency-20190426-p51hdi.html

[mitch]

Interesting that the Saudis are admitting that their main oil field (Ghawar) is beyond peak oil and production there is declining. I think the Saudis are trying to get out of oil and into other industries. 

Driving up the price now would allow them to get maximum price for their remaining reserves.  The good news is that EV's are becoming a mature form of transportation.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Interesting that the Saudis are admitting that their main oil field (Ghawar) is beyond peak oil and production there is declining. I think the Saudis are trying to get out of oil and into other industries. 

Driving up the price now would allow them to get maximum price for their remaining reserves.  The good news is that EV's are becoming a mature form of transportation.

When do you think I will be able to:
Buy an EV with similar performance to ICE cars, at a similar price and
Be able to "charge up" as easily as I can gas up now?

[crandles]

price parity by around 2022
https://thedriven.io/2019/01/23/report-predicts-21m-ev-2030-price-parity-2022/

Total cost of ownership parity before then if not already.

> "charge up" as easily as I can gas up now

Who wants to breathe toxic fumes at a gas station? Plugging in at home is surely easier (no special journey) than inserting nozzle at gas station (assuming possible). Depending on your driving needs, that may only account for 90-98% of days and the rest, for the moment, you may well need to plan in advance where you are going to charge up and it take longer but that will certainly get easier with many more options in future for where you can charge up and leave it unattended while you do something useful.

If you see this as offputting, then perhaps you need to reassess importance of AGW and what you are willing to do to reduce impact you are having?

[gerontocrat]

When do you think I will be able to:
Buy an EV with similar performance to ICE cars, at a similar price and
Be able to "charge up" as easily as I can gas up now?

Do you think humanity will be able to sort out the environmental damage humanity has done, is doing and will inevitably do over the next few years (no matter what efforts are made) without causing automobile drivers any inconvenience whatsoever?

[Tom_Mazanec]

price parity by around 2022
https://thedriven.io/2019/01/23/report-predicts-21m-ev-2030-price-parity-2022/

Total cost of ownership parity before then if not already.

> "charge up" as easily as I can gas up now

Who wants to breathe toxic fumes at a gas station? Plugging in at home is surely easier (no special journey) than inserting nozzle at gas station (assuming possible). Depending on your driving needs, that may only account for 90-98% of days and the rest, for the moment, you may well need to plan in advance where you are going to charge up and it take longer but that will certainly get easier with many more options in future for where you can charge up and leave it unattended while you do something useful.

If you see this as offputting, then perhaps you need to reassess importance of AGW and what you are willing to do to reduce impact you are having?

Not offputting as you describe it.
I have a 2011 Ford Fiesta with something like 21,000 or 22,000 miles on it. It will be awhile till it needs to be replaced. I live in an apartment style condo with an open air parking garage with an assigned slot for my car...no power outlet there. When would one be likely to be installed?

[Shared Humanity]

Interesting that the Saudis are admitting that their main oil field (Ghawar) is beyond peak oil and production there is declining. I think the Saudis are trying to get out of oil and into other industries. 

Driving up the price now would allow them to get maximum price for their remaining reserves.  The good news is that EV's are becoming a mature form of transportation.

When do you think I will be able to:
Buy an EV with similar performance to ICE cars, at a similar price and
Be able to "charge up" as easily as I can gas up now?

Existential crises can be so damn inconvenient. 

[oren]

I live in an apartment style condo with an open air parking garage with an assigned slot for my car...no power outlet there. When would one be likely to be installed?

Maybe when you pressure condo management?
Technically it could be this year. Realistically it could be in the next 5 years. Less than that for a corporate parking lot. On-street parking could take much longer.

[Tom_Mazanec]

I live in an apartment style condo with an open air parking garage with an assigned slot for my car...no power outlet there. When would one be likely to be installed?

Maybe when you pressure condo management?
Technically it could be this year. Realistically it could be in the next 5 years. Less than that for a corporate parking lot. On-street parking could take much longer.

We are having a picnic for the 24 units sometime in June. Maybe I can campaign among the residents to electrify the carport.

[etienne]

I live in an apartment style condo with an open air parking garage with an assigned slot for my car...no power outlet there. When would one be likely to be installed?

Maybe when you pressure condo management?
Technically it could be this year. Realistically it could be in the next 5 years. Less than that for a corporate parking lot. On-street parking could take much longer.

We are having a picnic for the 24 units sometime in June. Maybe I can campaign among the residents to electrify the carport.

This is a little bit out of topic, but the problem of residential loading is that you need to install the infrastructure for each EV because parking place are private and you can't move your car when you want to load it. On the other hand, you don't want to move your car in the middle of the night when your neighbour has his car loaded to that you can load yours.

There are two ways to do it, you can install a single electrical distribution and put a counter on each loading station, or you can have a cable coming from each private electrical distribution to the carport. The first solution has the advantage that you can do some load balancing, which means faster loading when fewer cars are connected, and reduced to no loading when there is a high power requirement in the building. The second solution has the advantage that costs can be carried by each interested person, but if everybody loads at its maximum power, you'll probably have the main breaker that will stop it completely. A mix of both doesn't make sense because load balancing requires a level of technology that includes the counters.

[Archimid]

Report: New Mexico’s Methane Problem Worsens as Permian Production Soars


https://www.edf.org/media/report-new-mexicos-methane-problem-worsens-permian-production-soars

Application of cutting-edge research and new Permian data indicate New Mexico’s methane emissions are five times higher than what EPA data suggest

[rboyd]

Report: New Mexico’s Methane Problem Worsens as Permian Production Soars


https://www.edf.org/media/report-new-mexicos-methane-problem-worsens-permian-production-soars

Application of cutting-edge research and new Permian data indicate New Mexico’s methane emissions are five times higher than what EPA data suggest

There is more and more of such studies coming out, it will be interesting to see if this is taken up by the UN IPCC / regulators with respect to national emissions data. The restatements for both the USA and Canada could be quite considerable and change the "clean bridge fuel" narrative for natural gas.

[Sigmetnow]

Exxon Directors Face Shareholder Revolt Over Climate Change

A group of Exxon Mobil Corp. shareholders launched a proxy fight against the oil giant’s directors after failing to get a climate proposal onto the ballot for the company’s annual meeting.

The New York State Common Retirement Fund, led by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, and the Church of England said they would vote against all Exxon directors at the company’s May 29 annual meeting and urged other shareholders to consider doing the same.

Exxon’s “inadequate response to climate change constitutes a serious failure of corporate governance,” they said in a filing Friday.

The investors, which said they are acting with the Climate Action 100+ group of investors who oversee $32 trillion in assets, also urged shareholders to vote in favor of proposals for an independent chairman, the establishment of a climate change board committee and a report on lobbying. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-05-03/exxon-directors-face-shareholder-revolt-over-climate-change

[Shared Humanity]

Report: New Mexico’s Methane Problem Worsens as Permian Production Soars


https://www.edf.org/media/report-new-mexicos-methane-problem-worsens-permian-production-soars

Application of cutting-edge research and new Permian data indicate New Mexico’s methane emissions are five times higher than what EPA data suggest

There is more and more of such studies coming out, it will be interesting to see if this is taken up by the UN IPCC / regulators with respect to national emissions data. The restatements for both the USA and Canada could be quite considerable and change the "clean bridge fuel" narrative for natural gas.

There is nothing clean about fracked natural gas nor any other source of nonconventional fossil fuels. Unfortunately, proponents of BAU will continue to lie that this is the case.

[vox_mundi]

Gigantic Druzhba oil pipeline paralyzed for weeks   
https://dw.com/en/gigantic-druzhba-oil-pipeline-paralyzed-for-weeks/a-48638989

Contaminated crude oil from Russia is clogging the main delivery route for several EU countries. Belarus, Poland and Germany are particularly affected and the real financial consequences are still completely unclear.

Germany has a serious problem with Russia, its largest energy supplier. For two weeks, the Druzhba (Russian for "friendship") pipeline has been blocked. It is the main route to supply Europe's leading economy with Russian oil.

The problem is technical. According to information from Moscow, heavily polluted oil has entered the pipeline probably in the Samara region on the Volga. This oil contains chlorides, which are used to extract oil from largely exhausted sources. But afterwards the chlorides have to be removed, because they can cause severe corrosion damage in refineries.

The maximum allowed concentration of such chemicals is 10 parts per million (ppm). Currently though the oil in the Druzhba pipe is showing up to 330 ppm of chloride. Since refineries have refused to accept such a contaminated raw material, its transit was stopped by the pipeline operators in all customer countries.

It is been estimated that up to five million tons, or 37 million barrels, have entered the system in Russia. That would correspond roughly to the monthly capacity of the now clogged Druzhba pipeline.   

[Sigmetnow]

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 5/8/19, 11:28 AM
The world now subsidizes fossil fuels by $5.7 trillion dollars, according to the latest estimates published by the IMF. The biggest contributors are:
China—$1.4T
U.S.—$649B
Russia—$551B
EU—$239 billion
India—$209 billion
Here's the download link: imf.org/~/media/Files/… 1/
   [ https://t.co/kHvJzD8I7q ]
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1126146753835696128
- Since the language of the Paris Climate Accord was adopted, subsidies of fossil fuels have actually increased—by 11%. Coal and oil accounted for 85% of the global $5.7 trillion subsidy bill. Renewable power, which isn’t included, gets just $140B. 2/
- The $5.7 trillion fossil fuel subsidy figure includes externalities that aren’t included in the price of fuel: environmental destruction, human illness from pollution, etc. Direct subsidies (pre-tax) are much narrower: $296 billion in 2017. 3/ pic.twitter.com/Y8Ny91XM6f
- The dip in direct fossil-fuel subsidies shown above is primarily a reflection of cheaper prices. Higher prices will bring back subsidies. There's also been subsidy reform in a few oil-producing nations (e.g. gasoline in Saudi Arabia now costs $2/gallon instead of $0.61) 4/
- An interesting note on externalities: It’s not just global warming. For coal, 69% of the cost society bears is from local pollution and the sickness that comes with it. For oil, 38% is local pollution and 36% is auto congestion/crashes 5/

[Sigmetnow]

“Plastics production is responsible for a significant amount of greenhouse gases, the underpinning of global warming. Together, plastics and other petrochemical commodities are expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest driver of global oil demand by 2050.”

Investors Pressure Oil Giants on Ocean Plastics Pollution
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02052019/plastic-oceans-climate-change-pollution-investor-pressure-exxon-chevron-dow-shareholder-resolutions

[Tom_Mazanec]

Shale oil production about to crash?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

[Sigmetnow]

Texas coast

Tanker collision leaves thousands of gallons of gas product leaking into Houston shipping channel

A collision between a massive tanker and two oil barges has resulted in as much as tens of thousands of gallons of a gasoline product leaking into a shipping channel near Houston.

The U.S. Coast Guard confirmed the accident, which took place about 3:30 p.m. local time, in the Houston Ship Channel, near Bayport, Texas. A 755-foot tanker collided with a tug pushing two barges filled with 25,000 gallons of reformate each.

Reformate is an intermediate stage in the production of gasoline and is colorless, flammable and toxic to marine life.

It is unclear how much of the product has leaked into the water, officials said.
...
One of the barges capsized, while the other was severely damaged, according to the Coast Guard. Video from on scene showed one barge nearly sliced in half as a result of the collision. ...

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/tanker-accident-leaves-thousands-gallons-gas-product-leaking/story?id=62975485

[Sebastian Jones]

Shale oil production about to crash?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

Inevitable this prediction shall come true. However, the shale industry has managed to confound critics such as David Hughes since 2005, and there is no indication that this collapse is imminent. The collapse is likely to be driven by the price of oil, which in turn is most likely to collapse if the global economy starts to shrink. Which is inevitable too, right?

[vox_mundi]

Alaska LNG exports proposed to fund Arctic icebreakers and ports 
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/lng-exports-ship-tariffs-proposed-for-arctic-funding

... Treadwell, an Arctic policy expert from the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., predicted liquefied natural gas (LNG) the “next big wave” of economic activity in the region that could help fund ice-breaking ships and deep-water ports.

“[The Russians] are bringing 16.5 million tons of LNG from the Yamal [LNG project] through the Bering Strait [en route to Asia] 2,600 miles through the ice, while we’ve got big fields in Prudhoe Bay [Alaska] that are lying fallow” that would require just 600 miles through the ice zone, Treadwell asserted to lawmakers at a maritime subcommittee hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“With that opportunity, I predict that sometime by the end of the next decade, you’re going to see maybe as much as 50 million tons of LNG per year moving out of Russia, and maybe as much as 30-40 million tons out of Alaska” and Canada, he said. “Economic activity in the North will help pay for infrastructure in the North.”
.....................
Just like ... 'the Iraq war will pay for itself'

[oren]

Yay. Climate Change is such an opportunity!

[vox_mundi]

Let the Games begin ...

Two Saudi Oil Tankers Attacked in the Persian Gulf Amid Rising Iran Tensions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/two-saudi-oil-tankers-attacked-in-the-persian-gulf-amid-rising-iran-tensions/2019/05/13/c8907108-755e-11e9-bd25-c989555e7766_story.html

BEIRUT — Two Saudi oil tankers have been attacked and damaged in coastal waters near the Persian Gulf, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said Monday, further heightening tensions with Iran.

The tankers were subjected to an “act of sabotage” early Sunday in waters off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said in a statement reported by the official Saudi news agency.

Saudi Arabia did not say who was responsible for the attack, which the statement said caused no casualties or oil spill but inflicted “significant damage” on the vessels.

The incident coincides with a surge in U.S.-Iranian tensions after the United States said last week that it has received intelligence that Iran was planning some kind of attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East.

------------------------

Can you say 'yellow cake'?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27969/oil-tankers-supposedly-sabotaged-in-the-persian-gulf-as-u-s-carrier-group-approaches





https://twitter.com/Obs_IL/status/1127820905495846913/photo/1

[Tom_Mazanec]

And a Norwegian tanker gets pulled into the game:
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/uae-sabatoge-attack-norway-registered-tanker-damaged-off-fujairah-1.7227206

[Sciguy]

Shale oil production about to crash?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

Inevitable this prediction shall come true. However, the shale industry has managed to confound critics such as David Hughes since 2005, and there is no indication that this collapse is imminent. The collapse is likely to be driven by the price of oil, which in turn is most likely to collapse if the global economy starts to shrink. Which is inevitable too, right?

The article has some valid reasons why the shale boom will be ending sooner than might be expected:

For years, companies have deployed an array of drilling techniques to extract more oil and gas out of their wells, steadily intensifying each stage of the operation. Longer laterals, more water, more frac sand, closer spacing of wells – pushing each of these to their limits, for the most part, led to more production. Higher output allowed the industry to outpace the infamous decline rates from shale wells.

In fact, since 2012, average lateral lengths have increased 44 percent to over 7,000 feet and the volume of water used in drilling has surged more than 250 percent, according to a new report for the Post Carbon Institute. Taken together, longer laterals and more prodigious use of water and sand means that a well drilled in 2018 can reach 2.6 times as much reservoir rock as a well drilled in 2012, the report says.

For a while, there was enough acreage to allow for a blistering growth rate, but the boom days eventually have to come to an end. There are already some signs of strain in the shale patch, where intensification of drilling techniques has begun to see diminishing returns. Putting wells too close together can lead to less reservoir pressure, reducing overall production. The industry is only now reckoning with this so-called “parent-child” well interference problem.

Also, more water and more sand and longer laterals all have their limits. Last year, major shale gas driller EQT drilled a lateral that exceeded 18,000 feet. The company boasted that it would continue to ratchet up the length to as long as 20,000 feet. But EQT quickly found out that it had problems when it exceeded 15,000 feet. “The decision to drill some of the longest horizontal wells ever in shale rocks turned into a costly misstep costing hundreds of millions of dollars,” the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year.

[Sebastian Jones]

Shale oil production about to crash?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

Inevitably this prediction shall come true. However, the shale industry has managed to confound critics such as David Hughes since 2005, and there is no indication that this collapse is imminent. The collapse is likely to be driven by the price of oil, which in turn is most likely to collapse if the global economy starts to shrink. Which is inevitable too, right?

The article has some valid reasons why the shale boom will be ending sooner than might be expected:

.....

It does indeed. We have seen these reasons brought out before. There is a saying in fracking criticism circles- "Red Queen production". Just like the Red Queen in Alice Through The Looking Glass, shale drillers have to work faster and faster, better and better to off set declines. I expect that  tech developments will put off the crash for a bit longer yet- not to mention that there is a pretty decent inventory of drilled but not completed (fracked) wells. Once North American shale production goes off a cliff, it will seriously roil global oil markets. Fracking essentially doubled American oil production over the past 14 years.

[Sigmetnow]

“A lot of damage has already been done."

Oil is slowly losing its best customer

Between global warming, Elon Musk, and a worldwide crackdown on carbon, the future looks treacherous for Big Oil.

The rise of Tesla (TSLA) and electric vehicles broadly pose an existential threat to the oil industry. Passenger vehicles are the No. 1 source of demand for oil — and tomorrow's transportation system may no longer rely on the gas station.

But it's unclear if long-term investors should worry that the world's unquenchable thirst for oil will finally be satisfied. No one truly knows when that moment will arrive: Estimates range from a few years to several decades. The timing depends on how many electric vehicles will be on the road, how seriously governments take global warming and a confluence of other factors.

The lack of visibility in the oil industry's long-term future remains a big risk for investors. Rapidly evolving technology and shifting political winds could hasten the arrival of peak oil well before Wall Street's estimates. That could cause serious financial pain.

"Look at what happened to the coal industry," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "You have to keep that in the back of your mind and be vigilant. It can turn very, very quickly.” ...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/08/investing/oil-stocks-electric-vehicles-tesla/index.html

[vox_mundi]

Oil Prices Jump After Saudi Arabia Reports Drone Attack On Pumping Stations
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/investing/oil-prices-saudi-drone-attack/index.html

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia reported "armed drones" attacked two pumping stations in the kingdom, underscoring rising tensions in the Middle East.

US oil prices rose 1.4% even though Saudi Aramco told CNN that the attack caused "no damage to oil production, no oil spills or injuries." Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped 1.6%.

Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's state-owned oil company, told CNN that the drone attack targeted two pumping stations located between Riyadh in the east and Yanbu in the west. Only one of the pumping stations suffered "minor damage," Aramco said.

--------------------------------

U.S. Government Claims Iran Is Behind Attacks On Oil Tankers, But Has Yet To Show Evidence
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27992/u-s-government-claims-iran-is-behind-attacks-on-oil-tankers-but-has-yet-to-show-evidence

The news of comes amid a report that the Pentagon revised a contingency plan that includes sending 120,000 troops to respond to Iranian aggression. ... Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan presented an updated contingency plan to President Donald Trump and other senior administration officials on May 9, 2019, regarding how the U.S. military could respond if Iran or its proxies were to follow through with any attacks, or if that country were to begin work toward building a nuclear weapon.

The revisions were ordered by hard-liners led by John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser. They do not call for a land invasion of Iran, which would require vastly more troops, officials said. ... It is unclear whether the president has been briefed on the number of troops or other details in the plans.

Deploying such a robust air, land and naval force would give Tehran more targets to strike, and potentially more reason to do so, risking entangling the United States in a drawn out conflict.

... The previous version of the Pentagon’s war plan included a classified subset code-named Nitro Zeus, a cyberoperation that called for unplugging Iran’s major cities, it power grid and its military.

... a cyberattack, without dropping bombs, carries significant risk. Iran has built up a major cyber corps of its own, one that successfully attacked financial markets in 2012, a casino in Las Vegas and a range of military targets. American intelligence officials told Congress in January that Iranian hackers are now considered sophisticated operators who are increasingly capable of striking United States targets.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html

----------------------



Operation Northwoods (... just sayin')

-------------------------

[ASILurker]

a "drone" attack hey? with explosives/ordinance.

Wasn't 'novichoks' then .... well that's good. 

... The previous version of the Pentagon’s war plan included a classified subset code-named Nitro Zeus, a cyberoperation that called for unplugging Iran’s major cities, it power grid and its military.

The attacks on the Grid in Venezuela must have been a good practice exercise for the US Intel ... albeit ultimately unsuccessful in it's goals.

[vox_mundi]

a "drone" attack hey? with explosives/ordinance.

Wasn't 'novichoks' then .... well that's good. 

... The previous version of the Pentagon’s war plan included a classified subset code-named Nitro Zeus, a cyberoperation that called for unplugging Iran’s major cities, it power grid and its military.

The attacks on the Grid in Venezuela must have been a good practice exercise for the US Intel ... albeit ultimately unsuccessful in it's goals.

That was a warm-up. We're just getting started ...

[etienne]

I don't believe that one side is more trustworthy than the other. Saudi Arabia really wants prices up, and it is always nice for a non democratic government (Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia...) to say that problems are due to somebody else, which might even be true, but control is impossible excepted like the US controlled mass destruction arms in Irak, which I hope won't happen again.

[ASILurker]

I don't believe that one side is more trustworthy than the other. Saudi Arabia really wants prices up, and it is always nice for a non democratic government (Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia...) to say that problems are due to somebody else, which might even be true, but control is impossible excepted like the US controlled mass destruction arms in Iraq, which I hope won't happen again.

Fixed.

[Tom_Mazanec]

What the end of the oil giants means:
https://srsroccoreport.com/the-end-of-the-oil-giants-and-what-it-means/

[vox_mundi]

[Sciguy]

Solar or wind plus storage continues to replace gas peaker plants in the US.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Energy-Storage-Capacity-Set-To-Double-This-Year.html

U.S. grid-connected energy storage capacity this year is set for a twofold increase to 712 MW from 376 MW last year. What’s more, between 2019 and 2024, storage capacity will soar to almost 5 GW, of which 90 percent will be battery storage, IHS Markit said in a new report.

In fact, in some cases, solar and wind plus storage is cost-competitive with traditional peaker plants that use fossil fuels to provide backup power when needed. This week the U.S. News & World Report wrote about Southern California Edison’s decision to scrap its plans for a new 262-MW peaker plant in favor of a 195-MW battery array that will store energy produced by solar and wind farms.

Wood Mackenzie’s head of energy storage says battery storage facilities are increasingly becoming a better alternative to peaker plants.

"Gas peakers only operate a few hours in a year,” Ravi Manghani told the U.S. News & World Report. "We've seen four to six hours of energy storage is technically sufficient to replace most of these peaking assets. As battery costs continue to fall, battery storage systems have become economically more attractive alternatives."

[ArcticMelt2]

<snip, off-topic; N.>

[gerontocrat]

ONLY IN AMERICA

I had to check if the following was not an April 1 spoof reappearing.

US energy department rebrands fossil fuels as 'molecules of freedom'
Press release from department said increasing export capacity is ‘critical to spreading freedom gas throughout the world’

America is the land of freedom, as any politician will be happy to tell you. What you don’t hear quite so often is that the stuff under the land is also apparently made of freedom as well. That is, at least according to a news release this week from the Department of Energy (DoE).

Mark W Menezes, the US undersecretary of energy, bestowed a peculiar honorific on our continent’s natural resources, dubbing it “freedom gas” in a release touting the DoE’s approval of increased exports of natural gas produced by a Freeport LNG terminal off the coast of Texas.

“Increasing export capacity from the Freeport LNG project is critical to spreading freedom gas throughout the world by giving America’s allies a diverse and affordable source of clean energy,” he said.

“With the US in another year of record-setting natural gas production, I am pleased that the Department of Energy is doing what it can to promote an efficient regulatory system that allows for molecules of US freedom to be exported to the world,” said Steven Winberg.

It’s unclear if members of the Trump administration attempting to assign patriotic intentions to natural gas are aware of the silliness of the concept, but Rick Perry seems to believe in it.

“Seventy-five years after liberating Europe from Nazi Germany occupation, the United States is again delivering a form of freedom to the European continent,” the energy secretary said earlier this month, according to EURACTV.

“And rather than in the form of young American soldiers, it’s in the form of liquefied natural gas.”

[Neven]

You gotta love the Onion. What great satire.

[gerontocrat]

You gotta love the Onion. What great satire.

It should be satire, but it ain't....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/29/energy-department-molecules-freedom-fossil-fuel-rebranding

https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-authorizes-additional-lng-exports-freeport-lng

Advances commitment to U.S. jobs, economic growth, clean energy
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) advanced its commitment to promoting clean energy, job creation, and economic growth by approving additional exports of domestically produced natural gas from the Freeport LNG Terminal located on Quintana Island, Texas. The announcement was made at the Tenth Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM10) in Vancouver, Canada where DOE is highlighting its efforts to advance clean energy. The expansion of the Freeport LNG facility is estimated to support up to 3,000 engineering and construction jobs and hundreds of indirect jobs associated with the project.

“Increasing export capacity from the Freeport LNG project is critical to spreading freedom gas throughout the world by giving America’s allies a diverse and affordable source of clean energy. Further, more exports of U.S. LNG to the world means more U.S. jobs and more domestic economic growth and cleaner air here at home and around the globe,” said U.S. Under Secretary of Energy Mark W. Menezes, who highlighted the approval at the Clean Energy Ministerial in Vancouver, Canada. “There’s no doubt today’s announcement furthers this Administration’s commitment to promoting energy security and diversity worldwide.”

“Approval of additional LNG exports from Freeport LNG furthers this Administration’s commitment to promoting American energy, American jobs, and the American economy. Further, increased supplies of U.S. natural gas on the world market are critical to advancing clean energy and the energy security of our allies around the globe. With the U.S. in another year of record-setting natural gas production, I am pleased that the Department of Energy is doing what it can to promote an efficient regulatory system that allows for molecules of U.S. freedom to be exported to the world,” said Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg, who signed the export order and was also in attendance at the Clean Energy Ministerial.

[Neven]

It should be satire, but it ain't....

Oops. 

[Tom_Mazanec]

Yeah, I came across that, but decided not to post it, it was so far out.

[Tor Bejnar]

You gotta love the Onion. What great satire.

It should be satire, but it ain't....

Oops. 

Folks who no longer work for the Onion go elsewhere but continue to ply their trade.   

[Tom_Mazanec]

Natural gas must go:
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/5/30/18643819/climate-change-natural-gas-middle-ground

[rboyd]

The US copying the Canadians? We rebranded the Tar Sands muck as "Ethical Oil" years ago!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/please-stop-calling-it-ethical-oil/article4101409/

[Sigmetnow]

Environmental Impact Of Plastics Could Be Equal To 615 Coal-Fired Generating Plants By 2050

The Center for International Environmental Law has issued a new report that should send a shudder down your spine. It says demand for plastics is accelerating, especially in developing nations. If the “business as usual” scenario plays out at anticipated, by 2050, plastics — from extracting the oil and gas they are made from, to manufacturing them, to distributing them, to disposing of them — will contribute 2.8 million gigatons of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere each year, equivalent to the emissions from 615 coal-fired generating plants. ...

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/03/environmental-impact-of-plastics-could-be-equal-to-615-coal-fired-generating-plants-by-2050/

[Sciguy]

California natural gas power plant is cancelled.  The beginning of trend for natural gas similar to coal in the US?

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/calpine-drops-mission-rock-application-as-californias-gas-plant-pipeline-dw

Independent power producer Calpine has abandoned plans to build a new natural-gas plant in Southern California, swelling the ranks of recently canceled fossil fuel plants in the state.

The company withdrew its application for the Mission Rock plant in a letter to the California Energy Commission dated May 21. That decision ended a years-long conflict over the permitting of the plant, a 255-megawatt combustion turbine facility planned on the banks of the Santa Clara River in Ventura County, northwest of Los Angeles. The Native American Chumash people opposed the plant as a disruption to a river environment that they consider sacred.

The permitting battle also became a test case for new fossil fuel plant development as the Golden State moves toward its legislative goal of carbon-free electricity by 2045.

Mission Rock joins a string of recent gas plant cancellations in California. The state still relied on natural-gas generation for 34 percent of its electricity in 2017, but new gas construction there has become a rarity as market and policy headwinds intensify.

Mission Rock did not die because regulators rejected it. That means that gas plants could still win approval in California, if the state's energy agencies do not assess applications differently as a result of the 100 percent clean electricity law.

Whether or not new gas plants make economic sense for developers is another matter.

The thinning pipeline and recent string of failed gas plant developments raise the possibility that California won't build any more new plants.

"I really think that we have turned the corner on building or investing in gas in California," Meszaros said. "It’s increasingly difficult for people to say they prefer a technology that has these negative impacts."

The 2045 deadline sets a countdown for any new plants to pay themselves off, Gillespie said. While 25 years may seem like a long time, it's a typical amortization period for a gas plant. The business case becomes even more challenging when the operating lifetime is capped by legislation.

Meanwhile, clean options like solar power and energy storage keep getting cheaper and more competitive with gas, he added. Utilities, regulators and advocates are gaining more experience in evaluating zero-carbon portfolios to meet grid needs.

"We’re still a decade or two away from being able to really fully get off of gas, but it’s coming soon," Gillespie said. "You’re not going to see any new proposals come forward at this point that are going to get serious airtime from regulators, utilities or the public."

[Sciguy]

Another blow to Canadian oil sands production.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Next-Headache-For-Canadas-Oil-Patch.html

The Next Headache For Canada’s Oil Patch

By Nick Cunningham - Jun 04, 2019, 4:00 PM CDT

Canada’s oil sands industry just can’t catch a break.

Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline is facing the prospect of more delays as it was hit with a legal setback in a Minnesota court. On Monday, a court ruled that the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission’s decision to approve the Line 3 replacement, based on an environmental impact statement, was not supported with “substantial evidence” that it would not harm the environment. Specifically, the court cited the inadequate assessment of how an oil spill would affect Lake Superior and its watershed. The case was brought by a coalition of environmental groups and native communities.

While this may seem like a problem only for Enbridge, it is yet another in a long line if headaches for Canada’s oil industry. The graveyard of major cross-continental oil pipelines from Alberta grows with each passing year. Northern Gateway, Energy East, Trans Mountain Expansion, Keystone XL – each of these pipelines has been vociferously opposed by ranchers, local communities, environmental groups and First Nations.

Earlier this year, Enbridge delayed the in-service date for Line 3 from late 2019 to the second half of 2020 due to a longer-than-expected permitting process.

But the latest court decision could impose more delays. “I think they’re going to have to take (a potential spill) much more seriously than just some hypothetical modeling and really be conscious about the headwaters of the Great Lakes,” Frank Bibeau, lawyer for the Honor the Earth environmental group, told Reuters.

Earlier this year, the province of Alberta implemented mandatory production curtailments as the region’s midstream capacity was completely tapped out, leading to painful price discounts for Western Canada Select. WCS prices rebounded sharply after producers were forced to lower output. Alberta announced that it would keep the cuts in place through July, unchanged from June levels at 175,000 bpd (or about half of the original cut).

The fact that the province has to maintain mandatory production curtailments in place is a direct result of the industry’s inability to build new pipelines.

[Sigmetnow]

U.S. oil prices drop, marking their entry into a bear market

U.S. oil futures settled sharply lower on Wednesday as a weekly climb of 6.8 million barrels in domestic crude supplies lifted total stocks to their highest level in nearly two years. Data showing weaker-than-expected growth in private-sector jobs in May also fed concerns over a slowdown in the economy, which could lead to a decline in energy demand. July West Texas Intermediate oil CLN19, -3.44% fell $1.80, or 3.4%, to settle at $51.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Front-month futures finished at 22% below their most recent high of $66.30 from April 23, marking WTI's entry into a bear market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oil-prices-drop-marking-their-entry-into-a-bear-market-2019-06-05

[Sebastian Jones]

Another blow to Canadian oil sands production.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Next-Headache-For-Canadas-Oil-Patch.html

The Next Headache For Canada’s Oil Patch

By Nick Cunningham - Jun 04, 2019, 4:00 PM CDT

Canada’s oil sands industry just can’t catch a break.

Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline is facing the prospect of more delays as it was hit with a legal setback in a Minnesota court. ...Snip....
The fact that the province has to maintain mandatory production curtailments in place is a direct result of the industry’s inability to build new pipelines.

Industry's inability to build new pipelines is a direct result of society's rejection of expanded fossil fuel infrastructure- people are not entirely stupid.