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Archimid

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3000 on: June 07, 2019, 11:54:59 PM »
GE bet on fossil fuels, lost nearly $200B in misjudging renewable energy transition, study says

https://electrek.co/2019/06/06/ge-renewable-energy-transition/

Quote
General Electric’s profitability collapse over the past few years can be largely attributed to the company’s inability to judge the accelerating pace of the global energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewables, a new study claims.
 
The analysis comes from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), which says that “GE made a massive bet on the future of natural gas and thermal coal, and lost,” concluding:

GE destroyed an almost unprecedented US$193 billion (bn)1 or 74% of its market capitalization over 2016-2018.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3001 on: June 08, 2019, 05:28:40 PM »
U.S. oil prices drop, marking their entry into a bear market
I occasionally look at Bloomberg charts on Crude and Gold.

At the moment they are very much Trumpometers. Attached is Year to Date

Crude went up and up - Venezuela, Libya Iran - mostly to do with Trump's tweets and sanctions on Iran. Fear of restricted supplies.
Now its gone down. Mostly due to Trump's tariff tweets and actions _ China, Mexico. Fear of reduced demand.

Gold- there are gold bugs that hold gold just because... But the recent rise is definitely fear driven, the rush to safe havens.

Add to that the realisation by Bloomberg, amongst others, that the sugar rush from Trump's tax cuts has evaporated, the Fed making signals about rate cuts, the prospects for the US and World  suddenly look not so good. If Trump continues to shaft China nd Mexico with more grief, then....

And Iran ...........

Methinks most Oil and Gas investors, being short to medium-term, will not be looking at renewables at all while making their decisions during this time of uncertainty.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3002 on: June 08, 2019, 05:54:00 PM »
Bitcoin: Moon!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3003 on: June 09, 2019, 05:34:52 PM »
“The oil market, showing characteristics typical of an equity market, is already starting to reflect the potential for a surplus in 2020. Despite a tight physical market due to Russia’s pipeline contamination crisis and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, oil prices briefly dipped below $60 last week, down more than 20 percent from a high above $75 in late April.”

Bulls beware: The 2020 oil market is quickly turning ugly - Bloomberg
Quote
Oil bulls thought 2020 would be their year.

After half a decade of lower spending on new projects, oil production growth was supposed to slow to a trickle just as demand was supercharged by a once-in-a-generation shake up in the shipping fuel market. Many market commentators predicted that if $100 a barrel-oil was going to make a come back, it would happen in 2020.

Excitement is fading fast. The first official assessment of 2020 comes from the International Energy Agency on Friday, but a first look at forecasts from consultants and traders for supply and demand balances show persistent surpluses, not the deficit that was expected to underpin rising prices.
The culprits: rising shale production, a slowing global economy and the prospect of a deepening trade war.


"The balances for 2020 were already worrisome, and the downgrade in demand we are contemplating put them potentially in the ugly category," said Roger Diwan, an OPEC watcher at consultant IHS Markit Ltd.

The first tentative glances into 2020 by oil consultants are nearly unanimous about the prospect of oversupply -- a view shared in private by major commodity trading houses. The surpluses are all the more remarkable because none is predicting a recovery in Iranian and Venezuelan output. Over the last year, the combined output of the two troubled OPEC producers has dropped roughly 2.2 million barrels a day -- equal to what Germany consumes. …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-09/bulls-beware-the-2020-oil-market-is-quickly-turning-ugly
Also here:  https://apple.news/ADWCAwciWR_SMPGMiCqUcPQ
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3004 on: June 13, 2019, 11:29:03 AM »
It smelled like a big war.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/gulf-of-oman-incident-latest-intl/index.html

Quote
Iran says it rescued 44 crew members from the two affected tankers
 From CNN’s Shirzad Bozorgmehr in Tehran

Forty-four sailors and crew members have been rescued by Iran's navy from two tankers in the Gulf of Oman and have been taken to the Iranian island of Jask, according to Iran state-run news agency IRNA, citing informed sources on Thursday.

The report claimed the ships were “targeted” but did not detail by whom, or what. 

Jask is an Iranian port in the south, about 12.5 miles from Oman’s shore.

I hope the war will not be nuclear.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3005 on: June 13, 2019, 11:39:35 AM »
Probably say that in tankers was Iranian oil. Perhaps Trump decided to move from words to action.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3006 on: June 13, 2019, 11:42:59 AM »
One tanker sank with a cargo of oil in 75 thousand tons of oil. This will probably be one of the largest environmental disasters in history.

A torpedo was allegedly used for the attack.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3007 on: June 13, 2019, 02:45:20 PM »
One tanker sank with a cargo of oil in 75 thousand tons of oil. This will probably be one of the largest environmental disasters in history.

A torpedo was allegedly used for the attack.

"One tanker sank" was a report from Iran State media.
Latest from the bbc says not (yet)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48619771
Quote
Dozens of crew members have been rescued after abandoning two oil tankers hit by explosions in the Gulf of Oman. Iran said it rescued the 21 crew members on board the Kokuka Courageous and the 23 on the Front Altair, though the US said its Navy had rescued some.

The cause of the blasts in one of the world's busiest oil routes is unclear and both vessels are still afloat.

The incident comes a month after four oil tankers were attacked off the UAE.

'Sabotaged' tanker in Gulf of Oman leaked oil

Oil prices rose as much as 4.5% from a near five-month low following Thursday's incident, Bloomberg reports.
What do we know about the explosions?
The cause has not been confirmed.

The Norwegian-owned Front Altair had been "attacked", the Norwegian Maritime Authority said, leading to three explosions on board.

Wu I-fang, a spokesman for Taiwan's state oil refiner CPC Corp, which chartered the Front Altair, said it was carrying 75,000 tonnes of naphtha and was "suspected of being hit by a torpedo", although this has not been confirmed. Other unverified reports suggested a mine attack.

The ship's owner, Frontline, said the Marshall Islands-flagged vessel was on fire but denied reports on Iran media it had sunk.

The operator of the Panama-flagged Kokuka Courageous, BSM Ship Management, said its crew abandoned ship and were rescued by a passing vessel.

The tanker was carrying methanol and was not in danger of sinking, a spokesman said.

It is currently located about 80 miles from Fujairah in the UAE and 16 miles from Iran. The cargo remains intact.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3008 on: June 13, 2019, 04:15:42 PM »
Thanks for clarifying. Tankers burn very strongly, the smoke is clearly visible from the satellites.





https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/13/oil-tanker-catches-fire-after-leaving-uae-port

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3009 on: June 13, 2019, 04:20:12 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/06/13/oil-tankers-blown-torpedoed-off-coast-oman-9933390/








SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3010 on: June 13, 2019, 04:37:02 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

Who would be interested in causing this damage, or creating conflict?  The list is very, very long.
Maybe a false flag intended to stoke war against Iran.  Maybe an oil exporter not in the region, who wants higher prices for their exports?  CIA, Mossad, FSB, Houthis, ISIS, al Qaeda, even Saudi or UAE themselves.  Even NKorea might want to divert attention away from their nuclear activities.  Maybe Iran's Revolutionary Guards are stupid enough to do this.  This strikes me as the least likely of the list, though.

magnamentis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3011 on: June 13, 2019, 04:47:47 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

Who would be interested in causing this damage, or creating conflict?  The list is very, very long.
Maybe a false flag intended to stoke war against Iran.  Maybe an oil exporter not in the region, who wants higher prices for their exports?  CIA, Mossad, FSB, Houthis, ISIS, al Qaeda, even Saudi or UAE themselves.  Even NKorea might want to divert attention away from their nuclear activities.  Maybe Iran's Revolutionary Guards are stupid enough to do this.  This strikes me as the least likely of the list, though.

you ask the right question but the list is not long at all, at least if we count those who are pulling the strings in the back-ground. that they often use straw men for their purposes is another story.

what i'm saying is that i thing along the same path, i'm even quite sure that there is more to this than just a frustrated pirate or fisherman LOL ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3012 on: June 13, 2019, 05:16:42 PM »
More pictures. Major damage to the environment is obvious. Who did this?

Who would be interested in causing this damage, or creating conflict?  The list is very, very long.
Maybe a false flag intended to stoke war against Iran.  Maybe an oil exporter not in the region, who wants higher prices for their exports?  CIA, Mossad, FSB, Houthis, ISIS, al Qaeda, even Saudi or UAE themselves.  Even NKorea might want to divert attention away from their nuclear activities.  Maybe Iran's Revolutionary Guards are stupid enough to do this.  This strikes me as the least likely of the list, though.

If it did the CIA to start a war, how do you think the United States can win a quick victory or will there be no winners in the war (the war will be too long and hard)?

Americans have a strong army, but Iranians have a lot of fanaticism. Now the United States is little dependent on Arab oil, and Trump is a strong-willed leader striving for populist slogans to make America great again.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3013 on: June 13, 2019, 05:30:50 PM »
m

If it did the CIA to start a war, how do you think the United States can win a quick victory or will there be no winners in the war (the war will be too long and hard)?

Americans have a strong army, but Iranians have a lot of fanaticism. Now the United States is little dependent on Arab oil, and Trump is a strong-willed leader striving for populist slogans to make America great again.

My answer would be that a US-Iran war would be a profound catastrophe for both nations, and the entire world.  But the players don't ask me.  John Bolton and Mike Pompeo seem to have a different crystal ball, envisioning the Iranian people using the opportunity to ride a revolution to "freedom," being grateful for the opportunity to do so.  These two are demented idiots, but they could engineer the CIA into provoking the necessary conflict.

But I'm far from convinced that the other players on the list I presented are in the clear, either.  The list of potential suspects isn't short.  I'd select a different prime suspect, myself.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3014 on: June 13, 2019, 05:51:25 PM »
My answer would be that a US-Iran war would be a profound catastrophe for both nations, and the entire world.  But the players don't ask me.  John Bolton and Mike Pompeo seem to have a different crystal ball, envisioning the Iranian people using the opportunity to ride a revolution to "freedom," being grateful for the opportunity to do so.  These two are demented idiots, but they could engineer the CIA into provoking the necessary conflict.

But I'm far from convinced that the other players on the list I presented are in the clear, either.  The list of potential suspects isn't short.  I'd select a different prime suspect, myself.

Thanks for the answer. Hopefully, pacifism will prevail.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3015 on: June 13, 2019, 05:57:04 PM »
If Iran or one of its surrogates did not do the attack, then this may merely delay the USA / Iran conflict hotting up.

After all, the USA is pursuing a policy designed to bankrupt the country, presumably to force them to the table and agree a new nuclear / terrorism agreement enforceable by whom? Probably not the UN, as Trump despises it.

If someone is pursuing an economic war against your government probably  with a view to regime change, what is the rational response of that regime? To make the price the aggressor has to pay of equal or greater damage to them. In this case, the damage required is to Trump, who will lose the 2020 election if the economy tanks or he gets the USA into a hot war.

In my erstwhile travels here and there, I met a few Iranians, most of whom had no love for their current regime. But some fought to the death in the 1980's war with Iraq, so had no love for the USA, and said that any foreign attack on Iran would be resisted. It is very different from Iraq, where Hussein's Republican Guard (with a few exceptions) did not resist the US invasion.

Yet another reason, if you have the money, to invest in solar / wind power + battery storage and an EV.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3016 on: June 13, 2019, 06:02:25 PM »
Another important point is that China is the main consumer of Arab oil, like Europe. Therefore, the chaos in the Gulf will be beneficial to Trump, as a weakening of the main geopolitical competitors. Perhaps this is the main goal of the looming conflict, and not a quick victory in Iran.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3017 on: June 13, 2019, 06:05:02 PM »
In any case, a possible conflict will have dire consequences for the environment. I read that burning wells in Kuwait were extinguished for about a year. I hope the new disaster does not happen. All the more likely the new war will be very long.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3018 on: June 13, 2019, 06:32:58 PM »
Yet another reason, if you have the money, to invest in solar / wind power + battery storage and an EV.

I fear that the business will do otherwise. It will replace Arab oil with shale or bituminous oil from North America, or even worse with cheap coal.

During big wars, nobody cares about the environment. Countries have no problem destroying oil tankers and wells.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3019 on: June 13, 2019, 09:53:41 PM »
Its in China's interests to reduce its level of oil and gas imports from countries that are not "friendly" and through means that are easily stopped by its enemies (i.e. the sea routes from the Middle East to China), given the rapidly escalating conflict between it and the USA.

They can do this in multiple ways:
- Increase the amount of oil and gas imported through pipeline from Russia, Central Asia and Iran. Building such pipelines takes many years, but some will be coming on line in the next year or two. They could also use oil trains as an emergency option, running through the interiors of Russia and China.
- Rapidly accelerate the move to EV's, targeting the highest mileage drivers (i.e. taxi drivers, delivery people, buses) first. I don't have stats but mileage may follow the 80/20 rule, which may be even more true of China where private drivers tend not to drive long distances (there are high speed trains for that).
- Increase taxes and other negative incentives for people to use ICE vehicles, also put a "no more ICE sales" date relatively soon, such as 2025 and force the scrapping of cars that don't meet a given mpg level.
- Target long-haul truck delivery for movement to trains, and heavily fund research and production of electric heavy trucks.

In a truly conflictual situation, such as the US attacking Iran or the US sanctioning oil and gas imports to China, all of the above plus more (e.g. the banning of non-essential car trips) could be done at a more rapid pace. Add in rapidly expanding wind, solar and nuclear capacity.

The end result will be a China self sufficient in energy (great for the trade balance) when Russia is included and many, many years ahead of the US in EV's and the related technologies (e.g. batteries). China is also expanding its coal production enough to become self sufficient (no more coal imports from Australia), imports are relatively small compared to overall consumption.

The other result once the conflictual fallout has been dealt with will be a structural reduction in oil demand, as other countries (India?) can copy China's model of moving away from the dependence on oil imports (an increasing issue for India). That will be devastating for the Tar Sands, Deep Sea Oil, Fracking and many of the MENA governments. Also, a huge headache for Russia as demand for its oil may stay stable but the price will fall substantially. Its Natural Gas exports should not be negatively impacted.

This reality is coming, outright hostilities will just bring it along quicker - with a last hurrah for the oil producers as prices spike during the hostilities and the clean up period. Very much like what happened after the 1970's price spikes, the industrialized countries ramped up energy efficiency and looked for domestic/non OPEC supplies of energy. The 1980's and 1990's were not kind to the oil producers.





vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3020 on: June 13, 2019, 10:14:07 PM »
Mike Pompeo Blames Iran for Oil Tanker Attacks in Gulf of Oman; Presents No Evidence for His Claim
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/13/mike-pompeo-iran-gulf-oil-tanker-attacks


What Impact Could Oil Tanker Attacks Have On Global Economy?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/13/what-impact-could-oil-tanker-attacks-have-on-global-economy-gulf-oman


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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3021 on: June 13, 2019, 11:21:39 PM »
It looks like a local conspiracy to me, to get the oil price higher.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3022 on: June 14, 2019, 12:15:25 AM »
Conversely; it could be a means of tightening the screws on China, which gets a good fraction of its oil from the Gulf. Blaming Iran is a twofer.

If one had a Machiavellian mind it would seem to have Bolton and Stephen Miller's fingerprints on it. Israel or the Saudi Prince could provide plausible deniability.

-----------

Admiral James Greer: Now, understand, commander, that torpedo did not self-destruct. You heard it hit the hull. And I... [shows him his CIA identification] ...was never here.

Hunt for Red October- 1990
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3023 on: June 14, 2019, 01:13:53 AM »
Conversely; it could be a means of tightening the screws on China, which gets a good fraction of its oil from the Gulf. Blaming Iran is a twofer.

If one had a Machiavellian mind it would seem to have Bolton and Stephen Miller's fingerprints on it. Israel or the Saudi Prince could provide plausible deniability.
 

I don't think it matters much which importer gets oil from where.  Oil shipments are fungible.  All importers and exporters would see higher prices.  Highest bidder will always be able to get oil.  China wouldn't be hurt worse than Japan or NKorea, or Europe.  So I doubt China is the intended target.  All exporters outside of the middle east stand to profit. 

Most likely culprit, I'd suspect, would be Mossad/IDF.  With the Iran nuclear deal in tatters, getting the US to attack Iran is the only way to prevent Iran from making nukes.  That's been Likud's goal for years.  If Israel then "assists" the US in strikes, that may cement a rightward turn for the upcoming election there.  Netanyahu rather desperately needs that boost, because without greater political strength, he faces probable prison for corruption.  And they have experience using limpet mines in covert operations.

Still, other players could have almost comparable motivations. 

I doubt we'll have good information to form a judgment, though.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3024 on: June 14, 2019, 06:48:52 AM »
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/13/politics/us-images-iranian-boat-removing-mine/index.html

Quote
(CNN)The United States military on Thursday released a video that it says shows an Iranian navy boat removing an unexploded mine attached to the hull of the Japanese-owned chemical tanker Kokura Courageous, one of two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday blamed Iran for attacking the Kokura Courageous and another ship, Norwegian-owned Front Altair, saying the assessment was based on intelligence. Later Thursday night, US Central Command released the video, which it says shows Iranian sailors removing a mine from the Kokura Courageous' hull.
In the video, a smaller boat is shown coming up to the side of the Japanese-owned tanker. An individual stands up on the bow of the boat and can be seen removing an object from the tanker's hull. The US says that object is likely an unexploded mine.

The attack comes at a time of high tensions between the US and Iran, and could provide more fodder for Iran hawks within the administration, whose recent Iran saber-rattling has frustrated President Donald Trump. One of them, national security adviser John Bolton, announced last month that the Pentagon was deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the Middle East in response to a "number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings" from Iran.
Earlier in the day, four US officials told CNN the US had the images.

One of the officials said the video came from a US military aircraft that was recording as it flew overhead.
The boat made the move even after the destroyer USS Bainbridge, as well as a US drone and P-8 aircraft, had been on the scene for four hours. US defense officials believe that the Iranians were seeking to recover evidence of their involvement in the attack.
Another of the officials told CNN that multiple Iranian small boats have entered the area where the Bainbridge continues to be on the scene, prompting US Central Command to issue a statement saying, "No interference with USS Bainbridge, or its mission, will be tolerated."
The two tankers -- one carrying oil and the other transporting chemicals -- were attacked in international waters near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. All crew members were evacuated and were safe, according to the owners of the two ships.
Images released by the US Central Command on Thursday showed crew from the USS Bainbridge assisting crew members of the Kokuka Courageous following their rescue.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3025 on: June 14, 2019, 06:50:12 AM »
It's horrible

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3026 on: June 14, 2019, 07:13:49 AM »
I think the main culprits will be local players, for a higher price. Or maybe China or India, to secure future supplies. They have less oil reserves than what's left in the north sea (30 billion barrels), or the US (25 billion barrels conventional oil, without shale oil) . And they have a population that's much bigger. Almost 3 billion together. And many small players in asia are running out of oil. And the only way to secure that supply is boots on the ground.

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3027 on: June 14, 2019, 07:33:32 AM »
When 2 dogs are fighting for a bone, than we know what the 3th dog is doing. He grabs it and enjoys it. And i think the US is one of the fighting dogs. So who is the 3 th dog ?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3028 on: June 14, 2019, 08:56:29 AM »
The ones who already have a lot of renewables. Gives them a headstart.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3029 on: June 18, 2019, 01:04:03 AM »
I stopped going to DeSmog.ca when they broadened their scope, in the past I could see 5 to 7 trains with 20 to 120 cars of dilbit rolling east through Winnipeg while driving vans for individuals with wheelchairs or going out for a smoke by the Red River and the CP bridge.  The article is a bit dated, but first I had heard of.  But of course, usOFa ingenuity. But maybe I will go back to looking at DeSmog.com. 

Virtual Pipelines: A Dangerous New Way to Transport Fracked Gas by Truck

https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/05/21/virtual-pipelines-fracking-compressed-natural-gas-trucks

They contract to rural hospitals, colleges,  etc, but also to transoport to hook into existing pipelines (and the transported nat gas is at a higher pressure than the pipeline which will simplify the  offloading).

Quote
But the destination of XNG’s virtual pipeline remains the Iroquois pipeline and the company’s trucks still ply her county’s rural roads. “There are no shoulders, there’s no room for error here,” she said. “We have 500,000 visitors every summer, so those trucks are sharing the road with our tourist visitors, and young children.” Near the base of a famously steep incline called Vickerman Hill, she spotted an XNG truck, coming down into the town of Mohawk on state route 28. At the same moment, waiting for the truck to pass so it could turn across 28, was a school bus. “The parents with children on that bus have no idea,” said Dillingham. “People don’t know how dangerous this is.”

There are no easy solutions, but there are way too many 60 (and +) year olds driving rigs 60 hours a week in the middle of the usOFa.

Video of the loading of a trailer, there is some nice kit there, video from one of the big rig shippers.


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3030 on: June 19, 2019, 03:07:40 PM »
United States Spend Ten Times More On Fossil Fuel Subsidies Than Education

Quote
A new International Monetary Fund (IMF) study shows that USD$5.2 trillion was spent globally on fossil fuel subsidies in 2017. The equivalent of over 6.5% of global GDP of that year, it also represented a half-trillion dollar increase since 2015 when China ($1.4 trillion), the United States ($649 billion) and Russia ($551 billion) were the largest subsidizers.

You could do three energy transformations to renewables for that money.

We only have to transform once though.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3031 on: June 19, 2019, 04:30:55 PM »
In a stunning display of cognitive dissonance, Canada has approved the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline expansion less than 24 hours after declaring a climate emergency.
The pipeline is intended to facilitate the growth of production from the bitumen mines (Tar sands) in Alberta. Alberta is already the source of close to half Canada's carbon emissions.
Not that Canada was on track o meet its Paris commitments of carbon reduction, but this decision slams the door firmly shut.
If the pipeline actually gets built- there is considerable opposition and this is the third time Canada has approved the pipeline. Previous attempts to get it built have been stymied by lack of social licence and the courts.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/06/18/news/canada-approves-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-second-time

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3032 on: June 19, 2019, 06:56:44 PM »
Not a proud time to be a Canadian, and Trudeau completely shreds yet another campaign promise. I pray for a breakthrough by the Greens in the election in the Fall, at least to become the official third party (the NDP are useless- rolling over for fossil fuel interests in Alberta then getting deservedly thrashed at the next election).

The Liberals have proven themselves to be liars on the climate, the Conservatives (who will probably win in the Fall) are pretty much climate deniers. So maybe a full-blown Green breakthrough the election after? One can dream ...

I continue to think that the Tar Sands will end up as the Biggest Open Air Museum In The WorldTM within ten years as government policies and transport electrification kills off the high cost oil suppliers first.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3033 on: June 19, 2019, 07:20:31 PM »
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I continue to think that the Tar Sands will end up as the Biggest Open Air Museum In The WorldTM within ten years as government policies and transport electrification kills off the high cost oil suppliers first.

Building fossil fuel infrastructure that will take years to complete and is likely to be made obsolete within a decade or so seems very foolish to me.

As for Trudeau, is he turning non-green or is he doing what must be done sometimes in order to stay in office?  Sometimes one has to pick their battles.  You have to let something 'win' that you don't actually support because getting kicked out of office would mean that you would have no opportunity to accomplish some things you think very important.

I know little about Trudeau but I can imagine him thinking "Well, let them go ahead and spend their money on a pipeline that will probably carry very little oil, at best, before it's pulled up and sold for scrap.  In exchange I should get less opposition for doing things I think need to get done."

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3034 on: June 20, 2019, 02:51:33 AM »
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I continue to think that the Tar Sands will end up as the Biggest Open Air Museum In The WorldTM within ten years as government policies and transport electrification kills off the high cost oil suppliers first.

Building fossil fuel infrastructure that will take years to complete and is likely to be made obsolete within a decade or so seems very foolish to me.

As for Trudeau, is he turning non-green or is he doing what must be done sometimes in order to stay in office?  Sometimes one has to pick their battles.  You have to let something 'win' that you don't actually support because getting kicked out of office would mean that you would have no opportunity to accomplish some things you think very important.

I know little about Trudeau but I can imagine him thinking "Well, let them go ahead and spend their money on a pipeline that will probably carry very little oil, at best, before it's pulled up and sold for scrap.  In exchange I should get less opposition for doing things I think need to get done."

One hopes you are right Bob, and that your final suggestion is the truth. I'm afraid that calculations around staying in power are his driving force. Canada's Liberal party genuinely believe that they are the country's natural governing party, and therefore anything they can do to stay in power is better for the country, compared to the other guys getting in. I suspect that rboyd has it dialled in- and I share his hope that the Green party breaks through this fall.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3035 on: June 20, 2019, 03:09:16 AM »
Like I said, I don't know much about Trudeau.  My impression is that he is one of the "good guys" but my reference is the POS we have heading our administration.  If he's not working on climate change please fill me in.

The Greens getting more power, I assume, would allow Trudeau to do more green stuff?  Or would he fight against their desires?  And hopefully Canada's Green Party is not as worthless as ours. 

My comment was an attempt to remind people that in politics it's almost impossible to be 100% true to "the cause".  You can only do that when a significant majority of voters agree and support you.  And that hardly ever happens outside periods when the country is involved in a war that seems to threaten the existence of the country.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3036 on: June 20, 2019, 03:36:37 AM »
Rocket Hits ExxonMobil, Other Oil Firms in Iraq   
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1019181

BASRA, Iraq — A rocket landed at a residential and operations headquarters of several global major oil companies, including U.S. giant ExxonMobil, near Iraq's southern city of Basra early on Wednesday, wounding three Iraqi workers, police said.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility. It came after two separate attacks in as many days on bases housing U.S. military personnel in Iraq, as tension increases between the United States and Iran.

... Other companies operating at the site include Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Italian Eni SpA, the oil officials said.

Police said the rocket was a short-range Katyusha missile that landed 100 meters from the part of the site used as a residence and operations center by Exxon.

Burjesia is near the Zubair oilfield operated by Eni.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3037 on: June 20, 2019, 09:02:16 AM »
Like I said, I don't know much about Trudeau.  My impression is that he is one of the "good guys" but my reference is the POS we have heading our administration.  If he's not working on climate change please fill me in.

Pretty Boy Trudeau, what to say. Apparently to be very rude in colloquial French one might say un minet?

Janus had only two faces, but Trudeau was a master of being able to be all things to all men. That works fine when campaigning to get into power, but now he is in power and has to make decisions.

It seems that that damn additional pipeline will increase capacity from 300,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. Imagine how much environmental destruction in Alberta as the tar sands spread out across Alberta. And  bet subsidies, overt and covert, will be there to encourage those developments to proceed forthwith. There were some posts not so long ago about how little real cash had been put aside for the clean up and how little had been done.

And that's only part of the story..
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A new round of First Nations consultations was launched along with a review by Canada's national energy regulator on the project's impact on the coastal waters. The regulator recommended the project be approved earlier this year.

It also issued over 160 conditions and recommendations to mitigate the environmental impacts on the whales and on the Salish Sea, a busy inland network of waterways ranging from just north of Vancouver to Puget Sound in Washington.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48641293

ps: And the volume of water required, and what happens to the wastewater -

https://climateactionnetwork.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/WaterandTarSandsReport_FINAL.pdf
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11 million litres of toxic waste from the tar sands leak into Athabasca River and watershed daily.
Added up over a year, this is enough toxic waste to fill Toronto’s Rogers Centre two and a half times.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 09:12:50 AM by gerontocrat »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3038 on: June 20, 2019, 09:07:52 AM »
What else has Trudeau done that upsets the green interests or the left?

I'd like to know the larger picture.  I'm not a 'one strike and you're out' type.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3039 on: June 20, 2019, 09:45:36 AM »
The ones who already have a lot of renewables. Gives them a headstart.

I suspect that a big war will lead to great damage to the global economy. As a result, developed countries become impoverished and cannot subsidize renewable energy.

Meanwhile, the war is getting closer:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/20/middleeast/iran-drone-claim-hnk-intl/index.html

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Iran claims to have shot down US spy drone

(CNN)Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards claimed Thursday to have shot down an "intruding American spy drone" after it entered Iranian airspace, amid increased hostility between Washington and Tehran.

Iran's state-run Press TV said the US-made RQ-4 Global Hawk was shot down in the country's southern coastal province of Hormozgan, near the Strait of Hormuz.
CNN cannot independently verify the details in the Iranian state media report.
Press TV quoted Cap. Bill Urban, a spokesman for the US Central Command, as saying "no US aircraft were operating in Iranian airspace" Thursday. CNN has reached out to the Pentagon for comment.
The Trump administration said Monday it would send 1,000 additional troops and more military resources to the Middle East in response to what Washington called "hostile behavior by Iranian forces that threaten United States personnel and interests across the region."
US officials blame Iran for conducting attacks against oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and the US President himself last week accused Iran of being behind the provocation, telling Fox News: "It was them that did it."
Tehran has categorically denied the accusations, and President Hassan Rouhani said the country does not seek war but "is determined to show its hopefulness and vitality and defeat the enemy's plot."
Iran has previously been accused of targeting US drones.
In the hours before the attack on the two tankers earlier this month, the Iranians spotted a US drone flying overhead and launched a surface-to-air missile at the unmanned aircraft, a US official told CNN.
In 2014, the Iran's armed forces revealed what it claimed was a copy of a stealth American drone "commandeered" by Tehran in 2011.
Northrop Grumman, the weapons manufacturer that builds the RQ-4 Global Hawk, describes the aircraft as a "premier provider of persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance information."
It can fly more than 30 hours at a time at a maximum altitude of 60,000 feet (about 18,000 meters) and with a range of 12,300 nautical miles.
Since joining the US Air Force fleet in 2001, the Gobal Hawk has amassed more than 250,000 flight hours in support of military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, North Africa and the Asia-Pacific.
Relations between Iran and the United States have deteriorated since May 2018, when Washington chose to leave the 2015 nuclear deal the Iranian regime negotiated with world powers and reimpose crippling sanctions on Iran's economy.
Trump and many conservatives in the US had long criticized the deal, which allowed Iran to stockpile limited amounts of enriched uranium and heavy water produced in that process, exporting any excess.
Doing so has become extremely difficult after the US revoked waivers that allowed Iran to export those excess stockpiles, effectively forcing Iran to halt enrichment or ignore the limits, which it is now doing.
After a year of waiting, Rouhani announced last month that it would reduce its "commitments to the deal," but not fully withdraw from it.
Iran then announced this week that it would resume nuclear enrichment activities, accelerating uranium enrichment to 3.7% -- above the 3.67% mandated by the nuclear deal. Enrichment at this level is enough to continue powering parts of the country's energy needs, but not enough to construct a nuclear bomb.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3040 on: June 20, 2019, 02:23:51 PM »
In addition, the new war is terrible uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases from burning tankers and wells. Surely the loser Iran will destroy the oil infrastructure (its and the neighbors), like Saddam Hussein in 1991.







This can easily destabilize a fragile climate system.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3041 on: June 20, 2019, 03:35:22 PM »
Actually the oil at the wells would be burned anyway. It would burn after adding extra CO2 burden of transport. It is a waste but it is just part of what we burn daily. The system is also already destabilized as you can see daily too. 




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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3042 on: June 20, 2019, 03:41:29 PM »
Actually the oil at the wells would be burned anyway. It would burn after adding extra CO2 burden of transport. It is a waste but it is just part of what we burn daily. The system is also already destabilized as you can see daily too.

The whole nightmare in the rate of climate change. The faster we emit greenhouse gases, the greater the likelihood of a tectonic disaster due to melting glaciers.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3043 on: June 20, 2019, 04:35:48 PM »
Rocket Hits ExxonMobil, Other Oil Firms in Iraq   
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1019181

BASRA, Iraq — A rocket landed at a residential and operations headquarters of several global major oil companies, including U.S. giant ExxonMobil, near Iraq's southern city of Basra early on Wednesday, wounding three Iraqi workers, police said.

This is extremely worrisome.  I find it quite improbable that Iran is actually responsible--it would be a thunderously stupid act for them.  A missile strike that missed its target I think might be a "false flag" action.
Several different players might want to provoke an open war between the US and Iran.

The US would surely just attack infrastructure from the air, aimed at disrupting Iran's nuclear program, but also for "punishment."  Iran might then attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.  Or might not, as further escalation would then result.

Still, oil prices would spike higher, probably already are.

I worry that a domino effect could have profound consequences here.  Looking at history, there are examples that may be illuminating.  One example is presented here:

Eric Cline | 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed


gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3044 on: June 20, 2019, 05:44:00 PM »
The price of crude goes down when things calm down - markets worried about slumping demand, fear of a recession.

The price of crude goes up when things get not calm - Iran, tankers, drone etc - markets worried about supply shortfalls.. fear of a recession.
 
In both cases the price of gold goes up. Safe havens (US treasuries also up). Spot price of gold a bit higher than at any time in the last 5 years.

i.e. fear rules the market as chances of a recession increase.
If US / China fudge some sort of an agreement to cease economic hostilities at the G-20 next week then the fear index will lower.
If no agreement then the fear index will increase.

By November 2020 a lot of US workers could be losing their jobs, unless Trump backs down over Iran and China and just kicks in the face of the defenceless. e.g. Venezuela.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:13:50 PM by gerontocrat »
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3045 on: June 20, 2019, 06:36:23 PM »
The price of crude goes down ... fear of a recession.

The price of crude goes up ... fear of a recession

I noticed that! Are you implying markets aren't efficient?  ;)

Bitcoin goes up also BTW.


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3046 on: June 20, 2019, 07:09:27 PM »
What else has Trudeau done that upsets the green interests or the left?

I'd like to know the larger picture.  I'm not a 'one strike and you're out' type.

Well, here are eight questions for Trudeau:
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2019/06/19/Hard-Questions-PM-Pipelines-Climate-Emergency/
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3047 on: June 20, 2019, 07:46:54 PM »
Trump confirmed the destruction of the largest and most expensive drone in history.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa/trump-says-iran-made-a-very-big-mistake-by-shooting-down-drone-idUSKCN1TL07P

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Trump says Iran 'made a very big mistake' by shooting down drone
Parisa Hafezi, Phil Stewart
6 MIN READ

DUBAI/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said Iran made “a very big mistake” by shooting down a U.S. military drone that Tehran said was on a spy mission over its territory, in an incident that fanned fears of wider military conflict in the Middle East.

The United States, which called the event an “unprovoked attack” in international air space, is pursuing a campaign to isolate Iran to contain its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and limit its role in regional wars.

It was the latest in an escalating series of incidents in the Gulf region, a critical artery for global oil supplies, since mid-May including explosive strikes on six oil tankers as Tehran and Washington have edged toward confrontation.

“Iran made a very big mistake!” Trump said in a Twitter post.

It was unclear how the United States might respond and U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the top Democrat in Congress, said Washington had no appetite for war with Iran.

Iran has denied involvement in the tanker attacks, but global jitters about a new Middle East conflagration disrupting oil exports have triggered a jump in crude prices. They surged by more than $3 to above $63 a barrel on Thursday.

U.S. MIDEAST FORCES
Upping the ante, Washington said on Monday it would deploy about 1,000 more troops, along with Patriot missiles and manned and unmanned surveillance aircraft, to the Middle East on top of a 1,500-troop increase announced after the May tanker attacks.

Iranian state media said the “spy” drone was brought down over the southern Iranian province of Hormozgan, which is on the Gulf, with a locally made “3 Khordad” missile.

A U.S. official said the drone, formally called an RQ-4A Global Hawk High-Altitude, Long, Endurance Unmanned Aircraft System, had been downed in international air space over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of the world’s seaborne oil exits the Gulf..

Navy Captain Bill Urban, a spokesman for the U.S. military’s Central Command, said Iran’s account that the drone had been flying over Iranian territory was false.

“This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international air space,” Urban said. The drone, he added, was downed over the Strait of Hormuz at approximately 2335 GMT - in the early morning hours of local time in the Gulf.

Separately, a U.S. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity the debris field from the drone was in international waters in the Strait and U.S. naval assets have been dispatched to the area.

Iran’s foreign ministry said the drone had violated Iranian air space and warned of the consequences of such “illegal and provocative” measures.

Independent confirmation of the drone’s location when it was brought down was not immediately available.

A Iranian Revolutionary Guards statement said the drone’s identification transponder had been switched off “in violation of aviation rules and was moving in full secrecy” when it was downed, Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported.

IRANIAN “RED LINE”
“Our air space is our red line and Iran has always responded and will continue to respond strongly to any country that violates our air space,” Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, told Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

The RQ-4A’s manufacturer, Northrop Grumman, says on its website that it can fly for over 24 hours at a time at altitudes higher than 10 miles (16 km), with an operational range of 8,200 nautical miles.

The Trump administration sought on Wednesday to rally global support for its pressure on Iran by displaying limpet mine fragments it said came from an oil tanker damaged in the June 13 attacks, saying the ordnance closely resembled mines publicly displayed in Iranian military parades.

European diplomats have said more evidence is needed to pinpoint responsibility for the tanker strikes.

The U.S. sanctions net draped over Iran, scuttling its oil exports and barring it from the dollar-dominated global finance system, have hammered Iran’s economy, undoing the promise of trade rewards from the 2015 deal to curb its nuclear ambitions.

Trump has sent forces including aircraft carriers, B-52 bombers and troops to the Middle East over the past few weeks. Iran said last week it was responsible for the security of the Strait of Hormuz, calling on American forces to leave the Gulf.

Tehran has also said it will shortly suspend compliance with the nuclear deal’s curbs on its uranium enrichment, meant to block any pathway to nuclear weapons capability, and threatened to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

But Trump - who sees the nuclear deal as flawed to Iran’s advantage and requiring renegotiation - and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have both said they have no interest in starting a war.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3048 on: June 20, 2019, 07:53:22 PM »
The price of each drone is 100-200 million
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_RQ-4_Global_Hawk

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Unit cost   
US$131.4M (FY13)
US$222.7M (with R&D)

In general, the world has stood on the brink of the most serious crisis since the Cuban crisis of 1962. In the war with Iran, it is also possible the large-scale use of nuclear weapons.



Only now instead of the Kennedy pacifist, Trump hawk is sitting in the White House.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3049 on: June 20, 2019, 08:13:40 PM »
Theoretically, Iran can strike even against American bases in Germany.