$10 oil
There is a significant probability of a one-two punch from which oil prices will never recover:
1. A major global recession which we are well overdue for and the level of debt and high risk finance will exacerbate - and the central banks have much less ammunition left to offset.
2. By the the time recovery fully sets in, the % share of EV's in China will be at a point to cap oil demand (it will probably beat 10% by the end of this year), with other countries attempting to rapidly catch up with China (so as not to "lose" the EV industry, and related industries, to them).
The result would be a rerun of the 1990's with $10 oil, and a disaster for the major oil exporting countries in the Middle East, Africa, South America (Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil) plus Russia, plus Alberta and the "fracking" US states. China, Japan, and Europe will be laughing all the way to the bank. A lot of oil companies will also fail, with major financial fallout.