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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3450 on: January 24, 2020, 08:41:36 PM »
In the short term, it looks like the Coronavirus is going to really crimp demand.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/oil-markets-fuel-demand-virus-outbreak-in-china-in-focus.html

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Oil drops more than 1%, heads for weekly loss on China virus concerns
Published Thu, Jan 23 2020

Oil slipped below $62 a barrel on Friday and was heading for a weekly decline as concern that a virus in China may spread, curbing travel and oil demand, overshadowed supply cuts.

The virus has prompted the suspension of public transport in 10 Chinese cities. Health authorities fear the infection rate could accelerate over the Lunar New Year holiday this weekend, when millions of Chinese travel to their homes and abroad.

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Nonetheless, the upside for prices was limited. Oil inventories in the wider industrialized world are above the five-year average according to OPEC figures, which analysts say is limiting the impact on prices of supply losses.

“Such is the bearish pressure that a raft of ongoing crude supply outages are not gaining much traction,” said analysts at JBC Energy in a report.

Such outages include the shutdown this week of the bulk of oil supply in OPEC producer Libya.

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Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said all options are open at the next OPEC+ meeting, which is scheduled for March, including further cuts, Al Arabiya television reported.

In the long term, EVs are on the way.  Price parity with gas vehicles on mid-size and smaller models is now projected for 2022 and improvements in battery range and charging time are continuously being announced.

Peak oil demand in the next few years is probable.  That will lead to a collapse of what's left of the US shale drillers after the most recent round of bankruptcies.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3451 on: January 24, 2020, 08:46:43 PM »
China and India have been responsible for most of the oil demand growth in the past two years, and neither country is poised to keep it going.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-oil-kemp-column/priced-for-perfection-oil-slides-on-fears-coronavirus-will-hit-demand-kemp-idUSKBN1ZN1MH

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Priced for perfection, oil slides on fears coronavirus will hit demand: Kemp
John Kemp


LONDON (Reuters) - China’s outbreak of novel coronavirus has sent oil prices sharply lower as traders reassess whether the country will be able to generate the strong economic growth needed to rebalance the market in 2020.

China and its neighbour India accounted for more than half of all incremental oil consumption between 2013 and 2018 so the economic growth of these two giant Asian economies is critical to the oil market.

Both suffered a sharp economic slowdown in late 2018 and through 2019 as a result of slumping auto sales, tightening credit conditions and, in China’s case, trade conflict with the United States.

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The giant bet on rising oil prices was essentially a gamble that growth in China and India would pick up following the Phase 1 trade deal and fiscal and monetary stimulus measures enacted by both governments.

The coronavirus outbreak detected in the city of Wuhan, and the quarantine measures introduced to contain it, have forced traders to reassess the likely timing and speed of any economic recovery in China.

China’s central and provincial governments have introduced restrictions on public events, tourist attractions and transport in an effort to increase “social distance” and reduce person-to-person transmission of the virus.

Many businesses and individuals will also change their behavior voluntarily to reduce contact with potential virus carriers, cutting the demand for products and services, such as conferences, cinemas and travel.

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If the coronavirus outbreak extends the economic slowdown in China and the rest of Asia for a few extra months, oil prices will need to remain lower for longer to induce a further corresponding slowdown in U.S. shale output and an extension of production cuts by oil-exporting countries in the OPEC+ group.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3452 on: January 24, 2020, 09:10:08 PM »
The Chinese economy grew by 6% last year, the lowest growth in 30 years.  And even that figure masks many problems that will slow growth if not lead to a recession or worse.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-latest-GDP-growth-figures-reveal-bad-news-for-2020

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China's latest GDP growth figures reveal bad news for 2020

Economy is slowing and nation cannot rely on another massive boost in credit
Christopher Balding
January 21, 2020

hat China's real GDP growth for the fourth quarter last year came in at 6% surprised absolutely no one.

That took full-year growth to 6.1%. This was the lowest figure in 29 years but above the magic 6% level that represents a psychological barrier for Beijing but nothing much in reality. There was no way the reported rate would have been allowed to fall below 6%.

Still, concealed within those figures was a bleak, worrying outlook for the Chinese economy which seems much weaker than headline data indicate.

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While real estate sector credit, and consequently building, are booming, potentially storing up problems for later, there is little evidence of robust growth in the manufacturing and industrial sectors. In 2019, clothes output was down 6%, metal-cutting machine tools 19%, power generation equipment 15% and packaging equipment off 5%. These do not speak to a robustly healthy economy, rather of excess capacity and years of overinvestment.

This broader weakness is trickling down to the consumer and services sectors. Smartphone and automobile sales are both down about 8%; monthly active users on food delivery apps were down more than 10% in December 2019 compared with a year earlier.

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With accumulated debt running above annual income, Chinese households are now comparatively more indebted than their U.S. peers. It becomes harder to increase investment and consumption at the rates targeted by the Chinese Communist Party's central planners as consumers and businesses reach the limits of feasible debt loads while interest rates remain well above American, European or even Japanese bench marks.

Even if 2020 is the year China really starts deleveraging, it will likely be a decade or more before it reaches more sustainable levels.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-gdp-provinces/many-of-chinas-provinces-cut-2020-gdp-growth-targets-despite-easing-trade-tension-idUSKBN1ZL0EA

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January 21, 2020
Many of China's provinces cut 2020 GDP growth targets despite easing trade tension
Gabriel CROSSLEY


BEIJING, Jan 22 (Reuters) - About two-thirds of China’s provinces, regions and municipalities have cut their 2020 growth targets from last year, despite easing trade tensions with the United States.

The lower regional targets reinforce expectations of a further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, after gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at its slowest pace in nearly three decades in 2019, weighed down by weak domestic and global demand.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3046165/chinas-middle-class-frets-good-times-are-over-amid-sliding

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China’s middle class frets the ‘good times’ are over amid sliding house prices, stagnant wages

    The urban middle class have been among the biggest winners of China’s economic boom over the past five decades, but their confidence has been shaken
    China’s economic growth has slowed and their incomes and assets are taking a hit, with non-essential spending on cars, home appliances and private education cut

He Huifeng

Published: 16 Jan, 2020

While the US-China trade war has been on the lips of politicians and analysts from Beijing to Washington, millions of middle class Chinese are increasingly anxious about a problem closer to home: the sliding value of their incomes and assets as the country’s breakneck economic growth begins to stutter.

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“There is no doubt that our family’s net worth will shrink this year,” said Alice Zhou, a Beijing-based businesswoman in her 40s. “This can be confirmed from the obvious decline of business and property prices among my friends and I in the past couple of years.”

According to Zhou, the “good times” of 2015-16 are over having been forced to close around half of the cafes and indoor amusement parks she owned in Beijing and Tianjin since 2018.

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Xu Yipeng, a middle class resident in Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong province,
China’s manufacturing hub and economic growth engine, has been struggling to sell a 80 square metre (860 sq ft) two-bedroom flat since mid-2018 despite having dropped the price from 4.6 million yuan (US$667,000) to 4.1 million yuan.

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Two years ago, it was not uncommon for China’s businesspeople to gather over dinner to talk about buying property, asset appreciation and consumption upgrades. But now, the conversation frequently veers towards a weakening property market and a growing shortage of capital for companies, explained Xu.

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First-tier cities – including Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai – have witnessed a notable drop in home and rental prices, with data pointing to a slowdown as a growing number of developers slash prices. Compared with the highest point in April 2017, Beijing’s average residential property prices in November fell by about 18.5 per cent, according to a report conducted by the National Academy of Economic Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

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For households in China, real estate accounts for 70 per cent of family wealth, while net growth in property assets accounts for 91 per cent of household per capita growth, according to a report by the China Economic Trends Research Institute in October.

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“Now I realise the problem is serious. House prices are depreciating and may continue to depreciate, and it has started to become difficult to sell.”

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Car sales in China fell for a 18th consecutive month in December, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), who said total sales for 2019 fell 8.2 per cent to just under 25.8 million. CAAM estimates that total sales in 2020 would be 25.31 million units, down 2 per cent year-on-year.

Mobile phone shipments in China dipped to 389 million units in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2 per cent, according to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. In December alone, they fell 14.7 per cent from a year earlier to around 30.44 million units.

There's more.  But the bottom line is that China's recent growth over the past two decades was primarily built on debt and that they don't have much more debt capacity.  They overbuilt power plants (coal plants run at less than 50% capacity), airports, housing (look up "ghost cities") and have kept on building those things even though there's no demand for them.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3453 on: January 24, 2020, 09:36:38 PM »
U.S.

Court Throws Hurdle in Front of Washington State’s Drive to Reduce Carbon Emissions
Quote
The Washington State Supreme Court sided with the fossil fuel industry on Thursday, moving to severely limit a state rule aimed at capping the state's greenhouse gas emissions and raising the question of whether Washington—and potentially other states—will be able to rein in the nation's rising tailpipe emissions.

In a 5 to 4 decision, the court upheld a 2017 lower-court ruling that the state's Clean Air Act could not be applied to companies that sell or distribute petroleum or natural gas, because they do not directly emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning the fuel.

"The issue is not whether man-made climate change is real—it is," Chief Justice Debra Stephens wrote in the majority opinion. "Today we hold that by its plain language and structure, the (Washington Clean Air) Act limits the applicability of emission standards to actual emitters."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17012020/washington-emissions-lawsuit-tailpipe-greenhouse-gas
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3454 on: January 25, 2020, 12:05:25 AM »
U.S.

Court Throws Hurdle in Front of Washington State’s Drive to Reduce Carbon Emissions
Quote
The Washington State Supreme Court sided with the fossil fuel industry on Thursday, moving to severely limit a state rule aimed at capping the state's greenhouse gas emissions and raising the question of whether Washington—and potentially other states—will be able to rein in the nation's rising tailpipe emissions.

In a 5 to 4 decision, the court upheld a 2017 lower-court ruling that the state's Clean Air Act could not be applied to companies that sell or distribute petroleum or natural gas, because they do not directly emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning the fuel.

"The issue is not whether man-made climate change is real—it is," Chief Justice Debra Stephens wrote in the majority opinion. "Today we hold that by its plain language and structure, the (Washington Clean Air) Act limits the applicability of emission standards to actual emitters."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17012020/washington-emissions-lawsuit-tailpipe-greenhouse-gas

Fortunately the Governor (Inslee - D) and the majority of the State House (D) and Senate (which was controlled by Rs in 2015 and is now controlled by Ds) are in favor of passing legislation to address the issue.  The case in question was whether a State agency could enforce the provisions (affecting the refiners and distributers of gasoline instead of trying to regulate automobile emissions) that weren't explicitly detailed in the clean air legislation that was in force in 2015.  Gov. Inslee directed the State agency to enforce provisions in 2015 and the fossil fuel industry sued.

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Peter Zalal, a lead attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund, said the Washington Supreme Court ruling was narrow and merely clarified how the Legislature can interpret the Act. It doesn't stop lawmakers from writing new bills to accomplish their goals, he said.

Frustrated by inaction from the legislative body to act on climate change, Inslee directed the state's Department of Ecology in 2015 to use executive authority under the state's Clean Air Act to regulate carbon emissions. But the move was quickly challenged by industry groups, including the Association of Washington Business, the Washington Trucking Associations and the Western States Petroleum Association.

Quote
It's unclear whether Washington will now move forward with the more limited Clean Air Act rule defined by the court or pursue another route. In a statement on the governor's office website, Inslee said his administration was still reviewing the ruling, and noted that the challenge of reducing emissions now falls to the Legislature.

"This ruling would significantly affect the state's ability to reduce emissions," Inslee said in the statement Thursday. "This underscores the need for legislative action this year to combat climate change. I am optimistic we will see such legislation make it to my desk this session."

Much of that work is already in motion. Last month, Inslee unveiled several bills intended to reduce tailpipe pollution, including establishing a statewide clean fuel standard, requiring rideshare companies to reduce their emissions and installing EV charging stations at state facilities.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3455 on: January 25, 2020, 04:52:02 AM »
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/global-oil-and-gas-discoveries-reach-four-year-high-in-2019/

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GLOBAL OIL AND GAS DISCOVERIES REACH FOUR-YEAR HIGH IN 2019, BOOSTED BY EXXONMOBIL’S GUYANA SUCCESS

January 9, 2020

The world’s oil and gas explorers powered ahead and discovered 12.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2019, the highest volume since 2015, according to estimates from Rystad Energy. Last year recorded 26 discoveries of more than 100 million boe, with offshore regions dominating the list of new oil and gas deposits.



Quote
Guyana’s success story from 2018 continued in 2019, with ExxonMobil adding four new discoveries within its offshore Stabroek block, while Tullow Oil’s Jethro and Joe exploration wells established the presence of a working petroleum system to the west of the Stabroek block. Rystad Energy estimates that the discoveries in Guyana hold cumulative recoverable resources of around 1.8 billion boe.

“ExxonMobil can be declared explorer of the year for a second year in a row thanks to its ongoing efforts and results in Guyana, along with significant investments in Cyprus. The supermajor was exceptional, both in terms of discovered volumes and value creation from exploration,” says Palzor Shenga, a senior analyst on Rystad Energy’s upstream team.

The US company discovered around 1.07 billion boe in additional net resources last year. Rystad Energy estimates the value creation from these volumes to be around $2.7 billion, largely driven by the continued success in Guyana.

Off the coast of Mauritania, BP’s Orca gas field was not only the largest single discovery, but also the deepest-water find of 2019, estimated by Rystad Energy to hold about 1.3 billion boe of recoverable resources. Recent gas discoveries in the region now support plans to build an additional LNG hub in the Bir Allah area in Mauritania.

In Russia, Gazprom announced two discoveries in the Kara Sea, Dinkov in the Rusanovsky block and Nyarmeyskoye in the Nyarmeysky block. Rystad Energy estimates Gazprom’s 2019 discoveries to hold combined recoverable resources of around 1.5 billion boe, with Dinkov ranked as the second-largest find in 2019 world-wide.

Other key offshore discoveries in 2019 include Total’s Brulpadda in South Africa, ExxonMobil’s Glaucus in Cyprus, CNOOC’s Glengorm in the United Kingdom and Equinor’s Sputnik in the Norwegian sector of the Barents Sea.

Even so, many of 2019’s high-impact wells turned out to be duds, Shenga noted. “Although the discovered volumes for 2019 surpassed the preceding year, it was a disappointing year for high-profile wells as many prospects with significant estimated pre-drill resources failed to deliver. Over 10 billion barrels of estimated pre-drill volumes were at stake in wells that failed to encounter hydrocarbons.”



Quote
US independent Hess and Chinese state player CNOOC occupy the second and the third spots on the list of top explorers of 2019 in terms of value creation from new discoveries, with both benefiting from their partnership with ExxonMobil in Guyana’s Stabroek block. Hess added about $2 billion in value from new discoveries last year, while CNOOC had value creation of about $1.8 billion.

French major Total took fourth place, with about $873 million in value creation from its 2019 exploration activities. “Total’s value creation from exploration in 2019 was largely driven by the play-opening success with the Brulpadda find in South Africa,” says Shenga.

In 2020, Rystad Energy expects the global discovered volumes to continue the rising trend of recent years, with the list of upcoming wildcats including several high-impact wells along with some promising probes delayed from 2019.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3456 on: January 26, 2020, 12:11:12 AM »
Great set of graphs and tables! Looks like the Chinese (CNOOC) are pretty desperately looking for more oil given the number of well they are drilling.

Always nice to see ExxonMobil adding to their carbon bubble assets.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3457 on: January 26, 2020, 12:54:57 AM »
Well Casing Failures

This is a possible massive delayed emissions cost of the fracking revolution, as well casings and plugs fail at a higher rate than assumed by the industry across the 100,000s+ of fracked wells drilled. With a delay of about 10 years between plugging and leaking, this could become a big problem from the early 2020s onwards.

Methane emissions from wells after production finished

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Studies by Kang et al. 2014, Kang et al 2016, Boothroyd et al 2016, and Townsend-Small et al. 2016 have all measured methane emissions from abandoned wells. Both properly plugged and improperly abandoned wells have been shown to leak methane and other VOCs to the atmosphere as well as into the surrounding groundwater, soil, and surface waters. Leaks were shown to begin just 10 years after operators plugged the wells.

https://www.fractracker.org/2019/03/failing-abandoned-wells/

Lots of problems with in production wells as well ...

Fracked Wells Fail More

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The increasing pressures used to fracture the shale and number of frac hits in oil and gas wells may be contributing to the increasing problem of well casing failures, according to Dr. Arash Dahi-Taleghan, Associate Professor of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering at Pennsylvania State University.

“Nowadays, the problem is that they are not making only four or five fractures,” Dahi-Taleghan recently explained to the Journal of Petroleum Technology. “Sometimes, you have 150–200 fractures that are closely spaced together and the injections rates are high.” He also noted new techologies which use increased pressures and concluded that, “All of these things can put too much stress on the casing, as was not the case before.”

And that makes sense to a civil engineer like Ingraffea. Longer wells require higher pressure to blast the fracking fluids greater distances to fracture the shale along the length of the lateral, or horizontal portion of the well. That places greater stress on the whole well structure, he told DeSmog.

“You’re putting higher and different kinds of stress on the casing, and you are also subjecting the casing to many more repeated loadings because as you increase the lateral, you are going from five fracs to hundreds of fracs in some cases,” Ingraffea explained to DeSmog. “It all makes sense,” Ingraffea added about the increase in well casing failures.

Fracked oil and gas wells are built out of steel and cement, but they aren't invincible. When these materials are repeatedly stressed during fracking operations, failures are bound to happen.

Cost Cutting Makes It Worse

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“Casing is around 20 percent to 30 percent of the total well cost — that’s a huge amount of money, and because of constant budgeting issues, operators are choosing to pay the minimum cost of designing any well,” Christine Noshi, a petroleum engineer whose research focused on well casing integrity, told JPT.

Water contamination and methane leaks

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Well casing failures pose a huge risk for water contamination via fracking fluids, which contain a vast mixture of chemicals with various health risks. And these failures represent another way that oil and gas production can lead to releases of the powerful greenhouse gas methane.

According to Adams' 2017 paper in the Society of Petroleum Engineers, “Most observed failures have occurred in the shallow, uncemented sections of the hole,” which is pretty much the worst-case scenario from an environmental standpoint. Without cement to help contain the failing well, and especially at shallow depths, fracking fluids can blast through the internal lining and easily lead to groundwater contamination.

If uncemented sections are more likely to fail, why doesn’t the industry cement the full length of the well bore? Because many states don't require it, and using more cement adds higher costs to an already expensive process that producers are desperate to contain. Cement doesn't only provide a potential barrier between what's going on inside the well and the surrounding environment, but as Ingraffea explained to DeSmog, it provides more structural integrity to help the well withstand the extreme forces of the fracking process, which can reach pressures up to 15,000 pounds per square inch.

The worst-case scenario for failure can be a well blowout, which is a financial disaster for the operator and can result in large methane leaks, as Exxon saw with its well blowout in Ohio. Exxon’s investigation concluded that high pressure was the culprit behind the failed well casing.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/01/23/oil-gas-well-casing-failure-fracking-xto-ohio-blowout

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3458 on: January 27, 2020, 02:06:22 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-26/peak-permian-is-approaching-making-u-s-oil-independence-elusive

Quote
Peak Permian Is Approaching Faster Than You Think

The region that’s driving U.S. oil growth is already showing signs of peaking, making the goal of U.S. energy independence as elusive as ever.

The heart of America’s oil renaissance is found in the Permian basin, which is showing signs of maturing fast. And for shale basins, that’s not a good thing. If the rich petroleum region wanes, U.S. oil independence will remain elusive and the OPEC cartel may finally see off its greatest threat.

The Permian, spread across west Texas and southeast New Mexico, yields more than a third of all U.S. oil production and it has contributed about two-thirds of the past three years’ worth of growth. Its boom has allowed America to export more than 3 million barrels a day of crude on a regular basis since May — more than every OPEC country except Saudi Arabia and Iraq. But the U.S. still imports twice that volume. A slowdown in the Permian would see that gap widen again.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3459 on: January 27, 2020, 04:14:27 PM »
U.S.

Court Throws Hurdle in Front of Washington State’s Drive to Reduce Carbon Emissions
Quote
The Washington State Supreme Court sided with the fossil fuel industry on Thursday, moving to severely limit a state rule aimed at capping the state's greenhouse gas emissions and raising the question of whether Washington—and potentially other states—will be able to rein in the nation's rising tailpipe emissions.

The solution for states to implement legislation to reduce tailpipe emissions is so simple as to be almost laughable. Washington needs to pass legislation that increases gasoline taxes by 1000% over the next 10 years. Current gas tax rate is $0.49. To avoid punishing American consumers, income tax rates for persons with incomes in the bottom 80% should be reduced so that the effect is income neutral. Increasing the rate over 10 years will allow consumers and manufacturers to slowly shift to higher mpg ICE vehicles or EV's.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 07:43:31 PM by Shared Humanity »

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3460 on: January 27, 2020, 06:54:09 PM »
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/global-oil-and-gas-discoveries-reach-four-year-high-in-2019/

Quote
GLOBAL OIL AND GAS DISCOVERIES REACH FOUR-YEAR HIGH IN 2019, BOOSTED BY EXXONMOBIL’S GUYANA SUCCESS

January 9, 2020

The world’s oil and gas explorers powered ahead and discovered 12.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2019, the highest volume since 2015, according to estimates from Rystad Energy. Last year recorded 26 discoveries of more than 100 million boe, with offshore regions dominating the list of new oil and gas deposits.



Quote
Guyana’s success story from 2018 continued in 2019, with ExxonMobil adding four new discoveries within its offshore Stabroek block, while Tullow Oil’s Jethro and Joe exploration wells established the presence of a working petroleum system to the west of the Stabroek block. Rystad Energy estimates that the discoveries in Guyana hold cumulative recoverable resources of around 1.8 billion boe.

“ExxonMobil can be declared explorer of the year for a second year in a row thanks to its ongoing efforts and results in Guyana, along with significant investments in Cyprus. The supermajor was exceptional, both in terms of discovered volumes and value creation from exploration,” says Palzor Shenga, a senior analyst on Rystad Energy’s upstream team.

The US company discovered around 1.07 billion boe in additional net resources last year. Rystad Energy estimates the value creation from these volumes to be around $2.7 billion, largely driven by the continued success in Guyana.

Off the coast of Mauritania, BP’s Orca gas field was not only the largest single discovery, but also the deepest-water find of 2019, estimated by Rystad Energy to hold about 1.3 billion boe of recoverable resources. Recent gas discoveries in the region now support plans to build an additional LNG hub in the Bir Allah area in Mauritania.

In Russia, Gazprom announced two discoveries in the Kara Sea, Dinkov in the Rusanovsky block and Nyarmeyskoye in the Nyarmeysky block. Rystad Energy estimates Gazprom’s 2019 discoveries to hold combined recoverable resources of around 1.5 billion boe, with Dinkov ranked as the second-largest find in 2019 world-wide.

Other key offshore discoveries in 2019 include Total’s Brulpadda in South Africa, ExxonMobil’s Glaucus in Cyprus, CNOOC’s Glengorm in the United Kingdom and Equinor’s Sputnik in the Norwegian sector of the Barents Sea.

Even so, many of 2019’s high-impact wells turned out to be duds, Shenga noted. “Although the discovered volumes for 2019 surpassed the preceding year, it was a disappointing year for high-profile wells as many prospects with significant estimated pre-drill resources failed to deliver. Over 10 billion barrels of estimated pre-drill volumes were at stake in wells that failed to encounter hydrocarbons.”

Notice that most of the discoveries were natural gas fields, many of which were offshore.  Given the global glut in natural gas, many of those new fields wont be developed given the low prices for natural gas and the high cost of offshore facilities.

rboyd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3461 on: January 27, 2020, 08:59:38 PM »
I foresee a lot of relatively new LNG plants in places like Canada, Australia and the US standing unused due to the global gas glut, a slow down of the fracking boom, and the new pipelines (and Arctic LNG supplies) from Russia to Europe and China. No US "freedom molecules" for Europe.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3462 on: January 27, 2020, 11:12:18 PM »
The end of the bridge is coming for natural gas.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/natural-gas-bridge-nearing-end

Quote
Where Does the Natural Gas ‘Bridge’ End?

The gas industry plans on playing a major role in energy markets for decades to come. Is that realistic?
Julia Pyper January 27, 2020

ABU DHABI — The role of natural gas is one of the stickier points of debate related to the global energy transition, and that debate was on full display here this month.

Quote
Adnan Amin, former director-general of International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and current senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, argued that the role of natural gas is being overstated in most forecasts.

“We have been talking about, for the last few years, gas as the bridge,” Amin said during Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. “There is an inevitability about bridges, which is that sooner or later you get to the end of the bridge."

The combination of artificial intelligence, smart grid technologies and energy storage is undermining the argument that gas is needed to manage the intermittency of renewable energy resources, Amin noted. The geopolitics of natural gas and rising global emissions are also challenging previously held assumptions around what the optimal energy mix should be.

Quote
The cost of wind and solar have decreased dramatically over the past decade, to the point where renewables are now cheaper than new-build natural-gas plants in many parts of the world. According to Wood Mackenzie, solar may be able to out-compete new gas-fired plants virtually everywhere on a levelized cost basis by the year 2023.

Within the next decade, renewables are expected to be cheaper than even existing gas plants, prompting the question of stranded assets.


And it's not just happening in high-income parts of the world. Renewables are already cheaper to build and use than existing natural-gas plants in several of the markets where Enel operates, Enel Green Power CEO Antonio Cammisecra said in a phone interview.

“In many countries, we observe that it is more convenient to build new wind or solar than operate existing thermal assets,” Cammisecra said. “This is really just the start of a big, big phenomenon that is happening in major economies but also in emerging countries where we invest.”



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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3463 on: January 28, 2020, 01:54:01 AM »
This breaks my heart ❤️.... 😉😉

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/exxon-10-low-shows-challenges-232753735.html

Keep in mind that oil majors like XOM and Chevron shifted a chunk of their oil/nat gas mix from oil TO natural gas a few years ago .... just in time for nat gas to crater.

The worst is yet to come.  It all comes down to supply and demand, as it does for any industry.  But the current downturn is from too much supply.  Eventually, demand will be the problem for both oil and nat gas.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3464 on: January 28, 2020, 08:24:25 PM »
The  US Monthly Energy Review from the EIA is here, mostly data to October 2019.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The US economy is still totally dependent on oil & gas, no matter what price they hold in the market place, even though total primary energy consumption is flat.

Consumption of oil is flat, of Natural Gas growing, coal down.

Renewable energy is still a minor player, though growing.

However, looking at electricity generation, wind + solar is looking more significant, and see the switch from coal to gas

« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 09:11:14 PM by gerontocrat »
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3465 on: January 28, 2020, 11:38:53 PM »
Using BTUs to compare electrical sources seems to be deceptive.  For thermal sources (fossil fuels) at least 1/3 of the energy is in waste heat, it just goes right up the smokestack.  Wind and solar don't have that issue.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3466 on: January 28, 2020, 11:59:59 PM »
Here's a chart from January 2020 comparing coal to renewables in the US.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42336



And here is all electricity generation in the US:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42497




Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3467 on: January 29, 2020, 01:42:27 PM »
Natural gas’ Day is coming as well.  Coal was the first casualty, oil will be second, followed by nat gas. 

Oil companies shifted their mix to more nat gas a few years ago ... and that has crushed pricing on nat gas.  Greed is an interest animal to watch.

Eventually, large O&G producers will figure out that they are in trouble, but for many of them it will be too late.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3468 on: January 29, 2020, 02:36:28 PM »
Using BTUs to compare electrical sources seems to be deceptive.  For thermal sources (fossil fuels) at least 1/3 of the energy is in waste heat, it just goes right up the smokestack.  Wind and solar don't have that issue.
What interests me is progress towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and as regards electricity generation the inroads Solar+Wind are making on consumption of coal and gas.

As you say, at least one-third** of the energy used from fossil-fuel production of electricity is non-productive. So 1 unit of electrical energy produced from Solar+Wind reduces fossil fuel energy use by 1.5 units.

That is why I produce graphs on primary energy consumed rather than electricity produced. Why British Thermal Units ? - because most of the EIA data on primary energy use is in BTU, except for coal (in short tons - but the EIA gives a conversion factor to BTU).

The same applies to EVs replacement of energy from refined crude to power ICEVs, though I presume with a higher multiplier.
_______________________________________
** While for total electricity generation the energy wasted is about 1/3rd, surely that is because there is little or no wasted energy from renewables + nuclear + hydro. I believe  energy efficiency of coal electricity generation is at best a bit over 40%, and for gas at best up to 60% . That 1/3 proportion of waste heat is an underestimate?

If you include the energy loss from mining, extraction, processing and transportation (EROI), i.e. the ratio of the amount of usable energy (the exergy) delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of exergy used to obtain that energy resource, that 1/3 proportion of waste heat needs increasing even more.

Conventional gas and oil, EROI about 18:1.
Shale gas, performs at about 6.5:1 to 7.6:1.
Tar sands oil 2.9:1 to 5.1 Some say if processing to refined product is included 1:1
Corn ethanol, 1.3:1 Bio-diesel is shown to be pretty dumb.
COAL about 30:1 (excluding transportation)
I could not find a table of generally accepted EROI standard measures.
__________________________________________________________________
So my back of envelope calculation says that each unit of electrical energy produced from Solar+Wind reduces by at least 2 units of energy consumed by Coal+Gas
« Last Edit: January 29, 2020, 02:56:32 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3469 on: January 29, 2020, 04:49:05 PM »
If I were an unethical CEO of a Wall Street Bank, and wanted to ...

1). Get investment fees (public offerings, loan fees, etc) from oil and gas companies

2). Provide “price support” for large clients that want to sell large positions in O & G companies

I would say exactly what Brian Moynihan is saying.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-america-brian-moynihan-on-climate-change-140826633.html
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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3470 on: January 29, 2020, 04:54:10 PM »
Quote
“We should lend to those companies to help them make progress faster, rather than divest from them,” he said, “which won't help them at all.”

Since the O and G companies are inclined to negative progress divesting is the way to go.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3471 on: January 29, 2020, 10:11:55 PM »
Win a lawsuit against an oil major: billion dollar lawsuit and get house arrest

“I’m like a corporate political prisoner,”

"As he was arguing the case against Chevron in Ecuador back in 2009, the company expressly said its long-term strategy was to demonize him. "

"Kaplan appointed a private law firm to prosecute Donziger, after the Southern District of New York declined to do so — a move that is virtually unprecedented. And, as Donziger’s lawyer has pointed out, the firm Kaplan chose, Seward & Kissel, likely has ties to Chevron."

"Kaplan bypassed the standard random assignment process and handpicked someone he knew well,"

"At Chevron’s request, the legal proceedings over the “Amazon Chernobyl” were moved to Ecuador, where the courts were “impartial and fair,” as the oil company’s attorneys wrote "

"the impoverished Amazonian plaintiffs had won a historic judgment "

"Chevron immediately made clear that it would not be paying the judgment. Instead, Chevron moved its assets out of the country, making it impossible for the Ecuadorians to collect."

"Kaplan, who ruled in 2014 that the Ecuadorian judgment against Chevron was invalid"

"The decision hinged on the testimony of an Ecuadorian judge named Alberto Guerra, who claimed that Donziger had bribed him during the original trial"

"Guerra testified in an international arbitration proceeding, he admitted that he had lied and changed his story multiple times. "

 “They do not want to be held responsible for the pollution of their industry.”

https://theintercept.com/2020/01/29/chevron-ecuador-lawsuit-steven-donziger/

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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3472 on: January 30, 2020, 12:32:06 AM »
If I were an unethical CEO of a Wall Street Bank, and wanted to ...

1). Get investment fees (public offerings, loan fees, etc) from oil and gas companies

2). Provide “price support” for large clients that want to sell large positions in O & G companies

I would say exactly what Brian Moynihan is saying.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-america-brian-moynihan-on-climate-change-140826633.html
Bank of America is also a Tesla Bear.

Makes one wonder how many of "The Masters of the Uinverse" are really, really dumb.
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Wildcatter

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3473 on: January 30, 2020, 05:51:30 AM »
Using BTUs to compare electrical sources seems to be deceptive.  For thermal sources (fossil fuels) at least 1/3 of the energy is in waste heat, it just goes right up the smokestack.  Wind and solar don't have that issue.
What interests me is progress towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and as regards electricity generation the inroads Solar+Wind are making on consumption of coal and gas.

As you say, at least one-third** of the energy used from fossil-fuel production of electricity is non-productive. So 1 unit of electrical energy produced from Solar+Wind reduces fossil fuel energy use by 1.5 units.

That is why I produce graphs on primary energy consumed rather than electricity produced. Why British Thermal Units ? - because most of the EIA data on primary energy use is in BTU, except for coal (in short tons - but the EIA gives a conversion factor to BTU).

The same applies to EVs replacement of energy from refined crude to power ICEVs, though I presume with a higher multiplier.
_______________________________________
** While for total electricity generation the energy wasted is about 1/3rd, surely that is because there is little or no wasted energy from renewables + nuclear + hydro. I believe  energy efficiency of coal electricity generation is at best a bit over 40%, and for gas at best up to 60% . That 1/3 proportion of waste heat is an underestimate?

If you include the energy loss from mining, extraction, processing and transportation (EROI), i.e. the ratio of the amount of usable energy (the exergy) delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of exergy used to obtain that energy resource, that 1/3 proportion of waste heat needs increasing even more.

Conventional gas and oil, EROI about 18:1.
Shale gas, performs at about 6.5:1 to 7.6:1.
Tar sands oil 2.9:1 to 5.1 Some say if processing to refined product is included 1:1
Corn ethanol, 1.3:1 Bio-diesel is shown to be pretty dumb.
COAL about 30:1 (excluding transportation)
I could not find a table of generally accepted EROI standard measures.
__________________________________________________________________
So my back of envelope calculation says that each unit of electrical energy produced from Solar+Wind reduces by at least 2 units of energy consumed by Coal+Gas

"Nearly two-thirds of the energy that the power sector consumes (25 quads in 2018) is lost before it reaches end users."  (This is for the US)
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41093

Most of these losses occur at steam-electric power plants (conventional and nuclear) when heat energy is converted into mechanical energy to turn electric generators. Other losses include the electricity used to operate power plants and the electricity lost in the transmission & distribution of electricity to end users."

ICE is also about 25-30% efficient (I'm not sure about total efficiency when taking exploration & production + refining for gasoline/diesel, but yes its assuredly even worse. Laughably worse, even). Primary energy, yep. That's one of the more fascinating metrics to watch. And when you take into account the sheer discrepancy in energy efficiency to end-user, renewable sourced electricity and electric fuel is an overwhelming logical evolution of the energy system. Especially co-located, like rooftop, or community solar, etc.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3474 on: January 30, 2020, 01:19:37 PM »
A little more than $4 and it’s “dinner time”.  Exxon and Chevron report earnings Friday.

Oil and gas downfall has a long ways to go.  There is going to be a lot value destroyed in the O & G sector over the next decade.

The guy I have the dinner bet with is an investment advisor with one of the big banks.  No, I don’t use his advice.  He’s the husband of my girlfriend’s best friend.  But it’s ALWAYS interesting to “hear the other side” of ANY argument .... otherwise you get tunnel vision. It’s also why I make a point of watching a bit of FOX News each week (you shouldn’t criticize unless you actually watch and see how dishonest they are).

The last time I was with this guy, I was at an Atlanta baseball game and sitting next to him.  I intentionally pulled up Wipneus graph of global sea ice, knowing that he would see the graph and ask what I was doing.  It was at a record low at the time I believe.  His comment was something to the effect that “he was beginning to think we humans are having an effect on climate” .... but STILL tried to give some other denialist points.

The next time I see him may be him cooking us dinner (it’s not a done deal YET, and XOM could still rally before getting to $59.99) .... but it will be interesting to see if HE connects the dots between O&G stocks AND an increasingly obvious risk from global warming.



« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 06:52:20 PM by Buddy »
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3475 on: January 30, 2020, 07:03:41 PM »
IF .... hopefully WHEN .... I win the bet with my girlfriend’s friend’s husband .... the next bet I may suggest to him is “XOM $20 BEFORE $90 (depending on how supply and demand issues look).

Keep in mind the last bet I made with him, XOM was at $80 when I made the “$60 before $90” bet.

If there is ENOUGH supply destruction in the coming months ... we could get a long rally.  The thing that is different about the oil markets NOW as opposed to 10 years ago, is that as long as there is enough fracking going on, the rebound on the SUPPLY SIDE is much quicker than it used to be, providing a lower “ceiling” for the price of oil.

First things first.  XOM needs to get below $60 ... and it’s not there yet. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3476 on: January 30, 2020, 07:22:19 PM »
An interesting read for those of you interested in oil and gas:

https://finance.yahoo.com/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3477 on: January 30, 2020, 08:21:07 PM »
US Natural Gas prices looking sick.

Fear (coronavirus) + world glut arriving in 2020.
Small operators awash with debt.
Exxon & Shell waiting for the fire sale.

Tears by bedtime.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3478 on: January 30, 2020, 09:18:43 PM »
If I were an unethical CEO of a Wall Street Bank, and wanted to ...

1). Get investment fees (public offerings, loan fees, etc) from oil and gas companies

2). Provide “price support” for large clients that want to sell large positions in O & G companies

I would say exactly what Brian Moynihan is saying.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-america-brian-moynihan-on-climate-change-140826633.html
Bank of America is also a Tesla Bear.

Makes one wonder how many of "The Masters of the Uinverse" are really, really dumb.

Most of them.  Read up on the housing market crash in 2007 - 2008.  It's eye-opening how many people who are responsible for billions of dollars are blind to what's going on in the economy.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3479 on: January 30, 2020, 09:21:35 PM »
US Natural Gas prices looking sick.

Fear (coronavirus) + world glut arriving in 2020.
Small operators awash with debt.
Exxon & Shell waiting for the fire sale.

Tears by bedtime.

Most US frackers can't be profitable with prices under $2.50.  They're under $2.00 now.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3480 on: January 30, 2020, 09:31:42 PM »
There are some on Wall Street that KNOW what is going on (many KNEW what was going on in the housing mkt .... they just didn’t care, and most profited as they blew up the balloon, and some of them profited as THEY helped pop the balloon).

O & G industry is going to go through what may be the biggest industrial wipeout in history.  Some coastal real estate is also headed for a BIG FALL once insurers back out .... but that will be locally driven ..... and will happen much slower.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3481 on: January 30, 2020, 09:38:32 PM »
The O & G industry reminds me a lot of the CURRENT Republican Party (I’m an Independent BTW).

The O & G industry has lied for 40 years about global warming.  Ten years longer than FOX News has lied about GW.  And the industry will do anything to keep on pumping, the world be damned.

The Republican Party is doing the SAME THING.  They KNOW the demographics are growing worse for them.

And it’s interesting that those two ... O&G Industry AND the Republican Party are tied at the hip.  The R’s have lied, gerrymandered, and spent like drunken sailors to stay on top.  BOTH will continue to do so until they are BOTH dethroned.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3482 on: January 30, 2020, 09:43:34 PM »
The Canadian Tar Sands are having trouble economically with depressed demand and competition from frackers.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/15-Billion-Oil-Sands-Project-Might-Not-Go-Ahead-Even-If-Trudeau-Approves-It.html

Quote
$15 Billion Oil Sands Project Might Not Go Ahead Even If Trudeau Approves It
By Irina Slav - Jan 30, 2020

Teck Resources is uncertain it will go ahead with a planned oil sands project that is awaiting the approval of the federal Canadian government, the Canadian Press reports, citing Teck’s chief executive.

Quote
According to Teck Resources’ CEO Don Lindsay, however, the project may not go through even if the government grants it approval. The problem, he said during an investor conference in Alberta, was oil prices, among other things. Frontier’s profitability was based on higher oil prices, much higher than they are now. When it was first floated, the plan saw profitability at a West Texas Intermediate price of $75 per barrel. WTI is currently trading at a little over $50 a barrel and hasn’t touched $70 for years.

Quote
Yet if the government does approve the project and Teck Resources decides not to go ahead with it, this could be an even harder blow to the industry, a sign that the investment climate and the oil price environment has worsened so much that it is making projects that were deemed profitable just three years ago, unprofitable.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3483 on: January 31, 2020, 02:30:34 PM »
From Exxon’s earning statement.  Note that oil prices are DOWN 14% since the Iranian missile attack:



“Removing the asset sale, per-share profit was 41 cents, shy of the 44 cents analysts were looking for, according to a survey by Zacks Investment Research.

Revenue reached $67.17 billion.

Crude prices are down 14% since an Iranian missile attack on two military bases in Iraq housing American troops earlier this month. Over the past year, crude prices are off 2.4%.”
« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 10:08:39 PM by Buddy »
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3484 on: January 31, 2020, 10:07:43 PM »
The oil and gas rig count in the US is down 265 from a year ago and down 4 from last week.  It's now at 790.  Given how quickly fracked wells decline, we'll see production stall out and decline soon if that trend doesn't change.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Drops-As-Oil-Price-Slide-Accelerates.html

Quote
U.S. Rig Count Drops As Oil Price Slide Accelerates
By Julianne Geiger - Jan 31, 2020

After another week of faltering oil prices as the coronavirus outbreak continues to spook the market, Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US decreased this week, to 790—a decrease of 4 rigs. The total oil and gas rig count is now 265 down from this time last year.

Quote
The WTI benchmark at 12:28pm was $51.65 (-0.94%) per barrel—nearly $3 per barrel below last week levels as travel restrictions within, to, and from China threatens to dent oil demand. The Brent benchmark was trading at $56.71(-1.08%)—more than $3 per barrel below last week’s levels.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3485 on: January 31, 2020, 10:10:20 PM »
Good article on XOM .... with what is probably a headline that is the understatement of the century:

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4320532-exxon-mobil-10-year-low-is-not-investment-signal
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3486 on: February 01, 2020, 12:27:43 AM »
Oil falls further into the abyss:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Market-Falls-Deeper-Into-Abyss.amp.html

The interesting question (not addressed in the topics covered) is this:  What happens in (1) Saudi Arabia, and (2) Russia .... in the coming decade?


I think both are in much deeper water than they think.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2020, 01:43:18 AM by Buddy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3487 on: February 01, 2020, 01:11:43 AM »
OPEC, Russia could discuss emergency cuts as coronavirus crushes oil
Quote
OPEC and its allies could meet soon to discuss deepening their production cuts, in an effort to stem the sharp decline in oil prices due to a demand scare from the coronavirus outbreak.

West Texas Intermediate was at $51.59 per barrel Friday, after trading as high as $65.65 in early January.

Oil has plunged 21.4% from the early January high when Iran launched rockets at U.S. military bases in Iraq. Oil markets had expected an improving global economy this year, after the U.S. and China reached a first phase trade deal, but the coronavirus has now threatened Chinese and global growth.

Oil's drop has been stunning as it follows a large reduction in market supply after a Libyan pipeline was shutdown, forcing 800,000 a day off the market. At the same time, OPEC and Russia have been maintaining their agreement to withhold 1.8 million barrels a day.

"It has completely changed the dynamic. It takes a hatchet to the demand growth outlook for this year," said Kilduff. "There was a hope for the economy, but now it's going out the window. China is the flip of Saudi Arabia. That's the swing demand center, and now the swing demand center is shutting down."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/opec-russia-could-discuss-emergency-cuts-as-coronavirus-crushes-oil.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3488 on: February 01, 2020, 02:08:50 AM »
Younger investors want nothing to do with them.  Fossil fuel companies are the new tobacco.  We’re starting to see divestments all over the world.  Pension funds say, “We’re not going to own them anymore.”
Quote
CNBC (@CNBC) 1/31/20, 9:09 AM
“I’m done with fossil fuels. They’re done,” @MadMoneyOnCNBC's @jimcramer says after oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron reported Q4 earnings this morning. “We’re in the death knell phase.”
https://twitter.com/cnbc/status/1223246855015993345
3-min CNBC video at the link.
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zufall

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3489 on: February 01, 2020, 08:45:18 AM »
"EU Commission wants to support imports from fracking funding again. US liquefied gas imports are increasing rapidly."

(Article is in German, excerpts translated using Google Translate)

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Bruessel-will-weiter-Oel-und-Gaskonzerne-subventionieren-4651252.html

Quote
In mid-February, MEPs in the EU Parliament should approve a special support program. In the past few years, the Commission has used the "projects of common interest" to transfer billions of tax revenues to oil and gas companies. A large part of the money is intended to boost the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from overseas.

(...)Although the EU countries have now signed all kinds of commitments to commit themselves to supporting only technologies that are climate neutral, they subsidize one of the most dangerous emitters of climate-active gases with the infrastructure for cracked and liquefied natural gas.

Even the New York Times, which has so far been seen as an uncritical companion of the fracking boom, recently published an extensive report on the massive gas slippage in the American gas industry. In it, the authors describe the rising methane values ​​in the atmosphere since 2007. Fracking natural gas production, which accelerated along with the rise in atmospheric methane levels, is the prime suspect, the New York Times later realized.

The EU Commission seems to be unaware of such questions. It also sponsors infrastructures across the EU and all the way to Ukraine, which should make it possible to feed in natural gas from overseas. The current funding list contains LNG projects in Poland, Greece and Croatia. Numerous other projects include infrastructures for LNG terminals that have been subsidized in the past.

For example, a project company "LNG Croatia" is planning to anchor a huge floating LNG terminal in front of the Croatian holiday paradise Krk. The grants that have already been approved show how far the EU commissioners are willing to take any risks off investors. For the terminal alone, the EU taxpayer had already paid at least a third of the investment sum from the last PCI list with 100 million euros.

In addition, the Croatian government guarantees the operator a "security of supply fee" in the event that the income from the user fees does not cover the operating costs. Now, with the fourth PCI list, the EU Commission also wants to reduce the costs of a pipeline connection to Hungary.

Anyone who thinks that there was a breakthrough for critical climate awareness in the past year 2019 will find themselves in a wrong world in Brussels. The Commission's energy commissioners are unabashedly following the lobbyists of the oil and gas industry. From their perspective, they can definitely be successful.

Bloomberg analysts calculated that U.S. companies sold most of their liquefied natural gas to the EU last year. A persecution of LNG tankers shows that 28.8 million cubic meters of LNG are said to have reached the EU ports.

In the same article, the authors describe the massive emissions of methane along the entire production chain. At the drilling sites, above the fracked areas, during truck transport, in the liquefaction process, during loading: There is enormous loss of gas everywhere, which is far more harmful to the climate than the notorious CO2. The group of eight LNG terminals in Texas-Louisiana potentially emits more climate-active gases than 15 coal-fired power plants.

(...) Meanwhile, climate activists are mobilizing across Europe to ensure that MPs reject the fourth PCI list in mid-February. There are numerous calls online to write to the respective MEPs and draw attention to the problem. Andy Gheorghiu believes that the mobilization could be successful.

Already during the last vote on the 3rd PCI list, the commission was surprised by the violent protests by climate activists. "Last time we voted, we convinced almost a quarter of MPs to vote against the third PCI list."

According to the activists, many members of the plenary support climate protection much more than the members of the energy committee. There are still many MPs who oppose further EU support for fossil gas. That is why groups like Food & Water Europe are calling for Europe-wide campaign days against continued EU support for new fossil gas infrastructures in the next two weeks: "We need as many people as possible - individuals, grassroots groups and non-governmental organizations - to work with their MPs Get in touch and ask them to reject the PCI list! "

Andy Gheorghiu also sees that many MPs face a dilemma. The fact that useful projects are included in the list, such as smart grid solutions for power grids, means that some MPs tend to agree across the board. The Commission has also recently stressed that this is the last fossil PCI list. Gheorghiu believes that the Commission's tactic increases the risk that long-term fossil fuel projects will now be approved, which fundamentally torpedo the overdue energy transition.

    We see that the Commission is under extreme pressure. They promise that it will be different in the future. But the terms for the infrastructures that are now to be decided are 30 to 50 years. That means the future is decided now.
    Andy Gheorghiu

blumenkraft

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3490 on: February 01, 2020, 10:39:25 AM »
Only so that you know what's happening here.

The EU is taking money from everyone via taxes to redistribute it to fossil fuel companies and their stakeholders. This is a redistribution from the poor to the richest of the rich! Corporate socialism so to say.

Now this whole 'taxation is theft' argument doesn't sound so stupid anymore, right? But not because there is any merits in the libertarian ideology, but because we allow corruption.

“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3491 on: February 02, 2020, 07:48:39 PM »
The future for oil and gas certainly has trouble in its path.

Here is a quote from someone in 2013 regarding the future of coal:

“It ain't dead and it ain't dying.  EIA projects world coal output to rise by 40% over its most recent forecast period (2011-2035), but only by 11% over the next 10 years.”

Needless to say .... relying on the EIA may not have been the best decision. 🙈

Coal used for power generation is indeed dead.  Oil and nat gas ARE going to plateau .... before they decrease in use.  They are “next in line” to get crushed.


FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3492 on: February 03, 2020, 03:38:24 PM »
Saudi Aramco has a market cap of about $2 TRILLION dollars.  Exxon Mobil is about $260 billion, and Chevron is about $200 billion.  There is a LOT of “future pain” in the coming 5 yrs or more.

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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3493 on: February 03, 2020, 06:19:27 PM »
Now that everyone and their cat are bearish on oil and gas (except for “the chosen one” who doesn’t know that Kansas City is in Missouri, not Kansas) .... Goldman’s comes out and slaps a “sell” on Exxon Mobil. 🙈🙈

Goldman’s has the ethics of FOX News:  NONE.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/27a7360b-0780-307b-918d-f07cceab7354/exxon-extends-slump-as.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3494 on: February 03, 2020, 07:26:06 PM »
Oil falls to a more than 1-year low below $50 on coronavirus fears
Quote
Oil fell to its lowest level in more than a year on Monday as the coronavirus outbreak and its potential impact on demand continue to hammer crude prices.
At the session low U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $49.92, while international benchmark Brent traded as low as $54.67.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/oil-falls-to-a-more-than-1-year-low-below-50-on-fears-the-coronavirus-will-slow-global-growth.html
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Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3495 on: February 03, 2020, 07:28:36 PM »
Demand in China is already down by 3 million barrels a day. And demand in the rest of Asia also starts to decline. https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/china-oil-demand-plunges-due-viral-outbreak-report-200203064745954.html

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3496 on: February 03, 2020, 08:55:48 PM »
Lower costing fossil fuels make renewable solutions less appealing. Those bent on making a profit from the climate crisis will be hurt as badly as those that profit from fossil fuel extraction and sales. In some instances the ff producers have much deeper pockets and will weather the Coronavirus storm unscathed. Not the small fracking companies that may already be near the tipping point, but the large multinationals.


Russia has been budgeting for crude at $40 since 2014/15 and sells in the Brent market. Saudi Arabia needs a much higher price to afford her military adventures and to keep her populace in line. I'm not sure how long that monarchy can survive with lowered prices.


If the Kingdom should falter I'd expect prices to peek, at least until someone brings the fields back into full production. Iraq is still sputtering along and America seems determined to shut down Iranian production ASAP.


I don't see any winners here.
Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3497 on: February 03, 2020, 09:02:38 PM »
The best thing for an energy transition would be to set a given price for oil and gas, and then collect the difference between the "free market" price and that price as a fee to be partially dividended out to the bottom 90% on a per capita basis (the top 10% can afford it given all their previous tax cuts) and partially spent on new green infrastructure. Then state that the prices will rise a given percent each year.

If the dividend is pre-paid on a quarterly basis, there should be little or no resistance and all the anti-propaganda will be useless as the bottom 90% have more money in their pocket due to that government dividend check.

That way firms and individuals can carry out long-term planning and global market volatility will have no impact upon those long term plans.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3498 on: February 03, 2020, 09:15:27 PM »
^^
That will fly in B.C., but could be grounded in D.C. ::)
Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3499 on: February 03, 2020, 09:20:54 PM »
We need two terms for Bernie, followed by two terms for Ocassio-Cortez. It will take that long to flush out all the neoliberal and fossil fuel crap from the political process. They should both make sure that they wear bullet proof vests and have their food pre-vetted.