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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3950 on: October 25, 2020, 05:47:48 PM »
Explosion Onboard Russian Oil Tanker, Vessel Sinking
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/explosion-onboard-a-russian-oil-tanker-vessel-sinking/

A Russian oil tanker has been rocked by an explosion in the Sea of Azov and is now sinking, according to Russian media.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sebh1981/status/1320063421270937600

The Russian Government say that said the explosion on the General Azi Aslanov took place as the tanker was en route from the port of Kavkaz to the port of Rostov-on-Don.



The Sea of Azov is a sea in Eastern Europe connected to the Black Sea by the narrow Strait of Kerch, and is sometimes regarded as a northern extension of the Black Sea. The sea is bounded in the northwest by Ukraine, in the southeast by Russia.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Azov

Update: Maritime officials said the tanker wasn't loaded explosion may have been triggered by flammable vapors left behind from the vessel's previous cargo. (Never mind)

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« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 05:54:09 PM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3951 on: October 28, 2020, 05:55:39 PM »
Oct 27
Javier Blas: "BP shares close at fresh 26-year low in London | #OOTT $BP”

"And Royal Dutch Shell, which reports 3Q earnings on Thursday, closed today in London at a near 25-year low | #OOTT $RDSB"

https://mobile.twitter.com/javierblas/status/1321141534964764677
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3952 on: October 29, 2020, 06:55:27 PM »
The headline is about Exxon not rasing its dividend.
Another point of view is that Exxon has not cut it, given that "the company had relied on debt to fund its capital projects and pay the dividend because it wasn’t generating enough cash from operations to pay for both" and has told " investors it doesn’t intend to take on new debt in the near term".

methinks we may be looking at a company whose corporate culture is so ingrained it cannot change its path  - to doom?

Exxon Decides Not to Raise Its Dividend. Is a Cut in the Cards?
Exxon Mobil declined to raise its dividend this year, the first time it’s failed to do so since 1982. The move comes as no surprise to most investors. The big question now isn’t whether Exxon will raise its dividend, it’s whether the company will cut it. The stock has fallen 54% this year, but was up 1.6%, at $32.07, Thursday morning.

Exxon (ticker: XOM) announced late on Wednesday that it will keep its dividend at 87 cents per quarter. Exxon’s dividend yield is now 11%, a stunningly high payout for a company long considered a staple of the U.S. economy. It implies that investors expect the company to have to cut it. (When yields rise above 10%, it implies investors are nervous about the dividend.)

If the company does make any decision about cutting the dividend, it may not be until next year. The next board meeting to consider it is scheduled for January. Exxon will report earnings on Friday, and much of the talk among the investment community will likely be about whether the company can hold on to its dividend.

Exxon has boxed itself in somewhat by telling investors it doesn’t intend to take on new debt in the near term. The company had relied on debt to fund its capital projects and pay the dividend because it wasn’t generating enough cash from operations to pay for both. Without access to the debt markets, Exxon has been cutting expenses, including suspending employee 401(k) matches.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3953 on: October 29, 2020, 08:38:01 PM »
Exxon to cut 14,000 jobs as pandemic hits oil demand
Quote
Exxon Mobil Corp said on Thursday it could cut its global workforce by about 15%, including deep white-collar staff reductions in the United States, as the COVID-19 pandemic batters energy demand and prices.

Exxon and other oil producers have been slashing costs due to a collapse in oil demand and ill-timed bets on new projects. The top U.S. oil company earlier outlined more than $10 billion in budget cuts this year.
...
Exxon, which has struggled in recent years to regain footing after misplaced bets on shale gas and Russia exploration, lost nearly $1.7 billion in the first six months of the year. It is expected to report a record-setting third straight quarterly loss on Friday, and its third-quarter loss could reach $1.19 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES.

Exxon said the 1,900 U.S. job cuts will come mainly from its Houston-area campus, the headquarters for its U.S. oil and gas businesses.

Earlier this month, Exxon said it would cut 1,600 jobs in Europe. It has announced cuts in Australia. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/exxonmobil-layoffs/update-4-exxon-to-cut-14000-jobs-as-pandemic-hits-oil-demand-idUSL4N2HK4VI
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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3954 on: October 30, 2020, 10:38:49 AM »
Britain’s Profiteering Spymasters Ignored the Country’s Biggest Threats

While spinning the revolving doors, they have endangered the public by neglecting  bigger security threats, like coronavirus and climate change, write Matt Kennard and Mark Curtis.

Almost all of Britain’s former spy chiefs are personally profiting from working for cyber security and energy companies after retiring from the U.K.’s major intelligence agencies.

In May, Declassified UK revealed that since 2000, nine out of 10 former chiefs of MI6, MI5 and GCHQ have taken jobs in the cyber security industry, a sector they promoted while in office as key to defending the U.K. from the “Russian threat.”

The British government was told for over a decade that the “gravest risk” to the country is an influenza pandemic, which its National Security Strategy identifies as a “tier one priority risk.” Yet the security services largely ignored health threats, despite claiming they are guided by the U.K.’s security strategy.

...

The last three heads of MI6 all joined oil or gas-producing companies, which are among the world’s largest contributors to climate change, after they left the service. Declassified can reveal that former MI6 chief, Sir Richard Dearlove, has earned more than £2-million from his role on the board of American oil and gas company, Kosmos Energy, which was until 2018 registered in the tax haven of Bermuda.

Another former MI6 chief, Sir John Sawers, has earned £699,000 since 2015 as a board member of oil giant BP, in addition to possessing shares in the company worth £91,300.

Climate change has also been largely ignored by the security agencies, evidence suggests, despite the U.K. government last year recognizing it as a “security risk,” adding, “There is no doubt that climate-related security challenges are real. They are here. They are now.”

...

It appears that no intelligence chief has ever made money working on the security threats posed by climate change or health pandemics. None also appears to have ever mentioned these threats while in office or after. Public warnings from intelligence chiefs which highlight the security threat from climate change would be likely to adversely impact the profitability of fossil fuel companies.

https://consortiumnews.com/2020/10/29/britains-profiteering-spymasters-ignored-the-countrys-biggest-threats/

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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3955 on: October 30, 2020, 05:43:43 PM »
Investment in upstream oil and gas infrastructure (new wells, pipelines, refineries, LNG facilities, etc...) is down an estimated 35% this year.  That will lead to reduced production in the future.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Investments-Are-Drying-Up-As-Crude-Demand-Falters.html

Quote
Oil Investments Are Drying Up As Crude Demand Falters
By Irina Slav - Oct 29, 2020

Thirty-five percent: this is the size of the spending cuts oil and gas companies are likely to have made this year in response to the effects that the coronavirus pandemic is having on demand, according to the International Energy Agency. And this is just the spending slump in upstream oil and gas. This is just part of a wider trend of investment cuts in the energy industry, according to the IEA, which earlier this month published an update of its World Energy Investment report, first released in late spring. At the time, some thought we were seeing the worst of the pandemic. They were, apparently, wrong.

Quote
The future remains marred in uncertainty that extends to the possibility of a rebound in oil investments. According to some, such as BP, we are already past peak oil demand, so that would mean less investment in oil production growth globally. Others, such as OPEC producers, hope things will sooner or later return to normal, and the world’s appetite for more oil will continue to grow for at least a few more years before plateauing. And yet even OPEC is preparing for a worst-case scenario.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3956 on: October 31, 2020, 03:28:00 PM »
reality comes calling - even to Exxon-Mobil.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/exxonmobile-warns-of-30bn-writedown-of-shale-assets-as-energy-prices-fall
ExxonMobil warns of $30bn writedown of shale assets amid energy price slump

Quote
ExxonMobil has warned it may write down the value of its US shale assets by up to $30bn (£23.2bn) following a steep drop in global energy prices that has led to the oil giant’s third consecutive quarterly loss.

The US oil and gas producer told investors it plans to reassess its North America gas business over the coming months, which could lead to impairment charges as high as $25bn to $30bn if it changes its long-term strategy.

The rethink will include a string of shale gas assets acquired 10 years ago through an ill-fated acquisition of XTO Energy, which was worth about $30bn at the time, but whose book value is in doubt following a steep collapse in gas market prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Exxon said its shale gas operations were among the assets “at risk for significant impairment”.

The slump in energy prices led Exxon to a net loss of $680m for the third quarter on Friday, compared with a $3.2bn profit in the same months of 2019.

The result was better than expected by equity analysts but Exxon still trails behind rival oil firms Chevron, BP and Shell which all managed a modest return to profit in the latest quarter.

The record quarterly loss, and what could prove to be the industry’s biggest writedown in more than a decade, will pile pressure on Exxon’s chief executive, Darren Woods, who had promised to protect the company’s $15bn-a-year dividend policy despite the historic industry-wide impact of the pandemic.

Woods told investors this week that he plans to make job cuts affecting up to 14,000 people employed across its global business, and will cut the company’s 2021 spending budget by almost 30% to between $16bn and $19bn to help shore up its balance sheet.

Woods has already cut spending for 2020 by a third, and promised to reduce its operating costs by 15%, after abandoning his plans for an aggressive, debt-fuelled overhaul of the company’s ageing portfolio set for this year.

Exxon’s decision to reassess the value of the gas assets it bought from XTO Energy in 2010 was “looming large for some time”, according to RBC Capital analyst Biraj Borkhataria, and may “draw a line in the sand on the poor timing” of the first US shale mega-deal.

Meanwhile, the second-largest US oil producer, Chevron, reported a quarterly loss of $207m, down sharply from a profit of $2.6bn in the same period last year, despite cuts to capital spending of 48% while lowering its operating expenses by 12%.

Exxon was once the most-valued company listed on the New York Stock Exchange but its value has plummeted in recent years, accelerated by the coronavirus crisis. The company’s market value has fallen to $136bn, and was usurped by US renewable energy firm NextEra Energy, valued at $144bn.

During the pandemic Exxon has also been topped by Netflix, which is now worth $213bn, and remains only slightly ahead of the video-conferencing firm Zoom, which is worth $133bn.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3957 on: November 02, 2020, 08:55:47 PM »
Quote
During the pandemic Exxon has also been topped by Netflix, which is now worth $213bn, and remains only slightly ahead of the video-conferencing firm Zoom, which is worth $133bn.

And Tesla, which is worth $377bn. :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3958 on: November 02, 2020, 09:05:32 PM »
Quote
During the pandemic Exxon has also been topped by Netflix, which is now worth $213bn, and remains only slightly ahead of the video-conferencing firm Zoom, which is worth $133bn.

And Tesla, which is worth $377bn. :)
Tesla worth priced at 377bn.

and anyway - hold the front page !!!!

- p/e ratio collapsed to below 800 !!! market cap only 376 billion iron men !!!

Shock!! horror !! sell sell sell !!!!!!!
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3959 on: November 05, 2020, 03:50:07 PM »
In the Hunt for Industrial Brine, a Surfeit of Sinkholes

Delicate work aims to fill a void in New Mexico before it collapses, but it’s a more expensive problem than expected.

...

When I&W, which operated the well for 30 years, was pressed to pay for fixing it, the company filed for bankruptcy. Liquidated assets produced $3 million, a small slice of a bill now estimated at above $54 million and growing. But the idea of fixing an invisible, indeterminate, potential disaster hit amid the very real pressures of the 2008 economic downturn, when lawmakers scrambling to close a budget gap raided the state’s reclamation fund. It took a decade for them to find money to tackle the task.

...

Activity has buzzed since last September. Initially, the goal was to have finished this past summer, but opening up the well to work on it offered a chance to collect new data on its dimensions. The southern portion was more stable than expected and filled quickly. That secured the area near the mobile home park and irrigation canal. But the northern end, some of which lies under Highway 285, proved larger than expected.

The cost of additional cement mixture would break the state’s budget, Veni says. “So what they started to do was to inject sand.”

Then, the cavity swallowed the quantity of sand expected to fill it to 70 percent, but remained only 20 percent filled. Sonar suggests two-thirds of the sand drifted into rubble from a previous internal collapse, instead of filling the void. “It’s going to take a hell of a lot of sand to do this,” says Veni — more than the state’s current budget can cover.

...

During injection, the effort costs more than $3 million a month, Griswold said during a September 2019 meeting, and, just as in 2009, the state is dealing with tight finances. Taxes and royalties from the oil and gas industry provide up to 40 percent of New Mexico’s general fund revenue, and lawmakers have had to cut spending after oil prices hit unprecedented lows this spring.

https://undark.org/2020/10/28/new-mexico-prevent-massive-sinkhole/

See the story for all the cool stuff about the sinkholes.

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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3960 on: November 06, 2020, 05:50:20 PM »
As the Big Oil companies slowly transition into energy companies and renewable energy, they have to deal with the stranded assets on their books.  Shell is finding it difficult to find buyers for their refineries.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shell-To-Shut-Down-Louisiana-Refinery.html

Quote
Shell To Shut Down Louisiana Refinery
By Irina Slav - Nov 06, 2020

Royal Dutch Shell will shut down its Convent refinery in Louisiana after failing to find a buyer for the facility, Bloomberg reports, citing a statement by the company.

The move, due to be completed before the end of the month, is in line with Shell’s plans to reduce the number of refineries it operates from 14 to 6 over the next four years. The plans, in turn, are part of its strategy to shift away from its core business and into alternative energy.

Quote
The Convent refinery has a capacity of 211,100 barrels of oil daily, and it appears that no other company with downstream operations is interested in additional refining capacity. On the contrary, as Bloomberg points out, refiners are closing facilities in response to the demand slump. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum both have refinery closure plans as well as plans to convert other refining facilities to biodiesel production sites.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3961 on: November 19, 2020, 08:00:39 PM »
Noorwegen geeft concessiegebieden voor oliewinning in Arctisch gebied vrij

Noorwegen zal 136 nieuwe concessiegebieden voor oliewinning aanbieden, zo hebben het ministerie van Petroleum en Energie en het Noorse Petroleum Directoraat donderdag bekendgemaakt. Het gros van de concessiegebieden, 125 in totaal, ligt in de Barentszzee.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6091528/noorwegen-geeft-concessiegebieden-voor-oliewinning-in-arctisch-gebied-vrij.html

Norway will open 136 oil concessions of which 125 are in the Barentz.

There is also a pending court case relating to 2016 concessions due soon. Not sure if that is another test of a governments internal coherence in policy. If you profess to be green these things just should not be done.

See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1364.msg293755.html#new for a (maybe) similar case in France.

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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3962 on: November 23, 2020, 04:54:54 PM »
Major Regulator Makes 11th-hour Move to Sink Banks' Oil Limits
https://www.axios.com/banks-oil-limits-regulator-4fdb88a1-5a48-4cbc-a68e-8cfccddec000.html

A major regulator is racing to thwart big banks' refusal to lend and service certain industries and projects — including Arctic oil drilling and new coal mining.

Why it matters: America's biggest banks are increasingly scaling back ties with fossil fuel, prison and gun-manufacturing businesses amid public pressure and changing investment preferences.

Driving the news: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — one of three key banking regulators — floated draft rules Friday that say banks can't turn away entire industries. Rather, they have to prove that they decided not to lend because applicants didn’t meet "quantitative, impartial risk-based standards."

"Politically controversial but lawful businesses" deserve "fair access to financial services under the law," the proposal says.

... "Contrary to the claims of oil-backed politicians, banks don't want to finance more drilling in the Arctic not because of some vast liberal conspiracy, but because it's bad business," Sierra Club's Ben Cushing says.

The big picture: It's the latest effort under the Trump administration to whittle away at investments that factor in industries' societal impact.

Earlier this month, the Labor Department finalized a rule that put a high burden on retirement funds that want to include investments that strip out fossil fuel companies and other non-sustainable businesses.

... The OCC is taking public comments until Jan. 4, and then would have a fast turnaround to complete the rule before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

The Biden administration — by installing its preferred OCC head — could unwind a completed rule, but that's complicated and slow compared to abandoning an incomplete proposal.


... so, he likes oil ... à votre santé!
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3963 on: November 23, 2020, 09:35:08 PM »
US oil refinery throughput is tanking and sellers cant find buyers for the excess refineries.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/11/23/oil-refinery-industry-stranded-assets-pandemic

Quote
Oil Companies Can’t Find Any Buyers For Refineries Struggling Amid Pandemic Crisis
By Justin Mikulka • Monday, November 23, 2020

Major players in the U.S. petroleum refining industry — which is experiencing a historic downturn due to the coronavirus pandemic — are attempting to sell refineries, with little luck. Unable to find any buyers, several refineries are becoming stranded assets as they are permanently shut down.

Quote
In the second week of November 2019, U.S. refinery inputs totaled 16.0 million barrels per day (mbpd). In the same week in 2020, the total was 13.6 mbpd — a 15 percent decrease.



Quote
As The Times' article on Delta explains, jet fuel has historically been known as “Steady Eddie” because it was a “predictable profit maker.” Then the pandemic hit.

The latest weekly report from the Energy Information Administration notes that while U.S. gasoline consumption is down 10 percent compared to the same four week period from a year ago, jet fuel consumption is down 40 percent.



Quote
Airlines would be devastated if business travel doesn’t return to prior levels. According to a study by Trondent (self-described as a “leader in global travel management solutions”), business travelers account for 75 percent of airline profits, while only representing 12 percent of an airline’s total passengers. If airlines can’t make a profit, they will cut more flights and consume less jet fuel.

COVID-19's long-term impact on air travel, and its similar impact on U.S. business travel, poses a major financial risk to the U.S. refining industry, which was already facing decline in demand for its products from another change in transportation — the electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet. As the electric vehicle market surges, major car companies are promising big investments in electric vehicle production.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3964 on: November 24, 2020, 12:07:29 AM »
Yemen's Houthi Rebels Say They Struck Saudi Oil Facility With New Type Of Cruise Missile
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37783/yemens-houthi-rebels-say-they-struck-saudi-oil-facility-with-new-type-of-cruise-missile

The Houthi strike on Jeddah on the Red Sea came amid reports of a secret meeting between Saudi and Israeli officials elsewhere in the country.

Satellite imagery shows what looks to be damage to an oil tank at a facility belonging to the Saudi Aramco oil company in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah on the Red Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen had earlier claimed to have fired a ground-launched Quds-2 cruise missile, a weapon the group claims it put into service just recently, at that site overnight. The strike certainly seems to have been meant to send a signal and came amid reports that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had secretly met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad in the Red Sea coastal resort town of Neom, much further to the north.

The strike, which occurred on the night of November 22nd, 2020, underscores the Houthis' ever-increasing ability to hit targets deeper inside Saudi Arabia with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as so-called "suicide drones." Jeddah is more than 390 miles from the Yemeni border, at closest, and the Yemeni militants claimed the Quds-2 flew just over 400 miles to reach its target.

Cruise missiles were also a notable feature in the unprecedented strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure in the northeastern portion of the country in September 2019, which the Houthis claimed responsibility for, but which the United States has accused Iran of carrying out directly. ... Most notably oil tanks were also targeted with significant precision in those previous strikes, something that appears to have now happened again.

It's also interesting to note that Jeddah is roughly the same distance away from Yemen as the Aramco sites in Abqaiq and Khurais, the facilities struck in September of last year, are from southern Iraq and northwestern Iran.

The September 2019 strikes were especially significant development as they showed how even a non-state actor could hold sensitive and otherwise important facilities and infrastructure at risk using lower-tier cruise missiles, as well as suicide drones. The Houthis, in particular, are among the most capable groups in this regard.

... The strike also notably came as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, better known simply as MBS, in Neom, something that was publicized and that the Yemeni rebels would have been aware of.

Israeli media outlets have reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Mossad chief, Yossi Cohen, also secretly flew to Neom to meet with MBS, either together with Pompeo and his entourage, or on the sidelines of that meeting.

-------------------------------------------

... which means they'll need a false flag operation to get the ball rolling ...

-------------------------------------------

Oil Tanker In Red Sea Struck In Mine Attack With Similarities To Past Iranian Strikes
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37834/oil-tanker-in-red-sea-struck-in-mine-attack-with-similarities-to-past-iranian-strikes

A Maltese-flagged oil tanker was the victim of an attack in the Red Sea off the coast of Saudi Arabia earlier today. The damage was attributed to a naval mine, but breached the ship's outer hull above the waterline, which might point to a limpet mine. Limpet mines were employed in a series of attacks on tanker ships that Iran or its regional proxies carried out in the Gulf of Oman last year. So far, no group has claimed responsibility, but Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have targeted commercial ships in the Red Sea in the past.

The MT Agrari, which is flagged in Malta, but operated by a Greek shipping company, TMS Tankers, came under attack early on Nov. 25, 2020, local time. Ambrey, a private maritime security company based in the United Kingdom, said that the tanker had originally set sail from Rotterdam in the Netherlands carrying an unspecified cargo, which it had unloaded at the Shuqaiq Steam Power Plant prior to the attack, according to the Associated Press. Shuqaiq is situated on Saudi Arabia's southern Red Sea coastline around 60 miles north of the city of Jazan and less than 80 miles, at closest, from the Yemeni border.

"The explosion took place in port limits and punctured the hull of the vessel," Ambrey said in its own statement, appearing to refer to the port facilities at Shuqaiq. At the time of writing, the ship was still afloat and there were no official reports of oil or anything else leaking out into the Red Sea. Satellite imagery has emerged on social media showing what could be Agrari still at Shuqaiq's dock and indicators of a potential fluid leak of some kind.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 11:43:51 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3965 on: November 25, 2020, 11:42:48 PM »
Russian Oil Giant Announces Start of Vast Arctic Project
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-russian-oil-giant-vast-arctic.html

Russian oil giant Rosneft on Wednesday announced the start of operations for its giant Vostok oil project in the Arctic, part of the country's strategic energy plan which has been criticised by environmentalists.

... "The prospecting and exploration work are now underway, in accordance with our timetable," Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin said, adding that the design work for a 770-kilometre (480-mile) oil pipeline and a port had been completed.

The Vostok project, the cornerstone of Russia's Arctic ambitions, brings together several Rosneft activities in the Russian Far North, near the northern sea route that the company intends to exploit to deliver to Europe and Asia.

In February, Sechin promised Putin that the scheme would create a "new oil and gas province" on Siberia's Taymyr peninsula, the northernmost part of the Asian continent.

The complete project will represent a total investment of 10,000 billion rubles ($111 billion), including two airports and 15 "industry towns".

The project has also been forecast to create 130,000 jobs and allow access to estimated reserves of around five billion tonnes of oil.

The construction alone will require 400,000 workers, Sechin said.

Sechin said the Arctic endeavour would eventually produce 100 million tonnes of oil per year.

Between now and 2024 he said that 30 million tonnes would be sent from the Arctic along the so-called Northern Sea route connecting the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific,
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blu_ice

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3966 on: November 26, 2020, 10:36:51 AM »
My prediction based on myself alone is that before the end of this decade Russian economy will hit a brick wall because of all the built-in fossil fuel dependency. Oil, their main source of income will be hit particularly hard.

Oil prices may recover post-pandemic but road transportation electrification is already underway. Road transportation consumes appr. 50% of oil globally. Assuming an average 50% decrease in consumption per vehicle per year equates to 25% decrease in global demand for oil. Yes, there will be more vehicles, but OTOH -50% is a rather conservative estimate as BEVs oil consumption is zero. Hybrids also have an effect.

12-15% is consumed by aviation and shipping which is likely to remain more stable. Their consumption is unlikely to grow for many years though, as aviation will have hard time reaching 2019 figures.

Good luck opening Arctic oilfields.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3967 on: November 26, 2020, 04:25:21 PM »
USA Energy data from the EIA to August 2020 https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

I attach the graphs of
- primary energy consumption by source,
- use of natural gas by sector,
- use of petroleum products supplied.

Coal might be in its death throes but....

With WTI crude at 45 bucks a barrel, and Henry Hub natural gas at $2.93 mBTU, those inveterate optimists in the oil and gas patch will think about drilling again? (see last image)
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 04:31:00 PM by gerontocrat »
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