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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3950 on: October 25, 2020, 05:47:48 PM »
Explosion Onboard Russian Oil Tanker, Vessel Sinking
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/explosion-onboard-a-russian-oil-tanker-vessel-sinking/

A Russian oil tanker has been rocked by an explosion in the Sea of Azov and is now sinking, according to Russian media.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sebh1981/status/1320063421270937600

The Russian Government say that said the explosion on the General Azi Aslanov took place as the tanker was en route from the port of Kavkaz to the port of Rostov-on-Don.



The Sea of Azov is a sea in Eastern Europe connected to the Black Sea by the narrow Strait of Kerch, and is sometimes regarded as a northern extension of the Black Sea. The sea is bounded in the northwest by Ukraine, in the southeast by Russia.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Azov

Update: Maritime officials said the tanker wasn't loaded explosion may have been triggered by flammable vapors left behind from the vessel's previous cargo. (Never mind)

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« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 05:54:09 PM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3951 on: October 28, 2020, 05:55:39 PM »
Oct 27
Javier Blas: "BP shares close at fresh 26-year low in London | #OOTT $BP”

"And Royal Dutch Shell, which reports 3Q earnings on Thursday, closed today in London at a near 25-year low | #OOTT $RDSB"

https://mobile.twitter.com/javierblas/status/1321141534964764677
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3952 on: October 29, 2020, 06:55:27 PM »
The headline is about Exxon not rasing its dividend.
Another point of view is that Exxon has not cut it, given that "the company had relied on debt to fund its capital projects and pay the dividend because it wasn’t generating enough cash from operations to pay for both" and has told " investors it doesn’t intend to take on new debt in the near term".

methinks we may be looking at a company whose corporate culture is so ingrained it cannot change its path  - to doom?

Exxon Decides Not to Raise Its Dividend. Is a Cut in the Cards?
Exxon Mobil declined to raise its dividend this year, the first time it’s failed to do so since 1982. The move comes as no surprise to most investors. The big question now isn’t whether Exxon will raise its dividend, it’s whether the company will cut it. The stock has fallen 54% this year, but was up 1.6%, at $32.07, Thursday morning.

Exxon (ticker: XOM) announced late on Wednesday that it will keep its dividend at 87 cents per quarter. Exxon’s dividend yield is now 11%, a stunningly high payout for a company long considered a staple of the U.S. economy. It implies that investors expect the company to have to cut it. (When yields rise above 10%, it implies investors are nervous about the dividend.)

If the company does make any decision about cutting the dividend, it may not be until next year. The next board meeting to consider it is scheduled for January. Exxon will report earnings on Friday, and much of the talk among the investment community will likely be about whether the company can hold on to its dividend.

Exxon has boxed itself in somewhat by telling investors it doesn’t intend to take on new debt in the near term. The company had relied on debt to fund its capital projects and pay the dividend because it wasn’t generating enough cash from operations to pay for both. Without access to the debt markets, Exxon has been cutting expenses, including suspending employee 401(k) matches.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3953 on: October 29, 2020, 08:38:01 PM »
Exxon to cut 14,000 jobs as pandemic hits oil demand
Quote
Exxon Mobil Corp said on Thursday it could cut its global workforce by about 15%, including deep white-collar staff reductions in the United States, as the COVID-19 pandemic batters energy demand and prices.

Exxon and other oil producers have been slashing costs due to a collapse in oil demand and ill-timed bets on new projects. The top U.S. oil company earlier outlined more than $10 billion in budget cuts this year.
...
Exxon, which has struggled in recent years to regain footing after misplaced bets on shale gas and Russia exploration, lost nearly $1.7 billion in the first six months of the year. It is expected to report a record-setting third straight quarterly loss on Friday, and its third-quarter loss could reach $1.19 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES.

Exxon said the 1,900 U.S. job cuts will come mainly from its Houston-area campus, the headquarters for its U.S. oil and gas businesses.

Earlier this month, Exxon said it would cut 1,600 jobs in Europe. It has announced cuts in Australia. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/exxonmobil-layoffs/update-4-exxon-to-cut-14000-jobs-as-pandemic-hits-oil-demand-idUSL4N2HK4VI
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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3954 on: October 30, 2020, 10:38:49 AM »
Britain’s Profiteering Spymasters Ignored the Country’s Biggest Threats

While spinning the revolving doors, they have endangered the public by neglecting  bigger security threats, like coronavirus and climate change, write Matt Kennard and Mark Curtis.

Almost all of Britain’s former spy chiefs are personally profiting from working for cyber security and energy companies after retiring from the U.K.’s major intelligence agencies.

In May, Declassified UK revealed that since 2000, nine out of 10 former chiefs of MI6, MI5 and GCHQ have taken jobs in the cyber security industry, a sector they promoted while in office as key to defending the U.K. from the “Russian threat.”

The British government was told for over a decade that the “gravest risk” to the country is an influenza pandemic, which its National Security Strategy identifies as a “tier one priority risk.” Yet the security services largely ignored health threats, despite claiming they are guided by the U.K.’s security strategy.

...

The last three heads of MI6 all joined oil or gas-producing companies, which are among the world’s largest contributors to climate change, after they left the service. Declassified can reveal that former MI6 chief, Sir Richard Dearlove, has earned more than £2-million from his role on the board of American oil and gas company, Kosmos Energy, which was until 2018 registered in the tax haven of Bermuda.

Another former MI6 chief, Sir John Sawers, has earned £699,000 since 2015 as a board member of oil giant BP, in addition to possessing shares in the company worth £91,300.

Climate change has also been largely ignored by the security agencies, evidence suggests, despite the U.K. government last year recognizing it as a “security risk,” adding, “There is no doubt that climate-related security challenges are real. They are here. They are now.”

...

It appears that no intelligence chief has ever made money working on the security threats posed by climate change or health pandemics. None also appears to have ever mentioned these threats while in office or after. Public warnings from intelligence chiefs which highlight the security threat from climate change would be likely to adversely impact the profitability of fossil fuel companies.

https://consortiumnews.com/2020/10/29/britains-profiteering-spymasters-ignored-the-countrys-biggest-threats/

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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3955 on: October 30, 2020, 05:43:43 PM »
Investment in upstream oil and gas infrastructure (new wells, pipelines, refineries, LNG facilities, etc...) is down an estimated 35% this year.  That will lead to reduced production in the future.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Investments-Are-Drying-Up-As-Crude-Demand-Falters.html

Quote
Oil Investments Are Drying Up As Crude Demand Falters
By Irina Slav - Oct 29, 2020

Thirty-five percent: this is the size of the spending cuts oil and gas companies are likely to have made this year in response to the effects that the coronavirus pandemic is having on demand, according to the International Energy Agency. And this is just the spending slump in upstream oil and gas. This is just part of a wider trend of investment cuts in the energy industry, according to the IEA, which earlier this month published an update of its World Energy Investment report, first released in late spring. At the time, some thought we were seeing the worst of the pandemic. They were, apparently, wrong.

Quote
The future remains marred in uncertainty that extends to the possibility of a rebound in oil investments. According to some, such as BP, we are already past peak oil demand, so that would mean less investment in oil production growth globally. Others, such as OPEC producers, hope things will sooner or later return to normal, and the world’s appetite for more oil will continue to grow for at least a few more years before plateauing. And yet even OPEC is preparing for a worst-case scenario.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3956 on: October 31, 2020, 03:28:00 PM »
reality comes calling - even to Exxon-Mobil.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/exxonmobile-warns-of-30bn-writedown-of-shale-assets-as-energy-prices-fall
ExxonMobil warns of $30bn writedown of shale assets amid energy price slump

Quote
ExxonMobil has warned it may write down the value of its US shale assets by up to $30bn (£23.2bn) following a steep drop in global energy prices that has led to the oil giant’s third consecutive quarterly loss.

The US oil and gas producer told investors it plans to reassess its North America gas business over the coming months, which could lead to impairment charges as high as $25bn to $30bn if it changes its long-term strategy.

The rethink will include a string of shale gas assets acquired 10 years ago through an ill-fated acquisition of XTO Energy, which was worth about $30bn at the time, but whose book value is in doubt following a steep collapse in gas market prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Exxon said its shale gas operations were among the assets “at risk for significant impairment”.

The slump in energy prices led Exxon to a net loss of $680m for the third quarter on Friday, compared with a $3.2bn profit in the same months of 2019.

The result was better than expected by equity analysts but Exxon still trails behind rival oil firms Chevron, BP and Shell which all managed a modest return to profit in the latest quarter.

The record quarterly loss, and what could prove to be the industry’s biggest writedown in more than a decade, will pile pressure on Exxon’s chief executive, Darren Woods, who had promised to protect the company’s $15bn-a-year dividend policy despite the historic industry-wide impact of the pandemic.

Woods told investors this week that he plans to make job cuts affecting up to 14,000 people employed across its global business, and will cut the company’s 2021 spending budget by almost 30% to between $16bn and $19bn to help shore up its balance sheet.

Woods has already cut spending for 2020 by a third, and promised to reduce its operating costs by 15%, after abandoning his plans for an aggressive, debt-fuelled overhaul of the company’s ageing portfolio set for this year.

Exxon’s decision to reassess the value of the gas assets it bought from XTO Energy in 2010 was “looming large for some time”, according to RBC Capital analyst Biraj Borkhataria, and may “draw a line in the sand on the poor timing” of the first US shale mega-deal.

Meanwhile, the second-largest US oil producer, Chevron, reported a quarterly loss of $207m, down sharply from a profit of $2.6bn in the same period last year, despite cuts to capital spending of 48% while lowering its operating expenses by 12%.

Exxon was once the most-valued company listed on the New York Stock Exchange but its value has plummeted in recent years, accelerated by the coronavirus crisis. The company’s market value has fallen to $136bn, and was usurped by US renewable energy firm NextEra Energy, valued at $144bn.

During the pandemic Exxon has also been topped by Netflix, which is now worth $213bn, and remains only slightly ahead of the video-conferencing firm Zoom, which is worth $133bn.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3957 on: November 02, 2020, 08:55:47 PM »
Quote
During the pandemic Exxon has also been topped by Netflix, which is now worth $213bn, and remains only slightly ahead of the video-conferencing firm Zoom, which is worth $133bn.

And Tesla, which is worth $377bn. :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3958 on: November 02, 2020, 09:05:32 PM »
Quote
During the pandemic Exxon has also been topped by Netflix, which is now worth $213bn, and remains only slightly ahead of the video-conferencing firm Zoom, which is worth $133bn.

And Tesla, which is worth $377bn. :)
Tesla worth priced at 377bn.

and anyway - hold the front page !!!!

- p/e ratio collapsed to below 800 !!! market cap only 376 billion iron men !!!

Shock!! horror !! sell sell sell !!!!!!!
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3959 on: November 05, 2020, 03:50:07 PM »
In the Hunt for Industrial Brine, a Surfeit of Sinkholes

Delicate work aims to fill a void in New Mexico before it collapses, but it’s a more expensive problem than expected.

...

When I&W, which operated the well for 30 years, was pressed to pay for fixing it, the company filed for bankruptcy. Liquidated assets produced $3 million, a small slice of a bill now estimated at above $54 million and growing. But the idea of fixing an invisible, indeterminate, potential disaster hit amid the very real pressures of the 2008 economic downturn, when lawmakers scrambling to close a budget gap raided the state’s reclamation fund. It took a decade for them to find money to tackle the task.

...

Activity has buzzed since last September. Initially, the goal was to have finished this past summer, but opening up the well to work on it offered a chance to collect new data on its dimensions. The southern portion was more stable than expected and filled quickly. That secured the area near the mobile home park and irrigation canal. But the northern end, some of which lies under Highway 285, proved larger than expected.

The cost of additional cement mixture would break the state’s budget, Veni says. “So what they started to do was to inject sand.”

Then, the cavity swallowed the quantity of sand expected to fill it to 70 percent, but remained only 20 percent filled. Sonar suggests two-thirds of the sand drifted into rubble from a previous internal collapse, instead of filling the void. “It’s going to take a hell of a lot of sand to do this,” says Veni — more than the state’s current budget can cover.

...

During injection, the effort costs more than $3 million a month, Griswold said during a September 2019 meeting, and, just as in 2009, the state is dealing with tight finances. Taxes and royalties from the oil and gas industry provide up to 40 percent of New Mexico’s general fund revenue, and lawmakers have had to cut spending after oil prices hit unprecedented lows this spring.

https://undark.org/2020/10/28/new-mexico-prevent-massive-sinkhole/

See the story for all the cool stuff about the sinkholes.

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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3960 on: November 06, 2020, 05:50:20 PM »
As the Big Oil companies slowly transition into energy companies and renewable energy, they have to deal with the stranded assets on their books.  Shell is finding it difficult to find buyers for their refineries.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shell-To-Shut-Down-Louisiana-Refinery.html

Quote
Shell To Shut Down Louisiana Refinery
By Irina Slav - Nov 06, 2020

Royal Dutch Shell will shut down its Convent refinery in Louisiana after failing to find a buyer for the facility, Bloomberg reports, citing a statement by the company.

The move, due to be completed before the end of the month, is in line with Shell’s plans to reduce the number of refineries it operates from 14 to 6 over the next four years. The plans, in turn, are part of its strategy to shift away from its core business and into alternative energy.

Quote
The Convent refinery has a capacity of 211,100 barrels of oil daily, and it appears that no other company with downstream operations is interested in additional refining capacity. On the contrary, as Bloomberg points out, refiners are closing facilities in response to the demand slump. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum both have refinery closure plans as well as plans to convert other refining facilities to biodiesel production sites.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3961 on: November 19, 2020, 08:00:39 PM »
Noorwegen geeft concessiegebieden voor oliewinning in Arctisch gebied vrij

Noorwegen zal 136 nieuwe concessiegebieden voor oliewinning aanbieden, zo hebben het ministerie van Petroleum en Energie en het Noorse Petroleum Directoraat donderdag bekendgemaakt. Het gros van de concessiegebieden, 125 in totaal, ligt in de Barentszzee.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6091528/noorwegen-geeft-concessiegebieden-voor-oliewinning-in-arctisch-gebied-vrij.html

Norway will open 136 oil concessions of which 125 are in the Barentz.

There is also a pending court case relating to 2016 concessions due soon. Not sure if that is another test of a governments internal coherence in policy. If you profess to be green these things just should not be done.

See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1364.msg293755.html#new for a (maybe) similar case in France.

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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3962 on: November 23, 2020, 04:54:54 PM »
Major Regulator Makes 11th-hour Move to Sink Banks' Oil Limits
https://www.axios.com/banks-oil-limits-regulator-4fdb88a1-5a48-4cbc-a68e-8cfccddec000.html

A major regulator is racing to thwart big banks' refusal to lend and service certain industries and projects — including Arctic oil drilling and new coal mining.

Why it matters: America's biggest banks are increasingly scaling back ties with fossil fuel, prison and gun-manufacturing businesses amid public pressure and changing investment preferences.

Driving the news: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — one of three key banking regulators — floated draft rules Friday that say banks can't turn away entire industries. Rather, they have to prove that they decided not to lend because applicants didn’t meet "quantitative, impartial risk-based standards."

"Politically controversial but lawful businesses" deserve "fair access to financial services under the law," the proposal says.

... "Contrary to the claims of oil-backed politicians, banks don't want to finance more drilling in the Arctic not because of some vast liberal conspiracy, but because it's bad business," Sierra Club's Ben Cushing says.

The big picture: It's the latest effort under the Trump administration to whittle away at investments that factor in industries' societal impact.

Earlier this month, the Labor Department finalized a rule that put a high burden on retirement funds that want to include investments that strip out fossil fuel companies and other non-sustainable businesses.

... The OCC is taking public comments until Jan. 4, and then would have a fast turnaround to complete the rule before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

The Biden administration — by installing its preferred OCC head — could unwind a completed rule, but that's complicated and slow compared to abandoning an incomplete proposal.


... so, he likes oil ... à votre santé!
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3963 on: November 23, 2020, 09:35:08 PM »
US oil refinery throughput is tanking and sellers cant find buyers for the excess refineries.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/11/23/oil-refinery-industry-stranded-assets-pandemic

Quote
Oil Companies Can’t Find Any Buyers For Refineries Struggling Amid Pandemic Crisis
By Justin Mikulka • Monday, November 23, 2020

Major players in the U.S. petroleum refining industry — which is experiencing a historic downturn due to the coronavirus pandemic — are attempting to sell refineries, with little luck. Unable to find any buyers, several refineries are becoming stranded assets as they are permanently shut down.

Quote
In the second week of November 2019, U.S. refinery inputs totaled 16.0 million barrels per day (mbpd). In the same week in 2020, the total was 13.6 mbpd — a 15 percent decrease.



Quote
As The Times' article on Delta explains, jet fuel has historically been known as “Steady Eddie” because it was a “predictable profit maker.” Then the pandemic hit.

The latest weekly report from the Energy Information Administration notes that while U.S. gasoline consumption is down 10 percent compared to the same four week period from a year ago, jet fuel consumption is down 40 percent.



Quote
Airlines would be devastated if business travel doesn’t return to prior levels. According to a study by Trondent (self-described as a “leader in global travel management solutions”), business travelers account for 75 percent of airline profits, while only representing 12 percent of an airline’s total passengers. If airlines can’t make a profit, they will cut more flights and consume less jet fuel.

COVID-19's long-term impact on air travel, and its similar impact on U.S. business travel, poses a major financial risk to the U.S. refining industry, which was already facing decline in demand for its products from another change in transportation — the electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet. As the electric vehicle market surges, major car companies are promising big investments in electric vehicle production.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3964 on: November 24, 2020, 12:07:29 AM »
Yemen's Houthi Rebels Say They Struck Saudi Oil Facility With New Type Of Cruise Missile
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37783/yemens-houthi-rebels-say-they-struck-saudi-oil-facility-with-new-type-of-cruise-missile

The Houthi strike on Jeddah on the Red Sea came amid reports of a secret meeting between Saudi and Israeli officials elsewhere in the country.

Satellite imagery shows what looks to be damage to an oil tank at a facility belonging to the Saudi Aramco oil company in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah on the Red Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen had earlier claimed to have fired a ground-launched Quds-2 cruise missile, a weapon the group claims it put into service just recently, at that site overnight. The strike certainly seems to have been meant to send a signal and came amid reports that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had secretly met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad in the Red Sea coastal resort town of Neom, much further to the north.

The strike, which occurred on the night of November 22nd, 2020, underscores the Houthis' ever-increasing ability to hit targets deeper inside Saudi Arabia with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as so-called "suicide drones." Jeddah is more than 390 miles from the Yemeni border, at closest, and the Yemeni militants claimed the Quds-2 flew just over 400 miles to reach its target.

Cruise missiles were also a notable feature in the unprecedented strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure in the northeastern portion of the country in September 2019, which the Houthis claimed responsibility for, but which the United States has accused Iran of carrying out directly. ... Most notably oil tanks were also targeted with significant precision in those previous strikes, something that appears to have now happened again.

It's also interesting to note that Jeddah is roughly the same distance away from Yemen as the Aramco sites in Abqaiq and Khurais, the facilities struck in September of last year, are from southern Iraq and northwestern Iran.

The September 2019 strikes were especially significant development as they showed how even a non-state actor could hold sensitive and otherwise important facilities and infrastructure at risk using lower-tier cruise missiles, as well as suicide drones. The Houthis, in particular, are among the most capable groups in this regard.

... The strike also notably came as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, better known simply as MBS, in Neom, something that was publicized and that the Yemeni rebels would have been aware of.

Israeli media outlets have reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Mossad chief, Yossi Cohen, also secretly flew to Neom to meet with MBS, either together with Pompeo and his entourage, or on the sidelines of that meeting.

-------------------------------------------

... which means they'll need a false flag operation to get the ball rolling ...

-------------------------------------------

Oil Tanker In Red Sea Struck In Mine Attack With Similarities To Past Iranian Strikes
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37834/oil-tanker-in-red-sea-struck-in-mine-attack-with-similarities-to-past-iranian-strikes

A Maltese-flagged oil tanker was the victim of an attack in the Red Sea off the coast of Saudi Arabia earlier today. The damage was attributed to a naval mine, but breached the ship's outer hull above the waterline, which might point to a limpet mine. Limpet mines were employed in a series of attacks on tanker ships that Iran or its regional proxies carried out in the Gulf of Oman last year. So far, no group has claimed responsibility, but Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have targeted commercial ships in the Red Sea in the past.

The MT Agrari, which is flagged in Malta, but operated by a Greek shipping company, TMS Tankers, came under attack early on Nov. 25, 2020, local time. Ambrey, a private maritime security company based in the United Kingdom, said that the tanker had originally set sail from Rotterdam in the Netherlands carrying an unspecified cargo, which it had unloaded at the Shuqaiq Steam Power Plant prior to the attack, according to the Associated Press. Shuqaiq is situated on Saudi Arabia's southern Red Sea coastline around 60 miles north of the city of Jazan and less than 80 miles, at closest, from the Yemeni border.

"The explosion took place in port limits and punctured the hull of the vessel," Ambrey said in its own statement, appearing to refer to the port facilities at Shuqaiq. At the time of writing, the ship was still afloat and there were no official reports of oil or anything else leaking out into the Red Sea. Satellite imagery has emerged on social media showing what could be Agrari still at Shuqaiq's dock and indicators of a potential fluid leak of some kind.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 11:43:51 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3965 on: November 25, 2020, 11:42:48 PM »
Russian Oil Giant Announces Start of Vast Arctic Project
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-russian-oil-giant-vast-arctic.html

Russian oil giant Rosneft on Wednesday announced the start of operations for its giant Vostok oil project in the Arctic, part of the country's strategic energy plan which has been criticised by environmentalists.

... "The prospecting and exploration work are now underway, in accordance with our timetable," Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin said, adding that the design work for a 770-kilometre (480-mile) oil pipeline and a port had been completed.

The Vostok project, the cornerstone of Russia's Arctic ambitions, brings together several Rosneft activities in the Russian Far North, near the northern sea route that the company intends to exploit to deliver to Europe and Asia.

In February, Sechin promised Putin that the scheme would create a "new oil and gas province" on Siberia's Taymyr peninsula, the northernmost part of the Asian continent.

The complete project will represent a total investment of 10,000 billion rubles ($111 billion), including two airports and 15 "industry towns".

The project has also been forecast to create 130,000 jobs and allow access to estimated reserves of around five billion tonnes of oil.

The construction alone will require 400,000 workers, Sechin said.

Sechin said the Arctic endeavour would eventually produce 100 million tonnes of oil per year.

Between now and 2024 he said that 30 million tonnes would be sent from the Arctic along the so-called Northern Sea route connecting the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific,
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blu_ice

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3966 on: November 26, 2020, 10:36:51 AM »
My prediction based on myself alone is that before the end of this decade Russian economy will hit a brick wall because of all the built-in fossil fuel dependency. Oil, their main source of income will be hit particularly hard.

Oil prices may recover post-pandemic but road transportation electrification is already underway. Road transportation consumes appr. 50% of oil globally. Assuming an average 50% decrease in consumption per vehicle per year equates to 25% decrease in global demand for oil. Yes, there will be more vehicles, but OTOH -50% is a rather conservative estimate as BEVs oil consumption is zero. Hybrids also have an effect.

12-15% is consumed by aviation and shipping which is likely to remain more stable. Their consumption is unlikely to grow for many years though, as aviation will have hard time reaching 2019 figures.

Good luck opening Arctic oilfields.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3967 on: November 26, 2020, 04:25:21 PM »
USA Energy data from the EIA to August 2020 https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

I attach the graphs of
- primary energy consumption by source,
- use of natural gas by sector,
- use of petroleum products supplied.

Coal might be in its death throes but....

With WTI crude at 45 bucks a barrel, and Henry Hub natural gas at $2.93 mBTU, those inveterate optimists in the oil and gas patch will think about drilling again? (see last image)
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 04:31:00 PM by gerontocrat »
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3968 on: November 30, 2020, 07:37:01 PM »
The world faces a 200 million barrel oil glut in 2021 unless producers agree to further production cuts.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Markets-Face-A-200-Million-Barrel-Glut-In-2021.html

Quote
Oil Markets Face A 200 Million Barrel Glut In 2021
By Rystad Energy - Nov 30, 2020

As the world is aching to put an end to a devastating 2020, oil producers are now assessing the lasting effect of the pandemic into 2021 – and in particular, the consequences of oil demand destruction to global balances. The existing OPEC+ group deal saved the market from collapsing earlier this year, but then Covid-19 came back with a second-wave. If output increases as planned from January, the world will have to face a new 200-million-barrel surplus through May, Rystad Energy calculates. The OPEC+ group will be debating whether or not to maintain its currently curtailed oil production levels to 2021 or to increase them as planned by nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd). The existing plan was drafted during the pandemic’s first wave and under a more optimistic forecast for end-year oil demand, which turned out to be too high as the pandemic’s second wave brought new lockdowns globally.

Quote
In a way, OPEC+ is already locked into extending its current cuts for some period in 2021 and probably knows it will be punished by the market if it doesn’t do so, Tonhaugen adds.

The oil demand recovery trajectory is the primary consideration of OPEC+ as it debates whether to modify its supply regime. We expect the second wave of Covid-19 cases to continue to surge through the end of 2020 and have a residual effect on oil demand in 2021, causing a slow recovery. At present, we expect demand for total liquids will not surpass 93 million bpd before year-end 2020.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3969 on: December 01, 2020, 06:53:56 AM »
Exxon Tries to Put the Worst Behind It With $20 Billion Impairment Charge
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/30/exxon-tries-to-put-the-worst-behind-it-with-20-billion-impairment-charge.html

Top U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil on Monday said it would write down the value of $17 billion to $20 billion in natural gas properties, its biggest-ever impairment, and slash spending next year to its lowest level in 15 years.

The oil major is reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic's impact on energy demand and prices, and is trying to protect a rich shareholder payout that is yielding 8.6% and costs nearly $15 billion a year.

Coming impairments include much of the value of Exxon's 2010 purchase of shale producer XTO Energy, a stock deal worth roughly $30 billion at the time. The XTO purchase thrust Exxon into the forefront of the U.S. shale boom, but was largely a bet on natural gas just before prices went on a decade-long slide.

Exxon will focus instead on Guyana, where it discovered up to 8 billion barrels of oil, offshore Brazil, and the Permian Basin oil field, the company said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3970 on: December 01, 2020, 10:10:13 PM »
Research is underway to convert low producing oil wells (which most shale oil wells become within a few years) into geothermal energy producers.  This helps to prevent the wells from becoming abandoned and leaking fugitive methane into the atmosphere while producing renewable energy.

https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/research-partnership-to-explore-conversion-of-oil-wells-to-geothermal-heat-and-power/

Quote
Research partnership to explore conversion of oil wells to geothermal heat and power
Alexander Richter
23 Nov 2020

Announced late last month, U.S.-based Petrolern LLC has agreed on a research collaboration with Southern Company, Research & Development, to evaluate geothermal opportunities in the Southeastern United States, including the conversion of late-stage oil and gas wells to profitable geothermal heat and electricity sources. This partnership addresses a significant problem with low-producing oil and gas wells which are sometimes simply abandoned without being plugged, which can have negative environmental impacts. As reported in the Oct. 1, 2020, issue of the Houston Chronicle, Texas alone is currently facing an estimated $117 billion clean-up problem from unplugged abandoned wells. Identifying and converting appropriate oil and gas wells to geothermal sources of clean energy, prior to abandonment, has many advantages. Besides protecting the environment, additional revenue streams from geothermal energy can be generated for years.

Quote
Geothermal energy production in the United States originates mainly from deep hot volcanic rocks. However, opportunities exist to produce cost effectively from shallower lower-temperature sedimentary rock formations, re-purposing already-drilled oil and gas wells and either converting them to geothermal wells or co-producing heat and hydrocarbons.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3971 on: December 02, 2020, 01:27:56 AM »
The linked article provides updates of forecasts of peak oil consumption ranging from 2019 (BP) to 2040 (OPEC).

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us/

Quote
Peak Oil Is Suddenly Upon Us
 By Tom Randall and Hayley Warren
November 30, 2020

A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil  had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.

Quote
As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.

BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent.

Quote
The list of energy analysts who now foresee a peak in oil demand keeps growing. It includes Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (peaking around 2027-28), Norwegian energy researcher Rystad Energy (2028), French oil major Total SA (2030), consulting firm McKinsey (2033), clean-energy research group BloombergNEF (2035), and energy-industry advisors Wood Mackenzie (2035). The exporting nations of OPEC put the peak in 2040 while acknowledging that its new forecast might still prove too optimistic for oil.

Quote
The gap between BP’s predictions for declining demand and the more bullish forecasts of OPEC and IEA can’t be explained by economic outlooks or remote work. Instead, it comes down to different readings of another shift clearly visible this year: drivers switching to battery-powered cars and trucks. Transportation slurps up more than half of the world’s crude, and three quarters of that goes specifically to wheels on the road. Forecasts for electric vehicles end up shaping the outlook for oil.

For the first nine months of 2020, car sales cratered. Every major automaker was affected—with the notable exception of Tesla. The electric automaker sold more cars than ever before. Even as the rest of the economy stood frozen, Tesla posted its longest stretch of profitable quarters and ended the year with inclusion in the S&P 500 stock index.

A closer look at the data shows it wasn’t just a Tesla story. Electric vehicles in general managed to thrive even as sales of traditional cars broke down. Both Volkswagen and Daimler saw record-setting declines in total sales, even while sales at their EV divisions doubled.

Quote
The divided fortunes of internal combustion engines (ICE) and electric drivetrains was first noticed in 2018, a year when EVs bucked the trend of slowing auto sales. Some analysts started to wonder if fossil-fuel vehicles might never return to sales levels of 2017. Back then the idea of Peak ICE was just a theory. The pandemic made it real.

Quote
Automakers are working on 35 new all-electric vehicles to be released next year, according to a tally by BNEF. In 2020, Tesla broke ground on a factory in Austin, Texas, to build pickup trucks and big rigs. Well-funded EV startups Rivian and Lucid Motors put the finishing touches on their make-or-break vehicles. Volkswagen sold the first cars on its new modular platform underpinning dozens of future electric models. Chinese automakers prepared for debuts in new Western markets: BYD’s Tang EV600, Geely’s Polestar 2, Xpeng’s P7.

Quote
The past year saw the first companies reaching the Holy Grail in battery packs: a cost of $100 per kilowatt hour. That’s the point that analysts have long believed will bring the cost of building electric cars in line with similar gasoline-fueled vehicles. After that, EVs will only get cheaper.

Volkswagen, the biggest automaker by cars sold, confirmed that its batteries had reached the $100 threshold for its 2020 ID.3 sedan and upcoming ID.4 compact SUV. China’s CATL, the world’s biggest battery supplier, also claimed $100 battery nirvana as it struck deals across the auto industry.

Quote
One of President-elect Joe Biden’s first moves afterwards was to name former Secretary of State John Kerry as special envoy for climate, a new cabinet-level position. Kerry, an architect of the Paris pact, vowed to rejoin it on the new administration’s first day. A push to set a 2050 end-date for U.S. emissions and a drive to clean up the U.S. electrical grid are likely to follow.

Now the three biggest global powers—the U.S., China, and Europe—are poised to push again on policies that accelerate the transition from oil. Together, the three are responsible for burning more than half of all the world’s crude.

It's a lengthy article, but well worth the time to read.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3972 on: December 02, 2020, 06:17:50 PM »
The air travel industry is projecting that there will be 1 billion more passengers in 2021 then they project for 2020.  However, that would still be 1.7 billion fewer passengers than flew in 2019.  That's very bad news for the oil industry.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-An-Air-Travel-Recovery-Wont-Spark-An-Oil-Rally.html

Quote
Why An Air Travel Recovery Won’t Spark An Oil Rally
By Julianne Geiger - Dec 01, 2020

Oil demand isn’t going to see a bump from air travel demand anytime soon, or so the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in a recent press release.

Quote
According to the IATA, 2.8 billion passengers are expected to travel in 2021. That’s 1 billion more passengers than it expects will travel in 2020.

But that’s the extent of the good news as pertains to oil demand, which has seen considerable drop off this year as a result of all the pandemic-related lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed on the world.

The bad news is, those 2.8 billion passengers expected to fly next year is still 1.7 billion fewer than in 2019. Percentage-wise, that’s still an ugly drop off.



Quote
The IATA summed up their bleak forecasts with this:

“Passenger volumes are not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2024 at the earliest, with domestic markets recovering faster than international services.”

The extra-bleak “at the earliest” qualifier should have the oil industry—and OPEC specifically—shaking in their boots. And they are.

Quote
And when we talk about demand destruction of crude oil, a huge chunk of it is consumed in the transportation sector. Global jet fuel demand accounts for 8% of the world’s total oil consumption. This means that when the forecast calls for a 50 percent reduction in RPK, we should expect a 4 percent drop in crude oil demand. And this is for next year, not for 2020. And for years, the IATA is expecting air travel to be diminished.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3973 on: December 03, 2020, 05:35:55 PM »
Trump Rushes To Lock In Oil Drilling In Arctic Wildlife Refuge Before Biden's Term
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/03/942052004/trump-administration-sets-last-minute-oil-lease-sale-for-arctic-wildlife-refuge

In a last-minute push, the Trump administration announced Thursday that it will auction off drilling rights in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in just over a month, setting up a final showdown with opponents before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

The announcement of a lease sale comes sooner than some expected: The Bureau of Land Management did not wait for the comment and nominations period to officially end before scheduling a sale date.

The Trump administration started the formal process of selling oil rights in the coastal plain on Nov. 17, when it launched the "call for nominations," a 30-day window for oil companies to confidentiality tell the government which pieces of land they would like included in a lease sale. That comment period ends Dec. 17.

Under a lease-sale agreement, the company would lease the land from the government and purchase it at the end of the lease term.

-------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3974 on: December 03, 2020, 06:15:09 PM »
^^^
Much like Trump's efforts to save coal, this action is symbolic in nature, and won't actually do anything. 

You left out a key quote from that article:

Quote
The sale, which is now set for Jan. 6, could cap a bitter, decades-long battle over whether to drill in the coastal plain, and it seals the administration's efforts to open the land to development. But the Trump administration's plan for the sale may also draw legal challenges from drilling opponents, who could target the aggressive timeline in court.

It won't be a problem to get a stay of the sales until past noon of January 20, 2021.  Ignoring statutory requirements for public comment periods is a loser in court.  After January 20, 2021, President Biden's executive order halting new leases for oil and gas drilling on Federal lands will go into effect.

Also, keep in mind that there's a law that allows Congress to review and overturn any rules issued by the Executive branch within the last six months of the Administration.  Republicans used it extensively in early 2017, so expect the Democrats to return the favor in 2021. 

Biden's administration is already drafting the Executive Orders that will be issued when he takes office and I'm sure that Congress has a list of recently issued rules that they'll overturn.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3975 on: December 03, 2020, 08:28:30 PM »
I am not sure if there is much interest in alaska oil at this time anyway. The big players at least have pulled out.

P-maker

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3976 on: December 04, 2020, 12:25:15 PM »
The Danish government agreed yesterday evening with a majority of parliament to end all oil and gas exploration in the North Sea now and close all activities by 2050 at the latest.

A few "patches" were given in order to swallow the bitter pill for those involved. This included 200 MDKK to pursue CCS in depleted oilfields and 90 MDKK to help the green transition. Noone dared to mention the bill for cleaning up the Danish part of the North Sea. I guess the tax payers will contribute through tax excemptions to those companies trying to flee the area now.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3977 on: December 09, 2020, 08:11:04 PM »
Influential New York pension fund will drop fossil-fuel stocks, put pressure on utilities and auto makers to cut emissions
Dec. 9, 2020
Quote
New York’s $226 billion pension fund sets 2040 net-zero carbon emissions target
New York State’s $226 billion pension fund, one of the world’s largest and most influential investors, will eliminate many of its fossil-fuel stocks in the next five years, officials said Wednesday.

In addition to the split from oil, gas, oil-services and pipeline companies, the fund will sell shares in other companies that contribute to global warming by 2040, the state comptroller added.
“Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 will put the fund in a strong position for the future mapped out in the Paris Agreement,” Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said in a release.

“We continue to assess energy-sector companies in our portfolio for their future ability to provide investment returns in light of the global consensus on climate change. Those that fail to meet our minimum standards may be removed from our portfolio,” DiNapoli said. “Divestment is a last resort, but it is an investment tool we can apply to companies that consistently put our investment’s long-term value at risk.”

New York’s fund, the New York State Common Retirement Fund, has historically invested about $12 billion in fossil fuels, the New York Times reported. The fund’s announcement comes after it moved to sell its stock in 22 coal companies last year.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/influential-new-york-pension-fund-will-drop-fossil-fuel-stocks-put-pressure-on-utilities-and-auto-makers-to-cut-emissions-11607538475
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Alexander555

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3978 on: December 09, 2020, 10:24:56 PM »
Now we just have to convince the arabs and russians to stop selling their oil. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/9/earth-to-warm-over-3c-despite-covid-19-pandemic-un

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3979 on: December 12, 2020, 05:44:34 PM »
Tesla (TSLA) will replace Occidental Petroleum (OXY) in the S&P 100.
Quote
Replacing an oil company with an electric-vehicle manufacturer highlights the old guard ceding its position to the new. Investors have embraced EV technology in 2020, believing it will eventually replace most gasoline-powered vehicles.

The S&P 100 is for the companies with the largest market capitalizations. Tesla’s market cap is almost $600 billion, while Occidental’s is now less than $20 billion. Occidental shares have dropped almost 50% year to date. Tesla shares are up 629%, crushing comparable returns of the S & P as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Tesla will likely go into the S&P 500 at about a 1.4% weighting. That’s very close to the weighting of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK. A) when it was added to the S&P 500. Tesla is the most valuable company ever added, and now it looks like it will match the largest weighting ever added to the Index. ...
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-is-joining-the-s-p-500-this-stock-is-coming-out-51607728521
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3980 on: December 14, 2020, 09:21:42 PM »
If Governments stick to their policies to rebuild from the Covid recession with low carbon electricity, future liquified natural gas (LNG) demand will plunge by 77% from current projections.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Bombshell-Report-Pours-Cold-Water-On-Global-LNG-Outlook.html

Quote
Bombshell Report Pours Cold Water On Global LNG Outlook
By Irina Slav - Dec 13, 2020

When the European Union tied its pandemic relief plan to renewable energy generation and emissions reduction targets, analysts sounded an alarm for LNG as the production of the superchilled fuel involves a certain amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Now, Wood Mackenzie is warning that global energy transition goals could threaten more than two-thirds of the world’s supply of liquefied natural gas, leaving trillions of cubic meters of gas in resources stranded.

This forecast is a stark departure from pretty much all gas demand projections, including from energy industry majors such as BP, which invariably see this demand growing as gas replaces oil as a less polluting fossil fuel, especially in developing economies.

Quote
A decline of 77 percent for projected LNG demand is quite a downward revision that will only add to the woes of an industry that has seen a supply boom, which led to a glut and a price depression that made some projects economically unviable. If indeed renewable energy ambitions take the upper hand in the coming couple of decades, the projected flourishing of the LNG industry as the world moves away from oil might never materialize.


Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3981 on: December 17, 2020, 06:27:40 PM »
OPEC estimates that $12.6 trillion will need to be invested in the global oil industry to meet forecast demand.  Given that renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels and that EVs are on pace to be cheaper than gas burning cars within a few years, that investment likely wont happen.  Investors have already turned from fossil fuels to renewables and EVs, and with oil demand dropping, that trend will likely accelerate.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Industry-Needs-Whopping-126-Trillion-In-Investments.html

Quote
Oil Industry Needs Whopping $12.6 Trillion In Investments
By Irina Slav - Dec 17, 2020

The global oil industry needs some $12.6 trillion in investments through 2045, the secretary-general of OPEC said at a videoconference, adding these investments would be essential for the industry to improve the efficiency of its operations.

Quote
Also this month, however, the cartel revised down its oil demand forecast for 2021. According to its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, demand for crude next year will only increase by 5.9 million bpd, a 350,000-bpd lower forecast than last month’s.

Quote
The cartel faces even greater challenges over the long term thanks to a rush among governments and companies, notably asset managers, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This would have a substantial impact on the oil industry, with some suggesting the world is already past peak oil demand.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3982 on: December 17, 2020, 06:33:32 PM »
^^^
Private investors are increasingly abandoning fossil fuels and investing in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investments instead.

https://www.etftrends.com/esg-channel/investors-are-re-evaluating-the-future-of-fossil-fuel-energy/

Quote
Investors Are Re-Evaluating the Future of Fossil Fuel, Energy
Max Chen December 11, 2020

Socially responsible investments like those that track environmental, social, and governance factors have gained momentum, and have even caused some to push off investments in fossil fuel.

Money manager Jacinto Hernandez, a partner at Capital Group Cos., has questioned the sensibility of still investing in oil and gas companies after the novel coronavirus pandemic crushed global demand for fuel and the near-term outlook on the energy sector, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Even before the pandemic cut the world demand for fuel, the future of the crude oil industry was already under threat due developments in electric cars, the proliferation of renewable energy, and a spotlight on the long-term impact of climate change.

Furthermore, investors are now faced with an uncertain path in the direction that the oil industry will take as oil prices no longer follow the usually predictable cycle of boom and bust. There are even signs that oil demand may not ever fully recovery. The International Energy Agency projects that global oil demand will peak in the 2030s. Meanwhile, capital expenditures in renewable power supply are anticipated to overtake traditional energy for the first time, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3983 on: December 18, 2020, 03:07:05 AM »
One Little Problem with the "All-Electric" Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the "Waste" Gasoline?
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec20/gasoline12-20.html
Quote
Petroleum is now an unstable system and for all the reasons outlined above it cannot be restored to stability: just as time is a one-way arrow, so is the loss of stability.
What can we expect? Unstable systems are prone to wild swings to extremes and unpredictable collapses. So we may see collapses in the price of oil as we saw in March, and then rapid ascents in price above $100/barrel, which then crash once demand declines.
This unpredictability complicates projections and generates uncertainty. This is the final paradox (#4): the unpredictability of oil markets is itself a destabilizing force. Decisions on future production and consumption cannot be long-term, and this constrains investment in future production.
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy--inextricably bound as debt funds consumption-- will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3984 on: December 18, 2020, 03:44:55 PM »
One Little Problem with the "All-Electric" Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the "Waste" Gasoline?
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec20/gasoline12-20.html
Quote
Petroleum is now an unstable system and for all the reasons outlined above it cannot be restored to stability: just as time is a one-way arrow, so is the loss of stability.
What can we expect? Unstable systems are prone to wild swings to extremes and unpredictable collapses. So we may see collapses in the price of oil as we saw in March, and then rapid ascents in price above $100/barrel, which then crash once demand declines.
This unpredictability complicates projections and generates uncertainty. This is the final paradox (#4): the unpredictability of oil markets is itself a destabilizing force. Decisions on future production and consumption cannot be long-term, and this constrains investment in future production.
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy--inextricably bound as debt funds consumption-- will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.

I think this is all part of the Peak Oil/Chicken Little/The Sky is Falling nonsense.  Good click-bait.  He's making his living off of offering dire predictions.

Petroleum has always had volatile pricing.  Transient gluts and shortages of an inelastic commodity do that.  Nothing here becomes any more intrinsically unstable due to a predictable decline in demand for petroleum.

There are lower-cost sources of petroleum, and higher-cost sources.  If market prices decline, the higher-cost sources shut down.  This corrects over-supply.  Increases in price accomplish the reverse.  Price instability is a short-term phenomenon (because of time delays in ramping production up or down). 

There's actually nothing here to merit the click-baity language he uses.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3985 on: December 18, 2020, 04:33:40 PM »
Let me put it slightly differently.

The waste gasoline is a weird concept if you think about it but they used to burn it before cars which was probably better then flushing it down the local creek.

The last two graphs in the article look at the different products made and the erosion in prices will have influences overall for all products.

So the more interesting question is how easily can we replace the other uses?


 
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3986 on: December 18, 2020, 05:44:22 PM »
The value of a barrel of oil is the value of each of it’s component parts, kerosene, gas, diesel , lubricants, LNG, combined.  Seems logical . And yes if sales and price of any component part drops either the other parts price rise to compensate or the value of your barrel of oil drops.
 Covid has monkey-wrenched how we use fuel, how much we travel , where we work, whether we attend meetings, fly, etc. and it is interesting to think about how those component parts of the oil barrel are faring . Kerosene use is down for sure so how does that affect the value of a barrel ? Are stockpiles of kerosene building ? Is price of kerosene dropping?
 Does society get back to pre-Covid travel and working conditions?  Pretty big issues . Demand destruction for component parts of the oil barrel is one part, and long term implications for renewables is another. Will US fracking resume even if oil prices increase ?
 So anyway it’s interesting .

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3987 on: December 18, 2020, 06:11:56 PM »
One Little Problem with the "All-Electric" Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the "Waste" Gasoline?
Oil & Gas has always been boom and bust. And the world economy keeps on growing regardless of the long-term consequences to the planet.

The growth in renewable energy and EV's though rapid gives the industry plenty of time to use up excess oil and gas produced and scale back production.
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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3988 on: December 18, 2020, 06:54:56 PM »
But the industry is not one thing and it is highly localized. In the article they mention the example of Saudi Arabia making money for 45+ per barrel but they need 85 for their business case/country.

To me the whole peak oil thing always struck me as an argument to go green and step into the future. Basically peak oil is making the argument you have an addiction that is unsustainable and we all know how that can end.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3989 on: December 18, 2020, 10:13:43 PM »
For all of its other flaws the one thing capitalism does best is balance supply and demand. It can result in short term pain but whoever acts to fix the imbalance first and/or completely receives excessive profits. Nothing and I mean nothing we use fossil fuels for is irreplaceable.


For fossil fuels I think peak demand will obviously constrain markets but peak supply seams unlikely to do so before we go extinct. One way or another someone will always provide supply as long as there is demand at the right price.

Rodius

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3990 on: December 20, 2020, 05:04:43 AM »
I havent jumped into fossil fuel replacement for a while.... so this thinking is likely outdated.

My understanding is that we are unable to replace the vast amounts of energy produced from fossil fuels from other sources.

So, in effect, to maintain our current way of doing things, we have to have a lot of our energy needs met from fossil fuels.
At the moment it is possible to slowly reduce fossil fuels to renewables, but at some point the ability to do that will end because the amounts of energy required from renewables is currently undoable in a practical manner.

I am sure the maths has been done to replace all fossil fuels, but the math and doing it are different beasts.
Do we even have enough raw materials to do a full replacement?
I don't think we do, but I haven't look into these things for a few years.... I could be mistaken now.

Anyway, unless we vastly reduce our energy requirements, we will always need fossil fuels.

As a second aside..... it is interesting that market forces like Super Funds andbanks are making it increasingly difficult to keep fossil fuel fund raising harder.

In Australia the Super Funds and banks are rapidly removing their investments and amount they are willing to supply debt to coal and gas companies which is making it increasingly hard for fossil fuels companies to do business.

It is so bad that politicians are getting upset (Australian Politicians love their coal) and setting up enquiries and processes to force banks to provide funding for fossil fuel projects in spite of it being uneconomical for the banks.

I suspect the politicans will fail, but the fact they are even going through the motions to manipulate the market forces they love so much to change how the market reacts is an endless source of amusement and annoyance for me.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3991 on: December 20, 2020, 09:10:34 AM »
I havent jumped into fossil fuel replacement for a while.... so this thinking is likely outdated.

My understanding is that we are unable to replace the vast amounts of energy produced from fossil fuels from other sources.

So, in effect, to maintain our current way of doing things, we have to have a lot of our energy needs met from fossil fuels.

Yes, your thinking is outdated. It is technically possible to replace just about all energy from fossil fuels with energy from renewables.

It is also economically as cheap or cheaper to replace most  electricity generated from fossil fuels with electricity generated from renewable energy. Using electricity to power cars is already cheaper than using gasoline or diesel. When batteries become cheaper, as they soon will, buying an EV will be as cheap or cheaper than an EV.

The good news is that at least in theory fossil fuels can be discarded very rapidly. The bad news is firstly that inertia and vested interests slow the process down, and more importantly, these almost infinite sources of renewable energy can power continued growth in the world economy that is destroying the natural world and on current trends quite likely us with it.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3992 on: December 20, 2020, 10:00:04 AM »
As a second aside..... it is interesting that market forces like Super Funds andbanks are making it increasingly difficult to keep fossil fuel fund raising harder.

In Australia the Super Funds and banks are rapidly removing their investments and amount they are willing to supply debt to coal and gas companies which is making it increasingly hard for fossil fuels companies to do business.

It is so bad that politicians are getting upset (Australian Politicians love their coal) and setting up enquiries and processes to force banks to provide funding for fossil fuel projects in spite of it being uneconomical for the banks.

I suspect the politicans will fail, but the fact they are even going through the motions to manipulate the market forces they love so much to change how the market reacts is an endless source of amusement and annoyance for me.

As we know the oil majors knew about climate change long ago but the decided to lie and lobby rather then to adapt. The politicians also prefer other people doing the difficult things which cost votes so they talk and kick the can down the road.

Now the long term investers and (re)-insurers look at longer time frame and have recognized that an investment in fossil fuels is a threat to the other investments. As more of their clients get the message more of these should divest away.
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Rodius

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3993 on: December 20, 2020, 01:35:35 PM »
I havent jumped into fossil fuel replacement for a while.... so this thinking is likely outdated.

My understanding is that we are unable to replace the vast amounts of energy produced from fossil fuels from other sources.

So, in effect, to maintain our current way of doing things, we have to have a lot of our energy needs met from fossil fuels.

Yes, your thinking is outdated. It is technically possible to replace just about all energy from fossil fuels with energy from renewables.

It is also economically as cheap or cheaper to replace most  electricity generated from fossil fuels with electricity generated from renewable energy. Using electricity to power cars is already cheaper than using gasoline or diesel. When batteries become cheaper, as they soon will, buying an EV will be as cheap or cheaper than an EV.

The good news is that at least in theory fossil fuels can be discarded very rapidly. The bad news is firstly that inertia and vested interests slow the process down, and more importantly, these almost infinite sources of renewable energy can power continued growth in the world economy that is destroying the natural world and on current trends quite likely us with it.

Good to see the it is possible.
I can now begin updating my mind on how and get some new juicy learnings in the process.

Thanks

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3994 on: December 21, 2020, 06:41:46 PM »
Sinopec, China's largest oil refiner, predicts peak gasoline demand in China by 2025.  Many refineries are being built there though, which means a lot of stranded assets.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Top-Refiner-Sees-Oil-Product-Demand-Peak-By-2025.html

Quote
China's Top Refiner Sees Oil Product Demand Peak By 2025
By Charles Kennedy - Dec 18, 2020

China's largest refiner, Sinopec, expects domestic demand for oil products to peak by 2025 due to COVID impacts and the rise of electric vehicles, Argus reported on Friday, citing Sinopec's research think-tank as saying in its annual report.

"China's oil products will enter a final growth phase before peaking in the next five years," the Economics and Development Research Institute (EDRI) at Sinopec said, as carried by Argus.

According to the research institute, gasoline demand in China will likely peak in 2025, while demand for diesel could peak as soon as next year.

Quote
Despite the expected imminent peak in domestic demand for oil products, refinery capacity in China is set to jump to nearly 20 million bpd by 2025, up from an estimated 17.83 million bpd in 2020, Sinopec's forecasts cited by Argus showed.

Quote
Surging Chinese oil product exports are set to put pressure on refiners elsewhere in Asia as the global refining industry is struggling with overcapacity. Refiners around the world have been announcing permanent closures of refinery capacity this year after the pandemic crushed fuel demand worldwide, and significant overcapacity still remains, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last month.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3995 on: December 22, 2020, 03:07:15 AM »
Industry forecasts are marketing public relations. They assume everything possible lines up to accomplish what they want. Us coal forecasters used to predict a turnaround and growth. As that has become laughably improbable now they predict the market will stabilizes soon. I think coal and oil forecasts  right now should be viewed as an unlikely upper bounds on the industry. If Chinas largest oil refiner expects demand to peak in 2025 it will probably do so in a year or two and diesel probably already has or is right now.


Growth is not the only narrative industries try to sell.  if they are looking for continued tax cuts they will show a substantial drop off after the current ones expire. If they want new tax cuts they might show a stagnate industry. Maybe they want to discourage new competition.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3996 on: December 23, 2020, 09:19:29 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

US Oil & Gas Data

Petroleum products
Covid-19 up to September 20 continued to depress demand - less auto travel and aviation.

Natural Gas
Looks like the only effect to Sept 20 of Covid-19 on consumption is to stop the increase.
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3997 on: December 23, 2020, 09:38:18 PM »
Also less heating. That's not so good.

In Luxembourg, on public buildings, we see an increase of the need for heat because of aeration needs in the context of COVID. But maybe the US have more home office and home schooling.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3998 on: December 23, 2020, 09:40:36 PM »
Why?
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #3999 on: December 26, 2020, 08:01:05 AM »
Less heating could mean that some people can't afford to heat anymore. The curve goes quite fast down. It could also be related to home office. In that case, it is no problem.

I can't imagine that during 2020 a major effort would have been done to de-carbonize heating systems.