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Iain

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4000 on: January 07, 2021, 02:15:46 PM »
In other news, there is little appetite for new Oil exploration in Alaska:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55564483

"Major companies, including oil giant Exxon, Shell and BP, have said they are focusing their spending on renewable energy, amid a huge slump in oil prices"
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4001 on: January 11, 2021, 08:45:31 PM »
Experts suggest we've seen both peak oil demand and peak oil supply.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Very-Real-Possibility-Of-Peak-Oil-Supply.html

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The Very Real Possibility Of Peak Oil Supply
By Alex Kimani - Dec 26, 2020

[Three months ago, British oil giant BP Plc. (NYSE:BP) sent shockwaves through the oil and gas sector after it declared that Peak Oil demand was already behind us. In the company’s 2020 Energy Outlook, chief executive Bernard Looney pledged that BP would increase its renewables spending twentyfold to $5 billion a year by 2030 and ‘‘... not enter any new countries for oil and gas exploration.’’ That announcement came as a bit of a shocker given how aggressive BP has been in exploring new oil and gas frontiers./quote]

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Delving deeper into the global oil and gas outlook suggests that it’s peak oil supply, not peak oil demand, that’s likely to start dominating headlines as the quarters roll on.



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BP has modeled 3 possible scenarios for the future of global fuel and electricity demand: Business as Usual, Rapid Transition, and Net-Zero. Here’s the kicker: BP says that even under the most optimistic scenario where energy policy keeps evolving at pretty much the pace it is today (Business as Usual) oil demand will still suffer declines—only at a later date and a slower pace compared to the other two scenarios.

The oil bulls, however, can take comfort in the fact that under the Business-as-Usual scenario, BP sees oil demand remaining at 2018 levels of 97-98 million barrels per day till 2030 before falling to 94 million barrels per day in 2040 and eventually to 89 million barrels per day three decades from now. That’s a loss in demand of less than 1% per year through 2050.
However, things could look very different under the other two scenarios that entail aggressive government policies aimed at reaching net-zero status by 2050 as well as carbon prices and other interventions aimed at limiting global warming.

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Though rarely discussed seriously, Peak Oil Supply remains a distinct possibility over the next couple of years.

In the past, supply-side “peak oil” theory mostly turned out to be wrong mainly because its proponents invariably underestimated the enormity of yet-to-be-discovered resources. In more recent years, demand-side “peak oil” theory has always managed to overestimate the ability of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles to displace fossil fuels.

Then, of course, few could have foretold the explosive growth of U.S. shale that added 13 million barrels per day to global supply from 1-2 million b/d in the space of just a decade.

It’s ironic that the shale crisis is likely to be responsible for triggering Peak Oil Supply.

In an excellent op/ed, vice chairman of IHS Markit Dan Yergin observes that it’s almost inevitable that shale output will go in reverse and decline thanks to drastic cutbacks in investment and only later recover at a slow pace. Shale oil wells decline at an exceptionally fast clip and therefore require constant drilling to replenish the lost supply. Although the U.S. rig count appears to be stabilizing thanks to oil prices rebounding from low-30s to mid-40s, the latest tally of 320 remains far below the year-ago figure of 802.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4002 on: January 12, 2021, 05:53:28 PM »
US gasoline demand is well off peak levels and hindering the oil industry recovery from the Covid shutdowns.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-The-Last-Leg-Of-The-Oil-Demand-Recovery-Is-The-Hardest.html

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Why The Last Leg Of The Oil Demand Recovery Is The Hardest
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 11, 2021

Over the past six months, excess U.S. crude oil and product inventories have declined from their surplus at the start of the summer of 2020. Petroleum inventories have been slowly falling and are now at just single-digit-percent surpluses over five-year averages, compared to 20-30 percent excess over five-year seasonal averages last summer.   Demand for gasoline and other petroleum products in the United States has recovered from multi-year lows in April and May, but the last leg of the recovery to pre-pandemic levels proves to be the most difficult and seems to have stalled at the end of 2020.

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However, the largest component of U.S. oil demand—gasoline consumption—was still down by a double-digit percentage. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 7.9 million bpd, down by 11.8 percent from the same period last year, EIA said.

This suggests that the last part of the oil demand recovery will be the hardest, with the most recent data pointing to a stall again due to reduced travel amid measures to fight soaring COVID-19 cases.

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U.S. gasoline demand was at the lowest level for the last week of December in 23 years (since 1998)—at 8.1 million bpd, with holiday travel down by at least 25 percent, AAA said last week. As of January 4, AAA expected gasoline demand to dwindle in coming weeks as the holiday season ended.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4003 on: January 15, 2021, 01:08:58 AM »
Alberta is Canada's most American province.
It reliably elects conservative governments (except when the regular right wing internecine wars rip the Party apart).
It is far and away the largest fossil fuel producer in Canada, and is the single biggest impediment to Canada achieving its climate commitments.
In recent years an otherwise undistinguished blogger called Vivian Krause concocted a conspiracy theory that radical environmentalists were being funded by a sinister cabal of American interests to shut down Alberta's oil and gas industries so that American O&G could reign supreme.
She got considerable traction in the fringes of Alberta's right wing during a period when they were out of power (subsequent to a split between the far right and the extreme right).
When a federal politician moved back into provincial politics and re-united the conservative factions into the currently reigning United Conservative Party, he did so partly by swallowing whole the conspiracy theory, under the assumption that the centrist party that had been in power was insufficiently enamoured of fossil fuels and thus fellow travellers to the foreign funded radicals.
To fulfill an election promise, the new Alberta government funded a public inquiry into 'Anti Alberta Energy Activities', apparently blind to the unfortunate associations between the name of this inquiry and the anti commie inquisition in America in the 1950s.
This public inquiry spent a lot of money commissioning reports that were intended to back up the conspiracy theory.
Today an Albertan law professor who had been asked to review these reports - by the Inquiry- released his take on the reports.
As one might expect, the conspiracy theories did not stand up to scrutiny.
Alberta's fossil fuel industries continue to decline despite this and other (E.G. changing land use designations so that the Rocky Mountains can be turned into open pit coal mines) initiatives.
https://ablawg.ca/2021/01/14/textbook-climate-denialism-a-submission-to-the-public-inquiry-into-anti-alberta-energy-campaigns/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4004 on: January 18, 2021, 05:59:59 PM »
Biden to yank Keystone XL permit on first day of presidency
Rescinding Keystone XL would negate one of President Donald Trump's own first actions in office and kill a project that had become a political totem in the fight between climate activists and the oil industry.

Environmentalists applauded the decision. "President-elect Biden is showing courage and empathy to the farmers, ranchers and tribal nations who have dealt with an ongoing threat that disrupted their lives for over a decade"
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/17/biden-yank-keystone-pipeline-permit-460142
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4005 on: January 20, 2021, 02:07:25 AM »
What to do with all those offshore drilling platforms as the contractors go bankrupt?  How about turning them into the first generation of (sustainably fueled) offshore spaceports?

SpaceX bought two floating oil platforms from a bankrupt offshore drilling contractor for a mere $7 million just a decade after completion.
Six months after CEO Elon Musk revealed that “SpaceX is building floating, superheavy-class spaceports” for its next-generation Starship rocket, the company has already purchased and begun converting at least two retired oil rigs.

SpaceX is turning oil rigs into floating Starship spaceports named after Mars’ moons
By Eric Ralph January 19, 2021
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-building-floating-starship-spaceports-phobos-deimos/

SpaceX acquires former oil rigs to serve as floating Starship spaceports
 Thomas BurghardtJanuary 19, 2021
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Job postings by SpaceX have indicated that work on offshore launch platforms has begun in Brownsville, Texas, near their Starship manufacturing and launch facilities in Boca Chica.

Positions included crane operators, electricians, and offshore operations engineers, and several of the job listings specified that the position was part of the company’s Starship program. Job descriptions for these positions included responsibilities like “designing and building an operational offshore rocket launch facility” and required the “ability to work on an offshore platform in Brownsville, Texas.” …
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/01/spacex-rigs-starship-spaceports/

Aside:  The Boca Chica, Texas, Starship Production Complex has already begun installing equipment to produce propellent for its rockets, eventually in a sustainable manner as will be required on Mars.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4006 on: January 20, 2021, 10:10:27 PM »
Bad day for pipelines.  Keystone XL and Nord Stream 2 bite the dust.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Western-Companies-Abandon-Russia-Led-Nord-Stream-2-Project.html

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Western Companies Abandon Russia-Led Nord Stream 2 Project
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 20, 2021

The U.S. imposed on Tuesday sanctions on the Russian pipe-laying vessel that was expected to complete the construction of the gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, while several Western companies are said to have abandoned links to the project for fear of sanctions. 

The final stretch of the construction of the controversial pipeline now looks even more uncertain, and even Russian gas giant Gazprom has warned investors that the Nord Stream 2 project could be suspended or entirely discontinued due to extraordinary circumstances, including “political pressure.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Biden-To-Kill-Keystone-XL-Pipeline-Rejoin-Paris-Agreement.html

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Biden To Kill Keystone XL Pipeline, Rejoin Paris Agreement
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 20, 2021

On his first day in office on Wednesday, incoming U.S. President Joe Biden will sign executive orders to reverse decisions of the previous administration and will rejoin the Paris Agreement, revoke a Presidential permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, and issue a temporary moratorium on all oil and natural gas leasing activities in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.

Biden’s Day One Executive Actions will include an executive order under which the United States will rejoin the Paris Agreement. The instrument Biden will sign will be deposited with the United Nations today. The United States will officially become a Party again 30 days after that, the Biden-Harris transition website says.   

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4007 on: January 21, 2021, 12:58:50 AM »
The Nord pipeline may survive.

" the state government of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania established a public foundation that could take over potentially sanctionable activity "

"The foundation could offer the possibility of acquiring necessary parts and machinery for pipeline construction and, as necessary, make them available to the participating companies,"

"It is unclear if such a plan could avoid sanctions"

"About €250,000 ($303,000) for the foundation, named the Climate and Environmental Protection MV, comes from state coffers. The Nord Stream 2 building company has pledged an initial €20 million ($24 million). That gives the company's owner, Russia's partially state-run energy conglomerate, Gazprom, some say over the foundation's activities and leadership."

https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-german-foundation-fights-possible-us-sanctions/a-56241527

sidd

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4008 on: January 21, 2021, 05:43:44 PM »
The American Petroleum Institute  (API), a lobbying organization for the oil and gas industry, is dropping opposition to regulations to reign in fugitive methane emissions.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/API-Bows-To-Biden-On-Methane-Emissions.html

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API Bows To Biden On Methane Emissions
By Julianne Geiger - Jan 21, 2021

The American Petroleum Institute will support federal regulations for oil and gas industry-generated methane, the industry body said on Thursday, according to the Washington Examiner.

 This is in stark contrast to its previous position against federally regulating the greenhouse gas.

Methane is a part of natural gas and is sometimes vented or leaked during the course of its extraction, causing climate concerns that have been growing in recent years.

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API’s shift on methane regulations is about as severe as the shift in U.S. President from Trump to Biden, and the oil and gas industry is likely to see more such shifts courtesy of the regime change.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4009 on: January 21, 2021, 05:47:10 PM »
It looks like Biden will close the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, one day after Trump opened it.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Biden-Continues-Anti-Oil-Promises-On-Day-One.html

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Biden Continues Anti-Oil Promises On Day One
By Julianne Geiger - Jan 21, 2021

President Joe Biden will issue a “temporary moratorium” on all oil and gas leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, or ANWR area, Biden’s transition team said in a statement on Wednesday.

The statement comes a day after President Trump’s finalized 10-year Arctic drilling leases on nearly 400,000 acres in Alaska’s ANWR—an action he took on his last day in office.

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Unfortunately for Trump’s actions that granted hundreds of thousands of acres for drilling, leaseholders would still need to get permits from the Biden Administration before they can drill.

And it would appear from today’s statement that those leases are unlikely to come.

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While the Trump Administration boasted in its win leading up to the lease sale, the results of the auction were disappointing, with no major players taking an interest.

President Biden’s sparring with President Trump over the oil industry has so far included the Keystone XL pipeline project, the ANWR drilling rights, the Paris Climate Agreement, and banning oil and gas drilling on all federal land. Unlike the ANWR issue, Biden’s promise to disallow the Keystone XL pipeline will hurt.

Hefaistos

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4010 on: January 21, 2021, 10:32:22 PM »
The Nord pipeline may survive.

...

Of course it will survive!
Germans are rather pi**ed with the US FF imperialism. It's already become a matter of honour for them to complete the project and not have US empire decide about German and EU energy politics.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4011 on: January 22, 2021, 02:53:45 AM »
The Nord pipeline may survive.

...

Of course it will survive!
Germans are rather pi**ed with the US FF imperialism. It's already become a matter of honour for them to complete the project and not have US empire decide about German and EU energy politics.

In the US their is the often repeated phrase that the US is the most powerful country in the world. This leads to some trying as trump did to dictate what others do. Most powerful is subjective and can change based on your metrics but I do believe at one time the US was the most powerful country in the world. But that power came mostly by supporting its allies not by telling its allies what they could and could not do.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4012 on: January 22, 2021, 03:05:41 AM »
Unfortunately a number of those leases were sold. They were not sold to oil developers because they rightly assumed the would not be allowed to drill but they were sold to others who intend to develop other things in the arctic wildlife natural refuge. One of them was a development group and wanted to build a port and presumably a town around it. I believe 10 leases were sold and none to oil companies. A few went to state and local governments. I am not sure if they just wanted to protect their area or they had other plans. The original idea was to prevent any development not just oil and gas. The original round included 40 leases 30 of which received no bid. Further rounds were planned if the first was successful. I wonder if he can or did cancel those leases completely

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4013 on: January 22, 2021, 10:52:45 AM »
The Nord pipeline may survive.

...

Of course it will survive!
It sounds like you are happy with another oil pipeline, but maybe I am misreading this.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4014 on: January 22, 2021, 01:08:45 PM »
The Nord pipeline may survive.

...

Of course it will survive!
It sounds like you are happy with another oil pipeline, but maybe I am misreading this.
NOT OIL. The Nord Stream pipeline is to send yet more Russian LNG to Europe and Germany especially.

I thought this pipeline was opposed by the US because firstly it would kill a large slice of demand for US LNG, and secondly it would give Russia additional demand for its LNG. Really part of the US+NATO cold war with Russia.

I also thought it would accelerate Germany's closure of coal plants, which may be regarded as a temporary positive while renewable electricity capacity and a Europe wide two-way DC electricity grid are being developed.
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4015 on: January 22, 2021, 02:10:46 PM »
Thanks for the clarification Gero. My mistake.

longwalks1

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4016 on: January 22, 2021, 04:07:07 PM »
I might be wrong, but I do not believe the Nord pipeline is LNG.  It is gaseous, albeit at high pressure, like nat. gas pipelines I used to "sniff" for leaks for a short term gig.  LNG has added infrastructure to liquefy and later to revert to gas and concomitant heating and cooling that can degrade local environments. 

One of the worst examples I saw was a 1990's the plan to have a receiving plant for LNG Just off the coast of Mobile Alabama, but biologists were stating the problems of sea water being used to provide the heat to revert to gaseous (normal procedure is to use part of the nat. gas to supply that heat) would chill local water and impact oyster and shrimp larvae.  Not stated was the fact that natural gas was already being produced in the Gulf and that the planned LNG was to come from the Middle East.  Shipping coal to Newscastle.   

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4017 on: January 22, 2021, 05:47:04 PM »
I might be wrong, but I do not believe the Nord pipeline is LNG.  It is gaseous, albeit at high pressure, like nat. gas pipelines I used to "sniff" for leaks for a short term gig.  LNG has added infrastructure to liquefy and later to revert to gas and concomitant heating and cooling that can degrade local environments. 
I am sure you are right. So if natural Gas is going to be with Germany for some time (as it is), far better to bring it in gaseous form from Russia than as LNG from the USA.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4018 on: January 22, 2021, 05:58:11 PM »
^^^
I don't know about that.  First there is the geopolitical concern, with Russia being a kleptocracy being run by Putin whereas USA is still a Democracy (barely) under an administration that will now enforce environmental regulations.

So are the carbon emissions from the energy used in liquifying and then returning the natural gas to gaseous form and then transporting it from the USA to Europe more than the additional fugitive methane emissions and the energy used to pump it from Russia to Germany?  Keep in mind that much of the electricity in Texas and increasingly more of the southern US is now being generated by wind and solar.  Russia still generates almost all of their electricity from fossil fuels.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4019 on: January 22, 2021, 06:06:43 PM »
Lets not get into the geopolitics too much here (we have another thread for that).

For the EU mix it probably does not matter that much, we should use neither although that is not realistic yet.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4020 on: January 23, 2021, 10:31:32 PM »
Seems that Biden is not holding back. Shrieks of horror from the American Petroleum Institute.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-industry-reels-biden-targets-113000874.html

Oil Industry Reels as Biden Targets Fossil Fuels in First Days
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Hours after taking office, President Joe Biden made good on a campaign promise to cancel the Keystone XL oil pipeline. Later that day his Interior Department mandated that only top agency leaders could approve new drilling permits over the next two months.

Next week, according to people familiar with the plans, Biden will go even further: suspending the sale of oil and gas leases on federal land, where the U.S. gets 10% of its supplies.

The actions sent oil producers’ stocks tumbling and raised blood pressure across the industry.

“In the first couple of days of the new administration, they are taking actions that will harm the economy and cost Americans their jobs,” said Frank Macchiarola, a senior vice president of policy for the American Petroleum Institute. “We’re concerned, and everyone in the country should be concerned.”

The Interior Department’s order, signed late Wednesday, changes procedures for 60 days while the agency’s new leadership gets into place. It requires top brass to sign off on oil leases and permits as well as decisions about hiring, mining operations and environmental reviews.

The industry took it as a bad omen. Officials are worried that technical permitting decisions are being placed in the hands of political appointees, rather than expert regulators in the field. And they’re concerned permits -- or simply changes to them -- will be delayed for existing drilling operations.

Moreover, many interpreted it as a prelude to broader actions, including the administration’s plan to next week impose a moratorium on all oil, gas and coal leasing across some 700 million acres (2.8 million hectares) of federal land.

This “announcement is intended as a temporary ban on leasing and permitting but is also a precursor to a longer-term ban,” said Kathleen Sgamma, head of the Western Energy Alliance, which has threatened to go to court to battle any such blockade.
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4021 on: January 27, 2021, 01:34:45 AM »
Investors continue to shift their money from oil and gas to wind and solar, which may create a problem for oil and gas within the decade.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Underinvestment-In-Oil-And-Gas-May-Cause-Major-Problems.html

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Underinvestment In Oil And Gas May Cause Major Problems
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 26, 2021

Following an unpredictable and shocking 2020, stability and sustainability are set to be the two major themes in the oil and gas industry this year.

Companies in the sector will continue prioritizing financial resilience to boosting upstream investments, as global oil demand, although higher than in 2020, will still be below the pre-crisis levels.

In addition, more and more oil and gas firms will include sustainability, the energy transition, and Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) considerations in their strategic and investment plans, Wood Mackenzie said in its first look into the biggest themes in oil and gas this year.

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Diversification into green energy, including renewable electricity generation, hydrogen, and carbon capture, is set to accelerate, as a growing number of oil and gas firms will start talking about decarbonization and net-zero emissions targets.

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The reshaping of the portfolios and the careful capital allocation after the third major shock to the industry in just over a decade will see continued underinvestment in oil and gas, analysts say.

The declining upstream investment, if not reversed in the next few years, could lead to a crude oil supply gap later this decade, regardless of when peak oil demand will occur. The world will need large amounts of oil even when global oil consumption stops growing.

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The industry will invest around US$300 billion in upstream oil and gas this year, flat compared to 2020, and close to a 15-year low, according to WoodMac.

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Rather than stalling, the pandemic accelerated the efforts toward a lower-carbon energy mix, also supported by growing pressure from shareholders, society, and many governments vowing to ‘build back better’ with a focus on clean energy.


gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4022 on: January 27, 2021, 01:32:06 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/
US Natural Gas  & Petroleum Products by use - data to October 2020

I attach graphs.
The petroleum graph shows the significant impact of covid on Aviation and motoring. It also shows the limited impact on heating oil and propane plus the myriad of other uses (e.g. lubricants, plastic feedstock)

The Natural Gas graph shows me two (2) things. Firstly the growth of the use of natural gas for electricity generation. Secondly, that despite this, the use of natural gas for electricity generation is still only 38% of the total use of natural gas. So switching from natural gas to solar + wind for electricity will reduce but not demolish natural gas use and production.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2021, 02:00:15 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4023 on: January 27, 2021, 06:16:31 PM »
Equity (stocks) investors have been increasingly switching from the oil and gas producers to renewables over the past year.  Now it looks like debt investors (bonds) will find it riskier to invest in the oil and gas industry as the debt rating agencies are lowering their ratings for those investments.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/27/rating-agency-sp-warns-13-oil-and-gas-companies-they-risk-downgrades-as-renewables-pick-up-steam

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Rating agency S&P warns 13 oil and gas companies they risk downgrades as renewables pick up steam

Firms including Woodside, Chevron, Shell and Exxon Mobil, told they could be downgraded within weeks
Ben Butler
26 Jan 2021

Rating agency S&P has warned 13 oil and gas companies, including the some of the world’s biggest, that it may downgrade them within weeks because of increasing competition from renewable energy.

On notice of a possible downgrade are Australia’s Woodside Petroleum as well as multinationals Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Imperial Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Shell Energy North America, Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips and French group Total.

S&P said it was also considering downgrading four large Chinese producers – China Petrochemical Corp, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, China National Offshore Oil Corp and CNOOC.

The rating agency said it had increased its risk rating for the entire oil and gas sector from “intermediate” to “moderately high” because due to the move away from fossil fuels, poor profitability and volatile prices.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4024 on: January 27, 2021, 08:49:14 PM »
U.S. drillers add oil and gas rigs for 9th week in a row -Baker Hughes
Reuters Jan. 22, 2021

Quote
...
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose five to 378 in the week to Jan. 22, its highest since May, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday. ...

Despite gains in recent months, that count is still 416 rigs, or 52%, below this time last year. The total count, however, has soared since hitting a record low of 244 in August, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1940.
...
Up is the wrong direction ...  :'(
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4025 on: January 28, 2021, 02:42:28 AM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/
US Natural Gas  & Petroleum Products by use - data to October 2020
 So switching from natural gas to solar + wind for electricity will reduce but not demolish natural gas use and production.
True but commercial and residential uses are mostly heating which is readily replaceable with heat pumps.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4026 on: January 28, 2021, 04:22:49 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/
US Natural Gas  & Petroleum Products by use - data to October 2020
 So switching from natural gas to solar + wind for electricity will reduce but not demolish natural gas use and production.
True but commercial and residential uses are mostly heating which is readily replaceable with heat pumps.
Readily replaceable with heat pumps?

Doable ? Yes
LONG-term costs savings ? Yes

The industry base? Currently small but growing. Even with Governments throwing money at it this is a very long-term project. I don't expect a big impact by 2030.

Residential
The Advantages of Heat Pumps

- Heat pumps are much safer than systems that are based on combustion.
- They are cheaper to run than oil and gas boilers.
- The system reduces your carbon emissions, and it has an efficient conversion rate of energy to heat.
- Less maintenance than combustion heating systems.
- Can provide cooling during the summer, effectively making it an air conditioner.
- They have a very long lifespan of up to 50 years. As a result, they are extremely reliable and a steady source of heat.
- (UK)You may be eligible for payment under the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme.

The Disadvantages of Heat Pumps
- Heat pump systems have a high start-up cost.
- They are fairly difficult to install, especially as research must be undertaken in order to understand the movement of heat, local geology, as well as the heating and cooling requirements for your household.
- Some of the fluids used for heat transfer are of questionable sustainability, and they raise environmental concerns. Hence it is recommended to use biodegradable fluids.
- The installation process will mean significant work and disruption to your house and garden. Work will have to be done on the actual building, including penetration of the walls.
- Some heat pumps experience trouble in cold areas which can damage the system. Therefore, full efficiency during the cold seasons cannot be reached. However, there are possibilities of an upgraded heat pump system that could overcome this problem.
- Electricity is required to run the heat pumps, which means that they will never be entirely carbon neutral.
- (UK) Special planning permissions are required in Wales and Northern Ireland, whilst in England and Scotland, it depends on your location and size of your property.

I would love to do it but despite all the Government blah-blah it is still in the too-hard basket.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2021, 04:29:01 PM by gerontocrat »
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P-maker

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4027 on: January 28, 2021, 06:56:18 PM »
Gerontocrat,

Fossil-free residential heating may also be achieved before 2030 through the use of larger industry-size heat pumps in central district heating systems. Denmark has lateley (2020) seen a tripling of - primarily baseload - heat pump capacity ( see https://planenergi.dk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Oversigt-over-store-varmepumper-dec-2020-Engelsk.pdf )

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4028 on: January 28, 2021, 07:58:51 PM »
U.S. drillers add oil and gas rigs for 9th week in a row -Baker Hughes
Reuters Jan. 22, 2021

Quote
...
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose five to 378 in the week to Jan. 22, its highest since May, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday. ...

Despite gains in recent months, that count is still 416 rigs, or 52%, below this time last year. The total count, however, has soared since hitting a record low of 244 in August, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1940.
...
Up is the wrong direction ...  :'(

Agree.  This is bad news on the upstream (drilling) side.  It eventually needs to go to zero, so this is just delaying the inevitable.

But the good news is that production is just steady (because shale wells decline so quickly) and demand is still depressed.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Increases-As-Oil-Rally-Takes-A-Breather.html

Quote
U.S. Rig Count Increases As Oil Rally Takes A Breather
By Julianne Geiger - Jan 22, 2021

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the United States rose by 5 to 378.

The oil and gas rig count has risen for nine weeks in a row for a total gain of 68.

Quote
Total oil and gas rigs in the United States are now 416 less than this time last year as we reach the one year mark since the coronavirus madness took hold.

The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States stayed the same for the ending January 15, at 11.0 million barrels of oil per day for the sixth week in a row—still 2.1 million bpd off the all-time high reached earlier this year.

Quote
WTI and Brent were both trading sharply down on Friday on increased Covid-19 cases in China and the UK, and persistent lockdowns that are continuing to stymie oil demand growth. 

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4029 on: January 28, 2021, 09:54:40 PM »
Gerontocrat,

Fossil-free residential heating may also be achieved before 2030 through the use of larger industry-size heat pumps in central district heating systems. Denmark has lateley (2020) seen a tripling of - primarily baseload - heat pump capacity ( see https://planenergi.dk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Oversigt-over-store-varmepumper-dec-2020-Engelsk.pdf )
I didn't know this was possible. Heat pump have the problem that in order to achieve a high efficiency, the temperature difference between the cold and the warm side should be limited as much as possible.
In the context of district heating, in order to limit the quantity of fluid (I guess water everywhere on earth) that has to move between the producer and the user, temperature difference is maximized.

So this only seems interesting in the context of very cheap heat, for example coming from a computer room.

I still dream of a local heat exchange network. It would have a temperature around 20°C, and buildings would be able to connect themselves in order to take heat out or put heat in, depending if they need cold for deep-freezers or heat for buildings. The issue is that such a network can't provide any guarantee, it would mainly help during the spring and the fall.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4030 on: January 29, 2021, 12:58:37 AM »
The proposed rule that would have prevented big banks from denying loans to the oil and gas industry (which is in big financial trouble, and hence a huge financial risk) is suspended as it undergoes further review.  This is not good news for the oil and gas industry, as equity investors have been fleeing the sector and banks are increasingly unwilling to provide risky loans.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Pauses-Rule-That-Says-Banks-Cant-Reject-Loans-To-Oil-Gas.html

Quote
U.S. Pauses Rule That Says Banks Can’t Reject Loans To Oil & Gas
By Charles Kennedy - Jan 28, 2021

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is pausing the publication of a rule that would make large American banks unable to deny lending money to oil and gas companies until the Biden Administration’s pick for head of the watchdog reviews the final rule and the public comments received. 

OCC said on Thursday it had paused publication of its rule that aims to ensure large banks provide all customers fair access to their services.

Days before the end of the Trump Administration, OCC finalized the rule under which America’s largest banks with more than $100 billion in assets cannot deny lending money to oil and gas companies.

Quote
But banks have grown increasingly aware of the reputational consequences of providing lending to oil and gas projects in sensitive areas such as the Arctic, for example. In the United States, Goldman Sachs said in December 2019 that it would decline to finance new Arctic oil exploration and production and new thermal coal mine development or strip mining. Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank have also said they would stop financing new oil and gas projects in the Arctic. 

The largest U.S. banks have criticized the rule, saying that it “would also appear to prohibit banks from using subjective judgment and qualitative considerations, including reputational risk, in deciding whether to provide a financial service, which is entirely inconsistent with how the OCC has historically expected banks to make risk management decisions.”

The Walrus

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4031 on: January 29, 2021, 01:59:45 AM »
Gerontocrat,

Fossil-free residential heating may also be achieved before 2030 through the use of larger industry-size heat pumps in central district heating systems. Denmark has lateley (2020) seen a tripling of - primarily baseload - heat pump capacity ( see https://planenergi.dk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Oversigt-over-store-varmepumper-dec-2020-Engelsk.pdf )
I didn't know this was possible. Heat pump have the problem that in order to achieve a high efficiency, the temperature difference between the cold and the warm side should be limited as much as possible.
In the context of district heating, in order to limit the quantity of fluid (I guess water everywhere on earth) that has to move between the producer and the user, temperature difference is maximized.

So this only seems interesting in the context of very cheap heat, for example coming from a computer room.

I still dream of a local heat exchange network. It would have a temperature around 20°C, and buildings would be able to connect themselves in order to take heat out or put heat in, depending if they need cold for deep-freezers or heat for buildings. The issue is that such a network can't provide any guarantee, it would mainly help during the spring and the fall.

Conventional heat pumps start to lose efficiency below 5C (40F), and at -10C cannot heat a home to the desired temperature (20C).

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4032 on: January 29, 2021, 12:53:57 PM »
Etienne,

Sofar, the only data centre contribution ( labelled Fjernvarme Fyn) at 24 MW capacity comes from an installation co-sponsered by Facebook in Odense ( the birth place of H.C. Andersen ). More of this to come I should expect, as planning permissions are tightened and common sense starts to rule.

By the way, pulling 30C water out of a drilling hole and heating a dwelling to 20+C during winter should not by any means be difficult for a modern heat pump.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4033 on: January 29, 2021, 01:22:44 PM »
Etienne,

Sofar, the only data centre contribution ( labelled Fjernvarme Fyn) at 24 MW capacity comes from an installation co-sponsered by Facebook in Odense ( the birth place of H.C. Andersen ). More of this to come I should expect, as planning permissions are tightened and common sense starts to rule.

By the way, pulling 30C water out of a drilling hole and heating a dwelling to 20+C during winter should not by any means be difficult for a modern heat pump.
I agree, but heat network in Luxembourg work with temperature above 95°C (even above 100°C in some parts), and the water has to come back between 30°C and 50°C, with some exceptions where the water can come back at 70°C. So for normal cases, the temperature difference is between 50°C and 70°C, which is required to increase heat density, to avoid using to big pipes.

In Luxembourg, there are few examples of IT rooms heating one or two buildings, but no network.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4034 on: January 29, 2021, 01:36:15 PM »
Etienne,

With underfloor heating in your house, you would need not more than 30C in the pipes. In order to avoid problems with Salmonella, you would need to raise hotwater temperatures to 55+C in your house occasionally, but that could easily be done using a local small and very efficient heat pump, whenever you need a hot shower. It may even be legal in Luxemburg to put a heat exchanger on your spill water in order to recuperate some of the heat lost to the drainage system.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4035 on: January 29, 2021, 03:00:35 PM »
Ken,

On the downstream side, it was announced a few days ago that Shell had literally given away it's Fredericia refinery to Postlan, a US investment company, which apparently believes in a future for green hydrogen. This plant has been on sale for more than five years.

First of all, the legal advisors seem to take the credit for all this, but eventually someone will have to pick up the bill to clean the site.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4036 on: January 29, 2021, 04:56:02 PM »
Etienne,

With underfloor heating in your house, you would need not more than 30C in the pipes. In order to avoid problems with Salmonella, you would need to raise hotwater temperatures to 55+C in your house occasionally, but that could easily be done using a local small and very efficient heat pump, whenever you need a hot shower. It may even be legal in Luxemburg to put a heat exchanger on your spill water in order to recuperate some of the heat lost to the drainage system.
I'm not talking about heating a house, but about long distance heat transporting (a few kilometers).

In a well insulated house, a heat pump really is a good alternative to oil, even the ones with a fan outside, it doesn't have to be geothermic.  I would add a pellet stove because a heat pump looses efficiency if fast heating is needed, or if the temperatures outside are very low. The pellet stove can probably run on batteries, which is not the case of the heat pump.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4037 on: January 29, 2021, 11:03:38 PM »
Conventional heat pumps start to lose efficiency below 5C (40F), and at -10C cannot heat a home to the desired temperature (20C).
The smaller the difference in temperature between outside and inside the more efficient the heat pump. So technically it starts to loose efficiency the moment it turns on. Old ones would not work at lower temperatures. Mine will heat to 20C @-20C outside. At that temperature difference it still has an COP (coeficient of performance of 1.5 meaning for every 1 unit of energy I get 1.5 units of heat) That is still better than natural gas which can approach but never reach as high as a COP of 1. At  0C COP is 3.2. at 15.5 C COP is 4.5 C.

If temperatures get cold enough frequently enough to justify an extra $7000 or so get a ground source heat pump which has a COP in the mid threes no mater what the outside temperature.

Heat pumps are most efficient when run at a constant temperature (smart thermostats lower the units efficiency) only turn it down if you are away for more than 2 days.

I wouldn't add a pellet stove. If you need heat quickly stop playing with your thermostat. It may be counter intuitive but you are making the unit less efficient.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4038 on: January 30, 2021, 08:31:05 AM »
I wouldn't add a pellet stove. If you need heat quickly stop playing with your thermostat. It may be counter intuitive but you are making the unit less efficient.

The interaction between different heating systems has been well described in the
Technical Paper 14 Keeping warm in a cooler house of the Historic Environment Scotland :
https://www.historicenvironment.scot/archives-and-research/publications/publication/?publicationid=f2f2ebfd-ff37-4417-be92-a59400bb2665

The document talks about heating oil as main load and infrared electricity for the comfort.

The same can be done with a heat pump and a pellet stove: you use the heat pump to bring your house up to 16°C or 18°C, depending of what you and the people around you require, and you can use your pellet stove to reach the 20°C or 22°C when you need a comfort temperature. The new pellet stoves can be programmed and controlled over a smart phone. 

With such a configuration, your heat pump will never have to work hard to reach a temperature, working hard means having a lower COP.

Since new houses are well insulated on the outside, but not between the rooms, the electricity consumption will be reduced a lot.

I have to say that I love the feeling of wood heating, so I am not objective regarding this subject. Normal wood heating is not possible in a modern house, because the logs contain too much energy and you would overheat the house. I don't see wood pellets ass a good alternative for the main fuel of the house because in some areas, forests are destroyed in order to produce it.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4039 on: January 30, 2021, 08:36:58 AM »
Regarding the COP,  when comparing heat pump and gas heating, you have to think that electricity production doesn't have an efficiency of 1, so if your COP is at 1,5 during the winter, direct gas or oil  heating would be more efficient (excepted for wind/solar/hydro). Of course, the solution is ok because the time of year with such a low COP is very short.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4040 on: January 30, 2021, 04:36:33 PM »
Regarding the COP,  when comparing heat pump and gas heating, you have to think that electricity production doesn't have an efficiency of 1, so if your COP is at 1,5 during the winter, direct gas or oil  heating would be more efficient (excepted for wind/solar/hydro). Of course, the solution is ok because the time of year with such a low COP is very short.

The whole point is wind/solar/hydro/geo not gas or heating oil
If you are running at 1.5 for much of the winter ground source heat pump will pay for itself.



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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4041 on: February 01, 2021, 07:17:15 PM »
Oil consumption fell by 9 per cent in 2020 and is expected to remain 3 to 5 million barrels per day below 2019 levels in 2021.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EIA-Global-Oil-Consumption-Crashed-By-9-In-2020.html

Quote
EIA: Global Oil Consumption Crashed By 9% In 2020
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 29, 2021

Due to the coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns, global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels crashed by 9 percent to 92.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday, nothing this was the largest drop in EIA’s series dating back to 1980.

Quote
Despite the expected growth in global oil consumption in 2021, EIA still forecasts it to average below pre-pandemic levels—at 97.8 million bpd, it would be 3 percent less than the 2019 level.

OPEC also sees oil demand growing this year from the crash in 2020. Yet, at an expected 95.9 million bpd in 2021, oil consumption would still be nearly 5 million bpd below the pre-crisis levels from 2019.

Quote
The International Energy Agency (IEA), for its part, cut in its January report its estimate for oil demand growth for this year by 300,000 bpd to 5.5 million bpd. The IEA expects oil demand to average 96.6 million bpd in 2021, after crashing by an all-time high of 8.8 million bpd in 2020 under the weight of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4042 on: February 01, 2021, 09:06:56 PM »
The UK has allowed North Sea oil producers to vent and flare natural gas while Norway has restricted venting and flaring.

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2021/02/01/north-sea-oil-flaring-climate-change/

Quote
Revealed: The North Sea oil giants fueling climate change with millions of tonnes in preventable emissions

Labour calls for flaring ban as documents obtained by Unearthed reveal the companies responsible for the climate-warming emissions spewing from North Sea rigs
1 Feb 2021   Lawrence Carter

The British government is allowing oil companies to release the equivalent of a coal power station’s worth of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every year by burning off or dumping unwanted natural gas into the atmosphere, Unearthed can reveal.

The practice – severely restricted in neighbouring Norway – is sometimes carried out for safety reasons but is more often an attempt to save money by getting rid of gas considered unprofitable to transport back to shore.

Quote
The top emitters include Repsol Sinopec – a joint venture between Spanish and Chinese state-owned oil companies; French oil giant Total; British oil majors Shell and BP, and EnQuest, a UK-registered independent.

Together these companies accounted for 43% of the total emissions from burning-off, or directly releasing, natural gas into the atmosphere during this period – practices known respectively as flaring and venting.

The investigation also found that, since 2015 – when BP, Total and Repsol promised to curb these emissions as part of their commitment to the Paris Agreement – venting and flaring  emissions from their North Sea operations actually increased.

Quote
Between 2015-19, oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea released 20 million tonnes of CO2e into the atmosphere through venting and flaring, with the average annual emissions over this period equivalent to those of a coal-fired power station.

Quote
In recent years both Shell and BP have sought to encourage public debate about how individuals can reduce their own emissions – with the latter even launching a carbon footprint calculator that encourages users to “pledge” to BP the amount by which they will cut their climate impact.

Yet, according to the data, the combined emissions from venting and flaring by the two companies in the North Sea alone were equivalent to 5 million people flying from London to New York and back.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4043 on: February 03, 2021, 12:41:38 AM »
According to industry experts, the oil and gas industry is now operating on borrowed time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/big-oil-climate-and-covid-energy-experts-on-the-industrys-outlook.html

Quote
An industry ‘operating on borrowed time’: Energy experts on the increasing risks ahead for Big Oil
Published Tue, Feb 2 2021
Sam Meredith

LONDON — Big Oil endured a brutal 12 months by virtually every measure last year and the global oil and gas industry faces significant challenges and uncertainties as it seeks to recover.

Quote
As oil and gas supermajors seek to reassure investors about a return to profitability in the coming months, energy experts are split on how quickly the industry will transition away from fossil fuels.

Quote
The latest setback for the oil and gas industry came as S&P Global ratings — one of the most influential rating companies — warned last week that it may cut the credit score on a number of major producers, including ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Total.

The rating firm said it believes “the energy transition, price volatility, and weaker profitability are increasing risks for oil and gas producers.”

The industry faces growing pressure from policymakers around the world, with the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden quickly making tackling the climate emergency a top priority.

“Was 2019 peak oil? That’s very likely. Even if 2019 proves not to have been peak oil, this is an industry that is really operating on borrowed time,” Muffett said. “That’s why you see at least some of the majors starting to recognize that they need to more aggressively build a portfolio beyond oil.”


gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4044 on: February 03, 2021, 03:10:45 PM »
IEA does produce monthly oil data for OECD @ https://www.iea.org/reports/monthly-oil-statistics

Not nearly as comprehensive as for Electricity, and no China / India data. Pity

I attach a table and graphs for data to October 20. Does show well the impact of Covid on motoring and especially aviation. The next few months should be interesting - will we see BAU in Spring '21?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4045 on: February 03, 2021, 05:59:24 PM »
US Crude, Natural Gas & Gasoline

Production volumes may not have recovered to BAU levels (yet), but prices have.

But then again, it does improve the cost comparison with solar+wind & EVs.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4046 on: February 04, 2021, 07:57:55 PM »
Investment in the oil and gas industry decreased substantially last year.  Renewables are taking an increasing share of the electricity generation market.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-COVID-19-Pandemic-Has-Upended-Global-Energy-Investment-Trends.html

Quote
The COVID-19 Pandemic Has Upended Global Energy Investment Trends
By Kirill Rodionov - Feb 04, 2021

The pandemic has not broken but intensified global energy trends that emerged on the eve of COVID-19, whether it be the collapse of coal-fired power generation, the growing surplus of oil production, or the booming interest in renewables

The further 2020 goes into history, the clearer the extent of last year's collapse in fossil fuel demand becomes. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2020, global crude oil demand decreased by 9%, to 92.2 million barrels per day (bpd) – the level at which it was in 2013 (92.3 million bpd). In the second quarter, which was the most painful for the world economy, oil demand (85 million bpd) fell back to the 2006 values (85.3 million bpd).

The same goes for natural gas and coal, two other key resources in the global energy mix. The drop in global gas demand reached 3% (122 billion cubic meters (bcm) in absolute terms, which is comparable to the total pre-crisis consumption in France and Italy), and for coal, that figure is 5% (384 million tons), becoming the most serious since the Second World War, as follows from the International Energy Agency.

Quote
The growth of renewables perhaps is just as irreversible as the demise of coal. From 2010 to 2019, the share of renewables (excluding hydroelectric power plants) in total electricity generation increased from 4% to 11% in the United States and from 9% to 24% in the EU, as follows from EIA and Ember. Regarding absolute terms, the generation from renewables both in the US and in the EU has more than doubled over the same period (up to 440 TWh and 768 TWh, respectively).

As in the case of coal-fired generation, COVID-19 has strengthened the already existing trend: during the first eleven months of 2020, generation from renewables increased in the US by 13.2%, and in the UK and the EU – by 10.1%, while generation from all sources decreased by 3.3% and 4.7%, respectively.

Solar and wind energy displaces coal and natural gas in Europe. From 2010 to 2019, the share of gas generation increased in the United States from 24% to 38%, while in the EU, it has slightly fluctuated around 20%. This largely explains why during the first eleven months of 2020, gas power generation increased in the United States by 2.5%, while in the UK and the EU, it decreased by 6.1%. The reason is the already mentioned cost advantage: the value-adjusted levelized cost of electricity at gas turbine stations in the EU is higher than at solar-PV panels and wind onshore farms ($75 versus $60 and $55 per MWh, according to the latest IEA estimates).

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In 2020, global capital investment in gas production fell by 34% (to $188 billion, according to the IEA). When the world economy recovers, investment activity is likely to return to the pre-crisis level. However, producers still cannot avoid risks – as due to a decrease in gas demand in Europe (on average by 0.5% per year over the next ten years, as follows from the IEA baseline forecast) and the rapid growth in demand for renewable energy (by 6.1% per year globally over the same period, excluding biofuels). Several months ago, this forced the Russian Ministry of Energy to warn that large-scale LNG projects must be completed by 2030 – otherwise, they will not pay off due to competition with renewables.

The oil industry has not escaped investment squeeze either: in 2020, global capital investments in crude oil production decreased by 33% (to $315 billion, according to the IEA). Perhaps this will reduce the surplus of supply in the coming years, but by the end of 2020, exceeding production capacity has become more pronounced – both because of the OPEC production cuts (by 12%, to 30.6 million bpd, according to the EIA), and the rise of supply from countries that did not join the April deal.

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Therefore, OPEC+ efforts will not have a long-term price effect. Not least because the OECD countries have passed the peak of oil demand (the latest long-term forecasts of the IEA, BP and OPEC agreed on this), while in China its growth will inevitably slow down – from 5.5% per year in 2009-2019 years to 1.3% per year until 2030, according to the IEA baseline forecast – due to the increase in the number of electric vehicles (in 2019, China ranked first in the EV global market with a share of 47%).

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4047 on: February 04, 2021, 09:52:13 PM »
The Rachel Maddow Show last night had a segment onthe Oil Industry as being seriously weakened by the pandemic and PV & wind developments, making it possible for the Biden administration to enact policies good for cleaner technologies.  Easier to beat up a big fellow while he is down, was a theme.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4048 on: February 07, 2021, 07:00:51 PM »
Houston, Texas
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Whole Mars Catalog:
Imagine being an oil executive and waking up to this earlier this morning

Justin Worland (@JustinWorland) 2/7/21, 9:46 AM
Today’s front page at the U.S. oil and gas industry’s hometown newspaper
https://twitter.com/justinworland/status/1358426888172093442
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4049 on: February 09, 2021, 11:45:38 AM »
BUT - State-owned oil companies.......

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/state-owned-fossil-fuel-firms-planning-19tn-investments
State-owned fossil fuel firms' plan to invest $1.9tn could destroy climate hopes

Oil projects over the next decade would destroy hopes of meeting Paris climate goals, thinktank warns



‘One last party’: the report says the oil industry will be investing trillions before the transition away from fossil fuels. Photograph: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images
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The world’s state-owned fossil fuel companies are poised to invest about $1.9tn (£1.4tn) in the next decade in projects that would destroy any prospect of meeting the Paris agreement climate goals.

A large proportion of these investments are likely to become stranded assets, with at least $400bn unlikely to be profitable if the world sticks to its promises to hold global heating to less than 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels, according to a report from the Natural Resource Governance Institute** thinktank.

Oil prices collapsed last year to about $40 during the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns but have since recovered some ground to about $60 a barrel, and many fossil fuel companies are expecting a return to business as usual this year or next, and are planning for future expansion.

David Manley, the lead author of the report and a senior economic analyst at the thinktank, said: “A lot of the oil industry wants one last party, and they are going to invest trillions. We are worried about how long that party will continue. If the energy transition [away from fossil fuels and into clean energy] is to be fast enough to meet the Paris agreement, the party needs to be over very quickly.”

In the report, entitled Risky Bet: National Oil Companies in the Energy Transition, the authors made the dilemma clear: “Either the world does what’s necessary to limit global warming, or national oil companies can profit from these investments. Both are not possible.”

National oil companies (NOCs) produce about two-thirds of the world’s oil and gas and own about 90% of reserves. They are rarely scrutinised, however, as their state ownership means they can operate secretively, without publishing much detail on their finances or operations, as publicly listed oil companies such as Exxon, BP and Shell must.

**https://resourcegovernance.org/analysis-tools/publications/risky-bet-national-oil-companies-energy-transition
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