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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4050 on: February 09, 2021, 06:38:00 PM »
While Sinopec, Aramco, Rosneft are stuck in the past, private oil companies are quickly diversifying to become energy companies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/business/oil-companies-offshore-wind-britain.html

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Oil Giants Win Offshore Wind Leases in Britain

BP and Total plan to spend billions of dollars developing the wind farms in an effort to aid their shift to renewable energy.
Stanley Reed
Feb. 8, 2021

Two giant oil companies won the largest share of options to build new offshore wind farms awarded by Britain on Monday, investments that are expected to eventually total in the tens of billions of dollars.

The options were a big move by major petroleum producers into an industry that has for years been dominated by smaller, specialized companies.

The winning bidders, including BP and the French oil company Total, agreed to initially pay a total of 879 million pounds (about $1.2 billion) in deposits to develop offshore wind farms that will provide sufficient power to light up seven million homes.

Given how quickly EVs are taking market share, the State owned oil companies may regret their investment decisions.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4051 on: February 09, 2021, 06:58:59 PM »
While Sinopec, Aramco, Rosneft are stuck in the past, private oil companies are quickly diversifying to become energy companies.

Given how quickly EVs are taking market share, the State owned oil companies may regret their investment decisions.
China can absorb SINOPEC gouing bust.
If / when Aramco & Rosneft and the other State-owned oil cos. go bust, the chances are Saudi Arabia, The Russian Federation and good few other oil States will go bust too.

It would not be wise to assume that will make the world a safer or better place, at least not for  for some considerable time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4052 on: February 09, 2021, 07:51:16 PM »
While Sinopec, Aramco, Rosneft are stuck in the past, private oil companies are quickly diversifying to become energy companies.

Given how quickly EVs are taking market share, the State owned oil companies may regret their investment decisions.
China can absorb SINOPEC gouing bust.
If / when Aramco & Rosneft and the other State-owned oil cos. go bust, the chances are Saudi Arabia, The Russian Federation and good few other oil States will go bust too.

It would not be wise to assume that will make the world a safer or better place, at least not for  for some considerable time.
Maybe we will simply see a reduction of the recoverable reserves. We use to have a demand growth and it was variations in the production capacity which impacted the prices. If demand doesn't grow anymore, there will not be any guaranty that prices could go up again long enough to bring an ROI, so only conventional oil and existing on non conventional might bring interesting incomes, and that's much less than actual reserves.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4053 on: February 10, 2021, 09:23:47 PM »
Gasoline demand recovery has been hampered by new lockdowns to combat the spread of Covid-19.  And now new fuel economy standards and the increased market share of EVs has brought peak gasoline demand ahead to 2022 according to the US EIA.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Gasoline-Demand-Faces-Weakness-Despite-Vaccine-Rollout.html

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Gasoline Demand Faces Weakness Despite Vaccine Rollout
By Irina Slav - Feb 10, 2021

In the latest sign yet that the global vaccination effort was falling way short of expectations, institutional traders are shunning gasoline futures in favor of other contracts. Forecasts that gasoline demand may be close to peaking are not helping either.

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Any comparison to March last year should be worrying, but it is especially worrying when it's about gasoline. The pandemic was expected to—and in some parts of the world, did—motivate greater use of personal transportation at the expense of alternatives. That use would lead to a rebound in gasoline demand. This did happen in India, but it is not happening, at least not fast enough, in Europe and the United States.

Continued movement restrictions are certainly one reason for this trend. Another may be the Energy Information Administration's recent Annual Energy Outlook, which suggested gasoline demand is two years away from its peak. Gasoline will continue to rule the transportation sector, the EIA said, but fuel efficiency gains will offset any increase in consumption as traveling recovers from the pandemic, and peak demand could come as soon as 2022.

Right now, U.S. gasoline demand is at the lowest for this time of the year in at least a century,
at 7.8 million bpd, according to Bloomberg. That's the four-week average for the fuel that clearly shows the pandemic's continuing effect on fuel demand. Even with a vaccination rate of more than a million people daily, the return to normal will take a while, and so will gasoline demand recovery.


Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4054 on: February 10, 2021, 09:28:20 PM »
Big finance increasingly believes that big oil is a dead industry walking.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Morgan-Stanley-Gasoline-Industry-Is-About-to-Become-Totally-Worthless.html

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Morgan Stanley: Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless
By Alex Kimani - Feb 09, 2021

The average energy investor is by now well aware of the sector's monumental shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Coal-powered power plants have been shuttering at an alarming clip as the price of electricity from natural gas and renewables undercuts them while wind and solar generation continue to gain the ascendancy.

But nowhere has this change been as dramatic as the transport industry, with EV titans such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and NIO Ltd. (NYSE:NIO) now commanding substantially higher valuations than their imposing ICE brethren, General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motors (NYSE:F). Indeed, the global EV sector now carries a higher valuation than the global ICE sector despite accounting for less than 3% of new vehicle sales in 2020.

It's a situation eerily reminiscent of the thousands of buggy and whip companies that were rendered obsolete in the early 20th century.

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Morgan Stanley has argued that traditional ICE makers are destined to become money-losers as early as 2030.

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Morgan Stanley is hardly alone in its very dim outlook of the traditional auto industry.

A recent survey on institutional investors by the investment firm has revealed that 17% of respondents think ICE technology has no zero or negative value today, while 60% have rated ICE technology as only slightly positive. Just 23% think gasoline and diesel tech still carries a significant positive value.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4055 on: February 11, 2021, 01:53:14 AM »
CHEVRON OIL SPILL: State emergency officials say a pipeline containing a mixture of oil and gasoline is leaking 5 gallons a minute into the San Francisco Bay. #oilspill

https://abc7news.com/chevron-oil-spill-richmond-refinery-sf-bay-in-san-francisco/10324620

Leak was stopped after "close to 600 gallons" flowed into the Bay.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4056 on: February 11, 2021, 03:02:21 PM »
—- EU Carbon emission futures

Carbon trading above 40 euros for the first time meaning it's never been so expensive to pollute in Europe.

“Carbon emission futures cleared yet another milestone in Europe, climbing above 40 euros ($49) a metric ton for the first time and making it one of the year’s best performing commodities” — Bloomberg

“Last week Bloomberg News reported that a number of hedge funds are betting carbon will rise much faster, to as high as 100 euros this year or next. That helped set off a 16% gain last week” — Bloomberg

Article:  https://t.co/HjXXVIeKJR
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4057 on: February 11, 2021, 06:31:13 PM »
Express Elevator to Hell, Going Down: Shell Unveils Green Strategy After Oil Output Peak
https://techxplore.com/news/2021-02-shell-unveils-green-strategy-oil.html

Energy giant Royal Dutch Shell declared Thursday that its oil output is locked in decline after peaking in 2019 as it outlined green plans to switch away from fossil fuels.

Shell said in a statement that it will invest up to $6.0 billion (4.9 billion euros) per year in green energy projects developing and promoting biofuels, electric car charging and renewables.

More than half the amount could end up being spent on marketing, Shell said.

In addition, Shell plans to still invest $8 billion annually on new oil and gas exploration.

The London-listed company nevertheless said that it anticipates a "gradual reduction" in oil output of 1.0-2.0 percent each year, including divestments.

Total carbon emissions for the company peaked in 2018, it added.

Shell is matching a commitment by rival BP as the Anglo-Dutch group's update sparked more accusations of corporate "green washing" from environmental campaigners.

"Shell... brazenly says it will dodge oil production cuts and will simply let output dwindle," noted Mel Evans, head of Greenpeace UK's oil campaign.

"Without commitments to reduce absolute emissions by making actual oil production cuts, this new strategy cannot succeed nor can it be taken seriously."

... Shell dived into a net loss of $21.7 billion (18.1 billion euros) last year as factories shut and planes were grounded.

The loss compared with a net profit of $15.8 billion in 2019.

Shell is axing up to 9,000 jobs in a cost-cutting drive to combat the turmoil, which is mirrored elsewhere in the sector.

British rival BP, which is cutting around 10,000 positions, reported a 2020 net loss of $20.3 billion.

US giant Exxon Mobil suffered an annual loss of $22.4 billion. ... however, it's easier to blame Biden rather than own their mismanagement

Oil and gas producing nations face up to nine trillion dollars in lost income as the world accelerates the transition to renewables, according to research published Thursday by the Carbon Tracker industry watchdog.

https://carbontracker.org/petrostates-13-trillion-gap-energy-transition-pr/
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4058 on: February 12, 2021, 07:38:04 PM »
While Sinopec, Aramco, Rosneft are stuck in the past, private oil companies are quickly diversifying to become energy companies.

Given how quickly EVs are taking market share, the State owned oil companies may regret their investment decisions.
China can absorb SINOPEC gouing bust.
If / when Aramco & Rosneft and the other State-owned oil cos. go bust, the chances are Saudi Arabia, The Russian Federation and good few other oil States will go bust too.

It would not be wise to assume that will make the world a safer or better place, at least not for  for some considerable time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56017415
Shift to green energy 'could cost oil states $13 trillion' by 2040
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A new report says that oil and gas producing countries face a multi-trillion-dollar hole in their government revenue. The report from the think-tank Carbon Tracker looks at the financial impact as the world cuts back on fossil fuels.

It says some countries could lose at least 40% of total government revenue.

It estimates the cumulative total revenue loss for all oil-producing countries by 2040 will be $13 trillion (in 2020 dollars). That is as efforts to contain the rise in global temperatures drive the decarbonisation of energy supplies.

Carbon Tracker describes its report as a wake-up call to oil producing countries and international policymakers. It says they have planned on the basis that demand for oil will increase until 2040.

The report looks at what would happen to government revenues if the increase in global temperature is limited to 1.65C.

The $13 trillion figure for lost revenue is compared with what it calls "business as usual" expectations of continued growth. It includes countries whose economies are not dominated by oil - such as the UK, the US, India and China.

The main focus of the report, however, is a group for which the loss of oil income will be much more challenging, 40 countries it calls "petrostates".

The predicted damage to government finances in these nations is stark; an average loss of 46% of oil and gas revenue.

The dependence on oil and gas revenue is very marked for some countries - more than 80% for Iraq and Equatorial Guinea. For another seven including Saudi Arabia the figure is more than 60%.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4059 on: February 12, 2021, 08:12:49 PM »
While it is certainly important to recognize what damage this 13 trillion dollar hole does to some countries. It is important to recognize some of the savings will make to consumers and more of the money will circulate more locally to the consumer. As with any other creative destruction their will be more benefit to spread around than loss. Hopefully as little as possible will concentrate in the hands of a few.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4060 on: February 12, 2021, 10:05:20 PM »
While it is certainly important to recognize what damage this 13 trillion dollar hole does to some countries. It is important to recognize some of the savings will make to consumers and more of the money will circulate more locally to the consumer. As with any other creative destruction their will be more benefit to spread around than loss. Hopefully as little as possible will concentrate in the hands of a few.
I am talking social unrest, potentially spiralling into civil wars in some petro-States.
Wars can start over resource shortages - e.g. clean freshwater.
Wars could start over resource surpluses, e.g. oil. You create a false shortage of supply by shutting down your neighbour's supply capacity.
Regimes, especially dictatorships** will go to the extreme to keep themselves in power.

And this could happen well before 2040 if the renewable energy / EV transition gets on track this decade.

____________________________________
** & the Republican Party
« Last Edit: February 12, 2021, 10:15:03 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4061 on: February 12, 2021, 10:12:41 PM »
Hopefully some of these countries will find ways to employ out of work oil and gas workers by having them drill geothermal wells and plug abandoned and leaky oil and gas wells.

In the US, the oil and gas companies that were enjoying lax environmental oversight by the Trump administration as they allowed their leaky infrastructure to spew greenhouse gases are starting to pay the consequences for their lack of action.

https://www.ft.com/content/60659338-8d39-4087-af6a-9ddbd963dc4c

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How Biden should meet his promise to cut fossil fuel emissions
Full power of US Clean Air Act must be used to cut oil and gas sector’s methane output
Lauren Pagel

February 8 2021

As US president Joe Biden looks to fulfil his commitments to address the oil and gas industry’s climate pollution, cutting the sector’s methane emissions must become a key pillar of his strategy.

Quote
With comprehensive climate legislation unlikely to pass a divided Senate, President Biden’s best and most reliable option is to use the full power of the Clean Air Act to require the oil and gas industry to cut emissions through a detailed plan drafted by the Clean Air Task Force.

Government intervention is necessary because, despite the economic downturn’s impact on oil and gas demand, recent research from the Environmental Integrity Project forecasts that US oil and gas greenhouse gas emissions will increase more than a third over the next five years. And that may be a lowball figure as it relies on Environmental Protection Agency data that is based on industry self-reports, and only for its largest facilities.

It is clear, however, that the oil and gas sector’s concerns over methane emissions have reached a breaking point. This autumn, France’s Engie backed out of a reported $7bn, 20-year contract to import US liquefied natural gas due to concerns about methane emissions associated with the product. In January, French oil group Total renounced its membership of the American Petroleum Institute, the lobbying arm of US oil and gas operators, over its climate policy. Immediately thereafter, API begrudgingly provided a qualified endorsement of methane safeguards.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4062 on: February 12, 2021, 10:22:58 PM »
While it is certainly important to recognize what damage this 13 trillion dollar hole does to some countries. It is important to recognize some of the savings will make to consumers and more of the money will circulate more locally to the consumer. As with any other creative destruction their will be more benefit to spread around than loss. Hopefully as little as possible will concentrate in the hands of a few.
I am talking social unrest, potentially spiralling into civil wars in some petro-States.
Wars can start over resource shortages - e.g. clean freshwater.
Wars could start over resource surpluses, e.g. oil. You create a false shortage of supply by shutting down your neighbour's supply capacity.
Regimes, especially dictatorships** will go to the extreme to keep themselves in power.

And this could happen well before 2040 if the renewable energy / EV transition gets on track this decade.

____________________________________
** & the Republican Party

I found an article by Emily Meierding, who is an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. Her book, The Oil Wars Myth: Petroleum and the Causes of International Conflict.

It is very much about the consequences of covid but seems to me valid when looking at a long-term reduction in oil demand. Revenue = quantity x price. if both fall?

Some quotes from https://duckofminerva.com/2020/04/the-oil-price-crash-and-international-petro-politics.html

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Russia needs $42 per barrel to balance its budget, Saudi Arabia needs $84, and Iran needs $195. States that are heavily dependent on oil revenue and lack substantial financial reserves will need to dramatically cut their spending or borrow heavily to maintain their fiscal balances. Both of these strategies could produce or aggravate social instability.

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states have never fought wars to grab oil resources.

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However, low oil prices could affect the frequency of international conflict in two other ways.
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First, low oil prices could make oil-producing countries less aggressive. As their resource revenue falls, oil producers may decide that they can’t afford international aggression. Cullen Hendrix has found that, when oil prices are low, producers initiate fewer international conflicts. During the current oil price collapse, Saudi Arabia has already declared a ceasefire in its war in Yemen.

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The second dynamic pushes in the opposite direction. Low oil prices could make some oil-producing countries more aggressive. Falling resource revenue will cause or exacerbate economic crises in many oil-producing states. To divert popular attention from these crises and generate rally-round-the-flag effects, beleaguered state leaders may decide to attack their neighbors. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro employed this strategy after oil prices dropped in 2014–15, reasserting his state’s claims to Guyanese territory as Venezuela’s economic crisis deepened.

Other oil producers with easily accessible rivals could do the same. Iran could again attack Saudi Arabia, the Saudis could intensify their feud with Qatar, Azerbaijan could target Armenia, Nigeria could reactivate its territorial dispute with Cameroon, Algeria could pick a fight with Morocco, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon could reenergize their disagreement over contested islands, or Russia could attack any number of its neighbors.
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Budgetary constraints should limit the scope of oil producers’ international aggression. However, as economic crises intensify, the potential for larger domestic or international ruptures will increase. And then, the oil price collapse could get ugly.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4063 on: February 12, 2021, 10:37:30 PM »
Quote
states have never fought wars to grab oil resources.


????????

Japan's attack on the US in WWII was intended to disable the US fleet's ability to prevent Japan's moves into southeast Asia to grab the oil fields there.  The US had put a boycott on oil imports to Japan due to Japan's invasions of Manchuria and China in the 1930s.  Japan was down to less than a year of oil supply and needed to secure the oilfields, mainly in Indonesia, before they ran out of oil.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4064 on: February 12, 2021, 10:40:04 PM »
Quote
states have never fought wars to grab oil resources.

More recently, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait to grab the oil fields on their border lead to the larger Gulf War, the aftermath of which is still with us to this day.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4065 on: February 13, 2021, 01:25:52 AM »
Sinopec is forecasting that China will reach peak oil demand in 2025 due to the growth of the EV market share.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Is-China-Headed-To-Peak-Oil-Demand.html

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Is China Headed To Peak Oil Demand?
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 12, 2021

The world's top oil importer, China, could be just years away from its own peak in domestic demand for oil products, Chinese refiners have started to warn, but consumer preferences and government policies about transport electrification and support for EVs are likely to determine whether Chinese domestic oil consumption will peak around 2025.

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According to the research institute, gasoline demand in China will likely peak in 2025, while demand for diesel could peak as soon as this year.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4066 on: February 13, 2021, 04:54:45 AM »
If we unwind all oil demand as quickly as possible it could be more of a problem. First we are really only talking about oil used for fuel at the moment. Second high speed conversion will be about fifteen years from when practically all new vehicles are electric. It will cause disruptions to be sure but a great many other factors will play roles as well. The values stated the countries "need" are based on the current budget. Actually those are the numbers estimated during the Saudi-Russia price War so they may be out of date or nearly so already. Saudis are building a wealth fund which represents a large portion of their budget. Saudis pay have one of the lowest extraction costs at around 10 dollars a barrel and have added much down the value stream of oil. Plastics, fine chemicals etc.
Russia is a bit more diversified and continues to push that. Those most dependent on oil revenue are looking for ways and making efforts to reduce their dependence. It could still blow up but I do not think it is as inevitable as some make it seem.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4067 on: February 13, 2021, 06:57:10 PM »
Quote
states have never fought wars to grab oil resources.

????????

Japan's attack on the US in WWII was intended to disable the US fleet's ability to prevent Japan's moves into southeast Asia to grab the oil fields there.  The US had put a boycott on oil imports to Japan due to Japan's invasions of Manchuria and China in the 1930s.  Japan was down to less than a year of oil supply and needed to secure the oilfields, mainly in Indonesia, before they ran out of oil.
Once you start a war you prioritise your campaigns partly to ensure you can improve your war capability.

Japan went to war with the USA as a continuation of the belief they were destined to control a vast Asian Empire. They also believed that Germany would defeat the UK and the USA miltary capability was small - true at the time. Hence their long-term occupation of Korea and much of China. I did quite a bit of research in this as when I was in China doing Government contracts talking about it opened up the Chinese to the work I was doing.

Quote
states have never fought wars to grab oil resources.

More recently, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait to grab the oil fields on their border lead to the larger Gulf War, the aftermath of which is still with us to this day.
Iraq has always regarded Kuwait as a Governorate of Iraq. It was part of the Basra Province under the Ottoman Empire. You can blame Britain who drew the boundaries after the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of WW1 to limit Iraq's access to the Ocean.

Iraq was also bankrupt at the end of the Iran / Iraq war in 1988 (The US partly to blame for that terrible war).

So Saddam Hussein (the mad dictator) did the war as a mechanism to bolster his support at home. That Kuwait was awash with oil obviously helped, but Iraq has enormous reserves of oil.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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etienne

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4068 on: February 13, 2021, 09:25:29 PM »
Quote
states have never fought wars to grab oil resources.

More recently, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait to grab the oil fields on their border lead to the larger Gulf War, the aftermath of which is still with us to this day.

Corruption works better.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4069 on: February 13, 2021, 09:36:22 PM »
If we unwind all oil demand as quickly as possible it could be more of a problem. First we are really only talking about oil used for fuel at the moment. Second high speed conversion will be about fifteen years from when practically all new vehicles are electric. It will cause disruptions to be sure but a great many other factors will play roles as well. The values stated the countries "need" are based on the current budget. Actually those are the numbers estimated during the Saudi-Russia price War so they may be out of date or nearly so already. Saudis are building a wealth fund which represents a large portion of their budget. Saudis pay have one of the lowest extraction costs at around 10 dollars a barrel and have added much down the value stream of oil. Plastics, fine chemicals etc.
Russia is a bit more diversified and continues to push that. Those most dependent on oil revenue are looking for ways and making efforts to reduce their dependence. It could still blow up but I do not think it is as inevitable as some make it seem.
Most petroleum states have a very important renewable potential. What about solar in Saudi Arabia, about wind and hydro in Russia. If we want to go to a zero CO2 economy, we all need to make an effort. You talk like if it would be no effort for the industrial countries. An EV is more expensive than an ICEV, and if all people have to get one, the lower salaries will have to go up, which will mean less incomes for the management. Insulated houses are more expensive, so this will also mean less incomes for the landlords. Miracles require a lot of sweat to happen.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4070 on: February 14, 2021, 05:27:47 AM »
If we unwind all oil demand as quickly as possible it could be more of a problem. First we are really only talking about oil used for fuel at the moment. Second high speed conversion will be about fifteen years from when practically all new vehicles are electric. It will cause disruptions to be sure but a great many other factors will play roles as well. The values stated the countries "need" are based on the current budget. Actually those are the numbers estimated during the Saudi-Russia price War so they may be out of date or nearly so already. Saudis are building a wealth fund which represents a large portion of their budget. Saudis pay have one of the lowest extraction costs at around 10 dollars a barrel and have added much down the value stream of oil. Plastics, fine chemicals etc.
Russia is a bit more diversified and continues to push that. Those most dependent on oil revenue are looking for ways and making efforts to reduce their dependence. It could still blow up but I do not think it is as inevitable as some make it seem.
Most petroleum states have a very important renewable potential. What about solar in Saudi Arabia, about wind and hydro in Russia. If we want to go to a zero CO2 economy, we all need to make an effort. You talk like if it would be no effort for the industrial countries. An EV is more expensive than an ICEV, and if all people have to get one, the lower salaries will have to go up, which will mean less incomes for the management. Insulated houses are more expensive, so this will also mean less incomes for the landlords. Miracles require a lot of sweat to happen.
I think you changed the question. I was trying to address the notion that the loss of oil revenue will automatically lead to war. My argument is 1. transportation is not the only use of oil, 2. This transistion away from oil for fuel will take some time greater than 20 years at best. 3. National budgets can change the stated needed amounts are not as rigid as implied. 4. Saudi Arabia and Russia are working to be less dependant on oil. 

To address your comments I agree Their is much work yet to be done by everyone. While that is the case the incentives (cheaper economics for renewables even with little to no support) and technology are ready to deploy (and appropriately priced) for the initial changes to happen quickly. Solar is cheaper than anything else. Wind is second. Batteries in the 100's of megawatts have been built deployed tested and proven profitable. Gigawatt scale batteries will start construction soon. Fossil fuel plants are more expensive than renewable energy. Utilities recognize that renewable energy is cheaper and more desirable. A month or three ago Chinese bus manufacture crossed the 100$/kwh threshold at the pack level which makes EV's as cheap as fossil fuel vehicles. I expect the average will cross that barrier soon. Maybe this year maybe next. A $25k ev with 250 mile range was announced for 2023 in the US. Some part suppliers are leaking information that it may happen sooner. Thing are lining up for these changes to happen quickly. Most of the US multi billionares are pushing to mitigate co2 emission with their companies and significant prizes for solutions to some of the remaining issues. BP said it has already passed peak oil. Oil companies are constantly commenting on how much harder it is to raise capitol.  The notion that infrastructure built today will not pay for itself is slowing things down. Just two or three years ago the oil industry looked nearly invulnerable. Now most projections are peak oil consumption is less than ten years away. A year ago that was shocking now many think it will happen sooner.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4071 on: February 14, 2021, 09:24:06 PM »
U.S.
Judge rules EV owner can keep his 'FKGAS' vanity plate, finds state law unconstitutional
https://amp.providencejournal.com/amp/6738720002
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4072 on: February 16, 2021, 09:57:12 AM »
Biggest Oil Refineries in U.S. Are Going Dark Amid the Cold
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/biggest-u-s-oil-refinery-shutting-down-because-of-cold-weather

The largest refineries in North America were shutting down Monday because of arctic conditions that have cut electricity, water and fuel supplies across Texas. More than 3 million barrels of daily oil-processing capacity has been idled in the wake of the record-setting cold, according to consultant Energy Aspects Ltd.

The shutdowns portend tightening supplies and higher prices for everything from gasoline to propane in coming days and weeks in cities across the country that rely on the U.S. Gulf Coast for fuels. The impact on fuel supplied by pipeline will likely spread far beyond Texas if the outages last more than a few days, considering that the oil industry had already cut back production during the pandemic. The Gulf Coast supplies more than three-fifths of the East Coast’s fuel.

- Saudi Aramco’s Motiva Enterprises LLC is halting operations at its Port Arthur, Texas, refinery, the nation’s largest, according to an email from the company.

- Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s Galveston Bay plant south of Houston was shut in response to the chill, Reuters reported.

- Exxon Mobil Corp. shut its massive Baytown refinery near Houston, as well as some units at its refinery in the town of Beaumont about 70 miles (112 kilometers) to the east, spokeswoman Sarah Nordin said. In addition to the cold, the Beaumont closure was also driven by a shortage of natural gas.

- Total SE ratcheted down crude processing to minimal levels and shut a key refining unit at its Port Arthur, Texas, plant, a person familiar with operations said. The refinery probably will shut completely within hours as temperatures drop, the person said.

Oil pipelines, electricity generators and wind farms have been paralyzed by the extreme weather conditions in the nation’s top crude-producing state. Refinery capacity is shrinking at a faster pace than oil production is declining due to the arctic weather, according to Energy Aspects.

“Disruptions to refining operations could be prolonged if the cold damages any equipment or if the power outages affecting Texas are not resolved quickly,” the consultant said in a note to clients.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4073 on: February 21, 2021, 07:20:01 PM »
Gas Traders Pleaded for Cash as Texas Cold Upended Their Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/gas-traders-pleaded-for-cash-as-texas-cold-upended-their-market

The winter storm boosted demand, slashed production and sent prices haywire in a way that even veteran traders had never seen before.

The urgent phone calls came over the holiday weekend: traders of natural gas needed more money, and fast.

Temperatures were starting to plummet across the central U.S. Prices for the heating fuel had skyrocketed 300-fold to levels nobody had thought possible. This would later prove to be the precursor of one of the worst energy crises the nation had seen, plunging millions into darkness for days amid a deadly deep freeze.

But on Saturday, traders in the relatively small and obscure world that is the physical gas market were singularly focused on one very big problem: exchanges were demanding more collateral because of the volatility. The traders had until Tuesday to come up with the cash or else they’d be forced to exit their positions and, in some cases, face potentially catastrophic losses.

The dire situation triggered a frenzy of round-the-clock meetings. One group of traders convened their first Saturday morning conference call since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The public holiday on Monday meant U.S. banks were closed, so -- desperate for money -- some market players turned to European parent companies that could deliver so-called margin payments on their behalf to the exchanges sooner. The cash showed up in different currencies, but it did the trick.

“I’ve been through a lot: The ‘98 and ‘99 power spikes in the Midwest, the California crisis” of 2000-2001, said Cody Moore, head of gas and power trading at Mercuria Energy America. “Nothing was as broadly shocking as this week.” One gas trader said in a message over the weekend his head was “still spinning.” Brian Lavertu, a trader in Texas’ power market, predicted prices were about to go “wild.”

That turned out to be an understatement. In what will go down as one of the most remarkable weeks in power and gas market history, gas soared as high as $1,250 per mmBtu in some locations, electricity in Texas surged to its $9,000-per-megawatt-hour price cap and the state’s grid operator ordered the country’s biggest-ever forced blackout as the cold pushed its system to the brink of total collapse. Winners will emerge -- like Jerry Jones, the billionaire owner of the Dallas Cowboys, whose gas company sold some fuel for high premiums. There will most undoubtedly be losers. And the markets may never be the same.

Spot prices at the Oneok delivery hub in Oklahoma, for example, which had mostly been trading at a small but steady discount to Nymex, moved sharply higher on Wednesday, Feb. 10, to settle at $9. On Thursday they hit $60. By Friday, they briefly surpassed $500, a level previously undreamed of.

Physical gas sales contracts can require the buyer or seller to pledge collateral, such as a letter of credit, a kind of insurance in case bets go awry or if a company has a liquidity issue. Price gains typically mean more collateral, or margin, is needed.

But the spot gas price spikes now being seen were triggering truly outsized demands: According to one trader, a small market participant with a margin requirement of $100,000 saw that balloon to $1 million. Larger companies had to find tens of millions of dollars. Many spot gas trades are conducted via next-day contracts on Intercontinental Exchange Inc., which boosted its margin requirements.

After the market closed Friday, stunned traders scrambled to work out how much additional funds they would need to set aside for the following week. Some trading houses were extremely nervous. An executive at one said he was worried that some counterparties could go bust and leave his firm with positions to fill on the spot market.

Meanwhile key pieces of Texas’ energy infrastructure began to fail. Oil and gas wells stopped producing as liquids froze in pipes. By the night of Sunday, Feb. 14, it was apparent that Ercot, which oversees Texas’ power grid, might have to implement rolling blackouts.

Some traders looking to raise more collateral urgently tapped credit lines, while lenders sprang into action. One bank was able to extend credit facilities by $500 million and have them in place when the markets reopened, according to a person working there. Other lenders also took similar action, according to other people with knowledge of the situation. “Nobody wanted to trade a liquidity event, so they stepped up,” one banker said.

By the morning of Tuesday last week, Texas was plunged into an unprecedented energy crisis, with Ercot unable to restore most of the grid. As markets reopened, some traders liquidated their positions, unable to post the additional margin.

“If you want to play, you’ve got to pay,” said John Kilduff, trader and founding partner at Again Capital. “It’s a mechanism to wring out excessive speculation.”

For those still in the game, the wild ride continued. By Wednesday, spot prices had surged at Henry Hub in Louisiana, the delivery benchmark for Nymex futures, while rates at Oneok touched $1,250.

Working from home, Phillips and his co-workers at Uplift saw orders filled in the Western Rockies at prices as high as $350. “I thought maybe the highest we could get was $20 this week, to be honest,” he said.

... Some of Uplift’s clients were doing everything they could to keep the gas flowing at this point amid the frigid temperatures, using space blankets and portable heaters to stop pipes from freezing. “Some of our producer clients felt morally obligated that the gas was flowing,” Phillips said.

In Oklahoma, Chris Bird’s company Exponent Energy, was using similarly improvised measures, including a propane gas torch, to keep its gas wells from freezing. In just five days, Exponent’s wells in Osage County raked in about $3 million of revenue, compared with around $800,000 for the whole of last year.

As awareness grew of the sky-high cost of gas, outrage grew, even within the gas market. Some observers questioned why fuel was still flowing to liquefied natural gas export terminals when power was still down for millions of Texans.

“What is happening is a disgusting price-gouging that we have not seen since the California energy crisis,” said John Woods, an independent trader, referring to the spot prices. “Texas should ban the export of fuel.”

By late afternoon Wednesday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced during a televised address that he had stopped the shipment of gas from the state.

That created a fresh wave of panic in the market. Traders frantically sought clarification on how the order would be enforced. One trader on the West Coast who had been working around the clock lost $1 million within minutes, having earlier bought a gas swap priced at $20 -- essentially betting on continued supply constraints in Texas -- only to see the price fall to $12 immediately after news of Abbott’s order broke.

... While gas prices are almost back to where they started, the full repercussions of the wild ride will likely take a while to emerge. The hasty curbs on Texan exports may jeopardize the perception of how reliable U.S. LNG supplies could be in the future, said Katie Bays, managing director at FiscalNote Markets. Some financial losses in the U.S. market may only emerge toward the end of March, when billing comes due for February. Serious financial damage may end up raising the barriers for entry to the market, which in turn could reduce the amount of competition, said Kilduff at Again Capital.

“We’ll have to see what kind of defaults come to the surface,” he said. “That will dictate who can stay in.”

----------------------------------------------

... Hell; at $1,250 per mmBtu; strap one of these on Ol' Betsy and you got yourself a 'cash cow' ...

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4074 on: February 22, 2021, 04:41:01 PM »
Or give up on the idea that self regulation is a good idea and winterproof the grid and connect it to the the rest of the US.
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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4075 on: February 22, 2021, 10:01:50 PM »
EU spent €440 million on failed gas projects since 2013, study finds

In less than a decade, the European Union has spent €440 million on gas pipelines that have either never been completed or are likely to fail, according to new research published on Monday (22 February).

In total, nearly €5 billion in EU taxpayer money was spent since 2013 on 41 gas projects such as pipelines or import terminals known as “Projects of Common Interest” (PCIs), according to the study by Global Witness, an international NGO.

Of that, an estimated €440 million was splashed on seven gas projects that have either failed or have been put on hold, says Global Witness.

The vast majority of that sum – over €430 million – was spent on the BRUA pipeline, aimed at connecting Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria to gas reserves in the Black Sea.

Research for offshore gas in the Black Sea economic zone of Bulgaria and Romania has been a hot topic in the past, but in the case of Bulgaria, work is at a complete standstill.

Designed to ease Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, BRUA aims to carry 1.75 billion cubic metres of gas in its first phase, which cost an estimated €479 million.

A section of the pipeline was completed in November 2020, but it is located entirely in Romania and reaches neither the Black Sea nor the country’s neighbours.

Investors are now worried that BRUA will not transport gas from the Black Sea, after Exxon – which had been leading the largest portion of the project – announced it wanted to sell its license.

Plans to extend BRUA into Hungary were cancelled in April last year, and it is unlikely the pipe will now transport gas from the Black Sea – falling short of the project’s initial ambition when the EU labelled it as a project of common interest.

The other six projects are:

The Portugal-Spain 3rd gas interconnection (cancelled). EU subsidy: €97,359
The Midcat gas pipeline connecting France and Spain (cancelled). EU subsidy: €6,253,708
The Poland-Czech Republic gas interconnection (shelved). EU subsidy: 1,360,868
The Pince-Lendava-Kidričevo gas pipeline (no activity since receiving EU funding in 2014). EU subsidy: €344,500
The Austria-Czech Republic gas interconnector (halted). EU subsidy: €41,993
The Eastring gas project linking Slovakia to the Bulgarian-Turkish border via Romania and Hungary (indefinitely postponed). EU subsidy: €438,527
Project selection under scrutiny

Global Witness is now warning Europe against repeating the same mistakes when selecting the next batch of projects under the EU’s updated regulation on trans-European networks for energy (TEN-E).

etc:
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/02/22/eu-spent-e440-million-failed-gas-projects-since-2013-study-finds/

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kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4076 on: February 22, 2021, 10:03:43 PM »
Fossil fuels may still contribute to air pollution even when the car is turned off

Long-chain alkanes, key chemical components of fossil fuels such as gasoline, contribute to urban air pollution even if they are not combusted, reports a study published in Communications Chemistry.

In combustion processes, such as in car engines, a chain reaction called autoxidation occurs at high temperatures. Recently, autoxidation was identified as an important source for highly oxygenated chemicals in the atmosphere, which result in organic aerosol air pollution. Conventional chemical knowledge suggests that for an autoxidation reaction to occur at atmospheric, low-temperature conditions, suitable structural features like carbon–carbon double bonds or oxygen-containing groups have to be present in the chemicals. Having neither of these features, alkanes, the primary fuel type in combustion engines and an important class of urban trace gases, were thought to have minor susceptibility to autoxidation.

Zhandong Wang and colleagues used recently developed, highly sensitive mass spectrometry to measure both radicals and oxidation products of alkanes. They found that the studied C6–C10 alkanes undergo autoxidation much more efficiently than previously thought, both under combustion and atmospheric conditions. Even at high concentrations of NOX, which typically rapidly terminate autoxidation reactions in urban areas, these alkanes produce considerable amounts of highly oxygenated products that can contribute to urban organic aerosol pollution.

https://phys.org/news/2021-02-fossil-fuels-contribute-air-pollution.html
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4077 on: February 23, 2021, 08:35:07 PM »
US oil production dropped with the deep freeze over the past couple of weeks.  Some of the lower producing wells wont be brought back online.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Hard-Did-The-Texas-Freeze-Hit-US-Shale-Production.html

Quote
How Hard Did The Texas Freeze Hit U.S. Shale Production?
By Charles Kennedy - Feb 23, 2021

U.S. shale oil production in the first quarter will be lower than previously expected because of the sub-zero temperatures and snowstorms that put Texas in the spotlight last week and pushed oil prices higher.

Reuters cites several shale oil producers, including Occidental and Diamondback Energy, which expect a slow recovery in production as frozen pipelines and well equipment removed some 2 million bpd from the U.S. total.

What’s more, some of the lost production may never return because it would be too expensive to restart some smaller wells, analysts said. The wells that will be restarted will need about two weeks, according to the oil companies Reuters talked to.

Quote
The Texas Freeze knocked out as much as 4 million bpd of U.S. oil production and 6 million bpd of refining capacity last week, IHS Markit said. The production outages have created a tighter supply situation that has been absent for most of the pandemic, boosting prices.

Yet even before the Freeze, OPEC and U.S. oil industry insiders expected shale production to be slow to rebound from the pandemic lows as companies remain cautious with their spending plans.

gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4078 on: February 25, 2021, 06:11:50 PM »
EXXON forced to reduce stated reserves. Another nail in the coffin for that muck from Canada - but only down, not out.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/2/25/exxon-takes-canadian-oil-sands-off-its-books-in-historic-reserves-revision

Exxon takes Canadian oil sands off its books in historic reserves revision

HOUSTON (Bloomberg) --Exxon Mobil erased almost every drop of oil-sands crude from its books in a sweeping revision of worldwide reserves to depths never before seen in the company’s modern history.

Exxon counted the equivalent of 15.2 billion barrels of reserves as of Dec. 31, down from 22.44 billion a year earlier, according to a regulatory filing on Wednesday. The company’s reserves of the dense, heavy crude extracted from Western Canada’s sandy bogs dropped by 98%.

In practical terms, the revision clipped Exxon’s future growth prospects until oil prices rise, costs slide or technological advances make it profitable to drill those fields. Exxon has enough reserves to sustain current production levels for 11 years, down from 15.5 years a year ago, based on Bloomberg calculations.

The pandemic-driven price crash that rocked global energy markets was the main driver of Exxon’s reserve downgrade, along with internal budget cuts that took out a significant portion of its U.S. shale assets. The oil sands have historically been among the company’s higher-cost operations, making them more vulnerable to removal when oil prices foundered.

Price Sensitive


The reserves accounting doesn’t mean Exxon is closing up shop or walking away from Canada because the company can bring them back onto its ledger as crude prices rise.

Among the factors that could result in portions of these amounts being recognized again as proved reserves at some point in the future are a recovery in the SEC price basis, cost reductions, operating efficiencies, and increases in planned capital spending,” Exxon said in the filing.

The blow to future production potential comes just weeks after Exxon posted its first annual loss in at least four decades. Exxon shares were little changed at $56.85 in after-hours trading and have advanced 38% this year.

The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Exxon was being investigated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly overvaluing a key asset in the Permian Basin. Exxon has said the allegations are demonstrably false.

CEO’s Priorities

Exxon previously flagged that low prices could wipe as much as one-fifth of its oil and gas reserves from its books but steep cuts in drilling expenditures also imperil the assets its able to keep on the books.

Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods has prioritized high-return projects such as offshore oil in Guyana, shale in the Permian Basin as well as chemical and gas operations along the Gulf Coast in order to defend the company’s dividend. This year’s rally in oil prices will help bolster Exxon’s cash generation, which in recent quarters has failed to cover both its capital spending and dividend, leading to an increase in debt to almost $70 billion.
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4079 on: February 26, 2021, 10:05:08 PM »
The US oil rig count is still slowly increasing and now is only 388 fewer than last year.  Production has dropped from recent levels (around 11 million bpd) to 9.7 million bpd, mostly due to the Texas freeze.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Rig-Count-Inches-Higher-As-Prices-Drop.html

Quote
Oil Rig Count Inches Higher As Prices Drop
By Julianne Geiger - Feb 26, 2021

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the United States rose by 5 this week. The total number of active oil and gas rigs in the U.S. is now at 402—or 388 fewer than this time last year.

The oil rig count increased by 4 this week, and the number of gas rigs increased by 1. The number of miscellaneous rigs remained unchanged.

The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States for the week ending February 19 fell sharply by 1.1 million bpd to 9.7 million barrels. It is the lowest production level in the United States since August 2020.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4080 on: February 26, 2021, 10:08:13 PM »
While the oil and gas industry point their fingers at frozen windmills, it turns out that gas production was down by 45% due to the freezing conditions in Texas.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Production-Plunged-45-During-The-Texas-Freeze.html

Quote
Natural Gas Production Plunged 45% During The Texas Freeze
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 25, 2021

Natural gas production in Texas collapsed by 45 percent during the cold snap last week, primarily due to freeze-offs, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday, citing estimates from IHS Markit.

Quote
The temperatures in Texas averaged nearly 30 degrees Fahrenheit lower than normal during the week of February 14, which led to freeze-offs in the natural gas stream at the wellheads or gathering lines near production activities.

The infrastructure in Texas is more susceptible to extreme cold snaps, unlike the relatively winterized natural gas production infrastructure in the northern parts of the United States, the EIA said.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4081 on: February 27, 2021, 03:50:53 AM »
While the oil and gas industry point their fingers at frozen windmills, it turns out that gas production was down by 45% due to the freezing conditions in Texas.
As much as I do not like the oil industry this was a regulatory failure and had little to do with the types of energy involved. Mostly it is a good example of how politics likes to distort events to support their position.

kassy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4082 on: March 01, 2021, 08:35:06 PM »
The Surprising Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Changing the way emissions are tallied may help litigators focus on the worst climate offenders and shape mitigation.

A belching coal plant is easy to identify as a probable greenhouse gas polluter. Coal emissions are point source pollution—like a chemical spill in a stream, the pollution can be traced back to a specific activity at a precise place.

But is measuring the carbon produced at a power plant the best way to monitor emissions? A team of scientists recently took a different approach to estimating carbon dioxide: the bottleneck method. Instead of considering the pollution emitted only at the end use, burning phase of fossil fuel use, the researchers considered all phases: mining, transport, refining, and burning.

Their study identified the worst emissions offenders, and the results were surprising: oil and gas pipelines. The researchers noted that the companies enabling greenhouse gases emissions are most at risk of climate mitigation lawsuits.

Tallying Emissions
The new study, published in Energies, introduces the bottleneck method. “Most of the work that’s been done in this area in the past is looking at kind of end use because that’s where most of the emissions occur,” said Joshua Pearce, a materials and electrical engineering professor at Michigan Technological University and coauthor of the new study.

Using the bottleneck method, all emissions a facility enables are considered in carbon tallies, including extraction, transport, and end use. “Bottlenecks are the limiting factor for a total amount of emissions,” said Pearce.

“As more science provides unquestionable evidence that certain facilities are creating economic harm to others,” Pearce said, the bottleneck approach could identify the biggest offenders. It’s this carbon parsing that will likely become more important in climate mitigation efforts.

The researchers collected publicly available data for the amount of fuel and the emissions caused by those fuels from coal, oil, and natural gas. They also gathered emissions data from the entire life cycle of the fuel, including extraction, transport, and end use.

Natural Gas Pipelines

The bottleneck analysis showed that 9 of the top 10 carbon polluters were oil and gas pipelines (47% and 44%, respectively), while a coal mine took the remaining spot in the top rankings. In comparison, point source methods revealed that the top 10 polluters were oil pipelines (eight spots) and coal mines.
The top nine emitters were unexpected, said Pearce, adding he was especially surprised “that natural gas showed up at all.”

Pearce noted that natural gas has lower emissions per unit energy than coal, so it can seem like a good solution—a bridge fuel—for reducing carbon. “But our study showed that when you step away from point source emissions and go to the bottleneck, it turns out that natural gas pipelines are some of the worst offenders,” said Pearce. “They’re allowing the most carbon emissions.”

and more on:
https://eos.org/articles/the-surprising-source-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4083 on: March 02, 2021, 05:25:47 PM »
Quote
Pearce noted that natural gas has lower emissions per unit energy than coal, so it can seem like a good solution—a bridge fuel—for reducing carbon. “But our study showed that when you step away from point source emissions and go to the bottleneck, it turns out that natural gas pipelines are some of the worst offenders,” said Pearce. “They’re allowing the most carbon emissions.”

I am reminded of the “Natural Gas is a bridge to nowhere” memes from years ago.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4084 on: March 02, 2021, 08:37:46 PM »
Oil Trade Group Poised to Endorse Carbon Pricing
Quote
March 2, 2021 at 12:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard
Wall Street Journal: “The oil industry’s top lobbying group is preparing to endorse setting a price on carbon emissions in what would be the strongest signal yet that oil and gas producers are ready to accept government efforts to confront climate change.”
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Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4085 on: March 03, 2021, 09:04:14 PM »
OPEC is agreeing to keep production 7 million bpd lower than early 2020 through April.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Considers-Keeping-Oil-Cuts-Unchanged-Through-April.html

Quote
OPEC+ Considers Keeping Oil Cuts Unchanged Through April
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 03, 2021

The OPEC+ group is considering keeping their collective oil production cuts in April, given the still-fragile global demand recovery, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

OPEC and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia are keeping around 7 million barrels per day (bpd) off the market to help the market rebalance and prop up prices after the pandemic shock to demand. OPEC’s top producer and the world’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, is also additionally cutting 1 million bpd in February and March on top of its quota.

Even with these cuts and the US production being around 2 million barrels per day lower than the record levels of late 2019/early 2020, crude oil inventories continue to grow.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Falter-On-Colossal-Crude-Inventory-Build.html

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Oil Prices Falter On Colossal Crude Inventory Build
By Irina Slav - Mar 03, 2021

Crude oil prices dropped today after the Energy Information Administration reported what can only be described as a colossal crude oil inventory build of 21.6 million barrels for the week to February 26.

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4086 on: March 04, 2021, 10:48:31 PM »
Monitoring Methane Emissions from Gas Pipelines
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-methane-emissions-gas-pipelines.html



For the first time, scientists, using satellite data from the Copernicus Sentinel missions, are now able to detect individual methane plumes leaking from natural gas pipelines around the globe.

In 2020, Kayrros, a European technology start-up, successfully developed a tool to accurately detect individual methane emissions from space. Now, the platform is being used to track regular methane emissions along gas pipelines, for example in Siberia, with emission rates of up to 300 tons per hour recorded.

By combining data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P and Sentinel-2 missions, along with artificial intelligence algorithms, Kayrros scientists detected 13 methane emission events, with rates up to 164 tons per hour in 2019-2020, along the Yamal-Europe pipeline—a 4196 km pipeline running across Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany.

Another 33 emission events, with rates up to 291 tons per hour, were detected over the same period on the shorter, Brotherhood pipeline. When contacted, operators confirmed that these events were related to planned maintenance and have been duly reported to the relevant authorities.

Remarkably, the number of emission events detected by Kayrros increased by 40% over Russia in 2020 from 2019, even though the COVID-19 pandemic helped cut Russian gas exports to Europe by an estimated 14%, according to the IEA.

Over the same period, Kayrros also detected major methane releases in the US, from numerous emissions associated with shale oil production, as well as in other countries such as Kazakhstan.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4087 on: March 05, 2021, 02:11:31 PM »
Saudis Bet ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Over; Push for Pricier Oil
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-04/saudis-bet-drill-baby-drill-is-over-in-push-for-pricier-oil

Saudi Arabia just made a high-stakes wager that the glory days of U.S. shale, which transformed the global energy map in the last decade, are never coming back.

By keeping a tight grip on supply at Thursday’s meeting of the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman showed he’s focused on boosting prices -- and confident that this time around it won’t encourage American producers to surge back and steal market share.

“‘Drill, baby, drill’ is gone forever,” said Prince Abdulaziz, who’s orchestrated the revival of the oil market after last year’s catastrophic collapse.

... If the prince is right, OPEC+ will be able to both push prices higher now and recover market share later without worrying that rivals in Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota will flood the market. But if Riyadh has miscalculated -- and it’s got shale wrong before -- the danger will be lower prices and production down the line.

... “This is a risky take,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said Friday in a Bloomberg Television interview. While U.S. oil companies probably won’t raise output this year, in 2022 “there’s nothing really stopping them, especially the small and mid-cap producers.”

Sen sees prices hitting $70 a barrel as soon as next week, $80 by the end of the year and a possible climb to $100 in 2022.

... As the industry cuts spending to pay shareholders fatter dividends, there’s not much left to finance increased production. Even Big Oil is scaling down its ambitions in shale. Exxon Mobil Corp. had been running 55 oil rigs in the Permian basin that straddles West Texas and southeast New Mexico, part of an effort to boost output to 1 million barrels a day by 2025. After tightening its belt, the U.S. oil giant is running just 10 rigs, and has cut its 2025 output target by nearly a third to 700,000 barrels a day.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4088 on: March 05, 2021, 02:26:40 PM »
Monitoring Methane Emissions from Gas Pipelines
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-methane-emissions-gas-pipelines.html

If this techniques was used "for the first time" in 2020, how do they know that it "increased 40% in 2020 from 2019"?

« Last Edit: March 05, 2021, 03:16:06 PM by kassy »

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4089 on: March 05, 2021, 03:30:06 PM »
Well how would that work?

1) The thing that was build in 2020 was the tool. I bet they had been working on the deeper parts before that possible with then current data.
2) If the process works for 2020 you can show the same for all prior years that have the same satellite data. They might have that, or maybe not since it is about real time tracking.

https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-5P/Mapping_methane_emissions_on_a_global_scale

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Their studies show that there are around 100 high volume-emitting methane leaks at any one time around the world. Around 50% of these emissions come from regions with activities in oil and gas, coal mining and other heavy industries.

So we should be able to plug half of them.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4090 on: March 10, 2021, 07:16:21 PM »
Average annual US oil production fell 8% last year from it's record high in 2019.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Oil-Production-Saw-The-Largest-Decline-Ever-In-2020.html

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U.S. Oil Production Saw The Largest Decline Ever In 2020
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 09, 2021

Due to plunging drilling activity amid low oil prices, U.S. crude oil production fell by nearly 1 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, registering the largest annual decline in history, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.

In 2020, U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 million bpd, dropping by 935,000 bpd—or 8 percent—compared to the record-high annual average of 12.2 million bpd in 2019.

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Total U.S. crude oil production in December fell to 11 million bpd, while the EIA sees 2021 output averaging 11 million bpd, down from 11.3 million bpd in 2020, before rising to 11.5 million bpd in 2022.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4091 on: March 12, 2021, 12:46:24 PM »
Hi All,

may i bring a new Report by RethinkX (Tony Seba et al.) to your Attention?

PDF: https://www.rethinkx.com/s/Rethinking-Energy-LCOE.pdf
Video:

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In this report, we explain how the nonlinear dynamics of the SWB disruption of energy will rapidly drive the capacity factor of all conventional coal, gas, nuclear, and hydro power plants toward zero throughout the 2020s. The overwhelming majority of these conventional facilities will become financially unviable and their assets stranded over the next decade or so.

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4092 on: March 12, 2021, 06:57:48 PM »
Hi All,

may i bring a new Report by RethinkX (Tony Seba et al.) to your Attention?

PDF: https://www.rethinkx.com/s/Rethinking-Energy-LCOE.pdf
Video:

Quote
In this report, we explain how the nonlinear dynamics of the SWB disruption of energy will rapidly drive the capacity factor of all conventional coal, gas, nuclear, and hydro power plants toward zero throughout the 2020s. The overwhelming majority of these conventional facilities will become financially unviable and their assets stranded over the next decade or so.

Great video.  Thanks for posting.

There's an excellent discussion about how the decreasing capacity factors of fossil fuel power plants are miscalculated in reports of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by agencies like the EIA starting around the 7 minute mark.  The example of what happened to coal in the last decade is shown around the 10 minute mark.  Basically, LCOE for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and even hydro is too low in these reports because their capacity factors are over-estimated.  Wind and solar with batteries is currently cheaper than all of these and the costs continue to decrease.

tl,dr:  Every fossil fuel asset (power plants, mines, pipelines, etc...) being built today will be a stranded asset by 2030.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4093 on: March 12, 2021, 08:49:20 PM »
While rethinkx brings up a legitimate point they extend it beyond reasonable. Their primary thesis is capacity factors for traditional power plants are lower than used by eia and these factors will continue to fall in the future. They use the same drop in capacity factors for all non solar wind or batteries. They predict capacity factors drop to about 15% by 2027. Hydro capacity factors are not going to drop to 15% by 2027 neither is nuclear. Coal capacity factor is between 40 and 50% below 50% for coal and plants start closing. As much as I want all coal to close it seems improbable to me that their capacity factor drops much below current levels. It was 47% in 2019 and 40% in 2020. I think it is on track to be close to 2019 this year partly because of increased natural gas prices and partly because another 2.7 GW of coal are scheduled to retire. Peaker turbines, which are calculated separately, run less than 20% of the time and may continue to do so. At this time new batteries are cheaper than new peaker turbines. Some peaker turbines may run less than 1% of the time. It will be a long time before some of these assets will be replaced.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2021, 08:56:09 PM by interstitial »

Sciguy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4094 on: March 13, 2021, 01:33:09 AM »
As long as the cost of new solar (or wind) plus batteries is cheaper than the cost of an operating power plant, that power plant is no longer economically feasable.  It will be cheaper to shut it down and build new solar (or wind) and batteries.

Given the fuel cost of oil and gas plants, they are most in danger and will be gone first.  But nuclear has high maintenance costs and hydro does too.  While they will probably outlive their fossil-fuel brethren, it won't be for much longer than it takes to build more solar and wind.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4095 on: March 14, 2021, 03:30:01 AM »
As long as the cost of new solar (or wind) plus batteries is cheaper than the cost of an operating power plant, that power plant is no longer economically feasable.  It will be cheaper to shut it down and build new solar (or wind) and batteries.
This is of course true I have not claimed otherwise.
Given the fuel cost of oil and gas plants, they are most in danger and will be gone first.  But nuclear has high maintenance costs and hydro does too.  While they will probably outlive their fossil-fuel brethren, it won't be for much longer than it takes to build more solar and wind.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf This is the model criticized by renextx. It is flawed but the criticism is right in some ways and wrong in others.
Hydro LCOE minus capital costs are $16.64/MWH. (No large new dams will be built in the US  and most have been fully amortized so new build costs are irrelevant.) For transparency I will include this number LCOE $55.26/mwh. Hydroelectric plants designed to last over 100 years associated dams designed to last over 200 years.
New projects LCOE $/mwh
Solar $31.30/mwh capacity factor 29% plant life guarantied 25 years expected life about 30-35 years. LCOE minus capital costs for solar are $9.26/mwh. In order for solar to displace existing hydro capitol costs would have to drop below $16.64/mwh-$9.26/mwh = $7.38/mwh or about 31% of current capital costs. Actually hydro is more flexible than solar alone so it would need to drop further.

Solar plus 4 hour battery $45.13/mwh
Battery $121.84/mwh the cost of creating this energy must be added to this number based on 10% capacity factor battery life still somewhat speculative this model uses 14
Wind onshore $31.45/mwh based on 41% capacity factor
Wind offshore $115.04/mwh based on 45% capacity factor (Largest available turbine claims capacity factor approaching 60%. Larger turbines reach higher steadier winds. This would drop to about $80/mwh or less) This industry is new to us and costs will drop quickly at first as it expands.
Natural Gas (NG) combined cycle (based on flawed capacity factor of 87% that renextx points out) $34.51/mwh
NG combustion turbine (also known as peaking turbine) $199.01/mwh based on 10% capacity factor
Coal $72.78/mwh also based on flawed 85% capacity factor
Washington state has the lowest electricity rate of all US states and the concentration of hydropower at 62% in 2019. (2019 was a drought year normally it is higher.)  Within limits hydropower is dispatch able and helps fill gaps in solar and wind. There are no fuel costs with hydro just like solar and wind. For that reason capacity factors are only affected by weather. If battery prices drop low enough (currently a long way off) hydro may eventually be taken off line but it will not be because capacity factors of hydro plants decrease.
You misunderstand the arguments. The economics of nuclear plants are such that they will always be run at 90ish percent. When they become uneconomic they will be shut down completely thus any remaining plants will still be run with that capacity factor.
While my arguments are scattered the take away of this is rethinkx use capacity factors to accurately describe the historically deteriorating economic position of coal. The future economic position of coal and NG is in part dependent on future capacity factors of coal and NG. The future capacity factors are unlikely to follow their predictions.  The argument they use does not apply to nuclear though it is getting less competitive and will most likely be displaced by SW&B. Existing hydro is the cheapest energy available and somewhat flexible unlike wind or solar.



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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4096 on: March 14, 2021, 07:23:07 AM »
Re: no fuel costs with hydro

Mmm. Depends on how you count. Flood control and irrigation are factors. You might want to retain water for irrigation instead of running the generators, or you might want to let it out in anticipation of flood surge ...

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4097 on: March 14, 2021, 09:00:45 AM »
hydro is complicated. on one side there is the pumping hydro that has fuel costs, but in fact it is only energy storage, not an energy source, and on the other side you have the hydro that is going with the flow.

In both cases you have high maintenance cost because, well, it works with water, it moves... but it is still way cheaper than a gasoline generator.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4098 on: March 14, 2021, 01:51:43 PM »
Hydro isn't the problem - the problem is the damn dams.

There is often a conflict between using dams for hydroelectricity and other things. I understood a lot of dams in the USA are to be removed as in....

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201110-the-largest-dam-removal-project-in-american-history
For over a century, one of the most important salmon runs in the United States has had to contend with historic dams – and now four of them are set to be taken down.

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“My great uncle and my grandma and my great grandparents and, I'm sure, their great grandparents: they were all fishermen. That's just what they did – they fished and it was out of necessity to support their families. And it's because that's what we've always done and we've never known another life,” says Amy Cordalis, the general counsel of the Yurok, and a member of California’s largest indigenous tribe.

It’s hard to overstate how important this livelihood has been to the Yurok people who have lived for millennia in rural Northern California. And yet this livelihood has been diminishing for decades after the Klamath River – which flows through the tribe’s territory – was dammed for hydroelectricity. But now, after years of painstaking negotiations, the fortunes of the Yurok could be set to change, with the largest dam removal project in US history given the green light.

Although she grew up in Ashland, Oregon, Cordalis would often visit Requa, a tiny village near the mouth of the Klamath River in northern California, to see family, attend tribal ceremonies – and to fish. Her father – “the ultimate Yurok fisherman” – had four daughters and a son, and he taught all of them to fish.

“When I was growing up, there were still decent salmon runs,” she recalls. “On good nights, you could catch 100, 200 fish. We loved it. That's when you felt like you were like being your best Yurok self: you were doing what the creator made you for. You were going to be able to fill up your smokehouse and your freezer and not only just yours, but your grandma’s, your aunties’, your cousins’ – all the people you cared about, you could give them fish so that they had food.”

Research bears this out. The Klamath River, once home to the third-largest salmon runs (the migration of adult salmon upstream to spawn) in the continental United States, now has runs at a fraction of their original numbers. One of five Pacific salmon species, the spring-run Chinook salmon, which historically numbered in the hundreds of thousands, has almost entirely been wiped out: the run consisted of fewer than 700 fish last year. Another species, the Coho salmon, which grows typically to between 60cm and 76cm (24 to 30 inches) and can weigh over 5kg (11lb) in adulthood, has been designated “threatened” under the US’s Endangered Species Act.

The dams built on the Klamath River have been identified as one cause of the drop in salmon numbers. Eight dams were built on the river between the early 1900s and 1962 to produce hydroelectric power. The presence of dams has been linked to marked changes in salmon populations on the Klamath and elsewhere.

“Anytime you put a dam on a river, it always has profound effects: it chops the river into two pieces,” explains the Yurok tribe’s senior fisheries biologist, Michael Belchik, a tribal member who has decades of experience in fish restoration. “Rivers carry a lot more than just water. The water goes down river, fish move upriver, but not only that: there's nutrients, sediment and other organisms.”

The solution that Yurok and a coalition of other tribes and environmental organisations have long advocated for is the removal of the lower four of the eight dams on the Klamath. After painstaking negotiations, this led to the signing of an agreement between PacifiCorp (which operates these dams) and 40 other signatories, including tribes and state governments in 2010.

The simultaneous removal of the four dams, with a combined height of 411ft (125m), makes it the largest dam removal project in America’s history, according to the Klamath River Renewal Corporation, the nonprofit tasked with overseeing the dam removals. It is also set to be the most expensive, at a cost of almost $450m (£340m).

The result will be 400 stream-miles of restored habitat for salmon and other migratory species like steelhead trout and Pacific lamprey. Opening up previously inaccessible spawning grounds will allow for greater genetic diversity and less crowding, says Belchik, which reduces the risk of disease transmission.

“I've spent my career helping design fish restoration projects of varying types,” says Belchik. In terms of impact, “restoration of passage [projects] are always the most successful and most immediate”.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #4099 on: March 14, 2021, 07:58:40 PM »
Re: no fuel costs with hydro

Mmm. Depends on how you count. Flood control and irrigation are factors. You might want to retain water for irrigation instead of running the generators, or you might want to let it out in anticipation of flood surge ...

sidd

as I said dispatchable within limits