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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #150 on: December 13, 2014, 01:28:18 AM »
Halliburton Cuts 1,000 Employees as Sanctions Slow Russia
Quote
Political turmoil from Russia to West Africa helped push 1,000 workers out of their jobs at the world’s largest fracking company.

Halliburton Co. (HAL) plans to make the job cuts immediately in the Eastern Hemisphere as it strives to cope with an industry fallout brought on by oil prices at a five-year low, the Houston-based company said in a statement yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/halliburton-cuts-1-000-employees-as-sanctions-slow-russia.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #151 on: December 13, 2014, 01:35:44 AM »
U.S. Stocks Tumble to Cap Dow’s Worst Week Since 2011
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More than $1 trillion was erased from the value of global equities this week as oil prices tumbled, raising concern over the strength of the global economy. Oil extended losses today amid speculation that OPEC’s biggest members will defend market share against U.S. shale producers. The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for the fourth time in five months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/u-s-index-futures-fall-after-s-p-500-rebound-as-oil-outlook-cut.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #152 on: December 13, 2014, 01:45:05 AM »
I'm starting to favor - Saudis are whipping the other oil producers so they will get back in line.  Everyone cut production enough to support a return to higher prices.

I'm not sure they can control US and Canadian production like they can "government oil companies".  The US and Canadian stuff may be lost market.

They might be able to lock prices high, but low enough to keep much new production from coming on line.  This could take a year.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #153 on: December 13, 2014, 01:53:41 AM »
At least solar panels don't explode....

Why a Pipeline Explosion in Turkey Matters to the U.S.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/the-map-that-shows-why-a-pipeline-explosion-in-turkey-matters-to-the-u-s-.html
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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #154 on: December 13, 2014, 04:30:33 PM »
Quote
It most certainly does not mean that.

Do you not understand how CAFE standards work?

Quote
The incoming Congress is fundamentally opposed to these kinds of regulations

Do you not understand how legislation becomes law?

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ev's will have no effect what-so-ever on our avoiding the catastrophic effects of climate change.  Even if our entire vehicle fleet was electric it would not make a meaningful difference.

Can you possibly believe that?  If you do, please explain why you think it true.

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The problem to fix is 7.3 going on 9+ billion people.

How do you propose dropping population numbers quickly?

Oh please!  A little education is in order.

If you would take some time and review the history of fuel efficiency standards in the US over the last 45 years, their limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects it would illuminating.  You might - or rather should be - a little embarrassed by your first 2 comments.  Clueless is a good description.

Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption.  Not to mention dealing with climate change. EV's are just a form of kicking the can down the road.  BAU.

But I understand where you are at.  It goes to the quote that appears at the end of all my posts.  "We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn"

Or one could use a modified version of the Sinclair quote about not being able to understand something because ones way of life depends on not understanding it.

Civilization is deep in the 5 stages of grief and each individual takes their own path.  We see many each day who are still in stages 1 and 2 - Denial and Anger.  Others fall into 3,  Bargaining - faith in techno-optimism. You might look in the mirror about now. Some have reached Stage 4 and are depressed and appear to have given up - but they are of course further on in the process of becoming healthy once again.  And a small few have Accepted reality and want to move on with life and deal with the real problems.

If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem.  I have made a number of suggestions here and elsewhere about how to make progress on the fundamental problem - population is the disease, climate change is the symptoms.  It is truly a very hard problem.  But running from a problem solves nothing.  Since I have already stepped up to the plate on this issue many times --- it is YOUR turn to step up.

You tell us how you would fix it.  I promise to treat you just as well as I was treated.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #155 on: December 13, 2014, 06:34:19 PM »
Quote
If you would take some time and review the history of fuel efficiency standards in the US over the last 45 years, their limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects it would illuminating.  You might - or rather should be - a little embarrassed by your first 2 comments.  Clueless is a good description.

Here's the history, Jim.  Find me a place where standards were dialed back other than a couple of minor temporary (one year) adjustments back before 1990.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#Standards_by_model_year.2C_1978-2011


Quote
Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption.  Not to mention dealing with climate change. EV's are just a form of kicking the can down the road.  BAU.

BAU is driving ICEVs powered by petroleum. 

EVs charged with renewable energy take the carbon out of personal transportation.

Quote
"We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn"

Or we err because we fail to understand the facts.

Quote
If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem.

I agree that population is a large part of our problem.  Were there only a few million of us on the planet we could burn coal and oil without having a noticeable effect on our climate.

I absolutely disagree with your belief that it will be impossible to minimize climate change without drastically lowering population numbers.  Totally disagree.

But since you believe that our only way to avoid extreme climate change I will ask you again to address the question. 

Jim, what is your plan to drop the world's population by a very significant number by 2030?

viddaloo

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #156 on: December 14, 2014, 01:28:57 AM »
Oh please!  A little education is in order.

If you would take some time and review the history of fuel efficiency standards in the US over the last 45 years, their limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects it would illuminating.  You might - or rather should be - a little embarrassed by your first 2 comments.  Clueless is a good description.

Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption.  Not to mention dealing with climate change. EV's are just a form of kicking the can down the road.  BAU.

But I understand where you are at.  It goes to the quote that appears at the end of all my posts.  "We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn"

Or one could use a modified version of the Sinclair quote about not being able to understand something because ones way of life depends on not understanding it.

Civilization is deep in the 5 stages of grief and each individual takes their own path.  We see many each day who are still in stages 1 and 2 - Denial and Anger.  Others fall into 3,  Bargaining - faith in techno-optimism. You might look in the mirror about now. Some have reached Stage 4 and are depressed and appear to have given up - but they are of course further on in the process of becoming healthy once again.  And a small few have Accepted reality and want to move on with life and deal with the real problems.

If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem.  I have made a number of suggestions here and elsewhere about how to make progress on the fundamental problem - population is the disease, climate change is the symptoms.  It is truly a very hard problem.  But running from a problem solves nothing.  Since I have already stepped up to the plate on this issue many times --- it is YOUR turn to step up.

You tell us how you would fix it.  I promise to treat you just as well as I was treated.

Ain't that the truth! To me, reading such a brilliant summary is worth all the endless threads of techno–optimist hopium.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #157 on: December 14, 2014, 01:55:52 AM »
If that's the truth then please give us the history of "limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects".

Give us a cogent explanation of why "Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption. "
 
Then explain to us why "If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem."

Since you support these claims it should take little effort for you to explain the basis for your opinion.



viddaloo

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #158 on: December 14, 2014, 02:46:05 AM »
Bob, I believe I've reached the 5th stage and have Accepted reality, which is probably why I started the Optimism thread.

I'm not focusing much on the population part of it, but I don't doubt the experts when they say that's the core problem. Now, the usual shoot–from–the–hip reply to all talk about population being the problem, is 'who should go' and 'who would you kill'. Being at the 5th stage I'm more like 'pop will eat itself', ie the issue will be solved by MN before any body of humans has decided on a way to deal with the problem.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #159 on: December 14, 2014, 03:19:37 AM »
So, viddaloo, what you are saying is that your agreement with Jim was not, after all, an agreement?  That it was just a group of words you posted with the intent that they should not be construed to infer your opinion?

When you wrote "To me, reading such a brilliant summary is worth all the endless threads of techno–optimist hopium." you were lying?

Help us out here.  Your behavior is most confusing.


viddaloo

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #160 on: December 14, 2014, 04:18:53 AM »
My pleasure, Bob: As usual, I find someone's analysis wise and truthful, yet disagree with their solutions or suggestions. Those are two separate things. (For instance, communists may write a good critique of capitalism, but you wouldn't want the sort of society they suggest.)

In this case, I fail to see humanity seated at a negotiation table (like now in Lima, Peru) discussing the brutal decimation of world populations. In Norway's 7–party parliament, for instance, none of them will headline 'brutal depopulation' for the upcoming 2017 general elections. That's just the way politics works. So I can agree with JimD that our vast numbers are probably the core problem, without seeing a fix to climate problems ever coming through human efforts to adjust to reality when it comes to our own numbers. (At least not overtly. There's rumour and speculation on the Interwebs about covert programs to reduce population — elsewhere, of course — so this would be the way to 'fix it', although I, personally, do not support the spread of diseases and pests for this purpose.)
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #161 on: December 14, 2014, 04:31:49 AM »
Bull.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #162 on: December 14, 2014, 08:50:19 PM »
Is $40 Oil Coming?  Very likely yes.
Quote
...The posted price of Williston Basin Sweet crude was reported at $41.44 on Friday, while Williston Basin Sour went for $49.25 a barrel. These two are the grades of crude produced in North Dakota’s Bakken shale play.

The posted price by Plains Marketing, a division of Plains All American Pipeline LP (NYSE: PAA), for WTI outside the Permian Basin was $54.25 and the highest price of all, for Louisiana Light Sweet was just $54.50. The posted price is what Plains is offering to pay producers and provides a good indicator of market direction in the U.S.

As prices for Brent and WTI fall below $50, prices for Bakken crude are going to settle below $50 and if Brent falls below $50, well, then things could get a lot more interesting for Bakken crude.

No one knows for sure what will happen. When crude fell to below $40 a barrel in 2009, horizontal drilling and fracking made only modest contributions to U.S. oil production. North Dakota produced an average of 218,000 barrels a day in 2009 compared with more than 1 million barrels in 2014.
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2014/12/14/is-40-oil-coming/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #163 on: December 14, 2014, 09:04:47 PM »
Bakken oil pipeline project slammed shut
Quote
Enterprise Products Partners is shelving a proposed pipeline that would have transported crude from North Dakota to Oklahoma, the company announced on Friday.
...
Enterprise Products—a publicly traded partnership designed to provide financing on oil and gas infrastructure projects — said in a terse statement that investors had "decided not to move forward with development of its proposed Bakken to Cushing crude oil pipeline."
...
Infrastructure partnerships such as Enterprise Products' have raised billions in private capital, in expectation that the U.S.' growing energy independence would create more opportunities to transport domestically produced oil and gas. With Enterprise's actions, that assumption appears in some doubt.

"It's a clear indication that the lowering of oil prices and the dialing down of crude demand for 2015 is taking its toll," said Vincent DeVito, partner at the law firm of Bowditch & Dewey.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102265279
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #164 on: December 15, 2014, 05:15:40 PM »
Great news!  All we have to do to stop global warming is draw a lower trend line! 
Oh, wait, deniers already have that covered....  Sorry!  ;-)

Quote
“I keep drawing trendlines on my charts that I believe will help boost [oil] prices but, so far, they have easily given way to the selling pressure each and every time,” Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/chart-watchers-transfixed-as-oil-trend-lines-die-one-b.html
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 01:48:51 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #165 on: December 15, 2014, 07:56:51 PM »
Quote
The 28% drop in the US average retail price of gasoline since 23 June may not have much effect on automobile travel, and in turn, gasoline consumption, according to an analysis by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline is a relatively inelastic product—i.e., changes in prices have little influence on demand—and has become more so over the past few decades.

Quote
Price elasticity measures the responsiveness of demand to changes in price. Almost all price elasticities are negative—i.e., an increase in price leads to lower demand, and vice versa. Air travel, especially for vacation, tends to be highly elastic: a 10% increase in the price of air travel leads to an even greater (more than 10%) decrease in the amount of air travel. Price changes have greater effects if the changes persist over time, as opposed to being temporary shocks.

Automobile travel in the United States is much less elastic, and its price elasticity has fallen in recent decades. The price elasticity of motor gasoline is currently estimated to be in the range of -0.02 to -0.04 in the short term—it takes a 25% to 50% decrease in the price of gasoline to raise automobile travel 1%.

In the mid 1990s, the price elasticity for gasoline was higher, around -0.08, meaning it only took a 12% decrease in the price of gasoline to raise automobile travel by 1%.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/12/20141215-eiagasoline.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #166 on: December 16, 2014, 01:44:53 AM »
​"Sorry, Putin. Russia’s economy is doomed."
Quote
...It's only a small simplification, you see, to say that Russia doesn't so much have an economy as it has an oil exporting business that subsidizes everything else.
Quote
The latest news is that Russia's central bank raised interest rates from 10.5 to 17 percent at an emergency 1 a.m. meeting in an attempt to stop the ruble, which is down 50 percent on the year against the dollar, from falling any further. It's a desperate move to save Russia's currency that comes at the cost of sacrificing Russia's economy. So even if it "works," things are about to get a lot worse.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #167 on: December 16, 2014, 04:07:17 PM »
Financial writers:  low oil prices may lead to oil industry job cuts, civil unrest, and changes in national interest rate plans.

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Two key Fed officials said earlier this month that the drop in energy prices was a good thing because it should help lift consumer spending. But with prices plummeting even further since then, Krosby said the Fed may have to reevaluate that argument.
"You can look at how lower oil helps the U.S. economy, but this is not an equation that's equal on both sides. It could be a sign of weakness in Europe, China and Japan. Plus, you are starting to hear about domestic job cuts in the energy industry," she said.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/15/investing/federal-reserve-oil-interest-rates/index.html
Quote
Without supply disruptions or a cut in OPEC output, that means oil storage in the West could be full to overflowing next year.
That all adds up to a pretty grim outlook for poorer exporting nations, whose economies rely heavily on energy.
"The resulting downward price pressure would raise the risk of social instability or financial difficulties if producers found it difficult to pay back debt," the agency said.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/12/investing/oil-prices-iea-unrest/index.html
Quote
According to Fatima Iqbal of Azzad Asset Management, over 15% of total employment gains since the beginning of 2008 have come from the energy industry, even though it is less than 1% of the country's job base.
"A prolonged slump in energy may endanger these jobs," she said.
Fadel Gheit, an oil and gas analyst at Oppenheimer and Co., is far more pessimistic. He thinks a lot of energy companies are out of touch with reality.
"Everybody is talking about $75 oil...maybe they're living on another planet," he said. Oil is currently trading around $58.
His reasoning: Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, is now basing its national budget on $60 oil. Kuwait, another heavy hitter in the cartel, is budgeting for $55. That means they're digging in for the long haul.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/12/investing/oil-prices-job-cuts/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #168 on: December 16, 2014, 10:19:07 PM »

And.... Dubai's stock market loses 33% in 30 days. Graph: http://t.co/w53qsX8YYo
Quote
Dubai’s index declined 28 percent since the end of November and is poised for the worst month in more than six years. Emaar Properties PJSC (EMAAR), the developer of the world’s tallest tower in Dubai, plunged 10 percent, the maximum allowed in a day. It closed at 6.12 dirhams, erasing gains this year.

The ADX General Index in Abu Dhabi, home to almost 6 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, retreated 6.9 percent, the most since November 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/dubai-stocks-lead-gcc-declines-as-global-markets-oil-retreat.html
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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #169 on: December 17, 2014, 01:06:39 AM »
The largest vessel the world has ever seen
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30394137

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #170 on: December 17, 2014, 02:47:03 PM »
Quote
After the single worst day in Russia’s nine-month-old financial crisis, the fallout is spreading across global markets.

Pacific Investment Management Co. (PEBIX) is facing mounting losses on its Russian bond holdings; almost every bullish ruble option contract registered in the U.S. has been made worthless; and foreign-exchange brokers in New York and London told clients they’re no longer taking ruble trades. Sergey Shvetsov, a first deputy central bank governor, expressed astonishment at the scope of the collapse during a conference in Moscow.
...
Pimco Losses

Pimco’s $3.3 billion Emerging Markets Bond Fund has been one of the hardest hit. It held $803 million of Russian corporate and sovereign bonds at the end of September, equal to 21 percent of total assets, an amount that’s more than double that of the benchmark it tracks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund has lost 7.9 percent in the past month, trailing 95 percent of its peers.
...
Every single other contract is now out-of-the-money because they gave traders the right to buy the ruble at exchange rates that are stronger than yesterday’s closing level, according to data compiled by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. from clients of U.S. banks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #171 on: December 18, 2014, 01:03:11 AM »
Big news!
Cuomo to Ban Fracking in New York State, Citing Health Risks
Quote
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s administration announced on Wednesday that it would ban hydraulic fracturing in New York State because of concerns over health risks, ending years of uncertainty over the disputed method of natural gas extraction.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/nyregion/cuomo-to-ban-fracking-in-new-york-state-citing-health-risks.html

@bobbymagill: Correction in @nytimes fracking ban story says fracking not used for oil extraction. That's not true.
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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #172 on: December 18, 2014, 02:52:27 PM »
Big engineering!

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30394137

Quote
The largest vessel the world has ever seen

Prelude is a staggering 488m long and the best way to grasp what this means is by comparison with something more familiar.

Four football pitches placed end-to-end would not quite match this vessel's length - and if you could lay the 301m of the Eiffel Tower alongside it, or the 443m of the Empire State Building, they wouldn't do so either.

In terms of sheer volume, Prelude is mind-boggling too: if you took six of the world's largest aircraft carriers, and measured the total amount of water they displaced, that would just about be the same as with this one gigantic vessel.....

Hence Prelude will become the world's first floating LNG plant - or FLNG in the terminology of the industry....



We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #173 on: December 18, 2014, 11:46:44 PM »
Quote
There are zombies in the oil fields.

After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead -- still standing upright, but with little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands from Canada to Venezuela.

In a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world’s largest new oil and gas fields -- excluding U.S. shale -- and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S., the shale-oil party isn’t over yet, but zombies are beginning to crash it.

Quote
A pause in exploration and development may sound like good news for investors concerned about climate change. A vocal minority have been warning for years that potentially trillions of dollars of untapped assets may become stranded due to climate policies and improved energy efficiency. The challenges faced by oil developers today may provide a small sense of what's to come.

However, these glut-driven prices can’t stay low forever. Oil production hasn’t slowed yet, but as zombie projects go unfunded, it will. This is how the boom-bust-boom of the oil market goes: prices fall, then production follows, pushing prices higher again. The longer this standoff goes, the more zombies will languish and the sharper the rebounding price spike may be.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/bankers-see-1-trillion-of-investments-stranded-in-the-oil-fields.html


Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #174 on: December 19, 2014, 10:09:41 PM »
Saudi Arabia: no change in their oil output foreseen for months; other producers be damned.
Quote
In a situation like this, it is difficult, if not impossible, that the kingdom or OPEC would carry out any action that may result in a reduction of its share in market and an increase of others’ shares,” Al-Naimi said, according to the state-run news agency. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, will stick to its oil policies, he said.
...
OPEC won’t change its output level and isn’t planning an emergency meeting [to consider changes] before the next scheduled gathering on June 5, he said.
Quote
“How hard will Saudi work to bring prices down really fast?” Jamie Webster, a Washington-based senior director for global oil markets at IHS Inc., said on Twitter. “Answer appears to be ‘very.’”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/saudi-arabia-s-naimi-says-difficult-for-opec-to-cut-oil-output.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #175 on: December 19, 2014, 10:23:24 PM »
Putin is in for a lot of buttache.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #176 on: December 20, 2014, 02:31:11 PM »
Tumbling oil prices have exposed a weakness in the insurance that some U.S. shale drillers bought to protect themselves against a crash.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-19/oil-crash-exposes-shale-drillers-in-risky-three-way-bets.html?hootPostID=8602071170966cf5ca551b53c8ee2e7a

Video discussion: even opening U.S. oil for exporting will not help raise low oil prices.  Other countries do not use the U.S. light crude, and right now, the problem is all about oversupply, not demand.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/oil-market-amrita-sen-on-prices-energy-m-a-outlook-ikzOQhwtQvqEz8yzJgN5VQ.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #177 on: December 20, 2014, 07:11:32 PM »
Bull.

Since we have reached this point I will be equally frank.

I think you are either a complete idiot or here deliberately trying to keep change from happening.  You ignore the realities of facts and science, and demonstrate no capability of logical reasoning.  And are seemingly ignorant of how humans make decisions and can be manipulated.  It is hard to see how one could actually arrive where you seem to sit without deliberateness being involved.

Are you one of the paid shills for the various BAU crowds?  If I went to wattsupwiththat would i find a few hundred lunatic posts of yours there?

I long ago started skipping over almost all of your posts.  It will be 100% from this date forward.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #178 on: December 20, 2014, 07:21:34 PM »
Jim, I started to write a reply to your comment.  It just seems so unnecessary.

I'm sorry I can't write things you want to hear.  Best you ignore my comments.



viddaloo

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #179 on: December 20, 2014, 11:45:41 PM »
Bull.

Since we have reached this point I will be equally frank.

I think you are either a complete idiot or here deliberately trying to keep change from happening.  You ignore the realities of facts and science, and demonstrate no capability of logical reasoning.  And are seemingly ignorant of how humans make decisions and can be manipulated.  It is hard to see how one could actually arrive where you seem to sit without deliberateness being involved.

Are you one of the paid shills for the various BAU crowds?  If I went to wattsupwiththat would i find a few hundred lunatic posts of yours there?

I long ago started skipping over almost all of your posts.  It will be 100% from this date forward.

JimD, the current popular green policy myth says we all have to stay positive the entire time in order to change the world into a more sustainable place. My guess is that Bob here is attempting to do just that, stay positive. Naturally, such attempts will seem increasingly desperate in the eyes of more realistic observers, but I don't think there's any reason for suspecting foul play in this case. The psychology of staying positive at any cost more than adequately explains this, IMO.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #180 on: December 21, 2014, 12:11:58 AM »
And I'll repeat myself, Vid.

Bull.

If you can't see what is happening the real world that is  your problem.  We have now developed the technology we need to get off fossil fuels.  And we're moving quickly into the implementation phase.

Does this mean that we will stop climate change overnight?  Of course not.  No one has made that claim.

Does this mean that we will absolutely avoid extreme climate change and live happily ever after?  Of course not.  No one has made that claim.
---

Is there a small portion of the population that loves to wallow in misery so much that they create misery for themselves?  That's an interesting question.

viddaloo

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #181 on: December 21, 2014, 12:23:39 AM »
Bob,

I salute you for staying positive, so no bad feelings. OK? It's just that more realistic vantage points imply an era of very dense darkness for civilization and all of humanity, although, as we have discussed in the Optimist thread, such a crash may be the best hope for the biosphere over all.
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wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #182 on: December 21, 2014, 12:48:13 AM »
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014

Heinberg on The Oil Price Crash of 2014

I'm a bit disappointed that he didn't talk about the possible impacts on renewables. I've heard some comments that it will hurt them, but that doesn't seem very likely to me, since they mostly (except for bio-ethonol) don't directly compete (EV's still being a relatively tiny part of the market, and petrol can't compete there anyway).

Thoughts?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #183 on: December 21, 2014, 01:22:58 AM »
Quote
It's just that more realistic vantage points imply an era of very dense darkness for civilization and all of humanity, although, as we have discussed in the Optimist thread, such a crash may be the best hope for the biosphere over all.

So, since you won't allow yourself to see a way out of the mess we've created you appoint yourself the ultimate judge and call for a crash and a terrible future for  humans and most of the plant and animal species on Earth.

Sorry, but I think you foolish.

'Tis a dark world you inhabit....

viddaloo

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #184 on: December 21, 2014, 06:17:48 AM »
Quote
It's just that more realistic vantage points imply an era of very dense darkness for civilization and all of humanity, although, as we have discussed in the Optimist thread, such a crash may be the best hope for the biosphere over all.

So, since you won't allow yourself to see a way out of the mess we've created you appoint yourself the ultimate judge and call for a crash and a terrible future for  humans and most of the plant and animal species on Earth.

Sorry, but I think you foolish.

'Tis a dark world you inhabit....



Bob,

I agree such a complete crash of civilization is an unpleasant thought and that it would be more gay to actually believe that the turtle–pace of present polluticians would nevertheless suffice to turn society around 180° in time to avoid a runaway Greenhouse situation with massive CH₄ releases.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2014, 08:30:36 AM by viddaloo »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #185 on: December 21, 2014, 07:07:29 AM »
I suppose one could just grab an available belief from here or there as they felt a need.

I prefer to look at what is currently happening.  I'm sort of into letting facts do the steering....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #186 on: December 22, 2014, 05:17:33 PM »
Saudi Arabia:  other countries should reduce their oil output.
Quote
“Irresponsible production from outside OPEC is behind the fall in prices,” Mazrouei said. “We call on all other producers to stop the increase.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-21/non-opec-producers-called-on-to-cut-oil-output-amid-oversupply.html
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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #187 on: December 23, 2014, 04:31:06 PM »
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/saudis-tell-shale-industry-will-break-plans-keep-pumping-even-20-barrel.html

So the Saudi's have thrown down the gauntlet.  They have publically stated that they are going to return the market to a more competitive one and drive the high cost producers out.  Since the US no longer has any real ability to force the Saudi's to their will one can expect that this big dip in prices will last for some time.  In other words much longer than the paid shills spouting nonsense from the media and investment houses.

Oil shale operations in the US are going to get hammered, tar sands production in Canada, a number of countries like Venezuela, Nigeria, Russian are going to have real problems, deep water drilling will be unprofitable and so on.  If Saudi can keep prices low for a year it will remake the oil industry for a long time.  Boom then bust.

There will be big knock off effects that have large impacts re various countries economies as well as a host of impacts related to climate change.  This kind of event will precipitate many kinds of negative political changes.  Especially here in the US.  We are already seeing significant increases in new sales of large vehicles, flat sales of ev's, strong indications that there will be much greater political resistance to many policies directed at mitigating climate change and environmental damage.  Much cheaper fossil fuel prices will help to keep demand from plummeting even in the face of what looks like a probable global slowdown in the short term.

All in all not a good situation if dealing with climate change is high on ones radar.   
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #188 on: December 23, 2014, 04:58:38 PM »
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014

Heinberg on The Oil Price Crash of 2014

I'm a bit disappointed that he didn't talk about the possible impacts on renewables. I've heard some comments that it will hurt them, but that doesn't seem very likely to me, since they mostly (except for bio-ethonol) don't directly compete (EV's still being a relatively tiny part of the market, and petrol can't compete there anyway).

Thoughts?

I basically disagree Wili.

Renewables are still struggling mightily. They face a host of headwinds that range from the pure economic competitiveness issue, to infrastructure issues, to resource issues, to political resistance, to the scale required to achieve replacement levels, to the fact that they are not yet being used to replace fossil capabilities in any meaningful way.  Add to all of that a worsening political situation re their continued large scale government support needed (and not just in the US either) and what will happen as the next global economic downturn demonstrates our worsening ability to apply vast resources oriented towards change.  We are on the downslope now and the one certain trend is that it will be harder to pay for and implement all forms of change and each succeeding day will make it worse.  The apparent easy and popular path will always be BAU.  No politician will choose differently. 

So we will not choose to make a massive move into renewables.  Rather we will putsz along as we are now sort of balancing different versions of BAU until we collapse.  And let us not forget that we could not even come close to running the scale and type of civilization we have today on power systems based solely upon renewables (that green bau I talk about all the time).

Just to reiterate and to keep the focus where it should be and not on peripheral issues like renewables and crude oil - the real problem is population levels.  There is no significant climate change problem nor civilizational collapse problem that can be solved if the overwhelmingly number one cause of our problems is ignored just because many find it distasteful. 

I would ask the question "Are we really such cowards?" but since we have repeatedly proven that we are there is no need to ask. 

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

viddaloo

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #189 on: December 23, 2014, 05:41:50 PM »
I prefer to look at what is currently happening.  I'm sort of into letting facts do the steering....

Always the best tactic! I'm sure you know that looking at what is currently happening and letting facts do the steering is what makes honest observers state that we have a Business As Usual (BAU) emissions path, virtually unbroken, and that will last long into the future (if we have any left of that future stuff).

Longtime observers of climate change policy often don't believe a word polluticians say, and this distrust is largely caused by observing climate change policy over long periods of time. For people who distrust the pollutocrats, climate talks are more about markets, growth and public perception management, or PR. The BAU will go on until it no longer goes on.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #190 on: December 23, 2014, 07:41:54 PM »
Here's the BAU for global solar -



Here's the BAu for global wind -



The cowards are installing solar and wind at accelerating rates. 

Gosh, Jim, I don't understand why you and vid don't hold hands and jump off something tall.  Yours is such a miserable future, I don't know how you hang on.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #191 on: December 24, 2014, 03:53:37 PM »
Now we are seeing a big plunge in natural gas prices.  Like oil shale the gas shale fracking also suffers from a host of technical problems and high costs. And thusly has the same debt issues.  It appears the chickens are finally coming home to roost here.

Note that extremely low natural gas prices also have even more of the negatives for renewables than low oil prices.  This will deepen the bust in the oil and gas sector. 

Quote
As one private equity insider wrote in June, ironically just before oil priced peaked:

I have been digging underneath the surface (pun was not originally intended) of these let us call them fracking E&P companies and I was pretty surprised. Many of the bigger ones have not made money the last few years. Sitting in a bar over dinner I got to talking to a petroleum landman and he basically told me they have to keep drilling or if they stop they will not get started again (Red Queen effect). The reason is these wells deplete so quickly that the economics have been hidden by artificially high reserve reports. This whole process got started by someone telling me they had reserves worth $600 million but after long discussions I saw there financials and they were losing there ass even with full cost accounting which is the most aggressive.

Well worth a complete read.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/first-oil-now-us-natural-gas-plunges-negative-igniter-for-new-debt-crisis.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

jai mitchell

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #192 on: December 24, 2014, 05:57:39 PM »
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014

Heinberg on The Oil Price Crash of 2014

I'm a bit disappointed that he didn't talk about the possible impacts on renewables. I've heard some comments that it will hurt them, but that doesn't seem very likely to me, since they mostly (except for bio-ethonol) don't directly compete (EV's still being a relatively tiny part of the market, and petrol can't compete there anyway).

Thoughts?

Wili, you are exactly right and the CEO of SolarCity was on the t.v. stating basically the exact same.  The current cause of high electricity prices is due to stranded costs of power generation and distribution systems.  The increase in future electricity prices is based on repair/replacement of these systems and the increased price point needed to continue to pay back the utility's of the world for their previous investments as increased energy efficiency leads to lower energy intensity economies (KWh per unit GDP), as well as the implementation of private solar.

With less people paying into the pot, the utility's will get higher rates to ensure that their stranded costs are covered with a nice "reasonable" rate of return.

oil prices has nothing to do with this unless you live on a small tropical island.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #193 on: December 24, 2014, 06:01:40 PM »
Has anyone here considered that this response by the Saudis would naturally follow if they believed that global regulatory or market actions were going to lead to a substantial amount of proven reserves being left in the ground in the mid/near future?

Under that scenario, they would want to drive down prices to a point where they can maximize their total volume sales before the spigot is cut off.
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wili

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #194 on: December 24, 2014, 06:51:25 PM »
Thanks, all, for the discussion.

jai, in your last phrase, do you mean that the spigot will be cut off by peak oil or by restrictions on carbon-based fuels?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #195 on: December 24, 2014, 09:07:49 PM »
The most realistic explanation I've read is that the Saudis are willing to take a short term loss in order to force other producers to cut output and keep prices high in the long run.  Sell less for more means good profits and supply lasts longer.  There will be demand for oil far into the future, as industrial feedstock if nothing else.
--

Price drops in NG are likely to be short lived.  As winter sets in demand will take prices back up.  As we complete more shipping infrastructure US NG prices will rise to match global prices. 
--

Utilities are not likely to get big rate increases to cover stranded costs.  For the most part those are old coal plants which have already been written off (depreciated) and have no book value. 

Csnavywx

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #197 on: December 25, 2014, 05:45:34 PM »
With comments like these, you have to believe the Saudis know the game is over for oil, and they are moving on.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/23/news/economy/saudi-oil-minister-100-dollar-oil/index.html
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jai mitchell

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #198 on: December 25, 2014, 06:00:29 PM »
If the Saudis were approaching peak oil, they would want to allow oil prices to go up as high as possible and sell off their remaining stocks.

If the Saudis had lots of oil but believed that the effects of climate change were going to soon cause geopolitical restrictions (or even massive market-based restrictions or both!) on the consumption of oil, then they would want to drive out the higher priced supplies and sell off as much of their own stocks as possible while they can.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #199 on: December 25, 2014, 06:05:44 PM »

Quote
"It is not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is. Whether it goes down to $20 a barrel...is irrelevant."

I really don't understand that way of thinking.  Is he saying that the non-OPEC producers won't cooperate with OPEC so there's no way to control supply and boost price?