Bove et al. DOI: 10.1177/0022002714567952
"‘‘Oil above Water’’: Economic Interdependence and Third-party Intervention"
"We find that the likelihood of a third-party intervention increases when
(a) the country at war has large reserves of oil, (b) the relative competition in the sector
is limited, and (c) the potential intervener has a higher demand for oil."
" The United States for most of the period studied here provides an example at the high end of the oil dependence spectrum (i.e., high reserves, high demand for oil). Consistent with this, we see recurrent US involvements in the civil wars and internal affairs of Angola from 1975 until the end of the Cold War. The United States was the country with the highest demand for oil during this period, and it was known from the 1970s that Angola had oil reserves. Oil in Angola was first discovered in 1955, and many US corporations, like Chevron, have been operating in the oil-rich Cabinda region for more than 50 years. The United States has also intervened in a number of other countries with proven large oil reserves, such as in Guatemala, Indonesia, and the Philippines over the period covered by our data set (1945–1999)."
"The history of military interventions of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (and later the Russian Federation) is also consistent with the predictions implied by our oil-centered motivations for TPIs by oil-poor countries. Two notable military interventions in oil-rich countries took place in periods where the oil-production capacity of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was at its infancy, that is, Indonesia in 1958 and Nigeria (Biafran War) in 1967 to 1968. The 1973 oil crisis encouraged further Soviet intervention in oil-rich Iraq, despite the fact that USSR exports were growing. Interestingly, subsequent Russian military interventions have mostly been unrelated to the presence of oil, in line with the Russian Federation gradually becoming a major oil (and gas) exporter."
"Beyond Western military involvement in response to conflict, such as the intervention to roll back the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the United States also provides significant military aid and maintains troops in Persian Gulf oil producers, and the United States has a history of supporting conservative autocratic states in spite of the emphasis on democratic reform elsewhere. This military and political support is at least in part motivated to ensure that countries on the Arabian Peninsula maintain crude oil prices within a target range. The enduring record of geopolitical instability in oil-producing regions and the likely increase in the global demand for oil implies that economic incentives are likely to figure prominently in whether we see interventions in civil war. However, with a less energy-dependent United States and a more energy-dependent China, the specific states with the greatest incentives to intervene are likely to change notably in the future."
sidd