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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #500 on: May 15, 2015, 10:21:41 PM »
Quote
A native band in northern British Columbia has voted to reject a $1.15 billion (Canadian), 40-year payout from a consortium of Asian and North American energy companies that want to cross its land with a pipeline and build a liquefied natural gas terminal.
...
Garry Reece, mayor of the band’s village, said in a statement:  “Hopefully the public will recognize that unanimous consensus in communities (and where unanimity is the exception) against a project where those communities are offered in excess of a billion dollars, sends an unequivocal message this is not a money issue:  This is environmental and cultural.”
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/05/13/native-band-in-canada-rejects-1-15-billion-inducement-from-gas-pipeline-buildernatural/
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #501 on: May 16, 2015, 10:22:58 AM »
Saudi claims oil price strategy Success
http://on.ft.com/1FkSk2T

Quote
“There is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshore and heavy oils,” a Saudi official told the Financial Times in Riyadh, giving a rare insight into the kingdom’s thinking on oil strategy.
...
However, the Saudi official said he expected the kingdom to maintain its dominance of global energy, despite the growth of alternatives to fossil fuels and competition from rival oil producers within Opec and beyond. “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil,” he said. “We want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.”

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #502 on: May 17, 2015, 09:14:37 PM »
Why Did NY Ban Fracking? The Official Report Is Now Public
The massive study finds that health, safety and environmental uncertainties regarding fracking's dangers have 'grown worse over time.'
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15052015/why-did-ny-ban-fracking-official-report-now-public
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #503 on: May 18, 2015, 08:09:34 PM »
The Guardian:
"The real story behind Shell's climate change rhetoric

In the first of an investigative series into the fossil fuel giants from which we are calling on Gates and Wellcome Trust to divest, we reveal Shell’s pursuit of ever riskier reserves is at odds with its own forecasts for dangerous global warming."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/17/shell-climate-change-rhetoric-the-real-story
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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #504 on: May 20, 2015, 01:36:59 PM »
Pipeline Burst Along Santa Barbara Coast Spills Into 4-Mile Long Oil Slick
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/19/santa-barbara-oil-spill_n_7338418.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #505 on: May 21, 2015, 03:35:54 PM »
California oil spill probed as cleanup continues
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102698037
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #506 on: May 23, 2015, 12:04:48 AM »
Seattle, Washington: "Kayaktivists" Vs. A Massive Oil Rig: Inside Seattle’s Fight Against Shell’s Arctic Drilling Plans
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/21/3660630/kayaktivists-seattle-shell-continued-action/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #507 on: May 23, 2015, 12:08:40 AM »
Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency in California on Wednesday, after oil spill estimates soared from 21,000 gallons to more than 105,000 gallons.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/22/3661684/the-santa-barbara-oil-spill-is-awful/
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Polynya88

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #508 on: May 23, 2015, 12:55:50 AM »
Seattle, Washington: "Kayaktivists" Vs. A Massive Oil Rig: Inside Seattle’s Fight Against Shell’s Arctic Drilling Plans
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/21/3660630/kayaktivists-seattle-shell-continued-action/

The real irony in this event is that all the "activists" are in plastic/hydrocarbon-based Kayaks! Where are the wood or seal-skin Kayaks if they want to be purists and ride their anti-oil high horse...

jai mitchell

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #509 on: May 23, 2015, 05:08:18 AM »
you are correct to note that there is an environmental impact to all oil-derivative products.  We desperately need to be both effective in our communication and actions that help prevent the extraction and processing/combustion of fossil fuels as well as reduce our own personal impacts on the environment.

however, the avoided potential catastrophe in the arctic (think: deep horizon just before arctic re-freeze) compared to the environmental impact of manufacturing a plastic kayak is, well, incomparable.

unless you were joking, then:  deserved. . .

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #510 on: May 23, 2015, 04:48:45 PM »
Georgia DOT rejects the Kinder Morgan request for the Palmetto pipeline.
http://savannahnow.com/news/2015-05-19/dot-commissioner-rejects-palmetto-pipeline
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Polynya88

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #511 on: May 23, 2015, 06:12:31 PM »
you are correct to note that there is an environmental impact to all oil-derivative products.  We desperately need to be both effective in our communication and actions that help prevent the extraction and processing/combustion of fossil fuels as well as reduce our own personal impacts on the environment.

however, the avoided potential catastrophe in the arctic (think: deep horizon just before arctic re-freeze) compared to the environmental impact of manufacturing a plastic kayak is, well, incomparable.

unless you were joking, then:  deserved. . .




I am probably in the wrong forum here, as I support Arctic drilling, and  your response above supports it to my way of thinking as well.  The deepwater Horizon event was horrendous and severely affected 10s of thousands of people. However, in the absolute worst case (extremely unlikely) that something did happen when Shell drills in the Chukchi this summer, the results could affect, well a hundred or so subsistence hunters who would prefer to be given money to buy their food at the local co-op store anyhow (I have worked in the Beaufort/Alaskan Coast for 20 years doing ice research).  Oil extraction is a nasty business, but there aren't currently many viable energy alternatives, so if we have to do it (search for oil) shouldn't we be doing it in the Arctic (preferably at the north pole!) where it affects humanity the least? 

jai mitchell

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #512 on: May 23, 2015, 06:44:40 PM »
I am probably in the wrong forum here

yep, the first truthful thing you have said here so far.

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Bruce Steele

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #513 on: May 23, 2015, 09:19:41 PM »
I have fished as far north as the Norton Sound and biodiversity is much reduced the further north you get. IMO a large oil spill into any ocean that has limited biodiversity increases risk to ecosystem niche
membership that may be served by a single species. Again in my opinion , counting humans is a poor measure of environmental risk and those few places on this planet where we are few probably deserve
extra protection , not less. Protection from us ,not for us.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #514 on: May 23, 2015, 09:25:39 PM »
Quote
Oil extraction is a nasty business, but there aren't currently many viable energy alternatives, so if we have to do it (search for oil) shouldn't we be doing it in the Arctic (preferably at the north pole!) where it affects humanity the least?

No we don't have to do it.  That is nonsense.  We know the location of far more oil, gas and coal right now then we ever dare burn.  So there is no need for any oil exploration any where on earth.  And doing it in the sensitive waters of the arctic is just stupid stuff.  Oil exploration is just being pursued to pad some rich guys pocket.  Take all that money and spend it on something we actually need and some progress might actually happen.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #515 on: May 24, 2015, 12:04:03 AM »
Nigeria -- Africa's largest oil producer -- crippled by fuel shortages
http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/21/africa/nigeria-fuel-shortages/
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Sigmetnow

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #517 on: May 27, 2015, 07:48:42 PM »
Nick Stern: Shell is asking us to bet against the world on climate change.

Oil giant is wrong on climate policy and on the progress that will be made in renewables over next 20-30 years, says influential economist Nick Stern.

http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/may/27/stern-shell-is-asking-us-to-bet-against-the-world-on-climate-change
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #518 on: May 31, 2015, 02:30:43 AM »
Still wondering if you should divest from fossil fuel companies?
Quote
So far this year, Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) shareholders have seen their share prices decline 8.13% and 7.96%, respectively, making them the fifth and fourth worst performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A few possible catalysts for the decline are in oil and natural gas prices.
http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/typepad/RyNm/~3/8LGcsCbiq94/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #519 on: June 01, 2015, 01:17:15 AM »
Obama Explains Why He Approved Arctic Drilling In The Face Of Climate Concerns
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/28/3663715/obama-twitter-chat-arctic-drilling/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #520 on: June 03, 2015, 04:31:55 PM »
If Iran reaches a nuclear agreement and sanctions are lifted, the country will add 1 million barrels of oil a day to the already flooded oil market, threatening prices further.

What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-02/iran-s-million-barrel-conundrum-brings-battle-back-inside-opec
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #521 on: June 03, 2015, 10:17:31 PM »
Anti-tar sands march along banks of the Mississippi expected to draw thousands
Quote
ST. PAUL, Minnesota -- A busy week in the future of oil in America will culminate in the largest anti-tar sands event ever to take place in the Midwest on Saturday along the banks of the Mississippi River, organizers say.
http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/business/3758079-anti-tar-sands-march-along-banks-mississippi-expected-draw-thousands
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #522 on: June 04, 2015, 03:38:47 AM »
Why You Should Be Skeptical Of Big Oil Companies Asking For A Price On Carbon
Quote
BP, Statoil, and Total might be actively calling for a carbon tax, but the three biggest U.S. oil companies — ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips — aren’t. (ExxonMobil says they would prefer a carbon tax to a cap-and-trade system, but they don’t outright support it). And those U.S. companies are spending much more to influence Congress than the letter-writing companies on campaign donations and lobbying.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/03/3665618/oil-companies-want-carbon-price/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #523 on: June 04, 2015, 03:26:44 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #524 on: June 06, 2015, 02:45:22 PM »
Fracking Returns, but Denton Vows to Keep Fighting
Quote
Two weeks after Denton's fracking ban was rendered illegal by a sweeping new state law restricting local control of oil-and-gas activities, residents of the north Texas town are frustrated, upset and conflicted about how best to respond.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/05062015/fracking-returns-denton-vows-keep-fighting-texas-local-control-oil-gas-drilling-arrests
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #525 on: June 09, 2015, 01:21:46 AM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #526 on: June 09, 2015, 04:06:42 PM »
Exxon's Gamble: 25 Years of Rejecting Shareholder Concerns on Climate Change
Quote
For a quarter-century, stockholders have asked Exxon to confront the threat of climate change in all sorts of ways: by investing in renewable energy, cutting harmful emissions, providing carbon risk assessments and adding a board member with climate expertise. Year after year, the oil giant has said no, rejecting shareholders’ requests and downplaying their concerns long after scientists concluded that unfettered burning of fossil fuels is leading to catastrophic climate change. At Chevron and ConocoPhillips, executives have also routinely opposed climate-related shareholder resolutions.
http://books.insideclimatenews.org/exxonsclimategamble
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #527 on: June 13, 2015, 10:08:15 PM »
More Industry Linked Earthquakes Recorded in Alberta
http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/06/11/More-Fracking-Earthquakes/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #528 on: June 20, 2015, 03:37:46 AM »
Oil patch cities were the top U.S. growth areas, until recently.  Now, retirement communities head the list, as oil and gas hubs falter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/these-18-cities-will-see-the-most-economic-growth-next-year
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #529 on: June 20, 2015, 07:27:53 PM »
Oklahoma earthquakes:

Quote
@SPIAindex: Eight earthquakes since 10:00pm last night, all within 8 to 9 miles of Sperry Ranch near Guthrie, OK. Magnitudes have ranged from 2.8 to 3.6
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #530 on: June 21, 2015, 09:33:31 PM »
Near a Fracking Center, Drinking Water Has More Chemicals and Carcinogens
One of the largest analyses of water quality of aquifers near Texas fracking sites examined samples from 550 wells across the Barnett Shale near Dallas.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/19062015/near-fracking-center-drinking-water-has-more-chemicals-and-carcinogens-barnett-shale-texas-epa-oil-gas
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Laurent

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #531 on: June 28, 2015, 09:30:51 PM »
EPA authorizes Shell rig to discharge ‘waste streams’ into Alaska’s Chukchi Sea
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/06/15/epa-authorizes-shell-rig-to-discharge-waste-streams-into-chukchi-sea/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #532 on: July 01, 2015, 09:32:39 PM »
Obama Administration Deals Blow To Shell’s Arctic Drilling Plans
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/01/3675924/shell-arctic-drilling-marine-life/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #533 on: July 02, 2015, 03:21:29 AM »
In Oklahoma, Fracking Companies Can Now Be Sued Over Earthquakes
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/01/3676046/oklahoma-supreme-court-fracking-earthquakes/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #534 on: July 09, 2015, 12:56:20 AM »
Bloomberg, on why you should sell your oil stocks
(Interesting: electric vehicles are seen as enough of a threat to warrant a couple of mentions.)
 
Quote
It could get grimmer still. The Saudis just suggested  -- before retracting the statement -- that the era of fossil fuels might end in the middle of this century. Suppose they actually believe it -- and even hedge against it? Suppose the Kingdom tries to sell off its oil before the price collapses.  What would that do to the market for Shell’s costly Arctic drilling? For the complex, dirty extraction of Canadian tar sands? Ultra-deep Brazilian pre-salt wells in the South Atlantic? Even some of the more expensive U.S. shale wells?
"Divestment from oil may be a moral cause for some investors. Others -- those seeking profit over the long term especially -- might want to follow suit simply to save their shirts."

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-08/why-you-should-short-public-oil-companies
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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #535 on: July 09, 2015, 05:33:51 AM »
"Suppose the Kingdom tries to sell off its oil before the price collapses. "

That is exactly what they are doing. I read the work of Tsakolotos (new finance minister for Greece) on the first mover advantage in currency trade breakdowns and see a parallel.

sidd

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #536 on: July 09, 2015, 05:43:40 PM »
Exxon internal docs from 1981 detail knowledge of climate change.

They even decided then not to drill one field because it was thought too dangerous because of its CO2 content.  So they beat Hanson by a few years?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/08/exxon-climate-change-1981-climate-denier-funding
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #537 on: July 09, 2015, 11:45:49 PM »
Hello JimD. Does this mean you are back at last?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #538 on: July 11, 2015, 01:27:40 AM »
IEA Says Oil Prices May Fall Even Further Before Supply Fades in 2016
Quote
“Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to grind to a halt in 2016 as lower oil prices and spending cuts take a toll.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-10/iea-says-oil-price-may-fall-further-before-supply-fades-in-2016
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #539 on: July 12, 2015, 01:30:28 AM »
Netherlands bans fracking for five years.
Quote
@billmckibben: Wow! Dutch ban #fracking for 5 years (and by 2020 #fracking, tarsands, will seem delusional) https://t.co/XvwtN7FnHe http://t.co/fZtxsKpTdR
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/619970892970463232


Reuters:  Dutch government bans shale gas drilling for 5 years
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/10/netherlands-energy-shale-idUSL8N0ZQ2S720150710
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #540 on: July 16, 2015, 11:52:30 PM »
77 years after seizing private oil and gas assets, Mexico attempts to entice back foreign investment and increase the country's slumping production by auctioning offshore oil blocks.  The results were "disappointing": only two of 14 blocks sold, and the major energy companies did not even participate.  Reasons?  Current low oil price, location of the blocks, and low probability of commercial success.

"Some companies have said they worry about provisions that allow the government to cancel contracts in cases of industrial accidents or spills."

Oil majors shun Mexico auction with just two blocks sold
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2015/7/15/oil-majors-shun-mexico-auction-with-just-two-blocks-sold

Mexico Auctions Oil Blocks in Attempt to Increase Production
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/16/business/international/mexico-auctions-oil-blocks-in-attempt-to-increase-production.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #541 on: July 17, 2015, 12:17:37 AM »
It looks like the Iran Nuclear Agreement is driving crude oil prices down (which should increase global consumption):

http://marketrealist.com/2015/07/crude-oil-prices-fall-despite-declining-inventories/

Extract: "The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly crude oil inventory report on July 14, 2015. The government data showed that US oil stockpiles fell by 4.3 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ended July 10, 2015. Despite declining US inventories, the crude oil market was overshadowed by long-term oversupply concerns. As a result, oil prices declined. The massive Iranian oil inventories of 20 MMbbls also pressured crude oil prices."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #542 on: July 19, 2015, 03:08:29 PM »
What's Killing the Babies of Vernal, Utah?
A fracking boomtown, a spike in stillborn deaths and a gusher of unanswered questions
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/fracking-whats-killing-the-babies-of-vernal-utah-20150622
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #543 on: July 20, 2015, 04:08:56 PM »
Yet its stock and earnings still go up. ???

Quote
Halliburton has seen sales fall 39 percent in the U.S. and Canada where the industry has reduced the number of operating drilling rigs by more than half. Explorers have cut more than $100 billion from global spending plans for the year after oil prices fell by half from a high in June 2014.
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NRLF616S972E01-2DB7M0SANSRUIGCCBD3LD84DPR
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #544 on: July 23, 2015, 08:18:19 PM »
Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years
There's only one thing holding back a price rebound. It's a big thing.
Quote
Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons with the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned—but definitely no worse.

This week, a revision: It could be much worse.
Because?  You guessed it: Supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years
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anotheramethyst

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #545 on: July 24, 2015, 08:16:24 PM »
Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years
There's only one thing holding back a price rebound. It's a big thing.
Quote
Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons with the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned—but definitely no worse.

This week, a revision: It could be much worse.
Because?  You guessed it: Supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years

i know a couple people here at the asif came from the oil drum after it closed its virtual doors.  i used to lurk there on occasion.  i'd love to hear their opinion on this, since their speculations are probably far more accurate than mine.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #546 on: July 25, 2015, 10:34:37 PM »
Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years
There's only one thing holding back a price rebound. It's a big thing.
Quote
Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons with the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned—but definitely no worse.

This week, a revision: It could be much worse.
Because?  You guessed it: Supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years

i know a couple people here at the asif came from the oil drum after it closed its virtual doors.  i used to lurk there on occasion.  i'd love to hear their opinion on this, since their speculations are probably far more accurate than mine.

Well willi and I were on TOD back in 2005 so I guess you mean us.  Besides TOD I have hung around the Peakoil.com website since that time frame also, as well as some actual oil business experience and many friends and family who are still in the business.  I have some depth but would not consider myself a 'real' expert on all aspects of the oil business.

To get the one thing clear which always pops up when TOD or Peak Oil is mentioned.  By the generally accepted definition of peak oil, as was used by most commentors on TOD, Peak Oil was correctly predicted and did happen.  Nothing which is occurring in the production and supply of oil today negates that point.  While traditional oil production did peak there was never going to be this great crash which many glommed onto - there are always crashistas like there were about peak oil just as there are about sea ice, methane, etc.  The folks who really understood the business knew about non-conventional supplies and the techniques which could be used to get at those supplies.  This huge ramp up of non-conventional production is what has generated the situation we have today.  That plus a host of geo-political situations which have impacted which countries are able to produce - think Libya, Iraq, Iran, etc.

To the gist of the article about prices going very low and staying down for some time.  I have actually posted here about that very issue a number of times.  The big surge in non-conventional production which has pushed the Canadian and the US production numbers so high was always a very fragile situation as it is very expensive oil to produce.  If we had not had the peaking of conventional production and the surge in demand which drove prices so high much of this non-conventional production would have not happened.  There would have been no profit in it.  But prices did go high and free money became available due to central bank responses to the great financial crisis.  So off we went.  The result was a huge ramp up in production.  But unbeknownst to most was that much of this non-conventional production was never profitable in a traditional sense.  With current prices almost none of it is making a profit.  The way most of the fracking companies made money in this game was stock fluffing.  Hit a well and trumpet new reserves and the stock jumps.  All the insiders sell a bunch of stock and make millions.  They know that cash flow is not covering costs and that depletion rates are horrible.  But this game can be played forever as long as prices are high enough and loans are essentially free.

But we finally reach the point that supply is just too far over demand and prices start down.  The Saudi's decided that they have had enough with carrying everyone and contrary to expectation and US political pressure they decide to stop acting like patsies and more like John D. Rockefeller - they go all capitalist on us the bastards.  They don't cut production - but ramp it up even higher.  Run the high cost producers out of business - that being all the fracking companies and the tar sands producers.  All it takes is time to wait out the hedged production contracts and wait for borrowing costs to rise.  Loan rates will shoot up and limits will be lowered by the banks since the low crude prices result in much lower valuations for those reserves which were generating all the stock windfalls.  These valuations are set 2 times a year - next in Oct I believe.  Come Oct if prices are still where they are now or quite a bit lower many loans will be cut off and another large percentage of the fracking companies will go bankrupt.  The blood will continue to flow for at least a year or more still.  Maybe longer depending on overseas developments.

Should Iran actually get the sanctions lifted and be able to produce and sell significant amounts of their oil on the market they can produce at least as much as the frackers were.  I am pretty sure that a significant percentage of the high resistance to the Iran deal from the Republicans in the US is more related to Iran ramping up production than the nuclear issue.  Many of these folks are bought and sold by the fossil fuel industry and they do not want Iran being able to add oil to the markets as it guarantees many of the US firms will go broke and employment in their states will suffer.

The frackers who are still in business will produce as much as they can to get the maximum cash flow as cash flow keeps their heads above water.  But the tide is running against them and if the current situation of a global surplus can be maintained they will all eventually die.

Eventually enough expensive production will disappear that prices will once again start rising.  And one could expect them to go pretty high eventually.  I would expect that to happen when the global economy builds following the current downturn which is gathering steam right now.  It could easily be years before that happens and prices could easily go much lower than they are.  But there is no guarantee as global events can always change those dynamics.  Israel could attack the Iranians, Iraqi production could by hit by a negative turn in the situation there, Saudi could find itself dealing with its own internal issues, and so on.  It is very complicated stuff and it is always pretty clear what just happened when one looks back but if one can lock down general trends going forward they are doing pretty good.

All a kind of side show even if it is very interesting, since if we were doing it right we would not be doing any more exploration for any fossil fuels as we know where more of the damn stuff is than we ever dare burn.  And we would be shutting down the use of fossil fuels so fast that there would, for the duration, be way more available than we would allow demand to be.  No more burning coal, get rid of cars, all that stuff we will not be willing to do for a few decades more.  Because we're just stupid as a general rule.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

anotheramethyst

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #547 on: July 27, 2015, 11:15:49 AM »
thanks, JimD!!! thats exactly the level of detail i was hoping for :)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #548 on: July 27, 2015, 07:16:03 PM »
.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #549 on: July 28, 2015, 05:36:33 PM »
One Simple Chart That Shows the Problem Facing Big Oil
Quote
Oil giant BP Plc's second-quarter profit reported this morning missed analyst estimates.

The investor presentation accompanying the earnings call following the results announcement contains one chart that highlights the difficulties faced by BP Plc as cash flow dries up.

Disposals (selling off assets) and underlying cash flow did not cover capex and dividends in the first half of 2015.

It should come as no surprise that BP CEO Bob Dudley spent a good chunk of the call with analysts highlighting how BP is going to cut costs and sell more assets. BP said it will invest "less than" $20 billion this year in projects, rather the "more than" $20 billion it said three months ago.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/one-simple-chart-that-shows-the-problem-facing-big-oil
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.