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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #550 on: July 28, 2015, 06:02:42 PM »
Ahh we see some sign of capitulation.

Quote
With oil prices hitting their lowest levels since March, a renewed sense of gloom has washed over oil markets, and with it, fears over deeper trouble for U.S. shale companies are spreading.

After hitting $43 per barrel in March, oil prices jumped to $60 per barrel by May and then stayed around that level for almost two months, raising confidence that a rebound was underway, albeit at a slow pace.......

But the optimism is a thing of the past. WTI dipped below $48 per barrel on July 27, not far from the March lows. The low oil prices will likely force a fresh round of layoffs across the shale patch. Halliburton and Baker Hughes have eliminated 27,000 jobs combined, twice as much as they originally announced in February, according to the Wall Street Journal. Months ago job cuts were centered on rig workers and other blue-collar jobs at drilling sites, but now the layoffs are moving up the food chain, hitting engineers and scientists. Usually that is something companies try hard to avoid, for fear of losing irreplaceable talent......

Quote
...With hedging positions expiring, more companies will lose their protection and suffer from low prices. And unlike earlier this year when banks and equity markets were eager to provide cash injections into battered shale companies, betting on a rebound, financial lifelines are not as generous or as accessible as they were just a few months ago. New loans are coming with onerous interest rates. For some of the weakest companies, access to credit could soon be cut off entirely.....

It is not just the US by the way which is getting hammered by this, Russia is going to have big budget problems.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Pessimism-Amongst-Oil-Traders-Reaches-5-Year-High.html
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #551 on: July 29, 2015, 10:08:20 PM »
Quote
@EricHolthaus: Due to low oil prices, Canada tar sand exploration ‘on hold until 2017′
http://t.co/5x3Bl7pfrL
KeystoneXL irrelevant. http://t.co/1QAmGZ6YW7
Canada tar sand exploration ‘on hold until 2017′
High cost, high carbon source of oil is hit by low oil prices, analysts say, with 5.6bn barrels worth of projects shelved
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/28/canada-tar-sand-exploration-on-hold-until-2017/#.dpuf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #552 on: August 02, 2015, 02:25:33 AM »
Chevron Slumps as Q2 Earnings Plunge on Weak Oil Prices
Production was up, but:
Quote
... gains on the production front could not make up for the sharp downfall in oil prices, the net effect resulting in a huge loss for the upstream segment – at $2,219 billion.
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/184498/chevron-slumps-as-q2-earnings-plunge-on-weak-oil-prices
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #553 on: August 04, 2015, 10:44:08 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #554 on: August 07, 2015, 09:50:26 PM »
Quote
The fossil-fuel industry has become the black sheep of the U.S. economy: it’s the only one shedding jobs.

Oil producers, struggling with the lowest prices in six years, have slashed 78,000 jobs through the first seven months of 2015. That wipes out all of the job gains from 2012 to 2014.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-only-major-us-industry-cutting-jobs-2015-08-07
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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #555 on: August 08, 2015, 04:24:27 PM »
The Great Unwind Has Begun, Bankruptcies Soar

Quote
....Already, corporate Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings in July have soared 77% year-over-year, to 637 filings, the most in nearly three years, the Wall Street Journal reported,

....The largest bankruptcies in July, according to Bankruptcy Data, included:

Coal producer and mining operator Alpha Natural Resources, with $10.7 billion in pre-petition assets.
Coal producer and exporter Walter Energy with $5.4 billion in pre-petition assets. Both followed the bankruptcy filing of Patriot Coal in May, its second in three years.
Oil and gas producer Sabine Oil & Gas, with $ 2.4 billion in pre-petition assets.
Oil and gas producer Milagro Oil & Gas, with $390 million in pre-petition assets.
The rest in July were smaller.

A word about the harmonious relationship between coal and natural gas: Coal as a fuel for electricity generation has been ravaged for years by the low price of natural gas and by a technological innovation, the rise of highly efficient combined-cycle natural-gas turbines that can be used for base and peak power. At the current low price of natural gas, prevailing more or less since the Financial Crisis, coal doesn’t have a chance.

Neither does natural gas. The price has been so ruinously low that specialized natural gas producers are approaching bankruptcy or have already filed.

But it wasn’t all about energy. According to Fitch, in the first half of the year, companies in energy, metals (another brutalized sector), and mining accounted for 57% of the defaults. The rest were all over the place.....

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/07/the-great-unwind-has-begun-bankruptcies-soar/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #556 on: August 09, 2015, 04:38:53 PM »
Landmark Paper Underestimated Methane Leaks from Gas Production, Study Says
Since 2003, a commonly used methane detector has been underestimating leak rates that feed into the national greenhouse gas registry.
Quote
Under certain conditions—especially with low-methane natural gas—the second sensor failed to kick in, so the instrument only registered a small leak even if the actual leak rate was much higher. At one point, two separate Bacharach samplers tested by Howard and Ferrara recorded natural gas concentrations in the air of 1 to 6 percent, when the actual concentrations were between 7 and 73 percent.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/04082015/landmark-paper-underestimated-methane-leaks-gas-production-study-says
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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #557 on: August 10, 2015, 09:54:31 PM »
This is how serious Saudi Arabia is about crushing the high cost producers.  They are sticking with over production even though it is forcing them to issue debt to maintain their federal budget.  That is commitment I think. 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/oil-price-slump-pushes-saudi-arabia-to-fund-raise-with-us53b-bonds-sale-20150809-giv88n.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #558 on: August 11, 2015, 07:13:25 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #559 on: August 11, 2015, 08:24:19 PM »
A couple posts up there is a link about how the Saudi's are doubling down on their effort to gain market share and crush the high cost producers.

Well it looks like the US fracking industry is also doubling down.  With money getting tighter and tighter now we are seeing the big oil field service companies becoming the lender of last resort. 

Deep desperation.  This could go so wrong.  The phrase "Don't try to catch a falling knife." comes to mind.

Quote
...Schlumberger and Halliburton, the two largest service firms, have offered operators the option to “frack now and pay later.” According to Reuters, the new offer amounts to the service firms acting as lenders to oil companies.

Halliburton saw its profit for the second quarter fall by more than a half billion dollars from a year before, and backed by $500 million in cash from asset manager BlackRock, Halliburton is looking “at additional ways of doing business with our customers,” Halliburton’s CEO Dave Lesar said recently.

The “frack now pay later” model that Reuters described consists of companies like Halliburton or Schlumberger covering the cost of drilling a well in exchange for a portion of the well’s production....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Frack-Now-Pay-Later-A-New-Era-In-US-Oil.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #560 on: August 12, 2015, 05:53:07 PM »
Green with gas: Oil majors eye UN climate deal
Quote
Six majors have already offered to work with the UN ahead of the Paris summit, writing a letter to its head climate official Christiana Figueres asking for a place at the negotiating table

In return she asked to see their solutions.

So far the companies have made vague pledges to reduce emissions from production plants, curb methane releases and invest in energy efficiency.

But their main play is to push for a global carbon price.

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/08/11/green-with-gas-oil-majors-eye-un-climate-deal/#.dpuf
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SATire

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #561 on: August 12, 2015, 06:34:26 PM »
A couple posts up there is a link about how the Saudi's are doubling down on their effort to gain market share and crush the high cost producers.

Well it looks like the US fracking industry is also doubling down.  With money getting tighter and tighter now we are seeing the big oil field service companies becoming the lender of last resort. 

Deep desperation.  This could go so wrong.  The phrase "Don't try to catch a falling knife." comes to mind.

Quote
...The “frack now pay later” model that Reuters described consists of companies like Halliburton or Schlumberger covering the cost of drilling a well in exchange for a portion of the well’s production....

This concept is making me so angry. They leverage everything multiple times into the future or to other poor people far away. There are way to many ill financial concepts today:
* drill now and pay later
* debt results in the need for cash flow. The cheaper the oil the more you spill out. Could that really help to bring prices up again or any benefit?
* then they'll go default and the lunch must be paid by other people (e.g. rescue a bank or two...)
* Since the people do not want to spend the money, the nation makes some debt

So a few people are now running away with a lot of money they did not work for and your children will have to
* pay back the stolen money 3 fold plus some fantasy interest rate
* life in an AGW world a bit earlier
* not burn any oil/carbon/... anymore
* produce char coal but can not use it because they must bury it to remove the CO2 from sea/atmosphere...

Shouldn't we change some rules today? Since in USA actually most of the produced oil is also consumed in the same nation there should be zero effect of any changing oil price. The current loss of the oil-producers is the gain of the consumers - so you may cancel all effects by adjusting 2 tax rates. If there only were no "financial industry" sucking like mosquito from real working people...

edit: Please understand me right - I am not a fracking fan-boy. Instead I am on the side of the Saudis: The last few tons of oil we may burn should be high EROEI (energy return on energy invested) to minimize CO2. So they should kick out all the dirty oil producers now, spill their easy stuff some more time and then it shall be "oil over" for everybody in the world (just dreaming...).
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 06:50:57 PM by SATire »

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #562 on: August 12, 2015, 10:12:25 PM »
SATire

I sympathize. Unfortunately we live in a system which is less than rational and the oil/fossil fuel business is perhaps the least rational part of all.

While changing oil/fuel taxes, as has been done in Europe, would of course be a good idea here in the US there is zero chance of it happening.  Political suicide for any contemplating it.

Interestingly we are now seeing a big spike in global crude supplies.  The already over supplied market is now seeing some drops in consumption due to the large number of countries experiencing slowing economic conditions.  Since all the producers are going at it full steam and waiting for the other guy to blink we are on the cusp of a big drop in price.  If no one really blinks and I do not think they will for a while yet.  Thus our low crude prices could see a big drop very soon.  Low $30's perhaps.  That would result in some interesting chaos.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #563 on: August 13, 2015, 12:49:37 PM »
SATire

I sympathize. Unfortunately we live in a system which is less than rational and the oil/fossil fuel business is perhaps the least rational part of all.

While changing oil/fuel taxes, as has been done in Europe, would of course be a good idea here in the US there is zero chance of it happening.  Political suicide for any contemplating it.

Interestingly we are now seeing a big spike in global crude supplies.  The already over supplied market is now seeing some drops in consumption due to the large number of countries experiencing slowing economic conditions.  Since all the producers are going at it full steam and waiting for the other guy to blink we are on the cusp of a big drop in price.  If no one really blinks and I do not think they will for a while yet.  Thus our low crude prices could see a big drop very soon.  Low $30's perhaps.  That would result in some interesting chaos.

I'm not familiar enough with US politics, but generally the time to put in some fuel tax is whern prices are dropping. If gas is going down form $3/gallon to $2/gallon, would the consumer "notice" a 10c/gallon surtax? I know it's not going to do much, but would even something like that be poilical suicide?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #564 on: August 13, 2015, 01:54:25 PM »
Quote
... would even something like that be political suicide?
Yes!  Gerrymandered voting districts make representatives (politicians) beholden to relatively extreme points-of-view.  The "all taxes are evil" perspective is dominant these days.  A U.S. President who campaigned "No new taxes!" about 30 years ago and then raised a tax is still being condemned by his own political party.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 02:18:57 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #565 on: August 13, 2015, 04:47:34 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

SATire

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #566 on: August 13, 2015, 06:52:49 PM »
Nice. So they have found a direct way around that strange U.S. tax issue to fix the problem... Just assuming that "beyond petroleum" is also spilling fracking oil and now cancelling the oil price drop on its own...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #567 on: August 14, 2015, 02:15:12 AM »
Big Oil in Retreat   

Quote
With ever more oil entering the market and a future seeded with yet more of the same, only an unlikely major boost in demand could halt a further price drop.  Although American consumers are driving more and buying bigger vehicles in response to lower gas prices, Europe shows few signs of recovery from its present austerity moment, and China, following a catastrophic stock market contraction in June, is in no position to take up the slack.  Put it all together and the prognosis seems inescapable: low oil prices for the foreseeable future.
...
Woe, then, to the $100 barrel of oil, since [China's] economy has been cooling off since 2014 and its growth is projected to fall below 7% this year, the lowest rate in decades.  This means, in turn, less demand for extra oil.  China’s consumption rose only 300,000 barrels per day in 2014 and is expected to remain sluggish for years to come.  “[T]he likelihood now is that import growth will be minimal for the next two or three years,” energy expert Nick Butler of the Financial Times observed.  “That in turn will compound and extend the existing surplus of supply over demand.”

Finally, don’t forget the Paris climate summit this December.  Although no one yet knows what, if anything, it will accomplish, dozens of countries have already submitted preliminary plans for the steps they will pledge to take to reduce their carbon emissions.  These include, for example, tax breaks and other incentives for those acquiring hybrid and electric-powered cars, along with increased taxes on oil and other forms of carbon consumption.  Should such measures begin to kick in, demand for oil will take another hit and conceivably its use will actually drop years before supplies become scarce.
...
Most of us are used to following the ups and downs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a shorthand gauge for the state of the world economy.  However, following the ups and downs of the price of Brent crude may, in the end, tell us far more about world affairs on our endangered planet.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176035/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #568 on: August 18, 2015, 10:02:00 PM »
How The EPA Plans To Cut Methane Emissions From Oil And Gas Wells
Quote
Tuesday’s proposed action focuses on new hydraulically fracked oil and gas wells.
...It would also extend the requirements farther downstream from the oil and gas extraction sites, meaning that leaks along the transmission infrastructure would be reduced. Operators would be required to find and repair leaks under the proposal.
...
The new rule comes days after the EPA announced a proposal to tackle methane emissions from your local dump. On Friday, the administration proposed new updated regulations on landfills to cut methane emissions caused by decaying organic matter in landfills by almost a third.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/18/3692669/new-methane-rule/
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P-maker

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #569 on: August 20, 2015, 12:01:59 AM »
French multi-national Total yesterday threw in the white towel:

http://www.thelocal.dk/20150818/denmarks-first-potential-fracking-project-dropped

This may be the end of fracking in Europe.

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Clare

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #570 on: August 20, 2015, 09:05:39 AM »
from New Zealand - Northland iwi face Statoil over oil drilling plans
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/element-magazine/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503340&objectid=11497824

"Three Māori activists enter a palatial-looking building in Stavanger, Norway. Inside, in a high-tech auditorium, on a broad, sleek stage, sit the chief executives of one of the world's largest oil and gas companies.

It's a familiar David and Goliath story: indigenous activists staring down a multinational oil corporation that wants to drill in their territory.

But this time, the oil executives have to listen. Greenpeace holds token shares in the oil company, guaranteeing the Māori delegation the right to speak at Statoil's annual shareholder meeting.

Addressing the auditorium, Mike Smith (Ngāpuhi, Ngāti Kahu) speaks calmly and clearly. He announces that he has been sent as a representative of Māori tribes, and tells the board in no uncertain terms: "You don't have permission to be in our tribal waters." He warns that the tribes will go to the United Nations to seek protection.................."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #571 on: August 20, 2015, 09:30:20 PM »
Oklahoma Has Had More Earthquakes So Far In 2015 Than It Did In All Of 2014
Quote
A little over eight months into the year, Oklahoma has broken a new yearly record for earthquakes.

The state recorded its 587th earthquake of 3.0 magnitude or higher early this week, breaking the previous record of 585. That record was set for all of 2014, meaning that Oklahoma has now had more 3.0 magnitude or higher earthquakes so far in 2015 than it did in all of 2014. So far this year, E&E News reports, Oklahoma’s averaged 2.5 quakes each day, a rate that, if it continues, means the state could see more than 912 earthquakes by the end of this year.

Oklahoma has also experienced 21 4.0 magnitude or greater earthquakes so far this year — an increase over last year, which saw 14.

Last year, Oklahoma was the most seismically active state in the lower 48 U.S. states. Its 585 quakes were a major spike from the year before, which saw around 100 earthquakes. In 2014, the state had already surpassed its 2013 record by April.
...
The injection of fracking wastewater has been confirmed as a possible earthquake trigger by the U.S. Geological Survey, and according to the agency, earthquakes linked to fracking are on the rise in the U.S.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/20/3693448/oklahoma-earthquakes-2015-record/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #572 on: August 20, 2015, 10:08:41 PM »
Quote
@insideclimate: Problem for pipelines:Sinking land amid aquifer depletion, creating fissures, erratic underground shifts. @SNLEnergy  http://t.co/TcrTT9wtfJ
https://twitter.com/insideclimate/status/634424650089402368
Sink, fissure and flood: West's water issues challenge pipelines
https://www.snl.com/MobileX/UI/Pages/News/Article.aspx?cdid=A-33579476-10028
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #573 on: August 21, 2015, 02:12:22 AM »
Crude Hits 6-Year Low, Stocks Crash & Oil Supplies Rise
Quote
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed that crude stockpiles rose unexpectedly. The report further revealed that within the ‘refined products’ category, gasoline stocks fell, while distillate supplies were up from the week-ago level.

Following the bearish data from the U.S. government, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures tumbled 4.3% to settle at $40.80 per barrel Wednesday, the lowest since Mar 2009.
http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/187145/crude-hits-6-year-low-stocks-crash-oil-supplies-rise
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #574 on: August 21, 2015, 02:25:07 AM »
US crude oil's break-even cost: How low can it go?
"I think we're going to test those break-evens at every play across the country," says one energy research analyst.
Quote
U.S. crude threatened to break below $40 per barrel for the first time since early 2009 this week, raising fresh fears about the cost of producing crude in America's oil patch—or perhaps "patches" is the better term.

Perhaps the only fall in the energy complex as spectacular has been the break-even cost to U.S. drillers of producing a barrel of oil.

Those costs vary widely across the country's shale fields—from Texas' prolific Permian Basin to the Northeast's gassy Marcellus Shale—but productivity gains have helped producers continue pumping. However, with many analysts now expecting U.S. crude to fall into the $30s, the question is how low can prices go before producers turn off the tap.

It's still cost-effective down to prices of $10 per barrel to maintain many existing wells across the United States, which is why drillers have not shut in production. But producers face a significantly higher bar when it comes to authorizing new production, because the cost of drilling and finishing a well accounts for the lion's share of lifetime costs.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/us-crude-oils-break-even-cost-how-low-can-it-go.html
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #575 on: August 21, 2015, 02:16:34 PM »
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again

Yes....it will be interesting when oil gets down to $20.  You think politics is bad now....wait till oil is in the $20's.

Oil companies will be screaming that they should be drilling all that they can....and people who understand global warming will be saying NO F$$$ING WAY.

Hopefully we'll make the right choice.
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crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #576 on: August 21, 2015, 03:44:25 PM »
...wait till oil is in the $20's.

Oil companies will be screaming that they should be drilling all that they can

Umm, no. With oil at that price they won't want to drill - it is just too costly to justify.

Everyone is ramping up production from existing wells to keep the cash flow going. It will be interesting to see how long that can last.

There will be a period, couple of years?, with little drilling. Low costs allow low prices to continue and perhaps fall further as high cost producers try to wait it out hoping for a miracle to save them.

However at some point old wells start to run dry and production will fall due to lack of investment.

Scenario 1. Production could start to fall due to lack of new wells and with little investment in drilling, prices could shoot upwards. People will then certainly want to drill but there will still be a period of high prices as it takes a while to drill and get production going. So upward price spike as problems unravel.

Scenario 2. Saudi as low cost producer can just keep pumping more oil as they gain market share. Oil prices stay low enough to keep higher cost competitors out of market.

Scenario 3. Saudi cannot continue to keep increasing production at low cost adequately but maybe the industry is smart enough (and has access to finance as required and where sensible) to start drilling just before production starts to fall and avoid such problems. Oil prices climb back up a bit but does so quite smoothly.

I cannot see enough investment in renewables and energy efficiency measures being possible to avoid sharp spike in scenario 1 even if that is the current route. A combination of scenarios 2 and 3 seems more plausible than scenario 1 anyway.

For the Saudis, a long time at $35 seems more beneficial than a short period at $20 so I cannot see Saudis pushing the price as low as $20 as a short period won't do the job, companies will try to hang on through a short period.

I think it would take a big drop in demand probably from global recession to cause such low prices as I doubt production can be ramped up much more without significant investment which won't happen at current prices.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #577 on: August 21, 2015, 06:52:48 PM »
Additional points to add to Crandles list.

Iraq has boosted production significantly and will want to keep it up regardless of what the Saudis do.  This will help to keep prices low.

Iran will dramatically boost production if sanctions are lifted.  Trying to stop this is one of the big factors in the resistance to the Iran deal by US conservatives as they are bought and sold by the oil industry.  Any Iranian production will push prices down.

As the China and much of the rest of the globe go into big economic slowdowns or recessions this will push demand down in those countries which will boost supply and push prices down.

There is potential for Libya to increase production if the civil war there settles out.

At least us Americans are trying to boost consumption by buying vast quantities of big vehicles (snark).

Not that it is not possible to hit $20 bbl oil.  But I would be surprised if it went that low and if it did I doubt it would stay low like that for very long.  $30  bbl is very possible.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #578 on: August 21, 2015, 08:59:03 PM »
Current WTI hit $39.86 and futures hit $40.45 today.

US markets fell like a stone.  China way down and commodities falling hard.

Getting interesting.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/21/us-markets-global-growth.html
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #579 on: August 22, 2015, 03:24:13 PM »
Quote
...wait till oil is in the $20's.

Quote
Umm, no. With oil at that price they won't want to drill - it is just too costly to justify.

Yee of little faith.  The price of oil WILL move into the $20's ($20 - $29).  That is only a little more than 25% from here.  Is it going to move into the low $20's...mid $20's...or high $20's?  I have no idea.  But unless Saudi Arabia cuts back soon....the price will definitely get into the $20's.

You see....there are too many companies in the US that are pumping out oil who have MARGINAL COSTS LESS THAN THE CURRENT PRICE OF OIL.

It isn't TOTAL COST that you need to look at now...its MARGINAL COST.  As long as they can sell oil above their marginal cost to pump more oil....they will.  They have too much debt on their balance sheets to service.  They have note payables and bond obligations they HAVE TO MEET EACH month.  They have no choice.

There will CERTAINLY be a large pull back in "cap ex" (capital expenditures) by the oil companies in FUTURE well drilling.  But any wells they have now.....where their marginal cost is less than the price they get for oil....they will be pumping.

Saudi Arabia holds ALL THE CARDS right now.  In previous years.....the Saudi's would cut back THEIR production of oil to maintain a higher market price.  This time....the Saudi's are NOT doing that.  They are producing more oil than they ever have.

The Saudi's have "deep pockets"....and have HUGE financial reserves they can tap into for several YEARS.  The Saudi's are going to push most of the "marginal players" (ie the small to intermediate sized companies) into bankruptcy.

You will see oil in the $20's WITHIN the next 12 months (it could be a LOT faster than 12 months).

You're gong to see the O & G industry go through more consolidation over the coming decade as oil and gas continues on its "death slide".  It will be MANY decades until we don't use oil and gas at all (is it 5 decades....10 decades...?).  But the path is now crystal clear.

A company like the large French oil company Total....saw this coming YEARS AGO.  They bought 50% of Sunpower (US solar company) three or four years ago.  Total also has come out and said THEY WILL NEVER DRILL IN THE ARCTIC.  They "get it."

Large pension funds will continue to divest from oil and gas companies over the next 5 - 10 years and the "run for the door" will become a stampede.  Exxon will never EVER see $100 a share in its stock.  It will see $30 a share within 3 or 4 years.

Remember....oil and gas prices are set by the "bid"...not the "ask".  As in all the markets...the BUYER sets the ACTUAL PRICE that something sells for....not the seller.


     
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crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #580 on: August 22, 2015, 03:56:09 PM »
Remember....oil and gas prices are set by the "bid"...not the "ask".  As in all the markets...the BUYER sets the ACTUAL PRICE that something sells for....not the seller.

Thats why gas sells for $0.01 a gallon. </sarc>

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #581 on: August 22, 2015, 04:17:25 PM »
Timely article on Saudi oil versus their economy:

How Much Longer Can Saudi Arabia's Economy Hold Out Against Cheap Oil?
Saudi Arabia got lucky when the oil price fell in 1998. What about now?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-21/how-much-longer-can-saudi-arabia-s-economy-hold-out-against-cheap-oil-
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #582 on: August 22, 2015, 04:20:04 PM »
I'll bet the Koch Brothers and other O&G players are THRILLED with solar in Texas..... ;D

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/21/the-weekend-wonk-newest-texas-energy-boom-is-solar/
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JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #583 on: August 23, 2015, 12:03:39 AM »
Buddy

I am on board with all you said above and have actually written almost all of it in previous posts in this thread.   But Crandles points largely stand as well.

You may be right about where the price goes.  I don't think it will go that low but like I said

Quote
Not that it is not possible to hit $20 bbl oil.  But I would be surprised if it went that low and if it did I doubt it would stay low like that for very long.  $30  bbl is very possible.

There are a host of forces counteracting all of the points we agree on.  Very large numbers of companies are going to go belly up and most likely a few governments.  The USG is going to get involved in this situation and while some of its actions might be predictable the end results of them are not (as is always the case).  What if the Republicans can kill the Iran deal?  What happens if Venezuela falls into civil war?  There are many possibilities and untold unknowns.

One of the big impacts is going to come circa Oct when the biannual restructuring of the loans the frackers are trying so desperately to service (as you mentioned) next happens.  With the price of oil so low now a large number of the companies will not get past this point as the amounts they can borrow are based upon the collateral of their reserves.  But the value of those reserves has plummeted and may be a lot lower by Oct than it is now.  So Oct/Nov is likely to see a lot of the US fracking production disappear as those companies get shut down.  The big guys will come in a pick up reserves very cheap when this happens, but they will not produce them.  They will largely sit on them and wait for prices to rise to make a killing as they will not have loans to meet.

All very interesting stuff.  The oil business is fascinating.

But the real key to this situation for the readers here is that the oil price situation is very bad for the renewable industry.  In any situation where renewables directly compete with oil the break even cost point has moved very strongly in oils direction and may well go even further (The above argument also applies to natural gas to a great extent).  This coupled with the growing weakness in the global economy, which also works against the roll out of renewables, does not bode well for those invested in renewables solving our problems.  (I am safe from such uncomfortable feelings since I am not a member of that group  ;D )
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #584 on: August 24, 2015, 01:42:54 PM »
Next few weeks will be "interesting" for oil and gas (O & G) stocks.  Oil continues its long term trend DOWN...and stocks are taking a beating.

Exxon/Mobil is the "poster child" for where oil is heading.....as it has broken a long term line.

As O & G stocks take a beating.....the solar stocks are also correcting in a BIG WAY in unison.

The POLICY IMPLICATIONS of the next year or two are SIGNIFICANT.  As I said before....the O & G players will want two things:

1)  Will want the US to hurry up and open LNG (liquefied natural gas) EXPORT facilities so they can export US nat gas (which is much cheaper to produce than nat gas from Europe and elsewhere)

2)  They will want the US to export oil

3)  They will be clamoring about the Keystone Pipeline which can carry oil from Canada down to the US ports in the Gulf of Mexico and Cushing, OK.

And this is happening at a time when global warming is becoming more and more obvious....AND...at time of the presidential election over the next 14 months (not to mention the meeting in Paris coming up).

So there are a LOT of things converging over the next 14 months or so....and this is a CRUCIAL time for people to be making the CORRECT POLICY decisions.

For investors....the next few weeks will provide another "opportunity" to invest in solar stocks as the market CONTINUES to get battered....and oil prices continue to slide SOUTH (with other commodities).

Interesting times indeed... ;D

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #585 on: August 24, 2015, 09:02:23 PM »
Citigroup:  “The straightforward answer to whether cheap oil threatens renewables is no – at first glance, oil poses few direct threats to renewables.”
Quote
Citigroup says that two common statements have dominated recent dialogue: 1) that cheap oil will deal a serious blow to renewables, and 2) because oil and renewables rarely compete in the power sector, the impact will be minor.

It says neither is strictly true. Citigroup believes the fall in the oil price is terminal – it says the days of triple figure oil prices are over – meaning the end to some high-risk, high-polluting oil ventures in marginal regions such as the Arctic, tar sands and deepwater.

On the other hand, the long-term outlook for renewables remains bright. “Fundamental factors – increasing economic competitiveness, energy security, and environmental goals – all remain potent forces driving ever more rapid adoption of renewable energy globally.”

Wind and solar costs have fallen dramatically, and these cost declines should continue. On an unsubsidised basis, wind farms are getting built at costs below $40/MWh in some regions. Recent solar auctions in the Middle East have produced prices below $60/MWh.

“The straightforward answer to whether cheap oil threatens renewables is no – at first glance, oil poses few direct threats to renewables.”

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/04/02/citigroup-battle-between-cheap-oil-renewables-will-define-future-of-energy/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #586 on: August 24, 2015, 09:03:38 PM »
Even at $10/barrel, oil can’t match solar on cost
Quote
One of the biggest banks in the Middle East and the oil-rich Gulf countries says that fossil fuels can no longer compete with solar technologies on price, and says the vast bulk of the $US48 trillion needed to meet global power demand over the next two decades will come from renewables.

The report from the National Bank of Abu Dhabi says that while oil and gas has underpinned almost all energy investments until now, future investment will be almost entirely in renewable energy sources.

The report is important because the Gulf region, the Middle East and north Africa will need to add another 170GW of electricity in the next decade, and the major financiers recognise that the cheapest and most effective way to go is through solar and wind. It also highlights how even the biggest financial institutions in the Gulf are thinking about how to deploy their capital in the future.

“Cost is no longer a reason not to proceed with renewables,” the 80-page NBAD report says. It says the most recent solar tender showed that even at $10/barrel for oil, and $5/mmbtu for gas, solar is still a cheaper option.

The bank says intermittency of wind and solar is not an issue, notes that fossil fuels resources are finite and becoming increasing hard to reach, notes that governments want local supplies and want to disconnect from the volatility of the oil price, and says policy frameworks are seeking to decarbonise economies in response to climate and pollution concerns.

Remember, this is coming from a leading bank in the oil-rich Gulf, the most emissions-intensive countries in the world, and where energy demand is rising so quickly it risks overwhelming domestic production, turning states such as Kuwait and UAE into importers of energy rather than exporters. Hence the local push into solar, so that the Gulf states can keep more gas or oil for export.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/even-at-10barrel-oil-cant-match-solar-on-cost-37540
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #587 on: August 24, 2015, 09:11:25 PM »
I TOTALLY agree with the sentiment of Citigroup regarding oil vs renewables.

That is one of the reasons why Exxon and other oil companies are a DEEP DOODOO.  It will take many years (decades) for them to "unwind"....and it will be UGLY for them.

We have only seen the first stages of divestiture by many pension funds.  It is pretty obvious to everyone except for the people getting paid by O & G proponents (Bastardi, Watts, Inhoffe, etc)...that fossil fuel is TOAST.

Of course....we will have to put up with the side effects of dropping fossil fuel use, like (1) better health (not breathing in coal dust & other pollutants from fossil fuels), (2) lower cost (3) and less warming of the planet.  But I think we can live with those side effects..... ;)
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #588 on: August 24, 2015, 10:50:33 PM »
Well needless to say I think most content of the last 3 posts are wrong.

One needs to spend some time with the links numbers to see if what they are saying is just marketing BS or not.  A very large percentage of press reports are not worth the paper they used to be printed on.  Every one of those people or companies has an agenda wrapped around money.  So you know how far you can trust them.  For instance the comment that oil at $10 bbl cannot compete is pretty fishy since Saudi is figured to produce much of its oil at $5 bbl.  And show me some calculations where renewables can produce power at equivalent to $10 bbl which can stand up to some rigorous analysis.

One needs to keep in mind that just as for the various fossil fuels there are renewable lobbies who spout verbiage designed to move opinion, deflect opinion, draw investment and to hide reality.  Renewables has become a big business/industry and it uses the same tactics as any other industry to make its money.  It works hard for its subsidies and depends on them just like the fossil fuel companies do.  Tesla would not exist but for subsidies.  These people do not do this because they are trying to save the world you know. 

Oil in general does not compete with renewables and there is no doubt that over the last 6 months oil has gained on renewables a lot in the places where it does compete.  A lot.  Same for natural gas which does more directly compete with renewables.  Over time fossil fuel use is going to die of course.  But that time is far away unfortunately.

This idea that Exxon and other oil companies are going to go bankrupt or something is nonsense in any near term time frame.  The big investors in this are not stupid and they will milk all the return on investment they can for as long as they can.  They will take their capital and reinvest it as it frees up in other energy fields - most likely renewables.  It is all about return on investment. 

Divestiture has zero impact on any energy company as there are innumerable deep pocket investors who will provide capital as long as the returns are in line with what rent they are seeking.

Some of the 'other' side effects are a deep drop in energy available per capita and the devastating impact that will have on the level of civilization we can put on the field.  That will bite a bit too.  Costs of renewables, which are much higher than the lobbies talk about or acknowledge, will perhaps be less than the total of fossil fuels all right.  But we are used to not counting the external costs and in shear capacity to do work the fossil fuels cannot be matched.   I think that when you analyze the impacts in totality of the loss of fossil fuels that there will be a very strong net negative in terms of increasing death rates, declining overall quality of health, less capacity to maintain current lifestyles (afterall everyone is about bau it seems).

The declining global financial situation (basically setting up to repeat a lot of the 2009 debacle) severely constrains the ability of governments all over the world to make the renewable transition.  Ignoring external costs (which is still going to be the norm for a long time) it is easily cheaper to stick with existing forms of generation as the capital has already been invested.  In some cases even new capacity will be cheaper in that calculation than going with renewables will be.  This transition will take a very long time.  Time which is no longer available as collapse is overtaking us.

I note that there seems to be a sense of competition towards what I have been saying by a number of folks.  As if I am arguing FOR fossil fuels as opposed to renewables.  I have said repeatedly that if I were in charge I would ban the use of coal day one and phase out oil/gas at speed.

The point I keep trying to make here is that the BAU approach of the advocates of renewables being able to "replace' fossil fuels and then we can go on with our lives as they exist today is insane.  It is just not possible.  If we are to actually really seek solutions we need to work on the core causes of our problems.  Not treat the symptoms with some new pain killer which relieves the immediate reason for discomfort while the patient goes ahead and dies.  It is not that I am against spending resources on pain medication as it were, but if we don't treat the disease we die.  So put some effort into that please.

 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #589 on: August 25, 2015, 12:48:43 AM »
Today, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, slipped $2.21 to close at $38.24 a barrel; which is the first time this benchmark slipped below $40/barrel since February 2009.
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #590 on: August 25, 2015, 07:47:27 AM »
...

But the real key to this situation for the readers here is that the oil price situation is very bad for the renewable industry.  In any situation where renewables directly compete with oil the break even cost point has moved very strongly in oils direction and may well go even further (The above argument also applies to natural gas to a great extent).  This coupled with the growing weakness in the global economy, which also works against the roll out of renewables, does not bode well for those invested in renewables solving our problems.  (I am safe from such uncomfortable feelings since I am not a member of that group  ;D )

My thoughts exactly.

Even if renewables do catch fossil fuels in terms of competitiveness, this drop in oil and other energy prices will cause the transition to be delayed by several years. And those several years are critical at this stage. In my opinion it kills the last chance that a miracle might happen in the BAU trajectory (not that I had such illusions, but black swans might occur to the upside too).

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #591 on: August 25, 2015, 03:51:17 PM »
Big Oil hates a California climate bill so much that it’s telling outright lies about it
Quote
In a mailing sent to California households (including mine), Big Oil has risen to a new level of hysterical ooga booga. Not content to rely on the facts, they claim the legislature is considering the “The California Gas Restriction Act of 2015.” This new law will result in “gas rationing to control when families can fill their tanks, surcharges on non-hybrid mini-vans and SUV’s, penalties and fines for drivers who use too much gas,” and lord knows what else.

The problem? There is no such bill.
http://grist.org/climate-energy/big-oil-hates-a-california-climate-bill-so-much-that-its-telling-outright-lies-about-it/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #592 on: August 25, 2015, 04:02:16 PM »
Quote
Well needless to say I think most content of the last 3 posts are wrong.

I'll TRY to make this as short as possible  ;)...and just address pertinent items:

1) 
Quote
One needs to keep in mind that just as for the various fossil fuels there are renewable lobbies.
   

Next you will be telling me that the Boy Scouts have lobbyists ;D  The Boy Scouts DO have lobbyists....as well as renewable energy.  Personally....I hate ALL LOBBYISTS.  Although...if it weren't for FOX News....many of them would be out of work ;)

 
2)  "I TOTALLY agree with the SENTIMENT of the Citigroup regarding oil vs renewables."

Agreeing with the SENTIMENT....does NOT mean that I agree with its details.  Those are very different animals.   Do I see $10 oil?  Certainly not.  Would $10 oil "crimp" renewable?  Certainly it would effect it.  But oil is "loosing its luster".   And now companies are looking DOWN THE ROAD...now that the "picture" of that road is coming more clearly into focus.  And that focus means that fossil fuels need to "go away".  Change is difficult.  The "free market" (well...mostly free) will help push it out the door. 
 
3)  Subsidies:  I would LOVE to see ALL subsidies go away.  But the OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY WOULD NEVER GO FOR THAT.  They are the LARGEST recipient of incentives and subsides by a LARGE MARGIN.  Some folks are calling for "subsidies" for renewable to go away....but the people pushing for those incentives to go away DON'T want the fossil fuel incentives to go away.  I wonder why?

Small companies ( ;)) like Walmart and Google don't HAVE to install solar.  They are choosing to.  A large part of that calculation is cost...both current and future

4)  Coal was the "most obvious" of three primary fossil fuels to get hit first...and it will still take a LONG WHILE to play out (many decades).  Oil is the second in line to get hit...and natural gas will be the last to get hit.  I am actually VERY BULLISH on natural gas as an investment over the next 5 - 20 years as LNG EXPORT facilities come on line in the US.  Supply and demand.  I think it is crappy for the environment...but as an investment, the next decade or two certainly looks good for nat gas.  You see....I'm not a lobbyist.

Before....it didn't make a lot of sense to use electric cars....because you were charging them up with electricity produced by coal plants.  That...is quickly being replaced by both nat gas and renewables as coal's portion of the energy pie continues to drop.  Coal is the red-headed step child (my apologies if you are a red head like me ;)).  The other two will take longer to go the way of the dodo bird....but their day (or decade) is coming further on down the road.

5) 
Quote
This idea that Exxon and other oil companies are going to go bankrupt or something is nonsense in any near term time frame.

There will be MANY BANKRUPTIES of small and perhaps some intermediate sized O & G companies in the next few years.  The "marginal players" have too much debt on their books they have to service.  Remember...they were drilling when price was $100....and now its $40.  Something tells me their spreadsheet "pro forma's" are not looking so great.  And that is why they will continue to pump....because they don't have the financial wherewithal to pull back once they have their "sunk costs" (fixed costs) in the ground.  As long as their marginal cost is less than the price...they will keep pumping.  But nobody that I know...thinks that EXXON is going into bankruptcy anytime soon. Maybe you have been watching too much FOX News?  I know....."fair and balanced."....:)

4) 
Quote
Oil in general does not compete with renewables and there is no doubt that over the last 6 months oil has gained on renewables

You can't have it both ways.  Either it is competing or it is not competing.  Which is it?  They all play in the same large pool.....maybe different parts of it....but it is ALL INTERRLATED in some way.

5) 
Quote
The big investors in this are not stupid and they will milk all the return on investment they can for as long as they can.

Oh...so they are smart executives the likes of which were at:   Blockbuster, Wang Computer, WorldCom, American Airlines, Enron, General Motors, etc....etc....etc....  That makes me feel a LOT better ;)

The financial history is littered with a LOT of "smart people"......that were short on wisdom.  Ego can be blinding....and especially with a company with HIGH FIXED COSTS and a lot of debt....it isn't easy to "turn on a dime."  I think many of them have already MISSED THAT OPPORTUNITY....

6)
Quote
Divestiture has zero impact on any energy company as there are innumerable deep pocket investors who will provide capital as long as the returns are in line with what rent they are seeking.

a)  I did NOT realize that the universe of deep pocket investors was endless.
b)  Prices are set by the INCREMENTAL investor.  Take some of the investors away....and you bring down the price of the equity or debt.  There IS an effect.  And that effect will be on their "cost of capital" (debt).  It will increase slightly over time.

7) 
Quote
Some of the 'other' side effects are a deep drop in energy available per capita and the devastating impact that will have on the level of civilization we can put on the field
.

WOW.  You must have been watching an Al Gore horror flick:)  Full disclosure...I'm NOT an Al Gore fan.

Two things:  (a)  First....the energy available per capita WILL BE DROPPING.... IT IS HAPPENING NOW because of efficiency in all areas of energy (car mileage....building insulation...improved solar....improved wind....nat gas rather than coal....lighting costs dropping....etc..etc).  EVERYWHERE.  We're going to CONTINUE to drop the amount of energy WE NEED PER CAPITA....so we NEED LESS ENERGY PER CAPITA.  That is a GOOD THING.

(b)  I think the "level of civilization" will be just fine (whatever you mean by level of civilization).  I have a "news flash" for you:  The "level of civilization" is on a LONG ROAD UP.  We have a LONG WAY TO GO...but very good prospects.  Once we get rid of people and companies that lie for a living (FOX News...Bill O'Reilly....Sean Hannity....Tony Watts....most lobbyists...etc)....I think the prospects are VERY GOOD INDEED.

8) 
Quote
Costs of renewables, which are much higher than the lobbies talk about or acknowledge, will perhaps be less than the total of fossil fuels all right.  But we are used to not counting the external costs and in shear capacity to do work the fossil fuels cannot be matched.
 

Cost of renewables continues to drop like a stone.  Germany produced 78% of their energy for one day a few weeks ago.  And this is GERMANY.....think Seattle....not the sunniest place in the world.  With every passing day, more and more places will be able to "replace" fossil fuels.  But it WON'T happen over night.

9) 
Quote
I think that when you analyze the impacts in totality of the loss of fossil fuels that there will be a very strong net negative in terms of increasing death rates, declining overall quality of health, less capacity to maintain current lifestyles

I could say something like..."you've got to be kidding"....."are you saying that with a straight face"...or...."what oil and gas company did you say you work for".....but I won't.  Instead...you can look up the GAZILLIONS of research articles that show just how bad vehicle emissions are for people.  Or....better yet....go visit Beaumont, Texas sometime.  You'll smell it before you even get to the city limits.   In Texas they say..."if you like benzene....you'll love Beaumont."

http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2014/12/17/study-reduced-emissions-from-electric-cars-could-prevent-thousands-of-deaths/

http://www.eesi.org/articles/view/new-research-documents-frackings-health-effects-on-workers-and-communities

http://www2.epa.gov/air-research/near-source-air-pollution-research

10 
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The declining global financial situation (basically setting up to repeat a lot of the 2009 debacle) severely constrains the ability of governments all over the world to make the renewable transition.  Ignoring external costs (which is still going to be the norm for a long time)


There is no "repeat of the 2009 debacle".  The last debacle, in large part, was because of too much leverage in the system (investment banks talked the Bush administration to allow change the system to allow them to leverage WAY TOO MUCH...in combination with other factors that caused too much leverage in other places like homebuying...car buying..etc).  The only "debacle" now...is China...which is a mess.  The US is actually doing pretty well....considering we are recovering from an almost total meltdown of the banking system in 2008.

11) 
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I note that there seems to be a sense of competition towards what I have been saying by a number of folks.


?????????  Discussions are NOT competitions.  People HAVE different opinions.  Some of those opinions will END UP being CLOSER TO REALITY....and some won't.  And we won't KNOW until "later on."

The "tipping point" on renewable energy is now BEHIND US.  Now....we will be in an era of INCREASED MOMENTUM of that sea change.  There will be MANY companies that prosper....and many (old line) companies that fail.  That is the way that change works.

Humanity has such a LONG WAY TO GO.  We have just BARELY begun to tap into things that will change our lives for the better.  Using the sun and wind......is just ONE of the major changes that is now taking place.

Combine that with changes that will be coming in COMMUNICATION, HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY, ACCOUTABILITY (are you listening FOX News?), and other areas.......I am REALLY bullish.

BUT....we (humans) have to realize that the QUICKER WE GET AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS....the better off we will be FROM A HEALTH STANDPOINT....AND....FROM A COST STANDPOINT.

There are only 2 things that we do with our "waking hours":  (1)  make decisions, and (2) execute on decisions.  In order to make GOOD DECISIONS....we need (a) good information, (b) good communication, (c) accountability, and most importantly (d) good people.  And that certainly applies to decisions "we" are making about the move away from fossil fuels.

 
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Buddy

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #594 on: August 26, 2015, 04:33:18 PM »
For Oil Producers Cash Is King, and That's Why They Just Can't Stop Drilling
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Executives defend the grow-at-all-costs strategy by saying they’ve changed their methods to be more efficient. Costs for some companies have fallen more than 20 percent, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, and higher productivity has improved the outlook even at $40 oil. Growth is the natural outcome of drilling good wells, according to producers embracing such plans.

“At Cimarex, we’re not shipwreck victims waiting for a rescue ship,” Chief Executive Officer Thomas Jorden said in an investor presentation on Aug. 18. “That ship’s not coming.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/blame-oil-glut-on-investors-who-still-love-drilling-over-profits-idryi3h1
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #595 on: August 26, 2015, 09:05:53 PM »
Bankruptcy article (just one of MANY).  This one was from back in May of this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/-shale-ionaires-suffering-from-wave-of-bankrupt-oil-drillers

This one is from August of this year:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2015/08/17/as-oil-goes-down-bankruptcies-go-up-these-5-frackers-could-be-the-next-to-fall/

I'm sure they are all thinking:  "What the FRACK is going on"?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #596 on: August 26, 2015, 09:41:16 PM »
The phrase "Evolve or die" comes to mind....
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #597 on: August 26, 2015, 11:06:41 PM »
Bad news for coal....is likely good news for nat gas (as least over the next 5 - 20 years):

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/26/coal-in-the-us-on-life-support/

I really hate to see coal die.  It was SOOOO clean.  Didn't disrupt any water resources...didn't pollute the sky (or our lungs)....and the CEO's were so thoughtful to their workers who died of black lung disease....

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #598 on: August 27, 2015, 12:00:15 AM »
More "good news" for the fossil fuel industry ;)

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/26/coal-in-the-us-on-life-support/

Great article on several points:

1)  The number of jobs in solar is now swamping the number of jobs in coal (and you only have to put up a solar panel ONE TIME.....instead of "re digging" for coal)

2)   Coal is continuing a long term trend down....

3)   Nat gas will make out VERY WELL over the next decade or so.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #599 on: August 27, 2015, 03:42:32 PM »
Welcome to Quakelahoma
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As the number of quakes has skyrocketed, so has the number of bigger quakes. There was only one quake in the 4 range in 2012; there were 15 in 2014, and 2015 has already passed that mark. Statistically, for every 10 quakes in the 4 range, there's a 5. And the current chance of a 6 — a strong quake that can inflict extensive damage or injuries in populated areas — in the next year are 1 in 100, Halihan said.
https://news.vice.com/article/welcome-to-quakelahoma
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.