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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #600 on: August 27, 2015, 07:17:39 PM »
New Jersey Is Letting Exxon Pay $225 Million For $8.9 Billion Worth Of Pollution
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/26/3695594/exxon-offers-little-nj-says-ok/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #601 on: August 27, 2015, 10:54:35 PM »
So important, will share here, as well as the renewables thread:  :)

Hawaii’s Governor Dumps Oil and Gas in Favor of 100 Percent Renewables
An unlikely partnership between Hawaii’s local government and the US military makes the island a leader in energy policy.
Quote
At the Asia Pacific Resilience Innovation Summit held in Honolulu, Hawaii, this week, Governor David Ige dropped a bombshell. His administration will not use natural gas to replace the state’s petroleum-fueled electricity plants, but will make a full-court press toward 100 percent renewables by 2045. Ige’s decisive and ambitious energy vision is making Hawaii into the world’s most important laboratory for humankind’s fight against climate change. He has, in addition, attracted an unlikely and enthusiastic partner in his embrace of green energy—the US military.

Ige said Monday that LNG (liquefied natural gas) will not save the state money over time, given the plummeting prices of renewables. Moreover, “it is a fossil fuel,” i.e., it emits dangerous greenhouse gases. He explained that local jurisdictions in Hawaii are putting up a fight against natural gas, making permitting difficult. Finally, any money put into retooling electric plants so as to run on gas, he said, is money that would better be invested in the transition to green energy.

Ige, trained as an electrical engineer, is leading his state in the most ambitious clean-energy program in the United States. On June 8, he signed into law a bill calling for Hawaii’s electricity to be entirely generated from renewables in only 30 years. He also directed that the University of Hawaii be net carbon zero in just 20 years.
...
Senator Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat, also addressed the summit, insisting that wind, solar, and other renewables are now competitive with fossil fuels and no longer “alternative.” Rather, they are practical today, because of significant price drops in the cost of photovoltaic panels and of wind turbines. He argued that change comes only when it is demanded. Several years ago, he said, Hawaii set what seemed like unrealistic green energy goals at that time. The senator’s point is valid. By 2015, officials wanted 15 percent of electricity generation to come from renewables. In 2014, it was already 21 percent.
http://www.thenation.com/article/hawaiis-governor-dumps-oil-and-gas-in-favor-of-100-percent-renewables/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #602 on: August 27, 2015, 11:21:24 PM »
Quote
An unlikely partnership between Hawaii’s local government and the US military makes the island a leader in energy policy.

That IS great news.  The snowball has only started....... It has a LONG way to run. ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #603 on: August 30, 2015, 04:38:58 PM »
Quote
At least two earthquakes in British Columbia over the past year – including one last week – are among the largest ever caused by natural gas fracking in North America and were both strong enough to force temporary shutdowns of operations.
Fracking-induced quakes in B.C. are among largest on record
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/fracking-induced-quakes-in-bc-are-among-largest-on-record/article26122142/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #604 on: August 31, 2015, 12:58:13 AM »
Saudi Arabia hangs on with cheap oil—but for how long?
Quote
But with crude oil selling for around $40 a barrel.... According to the Big Crunch's model, Saudi Arabia could burn through its entire $655 billion currency reserves by the end of 2018 if oil prices don't rise. Researchers at Barclays reached a similar conclusion, based on a scenario analysis of Brent prices at $50 a barrel. "Without fiscal adjustment and assuming no issuance of debt, Saudi Arabia's government deposits and FX reserves would be eroded by 2019," the investment bank wrote.
Even oil priced at $60 a barrel won't prevent Saudi Arabia from draining its reserves, unless it takes actions to cut costs.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/26/saudi-arabia-hangs-on-with-cheap-oil-but-for-how-long.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #605 on: September 01, 2015, 06:23:03 PM »
In Alaska, Obama Will Be in Middle of Oil and Climate Change Battle
Quote
ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Gov. Bill Walker ticks down the things he wants President Obama to see in visiting this vast northern state starting on Monday, and glorious glacial vistas are not at the top of the list.

He would like Mr. Obama to see the people lining up for services at state agencies that have been crippled by billions of dollars in state budget cuts as oil revenues have collapsed. Mr. Walker points out that law enforcement, education and transportation — all crucial in a state with roadless areas larger than Texas — were all severely hit as a fifth of the state budget got redlined out earlier this year, and billions more in cuts loom for next year.
...
As Mr. Obama comes north for what the White House has described as an examination of the effects of climate change, Alaska is battling over oil — its chief source of revenue — and the thorny implications of drilling. Oil prices have fallen to multiyear lows, and production has declined from aging oil fields — with consequences rippling through a state that pays for just about everything with taxes from oil.
...
As Chris Tuck, the minority leader in the State House of Representatives and a Democrat, put it: “I’m just hoping we don’t get blamed for the fact that the glaciers are melting.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/29/us/in-alaska-obama-will-be-in-middle-of-oil-and-climate-change-battle.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #606 on: September 07, 2015, 03:18:52 AM »
Gasoline prices in the U.S. are back to 2004 levels.
Quote
The decline has been widespread. Average prices are still above $3 in only four states: California and Nevada, as well as Alaska and Hawaii -- two states where everything is always more expensive.

Of the country's 130,000 or so gas stations, more than 5% are selling gas for less than $2 a gallon, AAA says. In South Carolina, the statewide average has fallen below $2 in the past week.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/06/news/economy/gas-prices/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #607 on: September 07, 2015, 08:51:48 PM »
Iran Sanctions Seen Lifted in Early 2016 by Nuclear Envoys
Quote
Iran plans to produce 3.8 million to 3.9 million barrels of oil a day by March, with output rising by 500,000 barrels a day soon after sanctions are lifted and by 1 million barrels within the following five months, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in a Sept. 2 interview. It’s currently producing 2.8 million barrels a day, its highest level in three years, and is exporting more than 1 million barrels a day, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/iran-sanctions-seen-lifted-in-early-2016-by-nuclear-envoys
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #608 on: September 08, 2015, 03:57:19 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #609 on: September 08, 2015, 04:06:37 PM »
Why the U.S. Gets the Most Out of Cheap Oil
Quote
Cheap oil should be good economic medicine for almost anybody who isn't trying to sell the stuff. Yet only one country has been able to take full advantage of the 14-month collapse in the price of crude: the U.S.

A big part of the reason was the success of the Federal Reserve at repairing the country's credit after the financial crisis. That let corporations reduce their debt to the lowest levels in decades while the unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent from 10 percent. Consequently, American producers and consumers were in a strong position to enjoy the fruits of their labors with oil in retreat.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-04/why-the-u-s-gets-the-most-out-of-cheap-oil
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #610 on: September 09, 2015, 09:23:03 PM »
U.K. North Sea Oil Industry Warns Investment May Fall 80% to 2017
Quote
Investment in U.K. North Sea oil and gas projects could drop as much as 80 percent by 2017 as the collapse in crude prices forces the industry to cut back.
...
About 140 fields will stop producing over the next five years as low oil prices accelerate decommissioning efforts in the region, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said in a report. Five fields have already been retired earlier than expected this year and not even a rebound of prices to $85 a barrel would prevent further closures, it said.

The Edinburgh-based energy consultant expects 38 new fields will come online over the same period and another 17 new projects to be approved. Spending on decommissioning old fields will increase by over 50 percent to 2019 and overtake spending on the development of new fields the same year, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/u-k-north-sea-oil-industry-warns-investment-may-fall-80-to-17
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #611 on: September 10, 2015, 03:24:32 AM »
Gas reduction dropped from California climate change bill
Quote
A provision calling for a 50% cut in petroleum use by 2030 will be dropped from legislation that includes the governor’s environmental goals, removing what was the main political obstacle to pass the bill before the Legislature’s session ends Friday.

“Oil has won the skirmish. But they've lost the bigger battle. Because I am more determined than ever," the governor said.
http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-ln-gasoline-reduction-dropped-from-climate-change-bill-20150909-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #612 on: September 10, 2015, 08:08:53 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #613 on: September 10, 2015, 10:06:43 PM »
300 Businesses Oppose Drilling In The Atlantic: ‘It’s A Reckless Gamble’
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/10/3700223/businesses-against-atlantic-drilling/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #614 on: September 11, 2015, 02:29:05 PM »
This is the equivalent of the tobacco companies getting into the health food business:

http://news.yahoo.com/kuwait-signs-385-mn-solar-energy-project-113048478.html

You know when THAT happens....that the gig is up.

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #615 on: September 11, 2015, 04:15:49 PM »
Goldman Sachs jolted the commodities market by suggesting that crude oil prices could temporarily drop as low as $20 per barrel in 2016.  It looks like renewables will have some price competition for some years to come:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/09/11/oil-could-plunge-20-goldman-sachs-says/72054790/

Extract: ""Although oil prices have revisited the lows of last winter, this time both financial and fundamental metrics are much weaker," Goldman said in the report. "Forward demand expectations are lower as the emerging market economic outlook continues to deteriorate."
To be sure, Goldman is not projecting a drop to $20 — a worst-case it said would be fleeting if it's reached. Goldman's official projection for 2016 WTI prices is $45, down from a previous forecast of $57. Goldman's 2017 forecast stayed at $60.
Still, the suggestion that oil could fall to $20 in a doomsday scenario jolted the energy markets as investors come to grips with the depth of the commodity's price decline."
« Last Edit: September 11, 2015, 04:57:44 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #616 on: September 11, 2015, 04:23:38 PM »
Quote
Goldman Sachs jolted the commodities market by suggesting that crude oil prices could temporarily drop as low as $20 per barrel in 2016.

I "think" the oil market has the potential to get into the HIGH 20's (temporarily).  But just an FYI on Goldman Sachs:  They are every bit as honest as the tobacco industry....and the oil and gas industry.  In fact....they are a good CONTRARIAN indicator.  If they are saying buy....I would sell, and vice versa.

We'll see how much oil comes onto the market via Iran....and continued US production.  Any "dip" into the $20's...would be a QUICK dip initially....and would set up a multi month (12 - 24 months???) rally.

   
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #617 on: September 11, 2015, 08:13:43 PM »
In 1986 the Saudi's, under Regan's direction, pumped oil until Brent Sweet was selling for <$10.00. They broke the USSR, then got back within OPEC's production limits and prices slowly went back up.


$10.00 in 1996 is worth $21.48 today. Any possibility that the Saudis, this time under Obama's direction are trying to again bust Russia?


Russia today is in much better financial shape than the USSR was in '86. Another problem might be that fracking & tar sands oil needs much higher prices than the drilling being done in N. America in the 80's. Saudi Arabia may,(even with their present war against Yemen), be able to stay afloat for a long time selling oil in the $20's, but Canada, US frackers, even Mexico can't afford to play along for very long.


Repeating a brilliant move from 30 years ago might not be brilliant this time 'round.


Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #618 on: September 11, 2015, 08:54:20 PM »
Quote
Saudi Arabia may,(even with their present war against Yemen), be able to stay afloat for a long time selling oil in the $20's, but Canada, US frackers, even Mexico can't afford to play along for very long.

Frackers are in BIG doo doo.  They are caught between a rock and hard place.  Here is just one of many articles about this.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5974a3ce-52e0-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html#axzz3lSPmwijQ

The Saudi's....after years of supporting the price of oil by cutting back their own production....are NOT playing that game this time.  This time....they are letting the oil price drop, and the LOWEST COST PRODUCER WINS....while many of the "marginal players" go to bankruptcy court.

Going to be an interesting 12 months or so.  Meanwhile.....alternative energy keeps dropping its price...and keeps "eating away" at the fringes of oil and gas.  And in addition.....there are a boatload of other companies that are "oil and gas replacements" for some of the niche markets (companies that make "oil" products out of algae).

Oil and gas are on the long road to hell.  And it is NOT going to be pretty for them in future years.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #619 on: September 12, 2015, 07:39:51 PM »
Bribes, Debt, $100 Billion Lost: Nigeria Can't Keep the Power On
Quote
Even after the sales, bribery of electricity workers by some diesel generator and fuel suppliers to organize household and business blackouts in order to boost sales is continuing. Diesel generation costs 30 cents to 50 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared with the average grid tariff of 13 cents, according to the World Bank. Timothy Oyedeji, a spokesman for the Power Ministry, didn’t answer two calls and a text message seeking comment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/bribes-debt-100-billion-lost-nigeria-can-t-keep-the-power-on
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #620 on: September 12, 2015, 09:39:52 PM »
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to $80 Oil
Quote
OPEC estimates that in the second quarter, global oil output exceeded demand by 2.87 million barrels a day, and it expects U.S. output to rise almost 1 million barrels a day this year and another 320,000 barrels a day in 2016. The International Energy Agency expects falling production in Russia to hold the non-OPEC output increase to 1.1 million barrels a day compared with 2.4 million barrels last year. The IEA looks for global demand to rise 1.6 million barrels a day this year and 1.4 million in 2016.

Still, worldwide supply would exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels a day next year. And the demand projections by IEA and even lower forecasts by OPEC do not factor in slower growth in China and other emerging markets, the nosedive in Chinese stocks, and the devaluation of the yuan....
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #621 on: September 12, 2015, 11:53:51 PM »
Amended SB 350 passes California legislature, awaits governor's signature.

Half Of California’s Electricity Will Come From Renewable Energy In 15 Years
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/12/3700981/california-landmark-climate-bill/
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #622 on: September 13, 2015, 12:53:55 AM »
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to $80 Oil
Quote
OPEC estimates that in the second quarter, global oil output exceeded demand by 2.87 million barrels a day, and it expects U.S. output to rise almost 1 million barrels a day this year and another 320,000 barrels a day in 2016. The International Energy Agency expects falling production in Russia to hold the non-OPEC output increase to 1.1 million barrels a day compared with 2.4 million barrels last year. The IEA looks for global demand to rise 1.6 million barrels a day this year and 1.4 million in 2016.

Still, worldwide supply would exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels a day next year. And the demand projections by IEA and even lower forecasts by OPEC do not factor in slower growth in China and other emerging markets, the nosedive in Chinese stocks, and the devaluation of the yuan....
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again


The article does not explain why they expect a slowdown in Russian oil. While I fully agree that oil still has a long down period ahead, I expect Russia's continued pumping to be part of the problem as opposed to part of the solution.
Russia may not have the debt service problems that many western producers face, but the depreciated Ruble allows them to pump profitably while competitors bleed more with every barrel extracted. Others are pumping because debt payment demands it. Russia pumps because expenses are paid in rubles while exported product is paid for in dollars. Why would Russia pump less in such circumstances?
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #623 on: September 13, 2015, 09:32:12 PM »
I find lots of general comments about lowered Russian oil production tied to their economic slowdown, but here's this via Reuters:
Quote
Russia, facing a perfect storm of collapsing prices, international sanctions and currency depreciation, will likely emerge as the industry's top loser,"  [IEA] said, forecasting production looked set to contract by 560,000 bpd to 10.4 million bpd from 2014 to 2020.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-iea-oil-idUSKBN0LE02O20150210

Also:  http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/09/11/world/europe/ap-eu-global-energy.html

And this: 
Quote
Given the impact of sanctions, low prices and the absence of any large projects expected to come on-line, oil production in Russia will drop in 2015 by 70,000 barrels a day, a report from OPEC projects.
http://barentsobserver.com/en/energy/2015/02/russian-oil-production-drop-70000-barrels-day-2015-opec-11-02
« Last Edit: September 13, 2015, 09:40:54 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #624 on: September 13, 2015, 09:42:18 PM »
Quote
Why would Russia pump less in such circumstances?

I don't think the Russians are doing so INTENTIONALLY.  Remember....there are sanctions against Russia because of their behavior in the Ukraine.  Those sanctions are hitting their oil and gas business.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/11/us-russia-rosneft-kara-sea-idUSKBN0OR16H20150611

I think Russia is likely "pumping balls to the walls" to the extent they can.  But as long as sanctions are in place.....they are held back by technology and investment from the west.

And if Russia keeps playing around in Syria....which I expect them to do (Putin's ego knows no bounds).....that will not help the situation.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #625 on: September 14, 2015, 04:57:25 PM »
Reference #621 above...

Consumer Watchdog Asks California Attorney General and US Attorneys to Investigate Oil Industry for Mail Fraud in Effort to Defeat Climate Change Legislation
http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/newsrelease/consumer-watchdog-asks-california-attorney-general-and-us-attorneys-investigate-oil-indu
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crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #626 on: September 14, 2015, 06:38:37 PM »
Reference #621 above...

Consumer Watchdog Asks California Attorney General and US Attorneys to Investigate Oil Industry for Mail Fraud in Effort to Defeat Climate Change Legislation
http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/newsrelease/consumer-watchdog-asks-california-attorney-general-and-us-attorneys-investigate-oil-indu

Mail fraud
Wondered what the penalty might be considering what was suggested in John Grisham's 'The Firm'.

Quote
3. Federal criminal penalties for mail fraud / postal fraud in California

Because mail fraud / postal fraud is a federal crime, the penalties may include time spent in federal prison (not the California state prison system).

Mail fraud is punishable with up to twenty (20) years in prison, a fine, or both. If the fraud involves a federal disaster or a financial institution (like a national bank), then the maximum sentence increases to thirty (30) years in prison.

Only 'may', no minimum term for each instance. Looks like climate change would not qualify as a federal disaster either even though we may feel that it should. Guess I am not too surprised that novel & film exaggerated the penalties involved. Lawyers likely would be held to higher standard.

I doubt this case would be considered all that serious. Even assuming that it can be proved it was being deliberately deceiving, the aim was lobbying for beneficial laws with potential benefits several years into the future. Judge, jury etc may well be persuaded that politicians are expected to be able to identify profit motivated lobbying and weigh this accordingly. So was there a deceitful gain/intended gain and was it much? Would expect this to limit any penalties that might be imposed even if I would like to see it being judged harshly.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #627 on: September 15, 2015, 11:55:47 PM »
Reference #621 above...

Quote
In a day-after post on the NRDC Switchboard blog, Max Baumhefner of the Natural Resources Defense Council writes that amidst all the sturm und drang of high-dollar oil lobbying, the revised third part of SB 350 has been largely overlooked.

News coverage of the bill's passage "focused on the oil companies' unsightly lobbying to remove a petroleum reduction goal from the bill," he writes.

But "few have noticed the provisions of Senator Kevin de León's legislation that make replacing oil as the dominant transportation fuel a core mission of the electric industry."

That goal allows "Californians to 'fill up' at home on cleaner electricity that's the cost equivalent of dollar-a-gallon gas."


The key is that "Senator de León's bill also establishes that a 'principal goal' of electric utility 'resource planning and investment' is 'to improve the environment and to encourage the diversity of energy resources through improvements in energy efficiency, development of renewable energy resources, and widespread transportation electrification."

And widespread deployment of electric vehicles is expected to help with grid stabilization, making it less expensive for utilities to meet the goal of 50 percent renewable electricity in just 15 years.

It will also significantly cut the cost of commuting for Californians--that equivalent of dollar-a-gallon gasoline--giving them more money to spend on other things.

So while the 50-percent petroleum reduction goal is not part of the law, the goal of electrifying California's transportation is now official policy.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099999_ca-climate-change-bill-passed-electric-utilities-to-target-oil-industry
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #628 on: September 16, 2015, 01:53:45 AM »
As the worlds leading oil producer/exporter Russia is certainly being hurt by today's low crude prices.
Russia's advantages are that they have very little debt compared to most producing countries and their raw materials & labor are priced in Rubles, which have been depreciated to roughly match oil prices.
Russian Arctic oil is estimated to cost as much as $120.00/bbl, while onshore oil production costs $18.00. I don't expect much (if any) Arctic oil to be pumped into today's market.


http://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country


At $18.00/bbl, the present Brent prices of >$48 are attractive & I assume that Russia will pump as much into the market as it possibly can. China can & will provide financing should Russia require it, but thus far Russia has been buying large amounts of gold on a ongoing basis, not the actions of a country overly worried about their balance sheet.


Russia's very low debt ratio & the backing of China leave it free of the concerns that many other producing nations face. Canadian tar sands are stuck between selling prices well below production cost & bills in American dollars that must be paid. They must keep pumping, even at a loss, just to keep the doors open. When prices normalize their debt load will be crippling. The Canadia Loonie, now trading at ~$0.75 doesn't have the same effect as the low Ruble. Canada's manufacturing sector had been gutted & would require huge financing, (in American dollars), to get back of it's feet. Canada has been reduced to being a source for raw materials, and with the global slowdown, raw materials are a glut on the market.


Frackers in the States may be in even worse shape since they may run out of oil even while they need to keep pumping at a loss. Without financing to drill additional wells & without oil being produced by existing wells, the future looks bleak. Financing costs will be ridiculous, but then why would anyone want to lend into that sector?


The Saudi's are borrowing money to finance their war as well as their domestic programs. Assuming that Saudi wells are bottomless, at some point they can throttle back on production, prices rise, debts are paid, and all is well. If the wells are not bottomless, if their war drags on, or if prices don't rebound, problems will arise.
The fact that they are borrowing indicates that they can't afford to continue pumping at these prices forever. Their domestic bills must be paid, so war may be the only optional expense that can be throttled back.


Russia has accepted that the sanctions will be in place for the foreseeable future and are working around them as best they can. Their counter-sanction against European food is building domestic production while keeping food inflation somewhat in check. Fighting against ISIS, whether in Syria or elsewhere, should be seen as a positive by the West, and is unlikely to draw further sanctions.


 Russian oil and gas exports to Europe are as important to Europe as they are to Russia. Russians can more easily do without new BMWs than Germany can do without cheap Russian gas. Noise is made about the export and import of LNG, but LNG is ~300% more expensive than piped gas & Europe won't willingly pay the difference.


I'm convinced that American neo-cons saw Russia and Europe as two players that were gaining influence. By playing a little "Why don't you and he fight?", the US thought that they would then be able to concentrate on their real problem which is the growth of China.


Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #629 on: September 16, 2015, 02:06:42 AM »
Quote
Russian oil and gas exports to Europe are as important to Europe as they are to Russia. Russians can more easily do without new BMWs than Germany can do without cheap Russian gas.

The first of several LNG export terminals will come on-line in 2016 in the US.  That gas will be exported to Europe most likely.  That will crimp the Russians further......

And all is not as rosey as the Russians would like, relative to their natural gas deals with China as noted in the article below:

http://russia-insider.com/en/russias-natural-gas-plans/ri9262

Interesting times....
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #630 on: September 16, 2015, 06:41:06 AM »
Buddy

I think I agree with everything your linked article says, except for the spin.

IIRC Russia wanted gas linked to oil prices (same way they price their sales to Europe), while China was bargaining for a fixed price (much easier to plan ahead). When, as your article notes, both sides were playing everything very close to the vest after the deal was reached, most believed that Russia had folded because of the sanctions and that China had got a low fixed price. It appears, according to your article, that this is not true.

While I don't believe oil prices can reclaim their previous heights, they will trend higher than they are now, otherwise the damage to Canada, Big Oil and Western producers would be huge. When oil recovers, so will gas. Russia will be fine as long as Putin can avoid major conflicts.
 
Turkey was/is the weak link in bringing Russian gas to Southern Europe, but Nord Stream & it's expansion saves Germany from the vagaries of Ukrainian politics. If the expansion is completed Germany will be in position to act as middle man for most of the rest of Europe. Germany often gets what it wants in Europe, especially when so many other players are financially drained.

If Russia can do anything to injure ISIS, and ameliorate the flow of refugees from Syria, Europe might just  be grateful enough to back down on some of the sanctions, although as I'd mentioned earlier this is not something Putin or Lavrov are expecting or working towards.

The one thing I've noticed from the beginning of the Ukraine affair is how Putin has acted as though someone, at some time, will be reading the transcript and passing judgment. Kiev, Washington and NATO all act as if short term gain is all that matters and they leave themselves open to criticism should the situation not resolve itself with their side winning unconditionally.

LNG is no substitute for piped gas, it simply costs too much to liquefy & reconstitute. What success Europe's enjoys as a manufacturing center is & was dependent on their access to cheap, piped, Russian gas. Germany and France are aware of this and won't be bullied into paying for LNG, at least this is Russia's hope. The Canadian and Australian LNG hubs have already been written off. China was to have been the customer for both & that market simply doesn't exist. If Japan prefers to continue importing from the West, it will only hurt their bottom line.

Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #631 on: September 16, 2015, 08:58:44 AM »
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/09/14/how-our-energy-problem-leads-to-a-debt-collapse-problem/

The information she presents in compelling and it delves into why we could be facing these problems perhaps quite soon, in a previous post, she says that it could be a year or perhaps six months: http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/08/26/deflationary-collapse-ahead/
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #632 on: September 16, 2015, 02:57:08 PM »
Quote
how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.

I am of the belief.......that fossil fuels are toast in the LONG RUN.  And I also believe that "long run"...will NOT be as long as most believe.  In other words....the next TWO DECADES will show AMAZING PROGRESS and movement towards renewables.  That does NOT MEAN that we won't have fossil fuels for many decades (maybe 4....5......6....?).  But the movement TOWARDS an end to fossil fuels will be much swifter than most believe. 

Those countries....like Russia....are in BIG TROUBLE....because they are SO reliant upon EXPORTING of fossil fuels.  A country like Germany (who used to be a big importer of fossil fuels), that is moving QUICKLY to renewables is in GREAT SHAPE....and getting better all the time.

I think the thing that most "gloom and doomers" are not seeing relative to the "end of fossil fuels"......is that the decrease in energy costs that we are having now BENEFITS ALL COMPANIES NOT IN THE FOSSIL FUEL BUSINESS (and electric utilities....because they are likely toast in the long run as well).

Think of it as all companies getting a PERMANENT TAX BREAK.  So while those who are tied to fossil fuels....and that includes STATES like West Virginia, Kentucky, North Dakota....etc will likely be hit harder in coming years/decade by the movement away from fossil fuels, everyone else will gain BIG TIME.

Price DECREASES in one sector of the economy....even a LARGE SECTOR like energy....does NOT mean we will suffer through deflation.  Deflation is the expectation that GENERAL COSTS will continue to drop in the future....so consumers keep putting off purchases because they believe the costs will continue to drop.  I don't see that happening in the GENERAL ECONOMY.  The costs in the ENERGY SECTOR will continue drop OVER TIME (20 - 50 years from now I expect energy costs to be far less than today)....but that drop in energy cost will benefit everyone EXCEPT the fossil fuel companies.

Those companies that make pipe and parts for drilling.....will give way to companies making parts for solar, wind, and wave energy.  There are NOW many more jobs in the solar industry than there are in the coal industry in the US.  That "transition" will continue....and likely speed up.

With costs decreasing for energy....that will give almost everyone else money to spend on other things.

   
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #633 on: September 16, 2015, 03:20:13 PM »
Quote
how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.

I am of the belief.......that fossil fuels are toast in the LONG RUN.  And I also believe that "long run"...will NOT be as long as most believe.  In other words....the next TWO DECADES will show AMAZING PROGRESS and movement towards renewables.  That does NOT MEAN that we won't have fossil fuels for many decades (maybe 4....5......6....?).  But the movement TOWARDS an end to fossil fuels will be much swifter than most believe. 

Those countries....like Russia....are in BIG TROUBLE....because they are SO reliant upon EXPORTING of fossil fuels.  A country like Germany (who used to be a big importer of fossil fuels), that is moving QUICKLY to renewables is in GREAT SHAPE....and getting better all the time.

I think the thing that most "gloom and doomers" are not seeing relative to the "end of fossil fuels"......is that the decrease in energy costs that we are having now BENEFITS ALL COMPANIES NOT IN THE FOSSIL FUEL BUSINESS (and electric utilities....because they are likely toast in the long run as well).

Think of it as all companies getting a PERMANENT TAX BREAK.  So while those who are tied to fossil fuels....and that includes STATES like West Virginia, Kentucky, North Dakota....etc will likely be hit harder in coming years/decade by the movement away from fossil fuels, everyone else will gain BIG TIME.

Price DECREASES in one sector of the economy....even a LARGE SECTOR like energy....does NOT mean we will suffer through deflation.  Deflation is the expectation that GENERAL COSTS will continue to drop in the future....so consumers keep putting off purchases because they believe the costs will continue to drop.  I don't see that happening in the GENERAL ECONOMY.  The costs in the ENERGY SECTOR will continue drop OVER TIME (20 - 50 years from now I expect energy costs to be far less than today)....but that drop in energy cost will benefit everyone EXCEPT the fossil fuel companies.

Those companies that make pipe and parts for drilling.....will give way to companies making parts for solar, wind, and wave energy.  There are NOW many more jobs in the solar industry than there are in the coal industry in the US.  That "transition" will continue....and likely speed up.

With costs decreasing for energy....that will give almost everyone else money to spend on other things.

   

Good points, but solar and other renewables need coal and oil in order to advance. With more time, yes, renewables would outweigh fossil fuels, but there is not enough time as Gail notes, the cost of extracting coal and oil will become too powerful, thus, renewable energy will become irrelevant, even in the short term.
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #634 on: September 16, 2015, 03:24:42 PM »
Here's a short article titled:  "The oil age will end before the well runs dry."

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-age-will-end-before-well-runs-dry-2015-9?r=UK&IR=T

Here is the last paragraph:

"The Oil Age is slated to end by the year 2035, but the reserves will last another century. If the oil-exporting countries do not wish to see their economies utterly destroyed, they must diversify, invest in human capital, and make the private sector much more productive. The party is coming to an end – and these countries must be prepared."
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #635 on: September 16, 2015, 03:38:01 PM »
Here's a short article titled:  "The oil age will end before the well runs dry."

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-age-will-end-before-well-runs-dry-2015-9?r=UK&IR=T

Here is the last paragraph:

"The Oil Age is slated to end by the year 2035, but the reserves will last another century. If the oil-exporting countries do not wish to see their economies utterly destroyed, they must diversify, invest in human capital, and make the private sector much more productive. The party is coming to an end – and these countries must be prepared."

Good article, however I will counter that by saying that Gail has a better track record in terms of making predictions regarding the global economy.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #636 on: September 16, 2015, 03:38:37 PM »
An eight-month investigation by InsideClimate News reveals Exxon spent millions in the 1970's and 1980’s confirming the environmental threat posed by the oil industry -- then turned its efforts to promoting climate change denial.

Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago
Top executives were warned of possible catastrophe from greenhouse effect, then led efforts to block solutions.
Quote
At a meeting in Exxon Corporation's headquarters, a senior company scientist named James F. Black addressed an audience of powerful oilmen. Speaking without a text as he flipped through detailed slides, Black delivered a sobering message: carbon dioxide from the world's use of fossil fuels would warm the planet and could eventually endanger humanity.
...
His presentations reflected uncertainty running through scientific circles about the details of climate change, such as the role the oceans played in absorbing emissions. Still, Black estimated quick action was needed. "Present thinking," he wrote in the 1978 summary, "holds that man has a time window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical."

Exxon responded swiftly. Within months the company launched its own extraordinary research into carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and its impact on the earth. Exxon's ambitious program included both empirical CO2 sampling and rigorous climate modeling. It assembled a brain trust that would spend more than a decade deepening the company's understanding of an environmental problem that posed an existential threat to the oil business.

Then, toward the end of the 1980s, Exxon curtailed its carbon dioxide research. In the decades that followed, Exxon worked instead at the forefront of climate denial. It put its muscle behind efforts to manufacture doubt about the reality of global warming its own scientists had once confirmed. It lobbied to block federal and international action to control greenhouse gas emissions. It helped to erect a vast edifice of misinformation that stands to this day.

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #637 on: September 16, 2015, 04:03:20 PM »
One other thing to consider regarding the "changing energy market".....is that it will (I believe) also enable agriculture costs to drop.

You already have seen over the last 5 years....a movement to move agriculture closer to the end user.  Also....there are many "indoor farms" (using buildings to grow hydroponic vegetables...especially things like "lettuce, basil, tomato's, etc).  So if energy costs continue to be pushed down....that makes "24 x 7" growing that much cheaper.

A LOT of good things coming in the years ahead.....and especially in the next decade.

It's funny.....at a time when people are so inundated with "negative crap" from cable tv (both the left and the right.....but more so from FOX Lies)....there are so many good things happening as well.

What is everyone going to be bitching about next fall when the unemployment rate is near 4% in the US.....gasoline costs are down.....and energy/electricity costs are continuing to drop?

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #638 on: September 16, 2015, 04:42:30 PM »
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.
...

A couple thoughts:

I think there is too much pent up demand -- in the still-recovering US economy, and all the countries undergoing "austerity" regimes -- for deflation to take hold:  people will take the money saved on gas, and purchase things they've needed/wanted to buy for a while.

And I believe the article fails to consider the full effect of energy efficiency gains -- energy not needed.  From the Efficiency thread:
Quote
Americans’ energy-conservation efforts, from switching bulbs to upgrading washing machines and air conditioners, have done more to reduce carbon emissions than the increased use of solar, wind and natural gas, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.  Efficiency can help meet half of the emissions cuts sought under President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1145.msg60789.html#msg60789
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #639 on: September 16, 2015, 04:55:50 PM »
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.
...

A couple thoughts:

I think there is too much pent up demand -- in the still-recovering US economy, and all the countries undergoing "austerity" regimes -- for deflation to take hold:  people will take the money saved on gas, and purchase things they've needed/wanted to buy for a while.

And I believe the article fails to consider the full effect of energy efficiency gains -- energy not needed.  From the Efficiency thread:
Quote
Americans’ energy-conservation efforts, from switching bulbs to upgrading washing machines and air conditioners, have done more to reduce carbon emissions than the increased use of solar, wind and natural gas, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.  Efficiency can help meet half of the emissions cuts sought under President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1145.msg60789.html#msg60789

I think Gail Tverberg hasn't the foggiest understanding of macroeconomics.  If oil prices drop below cost of extraction, there will simply be less extraction until prices rise.  Such a dynamic equilibrium simply won't result a deflationary spiral.  Deflationary spirals only happen when fiscal and monetary policy are mismanaged.  She seems to be a moderately successful doomsayer, but I wouldn't bet on her ability to pass an Econ 101 final exam.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #640 on: September 16, 2015, 09:52:30 PM »
White House opposes GOP bill to lift oil export ban
Quote
The White House said Sept. 15, it opposes a House Republican bill to lift the four-decade-old ban on crude oil exports.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest took a shot at McCarthy and other Republicans pushing to end the oil export ban, which was imposed in the 1970s as the United States responded to an Arab oil embargo that sparked inflation and prompted long lines at gas stations. “It is quite clear what Leader McCarthy’s priorities are, and the priorities of his party in Congress: to cozy up to oil interests and to pursue policies and to make policy announcements that are clearly in their interests,” said Earnest.
...
Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass., said it makes no sense to export U.S. oil when the nation still imports millions of barrels of oil a day and consumers are saving at the pump because of lower oil prices worldwide.

“Low gas prices are a massive economic stimulus for American consumers and our economy,” Markey said. “Oil companies want to lift the export ban in order to tip consumers upside down and shake money out of their pockets.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/white-house-opposes-gop-bill-to-lift-oil-export-ban/2015/09/15/5633cd46-5bf2-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #641 on: September 16, 2015, 10:09:43 PM »
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #642 on: September 19, 2015, 06:43:48 PM »
U.S. Shale Drillers Are Drowning in Debt
Quote
As much as 400,000 barrels a day of oil production is at risk as U.S. shale companies like Samson Resources Co. run out of money and are forced to slow drilling.

Total debt for half of the companies in a Bloomberg index of more than 60 producers has risen to a level that represents 40 percent of their enterprise value. It’s a sign of distress that shows equity values falling in the face of oil’s crash, said Rob Thummel, a managing director and portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC who helps manage $15.6 billion.
...
As companies run low on cash, they may be forced to idle drilling rigs, confront bankruptcy or seek more expensive financing and sell assets. In the past year, U.S. oil producers used 83 percent of their operating cash flow to pay for debt service, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A year ago, it was less than 60 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/an-oklahoma-of-oil-at-risk-as-debt-shackles-u-s-shale-drillers
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #643 on: September 19, 2015, 06:50:33 PM »
China is softening the global oil surplus by buying cheap oil to stock up its reserves. But that won't last long.

Quote
By mopping up some of the surplus, China encourages a gentler scenario in which the “financial stress” of $40 oil gradually causes highly indebted shale producers to curb production, Currie said. “You reduce the likelihood of a scenario where the market only balances when prices collapse below production costs, at about $20 a barrel,”  he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/even-a-slowing-china-is-oil-s-best-defense-against-deeper-slump
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #644 on: September 22, 2015, 06:28:34 PM »
The boom market in sand for fracking, and its transport, has ended in Wisconsin.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/oil-bust-claims-unusual-american-victim-far-away-from-shale-rigs
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #645 on: September 23, 2015, 10:13:38 PM »
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.
...

A couple thoughts:

I think there is too much pent up demand -- in the still-recovering US economy, and all the countries undergoing "austerity" regimes -- for deflation to take hold:  people will take the money saved on gas, and purchase things they've needed/wanted to buy for a while.

And I believe the article fails to consider the full effect of energy efficiency gains -- energy not needed.  From the Efficiency thread:
Quote
Americans’ energy-conservation efforts, from switching bulbs to upgrading washing machines and air conditioners, have done more to reduce carbon emissions than the increased use of solar, wind and natural gas, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.  Efficiency can help meet half of the emissions cuts sought under President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1145.msg60789.html#msg60789

I think Gail Tverberg hasn't the foggiest understanding of macroeconomics.  If oil prices drop below cost of extraction, there will simply be less extraction until prices rise.  Such a dynamic equilibrium simply won't result a deflationary spiral.  Deflationary spirals only happen when fiscal and monetary policy are mismanaged.  She seems to be a moderately successful doomsayer, but I wouldn't bet on her ability to pass an Econ 101 final exam.

The debt that some companies are under is also an issue with regards the low cost and production cutbacks are not a good thing if it puts the companies extracting and refining the oil at risk of bankruptcy, thus in essence, the low oil prices cannot continue because it will not be profitable to extract oil, and renewables can only be an alternative if they did not require a lot of fossil fuels to not only manufacture, but also maintain. 
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #646 on: September 24, 2015, 04:25:41 AM »
Oil closed below $45/barrel today.

Oil price: will $1.5 trillion of project cuts end slump?
Quote
"Just half a dozen new projects will be approved this year and 10 or 11 in 2016," the report states, compared with an annual average of 50 to 60. North American production in particular will be hit, as flexible shale drilling has "reacted fastest to the market collapse". That suggests Opec has scored a victory of sorts by maintaining its own output to retain market share.
Quote
"People don't drive to work twice because it's more economical to do so."
http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-price-three-reasons-it-is-not-recovering
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #647 on: September 26, 2015, 05:08:23 PM »
Ref #621 and 627 above....

California air regulators readopt fuel standard to fight climate change
Quote
California air quality officials on Friday approved updates to a key climate change rule that will force reductions in carbon pollution from gasoline and diesel fuel over the next five years.

The vote Friday by the Air Resources Board to readopt its low-carbon fuel standard will require California to achieve at least a 10% cut in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2020.

The move is one indication of how California officials will use existing regulations, rather than new laws, to continue their climate change efforts after Gov. Jerry Brown and Democratic lawmakers were forced this month to drop legislative proposals to cut petroleum use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
...
The market-based program imposes a gradually declining cap on the amount of carbon generated from "well to wheel," including oil extraction, fuel production and distribution. Companies that produce gasoline, diesel and other fuels must demonstrate each year that they have met carbon-reduction targets, either directly or by purchasing credits from clean-fuel producers that surpass those standards.
http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-0925-carbon-fuels-20150925-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #648 on: September 29, 2015, 01:22:04 AM »
You have an oil glut, and onshore storage is getting full.  What do you do?  Store it offshore, in supertankers, of course!  :o

Oil Traders May Look to the Sea for Profit Amid Price Collapse
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-27/oil-traders-may-look-to-the-sea-for-profit-amid-price-collapse

(I'm still waiting for companies to switch to storing it back underground....  ::))
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #649 on: September 29, 2015, 03:20:26 AM »
Quote
You have an oil glut, and onshore storage is getting full.  What do you do?  Store it offshore, in supertankers, of course!  :o

That could lead to a SHORT TERM spike DOWN once the tankers are full.  'Cause once those baby's are full.....there ain't no other place to store it.
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