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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #750 on: December 18, 2015, 01:06:35 PM »
Put yourself in the shoes of an oil and gas executive (which means you have no morals...and you could care less about society).

You have an asset in the ground.....that is losing value the longer it stays in the ground...because the world is moving away from fossil fuels.  Do you...(a) hope that its value increases in the future or (b) suck as much out as possible....because you know the value in the future is going to diminish?

THAT....seems to be where the problem lies right now.  And we have many of the oil countries of the middle east already moving to solar.

This is NOT a pretty picture for (1)  middle eastern oil countries (2) Russia (3) states in the US reliant on coal/oil/gas like North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma.

Watch for banks to come under increasing pressure in the months ahead....especially any of the larger banks that have a high percentage of oil and gas loans outstanding.  Bank regulators will be watching closely to make sure those banks "reserve" enough on their balance sheets for loans on their books that will "go bad" in the future (future bad debts).  The scrutiny of the banks has already started in the equity markets for publicly held companies....as noted in the article just posted about Jim Chanos.



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crandles

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #751 on: December 18, 2015, 04:05:53 PM »
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/16/new-form-climate-denialism-dont-celebrate-yet-cop-21

Discusses a new form of denialism.

However, there was also this

Quote
And here, there are some interesting facts that most people don’t know. In a recent study that I did with my colleague Richard Heede, we examined the potential impact of using the proven reserves of fossil fuels in the world. We discovered a surprising fact: if all the reserves in the hands of investor-owned companies were to be burned, we would not exceed the 2C (3.6F) target.

What puts the world at risk are the reserves in the hands of nation-states – which are mostly coal – and the continued exploration for more oil and gas by private companies like Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, BP and Shell.

based on
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300637

Quote
Scientists have argued that no more than 275 GtC (IPCC, 2013) of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels of 746 GtC can be produced in this century if the world is to restrict anthropogenic climate change to ≤2 °C. This has raised concerns about the risk of these reserves becoming “stranded assets” and creating a dangerous “carbon bubble” with serious impacts on global financial markets, leading in turn to discussions of appropriate investor and consumer actions. However, previous studies have not always clearly distinguished between reserves and resources, nor differentiated reserves held by investor-owned and state-owned companies with the capital, infrastructure, and capacity to develop them in the short term from those held by nation-states that may or may not have such capacity.

given that the majority of the world's reserves are coal resources owned by governments with little capacity to extract them in the near term, we suggest that the more immediate urgency lies with the private sector, and that investor and consumer pressure should focus on phasing out these companies’ on-going exploration programs.

Not really sure to what extent, if any, this should make us query any belief we might have about stranded assets and a dangerous carbon bubble affecting markets.

Seems to imply that if companies keep on spending significant amounts on exploration then yes we would get to a situation of having a problem with stranded assets. But why would we expect them to do that?

Quote
We focus on the seventy companies and eight government-run industries that produced 63% of the world’s fossil fuels from 1750 to 2010 (Heede, 2014), and have the technological and financial capacity to develop these reserves. While any reserve analysis is subject to uncertainty, we demonstrate that production of these reported reserves will result in emissions of 440 GtC of carbon dioxide, or 160% of the remaining 275 GtC carbon budget. Of the 440 GtC total, the 42 investor-owned oil, gas, and coal companies hold reserves with potential emissions of 44 GtC

44GtC seems surprisingly little. If that is representative of 63% of supply and the world is burning at a rate of 10 GtC a year, it suggests the companies reserves represent around 7 years supply. I can't imagine the rate of use falling to 0 over next 14 years in a straight line, so there doesn't appear to be a problem with company reserves being used. So if it isn't with company reserves, what is this asset bubble theory based on?

OTOH I do get impression this report may well be pushing a view that governments with reserves are not in a position to develop them in the short term. While possibly true as they suggest for a lot of coal, that doesn't seem like a description you would give to Saudi oil.




Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #752 on: December 20, 2015, 02:22:31 PM »
Speaking of Saudi oil...  :)

Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince has privately outlined plans to reshape the economy to withstand low oil prices, sources said, in what could be the biggest policy shake-up since the kingdom's economy was last hurt by cheap oil over a decade ago.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/saudi-arabia-plans-major-economic-shake-amid-oil-slump-sources-n482731
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oren

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #753 on: December 20, 2015, 07:46:46 PM »
I must say that the decline in oil price and in energy stocks shouldn't be cheered so quickly. As it happens, global oil consumption is on the rise, and the price of oil is dropping because supply is currently on an even faster rise (thanks to investments made when oil was above $100 a barrel).

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

 So the world APPEARS to be heading towards a transition away from fossil fuels and especially oil, but it really hasn't done so yet, and the lower oil price goes, the slower the transition will be. When you see oil price falling for several years while consumption is also falling consistently, then it's cheering time.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #754 on: December 21, 2015, 02:08:02 PM »
Quote
I must say that the decline in oil price and in energy stocks shouldn't be cheered so quickly. As it happens, global oil consumption is on the rise

Although....I think the RATE of rise is on the decline....and that has to happen before the actual USE declines.

With increased economic activity in Africa....and now in what are normally considered "emerging markets" (much of Asia...eastern Europe, etc)....it will be interesting to see where actual use of oil goes over the next 5 years.

I do believe that oil has one more "run" left in it at some point.  As the price has dropped over the last 6 months....that should drive exploration DOWN....and that should set up oil for a run UP in price over the coming years.

This truly is a FANTASTIC ISSUE to watch play out from so many directions:
1)  Supply/demand
2)  Change in the entire energy comples
3)  Change in transportation systems and what powers them

In the LONG TERM oil from fossil fuels is dead....but the intermediate term swings could be ENORMOUS.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #755 on: December 22, 2015, 12:39:14 AM »
U.S. East Coasters have changed their minds about offshore drilling.

As decision nears, opposition builds to offshore drilling along Atlantic Coast
Quote
The Obama administration is expected to finalize by early spring a plan that could allow limited oil and gas development off the coasts of four Southeastern states — Virginia, North and South Carolina, and Georgia. All four have heavily supported drilling in the past. But lately, resistance to the plan appears to be growing, particularly in coastal towns where politicians and business leaders are expressing doubts about whether oil and gas can deliver the economic benefits the industry’s backers claim.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/as-decision-nears-opposition-builds-to-offshore-drilling-along-atlantic-coast/2015/12/20/d438c856-a5c4-11e5-b53d-972e2751f433_story.html
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #756 on: December 22, 2015, 01:54:50 PM »
Solar and wind continue to get cheaper.....and cars are more and more going electric.  BAD COMBINATION if you are an oil and gas company.  Two good short videos...

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/12/21/guest-post-zachary-shahan-on-the-renewable-advantage/#more-28060

Exxon (XOM) looks like it will have TWO PATHS to it's future stock performance.  Both of them horrible I'm afraid.  Either it finds a "bounce" at the $56 - 62ish range in the short term...and bounces up for 12 - 18 months towards $90ish.....OR.....it doesn't find a bounce in the short term till it gets to $47 - $55 range.....THEN bounces up to the $90 - $105ish range....and then collapses.

This is going to be one UGLY ending to an industry on Wall Street over the next 5 years (and its already been ugly.....but its going to get worse).  And no....I DON'T mean that XOM or Chevron or any other LARGE oil company is going bankrupt in the next 5 years.  I DO MEAN that Wall Street will NOT support its price in the market....and its stock price will collapse.  It will still run as an ongoing company for quite some time.  But it will get CRUSHED in the stock market.

The ONE THING I keep my eyes peeled for over the next several weeks to 3 months.....is the performance of the big banks.  They "appear" weak....and I'm wondering just how much exposure some of them have to oil and gas companies (via loans to them).  This "changing" of the energy complex is going to make some companies HUGE WINNERS....and others.....HUGE LOSERS.

For a finance geek.....this is about as interesting as it gets. 
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #757 on: December 22, 2015, 03:55:35 PM »
Wild swings in the price of a commodity is a characteristic you will always see when supply is barely able to match demand. This is exactly what we are seeing in the liquid fuels market and we will continue to see this behavior into the future. While there will be big losers and winners and this will cause a great deal of financial havoc, it does not herald the death of the industry.

We are irrevocably stuck in this supply/demand dance with liquid fuels. When supply struggles, we will see huge spikes in the price of fuels which will allow the profitable exploitation of nonconventional sources. When the prices drop, we will see a shake out in the industry just as we are now witnessing with the shale oil and gas companies.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2015, 11:24:20 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #758 on: December 22, 2015, 04:05:26 PM »
There are some nonconventional sources of oil that i believe will die a quick death, regardless of the price. Tar sand oil is being shipped in massive trainloads from Canada to the refineries in northwest Indiana. The refineries are discovering that the caustic nature of this stuff is destroying valves and other portions of the refinery in as little as a year. These valves would normally last for 30 years with conventional oil. The costs of refining are skyrocketing and there is an increasing safety concern.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #759 on: December 22, 2015, 05:39:04 PM »
The continued oversupply of oil suggests to me that demand is peaking.  Any rise in oil price now will only increase the drive toward renewables.

Oil prices keep falling — [these are the reasons] why
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/21/oil-prices-keep-falling-this-is-the-reason-why/
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #760 on: December 22, 2015, 06:11:47 PM »
Quote
it does not herald the death of the industry

The "mismatch" of supply and demand in ANY INDUSTRY does not herald the death of the industry.  That is NOT why the fossil fuels industry is dying.  It is dying because:

1)  Solar, wind, and other RENEWABLE products are catching up in price (in some areas are now LESS than coal or nat gas).  Fossil fuels won't be able to compete because they are losing....and will ultimately lose altogether....the "cost game."

2)  People....primarily investors....are now "close enough to the end of the tunnel" to understand that the "light ahead" is a world without fossil fuels.  Wall Street will "hurry along" the process WITHIN 5 YEARS on the major oil companies.  The oil companies.....will continue to operate for a LONG TIME.  Some of them "morphing" into various other types of "energy" or "chemical" companies.  But the MEGATREND towards RENEWABLE will swallow up companies that don't make oil in a RENEWABLE fashion (several companies now make oil products from algae).

3)  Just like the tar sands of Canada......other fossil fuels are HORRIBLE FOR HUMANS.  And that "cost" is becoming all to clear (or in the case of China smog......"all to smoggy").

4) CO2.  Yes....our old friend CO2 is helping to kill the fossil fuel companies....ever so slowly....but ever so surely.  The world is starting to run walk away from fossil fuels.....and in the coming years.....that will turn into running away from fossil fuels....as the changes brought on by global warming become ever more obvius.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #761 on: December 22, 2015, 06:47:15 PM »
Demand peaking?
Maybe I live in the wrong country?

First, I must update my previous post:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg66506.html#msg66506
Sweden has now extended their subsidies on E85 to 2018. But the damage is already done.
http://spbi.se/blog/2015/12/16/beskedet/ Use translate if you're interested.

And for the rest of our sales, they have increased.
http://spbi.se/blog/2015/12/18/e85-forsaljningen-fortsatter-att-falla/ Same advice as above.

In November, Petrol sales dropped by 1% compared to November last year. Total for the year up to and including November it dropped by 2%.
Diesel, including HVO, increased by 11%. Total for the year, an increase by 8%.
E85 dropped by 56%. Total for the year it dropped by 38%.
(Heating oil increased by 12%(?). Total for the year it dropped by 9%. )

I don't know the numbers for HVO, but it is a small part of the diesel sales. In total for the year the volume increase is 246800m³.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2015, 07:07:36 PM by Sleepy »

folke_kelm

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #762 on: December 22, 2015, 09:01:58 PM »
Yesterday the Göteborgs posten, gothenburgs regional newspaper published an article about swedens plans to buy electrical and hybrid bussesinstead of biogas driven vehicles. Most busses in Sweden nowadays are in fact driven by biogas.
This seems to be a matter of great concern to the producers of biogas. They see a total of 59% of their market vanish.
This is a way of one dimensional thinking. There are way more ways to use biogas and, for this case E85 than only for fuel for cars, busses and so on, but nobody in Sweden is thinking about it, not to name speaking about it.
In Germany there are plenty af small biogas driven power plants, biogas is not at all used as fuel but to generate electricity by demand. The huge advantage with biogas is, that you are able to produce electricity, when wind and solar do not generate, you are able to store it until you need it. The same is possible with E85, but that requires a different kind of thinking. Small is beautiful instead of the common big powerplants.
Why not install small generators at home, driven by biogas and/or E85, providing electricity  and heat for one household or small villages (in my case 16 houses)?

Sweden has still a very long way to go, still has to learn.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #763 on: December 23, 2015, 05:30:18 AM »
Biogas needs careful attention. Cleaning the gas is a big deal, corrosion is a problem, and in colder climates, for some reason, people underestimate insulation needs on the digesters. Temperatures in the digester need monitored, as do a bunch of other parameters, and what you are feeding livestock is important. Unsurprisingly, if the pigs fall ill, so can your digester. Better monitor, for example, aflatoxin level in your supposedly clean feed, even if certified by USDA or other.

Sleepy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #764 on: December 23, 2015, 06:03:32 AM »
There are problems with everything. But we do need to flip every stone out there and use what we have sensibly, with intelligence. Todays economic thinking is fossilzed. If we can't change that we're lost.

One intelligent use of HC:
We can use e.g. Propane, Propylene and Ethane in our heat pumps. That way we can get rid of a lot of those patented blends used today, I've personally been testing Propylene as a replacement for a air to air heat pump using r410a. The problem I ran into was that Ethane was ridiculously expensive here. Ethane is needed to raise the pressure to match r410a.

This is nothing new, we started using HC over a hundred years ago.
And here comes a twist, you can have better COP compared to patented blends...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #765 on: December 25, 2015, 03:26:23 PM »
Gazprom Is Losing Its Market Muscle
Competition forces the Russian energy giant to make nice.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-23/gazprom-is-losing-its-market-muscle
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #766 on: December 26, 2015, 05:24:26 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

JimD

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #767 on: December 27, 2015, 07:09:58 PM »
I guess I have to repeat a phrase I made in this blog a few years ago - with a little twist.

I said then that Coal is not dead and it is not dying.  These few years later we can probably say  - finally - that coal has caught a cold.  But, especially in light of the fact that while some thought Chinese coal consumption had dropped significantly they had actually hidden vastly higher coal consumption than reported from us and that our 'friends' in India intend to double coal consumption, it clearly is not dying still.

Oil is not sick and it is not dying either. 

Oil prices are likely to stay low for what now looks like at least a few years - some are saying much longer - and there is good reason to think this.  Demand is down not because folks are switching to renewables but due to the global economic turn down and a very high supply situation.  Supply is exacerbated by the Saudi attack on the frackers and other high cost producers, over drilling due to an excess of capital looking for returns, producers coming back on the market after political issues, and such.  Including tactics like this...which will increase available supplies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/business/energy-environment/hoping-for-a-price-surge-oil-companies-keep-wells-in-reserve.html?ref=business&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&smtyp=cur&_r=1

One very important thing to keep in mind is that some misguided cheerleading that this situation will 'help' the rollout of renewables is just crazy talk.  This idea I guess is based upon the fantasy that there is going to be an assessment of the external costs of the use of fossil fuels upon the industry which will make them unaffordable or there will be some epiphany about the evils of their use - but this defies logic.  The tougher the economic or development situation is the more likely that the decision will be made to take the least cost option - and external costs have never been counted so far in that calculation.  And business will say 'Try and make me.'

Cheap oil (and other fossil fuels) will compete strongly with renewables in a host of situations and this will slow their deployment.  All one has to do is look at the automobile industry to see what effect low prices for oil is doing.  There is literally nothing happening in the oil and natural gas industries which would indicate that there will be a large drop in consumption anytime in the next 10-15 years.  Need I point out that, like the Paris farce, we simply are already out of time.

Minor progress is being made on coal consumption - very minor - but the danger is that as collapse progresses it fights against the elimination of coal use due to its very low costs and often nearby availability.  To give you an idea how people are about this I know an English guy who makes over $300K a year who likes to go hiking and fishing near his house.  The path he takes goes by an abandoned coal mine where there are large amounts of coal lying about still.  So he takes a backpack with him and fills it up on the way home to use in his wood/coal burning stove.  There are thousands of poor folks (and some not so poor) here in the US who do the equivalent and undoubtedly some millions globally who are in the same boat. 

Lastly, always keep in mind that you cannot solve any of the big problems we have as long as the population is growing rapidly and the economic systems are based upon endless growth and rising affluence. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Theta

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #768 on: December 28, 2015, 12:44:19 AM »
I guess I have to repeat a phrase I made in this blog a few years ago - with a little twist.

I said then that Coal is not dead and it is not dying.  These few years later we can probably say  - finally - that coal has caught a cold.  But, especially in light of the fact that while some thought Chinese coal consumption had dropped significantly they had actually hidden vastly higher coal consumption than reported from us and that our 'friends' in India intend to double coal consumption, it clearly is not dying still.

Oil is not sick and it is not dying either. 

Oil prices are likely to stay low for what now looks like at least a few years - some are saying much longer - and there is good reason to think this.  Demand is down not because folks are switching to renewables but due to the global economic turn down and a very high supply situation.  Supply is exacerbated by the Saudi attack on the frackers and other high cost producers, over drilling due to an excess of capital looking for returns, producers coming back on the market after political issues, and such.  Including tactics like this...which will increase available supplies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/business/energy-environment/hoping-for-a-price-surge-oil-companies-keep-wells-in-reserve.html?ref=business&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&smtyp=cur&_r=1

One very important thing to keep in mind is that some misguided cheerleading that this situation will 'help' the rollout of renewables is just crazy talk.  This idea I guess is based upon the fantasy that there is going to be an assessment of the external costs of the use of fossil fuels upon the industry which will make them unaffordable or there will be some epiphany about the evils of their use - but this defies logic.  The tougher the economic or development situation is the more likely that the decision will be made to take the least cost option - and external costs have never been counted so far in that calculation.  And business will say 'Try and make me.'

Cheap oil (and other fossil fuels) will compete strongly with renewables in a host of situations and this will slow their deployment.  All one has to do is look at the automobile industry to see what effect low prices for oil is doing.  There is literally nothing happening in the oil and natural gas industries which would indicate that there will be a large drop in consumption anytime in the next 10-15 years.  Need I point out that, like the Paris farce, we simply are already out of time.

Minor progress is being made on coal consumption - very minor - but the danger is that as collapse progresses it fights against the elimination of coal use due to its very low costs and often nearby availability.  To give you an idea how people are about this I know an English guy who makes over $300K a year who likes to go hiking and fishing near his house.  The path he takes goes by an abandoned coal mine where there are large amounts of coal lying about still.  So he takes a backpack with him and fills it up on the way home to use in his wood/coal burning stove.  There are thousands of poor folks (and some not so poor) here in the US who do the equivalent and undoubtedly some millions globally who are in the same boat. 

Lastly, always keep in mind that you cannot solve any of the big problems we have as long as the population is growing rapidly and the economic systems are based upon endless growth and rising affluence.

Very well said, but it seems that the current economic situation hints at us hitting the Seneca cliff soon, thus oil and coal will remain in the ground due to diminishing returns
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #769 on: December 28, 2015, 02:45:44 AM »
Chickens are starting to come home to roost.  This is just the VERY BEGINNING of a VERY LONG PROCESS.  This is just round one.  The process won't get REALLY BAD for several more years....AFTER the oil price has bounced UP for a couple years....and then fall off the edge of a cliff.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13405498/1/jpmorgan-citigroup-see-rising-toll-from-sour-energy-market.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

A couple weeks ago I had noted that banks will start to "set aside more loan reserves" for loans to mostly small but some mid sized oil and gas companies.  Well....they are starting to set aside those loan reserves now:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13405498/1/jpmorgan-citigroup-see-rising-toll-from-sour-energy-market.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #770 on: December 28, 2015, 02:52:22 AM »
Here's a good article on coal.  The reason I am posting it here.....is because THIS is the future of oil and gas as well.  They will have to wait LONGER than coal....but that light at the end of their tunnel....IS INDEED A TRAIN.  If anyone likes what coal has done as an investment.....they are going to LOVE what oil and gas will be doing in the future:

https://news.vice.com/article/the-us-coal-industry-is-shuttering-mines-and-its-market-value-is-plummeting-says-a-new-study

Anyone who thinks that coal....or oil....or natural gas.....have a good future, should love the linked video:

"It's only a flesh wound."
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #771 on: December 28, 2015, 12:42:50 PM »
The article below lays out the problems that "frackers" have in this market....at the current price.  A few months ago...I thought oil might get into the high $20's.  I don't feel that way anymore....as production cuts appear poised to kick into high gear.

Interesting article...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/shale-s-running-out-of-survival-tricks-as-opec-ramps-up-pressure
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Theta

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #772 on: December 28, 2015, 12:47:28 PM »
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #773 on: December 28, 2015, 01:19:36 PM »
Scanned through Gails presentation briefly.  Will look into it more closely when I get time.  But one thing to consider.....and this is my OPINION (based on the facts that I see presently...AND project into the future).....is that electricity AND power in general will continue to get CHEAPER and CHEAPER in a growing world of renewable energy.

If you look at the cost curve over the past decade (cost to produce energy from solar or wind) it is STAGGERING.  And it is also one of the reasons (although not the primary reason right now) that the price of oil is so low.  Remember....prices are "set at the margin" (the proverbial "last user").  Even though renewables make up a small percentage of total use now....they are "nipping at the edges" of the fossil fuel market.  As the cost of production continue to DROP for solar and wind....that will only worsen the picture for oil and gas.

I am NOT an investment advisor....but two of the best investments for the next decade (in my mind) are renewable energy AND basic materials (the basic materials from miners that are needed to make wind and solar).

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #774 on: December 28, 2015, 06:11:07 PM »

....I am NOT an investment advisor....but two of the best investments for the next decade (in my mind) are renewable energy AND basic materials (the basic materials from miners that are needed to make wind and solar).

And thus we see a perfect example of the wrong way to approach dealing with this existential problem.  The world is full of companies, investment advisers, BAU advocates, rich pukes, and the like who still think this is about making a dollar.  This is the same thought process which drags out for decades the use of fossil fuels.   Coal is going to be a major factor for at least another 20 years and oil/gas much longer than that - because one can make lots of money from them.  It is an extreme understatement to say if we allow that to happen it will be a disaster.  That light from the train you think you see just shows us how behind schedule the train is running.  It will arrive too late for us to board and make our desired destination.  BAU approaches will not work - that train left the station 20 years ago.  The old ways are dead and we will be too if we don't adapt to reality.

I always find it puzzling when folks think that the cost of renewables are independent of fossil fuels.  And even more so when they extrapolate those cost curves out to infinity.  Much of the cost of renewable infrastructure is directly related to the cost of fossil fuels.  All the way from mine equipment, transportation of minerals, manufacturing materials, assembly, further transportation, installation and such.  Fossil fuels are a huge part of those costs and they have plummeted.  Moore's Law does not apply to renewable infrastructure.  A further huge boost to renewable infrastructure has been the huge subsidies put in place to create it from easy money being made available to blow economic bubbles and also direct tax credits. 

Even if one for some reason believes that we can run this global civilization completely on renewables (a bat shit crazy idea in my opinion - it is just head stuck in the sand BAU thinking) it is obvious that adding 2+ billion to the global population would have a huge negative impact on that idea.  Not to mention that such a change over would take decades to execute.  And that would be far too late in any case.

Renewable technology is not on the critical path to a solution to climate change, carrying capacity and over population.  It will be useful if we 'solve' those problems certainly, but we do a huge disservice to our chances of solving them when we encourage folks to assume there is an easy way out of the dilemma we are in.  We have never yet put serious effort towards the critical path issues and until we do we have no chance of solving the core problems.
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #775 on: December 29, 2015, 12:19:36 AM »
Saudis Plan Unprecedented Subsidy Cuts to Counter Oil Plunge
Quote
Confronting a drop in oil prices and mounting regional turmoil, Saudi Arabia reduced energy subsidies and allocated the biggest part of government spending in next year’s budget to defense and security.

Authorities announced increases to the prices of fuel, electricity and water as part of a plan to restructure subsidies within five years. The government intends to cut spending next year and gradually privatize some state-owned entities and introduce value-added taxation as well as a levy on tobacco.
...
“This is the beginning of the end of the era of free money,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of London-based consulting firm Cornerstone Global Associates. “Saudi society will have to get used to a new way of working with the government. This is a wake-up call for both Saudi society and the government that things are changing.”
...
The new measures are the beginning of a “big program that the economic council will launch,” Economy and Planning Minister Adel Fakeih told reporters in Riyadh. The subsidy cuts won’t have a “large effect” on people with low or middle income, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/saudis-plan-unprecedented-subsidy-cuts-to-counter-oil-plunge-iiqbmg4x
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #776 on: December 29, 2015, 05:29:49 AM »
The House of Saud totters again. The princeling has an expensive war, and the king has his imported slave populations to worry about ... and they will bear the brunt of the subsidy cuts. Not to mention the Shia.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #777 on: December 29, 2015, 02:16:02 PM »
First off....you really should READ MY POST BEFORE commenting on it.  That would be a big help.  I don't say that to be "snippy".  After reading your post CLOSELY....I really don't know WHERE you got some of your comments.  It certainly WASN'T anything I said in that post...or any other post of mine.

Quote
And thus we see a perfect example of the wrong way to approach dealing with this existential problem.  The world is full of companies, investment advisers, BAU advocates, rich pukes, and the like who still think this is about making a dollar.  This is the same thought process which drags out for decades the use of fossil fuels.

I'll TRY to answer this....but your comment is very "vague"...and I have no idea WHICH "existential problem" you are talking about.  Are you talking about over population?  Are you talking about not enough food?  Not enough water?  Not enough energy?  All of the above?  Are you going to make me guess?  Could you be any more vague?

The only "large issue" I was commenting on was the DIRECTION OF ENERGY PRODUCTION (a decrease in fossil fuels....and an increase in renewable energy).  By the way....if you DON'T think that renewable energy is the answer....then you have a REALLY, REALLY, short time line.  If renewables is NOT the answer.....then earth can continue "business as usual" (BAU) and check out in 150 years or so.  That is NOT something I would propose.

Oh....and the "rich pukes"....that was sweet:)  I come from a mid/lower income family.  I always bought my own car.  Went to work at 6 am in the morning BEFORE high school started so I could afford my own car, insurance, and gas....all of which I PAID FOR.  I also paid MY OWN WAY through college....yes it took me 5 years....but I paid for all of it myself.  You see....I really AM a "fiscal conservative"....and a social moderate.  Thus....I am an Independent voter.  And no...I am not a "rich puke".  Sorry to saw off the limb you so quickly climbed out on.

Quote
Coal is going to be a major factor for at least another 20 years and oil/gas much longer than that - because one can make lots of money from them.  It is an extreme understatement to say if we allow that to happen it will be a disaster.

Glad to see that you have BACKED OFF your thoughts of coal being in significant use for "many decades"....down to 2.  THAT is real progress:).  But unfortunately.....coal will be around for a lot longer than I would like (two days is two days too many).  Yes...coal will be around in Asia for a lot longer than in the US.  As an INDEPENDENT VOTER....I encourage EVERYONE in the US to vote for whoever is the democratic candidate next year....because ALL THE REPUBLICANS want to do away with the EPA....and keep BIG COAL AROUND AS LONG AS THEY CAN.  THAT...would not be a good thing. VOTE...VOTE...VOTE. 

Coal use in the US has dropped from 50% 5 years ago to 30% now....and it continues to DROP LIKE A ROCK.  That is also progress.  It also looks like China "may have" peaked in its coal use.  THAT...is good news if it is indeed the case.

Quote
That light from the train you think you see just shows us how behind schedule the train is running.  It will arrive too late for us to board and make our desired destination.  BAU approaches will not work - that train left the station 20 years ago.  The old ways are dead and we will be too if we don't adapt to reality.

That "light from the train" I see.....is the light from the train that is GOING TO RUN OVER FOSSIL FUELS (again...read the post).  BAU would be:  Keep using coal, keep using nat gas, keep using oil, and by all means DON'T use many renewables.  THAT...is BAU.  And THAT...would NOT be a good thing.

Quote
I always find it puzzling when folks think that the cost of renewables are independent of fossil fuels.  And even more so when they extrapolate those cost curves out to infinity.  Much of the cost of renewable infrastructure is directly related to the cost of fossil fuels.  All the way from mine equipment, transportation of minerals, manufacturing materials, assembly, further transportation, installation and such.  Fossil fuels are a huge part of those costs and they have plummeted.  Moore's Law does not apply to renewable infrastructure.  A further huge boost to renewable infrastructure has been the huge subsidies put in place to create it from easy money being made available to blow economic bubbles and also direct tax credits.
 

Where in the world did you come up with me thinking that the cost of renewables are independent of fossil fuels?  ESPECIALLY WHEN I SAID THAT COST WILL ULTIMATELY KILL FOSSIL FUELS.  That's a head scratcher.

COST IS CLEARLY a HUGE deal between fossil fuels and renewables.  HUGE.  And it is going to KILL FOSSIL FUELS.  Look back ten years to see where renewables were.  Now....extrapolate forward another 10 years (even using a SMALLER annual decreases).  FOSSIL FUELS ARE GOING TO GET KILLED ON PRICE/COST.  Can I say it any more clearly than that?  THAT...is not "BAU".

Keep in mind....that FOSSIL FUELS gets a LOT MORE INCENTIVES than renewables.  If I were king (King Donald Trump?....yikkkkes).....I would have a "fee and dividend" system like that proposed by Dr. Hansen.  In other words....more "fully price" actual COST of fossil fuels.  Yes...fossil fuels ARE USED for mining (now...but NOT in the distant future).  Fossil fuels are GOING AWAY.  We can quibble over how long that will take....but they ARE GOING AWAY.

Quote
Even if one for some reason one believes that we can run this global civilization completely on renewables (a bat shit crazy idea in my opinion - it is just head stuck in the sand BAU thinking) it is obvious that adding 2+ billion to the global population would have a huge negative impact on that idea.  Not to mention that such a change over would take decades to execute.  And that would be far too late in any case.

I have some disappointing news for you:  If this "global civilization" CAN'T run on renewables at some point in the future....we.....BY DEFINITION...... ARE TOAST.  That apparently comes as a news flash to you.  Sorry to ruin your day.  Since we have burned through millions of years of fossil fuels....in only a couple hundred years....the math is NOT in favor of using fossil fuels for much longer:)  Mankind is VERY YOUNG....and VERY STUPID (remember....Donald Trump IS leading the Republican Party...need I say more how stupid we American's are?).

Fortunately.....there are many companies that NOW PRODUCE some "oils" in a renewable process (from algae).  In fact....the whole ENERGY SECTOR is FULL of companies trying all sorts of things.  In 50 years.....people will look back at the "renewables" we are now using and they will likely look like "wale oil" (incredibly outdated).  Should be have started on this journey back in the 1960's when a group of scientists warned US President Lyndon Johnson of the future dangers?  Yes.  Should be have started in 1988 when Dr. Hansen warned the US Congress of the future dangers?  Yes.  Should be have started in the early 1990's when the United Nations first warned the world?  Yes.  Should we work hard NOW even though there is a FAKE NEWS CHANNEL (FOX NEWS) that WE ALLOW to lie and mislead about the dangers of global warming for the last 25 years?  HELL YES.

Quote
Renewable technology is not on the critical path to a solution to climate change, carrying capacity and over population.  It will be useful if we 'solve' those problems certainly, but we do a huge disservice to our chances of solving them when we encourage folks to assume there is an easy way out of the dilemma we are in.  We have never yet put serious effort towards the critical path issues and until we do we have no chance of solving the core problems.

Renewable technology IS indeed....ONE of the solutions to climate change and carrying capacity.  It is NOT a solution for over population (unless we can get the solar panels to somehow magically disperse IUD's or condoms or birth control pills to the like of Bristol Palin and everyone else:).

Over population IS the 64,000 pound gorilla that NOBODY wants to talk about:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/world-population-70000-bc-to-2010.html

I put that chart on my website FOR A REASON.  People SHOULD BE terrified at the population of earth NOW....and HORRIFIED by increasing it.

There are MANY ISSUES that I did NOT deal with in my last post....the one that you commented on.  Maybe you were having a "bad day".  Maybe your soccer team lost.  I have no idea.  I also have NO IDEA where you got some of the things you "thought" I said....or am (sorry to disappoint you IF you though I am a "rich puke":)

Humanity has to deal with a LOT of things for us humans to advance as a CIVILIATION (being "civilized"....in our communication would be a "good start").

The issues we face are many:  (1) population is likely the biggest (2) global warming (3) income inequality (the economic systems have a LONG WAY TO GO.......the "incentives" and "disincentives" are NOT well aligned (4) EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION (humans are HORRIBLE at it), (5) better legal system, etc...etc...etc.   The ONLY issue I was dealing with was the DEATH OF FOSSIL FUELS....and the RISE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY (in MANY FORMS).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #778 on: December 31, 2015, 12:39:58 AM »
At long last:  Oil subsidy cuts!

Quote
The Saudi government posted a record budget deficit of $98 billion Monday before announcing cuts to the gas subsidy that went into effect Tuesday, as well as plans to privatize state corporations and slash other subsidies. The government provided about $11 billion in pre-tax gasoline subsidies this year, according to the International Monetary Fund,

Angola also reduced subsidies this year, cutting them entirely in May to save an estimated 4 percent of the country's budget. Egypt, Gabon, Bangladesh, UAE, Oman and Indonesia also approved deep cuts to or abolished subsidies this year. Yemen, Malaysia, Libya and Iran made cuts last year.

Other countries may simply opt not to pass on savings from lower oil costs to citizens — as may be the case in Guyana, according to local media.

The cuts could be the death knell for the once-common public energy subsidy. While the falling oil prices may have forced the issue, many countries had plans to reduce the benefit over time. Experts have long criticized such subsidies for regressively benefiting the highest earners, encouraging waste and displacing other social programs.

"Falling oil prices could make sure reforms both more urgent and, possibly, politically easier to implement," the IMF said in a report this year.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/30/where-gasoline-prices-are-going-up-as-oil-falls.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #779 on: December 31, 2015, 05:03:42 PM »
Bill McKibben: "Next shoe drops in #exxonknew scandal--they calculated sea level rise into their new facilities, while denying it"
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/682546875795390464

Big Oil braced for global warming while it fought regulations
http://graphics.latimes.com/oil-operations/
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #780 on: December 31, 2015, 05:24:55 PM »
Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse
Quote
- Pipeline, terminals near St. Louis shut before expected flood
- Ozark shutdown seen adding to record Cushing oil supplies

The worst flooding across the U.S. Midwest in four years has shut some oil pipelines and terminals near St. Louis, potentially swelling a glut of crude and extending this year’s price slide.

Five miles of the Mississippi River and 50 miles of the Illinois River have been shut, according to the U.S. Coast Guard website. The flooding is the worst since May 2011, when rising water on the Mississippi and its tributaries threatened refinery and chemical operations and disrupted shipping.

So far, the biggest shutdown is Enbridge Inc.’s Ozark oil pipeline, which was booked to carry about 200,000 barrels a day this month to Wood River, Illinois, from Cushing, Oklahoma. The outage of the section under the Mississippi River may further add to stockpiles at Cushing that reached a record high last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/floods-shutting-midwest-oil-pipeline-seen-worsening-record-glut
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #781 on: January 03, 2016, 03:48:06 PM »
Buddy

As a general rule I don't read any of your posts BECAUSE YOU TALK IN CAPITALS all the time (which any one can tell you is one of the most unacceptable behaviors in internet communications).  And if I do start to read one I almost always stop when I hit the first set of CAPITALS.  So that should tell you a lot.  In your latest message I made it to the point where you started screaming once again so I don't know what other is below that has you so excited that you can't help screaming again.  There might even be something worth responding too, I kind of doubt it though, and I am not going to read posts like that to find out.

In general I don't read posts from authors who write like you do nor posts from those who have a history of not providing analysis and substantive comment.  It is not worth my time.

I presume that you are all excited by some comment of mine heaping scorn upon the Green BAU faiths.  Well rest assured if that is the case it is not going to stop.  Such adherents are just as dangerous for humanity as the purveyors of fossil fuel addiction.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #782 on: January 03, 2016, 04:09:49 PM »
Jim D:

Good.  It seems we are of like minds about the other.  That makes things very easy.

You will have a much easier time finding the truth....if you LOOK FOR IT (caps..:)....for emphasis).

Have a great day.....

Buddy
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #783 on: January 03, 2016, 04:12:58 PM »
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/01/wolf-richter-americas-largest-utility-jacks-up-rates-the-most-since-2006-despite-total-collapse-of-natural-gas-prices.html

Two aspects of the power generation business are displayed here.  One is the incredible costs of building and maintaining the systems.  Note how this plays into the net metering debate.  As those better off install rooftop solar it pushes more and more of the costs to those less well off.  This gives power to those arguing for less advantageous net metering rates.  While one can argue that the subsidy entailed in the net metering rates is beneficial to the growth of the solar industry the result of how it is set, like many fees and taxes, it falls disproportionaly on the less well off.  This gives a lot of political power to those getting their salaries from the black BAU crowd.

Another issue it demonstrates is the inherent problem of having private ownership of utilities and their focus on profits and rent extraction - which in utilities cases in the US are guaranteed and managed in a govt/corporate partnership.  Corruption is endemic and those in government making the decisions are frequently large beneficiaries of campaign contributions, jobs and other perks. 

To sort this situation out would require extensive amounts of time and a change of the way we do business.  Time we do not have and the prospect of changing the way we run this country is not in the cards either.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #784 on: January 03, 2016, 05:00:35 PM »
With the US/EU centric view of what is going on in the world holding sway most times it is good to take a look at what low oil prices are doing to the commodity producing countries.  It is not so rosy and the effects of how these countries manage - or not- will ripple throughout the world.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/30/oil-iran-saudi-arabia-russia-venezuela-nigeria-libya

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-executes-47-sheikh-nimr-shiite-cleric.html

Dramatically increasing poverty, civil war, regular war, etc.  Needless to say none of the outcomes of this situation will promote dealing with climate change.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #785 on: January 04, 2016, 09:51:46 PM »
Big oil to cut investment again in 2016
Quote
This will be the first time since the 1986 oil price downturn that we see two consecutive years of a decline in investments," Bjoernar Tonhaugen, vice president of oil and gas markets at Rystad Energy, told Reuters.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0UH0AB20160103
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #786 on: January 04, 2016, 11:50:43 PM »
Tom Kloza on oil prices in 2016.  Good short video.  If want to know where oil price is LIKELY to end up...Kloza is "thee guy" to follow:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000471004

He expects a "bottom" in the low $30's within the next 2 - 3 months.  Then expects oil prices to rise to "about $55" by the end of 2016.

By the way.....the rumblings are getting "louder" for a "possible US recession" this year.  If we see some more "weakfish" numbers like:  (1) slightly increased US job layoffs over next couple of months (2) any additional increase in oil inventory's, (3) continued weak numbers in China....etc...then that could push oil to the low $30's number that Kloza is looking for.



 

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #787 on: January 06, 2016, 01:01:41 AM »
Per the linked article tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran could drive crude oil prices as low as $18/barrel as the two countries sustain high production/export rates to put pressure on the other country:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/oil-may-hit-18-amid-saudi-iran-tensions-kilduff.html

Extract: "Oil prices could break below $20 this year as tensions rise between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two of the world's largest oil players, Again Capital founding partner John Kilduff said Monday."

See also:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/05/

Extract: "Rising tensions in the Middle East typically trigger a knee-jerk increase in the price of oil. But these are not typical times for the oil market. With several factors already weighing on the price of oil, increasing frictions in this historically tumultuous region are poised to counter-intuitively exacerbate the negative outlook for oil."
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #788 on: January 06, 2016, 01:05:53 PM »
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9441

Mr. Market (the stock market) is having a rough beginning of the year....and I suspect it will have a rough 9 months or so from here.

What is interesting to me.....and relevant to this subject....is what oil and gas companies will be doing the next 3 months, 9 months, and roughly 3 years.

Many of you folks know better than I.....what fossil fuels has meant to real estate, especially in Australia and Canada.  As natural resources have continued to get hammered (commodities as a "bundle" have dropped for the last 4 years and 9 months....led by mining companies)....that has weakened the real estate markets in both Canada, Australia, and now in the upper Midwest of the US (especially North Dakota).

I suspect that banks will have a rough year.....again pressured by the demise of smaller natural resource companies (both oil and gas....as well as mining).

The price of homes could get a real "bush whacking" in Vancouver, Calgary, Melbourne, Sydney, etc.  It is the continued "unwinding" of the commodity market....and will affect those that are using debt in the real estate market.  The boom in both Australia and Canada was fueled by the "bull run" in commodities....and now that is unwinding.  That is why I believe the banks....and the market overall....will be significantly tested over the next 9 months.

In Canada....Calgary was the first market to weaken....and now I believe the others will follow. I have no idea HOW FAR housing prices will fall...but it definitely "looks" like they are at that inflection point in Canada (they have already crossed it in Calgary).

There was a lot of Asian money going into real estate in both the US and Canada (especially Vancouver)....and with Asia "on the ropes" this year....that will likely dry up and affect demand.

 
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #789 on: January 06, 2016, 04:49:01 PM »
Dividend cuts are likely coming to Exxon and Chevron (and likely most big oil companies).  Who is going to blink first?

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e85e402e-9da2-11e5-8ce1-f6219b685d74.html#axzz3wTnft2bT
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #790 on: January 07, 2016, 04:03:38 PM »
Quote
U.S. oil futures in New York slid to the lowest in 12 years as turmoil in China’s markets pushes crude closer to $30 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 5.5 percent on concern that the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest commodity consumer is worsening. China’s central bank cut the yuan’s reference rate by the most since August, triggering a selloff that led to the closure of Chinese stock exchanges. Brent oil will slump to $30 in the next 10 days, Nomura Holdings Inc. said, while UBS Group AG sees oversupply pushing prices even lower.....

the average price for which OPEC members sell their crude fell below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2004, while spot prices for Western Canadian Select fell as low as $19.81 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since tracking began in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.....



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/oil-trades-near-34-as-record-cushing-stockpiles-exacerbate-glut
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Theta

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #791 on: January 07, 2016, 08:26:28 PM »
New post by Gail Tverberg concerning oil prices.

What is notable is that she sees oil oversupply affecting prices fully either by 2016, or 2017/18.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #792 on: January 07, 2016, 08:28:01 PM »
Update on the California natural gas leak.

Governor Declares Emergency Over Los Angeles Gas Leak
Quote
Unlike some other wells, the leaking well did not have an subsurface safety valve.

Though not required by state regulators, such a valve could have stopped the leak quickly, and calls for reform have followed.

In his emergency declaration, Mr. Brown said he was ordering an investigation into the cause of the leak, as well as stepping up regulations for all gas storage facilities in the state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/us/california-governor-declares-emergency-over-los-angeles-gas-leak.html
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #793 on: January 07, 2016, 10:25:11 PM »
Update on the California natural gas leak.

Governor Declares Emergency Over Los Angeles Gas Leak
Quote
Unlike some other wells, the leaking well did not have an subsurface safety valve.

Though not required by state regulators, such a valve could have stopped the leak quickly, and calls for reform have followed.

In his emergency declaration, Mr. Brown said he was ordering an investigation into the cause of the leak, as well as stepping up regulations for all gas storage facilities in the state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/us/california-governor-declares-emergency-over-los-angeles-gas-leak.html

The Porter Ranch natural gas leak in California has increased California’s greenhouse gas emissions by more than 25 percent; I wonder when NOAA updates their Trinidad Head, CA, Atmospheric Methane Concentration plot beyond Dec 26 2015 (see the first plot vs the second plot for Mauna Loa)

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/07/deepwater-horizon-on-land-porter-ranchs-neverending-gas-leak-prompts-california-state-of-emergency/

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #794 on: January 08, 2016, 01:55:05 PM »
Oil hit $32 and change yesterday....and that could be the bottom for oil.  Depending on how it rebounds (slow or fast) in coming weeks....will determine what the major oil companies do.

The bottom in oil will be a big plus to alternative energy stocks the rest of the year.

I fully expect to see oil at $55 by the end of 2016.....and natural gas at higher prices as well.  Again...a big plus for alternative energy stocks.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #795 on: January 08, 2016, 04:07:31 PM »
Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia's state owned oil company) is looking to do an IPO (Initial Public Offering) and sell stock in that entity.

If I had no ethics.....and I was holding an asset that was losing value as time passed....I would probably do an IPO as well.  The "deep downside" of the oil market (in my opinion) is likely WITHIN 5 years.  And by that I mean.....within that time period, there will be:

1)  Too much growth in renewable energy sources.....it will be eating into fossil fuels share of the market.

2)  Global warming will be a much more significant concern....and action will be "ramped up" to combat GW within that time period.

SO....if Saudi Arabia unloads Aramco on the public markets.....they will at least get something for it.....before the bottom absolutely falls out.

I would expect Goldman Sachs to be a primary "player" (if not the lead investment bank) in taking it public.  And Goldman will be spouting off about what such a great deal it is....and all the "upside" there is to oil price when they take Aramco public.

From a historical perspective.....and a financial perspective.....this will be fascinating:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-confirms-ipo-study-1452254819
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #796 on: January 08, 2016, 07:34:03 PM »
Hundreds of individual lawsuits foreseen against Southern California Gas Company's gas leak.

Erin Brockovich lends star power to legal fight over huge California methane leak
The environmental activist, portrayed by Julia Roberts in the 2000 film, lives just 20 miles from the leaky gas storage well: ‘I call it the BP oil spill on land’
Quote
Bob Bowcock, an environmental investigator, drew gasps when he said the official estimate of 50,000 kilograms of methane escaping every hour may be a gross underestimate. Weitz & Luxenberg thinks it may be closer to 146,000 kilograms.
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/08/erin-brockovich-lends-star-power-to-legal-fight-over-huge-california-methane-leak
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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #797 on: January 08, 2016, 08:19:57 PM »
"I would expect Goldman Sachs to be a primary "player" (if not the lead investment bank) in taking it public.  And Goldman will be spouting off about what such a great deal it is....and all the "upside" there is to oil price when they take Aramco public."

Googling for "Abacus Goldman Sachs" is informative. Or for "Magnetar Goldman." They created securities specifically to bet against. But it doesn't really matter who leads the IPO, they all do it.

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #798 on: January 10, 2016, 03:43:48 PM »
Hundreds of individual lawsuits foreseen against Southern California Gas Company's gas leak.

Erin Brockovich lends star power to legal fight over huge California methane leak
The environmental activist, portrayed by Julia Roberts in the 2000 film, lives just 20 miles from the leaky gas storage well: ‘I call it the BP oil spill on land’
Quote
Bob Bowcock, an environmental investigator, drew gasps when he said the official estimate of 50,000 kilograms of methane escaping every hour may be a gross underestimate. Weitz & Luxenberg thinks it may be closer to 146,000 kilograms.
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/08/erin-brockovich-lends-star-power-to-legal-fight-over-huge-california-methane-leak

To add to this.  Investigators of this disaster have now found out that this well started leaking  .....24 years ago!!!.........

It makes you wonder how many other old wells are leaking out there.  Even more is how many are going to start leaking eventually.  And how can we even pay for trying to fix them? 

Quote
So who’s to blame for a leak that cannot be stopped? Aging natural gas equipment may have contributed. According to documents filed with the California Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources, this particular well, referred to as Standard Sesnon 25, was originally drilled in 1953, and showed signs of leakage 24 years ago, in 1992. Inspectors reported that they could hear the leak through borehole microphones.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-company-behind-las-methane-disaster-knew-its-well-was-leaking-24-years-ago
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #799 on: January 10, 2016, 04:20:35 PM »
Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia's state owned oil company) is looking to do an IPO (Initial Public Offering) and sell stock in that entity.

If I had no ethics.....and I was holding an asset that was losing value as time passed....I would probably do an IPO as well.  The "deep downside" of the oil market (in my opinion) is likely WITHIN 5 years.  And by that I mean.....within that time period, there will be:

1)  Too much growth in renewable energy sources.....it will be eating into fossil fuels share of the market.

2)  Global warming will be a much more significant concern....and action will be "ramped up" to combat GW within that time period.

SO....if Saudi Arabia unloads Aramco on the public markets.....they will at least get something for it.....before the bottom absolutely falls out.

I would expect Goldman Sachs to be a primary "player" (if not the lead investment bank) in taking it public.  And Goldman will be spouting off about what such a great deal it is....and all the "upside" there is to oil price when they take Aramco public.

From a historical perspective.....and a financial perspective.....this will be fascinating:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-confirms-ipo-study-1452254819

A sucker's play.