Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?  (Read 3957 times)

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2042
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 82
  • Likes Given: 20
2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« on: May 14, 2014, 10:59:24 PM »


With the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2012/2013 formed in the north pacific, the state of California experienced its driest 13 months in 165 years of records.  Up until February/March of 2014 the state was in a severe drought.



Then, in February we had a significant rainfall event that thankfully restored most of our reservoirs to a manageable level.  However, this late winter/early spring rain, after a year of bone-dry drought created an explosion of late-season grass growth.

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/myfiles/assessment.pdf

Quote
Fires this spring will exhibit behavior seen more typically in fall. (Even after the recent rains, several burn projects last month have shown a high of consumption of fuels.) Expect fires to grow rapidly in continuous fuels, even during weather conditions not normally associated with fire growth. More fires will also be possible in alpine areas as melt out will be much earlier than average this year.

Indeed, we have already had a series of wildfires in the last 2 days that have caused over 30,000 evacuation notices to be sent, this one today, more serious than the event yesterday, as these forced evacuations have immediately been issued.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/us-usa-wildfires-california-idUSBREA4D00A20140514

Quote
More than 11,000 homes and businesses were ordered to evacuate on Wednesday and power was cut off to many residents as a wind-lashed wildfire roared out of control in San Diego County, authorities said.


This is just the start, the projected heat intensity and drought increase for the state of California is extremely dire.  With a combination of 3 years of intense drought, with the last year being the absolute driest on record, a significant amount of tree mortality has produced vast areas of dry fuel for wildfires. 




Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2014, 11:12:29 PM »
Just think.....ONLY 4 months until PEAK WILDFIRE season which is in mid-to-late SEPTEMBER.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 23
« Last Edit: May 15, 2014, 11:28:55 PM by Laurent »

Stephen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 112
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2014, 03:06:31 AM »
Just think.....ONLY 4 months until PEAK WILDFIRE season which is in mid-to-late SEPTEMBER.

Here in Australia we had severe bushfires in the Blue Mountains west of Sydney back in October (our spring).  The usual suspects, including our denialist Prime-Minister, kept repeating the mantra that 'we have always had bushfires in Australia'.  None of them seemed to realise that we have never had them quite so severe in October.  Then they go on about how the greenies are preventing burn-offs without realising that the opportunities for burn-off are shrinking as our winters get shorter and drier.
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2042
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 82
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2014, 04:13:39 AM »
I fear for Australia's impact from wildfires in 2015.



It is possible that this will be an extremely severe El Nino.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

CraigsIsland

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 197
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2014, 07:47:01 AM »
I fear for Australia's impact from wildfires in 2015.



It is possible that this will be an extremely severe El Nino.

"Be prepared for the worst, hope for the best."

Your PM sounds horrific. Hopefully things "balance" out in nature so that things go back to normal and nobody suffers. My bet is that will not happen unfortunately. So many people in power have not woken up to the fact that Earth has changed and we must adapt accordingly.


pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 300
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2014, 10:07:55 AM »
Wildfires in California and Mexico. (16 megapixel image available on the link).


http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83675

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1462
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 130
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2014, 12:49:17 PM »
With the extended drought and browning, dead and dying pine trees in northern Arizona and eastern New Mexico comes the high likelihood of fires. There is an expected weather system forecast to move through in the next couple days that may bring some rain to a very parched landscape but with it comes an even greater risk of dry lightning. There is virtually no snowpack so the fire season is likely to begin soon. Fire is a natural and sometimes beneficial part of forest ecology but with no soil moisture the fires can burn into the topsoil causing far more damage than good. 

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 - California Wildfire Apocalypse?
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2014, 04:45:11 PM »
We actually had 2 fires start near us yesterday.  One was right next to the interstate and was caused by a vehicle fire and was put out after a few hours effort.  The other started in a rugged canyon near Sedona and it has potential to get ugly.  It is almost impossible to fight on the ground due to the terrain making it hard to get close to it and then having no place to run if it gets on the firefighters (after having 19 of them die just south of here last year folks are skittish).  High winds today so we will see what happens with it.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein