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sidd

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #850 on: October 08, 2018, 09:12:51 PM »
Nice review paper by Horton et al. in Annual Review of Environment and Resources

doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826

Kopp is an author: His views have changed after incorporating DeConto and Pollard results:

"Kopp et al. (144) provide two sets of projections, one (labeled K14), based on an extension of
Kopp et al. (140) that, for ice sheets, is largely consistent with the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report,
and one (labeled DP16) incorporating results from the Antarctic ice-sheet model of DeConto &
Pollard (143). The difference between these two projections highlights the importance of Antarctic
ice-sheet behavior on this timescale. In K14, the 90% credible projections are −0.2 to 4.7 m under
RCP2.6, 0.0 to 5.3 m under RCP4.5, and 1.0 to 7.4 m under RCP8.5. In DP16, the corresponding
projections are 0.5–3.0 m under RCP2.6, 2.1–7.0 m under RCP4.5, and 9.1–15.6 m under RCP8.5.
The incorporation of the results of a mechanistic model for the Antarctic ice sheet narrows tthe
projection range under low emissions but shifts and fattens it under high emissions."

Many good things in the review. Other coverage at :

https://phys.org/news/2018-10-global-sea-meters.html

sidd

jonthed

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #851 on: November 11, 2018, 01:10:09 PM »
I've been away a while and just read through the past couple of pages of posts, I was hoping someone might be able to fill me in briefly...

I've just been catching up on the IPCC 1.5 report, and was trying to find out the current projections for sea level rise, particularly in the case that their 1.5 degree pathways are followed.
a) rate of rise and its acceleration
b) SLR expected this century
c) Total predicted SLR stabilization after CO2 and temperature are stabilized according to their 1.5 degree pathways. (i.e. once CO2 and temperature are stabilized (assuming no out of control feedbacks) sea level will continue to rise but up to what point and over what timescale?)

What I found in their report (brief peruse):
A) ?
B) perhaps around 0.5m
c) 6m-9m on the timescale of "centuries to millenia"

Can anyone help me out? what are the latest projections? Thanks a lot!

p.s 6m-9m of SLR if we hold steady at 1.5 degrees! Wow!

Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #852 on: November 11, 2018, 03:11:50 PM »
I've been away a while and just read through the past couple of pages of posts, I was hoping someone might be able to fill me in briefly...

I've just been catching up on the IPCC 1.5 report, and was trying to find out the current projections for sea level rise, particularly in the case that their 1.5 degree pathways are followed.
a) rate of rise and its acceleration
b) SLR expected this century
c) Total predicted SLR stabilization after CO2 and temperature are stabilized according to their 1.5 degree pathways. (i.e. once CO2 and temperature are stabilized (assuming no out of control feedbacks) sea level will continue to rise but up to what point and over what timescale?)

What I found in their report (brief peruse):
A) ?
B) perhaps around 0.5m
c) 6m-9m on the timescale of "centuries to millenia"

Can anyone help me out? what are the latest projections? Thanks a lot!

p.s 6m-9m of SLR if we hold steady at 1.5 degrees! Wow!

In their latest report, their expected sea level rise under such a scenario is 26 to 77 cm by 2100.  They make no mention of millennial projections.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #853 on: November 11, 2018, 04:09:08 PM »
It seems IPCC SR15 didn't look at Kopp et al 2017:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000663

Table 1 of Kopp et al 2017, attached below, gives a 17% chance of 78cm or more SLR in 2100 for RCP2.6 and a 5% chance of 98 cm or more (red lines are mine).

oren

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #854 on: November 11, 2018, 08:38:42 PM »
TBH, looking at anything except the BAU pathway RCP 8.5 is a futile exercise.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #855 on: November 19, 2018, 03:13:27 PM »
U.S.:  The report warned that the Navy needed to begin protecting the most vulnerable facilities immediately, and had only 10 to 20 years to begin work on the rest. Seven years later, there’s been little progress.

Rising seas threaten Norfolk Naval Shipyard, raising fears of 'catastrophic damage'
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rising-seas-threaten-norfolk-naval-shipyard-raising-fears-catastrophic-damage-n937396
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bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #856 on: January 15, 2019, 03:36:08 PM »
SLR is more along the East Coast US.

wolfpack513

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #857 on: January 21, 2019, 06:52:23 AM »
AVISO updated GMSL through October 11.  It has now been 4 years that the 2-month filter has been above the current linear trend of 3.3 mm/year.  How long until it takes 3.5 mm/yr to fit the data?

vox_mundi

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #858 on: February 24, 2019, 08:45:13 PM »
Marshall Islands Consider Radical Measures to Survive Rising Sea Levels
http://www.mvariety.com/regional-news/110887-marshalls-president-says-atolls-must-raise-islands-to-survive-sea-level-rise

MAJURO — Facing possible extinction from rising sea levels, the Marshall Islands is for the first time focusing on how to raise islands in this atoll nation.

Plans are underway for national talks on which of the 1,156 islands, scattered over 29 coral atolls, can be elevated in a dramatic intervention to ensure safety on the islands.

The Marshall Islands aims to increase engagement with the three other all-atoll nations in the world — Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives — to add momentum for “adaptation.” President Heine is chair of the Coalition of Atoll Nations Against Climate Change that represents these four atoll nations.

Most of the islands are less than two metres (6.5 feet) above sea level and the government believes physically raising the islands was the only way to save the Marshall Islands from extinction.

They have not yet outlined specifics of how this would be achieved expect to have plans formulated by the end of the year.

In the meantime, they are keeping a close watch on the ambitious City of Hope project on an artificial island in the Maldives as a viable option.

To lay the foundations of the city—which is expected to accommodate 130,000 people when completed in 2023—sand is being pumped onto reefs from surrounding atolls and it is being fortified with walls three metres above sea level, which will make it higher than the tallest natural island in the Maldives.


https://hdc.com.mv/hulhumale/
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2125198-on-front-line-of-climate-change-as-maldives-fights-rising-seas/

In line with this grand scheme, the Maldives government is in the final stages of negotiation with Saudi Arabia to lease Faafu Atoll, consisting of 23 islands, for development for 99 years.

It could get about $10 billion – more than three times the  GDP of the Maldives – from the deal, but will need to relocate about 4000 people. Although the islands’ population has been offered homes for free in bigger towns, some are still protesting the plan. Government officials told me that no one will be relocated against their wish.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #859 on: February 26, 2019, 01:38:09 PM »
Report Cards Show Continued Sea-Level Rise on East & Gulf Coasts 
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-cards-sea-level-east-gulf-coasts.html

Researchers at William & Mary's Virginia Institute of Marine Science have issued the first annual update of their sea level "report cards," marking 50 years of water-level observations from 1969 through 2018.

These web-based charts—available online at https://vims.edu/sealevelreportcard—project sea level out to the year 2050 based on an ongoing analysis of tide-gauge records for 32 localities along the U.S. coastline from Maine to Alaska. Release of this year's cards was delayed by the 35-day government shutdown, which precluded compilation of and access to NOAA's latest tide-gauge records.

... Boon and colleagues also use a statistical approach that includes evidence for recent acceleration in the rate of sea-level change at many U.S. tide-gauge stations, and stress their use of relative sea-level measurements—changes in water level relative to the land surface on which people live and work. The relative sea-level rise in Virginia and other East and Gulf coast areas is due to both rising water and sinking land.

... a longer record isn't always better, especially when there's evidence of recent non-linear changes in the rate of sea-level rise like we see along the U.S. East Coast."... "If you cross a threshold in terms of something like sea-level rise, what came before—say a tide-gauge record that began in 1900—is biased in terms of seeing where you're going. We think the ice sheets are melting faster today than they ever have, and if that's true then the previous 90 years of data won't accurately predict the future." 

The difference between the linear rates used in NOAA's sea-level forecasts and the non-linear, accelerating rates used in VIMS' report cards can lead to sharply different forecasts of our sea-level future. ...



https://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/2019/slrc_2018.php
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #860 on: February 26, 2019, 03:54:00 PM »
Report Cards Show Continued Sea-Level Rise on East & Gulf Coasts 
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-cards-sea-level-east-gulf-coasts.html

Researchers at William & Mary's Virginia Institute of Marine Science have issued the first annual update of their sea level "report cards," marking 50 years of water-level observations from 1969 through 2018.

These web-based charts—available online at https://vims.edu/sealevelreportcard—project sea level out to the year 2050 based on an ongoing analysis of tide-gauge records for 32 localities along the U.S. coastline from Maine to Alaska. Release of this year's cards was delayed by the 35-day government shutdown, which precluded compilation of and access to NOAA's latest tide-gauge records.

... Boon and colleagues also use a statistical approach that includes evidence for recent acceleration in the rate of sea-level change at many U.S. tide-gauge stations, and stress their use of relative sea-level measurements—changes in water level relative to the land surface on which people live and work. The relative sea-level rise in Virginia and other East and Gulf coast areas is due to both rising water and sinking land.

... a longer record isn't always better, especially when there's evidence of recent non-linear changes in the rate of sea-level rise like we see along the U.S. East Coast."... "If you cross a threshold in terms of something like sea-level rise, what came before—say a tide-gauge record that began in 1900—is biased in terms of seeing where you're going. We think the ice sheets are melting faster today than they ever have, and if that's true then the previous 90 years of data won't accurately predict the future." 

The difference between the linear rates used in NOAA's sea-level forecasts and the non-linear, accelerating rates used in VIMS' report cards can lead to sharply different forecasts of our sea-level future. ...



https://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/2019/slrc_2018.php

Yes, but the difference between the linear and non-linear rates are insignificant in the data, such that long-term extrapolations using one over the other is rather questionable.

Darvince

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #861 on: March 02, 2019, 04:23:24 AM »
Are there reasons to suspect that there will be no acceleration of melt in Greenland and Antarctica in the three decades to come between now and 2050? I would think that the default assumption under continued rising temperatures, both for the ocean and the air, would be that the rate of melt should continue rising as the air and seas continue to warm.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #862 on: March 02, 2019, 05:43:47 AM »
I'm pretty sure the answer is we are still in the bottom section of the S curve.  The first ~75 years of the 1,000-year process (or however long it will take to melt Antarctica) is exponential in nature, but looks little different from linear.  (I'm basing it on a 1970's start of the acceleration when global temperature increases functionally started.)  A car that accelerates from 0 to 100 in 10 seconds isn't going very fast after the first second.
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bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #863 on: March 02, 2019, 11:37:03 AM »
History suggest SLR will come in surges or pulses and likely not liner or expontial.  Ice mechanics .. say a cascading calving event from the Thwaites or else ware in the Amundsen Sea sector or even a saddle collapse, which is less likely ..  from Greenland,    might produce a pulse such as we have seen in the past as in Melt water pulse 1A. Ice does not need to melt to raise sea level just fall into the ocean.


sidd

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #864 on: March 30, 2019, 06:51:45 AM »
Some people waking up: Underwater HOA

" Students also painted the elevations of four intersections — 6, 7, 9, 11 feet (2, 2.1, 2.75, 3 meters) — along the city’s two-lane main road"

“Does anyone seriously want this in front of the expensive homes in Pinecrest? Maybe they won’t be so expensive once they convince the world they will be underwater in a few years,”

https://apnews.com/440839f7f98841acb28120f526fdf118

sidd

Juan C. García

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #865 on: May 06, 2019, 08:41:44 PM »
Just to have this link on a Sea Level Rise topic:

The gravity effect seems reasonable to me.  Link to NASA video on sea level changes since 2002:

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2626/evidence-of-sea-level-fingerprints/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

vox_mundi

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #866 on: May 14, 2019, 05:14:40 PM »
Is sea rise wrecking coastal home values? The answer: Maybe
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-sea-coastal-home-values.html

For sale: waterfront property with sweeping views of the Atlantic Ocean. Waves erode beach regularly. Flooding gets worse every year. Saltwater damage to lawn.

... A nationwide study by the First Street Foundation suggests climate change concerns have caused nearly $16 billion in lost appreciation of property values along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast since 2005.

The study singles out Salisbury as the hardest-hit community in Massachusetts. Coastal homes there would be worth $200,000 to $300,000 more if not for frequent tidal flooding and powerful coastal storms, the study suggests.

... In Salisbury, real estate broker Thomas Saab insists something is happening with home prices but is not sure whether climate change is behind it.

Two clients in the otherwise strong real estate market, he said, were recently forced to lower their asking prices by tens of thousands of dollars when prospective buyers voiced concerns about storm damage and risks.

... "Consumers are clearly mindful that these climate change impacts could be within the window of a 30-year mortgage, but their current behavior still implies that to have a view of the ocean is more desirable."
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Shared Humanity

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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #868 on: May 20, 2019, 11:56:50 PM »
Bamber et al 2019 shows results below of structured expert judgement on global sea level rise projections:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116

wolfpack513

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #869 on: May 21, 2019, 12:49:48 AM »
New update AVISO GMSL.  It has been over 4 years since the 6-month filter dropped below the linear trend. Recent studies put current rates closer to 4.5 mm/yr due to acceleration. 

Ktb

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #870 on: May 21, 2019, 12:51:28 AM »
Bamber et al 2019 shows results below of structured expert judgement on global sea level rise projections:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116


This is an excellent article, great read.

Quote
Limiting attention to the likely range, as was the case in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5, may be misleading and will likely lead to a poor evaluation of the true risks. We find it plausible that SLR could exceed 2 m by 2100 for our high-temperature scenario, roughly equivalent to business as usual. This could result in land loss of 1.79 M km2, including critical regions of food production, and displacement of up to 187 million people (38). A SLR of this magnitude would clearly have profound consequences for humanity.

I still think 2m by 2100 is the low end of accurate. Only time will tell.

Also, only 3 years to AR6. We need a countdown clock on the forum.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #871 on: May 21, 2019, 01:50:44 AM »
I feel that 1m is too high.  Even that cannot be reached without a significant contribution from either Greenland.

Sleepy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #872 on: May 21, 2019, 04:35:46 AM »
Bamber et al 2019 shows results below of structured expert judgement on global sea level rise projections:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116


Thank you, LvdL.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #873 on: May 21, 2019, 03:52:02 PM »
Bamber et al 2019 shows results below of structured expert judgement on global sea level rise projections:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116


Thank you, LvdL.

In other words, the structured expert judgement says sea level will rise 1m, if temperatures rise 5C.  For a 2C temperature rise, the median expert judgement says 26 cm.

FrostKing70

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #874 on: May 21, 2019, 04:05:19 PM »
All,

I think the global temperature chart showing the El Nino years verus La Nina versus neutral years is very telling and explains most of the variations in temperature.   Is anyone aware of a similar chart for SLR?

« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 04:10:25 PM by FrostKing70 »

FrostKing70

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #875 on: May 21, 2019, 04:09:22 PM »
I don't think this is the identical chart that I remember seeing, but similar, for those who haven't seen it recently:

from:  https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=67

Sleepy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #876 on: May 21, 2019, 05:29:43 PM »
Bamber et al 2019 shows results below of structured expert judgement on global sea level rise projections:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/05/14/1817205116


Thank you, LvdL.

In other words, the structured expert judgement says sea level will rise 1m, if temperatures rise 5C.  For a 2C temperature rise, the median expert judgement says 26 cm.
No, in Bambers words:
SEJ provides a formal approach for estimating uncertain quantities based on current scientific understanding, and can be useful for estimating quantities that are difficult to model.
And Aslak Grinsted's image for RCP8.5:
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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #877 on: May 21, 2019, 05:52:29 PM »
I don't think this is the identical chart that I remember seeing, but similar, for those who haven't seen it recently:

from:  https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=67

here is the same graph up through 2017 note how the trend lines have moved up.
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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #878 on: May 21, 2019, 05:57:27 PM »
Bamber et al (2019) are estimating Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise, not total sea level rise, including the thermal expansion term.  Add on another 15-30 cm for the thermal expansion.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #879 on: May 21, 2019, 07:36:45 PM »
Add on another 15-30 cm for the thermal expansion.

They already did this in Table 2 that I showed before:

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #880 on: May 21, 2019, 07:45:00 PM »
the structured expert judgement says sea level will rise 1m, if temperatures rise 5C. For a 2C temperature rise, the median expert judgement says 26 cm.

The(se) experts estimate a 50% chance of more than 1.11m and a 5% chance of more than 2.38m GMSLR in 2100 if temps rise 5C and 50% chance of more than 69cm and 5% chance of more than 126cm in 2100 if temps rise 2C.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #881 on: May 23, 2019, 10:59:04 PM »
Levermann et al 2019 draft open for discussion, on Antarctic contribution to SLR:
https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-23/

"For the so-called business-as-usual warming path, RCP-8.5, we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea-level rise within the 21st century of 17 cm with a likely range (66-percentile around the mean) between 9 cm and 36 cm and a very likely range (90-percentile around the mean) between 6 cm and 59 cm. For the RCP-2.6 warming path which will keep the global mean temperature below two degrees of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea-level contribution. The likely range for the RCP-2.6 scenario is between 7 cm and 25 cm and the very likely range is between 5 cm and 39 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario, separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade with a likely range between 2 cm/dec and 8 cm/dec and a very likely range between 1 cm/dec and 13 cm/dec."

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« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:47:25 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

sidd

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #883 on: July 08, 2019, 07:31:43 AM »
Denial in California:

"Seaside cliffs are crumbling in Pacifica, bringing down entire buildings. Balboa Island, barely above sea level, is spending $1.8 million to raise the wall that separates it from the ocean."

"From San Diego to Humboldt counties, homeowners scramble to fend off increasing erosion and storm surges, pleading with officials for bigger seawalls that can hold back the even bigger ocean."

"Retreat is as un-American as it gets, neighborhood groups declared. To win, California must defend."

"Homeowners flooded city meetings, knocked on neighbors’ doors and plastered signs around town. The mayor became the town punching bag, and new leaders were voted in to help Pacifica stand its ground."

"How could anyone get a 30-year-mortgage if city documents say the entire street might be condemned in the future and turned into a beach? How will she get insurance or permits to remodel her home?"

"About 30% of Southern California’s shoreline today is behind some form of seawall "

"For the homeowner, insurance policies, hazard grants and federal disaster relief are all set up in a way that encourages rebuilding rather than relocating. There’s no incentive for owners to consider options beyond hunkering down with bigger and better walls. The way the state pushes down insurance prices also masks the true cost of living in a hazardous area."

"And so states, and ultimately taxpayers, are the ones subject to the biggest financial risks when a disaster hits."

"Realtors are in a bind. Unlike other hazard zones in California, there are no mandatory disclosures for homes that might be subject to relocation or other sea level rise plans in the future. "

"Mother Nature’s going to do what she’s going to do, and we can’t do anything about it"

"It’s either planned retreat or unplanned retreat."

"If you start retreating, residents demanded, where do you stop?"

"Building mansions on the sand also took up about 200 feet of the beach and dunes, leaving only a narrow buffer against the rising sea"

"The reptilian frenzy over managed retreat has overtaken Imperial Beach, as it has in other cities. Fear overwhelms reason. Conspiracy theories and misinformation abound."

"calls managed retreat an ideology being pushed by extreme environmentalists "

"Imperial Beach doesn’t even track the number of times the ocean tops the seawall "

" “Ultimately, the city can’t protect private property owners. We need to be upfront about that,” he said. “The insurance industry or the state needs to figure that one out.” "

“Behold your highway tax dollars falling into the ocean,”

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/

sidd

bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #884 on: July 12, 2019, 05:05:59 PM »
U.S. ties record for number of high tide flooding days in 2018

https://phys.org/news/2019-07-ties-high-tide-days.html?utm_source=nwletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-nwletter

"Coastal communities across the U.S. continued to see increased high tide flooding last year, forcing their residents and visitors to deal with flooded shorelines, streets and basements—a trend that is expected to continue this year. The elevated water levels affected coastal economies, tourism and crucial infrastructure like septic systems and stormwater systems, according to a new NOAA report.

"U.S. coastal communities are faced with mounting challenges as sea levels rise," says Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA's National Ocean Service. "NOAA's tide gauge observations not only ensure safe maritime navigation but are now providing critical information about changes in coastal flood risk to help communities prepare for and plan for a more resilient future."
According to the report, nationally, five days of high tide flooding occurred within coastal communities, tying the record set in 2015. Flood days broke records in the Northeast, with a median of 10 days, and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico at five days, due to a combination of active nor'easter and hurricane seasons combined with sea level rise.

"NOAA has identified more than 40 locations whose annual rates of high tide flooding are rapidly increasing. Annual rates at 25 other locations are also trending upwards but more gradually. These increases suggest a much wetter future for many coastal areas.

the Northeast Atlantic could see a 140 percent increase,
the Southeast could see a 190 percent increase, and
the Western Gulf of Mexico could see a 130 percent increase.
El Nino conditions that are predicted to persist through 2019 are a factor which contribute to the increase, along with continued sea level rise.
By 2030, long-term projections show seven to 15 days of high-tide flooding nationally. By 2050, the number rises to 25 to 75 days.
NOAA maintains ocean observing infrastructure, including more than 200 permanent water level stations on the U.S. coasts and Great Lakes, and is the nation's authoritative source for historic and real-time data, forecasts, predictions, and scientific analyses that protect life, the economy and the environment on the coast.

I reside in this type of area, where nuisance flooding (nuisance...strange word used to describe a condition that will destroy one's automobile in 2-3 yrs) .. I attend many (all) township meetings concerning engineering solutions to this and other on-going engineering projects.  I've happily achieved the label "trouble maker" .. my ongoing disagreement with one such project has coast the township (us) 75 grand and this continues.  Why? human compliancy/stupidity.

bligh

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #885 on: July 13, 2019, 06:39:13 PM »
bligh8:
And that is with us on the downslope of the 18.6 year tidal cycle.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #886 on: July 14, 2019, 06:09:21 PM »
bligh8:
And that is with us on the downslope of the 18.6 year tidal cycle.
This cycle, while real, is pretty insignificant, generating less than a half mm of difference in tide heights between lowest and highest parts of the cycle.
https://noc.ac.uk/news/highest-tides-186-years

Pragma

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #887 on: July 16, 2019, 03:00:24 AM »

bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #888 on: July 25, 2019, 02:10:21 PM »
Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate

'Hundreds of thousands of homes are at risk of chronic flooding due to sea level rise over the coming decades. The implications for coastal residents, communities, and the economy are profound. 

"Sea levels are rising. Tides are inching higher. High-tide floods are becoming more frequent and reaching farther inland. And hundreds of US coastal communities will soon face chronic, disruptive flooding that directly affects people's homes, lives, and properties.

'Yet property values in most coastal real estate markets do not currently reflect this risk. And most homeowners, communities, and investors are not aware of the financial losses they may soon face.

A threshold of disruption
Long before rising seas permanently submerge properties, millions of Americans living in coastal communities will face more frequent and disruptive high-tide flooding. As this flooding increases, it will reach a threshold where normal routines become impossible and coastal residents, communities, and businesses are forced to make difficult, often costly choices.

Billions of dollars of property at risk
The analysis finds that:
More than 300,000 of today's coastal homes, with a collective market value of about $117.5 billion today, are at risk of chronic inundation in 2045—a timeframe that falls within the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage issued today. Approximately 14,000 coastal commercial properties, currently assessed at a value of roughly $18.5 billion, are also at risk during that timeframe.

The risks of rising seas are profound. Many of the challenges they bring are inevitable. And our time to act is running out. There is no simple solution—but we do still have opportunities to limit the harms. Whether we react to this threat by implementing science-based, coordinated, and equitable solu­tions—or walk, eyes open, toward a crisis—is up to us right now.






CalamityCountdown

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #889 on: July 29, 2019, 12:09:27 AM »
Global sea level rise has more than doubled in the past year, according to NASA. Sea level rose 7.3 mm in the past year, versus the 3.3 mm average during the satellite era. Between 3/16/18 and 3/28/19 sea level rose from 85.3 mm to 92.6 mm above the baseline in the record tracked since January 1, 1993. Given how erratic the rise of global sea level in on an annual basis (and some years the decline), a one year period is too short a time frame to definitively say that sea level rise is accelerating. But the crash in coastal real estate prices predicted by Joe Romm and others seems ever closer https://thinkprogress.org/rising-seas-hit-u-s-coastal-property-values-a-pricing-signal-from-climate-change-848bf4e7443b/ .

Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 01:29:35 AM by CalamityCountdown »

Tom_Mazanec

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SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #891 on: July 30, 2019, 02:58:15 PM »

Source: [ Vrl=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ [/url] https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

I changed the 1st u in url to a V so it does not format in the quote.
Something in that link formatting is wrong because it tries opening.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/%20[/url/

You need to add a bracket to first url i guess.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #892 on: July 30, 2019, 03:14:03 PM »

Source: [ Vrl=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ [/url] https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

I changed the 1st u in url to a V so it does not format in the quote.
Something in that link formatting is wrong because it tries opening.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/%20[/url/

CalamityC simply got an extra space in there, which can be translated as a space " " or can be translated into %20 (ascii code, I think).  Then the browser has taken the %20 literally.  This is exactly why I avoid spaces in all folder names, file names, etc.

You need to add a bracket to first url i guess.

Rich

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #893 on: July 30, 2019, 03:28:30 PM »
Global sea level rise has more than doubled in the past year, according to NASA. Sea level rose 7.3 mm in the past year, versus the 3.3 mm average during the satellite era. Between 3/16/18 and 3/28/19 sea level rose from 85.3 mm to 92.6 mm above the baseline in the record tracked since January 1, 1993.

This statistic is orders of magnitude more relevant to civilization collapse than the sea ice obsessed about here.

That 7.3mm is actually a tad lower than most years since 2010.

Screw the satellite era from '93. There is obviously a fundamental change in the slope since 2010 with the exception of the '16 Super Nino when shitloads of heat xfer from ocean to atmosphere.

When the current mild Nino clears, we'll be headed for 10mm type annual rises in 2020 and the hockey stick is emerging.

The financial collapse comes first humans.

Flood insurance rates
Coastal real estate down turn
Property tax shortfall
Muni bonds collapse
Municipal bankrupty
Global debt and equity market collapse
Supply chain breakdown
Civilization collapse (with plenty of ice still in the Arctic)


Rich

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #894 on: July 30, 2019, 05:29:33 PM »
Global sea level rise has more than doubled in the past year, according to NASA. Sea level rose 7.3 mm in the past year, versus the 3.3 mm average during the satellite era.

Just to reinforcement this point.. it is incorrect to say that  global sea level rise has doubled in the past year

Most years since 2010 have been at least as much as the 7 3mm reported this year.

The 2010's are leaps and bounds ahead of the 1993 - 2010 portion of the satellite era.

The 3.3 mm average from the "post-satellite era" is an antiquated reference point.

bligh8

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #895 on: August 05, 2019, 05:20:39 PM »
So,  just to clarify what's going on with RSLR along the east coast at least where I live and I suspect it's the same elseware or worse.

In 1995 (don't laugh all at once) I was taking ballroom dancing lessons with my wife,  I mean I had been out to sea for 3 of the last 4.5 years, so yea, let's do something nice for her.  One of the guys also taking lessons was the job foreman for the rt 35 bridge spanning the inlet out to the N. Atlantic.  The guy was nice enough to show me the plans for the bridge and explain the language the Defense Mapping Agency used to clarify vertical clearances, on this bridge it's 50ft. At the upper support corners their is a radius built into the design.  Vertical and horizontal clearances are defined as a box the size of the listed clearances must be able to fit through the opening, ok that gave me another 4 inches of vertical clearance. The mast on my vessel is 49feet 8 inches. Based on these numbers and outside of a wind driven event I should fit under the bridge at all times excluding Mean higher high water or about 15% of the time. Hitting the bridge would be about a 30thousand $ mistake with the chance of someone getting hurt.  I was noticing variations  on the vertical clearance gauge about 7 years ago so I moved my vessel to a port with opening bridges.

Several weeks ago I took a evening boat ride on a friends power boat under this rt. 35 bridge and out to the ocean we traveled south to Manasquan where we had a bite to eat at a dock side restaurant, upon returning I paid very close attention to the vertical clearance gauge as it appeared to be high tide.  The gauge indicated there was 48 ft of vertical clearance.  There was no full or new moon or a wind driven event involved.  So according to the gauge and careful observations we have had about 24 inches of RSLR over the past 14-15 years, at 40deg North along the east coast.

More disturbing is the fact that in this neighbor hood we have zero free board at mean higher high tides with some nuisance flooding occurring mostly from water backing up storm drains and flooding adjacent streets.  Amazingly enough houses are selling very well and what I consider to be inflated prices.  It's some crazy world were living in.

higher red arrow indicates the corner radius... lower red arrow vertical clearance gauge

dnem

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #896 on: August 06, 2019, 01:28:33 AM »
Global sea level rise has more than doubled in the past year, according to NASA. Sea level rose 7.3 mm in the past year, versus the 3.3 mm average during the satellite era. Between 3/16/18 and 3/28/19 sea level rose from 85.3 mm to 92.6 mm above the baseline in the record tracked since January 1, 1993.

The financial collapse comes first humans.

Flood insurance rates
Coastal real estate down turn
Property tax shortfall
Muni bonds collapse
Municipal bankrupty
Global debt and equity market collapse
Supply chain breakdown
Civilization collapse (with plenty of ice still in the Arctic)

I agree, Rich. The only point I was making on the other thread is that coastal real estate values are prone to collapse.  Because markets are frail and subject to non-linear disruptions.  But you're so frigging argumentative that you had to argue. 

TerryM

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #897 on: August 06, 2019, 01:43:41 AM »
As sea level rises, the sill level of the Baring Strait lowers allowing more of those warm Pacific waters to spill into the Arctic Basin - even as large flows of low salinity Arctic water are more readily flushed into the Pacific.


Since we're starting with a very shallow sill (~50 meters), the reaction to each increase in ocean depth is magnified.


Terry

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« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 10:40:09 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS