Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon

[sidd]

Nice review paper by Horton et al. in Annual Review of Environment and Resources

doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826

Kopp is an author: His views have changed after incorporating DeConto and Pollard results:

"Kopp et al. (144) provide two sets of projections, one (labeled K14), based on an extension of
Kopp et al. (140) that, for ice sheets, is largely consistent with the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report,
and one (labeled DP16) incorporating results from the Antarctic ice-sheet model of DeConto &
Pollard (143). The difference between these two projections highlights the importance of Antarctic
ice-sheet behavior on this timescale. In K14, the 90% credible projections are −0.2 to 4.7 m under
RCP2.6, 0.0 to 5.3 m under RCP4.5, and 1.0 to 7.4 m under RCP8.5. In DP16, the corresponding
projections are 0.5–3.0 m under RCP2.6, 2.1–7.0 m under RCP4.5, and 9.1–15.6 m under RCP8.5.
The incorporation of the results of a mechanistic model for the Antarctic ice sheet narrows tthe
projection range under low emissions but shifts and fattens it under high emissions."

Many good things in the review. Other coverage at :

https://phys.org/news/2018-10-global-sea-meters.html

sidd

[jonthed]

I've been away a while and just read through the past couple of pages of posts, I was hoping someone might be able to fill me in briefly...

I've just been catching up on the IPCC 1.5 report, and was trying to find out the current projections for sea level rise, particularly in the case that their 1.5 degree pathways are followed.
a) rate of rise and its acceleration
b) SLR expected this century
c) Total predicted SLR stabilization after CO2 and temperature are stabilized according to their 1.5 degree pathways. (i.e. once CO2 and temperature are stabilized (assuming no out of control feedbacks) sea level will continue to rise but up to what point and over what timescale?)

What I found in their report (brief peruse):
A) ?
B) perhaps around 0.5m
c) 6m-9m on the timescale of "centuries to millenia"

Can anyone help me out? what are the latest projections? Thanks a lot!

p.s 6m-9m of SLR if we hold steady at 1.5 degrees! Wow!

[Klondike Kat]

I've been away a while and just read through the past couple of pages of posts, I was hoping someone might be able to fill me in briefly...

I've just been catching up on the IPCC 1.5 report, and was trying to find out the current projections for sea level rise, particularly in the case that their 1.5 degree pathways are followed.
a) rate of rise and its acceleration
b) SLR expected this century
c) Total predicted SLR stabilization after CO2 and temperature are stabilized according to their 1.5 degree pathways. (i.e. once CO2 and temperature are stabilized (assuming no out of control feedbacks) sea level will continue to rise but up to what point and over what timescale?)

What I found in their report (brief peruse):
A) ?
B) perhaps around 0.5m
c) 6m-9m on the timescale of "centuries to millenia"

Can anyone help me out? what are the latest projections? Thanks a lot!

p.s 6m-9m of SLR if we hold steady at 1.5 degrees! Wow!

In their latest report, their expected sea level rise under such a scenario is 26 to 77 cm by 2100.  They make no mention of millennial projections.

[Lennart van der Linde]

It seems IPCC SR15 didn't look at Kopp et al 2017:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000663

Table 1 of Kopp et al 2017, attached below, gives a 17% chance of 78cm or more SLR in 2100 for RCP2.6 and a 5% chance of 98 cm or more (red lines are mine).

[oren]

TBH, looking at anything except the BAU pathway RCP 8.5 is a futile exercise.

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.:  The report warned that the Navy needed to begin protecting the most vulnerable facilities immediately, and had only 10 to 20 years to begin work on the rest. Seven years later, there’s been little progress.

Rising seas threaten Norfolk Naval Shipyard, raising fears of 'catastrophic damage'
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rising-seas-threaten-norfolk-naval-shipyard-raising-fears-catastrophic-damage-n937396

[bligh8]

SLR is more along the East Coast US.

[wolfpack513]

AVISO updated GMSL through October 11.  It has now been 4 years that the 2-month filter has been above the current linear trend of 3.3 mm/year.  How long until it takes 3.5 mm/yr to fit the data?