Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon

[Juan C. García]

This video can be put on several topics. Maybe Sea Level Rise is the best place to include it.

Just have a think.
NEW STUDY : Greenland is melting seven times faster than 30 years ago.

[vox_mundi]

Unusual Glacier Flow, First-Ever Look at Ice Stream Formation
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-ice-river-arctic-glacier-seas.html

Scientists have captured the birth of a high-speed ice feature for the first time on top of a Russian glacier.



In a remote archipelago of the Russian Arctic, Vavilov Ice Cap had been moving at a glacial pace for decades. Then, in 2013, it suddenly started spewing ice into the sea, flowing in what scientists call a glacial surge. But a new study suggests this surge has now become something entirely different.

The authors of the new study published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters have documented what they believe is the first observation of a transition from a glacial surge to a longer-lasting flow called an ice stream.

Ice streams and glacial surges were believed to be separate phenomena driven by different mechanisms.

... if the authors of the new study are correct, glacial surges could instead be an early stage of an ice stream. If surging ice can form an ice stream on a glacier like Vavilov, then other ice caps (... Greenland, Antarctica) might also experience similar rapid ice loss

 ... "If that's true, we probably have to revise our predictions for the impact of global sea level rise in the future,"

- Whyjay Zheng, Ph.D. - lead author of the new study.

Glacial surges transport massive amounts of ice in a short amount of time, typically a few months to several years. On the other hand, ice streams can maintain a constant, rapid flow for decades to centuries.

From the time the surge at Vavilov began in 2013 until the spring of 2019, the ice cap lost 9.5 billion tons of ice, or 11 percent of the ice mass of the entire glacier basin. ...

Open Access: Whyjay Zheng et al, The Possible Transition From Glacial Surge to Ice Stream on Vavilov Ice Cap, Geophysical Research Letters (2019)

[TerryM]

^^
So much for the estimates of maximum sea level rise in a given time frame.


What does this say to the future of Miami, New Orleans and other near sea level cities?
Terry

[Tom_Mazanec]

Your Florida coastal home could lose 15% of its value by 2030 due to sea rise
And it could lose up to 35 percent of its value by 2050, according to a new report.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/real-estate/2020/01/17/your-florida-coastal-home-could-lose-15-of-its-value-by-2030-due-to-sea-rise/

In another Miami-Dade-focused report from Jupiter Intelligence, researchers found that moderate flooding of about a foot will affect nearly double the number of homes by 2050.

[gerontocrat]

I've been wandering through my files updating the odd spreadsheet here & there..

Attached are two graphs ...

NOAA Data - Sea Level & Ocean Heat Rise.png

This looks at sea level rise and increase in 0-700 metres ocean heat content. (NOAA's data for 0-2000 metres only starts in 2005).

Both tend to show an exponential increase⁽²⁾ as the years go by, with sea level rising by around 6cms over the next 10 years. Even without storms + storm surges, that's enough to make sunny-day floods in parts of Florida much more than a King Tide phenomenon.

NOAA Data - Sea Level Rise to CO2e CORRELATION
Sea Level Rise is a combination of ice sheets and glacier melt + expansion of ocean water as the oceans heat up. In the end they are the end result of increases in CO2e.

The correlation between sea level rise and CO2e is very good. R² of 0.99.

I used the NOAA figure of 496 CO2e for 2018 (and added 4 for luck for 2019). An annual increase in CO2e of 4ppm per year (say 2.7 for CO2 + 1.3 for all other gases) woud give a figure of 540 CO2e in 2030.

The correlation shown (if it held) would give a 5cm Sea Level Rise by 2030. Pretty close to the figure produced in the graph above.
_________________________________________________
⁽¹⁾ I am content with using a polynomial to project forward sea level and ocean heat content until such time we see CO2 emissions reduce, land and ocean sinks effectiveness redction reversed, and permafrost melt shown not to emit increasing amounts of greenhouse gases.

⁽²⁾I did not use the 520+ figure calculated elsewhere on the ASIF, as that wold require calculating all previous years

[nanning]

^^
Nice and interesting graphs but I think those graphs are not conveying the right information. Clearly one is a strongly delayed effect from the other. This delay is not visible.

[Sigmetnow]

Sea level rise accelerating along US coastline, scientists warn

The pace of sea level rise accelerated at nearly all measurement stations along the US coastline in 2019, with scientists warning some of the bleakest scenarios for inundation and flooding are steadily becoming more likely.

Of 32 tide-gauge stations in locations along the vast US coastline, 25 showed a clear acceleration in sea level rise last year, according to researchers at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (Vims).

The selected measurements are from coastal locations spanning from Maine to Alaska. About 40% of the US population lives in or near coastal areas.

The gathering speed of sea level rise is evident even within the space of a year, with water levels at the 25 sites rising at a faster rate in 2019 than in 2018. ...

https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/03/sea-level-rise-accelerating-us-coastline-scientists-warn

[Shared Humanity]

Southeast FL is screwed.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article239005633.html

Things that Florida residents can look forward to as their sewage systems fail.

https://dhss.delaware.gov/dhss/dph/files/sewagefaq.pdf

[Juan C. García]

Boston harbor brings ashore a new enemy: Rising seas
Facing climate change, Boston must gird itself for an era of rising water — or be inundated
By Steven Mufson
February 19, 2020

BOSTON — Famous for its role in America’s war for independence, this city is now fighting the rising seas.

Boston is raising streets, building berms and even requiring that new high-rise condominium developments on its harbor acquire “aqua fences” — portable metal barriers that can be dragged to the street and anchored to the pavement to deflect incoming waves.

Mayor Martin J. Walsh (D) has vowed to spend more than $30 million a year, equal to 10 percent of Boston’s five-year capital budget, to defend the city from a watery future that is expected because of climate change.

“People talk about a managed retreat” for waterfront cities, said Boston’s chief of environment, energy and open space, Christopher Cook, as he looked out on the city skyline from a popular waterside park across the harbor. “Where do we retreat to?”
…
And as climate change accelerates, the pace of sea-level rise in Boston is expected to triple, adding eight inches over 2000 levels by 2030, according to a report commissioned by the city. The ocean might climb as much as three feet above 2013 levels by 2070, the report said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/02/19/boston-prepares-rising-seas-climate-change/?arc404=true

[longwalks1]

I skimmed the article to see if it mentions (if memory recalls correctly) the fact that Boston is also sinking.  I did not see.  Boston Globe article Jan 5 2018 (teaser - only a couple paragraphs and unable to cut and paste) starts out with "With its gradually sinking low lying lands"  And nothing about Dorchestor next door with the less rich mostly housing and stores. 

The key word "fighting" should be  supplanted by "losing" as the lowereing land an rising sea is supplanting Dorchestor and Boston "faster than expected."

[Shared Humanity]

The best long term strategy for coastal cities will be a managed retreat. Absent this strategy, it will be a chaotic, mismanaged retreat. Think New Orleans but on a much grander scale with more casualties.

[kassy]

A puzzling past sea level rise might have its missing piece

About 14,650 years ago, sea level jumped 12 meters in just a few centuries.

...

 About 14,650 years ago, as the thawing of the last ice began to hit its stride, sea level made a remarkable jump of 12 meters or more—and did so in less than 400 years. It's an event known to scientists as Meltwater Pulse 1A.

Figuring out where all that water came from hasn’t been easy. ... , but models of past ice sheet change haven’t quite added up.

A new study led by Jo Brendryen at the University of Bergen takes an interesting route to discover that the melting of the Eurasian Ice Sheet, which has largely been overlooked, might just explain things.

...

Back to the ice sheets. During the last glacial period, an ice sheet once stretched across Scandinavia and the Barents Sea. The record of its shrinking is based on carbon dating of seafloor sediment cores, pinpointing times that ice retreated and life returned to a location. The reconstructions have indicated that the ice here had basically melted before the start of Meltwater Pulse 1A, giving it a clear alibi. But the carbon-dated ages assumed that the deep ocean carbon-14 delay in that region was constant over time, matching the modern pattern.

In this new study, the researchers looked carefully at that assumption. They turned to a seemingly unlikely source—a cave in China. There is actually a pretty good correlation between ocean circulation, the temperatures in the North Atlantic, and the Asian Monsoon rains, linked by a series of climatic dominoes. Cave records have excellent timelines, with annual layers and uranium radiometric dating.

By lining up the wiggles in the cave record and Norwegian Sea sediment records, the researchers avoid having to guess the unknown deep ocean carbon-14 delay. Instead, they can calculate that delay and its changes, providing a new calibration for seafloor paleoclimate records in this region.

With that done, the reconstructed timing of Eurasian Ice Sheet melt shifts. Rather than showing that the local ice melted before Meltwater Pulse 1A even started, they see a major loss of ice during this event. Previous reconstructions gave the Eurasian Ice Sheet credit for perhaps one meter of the 12 or more meters of sea level rise that occurred then. This study pushes that contribution up to about five meters—plus another meter or so in the century following.

There are obvious challenges to working out which giant block of ice melted thousands of years ago. But there are valuable clues. When an ice sheet melts, sea level rise doesn’t rise equally all around the world. The gravitational attraction of a massive ice sheet actually pulls seawater to it, raising sea levels near the sheet a bit. As the ice sheet shrinks, its gravitational pull relaxes, so sea level can actually fall right next to the ice sheet, even as it rises elsewhere. And the records of sea level change in various places are actually consistent with the Eurasian Ice Sheet being a big source: sites around Norway and Finland show a drop in sea level during this period of high-speed global sea level rise.

Re-aligning the Eurasian Ice Sheet history would make it significantly easier to understand where 12 meters of sea level came from, but it also raises some interesting questions. For example, such a massive flow of freshwater into the Norwegian Sea could be expected to gum up the critically important south-to-north conveyor belt current in the Atlantic Ocean, but records indicate it was actually quite strong during this time.  And how, exactly, did this portion of the Eurasian Ice Sheet collapse so quickly?

That question about the past is of interest to our future. The portion of the Eurasian Ice Sheet in question straddled topographic lows in contact with the ocean, making it vulnerable to rapid collapse. The same is true of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet today—the biggest wildcard for future sea level rise. Every ice sheet is different and the local details matter, but an equally rapid collapse of ice in Antarctica would be a worst-case scenario.

Nature Geoscience, 2020. DOI: 10.1038/s41561-020-0567-4 (About DOIs).

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/a-puzzling-past-sea-level-rise-might-have-its-missing-piece/

[Tom_Mazanec]

Data centers, fiber optic cables at risk from rising sea levels
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/data-centers-fiber-optic-cables-at-risk-from-rising-sea-levels/

According to the study, in 15 years some 1,186 miles (1,908km) of long-haul fiber and 2,429 miles (3,909km) of metro fiber will be underwater, while 1,101 termination points will be surrounded by the sea. “Given the fact that most fiber conduit is underground, we expect the effects of sea level rise could be felt well before the 15 year horizon,” the paper states.

Additionally, “in 2030, about 771 PoPs, 235 data centers, 53 landing stations, 42 IXPs will be affected by a one-foot rise in sea level.”

[vox_mundi]

Mississippi Delta Marshes In State of Irreversible Collapse: Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-mississippi-delta-marshes-state-irreversible.html

Given the present-day rate of global sea-level rise, remaining marshes in the Mississippi Delta are likely to drown, according to a new Tulane University study.

A key finding of the study, published in Science Advances, is that coastal marshes experience tipping points, where a small increase in the rate of sea-level rise leads to widespread submergence.

The loss of 2,000 square miles (5,000 km2) of wetlands in coastal Louisiana over the past century is well documented, but it has been more challenging to predict the fate of the remaining 6,000 square miles (15,000 km2) of marshland.

The study used hundreds of sediment cores collected since the early 1990s to examine how marshes responded to a range of rates of sea-level rise during the past 8,500 years.

"Previous investigations have suggested that marshes can keep up with rates of sea-level rise as high as half an inch per year (10 mm/yr), but those studies were based on observations over very short time windows, typically a few decades or less," said Torbjörn Törnqvist, lead author and Vokes Geology Professor in the Tulane Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

"We have taken a much longer view by examining marsh response more than 7,000 years ago, when global rates of sea-level rise were very rapid but within the range of what is expected later this century."

The researchers found that in the Mississippi Delta most marshes drown in a few centuries once the rate of sea-level rise exceeds about one-tenth of an inch per year (3 mm/yr). When the rate exceeds a quarter of an inch per year (7.5 mm/yr), drowning occurs in about half a century

"The scary thing is that the present-day rate of global sea-level rise, due to climate change, has already exceeded the initial tipping point for marsh drowning," Törnqvist said. "And as things stand right now, the rate of sea-level rise will continue to accelerate and put us on track for marshes to disappear even faster in the future."

Open Access: Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, et.al. Tipping points of Mississippi Delta marshes due to accelerated sea-level rise, Science Advances (2020)
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/21/eaaz5512

[Juan C. García]

Video: https://climatecrocks.com/2020/05/28/new-video-breaking-bad-news-in-florida-keys/

More here from my interview with Andrea Dutton in December, at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.

Scientists keep telling me about the emotional challenges of breaking bad news about climate change. It’s a tightrope.
There’s hope we can steer away from the cliff as a planet, but changes already in the pipeline are going to be devastating to vulnerable areas.

Bud Ward in Yale Climate Connections:

Projections point to more than three feet of sea-level rise by 2100, posing deep challenges for one of the U.S.’s most iconic tourist sites – the Florida Keys, where in many places residences, highways, and infrastructure are at less than three feet.

Moreover, those 2100 projections “almost give you a false sense of complacency,” cautions scientist and 2019 MacArthur “genius” fellowship winner Andrea Dutton. She says in this month’s Yale Climate Connections “This Is Not Cool” video that extreme storms affecting the Keys will occur “with increasing frequency as you approach 2100,” and well before that three-foot average rise takes hold.

Dutton expresses concerns that the public may not be “in the right mindset” concerning time projections for rising sea levels. “You can’t just pick up cities and move them,” she says. “There’s going to be some amount of adaptation, there’s going to be some amount of retreat” leading up to the period when that overall three-foot average is, as they say, “the new normal.”

[vox_mundi]

Mangrove Trees Won't Survive Sea-Level Rise By 2050 If Emissions Aren't Cut
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-mangrove-trees-wont-survive-sea-level.html

Mangrove trees—valuable coastal ecosystems found in Florida and other warm climates—won't survive sea-level rise by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions aren't reduced, according to a Rutgers co-authored study in the journal Science.

... Using sediment data from the last 10,000 years, an international team led by Macquarie University in Australia estimated the chances of mangrove survival based on rates of sea-level rise.

When rates exceeded 6 millimeters per year, similar to estimates under high-emissions scenarios for 2050, scientists found that mangroves were very likely to stop keeping pace with the rising water levels. Mangroves are more likely to survive when sea-level rise is less than 5 millimeters (about 0.2 inches) per year, which is projected for low-emissions scenarios this century.

"Under high-emissions scenarios, rates of sea-level rise on many tropical coastlines will exceed 7 millimeters per year, the rate at which we concluded there's a 6.2 percent probability mangroves can sustain growth," said co-author Erica Ashe, a post-doctoral scientist in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences in the School of Arts and Sciences at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. "The loss of these mangrove ecosystems could result in increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and fewer vital buffers against storm surges in the long run."

Mangroves will naturally move inland if they can't build vertically, but coastal developments along many coastlines already greatly impede such movement. The findings stress the importance of mitigating the magnitude of rapid sea-level rise and ensuring that coastal adaptation measures allow mangroves to expand across coastal lowlands.

N. Saintilan at Macquarie University in Macquarie Park, NSW, Australia el al., "Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise," Science (2020).
https://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aba2656

"Blue carbon from the past forecasts the future," Science (2020)
https://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.abc3735

[bluice]

First, regarding the current SLR I like to use Aviso; however, they are currently down for emergency server work but when they are backup you can look as the Jason-2 and/or Jason-3 satellite data at the first link (also, for ease of reference, I attached the first image of Jason-3 SLR data through early 2019 and the second image of all Aviso records from Dec 1992 to August 2019).  Also, you can look at the second linked article that has images like the third attached that shows very clear SLR acceleration at Norfolk, Virginia.

https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html
&
US Sea-Level Report Cards: 2019 Data Adds to Trend in Acceleration
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-sea-level-cards-trend.html

Second, sidd provided a reference to Meltwater Pulse 1A; which is a period that exhibited multiple meters of SLR per century.

Third, to get multiple meters of sea level rise this century would require at least the initiation of an MICI-type of collapse of the WAIS starting no later than 2060 but possibly initiating as early as 2035.  Also, I note that E3SM1 only assumes MISI-type of marine glacier response this century.  If you want to watch a nice video of this topic go back to the original post of this thread and watch prokaryotes' video about the 'Ice Apocalypse' article by Eric Holthaus 2017.

Finally, the fourth image shows that in 2017, NOAA formally recognized the risk (to SLR) that the WAIS might at least partially collapse this century under the right conditions.

Cross-posting ALSR's informative sea level rise post from his own thread. It should be on the sea level thread and I think it's important to raise this thread.

Eyeballing Aviso data shows that average sea level rise has doubled in less than two decades from approximately 2mm/year between 2000-2005 to appr. 4 mm/year between 2015 and 2019.

These figures correlate with Gerontocrat's calculations at #954. 

I think it's fair to expect around 6 mm/y SLR at year 2030. That will be enough to trigger some of the consequences found on this thread, such as mangrove die-off above.

Also, SLR is not spread evenly around the globe so some places will experience even more on certain years. Real estate in Florida may not be the best investment.

2010's was the decade of heat waves and wildfires.  My guess is that 2020's will be the decade of the sea level rise. Right now it's a somewhat abstract nuisance, but 10 years from now everybody is relocating and building seawalls like there's no tomorrow (sic).

[dnem]

The 2020s may be the decade of Sea Level Rise. But, if so, it will be the decade of SLR AND heat waves, wild fires, and...

[bluice]

The 2020s may be the decade of Sea Level Rise. But, if so, it will be the decade of SLR AND heat waves, wild fires, and...

Yep, they aren't going to disappear, just getting worse.

There is one crucial difference, though. Whereas heat waves and extreme weather are temporary events (=weather), sea level will rise and rise and rise... Of course weather and tides will have an effect, but at some point people will realize their place of living is becoming uninhabitable and their property worthless.

I can imagine that to have a massive psychological impact.

[Tom_Mazanec]

The 2020s may be the decade of Sea Level Rise. But, if so, it will be the decade of SLR AND heat waves, wild fires, and...

Yep, they aren't going to disappear, just getting worse.

There is one crucial difference, though. Whereas heat waves and extreme weather are temporary events (=weather), sea level will rise and rise and rise... Of course weather and tides will have an effect, but at some point people will realize their place of living is becoming uninhabitable and their property worthless.

I can imagine that to have a massive psychological impact.

Especially because that oceanfront property is often the property of the One Percent.

[bluice]

Especially because that oceanfront property is often the property of the One Percent.

In the US maybe, I don't know about that. Not so much in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Africa or elsewhere.

Plenty of ordinary people have homes or other property near the sea. And we shouldn't forget public infrastructure either.

[kassy]

In the US plenty of ordinary people live on the seafront too.

[Tom_Mazanec]

I was just hoping the One Percent would get hurt and then maybe, I don’t know, they’ll catch a clue?

[kassy]

Well making up stuff on the internet is not helping. Don´t do that.

[Tom_Mazanec]

kassy, I thought ocean front property was the kind that millionaires went for...that that was a selling point for the upper upper class. I wasn’t “making it up”, that’s what I thought.

[gerontocrat]

I was just hoping the One Percent would get hurt and then maybe, I don’t know, they’ll catch a clue?

Experience will triumph over hope.

There are LAWS in the States that require more money to be spent on sea defences where property on the shore is high value than where property is of low value.

High value property tends to be where rich people live and places where rich people work, shop, & play i.e. low population density. Low value property - that's for your huddled masses.

ie. the Law discriminates for the rich and agin the poor.  'Twas ever thus - the rich will always be with us.

[The Walrus]

kassy, I thought ocean front property was the kind that millionaires went for...that that was a selling point for the upper upper class. I wasn’t “making it up”, that’s what I thought.

Your statement is generally true.  Not just for the U.S, but most of the western world as well.  This is due to the aesthetic value of the waterfront property.  Any property with just a view of the water increases dramatically in value, whether residential or commercial.  Travel and tourism have driven these increases.  This is not true in other parts of the world.  Any building on or near the water faces challenges from the sea that those built further inland do not.  In low lying countries, like Bangladesh, this is a major issue.  This is not a major issue in Africa, due to the locations of the population, higher waterfront grounds, and lack of major oceanic storms.

[wili]

'Coastal' can have many meanings, I suppose.

But what is relevant here is proximity to current and future sea levels.

There are lots of bayous connected to the Mississippi Delta that are essentially at current sea level, but do not, by and large house the wealthy along their banks...quite the opposite.

[The Walrus]

'Coastal' can have many meanings, I suppose.

But what is relevant here is proximity to current and future sea levels.

There are lots of bayous connected to the Mississippi Delta that are essentially at current sea level, but do not, by and large house the wealthy along their banks...quite the opposite.

Yes, there are always exceptions. 

[gerontocrat]

Any building on or near the water faces challenges from the sea that those built further inland do not.  In low lying countries, like Bangladesh, this is a major issue.  This is not a major issue in Africa, due to the locations of the population, higher waterfront grounds, and lack of major oceanic storms.

Not a major issue i Africa? The data says the reverse ...

Sea-Level Rise: West Africa Is Sinking

The western coast of Africa, stretching more than 6500km from Mauritania to Cameroon, is in peril. Caused by global warming, rising sea levels are causing massive erosion — in some places eating away more than 30 metres of land in a single year. 

Sea levels are expected to rise by more than 76 cm around the world by the end of this century, but they are expected to rise faster than the global average in west Africa, where the coastal areas host about one-third of the region’s population and generate 56% of its GDP. A recent World Bank study shows that flooding and coastal erosion due to sea-level rise cost the region about $3.8 billion and cause 13,000 deaths in just one year. 

Ghana — the fastest growing economy in the world — is among the worst affected countries in the region. Coastal erosion at its 580km coastline comprising of sandy beaches and outcrops has consumed areas like Keta, Ada, and Shama. Rising temperatures have triggered the migration of fish stocks while salinisation has contaminated farmlands and freshwater reserves affecting the livelihoods of millions of fishermen and farmers. Frequent inundation has led to the destruction of commercial buildings, houses, and even human lives.

Once a thriving trading hub, Ghana’s Keta city has suffered massive coastal erosion in recent decades that forced more than half of the population to flee. Fuveme — a coastal village in Keta that lies between the Gulf of Guinea and the Keta Lagoon — has already been reduced to an island forcing thousands of families to migrate to the inland.

Senegal, another west African country, has been witnessing the devastating effects of sea-level rise this decade. The country’s famous colonial city Saint-Louis — a UNESCO World Heritage site with a population of 300,000 people — is seeing houses destroyed, streets flooded, and crops damaged by the encroaching saltwater.

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, too has low lying cities that are being destroyed by the sea. Its most populous city Lagos, a megacity located next to the Atlantic Ocean, consists of a mainland and a series of islands with an estimated population of 21 million. A large number of city residents who live on waterfront slums with no proper drainage or water systems have been suffering due to rising sea levels as their dwellings get flooded frequently.

Other west African countries such as Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, and Togo face a high rate of coastal erosion. A World Bank study reveals that 56% of the coastline in these countries has been eroding 2 metre per year. Damages from the sea-level rise cost the government of Cote d’Ivoire nearly $2 billion — 4.9% of its GDP, while it cost the Benin government $229 million — 2.5% of the country’s GDP.

https://earth.org/sea-level-rise-west-africa-is-sinking/#:~:text=Sea%2Dlevel%20rise%20is%20threatening,villages%2C%20decimating%20dwellings%20and%20farmlands.&text=The%20western%20coast%20of,to%20Cameroon%2C%20is%20in%20peril.

and if you want more..
Sea level rise impact on African coastal zones

Introduction
The African coastal zone, most of which is very low-lying, consists of the West, Central, East and Mediterranean coastal zones. Within these coastal zones are many cities: Dakar, Abidjan, Accra, Lagos, Dar es Salaam, Alexandria, Tripoli and Tunis. These coastal cities are characterized by teeming populations, industries, dense transportation and communication networks as well as extensive coast-based tourist resorts. At present, widespread erosion and flooding are devastating vast areas along the African coastline, causing severe ecological problems as well as creating a high level of misery for the people. A rise in sea level of say one metre, which in many places may be accentuated by the phenomenon of subsidence, would aggravate the already existing ecological problems through increased rates of coastal erosion, more persistent flooding, loss of wetlands, increased salinization of groundwater and soil as well as greater influx of diverse pollutants.

Other socio-economic impacts include uprooting human settlements, dislodging port and navigational facilities, upsetting coastal fishery as well as coast-based tourism. These adverse effects would impose unbearable pressure on the already hard-pressed African economy. This then calls for the establishment of coastal management policies including a phased disengagement from the coast, where practicable, and enforcement of set back lines. In already built-up areas, the use of low-cost, low-technology erosion and flood defense measures are advocated.

http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-153/004-153.html

[sidd]

Re: "heat waves and extreme weather are temporary events"

The meaning of "temporary" is difficult. How confident are we that  that a 100F heat wave cant persist for more than a season over the entire South Asian landmass ? Or a year ? Or that a succession of hurricanes cant barrel landward in Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Bengal every year ? Or even all year round ?

sidd

[bluice]

Re: "heat waves and extreme weather are temporary events"

The meaning of "temporary" is difficult. How confident are we that  that a 100F heat wave cant persist for more than a season over the entire South Asian landmass ? Or a year ? Or that a succession of hurricanes cant barrel landward in Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Bengal every year ? Or even all year round ?

sidd

Only thing we can be confident is that weird and unpleasant weather extremes will become more commonplace.

I nevertheless stand by my claim that psychologically sea level rise is even worse than extreme weather. A heat wave will eventually pass, if only for a brief moment. Same goes for storms. Psychologically we are accustomed to weather coming and going, but sea level will keep on rising and there is nothing you can do about it.

At some point in time (are we already getting there?) the general opinion will realize that future ourselves and our offspring will inhabit a planet that will be progressively worse than the one we have right now. I expect then we will see the true social cost of carbon emissions.

[gerontocrat]

USA High Tide Floods - NOAA report

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Techrpt_092_2019_State_of_US_High_Tide_Flooding_with_a_2020_Outlook_30June2020.pdf
2019 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding with a 2020 Outlook

4. SUMMARY
NOAA tide gauges are measuring rapid changes in coastal flooding along U.S. coastlines due to
RSL rise. The most noticeable impact of RSL rise is the increasing frequency of HTF, whose
cumulative impacts are damaging to infrastructure and cause other economic impacts
(transportation delays, businesses closed, tourism impacts, etc.) in coastal communities. Thus,
HTF is of a growing concern to coastal residents, emergency managers, community planners and
resource managers. In response, NOAA will continue to provide not only projections for the
coming decades (e.g., Sweet et al., 2018) but also for the coming year to support planning and
preparedness.

The national median HTF occurrence was 4 days in 2019, and the trend continues to accelerate
(a nonlinear rise).The median number of HTF along U.S. coastlines was more than twice what it was in 2000 due to rising RSL,  which nationally reached an all-time high of 0.34 m (1.1 ft) as
measured since 1920 (last 100 years). Currently HTF is affecting mostly U.S. East and Gulf
coastlines where annual HTF frequencies are upwards of twice the national rate. This is due to
relatively high rates of RSL rise (57 of 62 locations broke records in 2019), propensity for storm
surge/set up and flat and low-lying coastal elevations (Sweet and Park, 2014). Nineteen locations
broke or tied their all-time HTF records (median of 13 days) in 2019, including most locations
along the Texas coastline and at Miami, Savannah, Charleston and Annapolis to name a few. The
trend in annual frequencies of HTF is accelerating (increasing nonlinearly) in 75% of East and
Gulf Coast locations with most of the others linearly increasing. To put these records in
perspective, as an example, it took the first 58 years of operation (since 1921) of the NOAA tide
gauge in Charleston to record 13 HTFs; in 2019, it had that many alone.
Next year (May 2020–April 2021), acceleration in HTF and its impacts are expected to continue.
Near-neutral ENSO conditions are not likely to substantially affect the number of flood days.
Nationally, the median HTF outlook is 2–6 days (likely range). Regionally, the 2020 HTF
outlook is:
• 6–11 days along the Northeast Atlantic
• 5–11 days along the Western Gulf
• 3–6 days along the Southeast Atlantic
• 2–5 days along the Eastern Gulf
• 0–7 days along the Northwestern Pacific
• 0–3 days along the Southwestern Pacific

By 2030, the national HTF frequency is likely to increase about 2–3 fold (national median of 7–
15 days) compared to today without additional flood-management efforts.

By 2050, HTF is likely to be 5- to 15-fold higher (national median of 25–75 days),
and potentially in some locations reaching nearly 180 days per year, effectively becoming the
new high tide.

[kassy]

Sea Level Rise Alone Threatens to Crush the Global Economy

A new study shows we face a wet and costly scenario. In the climate-ravaged future, floods that hit once every 100 years would occur every 10 years – and it could cause $14.2 trillion (£10.9 trillion) in infrastructure damage globally. Yes, trillions.

Published in Scientific Reports on Thursday, the new study takes a look at the consequences of sea level rise. By 2100, up to 20 per cent of global GDP could be threatened by coastal flooding under a worst case scenario. Areas exposed to flooding could also increase by 48 per cent, an area roughly the size of France. But it doesn’t have to be that way. The level of damage depends largely on how much higher greenhouse gas emissions go.

The authors came together from Australia, the Netherlands and Germany to measure the quantitative damage rising seas could cause. To conduct this analysis, they examined the three processes that drive flooding: tides, storm surge and waves. They looked at conditions under two climate scenarios, one where greenhouse gas emissions rapidly climate and another where they level off in the middle of century and then decline. The authors used observed data from 1979 to 2014 to test against their models of what the damage could look like in 2050 and 2100.

Once they were able to recreate the sea level rise and potential flooding extent, the team looked to GDP and population databases to figure out what that impact would look like to society. And, well, that impact looks pretty bad.

Money is one thing, especially when we’re talking about trillions of dollars worth of damage. The $14.2 trillion price tag for inaction is a huge one the world should absolutely be striving to avoid. But human life is also endangered by rising seas. The paper found that up to 116 million more people will be exposed to coastal flooding by 2100 under the worst-case scenario as rising seas make high tides higher and storm surge more destructive. The paper also flags northwestern Europe, southeastern and east Asia, northeastern U.S., and northern Australia will face the brunt of it. Identifying these so-called “hot spots” is a major benefit of this paper for future research, Kristina Dahl, a senior climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists who was not involved in the study, told Gizmodo in an email.

The findings also show that cutting emissions would also reduce the risk to life and property. The study found those exposed to flood risk would “only” rise by 82 million and the GDP exposed would top out at $12.8 trillion. That’s still not good, of course, and it points to the need to prepare for a wetter future now.

and much more....

https://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2020/07/sea-level-rise-alone-threatens-to-crush-the-global-economy/

Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67736-6

Let´s hope this awakes some more of those types that manage those trillions to bribe the politicians to actually do something. 

[kassy]

Climate change: Dams played key role in limiting sea level rise

The construction of large-scale dams has played a surprising role in limiting rising seas, say scientists.

Over the past century, melting glaciers and the thermal expansion of sea water have driven up ocean levels.

But this new study finds that dams almost stalled the rising seas in the 1970s because of the amount of water they prevented from entering the oceans.

Without them, the annual rate of rise would have been around 12% higher.

...

There are around 58,000 large dams in the world right now with many of them constructed over the past 60 years.

The 1950s to 1970s saw a building boom with several large-scale constructions completed, including the Kariba Dam in Zimbabwe, the Bratsk Dam in Siberia and the Aswan High Dam in Egypt.

When the full impact of these giants came on stream in the 1970s, their ability to block water from going into the sea slowed the ongoing rise in global sea level.

"A large part of this dip is because sea level [rise] was almost brought to a halt because of the amount of water stored in dams," said lead author Dr Thomas Frederikse, from Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

"So by building dams, we almost stopped sea level rise for a decade or so."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53836018

[The Walrus]

That nature study could be considered a worst case scenario as they use RCP8.5 in their model.

[vox_mundi]

Acceleration of Coastal Overtopping Around the World
https://phys.org/news/2021-06-coastal-overtopping-world.html



The combination of sea level rise, tides, storm surge and waves has increased the overtopping of natural and artificial coastal protection by nearly 50% in the last two decades. This revelation comes from an international study coordinated by IRD, involving international partners . The study was published in Nature Communications on June 18th 2021.

By combining satellite data and digital models, the researchers have shown that coastal overtopping, and consequently the risk of flooding, is set to further accelerate over the 21st century, by up to 50-fold under a high emission global warming scenario, especially in the tropics. This increase is principally caused by a combination of sea level rise and ocean waves.

... The scientists  performed an initial global assessment of the potential coastal overtopping over the 21st century, by taking into account different sea-level rise scenarios. Results show that the number of overtopping hours could increase with a faster pace than the average rate of sea-level rise. "The frequency of overtopping is accelerating exponentially and will be clearly perceptible as early as 2050, regardless of the climate scenario. By the end of the century, the intensity of the acceleration will depend on the future trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and therefore the rise in sea-level. In the case of a high emissions scenario, the number of overtopping hours globally could increase fifty-fold compared with current levels," Rafaël Almar warns.

"As we go along the 21st century, more and more regions will be exposed to overtopping and consequent coastal flooding, especially in the tropics, north-western United States, Scandinavia, and the Far East of Russia."

Rafael Almar et al, A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping, Nature Communications (2021)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24008-9

---------------------------------------------

Are Coastal Marshes Drowning Faster Than Expected?
https://phys.org/news/2021-06-coastal-marshes-faster.html

Salt marshes are a fundamental habitat for fishes and birds, can capture and bury large quantities of organic carbon, and play an important role in protecting coastal communities from storm surges. Comprised of a delicate balance of just enough organic and inorganic deposit to keep them above water, coastal marshes are home to a rich variety of plants and animals

But with sea levels rising at an accelerated rate, these vital ecosystems are drowning.

Orencio Duran Vinent, assistant professor in the Department of Ocean Engineering at Texas A&M University, and his team have discovered that rising water levels do not need to outpace the average growth of salt marshes for them to be swallowed by the sea. Instead, it is enough for water levels to increase at a rate slightly higher than the slower-growing areas within the marsh to lead to widespread drowning. The team found, through computational and analytical modeling, that the traditional approach to combating marsh drowning may not be the most effective for the ongoing preservation of these coastal ecosystems.

Using data collected by the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences, the team constructed computational and analytical models to investigate how rising sea levels and the transportation of sediment affected the resilience of marshes. What they discovered was a new form of marsh destabilization, called runaway fragmentation, and ultimately, that the ecosystems could drown at a far lower rate of sea-level rise than previously believed. In fact, their model predicts that the current rates at which sea levels are rising are close to a tipping point for widespread marsh drowning.

Runaway fragmentation and the consequential drowning of salt marshes occur when the rising sea level slowly drowns interior regions within the marsh, creating small ponds over time in a process known as ponding. Each pond grows larger in size, eventually stabilizing as new inorganic sediment is deposited at the margins that prevent further drowning. However, more and more ponds appear over time, creating an environment that looks like Swiss cheese.

"Our research suggests that ponding is not just an isolated event but an early sign of extensive future marsh loss, even at current rates of sea level rise," Duran Vinent said.



Orencio Duran Vinent et al, Onset of runaway fragmentation of salt marshes, One Earth (2021).
https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00119-6?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2590332221001196%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

[morganism]

Think Twice Before You Build That Seawall
All the water still has to go somewhere.

 For example, they estimated that if the local government was to throw up a wall around San Jose, a city in the South Bay, it would inundate other communities with the equivalent of 14,400 Olympic-size pools’ worth of redirected waters. San Jose would be saved, but nearby Redwood City and other communities would be screwed. “That equates to $723 million of additional flood damage costs after just one high tide during spring, when the waters are naturally highest,” says Guerry. “And that’s just from building one large seawall in one small part of the bay.” And that $700 million-plus figure doesn’t account for potential damage to ecosystems and fisheries, so the tally is a conservative one.

The extra water pushed back by San Jose’s wall would even accumulate clear across the bay, in Napa and Sonoma, 50 miles north. The damage would go the other way too: If the Napa and Sonoma coasts were walled off, the South Bay would see tens of millions of dollars in damages."

https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2021/07/think-twice-before-you-build-that-seawall/

[gerontocrat]

Mount Etna's solution to sea level rise? - grow taller

Mount Etna taller than ever as activity sparks volcanic growth spurt

National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology says south-eastern crater now measures 3,357 measure

[kassy]

Onset Of Modern Sea Level Rise Began In 1863

An international team of scientists including Rutgers researchers has found that modern rates of sea level rise began emerging in 1863 as the Industrial Age intensified, coinciding with evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt.

The study, which used a global database of sea-level records spanning the last 2,000 years, will help local and regional planners prepare for future sea-level rise. The study appears in the journal Nature Communications.

...

By examining the worldwide records, the researchers found that globally, the onset of modern rates of sea-level rise occurred in 1863, in line with the Industrial Revolution. At individual sites in the United States, modern rates emerged earliest in the mid-Atlantic region in the mid to late 19th century, and later in Canada and Europe, emerging by the mid-20th century.

The study is especially timely given NOAA’s recently-released report detailing the rapid acceleration of sea-level rise on U.S. coasts. 

“We can be virtually certain the global rate of sea-level rise from 1940 to 2000 was faster than all previous 60-year intervals over the last 2,000 years,” said Jennifer S. Walker, lead author of the study and postdoctoral associate in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “Having a thorough understanding of site-specific sea-level changes over long timescales is imperative for regional and local planning and response to future sea level rise.”

...

https://www.eurasiareview.com/19022022-onset-of-modern-sea-level-rise-began-in-1863/

[gerontocrat]

JPL / NASA produce sea level rise data computed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center under the HDR auspices of the NASA Sea Level Change program. There are frequent updates

The data now runs from 1993 to end 2021.

The data tells us that annual sea level rise is now running at around 5 mm per annum, due to ever-increasing heat content  (La Nina) and ice-sheet and glacial mass loss. When we get an El Nino some of that ocean heat will be released to the atmosphere and could well cause a drop in annual sea level rise.

click images to enlarge

[vox_mundi]

Hidden In Caves: Mineral Overgrowths Reveal Unprecedented Modern Sea-level Rise
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-hidden-caves-mineral-overgrowths-reveal.html

The early 1900s were an exciting time across the world, with rapid advances in the steel, electric and automobile industries. The industrial changes also mark an inflection point in our climate. According to an international team of researchers led by the University of South Florida (USF), the sea level has risen 18 centimeters since the start of the 20th century.

The study, featured on the cover of the July 1 issue of Science Advances, works to identify preindustrial sea levels and examines the impact of modern greenhouse warming on sea-level rise.

For this study, they focused on analyzing deposits from 4,000 years ago to present day.

The team found evidence of a previously unknown 20 centimeter sea-level rise that occurred nearly 3,200 years ago when ice caps melted naturally over the course of 400 years at a rate of 0.5 millimeters per year. Otherwise, despite major climatic events like Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, the sea level remained exceptionally stable until 1900.

"The results reported in our study are alarming," said lead author Bogdan P. Onac, geology professor at USF. "The sea-level rise since the 1900s is unprecedented when compared to the natural change in ice volumes over the last 4,000 years. This implies that if global temperatures continue to rise, sea levels could eventually reach higher levels than scientists previously estimated."

"If humans continue to be the main driver and the temperature increases 1.5 degrees in the near future, there will be irreversible damage," Onac said. "There will be no turning back from that point on."

Bogdan P. Onac et al, Exceptionally stable preindustrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea, Science Advances (2022).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm6185



A Bayesian statistical analysis (19) of the POS data (green and yellow envelopes denote the 67 and 95% credible intervals, respectively) shows that RSL (uncorrected for GIA) remained still at −0.25 m between ~3.9 and ~3.3 ka and at preindustrial GMSL for the past ~2.8 ka. Blue and red curves show the GMSL with respect to 1900 CE (mean with 1σ uncertainties) in (1) and (, respectively. Solid circles and open rhombs denote POS analyzed at University of New Mexico and University of Bern, respectively. The inset focuses on the RSL position measured in three caves since 2008. Codes in the legend represent the identifiers of each U-series dated POS as listed in table S1. Vertical uncertainties on the POS data are omitted from the figure but are shown on fig. S18A.

... Statistical analysis indicates that sea level rose locally by 0.12 to 0.31 m (95% confidence) from 3.26 to 2.84 thousand years (ka) ago (2σ) and remained within 0.08 m (95% confidence) of preindustrial levels from 2.84 ka to 1900 CE.

There is virtual certainty (>0.999 probability) that the average GMSL rise since 1900 CE has exceeded even the high average rate of sea-level rise between 3.26 and 2.84 ka inferred from the POS record. We conclude that modern GMSL rise is anomalous relative to any natural variability in ice volumes over the past 4000 years.

[Shared Humanity]

The inevitable future of much of the low lying coastal regions of the U.S.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/feb/09/louisiana-population-us-census-new-orleans


To get a sense of the size of the exodus, nearly 250K people have moved from the most vulnerable areas of the Louisiana coastline since Katrina. (First Image) They will not be returning. The exodus will continue through this century and it will spread to adjacent areas of the coastline as sea levels rise.

I thought I would revisit this post I made in 2014 which showed the dramatic exodus of people from the coast of Louisiana due to hurricane Katrina. I wanted to show this in 2014 as these people should rightfully be considered climate refugees and thus captures the social costs of sea level rise in stark terms. I suggested that these people would not return to New Orleans and Jefferson Parish's so I thought I would see what the population has done in the intervening years.

While New Orleans Parish has seen a rise in population since 2014, the increase does not bring the population back to pre Katrina levels. Jefferson Parish population has not increased at all in the intervening 8 years.

It has been 20 years since Katrina and the lives of at least 200K Americans have been permanently impacted by Katrina in the sense that they are still climate refugees. This scene will occur repeatedly across the planet over the remainder of the century.

[kassy]

Environmental sciences: Increasing social costs of carbon dioxide

The cost of damages to society caused by increases in CO2 emissions may be nearly four times higher than previously estimated, a paper in Nature suggests. The current US government value for the social cost of carbon is US$51 per additional metric tonne of CO2 emissions, whereas the new estimate is US$185 per tonne of CO2. These higher values increase the expected benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies and could inform a wide range of climate policies worldwide.

...

https://www.natureasia.com/en/research/highlight/14201

[dnem]

Not sea level rise but new article in Nature calculating the "social cost of carbon":
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05224-9

Comprehensive Evidence Implies a Higher Social Cost of CO2


Abstract
The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography, and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency, and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO2 ($44-413/t-CO2: 5-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2 percent, a value 3.6-times higher than the US government’s current value of $51/t-CO2. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source GIVE model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared to estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.

[The Walrus]

Not sure that the people exiting New Orleans can be called “climate refugees.”  The massive flooding was caused by years of neglect in the levees.  These levees would have failed with or without any accompanying sea level rise.  Scientists has warned the city for years that a direct hit, such as Katrina supplied, would be devastating.  The warnings went unheeded.

[kassy]

Air pollution can amplify negative effects of climate change, new study finds


The impacts of air pollution on human health, economies, and agriculture differ drastically depending on where on the planet the pollutants are emitted, according to a new study that could potentially incentivize certain countries to cut climate-changing emissions.

Led by The University of Texas at Austin and the University of California San Diego, the study, which was published Sept. 23 in Science Advances, is the first to simulate how aerosol pollution affects both climate and air quality for locations around the globe.

Aerosols are tiny solid particles and liquid droplets that contribute to smog and are emitted from industrial factories, power plants and vehicle tailpipes. They impact human health, agricultural and economic productivity in unique global patterns when compared with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which are the focus of efforts to mitigate climate change.

Although CO2 and aerosols are often emitted at the same time during the combustion of fuel, the two substances behave differently in Earth's atmosphere, said co-lead author Geeta Persad, an assistant professor at the UT Austin Jackson School of Geosciences.

"Carbon dioxide has the same impact on climate no matter who emits it," said Persad. "But for these aerosol pollutants, they tend to stay concentrated near where they're emitted, so the effect that they have on the climate system is very patchy and very dependent on where they're coming from."

The researchers found that, depending on where they are emitted, aerosols can worsen the social costs of carbon -- an estimate of the economic costs greenhouse gasses have on society -- by as much as 66%. The scientists looked at eight key regions: Brazil, China, East Africa, Western Europe, India, Indonesia, United States and South Africa.

"This research highlights how the harmful effects of our emissions are generally underestimated," said Jennifer Burney, co-lead author and the Marshall Saunders Chancellor's Endowed Chair in Global Climate Policy and Research at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. "CO2 is making the planet warmer, but it also gets emitted with a bunch of other compounds that impact people and plants directly and cause climate changes in their own right."

...

To study aerosols' influence in comparison to CO2, the team created a set of climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. They ran simulations in which each of the eight regions produced identical aerosol emissions and mapped how temperature, precipitation, and surface air quality were affected across the globe. Then they connected this data with known relationships between climate and air quality and infant mortality, crop productivity, and gross domestic product across the eight regions. In a final step, they compared the total societal costs of these aerosol-driven impacts against the societal costs of co-emitted CO2 in each of the eight regions, and produced global maps of the combined effects of aerosols and CO2. The researchers said the study is a big step forward from previous work, which either only estimated the air quality impacts of aerosols or didn't consider their diverse global climate effects.

The outcome paints a varied and complicated picture. Emissions from some regions produce climate and air quality effects that range from two to more than 10 times as strong as others and social costs that sometimes affect neighboring regions more than the region that produced the aerosol emissions. For example, in Europe local emissions result in four times as many infant deaths outside Europe as within.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/09/220923153052.htm

[gerontocrat]

For those living in the USA - especially on the coast, there is a paper on projected sea level rise to 2050 @ https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00537-z

The Gulf Coast looks a bit scary.

[kassy]

This will also push salt water much further into land because the sea gets way more pushing power while the rivers stay the same or more likely dwindle if we use more and more water.

[trm1958]

We have a few years until things get interesting. High tides are rising relatively slowly now because of the part of the 18.6 year cycle we are in. But after several years the exponential secular rise and the 18.6 year cycle will reinforce and then bar the door Katie.