PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: June poll

[slow wing]

Hope this is OK, Neven?

This poll will run for 10 days. You can change your vote.

PIOMAS volume minima for previous years:
Year --- Min (km3)
1979 16900
1980 16100
1981 12600
1982 13400
1983 15100
1984 14500
1985 14500
1986 15900
1987 15200
1988 14900
1989 14600
1990 13700
1991 13500
1992 14900
1993 12200
1994 13600
1995 11200
1996 13700
1997 13200
1998 11500
1999 10900
2000 11000
2001 12200
2002 10800
2003 10200
2004  9900
2005  9200
2006  9000
2007  6500
2008  7100
2009  6800
2010  4600
2011  4300
2012  3700
2013  5400
(Revised values courtesy of OSweetMrMath, posted on 12 June 2014. And reset the voting.)



Daily volume plots by year...

(Plot and link courtesy of Wipneus.)

[Neven]

More than OK, slow wing. Thanks for starting it (putting up 2 polls per month is my max).

I've voted between 4 and 4.25 thousand km3, given the cold temps and lack of transport through Fram Strait in past weeks.

[jdallen]

I'm going to be a touch more aggressive, Neven 3.5-3.75.  Without active Fram export, the thicker ice along the CAA is better preserved.  However, looking at how much current ice is peripheral, and the huge gaps opening along the Northern Sea Route, I'm more pessimistic about ice elsewhere.

I'm imagining a 2007 like situation with a lower extent but higher volume than 2012. Area may be close.

[OSweetMrMath]

As I said on the PIOMAS prediction thread, my current estimate for the monthly September value is 5000 cubic km. Recently (2010-2013), the difference between the monthly value and the daily low has been on the order of 500 cubic km. For previous years, the difference was much smaller (around 100 cubic km). I'm going to assume the difference between the monthly low and daily low is going to continue to be large, so my vote is for 4.5-4.75 thousand cubic km.

[ChrisReynolds]

OSMM,

"Recently (2010-2013), the difference between the monthly value and the daily low has been on the order of 500 cubic km. "

Thanks, I'd missed that aspect totally, and I'm considered an obsessive on the 2010 event...


Guess I'd better vote, just a hunch no maths used. Arctic sea ice volume was similar to recent years, with ice being a bit thinner than in 2012 except in the Central Arctic. I don't think we'll have a re-run of 2012, it would need to big a turn around in the weather. But equally I don't expect a re-run of 2013. I peg 4.25 to 4.5 as the central region with lower probabilty tails 0.25 either side. So I vote 4.25 to 4.5.

[opensheart]

I voted for the 5,250 to 5,500 range.
Partly because I see a 'rebound' for 2 years after the 2007 melt.
Partly because I'm feeling we are going to learn something about the 'tail' of sea ice melt.
And partly because I'm tired of reading all the posts that say "according to the forecasts  some huge amounts should melt out next week."   
It does not seem to matter what the CO2 or methane is,  nor how thin or fragmented the ice is, nor how much heat has been pumped into the arctic ocean,  more often than not the sea ice just does not melt out acording to the 2 hour disaster movie timeframe we are accustom to.

[OSweetMrMath]

I think the daily minima listed in the original post are out of date. Recall that the PIOMAS volumes were revised once, leading to the v2.0 data, and then corrected, leading to the v2.1 data. I think the listed values are the v2.0 data. I've pulled the v2.1 data and have listed the minima for each year below.

Year Volume (km3)
1979 16900
1980 16100
1981 12600
1982 13400
1983 15100
1984 14500
1985 14500
1986 15900
1987 15200
1988 14900
1989 14600
1990 13700
1991 13500
1992 14900
1993 12200
1994 13600
1995 11200
1996 13700
1997 13200
1998 11500
1999 10900
2000 11000
2001 12200
2002 10800
2003 10200
2004  9900
2005  9200
2006  9000
2007  6500
2008  7100
2009  6800
2010  4600
2011  4300
2012  3700
2013  5400

(Note the numbers here are consistent with the graph in the original post, unlike the numbers in the original post.)

2009 through 2013 have changed, as well as 1982, which I assume was a typo. Now the difference between the monthly minimum and the daily minimum for each year is consistently around 100 cubic km, so I am revising my prediction to 4750-5000 km3.

[slow wing]

Thanks OSweetMrMath, much appreciated. I have updated the volume numbers for previous years given in the opening post.

Since the changes are substantial for recent years I HAVE RESET THE VOTING.


Apologies for having used the outdated figures and  so requiring people to recast their vote.

[icefest]

I'm going with Between 5000 and 5250, as I expect a similar feedback pattern to the years after 2007. A large rebound followed by a steady drop again.

[DavidR]

In 2007 the average thickness at the minimum extent  (4.3 MKm2) was about 1.5m .
In 2012 (3.7MKm2) it  was about 1m.
I'm predicted 3.1 MKm2 for extent and 0.8 m thickness suggesting  a final volume of ~2.5 Km3

[OSweetMrMath]

Will there be a July poll? I'm still waiting for the data from June to be released so I can update my prediction. When that happens, I look forward to comparing my prediction to everyone else.

[slow wing]

OSMM, yes, I will be happy to do it for July once the June data is released, thanks for asking.

[slow wing]

The median bin chosen for this month's poll, taken in June 2014, was "between 4250 and 4500 km3".



A new poll and thread is up now for the next month: July 2014.