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Author Topic: Medium-Range Forecasts (4-7 days) for the Arctic summer 2014  (Read 2854 times)

Lord M Vader

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Given how unreliable the forecast models have been to give more accurate forecasts spanning more than 4 days maybe this tread is necessary? I'm just guessing here, but I think that virtually everyone here at ASIF is waiting for some real action right now. I admit that I myself want to see it and I think we all get somewhat frustrated as this have turned out to be constantly delayed for a longer while now.

So, given the treads nick we can see that the models call for a transitioning to a more anticyclonic weather pattern in about 72 hours which also seems to persist for at least a couple of days. The HP also looks to strengthen which should yield a substantially drop in the SIE next week. The GFS 12z run also doesn't want the real warm air from Russia to enter the Arctic but at best be confined to the coastline. The latest GFS seems more realistic than the earlier one which put the warm Russian air into the basin.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2014, 09:27:27 PM by Lord M Vader »

Rick Aster

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Re: Long-Range Forecasts (4-7 days) for the Arctic summer 2014
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2014, 08:11:03 PM »
I have started to wonder how much ice melts right along the coast. If there is a pattern of currents carrying ice toward the coast, combined with a warm offshore breeze for some part of the day to melt the ice, it seems to me a large amount of ice could melt in a small area.

MikeAinOz

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Re: Medium-Range Forecasts (4-7 days) for the Arctic summer 2014
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2014, 11:44:32 PM »
LMV perhaps you could post some detail on the sources, reliability and issues of Medium Range Forecasts; in order to get the thread moving a little.
Mike Allen

Michael Hauber

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Re: Medium-Range Forecasts (4-7 days) for the Arctic summer 2014
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2014, 04:42:09 AM »
The latest ECMWF is kinda holy moley spectacular at seven days.  A 975 hp low over Barents sea, pulling gales and massive heat through the large hole in the Laptev.





Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Medium-Range Forecasts (4-7 days) for the Arctic summer 2014
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2014, 11:45:16 AM »
The 00z ECM day 10 chart is the first this year I seen that warrants a "mother of God" type headline.

However, at 10 days away, it will likely have changed beyond recognition on the 12z run later today.

For trends in the 8-10 day range, I like to use this page, which occassionally picks up on strong signals in that range http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

iceman

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Re: Medium-Range Forecasts (4-7 days) for the Arctic summer 2014
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2014, 03:25:43 PM »
Thanks for the link, BTFV.  I'm trying to wean myself off medium-range forecasts, but can't resist a pique now and then.
    The current run looks not too bad for the ice in the 8-10 day range (though the projected low over the Bering strait is quite a wild card).  That anomaly across the entirety of northern Eurasia is quite striking, though.