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AbruptSLR

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #50 on: November 18, 2014, 03:53:10 PM »
crandles,

I do not have time for a long post; however, in his post just before your post, sidd points out that there are other positive feedback mechanisms for Antarctic sea ice growth that the Ferreira et al 2014 models did not capture.  If you are looking for model projection that very closely match all aspects of the observed record, you will need to wait at least ten years for the ACME projection to be available, and you should hope that that Earth System Model had enough money to include the two feedback mechanisms that Ferreirra et al 2014 identified, together with the thousands of other feedback systems affecting the projections (or hindcasts).

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ASLR
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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #51 on: November 19, 2014, 07:33:38 AM »
One thing that I didn't comment in Reply #40 regarding the recovered Nimbus data from the sixties, is that following the record high sea ice extent in -64 with the La Nina, there was a record low two years later after the following El Nino.

Even with those measured mass changes in the glaciers lately and the increase in maximum sea ice extent, I think it is entirely possible to see a dramatic drop in 2015 or -16.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #52 on: November 25, 2014, 12:33:40 AM »
The linked reference shows that the Antarctic sea ice is getting thicker in some areas possibly due to increased rafting of the ice (possibly due to stronger winds and storms, due to climate change):

G. Williams, T. Maksym, J. Wilkinson, C. Kunz, C. Murphy, P. Kimball & H. Singh, (2014), "Thick and deformed Antarctic sea ice mapped with autonomous underwater vehicles", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2299

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2299.html

Abstract: "Satellites have documented trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent and its variability for decades, but estimating sea-ice thickness in the Antarctic from remote sensing data remains challenging. In situ observations needed for validation of remote sensing data and sea-ice models are limited; most have been restricted to a few point measurements on selected ice floes, or to visual shipboard estimates. Here we present three-dimensional (3D) floe-scale maps of sea-ice draft for ten floes, compiled from two springtime expeditions by an autonomous underwater vehicle to the near-coastal regions of the Weddell, Bellingshausen, and Wilkes Land sectors of Antarctica. Mean drafts range from 1.4 to 5.5 m, with maxima up to 16 m. We also find that, on average, 76% of the ice volume is deformed ice. Our surveys indicate that the floes are much thicker and more deformed than reported by most drilling and ship-based measurements of Antarctic sea ice. We suggest that thick ice in the near-coastal and interior pack may be under-represented in existing in situ assessments of Antarctic sea ice and hence, on average, Antarctic sea ice may be thicker than previously thought."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #53 on: February 11, 2015, 10:51:40 PM »
This post is provided to bump this thread, and to provide a link to the final published version of the reference provided in Reply #47, indicating that we can expect Antarctic Amplification to start increasing in a decade or two:

David Ferreira, John Marshall, Cecilia M. Bitz, Susan Solomon, and Alan Plumb, 2015: "Antarctic Ocean and Sea Ice Response to Ozone Depletion: A Two-Time-Scale Problem". J. Climate, 28, 1206–1226, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1

Abstract: "The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and is found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the interannual signature of the southern annular mode (SAM) on sea surface temperature (SST), onto which the ozone hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift, inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow time-scale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea ice cover year-round. This two-time-scale behavior—rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming—is found in the two coupled models analyzed: one with an idealized geometry and the other with a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the time scale of the transition from cooling to warming and their uncertainties are described. Finally the implications of these results are discussed for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone hole on SST and sea ice extent."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #54 on: March 02, 2015, 11:42:06 AM »
I would like to point-out that most of the increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent is occurring in the Weddell Sea Sector, where the linked article points to research indicating that such sea ice can (and has in the past) reduced the Southern Hemispheric upwelling of the AMOC; which results in the re-direction of this warm ocean water to promote the melting of adjoining glacial ice (with probable serious consequences for the potential early collapse of the FRIS).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/13/antarctic-sea-ice_n_5978238.html?cps=gravity_2845_-3174118750263476582
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #55 on: March 02, 2015, 12:16:58 PM »
I would like to point-out that most of the increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent is occurring in the Weddell Sea Sector

See the shiny new (and still not quite fully automated) regional Antarctic sea ice area/extent plots at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/antarctic-sea-ice-graphs/

By way of example:

« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 12:36:40 PM by Jim Hunt »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #56 on: March 02, 2015, 04:13:41 PM »
While there are different ways to group and categorize Antarctic Sea Ice extent/area, the attached NSIDC daily sea ice extent map for March 1 2015 clearly shows the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, sea ice sectors below average (for this time of year) while the Weddell Sea Sector is clearly above average.
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Rubikscube

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #57 on: March 04, 2015, 03:09:54 AM »
Thank you Jim. A regional breakdown of Antarctic SIA/SIE is something I have been missing.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #58 on: March 04, 2015, 12:04:00 PM »
Thank you Jim. A regional breakdown of Antarctic SIA/SIE is something I have been missing.

My pleasure! Don't forget to thank Wipneus also, whose Raspberry Pi does the number crunching.
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Rubikscube

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #59 on: April 01, 2015, 02:21:51 AM »
The two attachments posted below display the average sea ice concentration at maximum for the period of 2002-2013 and furthermore how the record breaking maximum in 2014 compared to this average. Notice amongst other things how abnormally large the coastal polynyas were in 2014.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2015, 11:26:57 AM by Rubikscube »

Kuni

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #60 on: June 01, 2015, 09:48:26 PM »
Antarctic sea ice is not relevant because unlike the Arctic, which is 100% sea ice, the Antarctic ice pack is overwhelmingly non-sea ice.

The Antarctic ice pack should only be tracked in its entirety and the fact hammered home that the increase in Antarctic sea ice, unlike increased Arctic sea ice, is very very bad because it should not have fallen off the continent into the sea to begin with.

Paddy

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #61 on: June 03, 2015, 12:37:09 PM »
It's not that simple.  Most of it hasn't just "fallen off the continent"; instead it's been formed out out at sea.  Lots of theories as to why it's forming over a larger area and extent now, but I'm not sure what the leading theories are. 

However, this is happening at a time of net loss of ice mass on the Antarctic continent, according to GRACE data, so it's pretty clearly not that ice is increasing across Antarctica and the surrounding area overall.  Also, it's happening at a time of net loss of ice over the entire rest of the planet, so it's unsurprising that "sceptics" have a tendency to overemphasise its importance.

Chuck Yokota

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #62 on: June 03, 2015, 02:42:23 PM »
Also, the increase has been happening during a period of time when the water and air temperature have both been getting warmer, so it is clear that other factors, perhaps surface salinity or the way the ice spreads out, are the cause. Antarctic ice expanding is probably just as much a result of global warming as Arctic ice decreasing, but it just runs counter to our intuition.

plinius

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #63 on: June 03, 2015, 02:57:22 PM »
I always like to compare quantities. Total ice mass loss (shelf + land ice) in antarctica is easily >300 Gt per year. If you spread that out in a 1m thick layer, you get about 0.3 Mio square kilometers. If you use the typical turnover time of ~ 6 years for the most concerned regions of the sea ice increase (i.e. Weddel/Ross), you would estimate a sea ice area increase of ~2 Mio sqkm alone from that source. So no, I cannot see what would run counter to my intuition. It is, if I do not get other information, just a continent shedding its ice cap...

Chuck Yokota

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #64 on: June 03, 2015, 10:33:20 PM »
plinius- The non-landfast sea ice nearly all melts every summer and refreezes every winter. There is no real carryover from year to year. Also, the sea ice is in the shape of flat ice floes, icebergs calved from glaciers are very thick and irregular.

Michael Hauber

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #65 on: June 04, 2015, 05:11:46 AM »
Also, the increase has been happening during a period of time when the water and air temperature have both been getting warmer,

Are you sure?  GISS trends suggest that the ocean around Antarctica has been getting cooler since 1980, which is the period we've measured the increase in Antarctic sea ice.  Trends for land based stations are positive, but amongst the weakest for the entire globe (look at the zonal mean by latitude down the bottom after making a map)

It seems likely that the tightening and intensification of the polar vortex over Antarctica is a significant factor.   First this speeds up the current around Antarctica.  Speeding up these currents will result in more water moving past the bottom of the ice sheets, so more melting from below, even if the water is not warming up.  At the same time the insulation of Antarctica from the rest of the globe is increased, so Antarctica cools down relative to the rest of the world.  As Antarctica has still warmed since 1980 this effect may only be weak enough to offset part of this warming.   Thirdly the current flings ice and cold water north faster, so the area of ice and coldest surface waters expands.  Fourthly as this water meets against currents in the adjacent oceans this drives intensified downwelling in the Antarctic Convergence zone.  This intensified downwelling then increases the transport of heat into the deeper parts of the southern ocean.

The intensification of the Antarctic vortex has been blamed largely on the Ozone hole, although I think I've seen at least one or two speculations that AGW may also contribute.  There may also be a role for natural variability.  It is interesting to note that while the warming trends from 1980 to 2012 around Antarctica are weak or non-existent, the trends from early dates to now are much stronger, so there may be a multi-decade variation relating to something like AMO or PDO.  I've seen hints that there may have been much more Antarctic sea ice prior to the current satellite record since 1980, with the Nimubs satellite revealing higher sea ice in 1964, and whaling records for earlier years also hinting at an ice edge further north.
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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #66 on: June 04, 2015, 05:41:50 AM »
Regarding my comments above in #40 & #51 around the recovered Nimbus missions, I'll quote the cires article in #40 to highlight what I personally think is the thing to look for within a couple of years. A record low.
Quote
“And the Antarctic blew us away,” he said. In 1964, sea ice extent in the Antarctic was the largest ever recorded, according to Nimbus image analysis. Two years later, there was a record low for sea ice in the Antarctic, and in 1969 Nimbus imagery, sea ice appears to have reached its maximum extent earliest on record.


Yuha

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #67 on: June 04, 2015, 11:48:58 AM »
NSIDC monthly Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis for May has a section on Antarctic sea ice too.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/06/may-be-declining/

Quote
Despite the record sea ice extent, air temperatures at the 925 millibar level (about 3,000 feet above the surface) remained generally above average for most of the continent and coastal areas of the surrounding ocean. Air temperatures were as much as 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average over the West Antarctic ice sheet and central Ross Sea. The region of high ice extent near the northeastern Ross Sea had near-average air temperatures in the vicinity of the ice edge. Cooler than average temperatures were observed near the ice edge in the northeastern Weddell Sea (2 degrees Celsius, or 4 degrees Fahrenheit, below average) and Davis Sea (4 degrees Celsius, or 7 degrees Fahrenheit, below average).

plinius

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #68 on: June 04, 2015, 01:13:53 PM »
plinius- The non-landfast sea ice nearly all melts every summer and refreezes every winter. There is no real carryover from year to year. Also, the sea ice is in the shape of flat ice floes, icebergs calved from glaciers are very thick and irregular.

Well, shape does not matter. You melt the glaciers/icebergs, contribute to the cold, sweet surface layer that refreezes into your favourite sea ice shape. Second, I haven't heard that nearly all antarctic sea ice melts out nowadays, 2.5 Mio sqkm remains through summer, mostly in the Weddel/Ross seas, where the water cycle is longest. Certainly not saying that this is the only reason, but it will contribute and also push the ice edge out.

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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #70 on: July 27, 2015, 01:29:39 PM »
Seems like we'll all have a quiet summer ? No constant denier whine about  Antarctic Sea ice levels?

I was wondering if the nino would mess with storm tracks around Antarctica this southern winter and it appears they are ( hence the Ozzy snow)?

The nasty side arrives over the summer in Antarctica. We know that La Nina slows losses from Thwaites/P.I.G. due to wind forcings so will Nino bring the opposite? The warm water is already in place so a forcing that keeps throwing it at the ice cliffs is not good.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #71 on: July 27, 2015, 07:00:28 PM »
Seems like we'll all have a quiet summer ? No constant denier whine about  Antarctic Sea ice levels?

No such luck! I felt compelled to inform a whining denier at The Telegraph about the Antarctic sea ice "kink"  only yesterday:

https://disqus.com/home/discussion/telegraphuk/how_arctic_ice_has_made_fools_of_all_those_poor_warmists/#comment-2158010638

Of course up above that Booker was talking ballcocks about the Arctic also.
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wehappyfew

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #72 on: July 28, 2015, 02:16:57 AM »
It looks like Austral summer will be exciting around the edge of the sea ice, maybe due to El Nino warmth spreading south?



Record low ice extent for Antarctica?

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« Reply #73 on: July 28, 2015, 09:45:36 AM »
Chris Mooney on Hansen et al and its implications for growing Antarctic sea ice extent:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/27/climate-change-skeptics-may-be-about-to-lose-one-of-their-favorite-arguments/?postshare=1821438025395214

"There’s no doubt that growing Antarctic sea ice is a mystery in the climate system — and an anomalous, seemingly contrary indicator. However, if a controversial and much-discussed new paper from famed former NASA scientist James Hansen and 16 colleagues is correct, then actually it could be a troubling climate warning sign. (Indeed, other scientists have reached similar conclusions.)

According to Hansen’s thinking, expanding Antarctic sea ice is precisely what you would expect to see if the Antarctic continent itself is losing a lot of ice mass from its vast ice sheet, adding to sea level rise.

The thinking goes like this: As ice shelves melt, and more inland ice slides towards the sea, a gigantic volume of cold, fresh water enters the ocean. This freshwater pulse, the researchers continue, promotes ocean “stratification,” in which a cold surface layer lies atop a subsurface warmer layer. The cold surface layer promotes more sea ice growth atop open water, while the warm lower layer sneaks beneath that ice and continues to melt submerged ice shelves, which plunge deep into the water at the fringes of the continent.

The fundamental physical reason for the expansion of sea ice in this scenario is that cold, fresh water is less dense than warmer, salty water. Or as the National Snow and Ice Data Center explains:

As deep ocean temperatures around Antarctic rise, they increase ice shelf melt, according to a study led by Richard Bintanja. This meltwater is creating a cool layer near the surface of the ocean that promotes sea ice production. In addition, the meltwater is fresh, or much less salty and dense than surrounding saline ocean layers. So fresher meltwater floats upward, mixing with the cold surface layer, lowering its density. As this fresh layer expands, it forms a stable puddle on top of the ocean that makes it easier to produce and retain sea ice.

In this sense, expanding Antarctic sea ice might be anything but good news.

Indeed, in the troubling scenario outlined by Hansen and his colleagues, it’s part of a series of feedbacks that lead to rapid sea level rise. “Amplifying feedbacks, including slowdown of [the Southern ocean’s overturning circulation] and cooling of the near-Antarctic ocean surface with increasing sea ice, may spur nonlinear growth of Antarctic ice sheet mass loss,” write Hansen and his colleagues.

“Effects of freshwater injection and resulting ocean stratification are occurring sooner in the real world than in our model,” they add.

Reached by phone, Hansen added that one reason he thinks the model he is using is is right — and other models are not — is that it captures Antarctic sea ice expansion. “All the other models have sea ice disappearing as the planet get warmer,” he says. He also thinks the Antarctic ice expansion trend will continue, along with ice sheet melt.

“It will be clearer, give us a few more years,” he says...

It’s also worth noting that other explanations for the expansion of Antarctic sea ice have been offered that do not turn on meltwater and ocean freshening. Overall, it’s not clear that scientists yet fully understand what’s going on in this extremely remote part of the climate system.

Nonetheless, this serves to point out the danger of seizing on a mysterious anomaly in the climate system — like expanding Antarctic sea ice — and interpreting it to score political points. For what may seem like good news for the climate — and bad news for climate “alarmists,” as skeptics put it — could be the utter opposite."