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What will be the PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014?

More than 7000 km3
1 (2%)
Between 6750 and 7000 km3
0 (0%)
Between 6500 and 6750 km3
0 (0%)
Between 6250 and 6500 km3
2 (4.1%)
Between 6000 and 6250 km3
3 (6.1%)
Between 5750 and 6000 km3
1 (2%)
Between 5500 and 5750 km3
0 (0%)
Between 5250 and 5500 km3
7 (14.3%)
Between 5000 and 5250 km3
11 (22.4%)
Between 4750 and 5000 km3
3 (6.1%)
Between 4500 and 4750 km3
4 (8.2%)
Between 4250 and 4500 km3
5 (10.2%)
Between 4000 and 4250 km3
7 (14.3%)
Between 3750 and 4000 km3
2 (4.1%)
Between 3500 and 3750 km3
2 (4.1%)
Between 3250 and 3500 km3
0 (0%)
Between 3000 and 3250 km3
1 (2%)
Between 2750 and 3000 km3
0 (0%)
Between 2500 and 2750 km3
0 (0%)
Between 2250 and 2500 km3
0 (0%)
Between 2000 and 2250 km3
0 (0%)
Less than 2000 km3
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 49

Voting closed: July 18, 2014, 11:22:02 AM

Author Topic: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll  (Read 4090 times)

slow wing

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This poll will run for 10 days. You can change your vote.

PIOMAS volume minima for previous years:
Year --- Min (km3)
1979 16900
1980 16100
1981 12600
1982 13400
1983 15100
1984 14500
1985 14500
1986 15900
1987 15200
1988 14900
1989 14600
1990 13700
1991 13500
1992 14900
1993 12200
1994 13600
1995 11200
1996 13700
1997 13200
1998 11500
1999 10900
2000 11000
2001 12200
2002 10800
2003 10200
2004  9900
2005  9200
2006  9000
2007  6500
2008  7100
2009  6800
2010  4600
2011  4300
2012  3700
2013  5400



Daily volume plots by year...

(Plot and link courtesy of Wipneus.)

See this thread and post for the thickness graphs of June 2013 and 2014 and the difference (also supplied by Wipneus).

This thread has the equivalent poll for last month: June 2014.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2014, 11:29:24 AM by slow wing »

Neven

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2014, 11:46:03 AM »
Thanks for continuing the poll, slow wing.  :)

Given the last PIOMAS update I'm guessing the minimum will come below that of 2013, but not by much: Between 5000 and 5250 km3.
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DavidR

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2014, 12:28:24 PM »
I  have come up a couple from last  poll to  3.0- 3.25 because of the amount of  thick ice at the start of the season. This won't lose as much thickness as the thinner ice so I  suspect the average at the end of season will be closer to 2012 than I  expected.
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johnm33

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2014, 02:00:28 PM »
I'm going with 3.6, I suspect that although current volume is high there's a lot of snow included in the numbers, so there's less actual mass to melt. Low confidence though.

jdallen

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2014, 05:56:33 PM »
I'm still a bit more pessimistic than you are, Neven; 4500-4750; and I'm suspicious of the PIOMAS numbers....
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OSweetMrMath

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2014, 06:19:15 PM »
My prediction last month was 5000 for the monthly average. But that was predicting the June average to be 17400. The actual average for June was 17700. This raises my prediction for the monthly average for September to 5400. The daily minimum is around 100 less than the monthly value, so my prediction is 5250-5500, increased from 4750-5000 last month.

Note that my 95% confidence interval is 4100-6700, so the point estimate above has low reliability.

cats

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2014, 06:45:56 PM »
Once again sticking with numbers from last month 5250-5500.  Still just a guess :-)

slow wing

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2014, 04:24:30 AM »
About a day to go in the poll.


I went with "Between 5250 and 5500 km3" - the same bin as the 2013 result.

That is just from eye-balling the curves in Wipneus' plot of the OP and noting that the June volume was several hundred km^3 higher than 2013 but that 2013 appeared as a poor melt year from here on in when compared to other recent years.


So it appears that we will end close to the 2013 minimum value of 5400 km^3.


My central value and 1-sigma uncertainty for minimum volume is (5400 +/- 800) km^3.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2014, 11:09:27 PM »
5000 to 5250 - by looking at behaviour of anomalies in recent years.

slow wing

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2014, 04:00:18 AM »
Polling has closed now.


Forty-nine people voted and the median bin chosen for this month's poll, taken in July 2014, was "between 5000 and 5250 km^3".


That is three bins and 750 km^3 higher than the median bin for the poll for the month before, June 2014.

slow wing

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Re: PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2014: July poll
« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2014, 02:29:49 AM »
The August poll is now out.