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gfwellman

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #100 on: April 28, 2013, 10:06:11 PM »
It's not an olive tint.  It's a grey tint that happens to make the yellow temp areas olive, orange temps darker orange, light green temp dark green, etc.

I like it BTW.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #101 on: April 28, 2013, 10:32:23 PM »
It's not an olive tint.  It's a grey tint that happens to make the yellow temp areas olive, orange temps darker orange, light green temp dark green, etc.

I like it BTW.

Gotcha.  I guess great minds, etc.  So the only real alteration I'd then suggest is with the color scale, putting both shades (over water, over land) on the scale next to each other.

It's the best single current-arctic-conditions map I've seen.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #102 on: April 29, 2013, 12:45:30 PM »
Two extremes from last year, and latest data as simple animation. Quite some range during a year, colors and shades need a bit more love to achieve a good balance, I'll probably recalculate the pallete by using a more human colorspace like hsl. Also font size sizes and dpi settings are probably misaligned.

What I like is one can easily distinguish good from bad ice weather, as long as the ice is in the green/blue region, everything is fine, yellow and red-dish colors mean harm.

Going interactive with overlays and blending is sure an option, however hundreds of images must be generated on server side every day (cost | DungeonMaster) or the browser has to download the data and render all of them on demand (difficult, haven't found a contour line algo so far).

Nice tip to show the shades in the colorbar, thanks.

It's a shame GFS doesn't project extent. On the other had it has a (very) simple thickness model, which looks pretty, but somewhat different from PIOMAS, though. I think, I'll reach out to Chris & Crandles, it should be possible to get something running with PIOMAS from last month and monthly averages, which doesn't include rocket science.


ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #103 on: April 30, 2013, 09:09:30 PM »
Very good.

Espen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #104 on: April 30, 2013, 11:26:33 PM »
Bremen map today;

Got to be careful! But I think we are in for some heavy melting soon, in many places!
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
Have a ice day!

Timothy Astin

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #105 on: May 01, 2013, 12:44:04 AM »
MODIS over the last few days shows significant rapid loss of snow cover in western Russia and in parts of Siberia. Western North America remains above average snow cover and below average temperatures. Overall, the switch seems to be taking place right now from above average winter, to below average summer, snow cover in the N. Hemisphere.
In the last three years the development of a negative anomaly in snow cover from early May onwards has been a significant feature. The resulting change in albedo is both symptom and cause of amplification in arctic warming. I suggest that the speed and intensity of development of this expected negative anomaly in snow cover will be an important pointer to the progress of the sea-ice melt this season.  Lets see how it develops in the next few days.

crandles

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #106 on: May 01, 2013, 01:01:10 AM »
MODIS over the last few days shows significant rapid loss of snow cover in western Russia and in parts of Siberia. Western North America remains above average snow cover and below average temperatures. Overall, the switch seems to be taking place right now from above average winter, to below average summer, snow cover in the N. Hemisphere.
In the last three years the development of a negative anomaly in snow cover from early May onwards has been a significant feature. The resulting change in albedo is both symptom and cause of amplification in arctic warming. I suggest that the speed and intensity of development of this expected negative anomaly in snow cover will be an important pointer to the progress of the sea-ice melt this season.  Lets see how it develops in the next few days.

>significant rapid loss
Maybe but given how much positive cover there was recently:

perhaps it is just return towards normal when previous years are usually negative by now.

Even latest image remains looking more positive than negative:

icebgone

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #107 on: May 01, 2013, 05:00:17 AM »
The AMSR2 is showing what looks like a significant amount of snow melt and ponding in Hudson Bay and across the Central Arctic.  I would be very interested in what the ice underneath all that snow is really like.  Perhaps we will find out in a few days if this push of warm air is followed shortly by another warm pulse after the upcoming cool down in North America.

SATire

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #108 on: May 02, 2013, 04:44:32 PM »
It looks like Siberia is getting quite warm - above zero up to Laptev sea allready
(today 6 GMT at http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif ). The Siberian snow is on fast leave and Laptev sea ice may start to melt in now, too.

Next to Barents and Baffin that would be the 3rd front in Siberia threatening the Basin.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #109 on: May 03, 2013, 03:55:23 AM »
I think, I'm done with colors and palettes. Having seen dozens nuances of these maps, I can already tell the month from the thumbnail. See below every 2nd month in 2012 and every 2nd day starting with today. Do you see >20°C in London?




Now this stuff needs a home. I'll post the address...

sofouuk

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #110 on: May 03, 2013, 05:50:24 AM »
i think it's superb (tho, do you still need the solid white line for the ice edge?  :P)

Artful Dodger

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #111 on: May 03, 2013, 07:22:00 AM »
I think, I'm done with colors and palettes.
Hi arcticio,

Nice results! I particularly appreciate the consistent color palette across the calendar year. I find it to be quite irksome when certain sites shift their temperature palette over the seasons. It makes animations worthless.

Cool, good job! 8)
Cheers!
Lodger


Timothy Astin

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #113 on: May 03, 2013, 12:26:59 PM »
Watching with interest ... and still with lots to learn about editing hyperlinks .. sorry.

SATire

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #114 on: May 04, 2013, 02:56:18 PM »
Last snow-save "green area" (below zero °C) in Eurasia is now only at Bering and the Kara region (link same as in 2nd May post). Looks like all really cold places (below -10°C) are all left on the american side - so melting above 70° will probably start from right to left (viewed from GBritain) this year.

deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #115 on: May 04, 2013, 06:08:19 PM »
Wow, 140,000 km^2 plunge in CT area May 3rd. Meanwhile, IARC-JAXA continues to somewhat defy this continual drop in area and I wonder why?

SATire

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #116 on: May 04, 2013, 07:26:31 PM »
Wow, 140,000 km^2 plunge in CT area May 3rd. Meanwhile, IARC-JAXA continues to somewhat defy this continual drop in area and I wonder why?

E.g. the big area loss in Hudson bay the last days is not counted as lower extent - those are still leads. Same in Laptev sea and around Franz-Joseph-islands. 

dingojoe

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #117 on: May 06, 2013, 12:26:07 AM »
Wow, 140,000 km^2 plunge in CT area May 3rd. Meanwhile, IARC-JAXA continues to somewhat defy this continual drop in area and I wonder why?

E.g. the big area loss in Hudson bay the last days is not counted as lower extent - those are still leads. Same in Laptev sea and around Franz-Joseph-islands.

So, when does the opening in the Laptev go from being a lead to being counted as melt?

James Lovejoy

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #118 on: May 06, 2013, 04:13:14 AM »
I'm wondering what resources the people in this forum are using to aid in medium term arctic ice.

For myself I'm using the National Weather Service (US) 8 to 14 day forecasts to get an idea of the Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea weather, and Accuweather dot com website with the monthly option after I've chose a 'city'.

If I had even elementary skill as an amateur meterologist, I might be able to add some resources.

Will anyone add some other resouces?

SATire

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #119 on: May 06, 2013, 10:43:51 AM »
So, when does the opening in the Laptev go from being a lead to being counted as melt?
"The sea-ice extent is calculated as the areal sum of sea ice covering the ocean where sea-ice concentration (SIC) exceeds a threshold (15% for AMSR-E)"
source: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

So everything above 15% sea ice coverage is counted 100% as extent - while in area only that measured percentage is counted.

If you look at a picture like http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
everything coloured is counted as extent while area is computed as the sum of area times sea ice concentration (%/100)

Nightvid Cole

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #120 on: May 07, 2013, 08:18:37 PM »
It was Hans Verbeek who linked in a blog thread recently to  http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=122&ui_set=2]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/[url]  and reminded me of the significance of the changing seasonal snow cover pattern much debated by forum members. There you can see the recent pattern of intensifying May to October snow cover deficits.

So how is development? The Russian side has now moved into a clear snow cover deficit [url]http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=122&ui_set=2]  and reminded me of the significance of the changing seasonal snow cover pattern much debated by forum members. There you can see the recent pattern of intensifying May to October snow cover deficits.

So how is development? The Russian side has now moved into a clear snow cover deficit [url]http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=122&ui_set=2]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/[url]  and reminded me of the significance of the changing seasonal snow cover pattern much debated by forum members. There you can see the recent pattern of intensifying May to October snow cover deficits.

So how is development? The Russian side has now moved into a clear snow cover deficit [url]http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=122&ui_set=2

In North America, the snow melt is shifting northwards rapidly, while still maintaining a significant excess anomaly of snow cover.

I agree with Crandles (significant rapid loss - "maybe ...") that this year's seasonal message from snow melt is not yet clear. But it has tipped a little towards becoming a signal favouring enhanced sea ice melting to come.

Watching with interest ...

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=4

First positive April anomaly since 2003 and largest positive April anomaly since 1996.

That said, the anomaly now appears to be negative, by pixel-counting  http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=126&ui_set=2   (area graph on ASIB graphs page has 2 - 3 day lag so isn't yet showing the anomaly dropping below zero.) and given the 'normal' temps in North America now and eastern Siberia's forecast 'heat wave' over the next 10 days, looking at anomaly falling off a cliff very soon, further confirming the pattern of recent years as a climate shift and not just random variation (weather).

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #121 on: May 07, 2013, 10:03:44 PM »
High pressure over the Siberian coast has caused net ice movement away from the coast, resulting in coastal flaw lead formation off the region of fast ice, which is acting like a de-facto land mass.

AMSR2 Bremen,
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2013/may/asi-AMSR2-n6250-20130506-v5_visual.png

ASCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2013126.sir.gif

Temperatures for the next week across this region are around zero degC (GFS 2m temperature). Whatever polynias or leads form will not freeze to any great extent.

We're now just one month away from the early June CT Area anomaly crash. Around day 160 in this graphic.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8125/8708311036_39fa2d4dc2_o.jpg

I didn't let myself run with the cracking since February, but I think this looks more promising. Things are looking really good for a large crash of area in June, it's possible that this could even be early this year.

I think the waiting could be over.

Whoo Hoooo!  8)

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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #123 on: May 07, 2013, 10:15:46 PM »
I'm starting to bounce around with excitement.  ;D

The anticipation is killing me, I'm burying myself in work, and have started watching Seasons 1 and 2 of Game of Thrones, also The Thick Of It (UK political satire). Not really in the mood to blog right now, but have some posts to do before it all kicks off. Must discipline myself.

Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #124 on: May 07, 2013, 10:33:17 PM »
But you're right, Chris. The action is and will be on the Siberian side first. For instance, aside from the retreat, the ice near the coast in the Laptev Sea is much more fragmented than last year:

2012:



2013:

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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #125 on: May 07, 2013, 10:37:27 PM »
Perhaps I should explain myself better.

Bremen AMSR variants...

2008
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2008/may/asi-n6250-20080506-v5_visual.png

2009
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2009/may/asi-n6250-20090506-v5_visual.png

2010
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2010/may/asi-n6250-20100506-v5_visual.png

2011
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2011/may/asi-SSMIS17-n6250-20110506-v5_visual.png

2012
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2012/may/asi-SSMIS-n6250-20120506-v5_visual.png

2013
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2013/may/asi-AMSR2-n6250-20130506-v5_visual.png

The latest AMSR2 data (2013) may be picking up more flaws than the previous systems, but I really don't think the string of polynias from Svalbard to the Kara would have been missed in previous years.

And PIPS/HYCOM suggests to me that the area is primed to go.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013050618_2013050700_035_arcticictn.001.gif
Which was the position in March for PIOMAS, no previous year has such thin ice in the Atlantic sector. Even if ice melts out there it'll probably be augmented by ice from the East Siberian coast, due to net drift and the early summer Arctic dipole. Which means more rapid opening of the Siberian seas.

I know that previous years show a recovery after a new record. But this year there has been no winter recovery. Using the rules of the old game just doesn't work when a new game is being played.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #126 on: May 07, 2013, 10:39:05 PM »
Just seen your reply Neven, I'd not got round to comparing MODIS but it backs up what I've said above.

Time to wind down for bed.

Timothy Astin

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #127 on: May 07, 2013, 11:22:21 PM »
First positive April anomaly since 2003 and largest positive April anomaly since 1996.

That said, the anomaly now appears to be negative, by pixel-counting  (area graph on ASIB graphs page has 2 - 3 day lag so isn't yet showing the anomaly dropping below zero.) and given the 'normal' temps in North America now and eastern Siberia's forecast 'heat wave' over the next 10 days, looking at anomaly falling off a cliff very soon, further confirming the pattern of recent years as a climate shift and not just random variation (weather).

Yes, the North American 'excess' snow has dropped a lot in the last few days, and a significant snow deficit has developed on the Russian side.

As Nightvid Cole says, this "snow anomaly test" is now confirming a climate-shift signal, and is pointing to a continuing reduction in summer sea ice cover.

Now trying to decide on the next little test ...




Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #128 on: May 08, 2013, 12:24:27 AM »
Chris, don't forget the sea ice concentration maps on the ASIG for a quick a look (and it saves you the time of posting all those links).
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Peter Ellis

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #129 on: May 08, 2013, 01:12:16 AM »
Chris, Hycom thinks the ice in Kara / Barentsz and northwards towards the Pole is at least half a metre thicker this year than last...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012050618_2012050700_035_arcticictn.001.gif

Laptev coastal leads are looking weaker, but I for one will be seriously surprised if the Atlantic side collapses even more this year than last.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #130 on: May 08, 2013, 06:56:24 AM »
Peter,

Here's the two,

2013
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013050618_2013050700_035_arcticictn.001.gif

2012
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012050618_2012050700_035_arcticictn.001.gif

You are correct, but there really isn't much in it when you flick between them. Last year there was much less ice around the islands parallel to the Svalbard/Franz Josef string of islands. But last year there was an intrusion of MYI into the eastern seas of the Siberian coast which caused the region of low concentration by August.

Week 20 DAM

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2012/aug/asi-SSMIS-n6250-20120801-v5_visual.png

Yet in the Atlantic sector the ice edge hadn't receded as much as the thin ice earlier in the year might have suggested.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012070618_2012070700_035_arcticictn.001.gif
Which is because of the net ice movement into the Atlantic sector and the drop off of warm Atlantic water into the deeps poleward of the Svalbard/Franz Josef island string.

I'm betting that this year we won't see the low concentration persistence in the eastern Siberian region because there is no MYI ice there this year.
DAM 2013 Week 13

The polynias across the Atlantic sector will allow surface warming (above the warm Atlantic layer, which in that region has sunk into the deeps). So we'll see equally aggressive melt in the Atlantic sector, with more aggressive melt in the eastern Siberian sector.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #131 on: May 08, 2013, 09:01:47 PM »
Looking at the various maps posted and listening to the discussion it seems ironic that the transport of ice into the Beaufort and the fractures in February as evidence of this transport due to the strong Beaufort gyre could cause this area of ice to hold up better early in the melt season. Is there any chance that we could see a rebound in the Beaufort at the end of the melt season?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #132 on: May 08, 2013, 09:11:18 PM »
Is there any chance that we could see a rebound in the Beaufort at the end of the melt season?
I guess you are not questioning that after the end of the melt season it will start to freeze in the Beaufort sea, are you? ;-)
After we have seen last week, that the Arctic Basin will start melting from the Siberian side early this year, we can now see, that Alaska also is going to get quite warm now. Early start of melt in the Beaufort will result in open waters allready in June, when the sun is high - in July the multi years ice in Beaufort sea will melt, too.
I think the only chance for "rebound" in the Beaufort could be, that the last piece of myi surviving September will move from Ellesmere into Beaufort  - for the very last time.   

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #133 on: May 08, 2013, 10:09:12 PM »
Looking at the various maps posted and listening to the discussion it seems ironic that the transport of ice into the Beaufort and the fractures in February as evidence of this transport due to the strong Beaufort gyre could cause this area of ice to hold up better early in the melt season. Is there any chance that we could see a rebound in the Beaufort at the end of the melt season?

Personally I think that as soon as temps go up and the Sun starts to shine there for real, things could go fast. I have a hunch (who doesn't) that a lot will depend on melt ponds. That seemed to be a very big factor last year in the Beaufort.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #134 on: May 09, 2013, 06:32:54 AM »
The situation in Siberia is insane.  in a small part the bare ground is almost to the arctic ocean coast.

The 2nd image is today's anomaly.  If it wasn't for the absurdly rare snow in China right now at the ceiling of the Earth the departure would be way negative.  But that doesn't matter the snow in china is irrelevant. 

The 3rd image is the percentage of coverage anomaly for this date.  anywhere white is 0-10 percent while the darkest blue is 91-100 percent.  A big part of the negative departure is in the 91-100 percent range.  On top of that average climo doesn't bring bare ground to as close as it is now to the arctic coast until June 1st.  It's May 8th.  WTF?

Lastly the albedo chart show's why this is a very bad things for the cryosphere.  Instead of albedo of .55 to .75 until June 1st it will .15 to .25







On top of that, as of 12z model runs, they are still depicting a prolonged torch that expands to take over at least 50 percent of Siberia with above 0c 850s all the way into the ice sheet. 


Expect more snow around the bare ground to melt pretty quick starting in a few days.


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #135 on: May 09, 2013, 10:32:43 AM »
We shouldn't forget how unreliable hycom is.


Anyways after getting a chance to take a detailed look at the 00z GFS and EURO.  They both agree that major heat is going to pool over Central/Eastern Siberia.

Not that it is not already unseasonably warm there.  It is. 

Now really starting at the end of day 2 and taking off widespread on day 3.  A ridge of high pressure is going to form, while an SLP sits over the Eastern kara region the next 3 days becoming decently strong pulling the initial surge of warmth North into the Laptev Sea with it.

Then with the aid of the high pressure.  good weather with lots of Sun will sit right over the bare ground area but also melt more snow.  Without snow there to lower albedo Temps in the 15-25C range will be transported NNW/NW right into the Laptev Sea.  850mb temps over the Southern 1/2 of the Laptev from day 3 to 10 on the GFS are 10-16C above normal. 

The persistent Southerly flow may open up the current open water spots even further allowing a larger area for solar insolation to go to work on the ice and snow cover on it.

Right now it's pretty warm.  Outside the edges of the arctic ocean and the kara region snow should continue to rapidly melt.


Here is the GFS H5/Surface from hour 48-168: 24hr increments



Here is the GFS 850mb temps hours 36-180:  24hr increments



The ice is already torn up there and the open water is the most I found this early on satelitte record.



And the winds will be favorable for ice compaction towards the main ice pack.

A large area of water for May 14th-16th could open up that we haven't seen before.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #136 on: May 09, 2013, 05:12:51 PM »
Is there any chance that we could see a rebound in the Beaufort at the end of the melt season?
I guess you are not questioning that after the end of the melt season it will start to freeze in the Beaufort sea, are you? ;-)

But Lawrence clearly demonstrates the ice has recovered to levels not seen since the 1980's! ;-)

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/15/lawrence-solomon-arctic-sea-ice-back-to-1989-levels-now-exceeds-previous-decade/

Months ago, I actually proposed a new metric (partially in jest) to track the relationship between the annual min and max of SIE, SIA and Piomass. This measure (BICOT) would look at the trend of the spread between the min and max for each year.

For example, this graph shows the annual spread between min/max for SIE. While there is annual variability, we see a trend as the spread between min/max is growing. This is obviously due to an accelerating melt in the summer as we rapidly approach an ice free summer arctic. The winter rebound results in SIE maximums declining less rapidly and, thus,  the spread is growing. There will be a tipping point which should occur as SIE minimums bottom out and SIE maximum drops accelerate as we move to a perennially ice free arctic.

I am not sure what this measure might actually track but it may indicate a phase state change or be totally useless.

I did work hard to come up with the measurement name {the in jest part ;-) }. BICOT stands for

"Bifurcated Intra-annual Cryosphere Oscillation Trend" or "Baby It's Cold Out There"
« Last Edit: May 10, 2013, 12:08:30 AM by Shared Humanity »

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #137 on: May 09, 2013, 06:27:32 PM »
Frivolousz,

NCEP/NCAR shows that current (7/5/13) temperatures are mainly 3 to 5degC warmer than average (1981 to 2010 climatology) over the Siberian sector of the Arctic. For the time of year it's excellent melting weather.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #138 on: May 09, 2013, 09:10:32 PM »
Shared Humanity,

from your last post I understand, that with "rebound" you point to the rate at which sea ice gets covered with ice in winter, which increases when minimum area decreases. I totally agree with that observation and it is very natural. I would disagree to call this effect rebound - I would call it rebound only if  booth the red line and the blue line in your graph would turn upwards.

The difference between March extent and September extent will get maximal just after September extent hits zero - that is simple to understand. What will be different after that point is, that the sea ice will have lost its ability to cool the northern hemisphere. All old ice will be molten after that date and the only effect of sea ice will be to provide some damping to the system: Providing some latent heat from summer to release it in winter and to provide some cooling in the summer stored from winter. But averaged over the year cooling/heating by sea ice latent heat will be zero after we reached ice-free Arctis in September. That will change a lot, because the additional heat, still increasing every year with increasing CO2 content in atmosphere, will have to go some where else. Most probably to the ocean and a bit to water vapour in the atmosphere.

SATire

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #139 on: May 09, 2013, 09:17:49 PM »
NCEP/NCAR shows that current (7/5/13) temperatures are mainly 3 to 5degC warmer than average (1981 to 2010 climatology) over the Siberian sector of the Arctic. For the time of year it's excellent melting weather.
Chris, it is like this allready since 2nd May (see above) and now Alaska seems to join Siberia. Therefore, I agree that melting will be early this year. It will melt from right to left (viewed from GB) and then it will melt all the MYI in Beaufort...

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #140 on: May 09, 2013, 10:01:33 PM »
Friv


If you're even close on the albedo numbers we're in for one hell of a ride. You're looking at a >300% increase in insolation between now and June 1st - are these numbers even possible?


Terry

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #141 on: May 10, 2013, 12:05:31 AM »
SATire.....actually, my original question was whether we might see some of the MYI remaining in the Beaufort when we reach the annual minimum in September. This is what I meant by rebound in minimum SIE in the Beaufort. I realize I did not write this very clearly.

The second comment where I pointed out Lawrence's stupid suggestion that sea ice had rebounded followed by this ";-)" was to let you know that I got your joke.  :D

The simple retort to Lawrence's suggestion is that water freezes when it gets cold. For the time being, the Arctic temperatures drop sufficiently to cause water to freeze. My half in jest suggestion of a new measure, BICOT, is to capture this rather obvious fact and then poke fun at those who suggest a winter freeze is in any way a rebound. In fact, an increasing spread between min and max is evidence of a rapidly deteriorating arctic. If you go back to the posted graph from NSIDC, in the first ten years (the 1980's) the spread increases very little, if at all. This spread begins to grow at a fairly healthy clip after the 1980's. As new minimums are reached, it will continue to do so. When we reach a summer ice free arctic, the increase in spread will slow or stop and then (perhaps?) reverse and begin to shrink as the winter max shrinking begins to close this spread.

BICOT (Baby it's cold out there!) was a humorous jab at any purported scientist who points to the winter freeze as evidence of a rebound. I have a mental image of some real climate scientist on a lonely Greenland research post coming into his station and rubbing his hands in the middle of the dark arctic winter and saying "Baby, it's cold out there!" to his fellow scientist. Once I decided that BICOT was the name of the new measure, I spent a lot of time trying to find some real scientific terms that could be used to explain BICOT.

After a lot of trials, I came up with "Bifurcated Intra-annual Cryosphere Oscillation Trend". I am actually quite proud of this one.  ;)

"Bifurcated" captures the fact that the links between min and max SIE (a stable historic spread) have been severed due to AGW.

"Intra-annual" explains that the measure tracks the spread between min and max for each year.

"Cryosphere" is self explanatory.

"Oscillation" is the natural movement between min and max that occurs annually.

The "Trend" is the change in this spread between min and max over time.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2013, 12:54:31 AM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #142 on: May 10, 2013, 12:20:51 AM »
What is interesting to me is , after reaching a summer ice free Arctic, will the SIE maximums drop in an accelerating fashion and begin to reduce the spread between a fixed minimum (summer ice free) and a declining maximum or will the spread actually stabilize for a while as SIE maximums continue to reach or nearly reach their current levels. This stabilized spread between min and max might be a tenuous equilibrium in the state of the Cryosphere until AGW begins to really punch the hell out of the Arctic winter and we see a transition towards a perennially ice free arctic.

I still think the reductions in SIE maximum will be slow and a temporarily stable Cryosphere, captured by the min/max spread, will appear. After all....BICOT! "Baby it's cold out there!"
« Last Edit: May 10, 2013, 05:20:32 AM by Shared Humanity »

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #143 on: May 10, 2013, 08:53:13 AM »
NCEP/NCAR shows that current (7/5/13) temperatures are mainly 3 to 5degC warmer than average (1981 to 2010 climatology) over the Siberian sector of the Arctic. For the time of year it's excellent melting weather.
Chris, it is like this allready since 2nd May (see above) and now Alaska seems to join Siberia. Therefore, I agree that melting will be early this year. It will melt from right to left (viewed from GB) and then it will melt all the MYI in Beaufort...

Not an unreasonable suggestion, seems quite likely.

I've been watching the warming but couldn't recall when it started. Anomalies have been high for a while, but it's recently that temperatures have tipped to around zero degC.

SATire

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #144 on: May 10, 2013, 07:14:08 PM »
BICOT.

After a lot of trials, I came up with "Bifurcated Intra-annual Cryosphere Oscillation Trend". I am actually quite proud of this one.  ;)
Great definition, Shared Humanity.

I am sorry that I did not recognice anything yesterday. After a lot of work and a nasty discussion with denialists I wrote with brain on auto-pilot. Not very kind from me and not helpful for anybody.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #145 on: May 11, 2013, 02:04:35 PM »
The snow cover anomaly's continue to explode in Siberia and are now expanding in Canada and will quickly expand in Canada over the next 7 days.

The warmth is already huge and spreading.  It's about to explode on both sides of the Hemisphere outside much smaller regions.

You can see below the next 4 days Canada is getting smoked.  Models continue to adjust to warmer in the medium and long range.  I need to start saving the screen shots.  The heights are good but low level temps from 850mb or so to the surface are always off in the Northern Lats to cold.  The GFS surface temps at 06Z for today were horribly to cold in Siberia and North America(Canada.)



It is remarkable.




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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #146 on: May 11, 2013, 02:21:24 PM »
Friv,

Welcome to ASIF!

Verg

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #147 on: May 11, 2013, 03:19:14 PM »
I notice this current “Arctic Oscillation.”
We are having another Sudden Stratospheric Warming?  And it started in North America -- could the recent, repeated cold outbreaks in the US be related to this?
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #148 on: May 11, 2013, 03:44:23 PM »
Friv,

Welcome to ASIF!

Verg

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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #149 on: May 11, 2013, 06:45:24 PM »
Over the last two weeks ASCAT shows a general movement of the pack away from Siberia. This ceased some days ago but the ice has not moved back. MODIS shows some new ice formation, but also patches of open water, both as polynias and cracks between floes of broken ice.

There's a patch of slightly lower concentration in East Siberian/Chukchi, this is visible in MODIS.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c04.2013130.terra
Again the ice has patches of open water that have not re-frozen. Viewing on 250m resolution is worth doing if your connection speed allows.

By adjusting the year in the URL of the above image it is possible to compare previous years back to 2009. Previous years show broken ice, the ice is always broken. But 2013 seems to me to be worse.

Arctic.io's split zoom feature is also invaluable for previous year comparisons. EDIT - previous years don't appear to work, have emailed. But it can still be used to check movement between dates of this year.
http://www.arctic.io/split-zoom/
Doesn't run in IE, I run it in Chrome.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2013, 07:06:03 PM by ChrisReynolds »