Author Topic: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion  (Read 133954 times)

RichardStamper

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1050 on: August 06, 2013, 01:34:15 PM »
Pixel counting colours using GIMP on the images from the TOPAZ4 ice predictions at http://myocean.met.no/ARC-MFC/ indicates a 15% decrease in predicted extent (? the images show "coverage") between August 5th and 12th.  If this came to pass then 2013 would have greater extent than only 2007 and 2012 by that date.  Flipping between the images the predicted impact of the impending cyclone is apparent.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1051 on: August 06, 2013, 02:01:57 PM »
The storm should be kicking off now. The initialisation data from 06z had the storm already below 985hPa. The pressure gradient, especially to the west, rapidly steepens during the today, and should begin ramping up the wind speeds and driving a lot of compaction of the low concentration sea ice around the ESS sections of the CAB, while churning things up in the Laptev side of the CAB through today.



All the while, very warm air swamps the CAA and the western Beaufort sea, which should increase the melt in these regions



So below, is a map of what we might expect from today. The red box is from melt from increased air temperatures, the white arrows indicate compaction and the red circle for the area damaged from churning by the storm.




DaddyBFree

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1052 on: August 06, 2013, 03:23:14 PM »
Thanks for another great update BFTV.  I like the markups you add to the graphics too!

deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1053 on: August 06, 2013, 03:29:12 PM »
Yes, these wind field drawings are very interesting. I also think the opening of the northwest passage is very possible by the end of the month.

paulklem

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Can we get open water at the NP?
« Reply #1054 on: August 06, 2013, 05:16:07 PM »
Great summary, BFTV.  I posted this comment over on Neven's latest blog post:

The storm starts today, and the forecast has changed somewhat, and it doesn't look good for the ice. Although the size and breadth is nowhere near the GAC of 2012, the forecast shows the storm lasting for 5-6 days, weakening, then continuing right to the end of the forecast period (very unreliable more than five days out).

This storm is going to tell the tale of the 2013 melt period in terms of SIE, SIA, and sea ice volume. I think it will tear the CAB ice pack apart to a degree we have never observed before. If the storm moves gradually up to and centers over the NP, we will get a substantial amount of open sea (with less than 15% concentration) at the North Pole for the first time in observed history.

We may see some of the forecasters who predicted open water at the NP this decade, vindicated this year.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1055 on: August 06, 2013, 06:40:04 PM »
Something interesting I spotted, was that the forecast showed two jet loops seem converging over the Arctic ocean to combine into a single strong jet streak. Perhaps someone with a bit more meteorology experience could comment on whether this is unusual or not?



Anyway, it seems after the initial bout of damaging winds, which appears to weaken somewhat by Thursday, one of the most powerful dipole set ups I've seen develops on the 12z GFS , with a a >1030hPa high centred toward the Beaufort sea, with a large <985hPa low centred towards the Laptev/Kara area of the CAB, driving a very tight pressure gradient across the Arctic.

Storm near it's peak on tomorrow night


Subsequent strong dipole next weekend


That dipole could drive a lot of ridging towards Northern Greenland and the Arctic edge of the CAA, and quick compaction of the low concentration ice across the CAB.

It will be interesting to see if the ECM backs up the GFS with this scenario.

forkyfork

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1056 on: August 06, 2013, 06:45:30 PM »
it's a phasing event and that's why the storm gets so strong

deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1057 on: August 06, 2013, 07:14:46 PM »
FishOutofWater from DailyKos has posted a good article on the nascent cyclone: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/06/1229201/-Developing-Polar-Storm-Could-Last-2-Weeks-Destroying-Arctic-Sea-Ice

Quote
However, there is one thing holding back a sustained recovery. The ice is spread very thin. Last summer's record melt left very little thick multi-year ice. Last winter's thin first year ice has been spread, like a layer of slush, across much of the Arctic ocean And now a strong storm is brewing that the GFS model predicts will stir the slushy waters for the next two weeks. Moreover, there is a large area of much warmer than normal water on the Atlantic side of the Arctic ocean. That warm salty water will be driven into the Arctic by the southerly winds blowing up along the coast of Norway.

...

Perhaps the most important effect of this storm could be the increased intrusion of warm and salty Atlantic ocean water into the Arctic ocean. The warmer saltier water may be increasing Arctic ocean convection which may be the factor which climate models have failed to account for when predicting sea ice persistence. Climate models failed to forecast the rapid decline of sea ice over the past decade. Increased intrusion of warm summer water from the Atlantic and the Bering strait is one of the most likely causes of the failed climate model forecasts.

frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1058 on: August 07, 2013, 02:52:39 AM »
Less than one day into this:


pearscot

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1059 on: August 07, 2013, 03:54:56 AM »
Less than one day into this:




Do you mean this is alarming due to the loss it had over a couple of days?  I

I really wonder how the storm is going to affect the sea ice.  Last year it really had a dramatic effect, though this year were are about 600k behind...  That said, I do wonder if this will be enough to get a hole to form over the pole.  So many unknowns!!

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1060 on: August 07, 2013, 09:00:19 AM »
Less than one day into this:...

I'm reasonably certain it is going to be difficult to assess the effects of the storm until after we ge clear sky for the satellites.
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frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1061 on: August 07, 2013, 09:07:36 AM »
I was just showing how incredible the winds are that are kicking off the pattern change and how craptacular the ice is and how mobile it is.

It's actually pretty clear for a 978MB bomb sitting out there.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic

Incredible.  We know the compaction will be amazing.




frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1062 on: August 07, 2013, 09:17:37 AM »

The 00z EURO is out and blows up another big ass HP over the Laptev to the ESS by day 8-10.  More major compaction for the ESS and Laptev side.  Whatever is left of it by then.





jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1063 on: August 07, 2013, 09:42:23 AM »

The 00z EURO is out and blows up another big ass HP over the Laptev to the ESS by day 8-10.  More major compaction for the ESS and Laptev side.  Whatever is left of it by then.


Someone - I don't recall who - was making the glib assertion that this years storm wasn't as intense, and the winds not as bad as 2012. I'm afraid current conditions strongly imply otherwise. The potential is for sustained, surface, hurricane force winds.
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Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1064 on: August 07, 2013, 10:22:45 AM »
I've just published a piece on the ASIB: Third storm
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mabs

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1065 on: August 07, 2013, 10:43:46 AM »
This is what the storm looks like as of right about now-ish:



But my question is: in the upper right-hand corner, are those clouds or is it smoke feeding into the storm?

« Last Edit: August 07, 2013, 10:49:15 AM by mabs »
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anonymous

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1066 on: August 07, 2013, 11:14:48 AM »
But my question is: in the upper right-hand corner, are those clouds or is it smoke feeding into the storm?

Clouds are white and opaque, smoke is grey and transparent. Usually you can find the smoke's source, if it is on the map.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1067 on: August 07, 2013, 11:32:16 AM »
Both the ECM and GFS agree that the storm will last through to Friday, carrying some strong winds from the ESS down toward the Fram Strait.

ECM t0


GFS t6


ECM for Friday t48


GFS Friday t48


After that, both are once again in agreement on the low pressure gradually weakening, with high pressure spreading over the Pacific side of the Arctic.

ECM t120


GFS t120


If you follow the isobars (white lines) and deflect slightly to the right on the images above, that will give you the general wind direction. At around 5 days, we see plenty of compaction and movement of ice toward Greenland and the CAA, with plenty of that going through Fram also. This could see a significant drop in extent, but probably not as much impact on the area, unless the storms strong windfields really break apart the ice pack from now until Friday.

After this time, the models diverge in their predictions, so anything after 5 days should be taken with a pinch of salt

frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1068 on: August 07, 2013, 12:49:10 PM »
The boss is now down to 977MB.  But what is unreal is the 1028 HP like 500 miles away or so.  Just a wild guess.

Either way the result is an incredible wind field. 


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1069 on: August 07, 2013, 09:24:31 PM »
T0 on the 12z still <980hPa, with some very strong winds running from near the ESS down to the NE of Greenland. I think, due to the pressure gradient, the maximum windspeeds from this storm could beat GAC12, with a much smaller and slightly shorter lived wind field this time around.

GFS August 22013

7th

8th


GFS August 2012

6th


7th



Should be interesting watching the MODIS imagery over the next few days.

paulklem

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Comparable 2007 East Siberian storm images
« Reply #1070 on: August 07, 2013, 09:34:45 PM »
I thought I would put up some images of the 2007 storm during the same August period, and in the same location as this week's storm.


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1071 on: August 07, 2013, 09:50:13 PM »
Hi Paul,

I don't think that 2007 one would classify as a storm, just a run of the mill shallow low.



Interesting images though, where are they from?

paulklem

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Images are from Cryosphere video of 2007 melt period.
« Reply #1072 on: August 07, 2013, 10:42:18 PM »
BFTV: The images are from a video of the 2007 ice pack. I discussed in this comment last August:
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/arctic-storm-part-1.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b0167691b1c9e970b#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b0167691b1c9e970b

If you click on the diamond in the run bar at the bottom of the video, you can advance through the video one frame at a time; and back up and move around quite freely.

Perhaps you might look at the charts for August 1st until August 9th, you will have a better idea of what the weather was like during this period.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2013, 10:52:18 PM by paulklem »

frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1073 on: August 07, 2013, 11:17:12 PM »
It was a run of the mill SLP.

But the setup was crazy.  Widespread sunshine and a consistent flow towards the Atlantic side.


paulklem

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Where were all these summer (August) storms?
« Reply #1074 on: August 08, 2013, 12:14:46 AM »
This may be the wrong thread for this discussion, but I will use the timeliness of this discussion with the current storm, and ask forgiveness:

There seems to be a prevailing opinion, that there have been frequent summer storms in the Arctic. I am particularly interested in August storms, especially those strong enough to keep the storm center around 850mb for three days or more, because these are the kind of storms that can cause a massive overturning of the Arctic sea surface layers.

Last year, some posters suggested that there was a major storm in 2005, some have claimed a significant summer storm in 2008, again with no evidence I have seen. Does anyone have a chart for these storms?

If the large counterclockwise rotation of the SLP system in the E. Siberian during August 1-10 in 2007 doesn't qualify, then I don't see any obvious large Arctic storms in August of that year either.

Since 2010, I have only seen the August 2011 storm, the GAC 2012 that hit on August 4-9, and the current storm this August, that have been strong enough to cause massive ice pack disruption. If anyone could point me to the best access to archived Arctic charts, I would be willing to look through them for other August storms. I would like to see the charts for the last ten years for August, if possible.

Or is it just possible, that we didn't see these large storms moving into the CAB before the last three years? If so, then we really are in "uncharted" territory (pun intended).

jdallen

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Re: Where were all these summer (August) storms?
« Reply #1075 on: August 08, 2013, 01:05:23 AM »
I am particularly interested in August storms, especially those strong enough to keep the storm center around 850mb for three days or more, because these are the kind of storms that can cause a massive overturning of the Arctic sea surface layers.

I presume you mean 950mb?  Under 900 is pretty unheard of out side of the tropics, and I don't think we've recorded anything under 870....
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paulklem

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Where was my head.... I meant 980-985 mb.
« Reply #1076 on: August 08, 2013, 02:03:16 AM »
Sorry. I am looking for prolonged cyclones, hitting in August,  that are strong enough to move the ice pack around and turn over the seas for several days, that would typically require a LP center around 980-985 mb. My mistake.

It seems obvious that if one wants to determine the extent that August storms impact the SIE, then comparing to earlier storms of similar size to recent storms is warranted. The paper published this winter, claiming that GAC 2012 didn't impact SIE very much, was based on models developed earlier prior to concerns over storms. I have a hard time believing the 2.7 million SIE lost in August 2012 (versus 1.7 million in August 2007, and August losses of 2.2 in 2008, 1.6 in 2009, 1.8 in 2010, and 1.8 in 2011) wasn't impacted significantly by GAC 2012. Just by comparing to those other years, I estimate GAC 2012 likely reduced the final Arctic SIE by about 500k-600k sq km.

I think this storm will take out about 700k in the week starting from the final SIE reading on Monday, August 5th.

danp

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Re: Images are from Cryosphere video of 2007 melt period.
« Reply #1077 on: August 08, 2013, 02:50:52 AM »
BFTV: The images are from a video of the 2007 ice pack. I discussed in this comment last August
I think that must be synthetic aperture radar, probably RADARSAT or ENVISAT.  It's such a shame that the data is generally unavailable even to researchers without paying and going through lots of red tape.  Makes me appreciate the great volumes of unwieldy data we do get from e.g. MODIS.


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1078 on: August 08, 2013, 12:11:54 PM »
Looks like the storm will continue for another 36 hours or so, before weakening and sitting just between Svalbard and the N. Pole for a few days.

At t0, we still have a very strong storm, centred very close to the N. Pole.





By Monday, it's weakened substantially and and sits just north of Svalbard, while high pressure builds across the Pacific side of the Arctic, producing a strong cross polar flow, with potential for a lot of compaction and extent falls on the Siberian side of the CAB.



That set up lasts from Sunday through to Tuesday, after which the ECM and GFS are in slight disagreement, so not much point looking too far ahead.

frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1079 on: August 08, 2013, 04:29:45 PM »

The ESS was wrecked by the cyclone. 



Vergent

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1080 on: August 08, 2013, 04:50:23 PM »
MASIE SIE:  6,754,854 -220k

V

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deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1081 on: August 08, 2013, 04:50:30 PM »
Very weird to see a band of the cyclone appearing to drag the wildfire smoke with it (the blending and continuity of the wind suggests this, at least.) Hot wind and ash can't be a good omen for this event.

See Link

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1082 on: August 08, 2013, 05:06:11 PM »
MASIE SIE:  6,754,854 -220k

V

Between Tuesday and Wednesday

Northern Hemisphere: -220,117.11
Beaufort Sea:                -14,057.77
Chukchi Sea:                 -16,910.77
East Siberian Sea:         -40,747.11
Laptev Sea:                   -42,427.98
Kara Sea:                        -3,176.76
Barents Sea:                           0
Greenland Sea:              -21,769.25
Baffin Sea:                     -16,785.72
Canadian Archipelago:   -37,933.67
Hudson Bay:                  -10,957.99
Central Arctic Basin:      -14,070.43
Cook Inlet:                      -1,278.83

paulklem

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Storm is perfectly situated to clear out ice toward and over the NP
« Reply #1083 on: August 08, 2013, 06:04:24 PM »
The center of the storm today lies on the 165E meridian, with the edge of the strongest wind field pushing the fractured ice floes toward, then over and away from the NP. When the storm center moves over the NP, then the wind circulation should push ice floes out away from the center. If the LP center hangs out there through the weekend as forecast, I think we are going to see less than 80%, and probably less than 70% ice concentration around the NP when the storm subsides (if and when the storm subsides, because the storm may re-intensify). Will we get some open seas near the pole with less than 15% concentration? Possible, but not likely.

One good thing about this storm, is that eventually there will be a sizable air mass around the pole, that will be very cold (-5 to -10 deg C) for this time of year. There will be a lot of heat removed from the polynyas and open seas and into this cold air mass.

Vergent

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Re: Storm is perfectly situated to clear out ice toward and over the NP
« Reply #1084 on: August 08, 2013, 07:02:19 PM »

One good thing about this storm, is that eventually there will be a sizable air mass around the pole, that will be very cold (-5 to -10 deg C) for this time of year. There will be a lot of heat removed from the polynyas and open seas and into this cold air mass.




Paul,

That's what they used to teach in met school. But since GAC-12, it is no longer true. With an ice diminished pole storms just keep sucking warm air over the ice cap, torching the ice. I had this argument, before GAC-12, with a couple of mets(one of whom later banned me for no reason) over at American Weather. GFS shows no arctic freeze up out to the end of its run.

Vergent
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jdallen

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Re: Storm is perfectly situated to clear out ice toward and over the NP
« Reply #1085 on: August 08, 2013, 07:13:05 PM »
The center of the storm today lies on the 165E meridian, with the edge of the strongest wind field pushing the fractured ice floes toward, then over and away from the NP. When the storm center moves over the NP, then the wind circulation should push ice floes out away from the center. If the LP center hangs out there through the weekend as forecast, I think we are going to see less than 80%, and probably less than 70% ice concentration around the NP when the storm subsides (if and when the storm subsides, because the storm may re-intensify). Will we get some open seas near the pole with less than 15% concentration? Possible, but not likely.

One good thing about this storm, is that eventually there will be a sizable air mass around the pole, that will be very cold (-5 to -10 deg C) for this time of year. There will be a lot of heat removed from the polynyas and open seas and into this cold air mass.

Actually, there already have been some noticeable areas north of 85 with less than 15% concentration.

The storm also appears to have re-activated flow out through the Fram. It is fascinating to watch, in something of the same ghoulish fashion one watches a disaster unfold.
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wili

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1086 on: August 08, 2013, 07:22:55 PM »
Where do you like to go to watch that particular horror flick?

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1087 on: August 08, 2013, 10:42:26 PM »
Where do you like to go to watch that particular horror flick?

Hah!

In this case, it is coming to me ( to all of us, in fact ), and I get to be a direct participant, though it will be a while before we see radical change here in Seattle.  That could happen suddenly if one year we miss out on our spring 'monsoon'.
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Artful Dodger

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1088 on: August 09, 2013, 04:12:06 AM »
Very weird to see a band of the cyclone appearing to drag the wildfire smoke with it (the blending and continuity of the wind suggests this, at least.) Hot wind and ash can't be a good omen for this event.

Hi D/O,

It just goes to show that, in the new Climate,
"What happens in Velsk DOESN'T stay in Velsk"  :P

Cheers!
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1089 on: August 09, 2013, 05:47:13 AM »
Looking at Uni Bremen concentration maps, it's hard to believe so many of the metrics stalled in the last 2 weeks.  Looking at difference between 21 July and 8 Aug (figures below), it seems there has been significant concentration (and area/extent) loss?  NW passage seems to be as good as open all of a sudden too...

frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1090 on: August 09, 2013, 10:47:37 AM »
The ESS/Pacific side got totally rocked.  This is bad, real bad.



Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1091 on: August 09, 2013, 11:01:37 AM »
Uni Hamburg SSMIS comparative map with same-day 2012. Red: ice concentration < 15% in 2013 and >15% in 2012, blue is the reverse.
The blues will probably be taken, but will there be a race for the CAB?

(attached image, log in to see)

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1092 on: August 09, 2013, 01:45:34 PM »
It seems that today is the last day of strong winds and general storm damage to the ice. The ECM at t0 still had a <985hPa storm with a tight pressure gradient, so some disruption to the ice around the N. Pole today is to be expected.



Here's an animation of the Bremen AMRS2 maps from the 4th, with the influence of the storm on the Eurasian side and the warmth over the N. American side quite clear



After today, the ECM shows gradual weakening of the low, and high pressure spreading over the Pacific side of the Arctic. This will produce winds crossing the Arctic, from the ESS/Laptev to N. Greenland and the CAA. This should keep the extent loss rate quite high, as the low concentration ice across the CAB becomes compacted. All the while, the warm air remains over the Beaufort Sea and the CAA, which will promote further melting in this area.

T24


T96


T96 Upper air temperatures (850hPa)


Plenty of scope for further large losses over the coming days

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1093 on: August 09, 2013, 04:42:35 PM »
Frivolousz,

In your reply #1090, where and how did you generate your concentration image, very clean and clear.

A4R

Vergent

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1094 on: August 09, 2013, 04:48:31 PM »
Frivolousz,

In your reply #1090, where and how did you generate your concentration image, very clean and clear.

A4R


That is AMSR2  PR89.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Vergent
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paulklem

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Does Forecast show storm lasting until mid-week?
« Reply #1095 on: August 09, 2013, 05:10:15 PM »
The latest ECMWF 09Aug 00Z shows the storm re-intensifies Sunday with SLP at the center at 980 mb, and Monday at 985 mb.

The tile r04c04 is showing large gaps opening up in the ice pack near the pole. If we get another couple of days of gale force winds, the ice concentrations of large areas in this tile near the pole are likely to drop to less than 60%. The broken floes in the area have been hit with significant wind for about three days so far, and another three days will do a lot of damage, even with somewhat lower wind velocity.

« Last Edit: August 09, 2013, 05:47:24 PM by paulklem »

Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1096 on: August 09, 2013, 05:20:46 PM »
Frivolousz,

In your reply #1090, where and how did you generate your concentration image, very clean and clear.

A4R

It is Uni Hamburg's ASIv6 AMSR2 3.125km image:

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/Arc_latest_yesterday_AMSR2_3.125km.png

Jim

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1097 on: August 09, 2013, 06:31:08 PM »
Hi Paulklem,

Although the ice may well get broken up, this could bode well for the ice. Everything depends on the weather following the storm.

If the arctic remains cloudy and cold, as it has all summer, then the water between the floes could just freeze over - increasing the ice area.

Should high pressure dominate, bringing clear skies, and should warm air get injected into the CAB, then the ice might just melt some more.

Judging from the prevailing conditions this year, I would bet on the former situation developing, rather than the latter.

We could be entering the coming winter with a fairly robust cover of ice that the next 7 - 8 months will just reinforce and build upon.

Vergent

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1098 on: August 09, 2013, 06:49:45 PM »


It looks like ITP-57 is seeing deep mixing.

Vergent
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pearscot

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1099 on: August 09, 2013, 07:50:39 PM »
The ESS/Pacific side got totally rocked.  This is bad, real bad.





What do you mean by this is bad, real bad?  It does look pretty rough, though the ice pack is still some 700k above last year.  It will be interesting to see what happens after this storm winds down.  In a way it almost looks like the ice sheet is being torn in half...