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Author Topic: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion  (Read 767129 times)

Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1250 on: August 30, 2013, 09:14:16 PM »
I think we can slowly start to look out for the minimum, although it might come extra early because of all that low-concentration ice that makes it so easy for polynyas in large patches of sea ice to freeze up.

I haven't had time to keep an eye on things, but will do so this weekend for the next ASI update. I'll try to call the minimum beforehand.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1251 on: September 01, 2013, 01:26:23 AM »
For those of you on Twitter, NASA scientists will be having a question-and-answer session on “All Things Frozen” at 2pm Eastern (US) Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 4, 2013.  Use an #askclimate hashtag.

(For those of you not on Twitter, it’s easy to join -- you just need to give your name, your e-mail address, and pick a username.  Twitter will suggest some accounts you might like to follow to get you started.  You’ll need to follow @NASA_ICE for the the Q&A.)      twitter.com

You can ask questions during the session by replying to any “tweet” (message of up to 140 characters) from @NASA_ICE. Include the hashtag ID “#askclimate” (without the quote marks) in your tweet to be sure they see it during the session.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2013, 04:22:57 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1252 on: September 01, 2013, 09:27:35 AM »
EPIC:


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1253 on: September 01, 2013, 09:33:29 AM »
Yes, this started to show up on ECMWF yesterday. Could prolong the melting season somewhat? I'm not sure, with all that easy to freeze rubble out there.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1254 on: September 01, 2013, 09:36:28 AM »
If tonights Euro happened.  It would set the record for September losses on Extent and Area.  The ice would not be able to refreeze in that scenario.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

pearscot

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1255 on: September 01, 2013, 04:53:59 PM »
I'm confused...why is this so epic? Is it a late season cyclone or something? Looks like a large set up of cold air...
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1256 on: September 01, 2013, 05:19:42 PM »
I'm confused...why is this so epic? Is it a late season cyclone or something? Looks like a large set up of cold air...

It shows the sea level pressure dropping to 970, a pressure expected in cat. 2 hurricanes.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/410/

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1257 on: September 01, 2013, 05:51:26 PM »
But if the cyclones so far this year haven't lead to big area and extent losses, why would we expect this one to, especially since it is getting so late in the melt season and some people are starting to see some refreezing?
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1258 on: September 01, 2013, 06:04:29 PM »
But if the cyclones so far this year haven't lead to big area and extent losses, why would we expect this one to, especially since it is getting so late in the melt season and some people are starting to see some refreezing?

I don't think people are expecting dramatic losses, but we could see dispersion of ice to warmer water, and warming due to surface mixing.  People are seeing some refreeze at high latitude, but that will likely come to an abrupt halt with hurricane force winds.

It will break up the structure of the ice and may shove a decent slug of I've out the Fram.
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pearscot

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1259 on: September 01, 2013, 06:23:44 PM »
I'm confused...why is this so epic? Is it a late season cyclone or something? Looks like a large set up of cold air...

It shows the sea level pressure dropping to 970, a pressure expected in cat. 2 hurricanes.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/410/

Vergent

Thanks! I don't know why I didn't recognize the pressures, my bad.  That is quite interesting actually, the ice pack looks like it is already in terrible shape so I wonder if this could potentially break that pack in half...who knows. I will be interested to see what this year bottoms out at.
pls!

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1260 on: September 01, 2013, 06:58:53 PM »
Long range forecasts bounce around a lot, they tell the range of things that can happen rather than what will happen. They are only stable out to 5 days or so.

Vergent

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1261 on: September 02, 2013, 07:29:34 AM »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1262 on: September 02, 2013, 08:41:53 AM »
I think this is the storm to watch out for.  It is late in the season so water temps are at their warmest, and the ice at its thinnest.  And with the sun about to set, the clouds won't matter.  Of course being late in the season there isn't much time to make a big difference.  But maybe a couple big days might see this year push up the leader board a little.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1263 on: September 02, 2013, 09:15:25 AM »
Euro and GFS both showing a strong DPA.



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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1264 on: September 02, 2013, 11:50:39 AM »
The models are starting to line up a bit better now. This one's NAVGEM (which the US Navy's ACNFS now uses) for Sunday. It's still telling a rather different story to GFS/ECMWF though:


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1265 on: September 02, 2013, 12:37:16 PM »
Global SSTA are reaching territory only reserved for Strong to Super NINO times.

Not these times:

.40C is the magic 1998 Super NINO marker or so.  We are almost there with no NINO, no ENSO neutral/positive.   ENSO NEG NEU.  Eight months running.

« Last Edit: September 02, 2013, 01:53:27 PM by frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1266 on: September 02, 2013, 01:58:39 PM »
Global SSTA are reaching territory only reserved for Strong to Super NINO times.

Not these times:

.40C is the magic 1998 Super NINO marker or so.  We are almost there with no NINO, no ENSO neutral/positive.   ENSO NEG NEU.  Eight months running.

Hey frivolousz21,

Please forgive my ignorance...
1) By NINO, do you mean El Nino?
2) Isn't that a measurement of ENSO?
3) How can NINO be strong, yet ENSO neutral?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1267 on: September 02, 2013, 02:01:47 PM »
The 06Z GFS

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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1268 on: September 02, 2013, 02:20:40 PM »
Global SSTA are reaching territory only reserved for Strong to Super NINO times.

Not these times:

.40C is the magic 1998 Super NINO marker or so.  We are almost there with no NINO, no ENSO neutral/positive.   ENSO NEG NEU.  Eight months running.

Hey frivolousz21,

Please forgive my ignorance...
1) By NINO, do you mean El Nino?
2) Isn't that a measurement of ENSO?
3) How can NINO be strong, yet ENSO neutral?

It's fine.  I was using shorthand.


I am saying we have had a neutral ENSO this year.  Leaning negative.  SSTA in the past have only gotten this warm during the the ENSO NINO phases that were strong or super positive.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1269 on: September 02, 2013, 09:25:41 PM »
Right, Friv!

This is from NCDC  www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global Global analysis July:

“The globally-averaged ocean temperature was the fifth highest for July in the 134-year period of record, at 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20th century average. This marks the warmest July for the oceans since July 2009, when the last El Niño phase on record was beginning. “

While the Arctic doesn’t appear to be spectacular, the oceans silently ask for attention in their own pace.

Here’s OSDPD for today:



Look at the Barentsz Sea, a tiny green/blue spot is all that lasts of the usual September colder area over the Central Bank.

Together with high anomalies in the N Pacific this could set up for some weird fall weather.

Meanwhile, ECMWF calls for a short period of dipole steering over the Arctic, with a plunge into the first winter cold build-up around the 12th of September.

Fin du spectacle!

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1270 on: September 03, 2013, 10:36:02 AM »
In the light of the last two posts, anyone put this study on the Forum yet?
Surface cooling in equatorial Pacific drives decade-long pause in global temperature rise.
Jeff Tollefson
Nature 28 August 2013

http://www.nature.com/news/tropical-ocean-key-to-global-warming-hiatus-1.13620

I'll post this in a better-suited thread too.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1271 on: September 03, 2013, 06:13:50 PM »
It's a bit hazy today, but as Wipneus puts it based on the microwaves, is the Barents finally going to bite?
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1272 on: September 04, 2013, 08:53:40 AM »
It's a bit hazy today, but as Wipneus puts it based on the microwaves, is the Barents finally going to bite?

Based on what Lance-Modis r03c04 looks like, I'd tend to say yes.  I already posted an image of that from yesterday elsewhere.

Looking elsewhere on that image, I see no mesh pack at all.  It's all largish floes surrounded by rubble and small holes, some of which even now seem to be getting bigger.  As I said on the other post, seems like the ice can't make up its mind.

I'm not expecting any sort of major decrease in area or extent, but the continued disintegration of structure is still disturbing.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1273 on: September 04, 2013, 09:04:21 AM »
I say, I think I may have the ghost of a hypothesis...

Consider this (fairly primitive) current map of the arctic:

http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Water/images/arctic_currents_sm.jpg

Is it possible with the melt back and higher salinity, that the Norwegian and other extensions of the North Atlantic Drift may be running closer to the surface near the "Barents Bite", and may in part be responsible for its stubbornness even with the colder temperatures?
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1274 on: September 04, 2013, 01:55:30 PM »
The "Barents bite" doesn't stretch this far (yet?), but there's a nice view of the North Pole today:
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1275 on: September 04, 2013, 05:38:41 PM »
And now a nice view (albeit on a different scale) of the pole plus a big bit of "the bite". The ice certainly looks like it's still melting at a rate of knots around the margins:
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1276 on: September 04, 2013, 10:00:32 PM »
The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out. A Real Hole Near the Pole.

Quote
A large hole (roughly 150 square kilometers or 58 square miles) of near-zero ice concentration appears to have opened up at about 87 degrees North latitude.

It may seem contradictory for a polynya-like opening to form near the pole while temperatures are lower than average, but it highlights the complex interplay between the ice, atmosphere, and ocean.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1277 on: September 04, 2013, 10:36:21 PM »
MODIS tile r03c03 today shows signs of massive fissuring. Some of our members have pointed to this during the last couple of days.
Today, North of Ellesmere, we have a good view. Looking generally over the stretch up to the Pole, it is quite hard to recognise the usual “mesh-pack”-structure.

I had a glance on last year’s images, but the tile had a lot of cloud cover between day 240-250. After 250 the pics do show something similar North of Ellesmere, but not as extensive. And some usual rhomboid structure is easily found into the direction of the Pole.

This is one of this year’s features that will have to be analysed…  What does it tell us on quality of the ice cover?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1278 on: September 04, 2013, 11:59:08 PM »
I had a glance on last year’s images, but the tile had a lot of cloud cover between day 240-250

September 12th last year was the clearest I could find on Worldview. Flipping from Terra to Aqua and back reveals a bit more. The fissuring was nothing like as extensive as this year though, as you say.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1279 on: September 05, 2013, 03:32:19 PM »
OK here's ASCAT for today, enhanced, mid-tones suppressed. Showing some important aspects of ice-quality. Probably not easy comparable to other years FI because water vapour content gives very different refraction of the signal.
But don't let the numbers prevail. Basically we have just an app. 2 Mkm2 remaining 'stronghold' against the CAA.



There are two stories here. One of them is FYI on the Bering side. Given a normal winter, some delay in the melt trend may occur. The other one is the Atlantic side. This is atmospheric and oceanic influx of heat. And it is sending a message... don't fool yourself!...

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1280 on: September 05, 2013, 03:57:41 PM »
OK here's ASCAT for today, enhanced, mid-tones suppressed. Showing some important aspects of ice-quality. Probably not easy comparable to other years FI because water vapour content gives very different refraction of the signal.
Thanks! The differences in backscatter are caused by liquid water content (wet/dry snow) and surface roughness, not changes in water vapor (C-band intensity is almost immune to atmospheric water vapor).

ps. where do you get the data from?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1281 on: September 05, 2013, 10:19:30 PM »
Nukefix, hi,

Try http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php
Pick "ice" from their "Additional Products" window, fill in "Arctic" and the day before...

You're probably right on the wave-backscatter. If so, I'm puzzled why the ocean NE of Frantsa Yosefa is almost black. It should be rough, too, given the winds from the SW.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1282 on: September 06, 2013, 11:14:36 AM »
You're probably right on the wave-backscatter. If so, I'm puzzled why the ocean NE of Frantsa Yosefa is almost black. It should be rough, too, given the winds from the SW.
one logical conclusion could be that it's covered by a thin layer of new ice that is preventing wave-formation. Either that or it's almost dead calm water due to low winds.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2013, 12:37:43 PM by nukefix »

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1283 on: September 07, 2013, 09:14:57 AM »
We got a bit to go before we reach a min:
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1284 on: September 07, 2013, 05:49:24 PM »
Frivolousz,

For CT Area, average (1979 to 2012) date of minimum is 12 Sept, standard deviation of just under 7 days, in other words we're in the period in which 67% of previous minima happen given that we're within 7 days from 12 Sept.

To put it visually.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

The season is already over for practical purposes.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1285 on: September 07, 2013, 11:06:51 PM »
I was referring to extent.

both the Euro and GFS build up a large Ridge.  There is no real strong cold anywhere over a period of time for open water ice growth.







I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1286 on: September 10, 2013, 09:16:34 AM »
The open water seems to be creeping up on the North Pole. This animation of Hamburg AMSR2 shows September 2013 thus far:

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1287 on: September 10, 2013, 10:33:05 AM »
THE EURO IS EPIC


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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1288 on: September 10, 2013, 11:53:58 AM »
Yeah Friv...but a little late.
Nevertheless, with a 965 Hpa Low coming in around Jan Mayen Island next week, ECMWF projects a transport band over Svalbard deep into the CAB. Interesting to see what that 'll do in this stage.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1289 on: September 10, 2013, 04:51:04 PM »
What is this?

CT started showing a sort of embankment in red in front of the ‘ Barentsz Bite’ yesterday.

It looks like this today:



This is CT layered under the UniBremen concentration areas for 26 August.
While wondering what CT supposes the red blob to be, the image gives some idea of the late season dynamics over here.
In two weeks 86K has turned into sea. CT fills it with the blob, 19.5K.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1290 on: September 11, 2013, 08:18:54 PM »
Hamburg AMSR2 reveals the "Barents Bite" looking ever more fragile.
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Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1291 on: September 11, 2013, 08:55:43 PM »
Barents Bite.  :D

Sounds even better than Laptev Bite.
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TerryM

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1292 on: September 12, 2013, 12:13:53 AM »
Also an additional alliterative appellation.
Terry

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1293 on: September 12, 2013, 06:39:04 PM »
Yeah Friv...but a little late.
Nevertheless, with a 965 Hpa Low coming in around Jan Mayen Island next week, ECMWF projects a transport band over Svalbard deep into the CAB. Interesting to see what that 'll do in this stage.

Two wild cards now in the game: Gabrielle and Humberto.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Both show tracks well off-shore. Humberto may track far enough east to break up over Western Europe.   Gabrielle looks to be tracking right along the Gulf Stream and may end up in the Barents.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1294 on: September 12, 2013, 06:55:53 PM »
Two wild cards now in the game: Gabrielle and Humberto.

I've been following them for a while. A bit early to speculate about either crossing the Arctic Circle? I'm ever hopeful that one or t'other will bring some decent surf to South West England though!
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jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1295 on: September 12, 2013, 07:45:23 PM »
Two wild cards now in the game: Gabrielle and Humberto.

I've been following them for a while. A bit early to speculate about either crossing the Arctic Circle? I'm ever hopeful that one or t'other will bring some decent surf to South West England though!

*That* I expect you will get. Regarding surf and water temp, on NOAA's SST map I've noticed some really high temps near Svalbard in three locations,and not over small areas. One suggests several hundred KM2 at over 14C (!). Looking on the same map, in locations roughly corresponding to our 'holes' there are suggestions of warm spots as well.

Are we seeing disturbance in currents?

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_sst_NPS_ophi0.png
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1296 on: September 12, 2013, 10:26:16 PM »
JD Allen,

Be cautious of the anomalies near ice. I take it you're referring to this plot.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

The high anomalies will mainly be due to the ice having receded in the Atlantic sector. Going back to the plot you linked to:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_sst_NPS_ophi0.png

The Svalbard region is currently showing warmer SSTs than along the pack edge probably due to the West Spitzbergen Current.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1297 on: September 13, 2013, 01:44:03 AM »
JD Allen,

Be cautious of the anomalies near ice. I take it you're referring to this plot.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

The high anomalies will mainly be due to the ice having receded in the Atlantic sector. Going back to the plot you linked to:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_sst_NPS_ophi0.png


The Svalbard region is currently showing warmer SSTs than along the pack edge probably due to the West Spitzbergen Current.

Caution taken regarding in-pack polyna water temps.  How common is that kind of warming from the current? That's an awful lot of energy reaching the surface, at temps higher than I'd expect.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1298 on: September 13, 2013, 07:55:04 AM »
If you go back to the SST plot, not anomalies, you'll see that the area of the very high temperature anomalies is marked by an intrusion of warmer waters.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_sst_NPS_ophi0.png
But compared to regions near the ice edge along from that intrusion temperatures are only a few degrees higher, that's the warming I think is due to the ocean current.

My caution regards anomalies doesn't cover all the warming though. The average period for the anomalies seems to be 1971 to 2000. Ice didn't cover the Barents Sea in that period during September.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=08&fy=1980&sm=09&sd=08&sy=1990

There's still a big patch of warming there for which ocean warming and/or changes of currents seems likely.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1299 on: September 13, 2013, 03:20:36 PM »
jdallen Take a look at the zoomable bathymetric at arcticio http://www.arctic.io/zoom/yDzd/0.5;0.5;1/Bathymetry  the erosion of the continental shelfs edge  suggests a mighty series of waterfalls falling off, probably causing 'plug hole' type vortices which interfere with one another, thinning the top layers of the ocean and baring the deeper warmer atlantic waters. I'd be interested in the local methane readings too.