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jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1300 on: September 13, 2013, 06:38:06 PM »
jdallen Take a look at the zoomable bathymetric at arcticio http://www.arctic.io/zoom/yDzd/0.5;0.5;1/Bathymetry  the erosion of the continental shelfs edge  suggests a mighty series of waterfalls falling off, probably causing 'plug hole' type vortices which interfere with one another, thinning the top layers of the ocean and baring the deeper warmer atlantic waters. I'd be interested in the local methane readings too.

Here's a highly simplified map of arctic currents.

http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Water/images/arctic_currents_big_jpg_image.html

Flow in the region of the upwellings parallels rather than crosses the shelf, so I'm doubtful of Plug hole type vortices.  Methane readings would be interesting as well, but rather than increase heat, would help retain existing; the energy we see there was added futher south.
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johnm33

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1301 on: September 15, 2013, 02:12:43 PM »
The warm current shown in that schematic certainly runs more or less parallel to the shelf. Directly over where the main basal water discharge flows off the shelf, judging by the erosion of the slope, just south of west from bear island though it looks like the flow happens along a long stretch of the shelf edge going south.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1302 on: September 15, 2013, 02:27:07 PM »
Two wild cards now in the game: Gabrielle and Humberto.

I've been following them for a while. A bit early to speculate about either crossing the Arctic Circle? I'm ever hopeful that one or t'other will bring some decent surf to South West England though!

*That* I expect you will get

We're drifting off topic here slightly, but it seems as though your forecast may prove to be correct, and my wish may be granted:

http://econnexus.org/humberto-forecast-to-become-first-atlantic-hurricane-of-2013-later-today/#comment-42954

A 19 second period accompanied by gentle offshore winds! :)  Of course that could all have changed by next weekend  :(
« Last Edit: September 16, 2013, 09:04:19 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1303 on: September 16, 2013, 04:26:33 AM »
Johnm33 and jdallen,

Here is the image from methanetracker.org of CH4 for Sept 14, 2013 12-24 hr for the area around Svalbard.

Most of the levels are 1850-1950 ppb, but the lighter reds are 1900-1950, and the darker reds are 1950+ ppbv

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1304 on: September 16, 2013, 04:09:55 PM »
As Espen notes on the IJIS thread, and as Neven has called on his blog, IJIS looks like it hit minimum on 12th. Bremen looks like it hit minimum around the same time.

JAXA(V2) is falling has still not levelled.

NSIDC still state they will open later today, which means we will have to wait a bit for NSIDC Extent and CT Area. I don't expect them today.

Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1305 on: September 16, 2013, 06:26:20 PM »
NSIDC servers are up again, but no new data yet.

CT filled up the backlog of two days that they always have.

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1306 on: September 18, 2013, 10:51:24 AM »
It seems that the HYCOM team is very busy. Haven’t watched since they changed their algorythms during August and came up with a representation looking way out from reality.
Now they present something very different…
Have a look. I’d be glad to hear what’s going on over there.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1307 on: September 18, 2013, 11:07:17 AM »
NSIDC servers are up again, but no new data yet.

There's now new data, along with a new Arctic Sea Ice News:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/09/4292/

Quote
Following a relatively cool summer, sea ice extent fell to a little over 5 million square kilometers (1.93 million square miles) over the first two weeks of September and is at or near the minimum extent for the year. NSIDC will announce the final minimum extent and date once it is confirmed.

Possibly jumping the gun slightly, and for a variety of reasons, here's a hastily produced video of the last month or so of the 2013 melting season:



[Update - New improved video!]
« Last Edit: September 18, 2013, 01:25:20 PM by Jim Hunt »
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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1308 on: September 18, 2013, 11:45:20 AM »
Watching the ice has got me deeply interested in weather, too. Not much hibernating, yet. ECMWF seems to forecast post-tropical storm Humberto to be retraceable all the way from the Mid-Atlantic up to Flade Isblink/Cape Nord NE Greenland within the next ten days.
It 'll be caught in a steering on the Western side of a West-European Omega blocking (to realise within 4-5 days).
I find this possibly illustrative on how energy is redistributed in a fading three cell atmosphere.

Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1309 on: September 18, 2013, 11:52:26 AM »
NORSEX SSM/I extent from arctic-roos.org is a strange bird. It is the only indicator that shows vigorous regrowth at least as big as in 2012 and an extent that is already above 6 million.

Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1310 on: September 18, 2013, 11:58:58 AM »
We have seen the CAA area and extent rise a lot the last week.  Yet we haven't seen much ice growth.  We can see there is some really thin layer of ice in spots.  Based on looking at modis everyday Summer day the last three years.  The passive microwave typically misses ice like that because when its melting the air and water on top of the ice is warm. 

In this case its way over doing it. 

On top of that.  It should show warning to anyone who doesn't doubt how innacurate SIC is for any ice assessment. 

In 2011 The Beaufort was torched.  When it got down to the MYI which was 3-4 Meter thick.  It broke off into large floes and they spread out enough for low concentration.  But there was no chance they melted out. 


I know it's relatively minor but the new ice might go "Up in Smoke" over the next week.  Check out the GFS below. 










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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1311 on: September 18, 2013, 12:22:48 PM »
I am not sure if we have seen the minimum yet.

That new CAA ice better thicken up enough to withstand the warm torch coming in a few days.  The Southerly fetch reaches all the down from the United States where it has been torching for a while. 

This is on top of the compaction on the Laptev side that is currently going on.  MODIS from today show major compaction still taking place.  We have more coming to the Atlantic side as well with the huge ridge building in. 

We will see the ice get pushed off the CAA coast line as well in the Western CAB from this pattern.  We have already seen a bit off it the last few days.

So to me it comes down to how much open water ice growth can happen in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS during this time.  It may be to early for that to happen that far South.  We will see.






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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1312 on: September 18, 2013, 03:43:26 PM »
Continuing the survey on the retreat of the sea ice boundary on the Atlantic side. MODIS tile r03c04 now suggests that boundary to reach almost 600 km N of Ostrov Ushakov and Frantsa Yosefa Zemlya. And a record 250 km NW of Svalbard.
Coming up over the deep sea rift in the middle of Nansen Basin.
And, according to ECMWF, more steering is to come next week.

This is an interesting regional feature on the 2013 melt season story.

I wonder whether the 'Kara Bulge' on 500Mb will make its reappearance this fall. As I remember, it was strong in '11, less pronounced in '12.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1313 on: September 19, 2013, 02:03:16 PM »
As Wipneus has pointed out elsewhere, the "Polar Polynya" seems to have reopened over the last day or two:
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1314 on: September 20, 2013, 02:41:14 AM »
And now on video too! The first Great White Con video update on the refreeze. For some strange reason there's still no sign of the "unbroken ice sheet from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores" that the Mail on Sunday insists is already there!



It looks better on Vimeo, but that doesn't seem to auto-embed:

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1315 on: September 20, 2013, 01:05:17 PM »
A nice view of the ice edge and a few holes this morning. A larger version and much more besides can be viewed at:

http://greatwhitecon.info/resources/the-broken-ice-sheet/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1316 on: September 21, 2013, 05:02:02 PM »
The "Polar Polynya" and the pole itself are disappearing into the darkness from MODIS's perspective. However the sky is still clear on the Laptev side of the CAB. Here's a close up:

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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1317 on: November 20, 2013, 10:47:54 AM »
Ahh...speaking of a hiatus...we have one of about two months on this thread.

Time to step in.

On the weather front interesting things are going on in the Svalbard/Frantsa Yosefa region. As mentioned by others, a deep incursion of anomalous warmth has been going on over there for several days.
Some suppose all this produces is compaction, making way for a sharp freeze extent in the Barentsz and Kara Seas later on.
That could be possible, though the NCEP/MCAR data up to 17 November point at 18+dC temp anomalies NW of Frantsa Yosefa and more than 20+ for the surface skin/SST's.
Near or just over the freezing point. To some extent this event could have brought melting too, at least bottom melt.
As the event is accompanied by an exceptionally deep trough stretching up to the Pole, it could be seen as illustrative for the higher dynamics in the atmosphere North of 60dN.

This is ASCAT, enhanced suppressing mid-tones, for the 19th:



The incursion is clearly visible. It reaches almost to 85dN (see also on UniBremen), which I think is rare for the date. Most new young ice in the Kara Sea stands out quite bright (wet snow?), while the young ice in the Laptev and ESAS/Chukchi regions shows black (it is there, but probably still smooth and lacking much snow cover).

Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1318 on: November 21, 2013, 10:32:01 AM »
Comparing 2012 and 2013 using Jaxa L3 AMSR2 10km ice concentration data.

Extent: +360k7
Area: +363k2

In other words 2013 leads by about 3 freezing days.

Regional the differences in the Kara Sea are almost as big as the totals. Also Baffin, Hudson and the Greenland Sea have more Sea Ice then in 2012. For the Greenland Sea that is for the fist time since April. Ice cover is lower on the other side Chukchi and the Bering Seas.

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20131119-20121119 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -9.9                     1.7                    -1.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  358.2                    35.2                    74.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   90.7                    -0.1                    67.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.8                     1.2                  -141.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                 -121.0                     5.0                   360.7

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20131119-20121119 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   12.6                     6.9                    -2.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  338.6                    24.7                    63.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  101.8                    -0.1                    63.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   13.3                    -7.7                  -159.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                  -96.4                     4.2                   363.2


The numbers can be nicely seen in attached image, except perhaps that the ghost of the "Barentsz Bite" seems to have reappeared.

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1319 on: November 21, 2013, 12:29:54 PM »
Thanks, Wipneus,

Very illustrative, as usual. Together with the impression (from NCEP/NCAR 1000Mb temp anomaly 1 Oct-19 Nov) that 'winter power' up to this stage has only been good in a swath of the CAB N of the Laptev sea (up to -2dC against the Climo), I argue that the ice situation in the Arctic is slowly getting back on trend 2010-2012 again.
Sorry for the long line...

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1320 on: November 21, 2013, 05:58:02 PM »
Thank you both, werther and Wipneus.

I've been watching the refreeze with great interest.

Looking at US Navy HYCOM models, it may be that the lions share of the ice in the Greenland sea arose by way of vigorously reanimated FRAM export, driven to significant degree by the trough mentioned.  The jet stream maps I've followed this season regularly show an almost unbroken flow along eastern NA from the Caribbean all the way to the Norwegian Sea.  The flow seems very chaotic and not conducive to strengthening ice.  I too think the near freezing temps over large areas may be permitting bottom melt.  At the least, they are not permitting thickening past a meter or so.  I'm not sure what the implication of this is, as the greatest build up of ice doesn't start for several weeks yet.

However, if the pattern continues, or re asserts itself at the height of the freeze, it might have dramatic effects come May.
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forkyfork

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1321 on: November 24, 2013, 11:58:32 PM »
Thank you both, werther and Wipneus.

I've been watching the refreeze with great interest.

Looking at US Navy HYCOM models, it may be that the lions share of the ice in the Greenland sea arose by way of vigorously reanimated FRAM export, driven to significant degree by the trough mentioned.  The jet stream maps I've followed this season regularly show an almost unbroken flow along eastern NA from the Caribbean all the way to the Norwegian Sea.  The flow seems very chaotic and not conducive to strengthening ice.  I too think the near freezing temps over large areas may be permitting bottom melt.  At the least, they are not permitting thickening past a meter or so.  I'm not sure what the implication of this is, as the greatest build up of ice doesn't start for several weeks yet.

However, if the pattern continues, or re asserts itself at the height of the freeze, it might have dramatic effects come May.

the ecmwf ensemble mean continues the same general pattern for the next 15 days

Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1322 on: December 08, 2013, 08:22:19 AM »
Comparing 2012 and 2013 using Jaxa L3 AMSR2 10km ice concentration data.

Extent: +245k6
Area: +213k3

Or: 2012 leads by about 2 freezing days.

The difference between the Atlantic and the Pacific side is getting more pronounced now. The Kara Sea has the most positive difference, nearly as large as the total, while the Bering region is completely reversed.
Notice also there is much false ice. The North Sea for instance is far too warm (6-8 oC)
for ice forming, perhaps the 5 December storm is the reason.

Details (in 1000 km2):

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20131206-20121206 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   52.1                     2.3                     3.2
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  204.5                    73.8                   145.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   66.2                     0.1                    62.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.4                    -0.5                  -124.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                 -238.0                    -1.5                   245.6

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20131206-20121206 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   83.2                     2.3                    10.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  249.4                    47.1                    95.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   65.7                     0.1                    11.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.3                    -8.0                  -141.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                 -199.4                     0.2                   213.3


And a delta image:

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1323 on: December 16, 2013, 07:23:53 PM »
Regarding missing data and such...

Does Koeln stop updating its arctic weather data at the end of the melt season?  It appears to have stopped back in September.

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1324 on: December 16, 2013, 08:47:28 PM »
They are moving:

Quote
Please note that our institute has moved from the Kerpener Straße to the Pohligstraße here in Cologne. Due to the move all Unix servers were removed. We have to transfer now all shell scripts and Fortran programs to the Linux system. This will take some time and may be not all information will be available later.

http://www.geomet.uni-koeln.de/beobachtungen/aktuelle-wetterinformationen

(Actual weather information)
« Last Edit: January 03, 2014, 07:03:24 AM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1325 on: January 03, 2014, 07:26:00 AM »
According to Jaxa's AMSR2 data, at the beginning of 2014, this is the current situation of sea ice extent and area:

Extent: +189k6
Area: +338k1

The difference in area is bigger than in extent, the ice pack has fewer leads than a year ago.

On regional scale there are big differences. The Pacific regions Bering and Okhotsk have 400k less extent compared with 2013. On the Atlantic side Barentsz, Baffin and st.Lawrence have much more ice cover now. Ice around Scandinavia including the Baltic is less.

The details ( in 1000km2):

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140101-20130101 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  128.2                    -2.0                    -7.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   83.5                   197.0                   -33.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  171.8                    58.4                     0.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.5                    -1.4                     3.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                 -233.9                  -174.6                   189.6

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140101-20130101 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  162.1                    -4.3                   -11.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  127.7                   203.9                    -7.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  132.8                    36.0                    24.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.7                   -14.3                     8.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                 -194.2                  -123.7                   338.1


The difference map is attached:

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1326 on: January 24, 2014, 06:34:45 PM »
Found this link about ice quality mechanics.  Some comments around it to come. Base premise: warmer winter temperatures will have a sing significant impact on the pack even without a visible change in raw dimensions.

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a256303.pdf
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1327 on: January 24, 2014, 09:06:09 PM »
jdallen......Just started reading the linked article and I thought about this recent occurrence in Chicago. As a result of the recent bitter cold and strong winds, the surface ice near the shore took on some very odd characteristics. The very low temperatures facilitated freezing but the wave action broke  up and battered this ice until it looked and behaved like this.



TerryM

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1328 on: January 24, 2014, 09:31:52 PM »
SH

I grew up on the Great Lakes and that's the damndest thing I've ever seen.

Terry
« Last Edit: January 25, 2014, 08:02:34 AM by TerryM »

Espen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1329 on: January 24, 2014, 11:54:21 PM »
Terry,

I always use them in my GTs ;)
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jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1330 on: January 25, 2014, 10:27:31 AM »
jdallen......Just started reading the linked article and I thought about this recent occurrence in Chicago. As a result of the recent bitter cold and strong winds, the surface ice near the shore took on some very odd characteristics. The very low temperatures facilitated freezing but the wave action broke  up and battered this ice until it looked and behaved like this.




It would not surprise me if this was driven by the relative heat density... Temperature dropping faster than the lake could dump heat, preventing a solid freeze. Looking north, with temps at Svalbard consistently Near or above freezing, and Alaska looking at new heat records, I don't think it is safe to assume the refreeze is following "business as usual".  One odd side effect of milder temperatures might actually be to improve the strength of FYI.  (Via consolidation and forcing out brine).  It is nothing like we have ever seen, I am sure.  What can we predict?!?! Not so much.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1331 on: January 26, 2014, 09:11:53 AM »
Time for an update of the differences of the current ice cover and those one year ago, according to Jaxa's AMSR2 ice concentration data.

All data in 1000 km2.

Totals for the 14 regions:

Extent: -19.8k
Area: +77.7k

If the total differences are small, individual regions show larger differences, not as big as a few monts ago. . On the pacific side Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk show lower ice cover.
The Atlantic side is more diverse.  The Barents sea is still leading compared with 2013. In The St. Lawrence region, and on the other side of Newfoundland in the Baffin region, more ice can be found. The Greenland Sea is lower, probably related to the standstill (perhaps even reversal) of the Fram transport. Very unseasonal, see for instance here
The Baltic, not belonging to the 14 regions, has also less ice than last year.


The details:

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140124-20130124 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   38.4                    -1.6                    -3.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    4.9                    90.1                   -86.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   93.4                   100.4                    -2.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.2                     0.9                    -9.7
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                 -135.2                  -108.2                   -19.8

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140124-20130124 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   65.0                    13.5                    -2.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   46.0                   117.3                   -53.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   73.0                    64.1                   -10.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -1.3                    -4.6                    -8.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                 -135.9                   -84.6                    77.7


And the difference map:

Meirion

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1332 on: January 27, 2014, 07:43:47 PM »
DMI 80 North temps starting to look interesting - if it carries on like this (I know it probably won't) - instead of 2013 half length 80 North melt season we could see double length 80 North melt season

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Rubikscube

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1333 on: January 27, 2014, 08:59:21 PM »
It certainly won't be that high temps all winter Meirion, though, the weather forecast shows no let up in the heat during the coming week, it might perhaps get even warmer. In case you haven't done it yet; check out this site
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php
It provides some great anomaly maps and lots of other nice stuff.

Meirion

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1334 on: January 27, 2014, 10:05:45 PM »
I do think the fact that DMI 80+ melt duration was half average length in 2013 tells you just how cold and unusual arctic weather was last year - if we had weather that was as far from the mean in the opposite direction this year I think you'd see an ice free North Pole by September

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1335 on: January 27, 2014, 10:15:33 PM »
It certainly won't be that high temps all winter Meirion, though, the weather forecast shows no let up in the heat during the coming week, it might perhaps get even warmer. In case you haven't done it yet; check out this site
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php
It provides some great anomaly maps and lots of other nice stuff.

Nice site!

Dang! Looks like today's temperatures swaths of the arctic basin and Beaufort are near or at 20C above the 1979-2000 average.
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deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1336 on: January 27, 2014, 10:36:19 PM »
According to its "Global Overview" page, there was a 4 degree C anomaly in the Arctic from their 1979-2000 period.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php

Next several days suggest much warmer than average Arctic, and a negative Arctic Oscillation to persist.

Jeff Masters also has a post up on Wunderground remarking on all-time January highs in various parts of Alaska. A quick look at some current temperatures shows some places with highs in the 60s. It's rather absurd, but this high pressure ridge in the north Pacific has been part of the weather pattern over the PNW for the past month now.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2620
« Last Edit: January 27, 2014, 11:29:43 PM by deep octopus »

deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1337 on: January 31, 2014, 09:34:14 PM »
Insane Arctic warming continues. University of Maine's CCI Climate Reanalyzer shows Arctic basin temperatures about 6.8 degrees C above 1979-2000. Astonishing. Euro models are showing not only a persistent high pressure centered on Alaska, but a strengthening to 1050 hPA by the 8th, with lower troposphere temperatures very close to the freezing point.

The Bering Sea is looking rather pitiful this year. There's almost no ice, with only about a month and change left in the freeze season. The high pressure center seems to be creating easterly winds that are pushing what little ice is in the Bering towards Russia and away from the Alaska coast. Early speculation leaves me worried about the Pacific side of the Arctic becoming vulnerable very early this year, without much of a backdoor shield in Bering. We're at the point in the season now where temperatures are hitting their nadir and the window for freezing is closing.

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1338 on: February 01, 2014, 12:38:28 AM »
Insane Arctic warming continues. University of Maine's CCI Climate Reanalyzer shows Arctic basin temperatures about 6.8 degrees C above 1979-2000. Astonishing. Euro models are showing not only a persistent high pressure centered on Alaska, but a strengthening to 1050 hPA by the 8th, with lower troposphere temperatures very close to the freezing point.

The Bering Sea is looking rather pitiful this year. There's almost no ice, with only about a month and change left in the freeze season. The high pressure center seems to be creating easterly winds that are pushing what little ice is in the Bering towards Russia and away from the Alaska coast. Early speculation leaves me worried about the Pacific side of the Arctic becoming vulnerable very early this year, without much of a backdoor shield in Bering. We're at the point in the season now where temperatures are hitting their nadir and the window for freezing is closing.

The high heat across the arctic basin has been consistent in all of the reporting sites I have been following.  It does not *seem* to have translated into a weaker refreeze in he basin, the CAA and along eastern Siberia, but As yet, the implications for spring are unclear.  It is doubtful they will be positive.  The implications for areas in the northern hemisphere currently suffering drought may be dire.
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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1339 on: February 05, 2014, 12:32:38 AM »
Hah,
The Mackenzie River delta, Pevek Bay, Sermeq Kujalleq, Baydaratskaya Bay, they're all back on the MODIS screen!
At least on the Bering side, the first impression is not supporting a notion of strong winter power! And a cold Feb is needed for the Baffin Bay to get some lasting ice cover next spring.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1340 on: February 05, 2014, 09:11:46 AM »
Hah,
The Mackenzie River delta, Pevek Bay, Sermeq Kujalleq, Baydaratskaya Bay, they're all back on the MODIS screen!
At least on the Bering side, the first impression is not supporting a notion of strong winter power! And a cold Feb is needed for the Baffin Bay to get some lasting ice cover next spring.

I'm afraid we may be disappointed, Werther.
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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1341 on: February 05, 2014, 12:10:17 PM »
I agree, JDAllen,
I don't see any sign of an atmospheric mechanism that could produce an anomalous cold Feb over the Arctic Ocean like last year.

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1342 on: February 07, 2014, 01:15:55 PM »
The rating of ‘winter power’, based on NCEP/NCAR Temp 1000Mb anomaly 1 October – 4 February.

I’ve been following that regularly and it looks like the initial cold (relatively…) start has been compensated through Jan and especially the last days up to 4 Feb. The Kara Sea still is about 4dC colder than last winter. There’s a swath north of Severnaya Zemlya up to the North Pole at -2 compared to last year. Also E. of the New Sib Islands -3 is found and the N. Baffin Bay ranks at -2/-3.

OTOH anomalies in the Chukchi and Beaufort Sea are as large as last year. Even more so, about +4, along the Alaskan N Slope, with an extension at +2 all the way to Ellesmere Island.

Winter still brought better circumstances for the ice than last year. But, if Feb passes without the ‘circum-basin’ cold flash that characterized that month last year, the sea ice will get to spring without a boost.

Wipneus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1343 on: February 13, 2014, 08:15:58 AM »
Time for an update of the differences of the current ice cover and those one year ago, according to Jaxa's AMSR2 ice concentration data.

All data in 1000 km2.

Totals for the 14 regions:

Extent: -534k
Area: -609k

Bering Sea is the biggest contributor to the negative difference. Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea and Barents Sea also have significant lower ice cover. The Gulf of St. Lawrence and Baffin Bay see more ice than in 2013.

The details:

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140211-20130211 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -31.5                    -1.8                    -0.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   11.2                   -75.2                  -115.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   48.4                   118.9                    -9.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    0.6                    -1.0                    -2.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                 -333.0                  -142.5                  -534.0

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140211-20130211 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -27.6                    -8.7                    -5.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   12.2                   -70.4                  -107.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                    4.4                   108.7                    -6.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.3                    -5.5                    -5.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                 -296.3                  -201.2                  -609.3


The difference map shows a  different picture than maps earlier this season. Where the Atlantic sector showed mostly blues, there is now less ice. Just around Newfoundland the ice is still strong.


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1344 on: February 13, 2014, 08:29:53 AM »
Time for an update of the differences of the current ice cover and those one year ago, according to Jaxa's AMSR2 ice concentration data.

All data in 1000 km2.

Totals for the 14 regions:

Extent: -534k
Area: -609k

The ice off of Newfoundland and the St. Lawrence will vanish in days once we hit mid March.  I find the lower SIA much more disturbing than the reduced extent, especially in the Greenland Sea, Barents and Arctic Basin proper.  I'm unsure of the implication of reduced SIA in the Bering and Okhotsk, but even while it is dramatic, I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have overall on the melt on the north side of the Bering Strait.

That said, lack of ice in the Bering means that the sea there is already picking up heat from insolation, which will inhibit further expansion of the pack south.
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jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1345 on: February 13, 2014, 08:58:49 AM »
Further food for thought.

Here's a contrast to muse over.  There will most likely be more ice added between now and 4/15, but have a look.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=15&fy=2013&sm=02&sd=10&sy=2014
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1346 on: February 13, 2014, 02:17:28 PM »
Time for an update of the differences of the current ice cover and those one year ago, according to Jaxa's AMSR2 ice concentration data.

All data in 1000 km2.

Totals for the 14 regions:

Extent: -534k
Area: -609k

The ice off of Newfoundland and the St. Lawrence will vanish in days once we hit mid March.  I find the lower SIA much more disturbing than the reduced extent, especially in the Greenland Sea, Barents and Arctic Basin proper.  I'm unsure of the implication of reduced SIA in the Bering and Okhotsk, but even while it is dramatic, I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have overall on the melt on the north side of the Bering Strait.

That said, lack of ice in the Bering means that the sea there is already picking up heat from insolation, which will inhibit further expansion of the pack south.

SIA anomaly's are concerning me as well. Attached is a CT comparison of 2/10/2013 and 2/10/2014.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=02&fd=10&fy=2013&sm=02&sd=10&sy=2014

If these 2 maps are accurate, it seems the ice is weak across the entire arctic basin as compared to last year. The Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS all show evidence of weakness as compared to 2013 and this has to be driven by the same atmospheric processes that have led to the large anomalies in the Bering and Sea of Okhotsk and record warmth in much of Alaska throughout the winter. Didn't some of the thickest ice move towards the Beaufort last season? Why hasn't this migration contributed to a robust SIA there as we approach the end of the freeze?

The Atlantic side is even more alarming. While the Greenland and Barents Sea show large anomalies, it is the incursion of low concentration SIA that stretches into the CAB past the pole that really scares me. Even the Laptev is showing some minor weakness as compared to 2013. Didn't we have record or near record temperature anomalies north of 80 degrees this winter? As much of the NH suffers severe winter weather, has the warm Arctic cold continent phenomena dealt a serious blow to ice formation in the CAB? Are these SIA anomalies evidence of slow volume growth?
« Last Edit: February 13, 2014, 02:40:54 PM by Shared Humanity »

ktonine

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1347 on: February 13, 2014, 05:16:51 PM »
JD:
Quote
There will most likely be more ice added between now and 4/15...

If you look at the PIOMAS daily data there has typically been a 12% increase in volume from February 12th to spring volume max (around day 110 or April 20th).  That has actually increased in recent years (2004 thru 2013) to 16%.

We are seeing increased melt season losses and increased winter gains.  The gains are also coming later in the freeze season. The average end of the freeze season has shifted compared to the 1980s (ending 5 days earlier), but largely unchanged compared the 1990s (only one day earlier).

The periods I looked at weren't strictly by decade -- I grouped them (1979 - 1990), (1991- 2003), and (2004 - 2014).


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1348 on: February 13, 2014, 07:56:01 PM »
@Shared Humanity - I was staring at exactly those images late last night. I also took a look at the CAA via the Canadian weather service satellite imagery and Lance-Modis.  Compared to the cracking event(s) last year at this time... There is literally almost no size-able solid extent to fracture. The Beaufort already looks like a bowl of ice cubes.

@ktonine - I concur.  Your observation supports some of what I've been saying about increased volatility in pack coverage - like a spinning top slowing down and starting to wobble wildly before falling.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #1349 on: February 18, 2014, 11:34:29 PM »
This is the ECMWF prognosis for Geo 500Mb and Temp 850Mb 10 days from now:



Interesting if it comes true. Most of what's left of winters' cold seems to flush into NA for one last shot.