Just did a short comparison of ‘winter power’ for the period 1 Oct up to 1 March, ’14 against ’13.
There was no Februari cold spell over the Arctic. Thus, a slight shortfall has turned into a solid lead.
I’m very curious what PIOMAS will report in the coming days, considering this. The differences indicate, as an example, the Beaufort Sea in front of the Mackenzie delta experiencing about mean 4 dC higher temps than last year.
On MODIS, there are new details visible in the rising sunlight. FI cracks north of the Chukchi Sea venting water vapour, indicating the difference between -23dC air and much warmer water under the ice.
Another detail is the broken structure over all the Kara Sea. Surprising, because ‘winter power’was stronger this year. Could it be the rapid ice formation last fall has effectively isolated the sea water from further cooling?
Questions enough, although it takes at least 40 days more for the story to start unfolding N of 70degrees.
For the extent in St.Lawrence, Labrador-, Bering- and Okhotsk Sea, the bell will toll much sooner.