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Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #300 on: June 05, 2013, 12:55:53 PM »
Awesome info, Friv. Thanks a lot.
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deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #301 on: June 05, 2013, 04:17:13 PM »
Temperature wise, I believe friv is spot on, Environment Canada's weather forecasts confirm the "torch" that's setting up in Canada.

Regarding forecasts in Nunavut...
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=NU

Pond Inlet holds between 14 C and 16 C going into the weekend.
Taloyoak surges from 7 C today to 21 C on Friday, and slowly tapering down from there.

These indicate that temperatures are poised to be around 10 to 18 degrees C above the average high for those respective towns for June. There's no need to pile on, really. Examining other coastal towns and villages suggest air temperatures well above freezing throughout.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #302 on: June 05, 2013, 04:46:26 PM »
Wow, those temperatures. Almost like the Arctic Ice's Swan Song.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #303 on: June 05, 2013, 04:54:46 PM »
It's been above freezing for the last 18 hrs at 88.8N.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/PAWS975420_atmos_recent.html

If melt ponds form by 6/15, in addition to the high north polynyas, the ice cap is toast. Albedo feedback rules. 100-300 W/m^2 24/7 for 10 weeks will melt all the ice.

Vergent

Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #304 on: June 05, 2013, 05:45:35 PM »
Looks like things are getting started, just in time for this weekend's ASI 2013 update number 2.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #305 on: June 05, 2013, 06:36:47 PM »
Temperature wise, I believe friv is spot on, Environment Canada's weather forecasts confirm the "torch" that's setting up in Canada.

Regarding forecasts in Nunavut...
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=NU

Octopus,

The predictions for resolute this Sunday are for a high of +6C and an overnight low of +4C.  Since the record high for this location is +7.3 (since 1948, measured in 1998) I would be very surprised if this isn't a record high temperature for the overnight low).

Resolute Temp Forecast:  http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

Resolute Historical Records: http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2403500
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+3C today

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #306 on: June 05, 2013, 07:02:16 PM »
It's been above freezing for the last 18 hrs at 88.8N.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/PAWS975420_atmos_recent.html

If melt ponds form by 6/15, in addition to the high north polynyas, the ice cap is toast. Albedo feedback rules. 100-300 W/m^2 24/7 for 10 weeks will melt all the ice.

Vergent

Whoa, how likely is this?

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #307 on: June 05, 2013, 07:50:27 PM »
Siffy,

Not at all likely. If I say any more I'll end up insulting someone (again).

Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #308 on: June 05, 2013, 10:49:46 PM »
Churhill, MB is up to 79F which smashes the old record of 76F set in 2006.

Tomorrow's record of 73F will get obliterated which was set in 2008.

The day after won't be of 82F set in 2001.

Some high clouds look like they won't let temps rise into the low to mid 80s.

Still might hit 81F or so.

But still...it's near 80F.  Nothing like a 30F above normal day with a stiff SW wind to roast some ice.

A lot of you guys follow bigger picture stuff.  I prefer the follow the weather method.

I have seen many post's wondering about the slow start to the melt season.  The answer is the weather. 

The most fascinating thing for me is in a warming climate weather extremes become more likely and they tend to sit on the side of warmth.

This method has made me the most successful predictor of short and medium term ice conditions on Amercianwx.  But most of it, until last year people let emotional well-wishing supersede bias.

I am convinced if we don't see a massive Dipole all Summer 2012 won't be caught.  The heat in the water last Summer over the Beaufort and Kara early on did major damage and those regions are falling way behind vs last year in that regard.  We will see.

The most recent MODIS image from today




Open water there isn't closing up again and will expand rapidly over the next week. 

This area is going to be warm for a while.  But it's more than that. 

The water albedo is very low and the Hudson has recently shown it can warm up to 8C min upwards of 15C along the edges over the entire Bay in-spite of convective overturning.

When I first got into this I couldn't believe the Hudson historically was so much colder and in the most recent 5-7 years has been warming dramatically in Summer.

This is a big feedback even if it only matters a few months of the year.

the Hudson protects regions to it's North and NE even if it's only a little bit because it will obviously cause air-masses to cool when it's ice covered.  Even water since it's not that warm.

Come mid to late August a Hudson Bay like we have seen recently 4-10C above normal has an SLP go NW of it into the Western CA will have less of an effect on the warm air-mass.  Since solar insolation at 55-60N in August is still very strong. 

Just imagine if the Hudson wasn't there.  Would GIS even be the same right now?  How many glaciers North and East of the Hudson will still be there.

For example.  Look at the Air-mass that models crapped the bed on over Central Canada.  Solar Insolation is very powerful right now.  This ball of heat peaks out at 20C 925mb, 13-15C 850mb. 

H5 heights rise big time over the next 2 days.  Ample Sunshine all over the region and yet the airmass from West to East over the Hudson get's modified dramatically.

Even though large scale features say the winds should be screaming from S to N over the Hudson.  They don't some where as they get over the ice pack from the surface first upwards on a slope to the East, it's like some kind of cold front only over the Hudson forms.

I have seen this 3 or 4 times.  Then in August under the same situation winds stay consistent without the ice I guess created a massive temperature difference, most notably near the surface.

It's 80F at the shore and 35F 50 miles East over the ice.

Amazingly neat.



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Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #309 on: June 05, 2013, 11:50:38 PM »
Quote
A lot of you guys follow bigger picture stuff.  I prefer the follow the weather method.

I prefer following you, Friv!   8)

Last year you found just the right tone and improved your forecasts by caveating some more, without ditching great jargon like 'roast' and 'torch'. Thanks for sharing your thoughts here as well.
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Whit

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #310 on: June 06, 2013, 12:11:12 AM »
It looks to me, and this is mostly based on a pure visual inspection of the ice supported by Piomas thickness data from the eminent Mr. Reynolds, that in general the margins are in slightly better shape than last season, while the interior is worse off.

That in itself is an argument for a steeper drop-off when the Barberque gets past the margins.

As a caveat, it also mirrors my preconceptions about how ice behaves, which might be a bad thing as analysis goes.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #311 on: June 06, 2013, 04:38:45 AM »
Quote
I am convinced if we don't see a massive Dipole all Summer 2012 won't be caught.  The heat in the water last Summer over the Beaufort and Kara early on did major damage and those regions are falling way behind vs last year in that regard.  We will see.
While I respect your approach regarding ASI I have to disagree with this statement (although you well may be right). The reason being that the ice sheet is so thin and sooooo very fissured that these persistent low pressure systems (a.k.a. Varmint Storms) are smacking the CAB ice around like a red headed step child!

Those low concentrations north of 85N are  the latest sissy slaps dealt to the ice cap and here is the culprit.

Because the CAB ice is both thin and fissured these systems have a much easier time drawing energy from the Arctic Ocean than they used to. We shall see how often they pop up this year and how long they persist. My guess is above average at least.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #312 on: June 06, 2013, 05:46:47 AM »
It occurs to me, with the massive fracturing and re-fracturing of the ice, that we are dramatically increasing the area exposed to sea water.

From some of the papers I posted earlier, as I recall once you get below 100M in diameter, lateral melting begins to make a noticeable and increasing contribution to reducing floes.  Certainly not all the ice is being reduced to this size, but I expect *enough* of it; perhaps enough to make up for reduced expanse of clear water.  Add the "stirring" effect of the storms mixing sea water, and I think we will see there is a lot more energy available than in the past.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #313 on: June 06, 2013, 07:49:03 AM »
Quote
If we don't see a major dipole in the summer...

Dipole anomaly for June.


A major driver of the AD since 2007 is the ridge over Greenland (high pressure). Here is a plot of the intensity of the Greenland Ridge.

fishmahboi

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #314 on: June 06, 2013, 08:08:52 AM »
GFS charts at 360 hrs shows some pretty warm temperatures flooding into the Arctic Basin area at 850 HPA.


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #315 on: June 06, 2013, 08:44:28 AM »
It occurs to me, with the massive fracturing and re-fracturing of the ice, that we are dramatically increasing the area exposed to sea water.

From some of the papers I posted earlier, as I recall once you get below 100M in diameter, lateral melting begins to make a noticeable and increasing contribution to reducing floes.  Certainly not all the ice is being reduced to this size, but I expect *enough* of it; perhaps enough to make up for reduced expanse of clear water.  Add the "stirring" effect of the storms mixing sea water, and I think we will see there is a lot more energy available than in the past.

Given the broken-up nature of the ice, and the reduced volume, the longer the surface area stays up, the less effort per unit area it will actually take to melt it all. If the area was already falling off i would be less woried about a crash than the current situation where we have large amounts of broken ice somehow maintaining (or only slowly decreasing) area under conditions which have been shown to decrease area when solid ice is present.

Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #316 on: June 06, 2013, 10:11:57 AM »
I am sorry but I can't buy that having an SLP sit over the Arctic  Basin towards the Canadian side is going to cause the same kind of melt than having a persistent dipole anomaly.

It's not as simple as that.  For one.  Insolation is being wasted that you can't make up.  The Dipole anomaly that Chris Reynold's graphs show's it isn't a mere coincidence with the huge collapse of the summer sea ice besides MYI flushing in winter before 2007.  It was the sole reason 2007 collapsed.  You have to have two things.

1.   Lot's of Sunshine
2.  The ice being pushed towards the Atlantic side by the weather.  Which is exactly what the dipole anomaly does.

Last year on this date a vigorous Dipole Anomaly was already fully developed. 

And the ice pack had holes all over the place.  The Beaufort and Kara/laptev already in shambles.

There was almost no cold air left.  The snow was melted or nearly melted over a lot of the ice pack. 



This is 2013:



That is 2012 a week from now. 



I have to completely disagree about the thin part.  It's no different than any of the last three years.

That hycom model is a complete joke.  There is no way the ice thinned that much under the cold air it has been under + clouds day in and out.  Modis show's only the exteriors have seen snow melt or is melting and those areas haven't even opened up water. 

Even with the incoming -NAO which will help things along. It forces cold air and clouds back over the Kara.

I can say with 99 percent confidence in 4-5 days 2012 will be below 2013 in Area and Extent and 2013 is not coming close to catching 2012 again.

I do expect the Extent min around 4.25km2.  Not 5.0 mil km2 or anything.  Unless the +NAO comes back for an extended period of time.




It's going negative as we speak.  But there will still be lag.  Snow has to melt.  melt ponds have to form.  on top of that, this send the cold and clouds back to the Kara before it could melt out at all.  There are large floes in the Kara.  They won't just melt out over night.  The Kara has 3 more days at the most before -5 to 10C 850s and clouds come back.  Temps will go back below freezing under that.  Or be close to freezing.

We will see.





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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #317 on: June 06, 2013, 12:04:58 PM »
frivolousz21,

Two more important aspects of the dipole anomaly is the drawing in of warm air across the Pacific side of the Arctic, and, if the dipole is strong, long lasting and set up right like in 2007, it can send warmer saltier waters from the Pacific into the Arctic ocean via the Bering strait.

These were very important in 2007, especially in maintaining the -ve extent anomalies into Autumn

Quote
If we don't see a major dipole in the summer...

Dipole anomaly for June.



Hi Chris Reynolds

Could you tell me where you got the dipole graph from? Cheers.

Neven

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #318 on: June 06, 2013, 12:50:48 PM »
I think I mostly agree with you, Friv, but don't forget that after a flying start 2012 went into a slump. It didn't matter all that much for SIA/SIE decrease, maybe because of that good start, but also because the ice was thin. And theoretically speaking (and there is evidence as well, of course) there's plenty of thin ice this year as well, probably even more than last year.

I think if 2013 has a good period, a couple of weeks of conditions that are conducive to melting and transport, etc.,  that it could give 2012 a good run. It all depends on how crucial a good start to the melting season is. This year's start is bad.
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wanderer

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #319 on: June 06, 2013, 01:08:54 PM »
Quick Ice Thickness Comparison between June 4th 2012 and same day 2013

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #320 on: June 06, 2013, 01:16:50 PM »
Thank you frivolousz21 for explaining the weather impacts on sea-ice dynamics so well that even I am able to follow your points.

One point is still unclear to me: In 2013 there was earlier melt of siberian snow and Laptev lost some ice much earlier than 2012 - could there be a risk that Laptev ice loss could balance partly the slow loss in Barents? I understood this would be unlikely in arctic dipole condition because clouds would just sit there reducing heating of the water - is it that simple or do I miss something important? Like warm and wet siberian air going to be sucked into the CAB by the low pressure?

And is it OK for estimations of September state to ignore late melt in regions like Hudson/Kara/Bering in 2012/2013 since those areas will melt anyway or can those areas somehow prevent melt of FYI in the CAB?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #321 on: June 06, 2013, 03:02:52 PM »
the Hudson is irrelevant for CAB melt, at least

SATire

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #322 on: June 06, 2013, 03:22:23 PM »
the Hudson is irrelevant for CAB melt, at least
probably - but maybe Hudson ice feeds the lows swirling around Greenland and thus may disturb the arctic dipole? I am only guessing because I am really not sure about the impact of such details. But any useful relationships are of interest to get to an deeper understanding of the changes we observe.

Anyway- I would love to ignore my guessing and I am looking forward to what friv would write.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2013, 05:20:58 PM by SATire »

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #323 on: June 06, 2013, 04:24:58 PM »
Quote
The Dipole anomaly that Chris Reynold's graphs show's it isn't a mere coincidence with the huge collapse of the summer sea ice besides MYI flushing in winter before 2007.  It was the sole reason 2007 collapsed.
When comparing this year to 2007 you should keep in mind that May 2013 volume is 14% lower than May 2007 with a much lower avg thickness.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas
In regards to the Hudson Bay 2013 ice levels look to be less than either 2007 or 2012.
However, I like your perspective friv, please keep posting.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #324 on: June 06, 2013, 06:17:28 PM »
Born From The Void,

Overland, J.E., J.A. Francis, E. Hanna, and M. Wang, 2012: The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation. Figure 2.

If you can't get hold of a copy I have the version that was sent in for accepted submission in MS Word format. I understand there were no substantial changes. I've blogged on it here:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/summer-daze-arctic-dipole.html

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #325 on: June 06, 2013, 07:32:28 PM »
Chris and all,

For those interested in high pressure ridging impact on the Arctic and global climate, there is a 1 hour live streamed Climate Desk broadcase at 4:30 EDT today featuring Jennifer Frances and Stu Ostro from Weather.com

See the article at: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/06/one-meteorologistss-come-jesus-moment-climate-change

The live stream link is in the box under the lead photo on the right side.

A4R

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #326 on: June 06, 2013, 08:20:43 PM »
Thanks for that A4R.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #327 on: June 06, 2013, 08:28:36 PM »
What is happening East of Greenland? I post here part of the famous Wipneus maps for the 4th and 5th of June for that region. Doesn't look well!

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #328 on: June 06, 2013, 10:03:48 PM »
Wouter, the wind was blowing in the "wrong" direction

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #329 on: June 07, 2013, 03:11:19 AM »
frivolousz21 said: "There is no way the ice thinned that much under the cold air it has been under + clouds day in and out."

friv - I enjoy your weather summaries, but don't forget that clouds can be either a positive or negative feedback.  Anyone that has lived in northern latitudes knows that cloudy winter days are usually much warmer than bright sunny days.

Wayne Davidson has shown that even in arctic spring clear skies don't necessarily mean more melt.  He's done some interesting  research that can be found on his Extremely High Horizon Refraction blog http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/05/sea-ice-phase-change-from-underside.html.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #330 on: June 07, 2013, 07:26:20 AM »
frivolousz21 said: "There is no way the ice thinned that much under the cold air it has been under + clouds day in and out."

friv - I enjoy your weather summaries, but don't forget that clouds can be either a positive or negative feedback.  Anyone that has lived in northern latitudes knows that cloudy winter days are usually much warmer than bright sunny days.

Wayne Davidson has shown that even in arctic spring clear skies don't necessarily mean more melt.  He's done some interesting  research that can be found on his Extremely High Horizon Refraction blog http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/05/sea-ice-phase-change-from-underside.html.


I understand but buoys in the region under that big vortex show that it has been cold.



On top of that.  They report snow depths of 30CM.  A foot of snow and surface temps have gone above freezing for 12 hours around the North Pole.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the snow is melting.  But I can't see how much could of melted. 

Given the airmass in place has been sporting 850mb temps way below freezing, except for one day or so.

Snow albedo is already up to 85% with dry snow.  Let's give it 70% then cloud albedo has to be added.  I'd think very very little solar insolation would make it down in that environment.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #331 on: June 07, 2013, 08:20:06 AM »
I think the answer is bottom melt.  There's still a lot of discussion back and forth about this.  However, some of the stuff I've read about melting in the Beaufort suggested that almost 2M of the melt in that region came from ocean.  The same paper had only about 50CM at 90N from the same process; *however*, previously, the ice hasn't been as broken up.

I'm also wondering if the movement is stirring up the usual halocline separation, and permitting more heat exchange.  If that's the case, with higher surface temps, there could be as much as 2CM a day peeling off of the bottom of the pack.  In this particular case, snow on top could actually be an accelerator to melting; it could insulate against the lower air temperatures.  Not a lot, mind, but anything which forces heat into the ice would contribute.

When the ice was consistently thicker across the area - 3-5 meters - this amount of melt would be trivial, and the thickness of the ice itself would provide some buffering.  With ice less than 3M, in many cases, less than 2M, even a CM/day substantially reduces the ice fairly quickly.

I think the key issue is just how incredibly fragile the pack is compared to the past.  If we go through the season without a serious heat shock, we may not hit last year's numbers.  If we do get something strong, like the cyclone of last year, combined with and influx of mid summer heat, I think it could go very badly in a hurry.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #332 on: June 07, 2013, 10:02:19 AM »
One area that won't show up on the SIE/A charts in a big way but it is of extreme importance is this one.  The transformation is remarkable.  Below the satellite image is today's snow cover anomaly.  You can see the snow cover is actually worse futher North above the Southern most water ways.  Back in the1970s the Southern most water ways didn't even go "ice free" some Summers. 

Those Southern most water ways are likely seeing incredible ice melt rates right now.  Since winds are relatively light

Arctic bay on the Southern side of the NW Passage is forecasted to get rain this week with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s.  OMG.  It's the first 10 days of June. 

The records for that site only go back to 1999.  While last year and 2008 had some highs in the 7-9C range a couple times during the first half of June.  The overnight lows were below freezing.

It's forecast to not go below freezing for the next 7 days.  This is likely a model forecast.  It might be to cold.

The snow cover being gone or almost gone changes everything.  Surface heating will explode with 400w/M2+ and no snow to melt or lower albedo.


http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-10_metric_e.html









pending on what happens.  We might see record melt this year in the Canadian Archipelago.

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jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #333 on: June 07, 2013, 10:14:15 AM »
I concur...I have been watching the temps there pretty closely as well.  It is astonishingly hot in northern Canada, and to a somewhat lesser degree , interior Alaska.

The color of the water in some of the images is confusing. It does not look like ice, but not like open water either.  Runoff? Slush?
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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #334 on: June 07, 2013, 10:31:48 AM »
I think the answer is bottom melt.  There's still a lot of discussion back and forth about this.  However, some of the stuff I've read about melting in the Beaufort suggested that almost 2M of the melt in that region came from ocean.  The same paper had only about 50CM at 90N from the same process; *however*, previously, the ice hasn't been as broken up.

I'm also wondering if the movement is stirring up the usual halocline separation, and permitting more heat exchange.  If that's the case, with higher surface temps, there could be as much as 2CM a day peeling off of the bottom of the pack.  In this particular case, snow on top could actually be an accelerator to melting; it could insulate against the lower air temperatures.  Not a lot, mind, but anything which forces heat into the ice would contribute.

When the ice was consistently thicker across the area - 3-5 meters - this amount of melt would be trivial, and the thickness of the ice itself would provide some buffering.  With ice less than 3M, in many cases, less than 2M, even a CM/day substantially reduces the ice fairly quickly.

I think the key issue is just how incredibly fragile the pack is compared to the past.  If we go through the season without a serious heat shock, we may not hit last year's numbers.  If we do get something strong, like the cyclone of last year, combined with and influx of mid summer heat, I think it could go very badly in a hurry.

That is from a buoy at 75N in the Beaufort that deep warm layer goes from the yellows and oranges to the greens around 78N or so.  about 81N it really tails off to just .1 to .2C warmer than the fresh water layer above.






In terms of heat this is the Euro tonight in the medium range.  The GFS is actually worse.

In fact the 00z GFS from day7/8 to day 15 would be one of the strongest arctic torches in the modern ERA.




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #335 on: June 07, 2013, 11:39:07 AM »
Born From The Void,

Overland, J.E., J.A. Francis, E. Hanna, and M. Wang, 2012: The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation. Figure 2.

If you can't get hold of a copy I have the version that was sent in for accepted submission in MS Word format. I understand there were no substantial changes. I've blogged on it here:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/summer-daze-arctic-dipole.html

Ah right, should have remembered that. Thanks for the offer, but I have the paper.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #336 on: June 07, 2013, 01:48:35 PM »
The longer term CPC picture for north Alaska is above normal temperatures for the next three months.


For June, see:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif 

For JJA, see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #337 on: June 07, 2013, 03:50:04 PM »
Looking at the CT image for June 6, it seems to suggest that the persistent cyclone has been pushing the sea ice up against the coast of Alaska and eastern Russia while reducing concentration in the CAB. We even see slight reductions near the CA and Greenland where much of the MYI hangs out. It almost seems as if the cyclone is also pushing the MYI towards the Fram. With volume still not dropping fast, can we determine if much or any of the MYI has been moved into the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev seas? Could this suggest a large drop in volume this year?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

There has been a lot of discussion on other threads about the possibility of stronger cyclones this year due to the energy available as open water forms. The GAC of 2012 may be the new normal. With the current state of the ice in the CAB, could we be setting up for a final flushing of Arctic sea ice? The image is beginning to look like a large toilet bowl.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #338 on: June 07, 2013, 04:28:59 PM »
Funny thing: NSIDC SIE has consistently been running one day behind 2012 daily numbers and CT SIA has been running 6-8 days behind. No big deal, but this would imply a more solid ice cover than last year. I think it's just a matter of CT not being sensitive enough to register the full extent of those big leeds in the CAB and elsewhere. In comparing ASRM maps from this year and last, I am struck at how much more homogenous the melt is this year. Last year Beaufort, Laptev and Kara Seas were the axis of melting. This year we have these persistent varmint storms breaking up floes and casting the ice every which way.   
« Last Edit: June 07, 2013, 04:41:27 PM by frankendoodle »

Bruce Steele

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #339 on: June 07, 2013, 05:18:04 PM »
Friv, I have been watching the itp whoi buoys to see if any buoys showed upwelling of warmer water to the surface with the small cyclone last week. None of the buoys show temperature changes to the surface although the center of the cyclone didn't pass directly over any of the  dozen active buoys. There is pacific warm water within 25 meters of the surface in the Beaufort but I don't think that is unusual. The shoaling of  surface salinity in Amundsen Basin is however something unusual I believe. Two buoys # 58 and # 57 show 34.00 salinity seawater shoaled to the surface. At the same time the surface temperature of those two buoys has dropped and thickened. Maybe someone out there could speculate on where a large mass of cold very salty water came from and explain how the salinity change would affect the melting of the sea ice.                                                                                                       http://www.whoi.edu/itp/images/itp58dat3.jpg

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #340 on: June 07, 2013, 08:04:24 PM »
Funny thing: NSIDC SIE has consistently been running one day behind 2012 daily numbers and CT SIA has been running 6-8 days behind. No big deal, but this would imply a more solid ice cover than last year...

I really don't think the ice cover is more solid this year. Compare for example MODIS R04C04 for the region hit by the May Storm.
2012
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012157.terra
2013
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2013157.terra

Beaufort looks more solid this year.
2012
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2012157.terra
2013
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2013157.terra

But part of that is the fact that the Beaufort breakup started earlier last year.

Going back to day 152 (cloud issues) we see that R05C03 (Chukchi) shows a similar situation to last year.

2012
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2012152.terra
2013
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2013152.terra

The difference is the late start, and that really does seem to be due to weather, not ice conditions.

From 2000 to 2009 the average loss from Max to 31 May was about -2.0 k km^3 (SD ~0.40).
From 2010 to 2012 the average loss from Max to 31 May was about -3.7 k km^3 (SD ~0.37).
So far for 2013 the loss from Max to 31 May has been 2.736k km^3.

In other words a far greater volume loss than for any year prior to 2008 (2009 was a loss of 2.619k km^3 over the same period). So even with current retarded volume loss we're still clearly in the post 2010 regime.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #341 on: June 07, 2013, 08:45:51 PM »
I've been looking at GFS (WetterZentrale) plots from back on 15/5/13. I get the distinct impression it's the same region of low pressure that's been tumbling around in the Arctic Ocean since at least that date, waxing and waning, but clearly the same system.

One system that's been doing all this:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #342 on: June 07, 2013, 09:14:34 PM »
R04C03 seems to be the MODIS Arctic Composite cell that covers the area of most interest regarding the Arctic storm impact on MYI off the CAA. As seen in HYCOM.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Day 151
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c03.2013151.terra.367

Latest - Day 158
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c03.2013158.terra.367

First indications I've seen of a real effect.

I'll stop posting and do something else.  :-X


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #343 on: June 07, 2013, 09:32:04 PM »
I've been looking at GFS (WetterZentrale) plots from back on 15/5/13. I get the distinct impression it's the same region of low pressure that's been tumbling around in the Arctic Ocean since at least that date, waxing and waning, but clearly the same system.

Yes, it never really disappeared, did it? I can't remember seeing that, but then again, my memory isn't any good.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #344 on: June 07, 2013, 11:05:10 PM »
While still colder than most recent years.  The vortex slides closer to Russia.  However.  Unlike almost every June 2007-2012.  The High Pressure(Surface) and (Geopotential Heights) above the surface are not the dominant feature yet.  The Cyclone is.  This is not better for ice melt VS the high pressure being dominant. 

I think as the snow cover over the ice sheet melts the next week.  We will see the cyclone weaken and heights rise along the CAB. 

Even so the ice melt is going to explode basically as of today on the Pacific side spreading into the Arctic Basin.  in addition to the other areas already getting hit.




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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #345 on: June 07, 2013, 11:39:16 PM »
The melt in the Kara the last three days has been tremendous. As we can see below.  But compared to 2012 it's not even close. 

Last year all of that extra open water is sucking up energy which can easily be distributed into the rest of the arctic.  It also inherently warms the local atmosphere. 

Top image is three days ago. Middle is today.  bottom is last year on this date.





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #346 on: June 08, 2013, 01:55:58 AM »
Not as far along for sure, but not sure it isn't being made up for elsewhere.  On IJIS, if you do an overlay of 2012/06/07 over the current extent, there's a lot of area covered in 2012 that is open now.

I'll also be interested to watch what the blow torch does.  It may, or may not catch up fast. Or melt elsewhere may become crucial.  We shall see.
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wili

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #347 on: June 08, 2013, 02:11:47 AM »
jdallen, I thought you had a really good point above about the possibility that the broken-up ice this year, agitated as it has been by this long-lasting cyclone, could be stirring up warmer, saltier water from below up to the surface.

I don't know if there is any evidence that this has been happening anywhere yet, but it certainly seems a reasonable possibility to me, one I hadn't considered this spring. I remember discussions of the phenomenon during the great Arctic cyclone of 2012. Thanks for reminding us.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #348 on: June 08, 2013, 02:29:50 AM »


NSIDC show's 2013 dropping about 250K the last couple of days and 160K one day drop.

2013 has had some peripheral melt help it keep close.

It will be interesting to see how quickly open water opens up on the Pacific side the next week.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #349 on: June 08, 2013, 02:39:18 AM »
I have two questions, the first for Friv:

1.  What is the earliest that the NW Passage opened, and could it be even earlier this year??

2.  Does anyone have any clue as to why IJIS has not updated for two consecutive days?

Thanks
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