Churhill, MB is up to 79F which smashes the old record of 76F set in 2006.
Tomorrow's record of 73F will get obliterated which was set in 2008.
The day after won't be of 82F set in 2001.
Some high clouds look like they won't let temps rise into the low to mid 80s.
Still might hit 81F or so.
But still...it's near 80F. Nothing like a 30F above normal day with a stiff SW wind to roast some ice.
A lot of you guys follow bigger picture stuff. I prefer the follow the weather method.
I have seen many post's wondering about the slow start to the melt season. The answer is the weather.
The most fascinating thing for me is in a warming climate weather extremes become more likely and they tend to sit on the side of warmth.
This method has made me the most successful predictor of short and medium term ice conditions on Amercianwx. But most of it, until last year people let emotional well-wishing supersede bias.
I am convinced if we don't see a massive Dipole all Summer 2012 won't be caught. The heat in the water last Summer over the Beaufort and Kara early on did major damage and those regions are falling way behind vs last year in that regard. We will see.
The most recent MODIS image from today
Open water there isn't closing up again and will expand rapidly over the next week.
This area is going to be warm for a while. But it's more than that.
The water albedo is very low and the Hudson has recently shown it can warm up to 8C min upwards of 15C along the edges over the entire Bay in-spite of convective overturning.
When I first got into this I couldn't believe the Hudson historically was so much colder and in the most recent 5-7 years has been warming dramatically in Summer.
This is a big feedback even if it only matters a few months of the year.
the Hudson protects regions to it's North and NE even if it's only a little bit because it will obviously cause air-masses to cool when it's ice covered. Even water since it's not that warm.
Come mid to late August a Hudson Bay like we have seen recently 4-10C above normal has an SLP go NW of it into the Western CA will have less of an effect on the warm air-mass. Since solar insolation at 55-60N in August is still very strong.
Just imagine if the Hudson wasn't there. Would GIS even be the same right now? How many glaciers North and East of the Hudson will still be there.
For example. Look at the Air-mass that models crapped the bed on over Central Canada. Solar Insolation is very powerful right now. This ball of heat peaks out at 20C 925mb, 13-15C 850mb.
H5 heights rise big time over the next 2 days. Ample Sunshine all over the region and yet the airmass from West to East over the Hudson get's modified dramatically.
Even though large scale features say the winds should be screaming from S to N over the Hudson. They don't some where as they get over the ice pack from the surface first upwards on a slope to the East, it's like some kind of cold front only over the Hudson forms.
I have seen this 3 or 4 times. Then in August under the same situation winds stay consistent without the ice I guess created a massive temperature difference, most notably near the surface.
It's 80F at the shore and 35F 50 miles East over the ice.
Amazingly neat.
