Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion

[ktonine]

The Sea Ice Concentration maps are really quite unique right now.  Has anyone ever seen before a full circle of lower concentration surrounding the pole with all the higher concentration areas pushed into the periphery?  The 'eye' of the storm even has a little spot of high concentration right in the center of the low concentration.

It's almost as if the ice is preparing to melt from the inside out



AMSR2 7 June 2013

[deep octopus]

Nunavut "heat wave" to continue well into next week. Taloyoak (in the center of the CAA) showing highs of 9 C and lows generally above freezing for three consecutive days next week, including a 12 C heating on Saturday, giving us an impressive warm anomaly.
http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-8_metric_e.html

Hudson Bay is a goner. Coral Harbour up on the northern central part of Hudson Bay is forecast to see multiple days of highs in the teens and lows hovering above freezing through at least next Thursday, giving us a generally +5 to +7 degree C daily temperature anomaly.
http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-9_metric_e.html

[jdallen]

@willi - thanks, but for sure, I'm just a newbie here, and not specifically trained in climate science.

That said, in the discussion, it hasn't been made clear yet whether the cyclone(s) have really stirred up the halo/thermoclines yet.  At least, the buoy's haven't been showing anything particularly dramatic.

But then, it may not take that much, and we don't know what's been happening "out of sight" of the our sample points for salinity.

Regardless of salinity and water temperatures, the general "atomization" of the ice can't help things.  I'm reminded of pebbles tumbled in a stream; in most areas, it looks like the floes have all been rounded off, with the interstitial zones filled in with thin ice or nilas.

@oldleatheck - I've been wondering about IJIS not updating the last couple of days as well.  I'm quite atwitch at wanting to see the newest numbers.

[jdallen]

@DeepOctopus (or anyone else, for that matter) - any thoughts on what over-all affect the prompt melt out of the lower latitude areas (like Baffin & Hudsons bay) may have on the over-all pattern?  Seems to me, mostly indirect.

[Frivolousz21]

I have two questions, the first for Friv:

1.  What is the earliest that the NW Passage opened, and could it be even earlier this year??

2.  Does anyone have any clue as to why IJIS has not updated for two consecutive days?

Thanks

I would assume last year or 2011 in early August.  It has slowly trended earlier every year.  It was just 5-6 years ago that skeptics and deniers would say 2007 was a huge fluke.  It's happened every year since.

2007 was the first year it's been "ice free" in modern times.

[Neven]

*kicks himself for still not having noted all the dates of opening of the NWP and NSR*

My guess would be that the NWP opened earliest in 2010, because the ice melted out mega-fast. Last year seemed much slower, with arches at both ends, but then the ice started cracking in the middle and the whole passage was flushed in practically two weeks. That was amazing, and I think we're going to see the same this year.

[Shared Humanity]

The CAB is certainly showing the loss in area.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

It will be interesting to see what it does for the next couple of weeks with such low concentrations around the pole. Is the cyclone still expected to continue?

[ChrisReynolds]

May PIOMAS gridded data is out. I'll blog later after a mid day sleep (an essential luxury). But here's a teaser.

Year   Below 2m    Above 2m
2007   8.135   14.814
2008   6.940   17.031
2009   7.217   16.539
2010   6.803   14.317
2011   10.825   9.274
2012   9.301   10.739
2013   10.908   9.270

Volumes of ice above and below 2m thick. In May the ice remains thinner in 2013 than in 2012. 

[Neven]

The CAB is certainly showing the loss in area.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

It will be interesting to see what it does for the next couple of weeks with such low concentrations around the pole. Is the cyclone still expected to continue?

You bet. I'm writing an ASI update today and the forecast is for that cyclone to keep going and going and going, making for a nice dipole.

That cyclone has got me puzzled quite a bit...

[Apocalypse4Real]

While we are seeing temps heat up in the CAA, the anomalies are primarily in that area and the Barents and Kara Seas. To illustrate, attached are three images:

1) ESRL-PSD NH Surface Temp Anomaly for 6 June 2013.

2) ESRL-PSD NH Surface Temp Anomaly for 1-6 June 2013.

3) ESRL-PSD NH Surface Temp Anomaly for 1-6 June 2012.

We have different termperatures conditions in this June compares to last which may slow ice melt - we will see.

[deep octopus]

Wow, yeah, just look at the CT map for 6/7/13. Those dark violets are turning into bright fuschias, and staying that way. This is getting interesting.

[jdallen]

@A4R - Wow.

Looking at the 1-6/13 vs 1-6/12 graphics, it looks like the geography of the anomalies has *inverted*.

Key areas to illustrate - central Siberia just west of the Urals
                                    - NE Canada/Quebec/Labrador
                                    - NW Canada/Yukon/SW CAA
                                    - Northern China
                                    - USA Upper Great Plains/Lake Superior basin
                                    - Northern Europe/Scandanavia

Jet stream changes, I'll wager.

[SATire]

Regarding SIA and U-Bremen concentration loss in CAB: In our new concentration maps from U-Hamburg and made usefull by Wipneus we can see that in higher resolution and measure SIA on our own with simple tools like gimp.
But we can also see some smear-like structures which are due to water vapour (as mentioned by scientist Lars in Neven's blog - New map on the block). I think we have to wait until that "smear-features" fade away, since they are the reason for a measured SIA-loss, which is not there in reality. The good thing is, that the "smear" is clearly visible and we are warned by this feature. The bad thing is, that our own SIA measurements can not work around that issue and are not better than CT or U-Bremen measurements, therefore.

[dorlomin]

It's almost as if the ice is preparing to melt from the inside out

Dont get foxed by over reading those maps. Wind can be pushing ice around and surface melt can show up as no ice even when the ice is thick enough to last all season.

The Arctic is a capricious beast, prone to fool any who think they know what she will do next.

[ChrisReynolds]

May 2013 minus 2012.



Feb to May 2013 minus 2012.



While the late winter was not much colder than 2012 (except Barents), May 2013 was substantially colder than 2012 over much of the pack. This is the reason for the late melt. Ice thickness isn't the reason, due to the overall winter pattern. And as PIOMAS shows 2013 is generally thinner than 2012 in May.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/may-2013-status-part-3-new-gridded.html

Regards the patterns of low concentration, you need any pattern to persist for at least three days before you can pay any attention, as Neven keeps reminding people.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's an animation from the last strongly +ve AO period in early summer, 1994. It spans from May 20th to June 9th.
The lows are generally deeper and broader than this year, but with a little less ridging to really tighten up the pressure gradient at times.



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php

Not much of an impact on the central Arctic ice, as you might expect

[Neven]

Here's an animation from the last strongly +ve AO period in early summer, 1994.

Thanks for that, BFTV. Another interesting thing IMO concerning this current event, is that the AO is neither explicitly +ve or -ve since the cyclone was born:

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's an animation from the last strongly +ve AO period in early summer, 1994.

Thanks for that, BFTV. Another interesting thing IMO concerning this current event, is that the AO is neither +ve or -ve since the cyclone was born:

Yep, that's interesting.
The difference, I think, is this year we still have the slack jet stream and frequent ridging making it's way into the Arctic and influencing the AO, despite this persistent low pressure.
Working out the cause of the slow jet is the tricky part. It doesn't seem to be down to a reduced thickness gradient anyway, with the Arctic being quite cool lately.

[Neven]

Arctic sea ice loss influences the jet stream mostly in Autumn and Winter. In Spring and Summer it's anomalies in snow cover that run the show. And there's a big one this year in Eurasia. I think this is playing a key role in this cyclone, but darn it, I still don't understand anything about atmospheric patterns. Maybe I never will.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic sea ice loss influences the jet stream mostly in Autumn and Winter. In Spring and Summer it's anomalies in snow cover that run the show. And there's a big one this year in Eurasia. I think this is playing a key role in this cyclone, but darn it, I still don't understand anything about atmospheric patterns. Maybe I never will.

The Francis and Vavrus paper showed that April, May and June is the time when there is the least influence on the jet.



With so many variables, it's almost impossible to wrap your mind around what's causing what.

I think a study looking at the rate and timing of snow cover loss and its influence on the summer patterns would be useful. Similar to the October Eurasian snow cover increase rate and the winter AO link investigated by Cohen. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf

[ChrisReynolds]

The Summer (JJA) pattern is suspected as being caused by snow cover anomalies, partly because it starts too early to be likely to be driven by sea ice. And snow cover anomalies are happening around the region of the Jetstream, which seems to have a role in the Greenland GPH ridge at the centre of the summer pattern.

[Apocalypse4Real]

One other factor that we have been discussing in relation to ice melt is SST's. Attached is the SST anomalies for June 7, 2013 vs June 7 2012.

What follows is the SST Anomalies for

1) June 7 2012
2) June 7 2013
3) June 7 2013 vs 2012 differences. These help illustrate where SST's are higher or lower compared to prior years. It seems that there is considerably more heat in the Barents, Kara and Norwegian Seas compared to 2012. The same appears true for areas of the Bering Sea. The colder anomalies in the Beaufort may be related to this year's sea ice coverage.

[Neven]

Thanks for that info, A4R. I had already noticed warmer waters near Bering Strait this year, where SSTs were particularly low last year (but didn't seem to matter for the Beaufort/Chukchi massacre).

[Apocalypse4Real]

The warm North Pacific waters seem to be ready to increase warming in Alaska, and increase precipitation - most likely as rain. The following are the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation chances for Alaska as above or below normal created June 7, 2013.

This will likely have an impact on the Beaufort Sea ice melt, given that these temps likely spread over into Canada as well.

1) 6-10 day temps
2) 8-14 day temps
3) 6-10 day precip
4) 8-14 day precip

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/index.php

[ChrisReynolds]

HYCOM - check out Kara in one week's time:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013060818_2013061600_035_arcticictn.001.gif

Definitely a region worth watching, as has been noted here previously.

The animated gif is very impressive.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

[CraigsIsland]

HYCOM - check out Kara in one week's time:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013060818_2013061600_035_arcticictn.001.gif

Definitely a region worth watching, as has been noted here previously.

The animated gif is very impressive.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

definitely impressive; also think MYI being projected to go through fram

[Bob Wallace]

HYCOM - check out Kara in one week's time:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013060818_2013061600_035_arcticictn.001.gif

Definitely a region worth watching, as has been noted here previously.

The animated gif is very impressive.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

The Kara and areas east....

Should save this one and return in a week to see how well they called it.

[Neven]

Lovely Dipole:

[Frivolousz21]

There are signs of a crippling heat pulse could be priming to roll over the Eastern Laptev/ESB into the Chukchi.

[Frivolousz21]

[Siffy]

For some one who is very much a new comer to sea ice information could you give some insights to what this image shows exactly?

[Frivolousz21]

For some one who is very much a new comer to sea ice information could you give some insights to what this image shows exactly?

It is a snapshot of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi.  Russia is on the right.  Alaska on the left.

Below is a full shot of the Arctic from yesterday with the area highlighted.  I posted it because it's currently being hit by Southerly winds and Sunny skies with 850mb temps in the 2-6C range over the Eastern Part of the ESB and Chukchi.  Surface temps over Eastern Russia are generally in the 12-18C range for their aftrnoon and above freezing at night. So relatively weak Southerly winds will help carry heat into the ice.  We can quickly see the ice lose it's whitish color to a blueish hue denoting melting on the surface. 

This is going to rapidly spread into the Canadian side by tomorrow.  While warm and sunny.  It's still as of now not near as warm as most recent years.  Not sure why.  Last year at this time had a major Dipole Anomaly, huge Pacific torch and almost no cold left in the arctic.  This year is way different.

[Frivolousz21]

Model's are struggling to resolve the potential big torch later on after day 5.






The GFS develop's an HP over the ESB and SLP over the Western Laptev to unleash the flood gates of the airmass after it sit's and builds over East Central Siberia for a few days.

In addition to the 15-20C 850's pressing over the ice pack.  Surface High temps with a Southerly flow would be reaching the low 80s all the way to the coast.  Obviously this would cause some incredible melt rates over a short period.  Given this area will be snow free on the ice when this happens.  WIth open water as well.  20-30CM a day would be reasonable.  This comes as the Canadian side methodically heat's up.  This is no where near a lock as the models show they have no idea whats up with so much going on.

The latest Euro doesn't wait as long and the first pulse is not as scorching as the GFS has.




The 00z GEM is like the the EURO but warmer. 

[deep octopus]

Aside from buoys, the town of Tiksi on the Laptev coast of Russia might be a good proxy for surface temperatures around the Laptev/Eastern Siberia region, given the few number of weather stations in all of Siberia, especially on the coast.

Wunderground indicates that temperatures will remain marginally above freezing (for both highs and lows) through Thursday, ranging between 34 degrees F and 50 degrees F (1 C and 10 C, respectively), then begin a fierce jump starting Friday, reaching 77 F (25 C), and a different forecast that goes further than Wunderground's timeline shows a possibility of 70 F (21 C) through the following Monday. This is not unlike what we've been seeing in Nunavut recently, and may be even warmer.

[Apocalypse4Real]

The US Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above normal temperatures for north Alaska from now through November, 2013 as a 40-50% probability. Attached is the June through August, 2013 forecast as a sample. Note that the lower continental US is expecting wide areas of above normal temps as well.

The long term seasonal north Alaska seasonal forecasts for February through August, 2014 has a 40% probability of above normal temperatures.

If this holds true, then there is a greater chance of melting through this summer and fall and an anticipated similar pattern in 2014.

See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

[Laurent]

It seems that the temperature at 30 mbar is a record of the last 5 years. On the ground we are seeing the range (5-10°c) pointing is noise. (click on the gif to see the animation)

[frankendoodle]

I regards to those of you who have postulated that the low sea ice concentrations shown by AMSR2 are a case of sensor error due to water vapor, I have the following to say in retort:
1) The low concentration areas north of 80N in question have been visually verifiable via MODIS images since they started appearing in late May. I won't bother posting comparisons MODIS-AMSR images because you all have been posting these images all week. Due to cloud cover you can never quite see all of them at once but enough of them have been visible to rule out sensor error.
2) The reason these "blotches" are not staying in the same place or the same shape is because of the wind speeds involved. Since late May large segments of the pack have seen ice speed and drift of 25-30cm/s. Once again, please see previous posts on this thread. 25-30 cm/s is about 1kph and this has been going on nearly non stop for two weeks.
3) I don't see these as leeds being caused by melt. The CAB has been fractured into floes ~ 1000km2 (rough pixel estimate) and smaller in size due mostly to mechanical sheering. While they will be more vulnerable later to traditional melt sources, right now they are loosing mass from good ole fashioned erosion.   

[Apocalypse4Real]

The Summer (JJA) pattern is suspected as being caused by snow cover anomalies, partly because it starts too early to be likely to be driven by sea ice. And snow cover anomalies are happening around the region of the Jetstream, which seems to have a role in the Greenland GPH ridge at the centre of the summer pattern.

Earlier in the thread we were discussing the impact of early snow melt on the ridging and the CAB low.

The following NOAA snow and ice map for Eurasia for 10 June 2013 gives corroboration to the accelerated snow melt.

[jdallen]

Seems to me, the reaction to that image should be... "What snow?"

[misfratz]

The CAB is certainly showing the loss in area.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

It will be interesting to see what it does for the next couple of weeks with such low concentrations around the pole. Is the cyclone still expected to continue?

From a quick tour of the regional graphs it looks as though the central Arctic is the only region that is ahead of last year's melt.

Some of the open spaces are growing big enough to show up as blue pixels on the AMSR2 image for June 10th.

Every melt year is different, that's for sure.

[wanderer]

Looking at the latest thickness forecast:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Could we see a huge gap in the ice sheet from Siberia right to North Pole at the end of June?

[SATire]

SIA is now quite clearly dropped in CAB in the map from yesterday - at least at Russian side there are a lot dark shades of grey which look different from the "water vapour smear". SIA loss determined from that map using e.g. gimp is quite impressive. The dark areas in Beaufort are not that clearly real. https://sites.google.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/

[pdjakow]

GFS model forecast for Arctic (T2M, MSLP, T850, WIND10)
http://meteomodel.pl/gfsarct/T2M/00

Low level pressure will stay with us at least for 8 days.
http://meteomodel.pl/gfsarct/CIS/CIS_47.png
http://meteomodel.pl/gfsarct/CIS/CIS_65.png

[ChrisReynolds]

Looking at the latest thickness forecast:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Could we see a huge gap in the ice sheet from Siberia right to North Pole at the end of June?

Dunno, but it's exciting! 

Note that often as new weather forecasts come in the HYCOM projections back off their most aggressive scenarios. This time it just keeps getting worse.

[deep octopus]

No doubt the margin of error expands as one looks to the last days of a forecast... However... Wetterzentrale is showing a tentacle of very warm moving right into the dead center of the CAB by June 18th, with a 10 degree C bubble right over the north pole. These are 850 mb temperatures, by the way, not the surface (which for all we know could be several degrees higher still.)

[Nightvid Cole]

No doubt the margin of error expands as one looks to the last days of a forecast... However... Wetterzentrale is showing a tentacle of very warm moving right into the dead center of the CAB by June 18th, with a 10 degree C bubble right over the north pole. These are 850 mb temperatures, by the way, not the surface (which for all we know could be several degrees higher still.)

Actually the surface doesn't get very far above freezing since it is constrained by melting (phase change fixes temperature) until there is open water. This is an inversion: near 0 deg C at surface, 10 deg C at 850 mb. Although the adiabatic lapse rate is always > 0 , the actual lapse rate can go negative, there is no physical contradiction.

[ChrisReynolds]

Deep Octopus,

"These are 850 mb temperatures, by the way, not the surface (which for all we know could be several degrees higher still.)"

The surface will be pinned down to zero due to the presence of ice, but the intrusions of warm air should still aid melt, e.g. mixing and downwelling infra-red. The way I interpret the 850mb temperature is as an indicator of warm air moving in.

[Frivolousz21]

Euro and GFS in strong agreement.  Euro show's Pacific under big heat until day 10 after day 4-5.  With the smaller torching taking place now.





Last year June 16th-25th had a vortex and ice loss in the Basin "slowed" to say the least.  2007 had to deal with a lot of thicker ice.

If 2013 has any shot of catching up it will have to take advantage of this period.  Because it will be harder pressed to torch harder than 2012 did after.

[Nightvid Cole]

Is it just me, or do we have holes in the ice pack @ 87N 100E    now
We saw this in 2010, but only in August and September, not June!

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

[icebgone]

Nightvid, Looks like an early opening Laptev Bite caused by warm water being deflected upwards by the shelf that extends into this area.  It is a localized artifact of the undersea landforms rather than a more generalized upwelling.  The early opening is almost certainly linked to the combination of rotten ice and the persistent cyclone.