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ktonine

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #550 on: June 23, 2013, 08:08:24 PM »
Since HYCOM is a Navy model and probably intended initially as an operational forecast, it seems to be a bit cautious in its thickness estimates in an absolute sense; i.e., most people believe it overestimates thickness.

Bearing that in mind, the ice may well be thinner than HYCOM shows.  But year-to-year comparisons are still valid relative to each other.

The big question remains - are the area and extent numbers right now just too large for 2013 to catch up with record minimal extent years?  Or is the overall condition of the ice pack such that the next two weeks of high insolation will lead to large enough losses that 2013 catches up?

That question remains open and while I believe 2013 will catch up - I wouldn't put any significant amount of money on that belief.

ghoti

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #551 on: June 23, 2013, 08:09:39 PM »
I think they have traditionally overestimated thickness. This isn't an issue for comparing years though.

For example Buoy 2013C says ice is 3.5m thick at the tip of Elsmere Island where navy thickness shows 5m+ thickness. Buoys 2012H and 2012L show 2.25m and 3.25m in navy zone of 3.5 to 4m

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #552 on: June 23, 2013, 08:30:06 PM »
ghoti, I had a look at the icebridge data with a resolution below 100m and there is much spread within thickness. It looks like a floe could easily have 2m thickness, but the next one - older with more ridges - might has 12m. But what I believe is scientists tend to install the buoys on the thickest ice floe they can find within the target area.

Btw. the Navy model has area and thickness, did they ever publish volume?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #553 on: June 23, 2013, 08:48:02 PM »
That question remains open and while I believe 2013 will catch up - I wouldn't put any significant amount of money on that belief.

You put your finger on the pulse of things with this, ktonine.

The problem is one of volatility.  And I think that volatility has its root in two things.  (1) the catastrophic (in geological terms) reduction in MYI area, and (2) the corresponding over-all increase in energy being absorbed seasonally.

(1) is the buffer.  In previous years, there were many times when you would see unusually warm conditions, and there would be sharp anomalies; however, the ability of the system to buffer these fluctuations was much higher.   While trivial in size compared to the Antarctic sheets, Arctic ice (in particular, MYI) still presented a huge seasonal energy repository.  The loss in any given year was fractionally a far smaller part of the systems total budget.  You need only look to the decline of seasonal minimum extent to see this.  In 1979, that number was upwards of 9 million square kilometers.  In 2012, it was under 4.  The actual surviving MYI was about 2/3 of that value.

(2) provides the volatility.  With less of a reserve, relatively small variations in heat input will have proportionally greater effect.   Thus, with thinner ice, more widely dispersed, local weather and sea water temperature changes can and do have more dramatic results, both positive and negative.  Last winter's "re-freeze" is a case in point - more new ice was created than previously recorded in any year on record.  While WUWT and others are quick to use that as evidence of recovery, it in fact is very, VERY disturbing evidence supporting the exact opposite.

So, to summarize - as you point out, considering current conditions and trying to predict what the Arctic is about to do, even the smartest of us are whistling in the dark.  We're looking at a candle in a breeze, and wondering just how hard it will blow.
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ggelsrinc

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #554 on: June 23, 2013, 09:04:41 PM »
Since HYCOM is a Navy model and probably intended initially as an operational forecast, it seems to be a bit cautious in its thickness estimates in an absolute sense; i.e., most people believe it overestimates thickness.

Bearing that in mind, the ice may well be thinner than HYCOM shows.  But year-to-year comparisons are still valid relative to each other.

The big question remains - are the area and extent numbers right now just too large for 2013 to catch up with record minimal extent years?  Or is the overall condition of the ice pack such that the next two weeks of high insolation will lead to large enough losses that 2013 catches up?

That question remains open and while I believe 2013 will catch up - I wouldn't put any significant amount of money on that belief.

When I look at the conditions of the arctic sea ice right now and project into the future, I look at regions. The 2013 arctic sea ice minimum has to be in only certain regions. Some of those regions aren't even in the arctic and we know they won't have sea ice at the minimum. Some regions will melt out and could only have sea ice during the minimum if it's exported there, like from CAB. Kara has more sea ice than last year, but that isn't a safe place to be sea ice, so I expect it to melt and if there is any left for it to be a CAB export. Beaufort is another place to watch. I simply analyze which regions I expect to have sea ice and which regions I don't. I then focus on present condition of the sea ice in those regions of interest and what events will happen in the near future to influence those regions. It's like a "the sea ice is in this condition and the weather outlook looks like this" analysis, region by region. I also pay a lot of attention to clouds and other white surfaces, like GIS, glaciers in the CAA and snow cover near the Arctic Ocean. CAB has not been looking good. You have to watch a region for awhile to see what's under the cloud cover.

Juan C. García

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #555 on: June 23, 2013, 09:14:14 PM »
....well, well - judging by the ice area and extent figures this year, I wasn't too concerned about the ice breaking any records, but then I had a look at the ice thickness maps here at HYCOM/CICE and compared to the same time last year, it looks pretty bad!
Just eyeballing the images, the extent and area are above last year but the 'interior' looks pretty rotten. There appears to be less thick, old ice and the rest looks considerably thinner, than last year. So, given a bit of prolonged irradiance, things could get decidedly dodgy by late August/September  :P
What do you guys think - are these thickness images reliable? Are they a good indicator of things to come?
Hi Jim:
  • Last year we had less ice on Hudson Bay and Baffin/Newfoundland Seas, but it is this important? It is not. I expect this ice to disappear anyway.
  • Last year we had less ice on the Kara Sea. Does someone expect to have some of this ice at the end of the melt season? I don´t expect so.
  • Last year we had some MYI blocking the entrance of warm water to the Chukchi Sea. Now we don´t. Will this factor be important on the following months? Yes, it could be.
  • Last year we had more ice on the east coast of Greenland. This year there is some talking that the tail on Fram Strait could disappear. Would this mean that we can have some MYI export from Fram Strait, when there is not too much MYI left? Yes, it could.
  • And last but not least, the ice at the Arctic Basin seems weak. Are these thickness images reliable? I have several reasons to believe in them. We know that we had a persistent Arctic cyclone (PAC 2013) that made some damage to the ice and several sources (AMSR2 Bremen and NSIDC concentration Images) have being showing us the weakness for at least a week. So why not believe in this weakness? We know that SIE images can be misleading, so it is better to trust concentration images.
So anything can happen. The September SIA can end being above 2012 value or under it. But the true is that the SIE and SIA values that are measured right now can be very misleading when we are evaluating the real weakness of the actual Arctic sea ice.


According to NSIDC, there is much more SIE at 2013 that it was at 2012


According to NSIDC, the 2013 Arctic sea ice looks stonger than 2012 and almost like 1979-2000 average.


But are we able to see Arctic sea ice weakness in their concentration map?
« Last Edit: June 23, 2013, 09:27:30 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

ghoti

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #556 on: June 23, 2013, 09:30:19 PM »
Is that concentration map showing ice all the way down the St Lawrence river to Quebec City? There is no way there is ice there now.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #557 on: June 23, 2013, 09:36:47 PM »
No wonder extent isn't dropping... Compare this map with Worldview pics of the East of Greenland or even Kara...

Juan C. García

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #558 on: June 23, 2013, 09:44:30 PM »
Hi, Ghoti and Wanderer.
I prefer to see Bremen AMSR2 as a first view of ASI. Just want to express that I do not trust NSIDC SIE graphs to have a good feeling of what is happening on.


http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Whit

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #559 on: June 23, 2013, 10:24:29 PM »
Counldn't the fragmentation actually contribute to larger extent for a while?

Grab a disk shaped icecube with an elliptical cross-section. Grab another disk of the same volume, but make it uniformly thick, like a slab. Then grab the same volume of ice and smash it to pieces with a hammer. Put them in a separate glasses with a slightly larger diameter then the disks and see what happens.

The crushed ice will keep its area and extent longer than the compact pieces due to being more easily dispersed, but it will be the first one to go completely.

The distribution of the ice this season is somewhere between the slab and the crushed ice in my analogy. More ice has been pushed towards the margins, where its chance of survival is rather small.

Analogies from an amateur certainly has limited usability, especially when comparing the Arctic to an ice-cube in a glass of water. But I would not be surprised if we saw more and more of Barbers feedback entering the stage from now on.
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #560 on: June 24, 2013, 01:18:53 AM »
Has anyone here read the paper (by Perovich et al.  )

Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the
summer of 2007
 
?

I suspect that this diminished concentration on the Russian side of the Arctic (and into the central Arctic Ocean) spells serious trouble. Consider that in 2007 the low concentration didn't emerge until mid- or even  late July. This year it emerged in mid- June , giving an extra month for the ocean to soak up the sun. (Sheryl Crow, anyone?) Furthermore, this month is at the worst possible time, when the sun is at its strongest for the year.

Perovich et al. show a bottom melt exceeding 2 meters in their graph, and that was when the low concentration started only in the third week of July. Does this mean the upper ocean will warm enough this year over most of the Arctic to melt 4+ meters of ice?

Over most of the area in question we only have 1 - 2 meters to begin with.

A few weeks ago I voted in the poll for area and extent to be slightly above last year. Now I think they might crash down to half of that. Too late to change my vote, though  :(

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #561 on: June 24, 2013, 01:31:42 AM »
Has anyone here read the paper (by Perovich et al.  )

Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the
summer of 2007
 
?

No, but I've seen an older paper in a similar vein, which discussed melt rates and the effect of lateral melting on sea ice.


I suspect that this diminished concentration on the Russian side of the Arctic (and into the central Arctic Ocean) spells serious trouble.


We will see.  It won't help, that much is certain.  It *seems* like there are more and more in the way of factors stacking up against the ice, in spite of the "slow" start.  July will confirm or refute those conclusions.  Personally, I'm pessimistic.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #562 on: June 24, 2013, 02:26:05 AM »
The models forecast a stout reverse dipole.

This is cloudy and cool over the pacific side and and an HP Over the Kara/Laptev/Atlantic side.

Where it will be Sunny and warm.

If this doesn't destroy the mushy ice.  It will be devastating for a shot at a new min.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #563 on: June 24, 2013, 08:02:11 AM »
gfs is more liberal with the heat and sun with the reverse Dipole.


We will see how the "mush" ice holds up.

This place is dead.  Let's not stop analyzing because predictions aren't looking to hot now. :)

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #564 on: June 24, 2013, 08:34:48 AM »
Not too sure about a dipole "rescue" for the ice...  Checking Koeln, temps along the NW passage up to the Beaufort and along the Alaska coast are all reaching the low to mid 20's.

Kara looks to be heating up as well - night time temps right now are in the low/mid teens along large stretches coastal Europe & Siberia, and running up almost as high, in particular to the west. Question is, what effect this will have on cloud cover over the adjacent regions in the Arctic.

Sunlight will be the key, but I'd not rule out general stirring of the sea, due to ice movement, wind and the generally chaotic state of the ice.

I'd also note that cloud cover represents a net release of energy, especially if it is the result of moisture being pulled in to the arctic from its periphery.  Condensation represents a substantial transfer of heat. 
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Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #565 on: June 24, 2013, 09:23:53 AM »
Euro backing off a bit of reverse dipole.

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ktonine

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #566 on: June 24, 2013, 03:27:51 PM »
Southern Beaufort Sea / Banks Island June 24, 2012



Compared to 2012, there's a lot of energy NOT being absorbed in the Beaufort Sea this year.

It's hard to see how 2013 can match 2012 with very little open water in the Beaufort.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #567 on: June 24, 2013, 03:41:56 PM »
It's hard to see how 2013 can match 2012 with very little open water in the Beaufort.

See also "What the buoys are telling us". What do you reckon?
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #568 on: June 24, 2013, 04:30:31 PM »
Jim,

What the buoys are telling us...?

Here are examples,

1) O-Buoy 8 webcam photo, 24 June, 2013, 1411 hours....

2) O-Buoy 7 webcam photo, 24 June, 2013, 1411 hours...

Seems like a healthy melt and webcam 8 is about to hit the water.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #569 on: June 24, 2013, 07:58:13 PM »
Southern Beaufort Sea / Banks Island June 24, 2012



Compared to 2012, there's a lot of energy NOT being absorbed in the Beaufort Sea this year.

It's hard to see how 2013 can match 2012 with very little open water in the Beaufort.

A sufficiently large area with reduced ice concentration can easily absorb far more excess energy than a much smaller area of open water. Also this energy more efficiently melts ice rather than going into heating up near-surface water or air (or evaporating water for that matter.)

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #570 on: June 24, 2013, 08:40:23 PM »
The 12z GFS holds a cold pool over the arctic basin into July.

Cloudy and cold with relatively light winds ain't bringing the big melt.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #571 on: June 24, 2013, 09:31:08 PM »
The 12z GFS holds a cold pool over the arctic basin into July.

Cloudy and cold with relatively light winds ain't bringing the big melt.

The ice seems so rotten now, even an unusually cold, cloudy summer might just make the records from last year be 'only' shattered, rather than pulverized...

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #572 on: June 25, 2013, 01:11:50 AM »
I'd suggest comparing concentration year over year, between 2013 and other select.  That tells a different story than just looking at extent.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #573 on: June 25, 2013, 03:02:02 AM »
This sounds ominous! A ridge over Alaska expected to produce record-shattering heat next week. The ridge extends all the way into the CONUS! And H85 temps are off the charts!

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 TO 60 HOURS AND THEN
START DIVERGING AFTER THAT. ALL MODELS INITIALIZE TOO COOL ALOFT.
HUGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL
BE THE SAME RIDGE THAT IS BRINGING RECORD HEAT TO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE LOWER 48.


RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL THIS WEEK OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR OF ALASKA WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVER RECORDED ARE BEING ADVERTISED
TO OCCUR.

ClimateChange

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #574 on: June 25, 2013, 03:04:25 AM »
I wonder what effect all of this heat in the high-latitude land masses will have on the Arctic. I figure this extreme heat will cause river temperatures leading into the Arctic to reach all-time record highs. Will these warm river discharges lead to enhanced ice melting?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #575 on: June 25, 2013, 03:53:52 AM »
I wonder what effect all of this heat in the high-latitude land masses will have on the Arctic. I figure this extreme heat will cause river temperatures leading into the Arctic to reach all-time record highs. Will these warm river discharges lead to enhanced ice melting?

It's really hard to tell.  For all of the blistering heat, the transfer from air to ice is still a fraction of that offered by sun and sea water.  Biggest impact will likely be to chase off the last remaining snow over the ice. If the heat causes a persisting high to form permitting greater sun, that would be important.  If that sun, and heat are over the Beaufort, then we may see a second cliff.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #576 on: June 25, 2013, 05:12:48 AM »
The 12z GFS holds a cold pool over the arctic basin into July.

Cloudy and cold with relatively light winds ain't bringing the big melt.

The ice seems so rotten now, even an unusually cold, cloudy summer might just make the records from last year be 'only' shattered, rather than pulverized...

There is no guarantee that ice averaging 1.5M thick will melt out where as ice 3-4 meters thick under similar conditions.



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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #577 on: June 25, 2013, 07:13:12 AM »
THE HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED ARE BEING ADVERTISED TO OCCUR.

It would be great to have some context, a source, a link or a date in parallel. Google finds nothing.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #578 on: June 25, 2013, 08:11:36 AM »
Might CC be meaning this, Arcticio¬?

ECMWF models some impressive ridging end of the 10-day range. Also, the SLP charts show remarkably little contrast. As Hans Verbeek suggested on the blog, is the AO dead or something?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #579 on: June 25, 2013, 08:19:35 AM »
I wonder what effect all of this heat in the high-latitude land masses will have on the Arctic. I figure this extreme heat will cause river temperatures leading into the Arctic to reach all-time record highs. Will these warm river discharges lead to enhanced ice melting?

Snow free land mass should make a tremendous difference, mostly by direct insolation.

At this point (summer solstice) an average of 250-280 W/m^2 insolation will make it to the ground anywhere in the Arctic / sub-Arctic, even including cloud cover.

The albedo difference between snow covered and base soil is something like 0.5 or 0.6, so we can expect for average weather, with cloud cover included, an additional 125-170 W/m^2 addition warming over areas that are normally snow covered.

June 2012 NH snow anomaly, turned out to be a record 6 million km^2,
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6

this year the snow cover is only marginally larger than last year's :

http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013175.png
http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2012175.png

which suggests that currently the Nothern Hemisphere is currently absorbing a whopping 750-1000 TW additional heat above "average".

So yes, all that snow-free land DOES make a difference. It's absorbing a tremendous amount of heat right now, which warms the atmosphere and since half will be blown South and half North, some very significant part of that will cause ice melt later in the summer.

I ran an analysis comparing NH snow cover in June, and final Sept ice extent, and found remarkable correlation (R>0.9), which suggests that snow cover (decline) over the NH explains a great deal of the summer sea ice reductions we have been confronted with over the past decades.

Moreover, if I re-do the analysis including June "sea ice area" as well as June snow cover, the correlation gets even better and approaches R=0.98, which actually makes it (snow and ice cover in June) a pretty good "predictor" for September sea ice extent.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #580 on: June 25, 2013, 08:27:16 AM »
Arctico,
important point you raise, and here is a link:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=AK&prodtype=discussion
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #581 on: June 25, 2013, 08:36:43 AM »
Wow. If the lack of snow cover and a second set of crazy heat in Alaska doesn't make the public pause, I hope it actually doesn't mean much impact in other areas of discussion around here. :shudder:.

Good points brought up posters, thanks!

The AO has been flat for awhile but I'm very wary for a negative phase to come about.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #582 on: June 25, 2013, 09:32:10 AM »
Thx, Werner & Werther, very much appreciated.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #583 on: June 25, 2013, 10:00:40 AM »
Strange year, storm makes weeks long holidays, melting starts late, North pole remains cold, Alaska close to triple digits again, buoys drifting into Beaufort, concentration low on the east side and little gradient now. Is this a new page, a new chapter or a new planet?

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #584 on: June 25, 2013, 10:26:20 AM »
Hi Arcticio,
I am occupied by the same question. Is this what it seems?
Checked CC's ridge for next week. Fairbanks is forecast to recieve three days at 31dC in a row. Needless,CA, other end of the ridge, forecast to reach 52dC!
I know, this is an Arctic site (not about Death Valley). But nevertheless...

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #585 on: June 25, 2013, 03:22:56 PM »
I wonder what effect all of this heat in the high-latitude land masses will have on the Arctic. I figure this extreme heat will cause river temperatures leading into the Arctic to reach all-time record highs. Will these warm river discharges lead to enhanced ice melting?

Snow free land mass should make a tremendous difference, mostly by direct insolation.

At this point (summer solstice) an average of 250-280 W/m^2 insolation will make it to the ground anywhere in the Arctic / sub-Arctic, even including cloud cover.

The albedo difference between snow covered and base soil is something like 0.5 or 0.6, so we can expect for average weather, with cloud cover included, an additional 125-170 W/m^2 addition warming over areas that are normally snow covered.

June 2012 NH snow anomaly, turned out to be a record 6 million km^2,
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6

this year the snow cover is only marginally larger than last year's :

http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013175.png
http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2012175.png

which suggests that currently the Nothern Hemisphere is currently absorbing a whopping 750-1000 TW additional heat above "average".

So yes, all that snow-free land DOES make a difference. It's absorbing a tremendous amount of heat right now, which warms the atmosphere and since half will be blown South and half North, some very significant part of that will cause ice melt later in the summer.

I ran an analysis comparing NH snow cover in June, and final Sept ice extent, and found remarkable correlation (R>0.9), which suggests that snow cover (decline) over the NH explains a great deal of the summer sea ice reductions we have been confronted with over the past decades.

Moreover, if I re-do the analysis including June "sea ice area" as well as June snow cover, the correlation gets even better and approaches R=0.98, which actually makes it (snow and ice cover in June) a pretty good "predictor" for September sea ice extent.

Doesn't the correlation simply indicate that NH snow cover in June is predictive for final Sept ice extent? It may be, in part, a driver but I am thinking the NH June snow cover is (like September SIE) symptomatic of AGW.

Something you said does concern me. If bare ground absorbs far more energy, what does the snow cover loss mean for NH permafrost? This seems to be a possible huge positive feedback which does not get enough attention. Snow cover anomaly degrades and shrinks permafrost. Warmer ground temperatures discourage ground snow formation, contributing to larger snow anomalies.

I've often thought that permafrost and glaciers should be viewed as having the same effect as MYI in the Arctic Ocean while the snow cover is similar to FYI. The permafrost buffers the impact of annual fluctuations in weather. As the permafrost declines we lose this stabilizing influence.


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #586 on: June 25, 2013, 03:29:18 PM »
Strange year, storm makes weeks long holidays, melting starts late, North pole remains cold, Alaska close to triple digits again, buoys drifting into Beaufort, concentration low on the east side and little gradient now. Is this a new page, a new chapter or a new planet?

The calm before the storm?

Nightvid Cole

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #587 on: June 25, 2013, 03:31:18 PM »
The 12z GFS holds a cold pool over the arctic basin into July.

Cloudy and cold with relatively light winds ain't bringing the big melt.

The ice seems so rotten now, even an unusually cold, cloudy summer might just make the records from last year be 'only' shattered, rather than pulverized...

There is no guarantee that ice averaging 1.5M thick will melt out where as ice 3-4 meters thick under similar conditions.


http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013176.terra.4km

See the big clearing extending from Laptev almost to Point Barrow? The ice along most of it looks like it's been broken up into small floes with translucent slush puppie in between. This translucent stuff is just as bad (in terms of transmitting solar radiation to the water below) as a significantly reduced ice concentration, and given Perovich et al. as I discussed before, I now expect area, extent, and volume this September to approach half of last year's values.

The earth is overheating and wants to ditch its cap...

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #588 on: June 25, 2013, 04:01:04 PM »
It's hard to see how 2013 can match 2012 with very little open water in the Beaufort.
Since 60 days all buoys below 80° move into Beaufort, there must be a hidden exit. :o


ClimateChange

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #589 on: June 25, 2013, 06:00:59 PM »
THE HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED ARE BEING ADVERTISED TO OCCUR.

It would be great to have some context, a source, a link or a date in parallel. Google finds nothing.

That was from the Area Forecast Discussion for NWS Fairbanks from yesterday. I noticed the low in Fairbanks, AK this morning was just 70. That's pretty incredible.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #590 on: June 25, 2013, 06:46:42 PM »
ClimateChange,

it's generally accepted net-etiquette to always, always include a URL to highlighted statements and information.
As well good nettiquette is to read all posts that occurred since one's last posting before composing one's next comment.

Wo worries, though, I had your back about nine post prior.
"Erst kommt das fressen, dann kommt die Moral!"

Berthold Brecht

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #591 on: June 25, 2013, 07:23:53 PM »
Some may find the NP WEBCAM image from early AUG 2007 'interesting':
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2007/images/noaa3-2007-0802-220048.jpg

LOTS of open water at the NP - which has become almost 'normal' in the past 10 years.  I think too much emphasis has been placed on the 'breakup' near the Pole this year; especially when viewing the MODIS imagery which really doesn't show any 'open' water yet near the Pole. 

Extremely unusual WX pattern persists in the NH; substantial rains in Northern CA yesterday/overnite; and an unusually large and persistent upper level TROF expected to develop over the eastern US in a few days with some of the 'coldest ' late June/early JUL temps expected east of the Mississippi.

Steve
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Peter Ellis

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #592 on: June 25, 2013, 08:13:29 PM »
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/np2007/gallery_np_questions.html

"Web Cam 3 was transported northward on the R/V Polarstern as a replacement for a webcam that failed during deployment in April. Most of the photos from Web Cam 3 are from the transit on the Polarstern, and the open water you see is NOT at the North Pole. Web Cam 3 was deployed on September 13, 2007, as close as the Pole as the Polarstern could come. Only a day later, on September 14, the mount fell over, and from that time until winter freeze, the camera pointed only at the sky."

Peter Ellis

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #593 on: June 25, 2013, 08:17:21 PM »
If all else fails, use your brain - in the photo you link, the camera is clearly (a) many metres above sea level and (b) actually in the open water.  It therefore clearly cannot be taken from an ice-based buoy!

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #594 on: June 25, 2013, 09:29:58 PM »
Yes - it was neeare the NP - otherwise all the WEB CAMS would vanish - lots of ponding and then open water.  That was the same year a woman swam at the NP_ in the open waters.  The Buoy's are not stationary to be sure - they all drift off the mark - but close enuf for GOVT work.
Steve

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CraigsIsland

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #595 on: June 25, 2013, 10:07:20 PM »
Extremely unusual WX pattern persists in the NH; substantial rains in Northern CA yesterday/overnite; and an unusually large and persistent upper level TROF expected to develop over the eastern US in a few days with some of the 'coldest ' late June/early JUL temps expected east of the Mississippi.

I'm from Northern CA and can confirmed unusual weather here. Was 96+ F Saturday then two days later its late 60s/70s as a high with rain. Some friends notice it but not a lot of people think it has anything to do with a changing climate (i.e. changing jet stream patterns). I'm sure some in Alaska would raise more ruckus with their 90 F + temperature highs.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #596 on: June 25, 2013, 10:42:38 PM »
Actually - it is not uncommon for temps to get into the 90's in the interior of AK in June and Jul (clouds and stormier WX tend to eliminate those high temps by AUG).

Two years ago, the following article in DKOS (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/07/992246/-eSci-Epic-Arctic-Meltdown) noted:

The beach like boundary with open water at 89° north shows the thinness of the ice. Polar sea ice melt ponds are common in July but open water is not.  Source: NOAA PMEL

Accompanying WEBCAM image in the article shows either a lot of ponding (or as the author believed 'open water') taken on JUL 7, 2011.  I highly doubt we will see anything close to that in 2 weeks this year. The real POINT I was trying to make is that this open water/deep ponding has been going on quite a bit over the last 6 years - and seeing cracks in the ice near the NP is not that big a deal - anymore...

Steve
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Tourists, hunters stranded on ice floes off Baffin Island
« Reply #597 on: June 25, 2013, 10:50:57 PM »
Tourists, hunters stranded on ice floes off Baffin Island
Rescue aircraft en route to scene
"About 30 people are stranded on ice floes off Baffin Island about 40 kilometres north of Arctic Bay, Nunavut.

"Niore Iqalukjuak, the local search and rescue co-ordinator, said two floes are drifting, one with about 11 local hunters and the other with tourists and guides from the adventure company Arctic Kingdom."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2013/06/25/north-baffin-ice-floe-stranded.html
Cheers!
Lodger

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #598 on: June 25, 2013, 11:10:46 PM »
This is great... photo takeen of OPEN water at 90N in 1987 when 3 Subs surfaced in the open water in May, 1987.  Some accounts of open floes during the winter.   

http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
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CraigsIsland

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #599 on: June 25, 2013, 11:24:14 PM »
Actually - it is not uncommon for temps to get into the 90's in the interior of AK in June and Jul (clouds and stormier WX tend to eliminate those high temps by AUG).

Two years ago, the following article in DKOS (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/07/992246/-eSci-Epic-Arctic-Meltdown) noted:

The beach like boundary with open water at 89° north shows the thinness of the ice. Polar sea ice melt ponds are common in July but open water is not.  Source: NOAA PMEL

Accompanying WEBCAM image in the article shows either a lot of ponding (or as the author believed 'open water') taken on JUL 7, 2011.  I highly doubt we will see anything close to that in 2 weeks this year. The real POINT I was trying to make is that this open water/deep ponding has been going on quite a bit over the last 6 years - and seeing cracks in the ice near the NP is not that big a deal - anymore...

Steve

Thanks for clarifying AK temps