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Author Topic: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion  (Read 724580 times)

Bob Wallace

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #600 on: June 25, 2013, 11:36:05 PM »
You might want to be careful when using Daly as a source.

John Daly was a climate change denier.  (Apparently he died in 2004.  His site was maintained for about four more years.)

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #601 on: June 25, 2013, 11:47:05 PM »

Day 176 2013

Same 2012

This is tile r03c04...you see Frantsa Yosefa ti the mid-right.

I changed brightness (-10), contrast (+22) and mid-tones (-64) on these MODIS r03c04 tiles. I know, the light/calibration of the sensor could be different…
But I guess with what I changed, I repressed all irrelevant rubble and fog, leaving mostly the important, still snow covered floes and the thicker clouds in greys.

Just look at the texture here… In the upper left corner is the Pole. In ’12 you can see the ‘mesh-structured’ pack still existed. It’s all faded into structureless floes now. I think CT gets it right to colour it at about 60% concentration...while counting the rubble.
The good floes comprise less. As HYCOM puts the region at 1.60 m thickness, that would just count for the floes…
PIOMAS can just hold out through extent in the periphery? If it does... we'll know in ten days.

Jim Pettit

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #602 on: June 26, 2013, 01:16:05 AM »
Actually - it is not uncommon for temps to get into the 90's in the interior of AK in June and July
No. But it is uncommon to have two-week-long heat waves in the interior of AK with multiple daily and monthly high temperature records equaled if not obliterated. It's uncommon for Fairbanks to be well on its way to its warmest June ever by far. It's uncommon for Barrow to have thunderstorms. It's uncommon for Nome to reach an all-time high. And this, which came out a few hours ago, is uncommon:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1141 AM AKDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE AT FAIRBANKS...

THE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA COMBINED WITH NEARLY
22 HOURS OF SUNSHINE IS PRODUCING VERY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN
FAIRBANKS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES YESTERDAY BROKE THE
PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD FOR JUNE 24TH OF 65 SET BACK IN 1971.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT WAS A
BALMY 70 DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS 70 OR WARMER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDED
IN FAIRBANKS IN 98 YEARS.
THE ONLY LOW TEMPERATURE WARMER THAN
THIS WAS 76 DEGREES THAT WAS OBSERVED ON JUNE 26TH 1915...WHICH IS
A QUESTIONABLE RECORD. IN ANY CASE...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT
TODAYS LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST EVER OBSERVED IN
FAIRBANKS.

So far as those submarines surfacing in the Arctic pictures we've all seen flogged around denialist blogs for the past several years: it's not uncommon to have summertime holes in the ice. Everyone knows that. But overall, ice is less voluminous than it's been at any time for the past several thousand years, if not longer. And that is uncommon by any measure...

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #603 on: June 26, 2013, 01:34:15 AM »
Easy, everyone.

weather intel - as you can see, we are quite familiar with the sub images, and aware of polynyas et. al. in the high arctic, even at the pole.

I think what we are saying is (and what werthers images so elegantly illustrate) that this isn't our fathers arctic icecap. What has happened to the ice this year is neither similar nor typical of the past. The state of the ice in those photo images has little in common with what is happening now beyond latitude.  Look at some of the on going discussions, and I think you will see why.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #604 on: June 26, 2013, 04:11:28 AM »


I'm just wondering about the Greenland Sea.  Seems like it's not getting 'refreshed' by ice flowing out the Fram as usually happens.  And while area and extent are holding up concentration is getting spotty.

This is looking like ice that could go away quickly.

Does anyone have sufficient memory (or a place to check) to tell if this is an unusual condition or if it happens from time to time.

Frivolousz21

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #605 on: June 26, 2013, 04:54:31 AM »
iirc almost all of it melted out in 2010.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #606 on: June 26, 2013, 09:36:19 PM »
Others have doubtless already remarked it but I'm struck by a fundamental difference between the images Werther posted at June 25, 2013, 11:47:05 PM .

The 2012 image is dominated by large scale systematic conjugate shear fractures of a type familiar to geologists and others. The 2013 image is largely devoid of those; only at the upper left of the image can hints of such a fracturing system be seen.

To me this suggests that the ice visible in this year's picture was never sufficiently homogeneous to develop systematic  fracturing, or (?) has passed the point at which such fracturing remains visible.






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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #607 on: June 26, 2013, 09:59:10 PM »
A-Team has some fascinating animations on the ASIB, today, that imply that there is substantial flow through the Fram.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/06/asi-2013-update-3-the-arctic-goes-pop.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b019103db7a1d970c#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b019103db7a1d970c
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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #608 on: June 26, 2013, 11:02:18 PM »
OLN, hi,
For my part, I've got the impression that what's leaving through Fram now is mostly FYI.
If true, no wonder it rapidly disperses/melts.
Again, a very different aspect compared to earlier years.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #609 on: June 26, 2013, 11:36:33 PM »
The http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif HYCOM movie (via Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Graphs) of Ice Thickness (last 30 days) indicates a fair amount of multi-year ice (MYI) is passing into Fram Strait, and then breaking up pretty quickly.  This "fair amount" appears to me to be roughly the same amount of MYI as 2010 and 2012 at this time of year, but is much less than 2011 in late June.

But you are right, werther, that more than half of Fram Strait is covered in first year ice (FYI) or no ice, per HYCOM, and that the ice exported into the Greenland Sea is melting pretty fast.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #610 on: June 27, 2013, 01:20:16 AM »
The 2012 image is dominated by large scale systematic conjugate shear fractures of a type familiar to geologists and others. The 2013 image is largely devoid of those; only at the upper left of the image can hints of such a fracturing system be seen.

Hi Doug, welcome  :)

The shape of the ice floes is a proxy for the length of time elapse since fracturing occurred. The longer the floe drifts, bumps, and collides with neighboring floes, the rounder it gets.

Look back in the satellite record for 2013. You'll see when these floes broke up.

Cheers!
Lodger

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #611 on: June 27, 2013, 09:34:36 AM »
I am looking on Rapid response R06C03, and seeing ice coloration and granularity I don't understand.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2013177.terra.250m

Large expanses of ice along the margins of the pack is *brown*, and it appears to be approximately the consistency of oatmeal.

Could someone offer an interpretation?
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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #612 on: June 27, 2013, 10:26:53 AM »
Morning JDallen,
Having watched the same region this morning, the ‘browning’ occurred to me too.
This is a detail, enhanced  (brightness -10/contrast +22/mid-tones -64), of a part between Barrow and Wrangel:


One: this ice is melting. Two: I’ve thought about algae messing up the top ocean layer, forest fire pollution in the winds coming from Chukchen.
But, three, I guess its optical. Even where there are no thick clouds visible, there is high water vapour content in the form of low fog and cirrus high up. At the same time, there is a strong temperature gradient between exceptionally warm air over Alaska and Bering Strait and relatively cold air over the ice pack. The same goes for the open Chukchi waters, DMI shows them in reds straight against the melting pack.
Must be the old prismatic light breaking trick…

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #613 on: June 27, 2013, 11:44:59 AM »
What about ice scratching the ground?

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #614 on: June 27, 2013, 12:17:11 PM »
What does it mean, the ice looks terrible in in the Chukchi.
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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #615 on: June 27, 2013, 12:15:17 PM »
Nice...scratching my head over that one, Arcticio.
Once, it did (some of our friends have posted on the experience of the "Nautilus" submarine fifty years ago). I doubt it does now...

iceman

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #616 on: June 27, 2013, 01:53:42 PM »
The HYCOM animation http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif forecasts that the two bands of thin ice near the pole will start to join up over the next week.  However, they're still isolated from the open water in the Laptev by relatively thick ice near the 80th parallel.

dbostrom

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #617 on: June 27, 2013, 09:51:20 PM »
Thank you, Artful Dodger. I see what you're saying; the floes become eroded as they jostle together and that stands to reason.

It's more the presence and absence of an initial fracture system geometry that strikes me, as opposed to the ultimate fate of the floes. What's intriguing to me is the very different state of the ice visible in Werther's post, at the same relative time of year. The original conjugate shear system is visible in last year's image and no such system is visible in this year's image.

One thing that would be really fascinating to see is year-year record  of the fracture system scale at inception of breakup. As well, at what thickness does systematic fracture on breakup vanish or at least become invisible to us?

I suppose what I'm orbiting here is the notion that the presence and scale of a conjugate fracture system is a hint as to the 'quality" (quality being thickness and homogeneity, without the latter of which organized fracturing can't happen) of the ice system.  If we were to see fracture systems shrink in scale year-year then that's a helpful signal.

I've little doubt this is old-hat to actual experts (as opposed to myself) on this topic.

TerryM

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #618 on: June 27, 2013, 10:16:29 PM »
db
I'm not sure if you're familiar with the split zoom feature at Arctic.io. It makes it very easy to flip through and compare this year to past years. Lance Modis goes further back in time if you think you've found something of interest.


Terry

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #619 on: June 27, 2013, 10:53:05 PM »
Hi DBostrom,
I’m flattered that my initial experimenting on how to preserve relevant MODIS tiles is gaining attention. I saw it being copied on the Wunderground CC Blog, but without the description of it’s production (very crude, but the result was to my own surprise striking).

This was a perfect illustration of the importance of what I’ve been calling the ‘mesh-structured’ pack since spring 2011.

Recalling, it still covered a wide part of the CAB last year June (about 3 Mkm2), but it was reduced to 1,8 Mkm2 at September minimum.
Apparently, it never ‘grew back’. When MODIS became available during March, large swaths of the pack were covered by snow, hiding the structure. But on ASCAT the 1,8 Mkm2 stood out during winter. 
Wayne Davidson has suggested that the dissolving of the FYI pack (I explicitly avoid the term ‘melt’…) seems to work to its initial formation in October last year as ‘pancake-structure’. I like that. Under the snow cover, all through April the weaknesses in between must have gotten worse. Then, PAC2013, as an extension of the cyclone all the way through the troposphere, dispersed all of it, exploiting the 'space' there's been for months.

There’s an amazing range of different ‘niches’ for ice behaviour, spread out over the nine million km2 of Arctic Ocean that does really matter ( skip Hudson, Baffin, East Greenland, Barentsz, Bering and Okhotsk).
The Beaufort last months is another story than the Sib side of the CAB.
Winters’ impact has been different. The main atmospheric flow is different. Mind, the East Sib Sea sector had +2-3 dC anomaly that wasn’t countered by the Feb-May cold in the periphery. And take into account that the anomalous cyclone drew a SW flow for weeks, generally from the Barentsz Sea into the East Sib Sea sector of the CAB ( rather cold, but NTL a flow).

While February weather brought the Beaufort fracturing, later phenomena promoted the mobility/weakness of the pack in the Sib sector. Maybe compressing the Beaufort part. I’m curious whether the initial form of Feb fracturing will show up in the melt process…

So what? Well, the ‘mesh structured’ pack still exists. It is about 1,6 Mkm2 now, mostly visible in MODIS tiles r05c03 and r04c03 near the CAA/Greenland. For survival and a ‘long tail’, it is of extreme importance whether this area will be spared this summer.

What are the chances? No earlier years’ plot is relevant, this is a unique drama.

As long as the temps don’t step up, winds don’t churn the mess and no Nemesis cyclone enters through July/August, there’s a chance the ‘pancake’ FYI on the Sib side still may provide some cover that prevents the ‘mesh-pack’ to break-up (that will be the end some coming year).

A same sort of hope goes for the Beaufort glass-plate to hold out ALAP.

That’s still the 4 Mkm2 mean September extent story.

There’s a bigger chance that the 3,28 Mkm2 scenario will unfold (my prediction, still).
You see, there’s about 2 Mkm2 structureless floe-soup now in the CAB (the CAB being 4,4 Mkm2).
Although CT, UB and HYCOM present a lot of red concentration and 2m thick ice, that is only relevant for the floes. And they’re swimming…
Even without melt-conducive weather, any period of strong winds can destroy them  and let 2 Mkm2 bare ocean emerge in a week.

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #620 on: June 27, 2013, 11:37:16 PM »
...
As long as the temps don’t step up, winds don’t churn the mess and no Nemesis cyclone enters through July/August, there’s a chance the ‘pancake’ FYI on the Sib side still may provide some cover that prevents the ‘mesh-pack’ to break-up (that will be the end some coming year).
...
You see, there’s about 2 Mkm2 structureless floe-soup now in the CAB (the CAB being 4,4 Mkm2).
Although CT, UB and HYCOM present a lot of red concentration and 2m thick ice, that is only relevant for the floes. And they’re swimming…
Even without melt-conducive weather, any period of strong winds can destroy them  and let 2 Mkm2 bare ocean emerge in a week.

I've similarly been watching the CAB "soup"; I believe they are over-estimating the concentration, as well as average thickness.  I believe you are correct, that one bad week would do it all in; or, several weeks of just a bit worse than now.

And that... is my concern.  It would appear that for us to be *limited* to 2007/2012 extent, everything needs to go *just* *right*.  I am pessimistic. 

Regarding Beaufort - Barrow reports about 13C currently, and aside from odd bergs, ice is no where to be seen.  I think the models have missed that, as well as the slush just north of the Bering straight.  It appears a general draw-back along the Alaskan coast is underway.  And of course, there is now the 20+C temps along sections of the NW passage to worry about as well.

Yah, I'm pessimistic.  Pray for snow, maybe?
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dbostrom

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #621 on: June 28, 2013, 12:18:45 AM »
Thank you, Terry.

As I suspected, great minds are already onto conjugate fracture systems being a helpful diagnostic of ice quality or health; Werther's mesh-structure and its apparent decline is exactly that.

A person with enough time could resurrect images going back a decade or so, normalize their scale, collect longitudinal statistics on the size of primary, secondary fractures, maybe learn something interesting. Surely somebody's already done that?

Fun with fractures in this book chapter...see figure 2.6 for an eerily familiar sight:

http://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9789048187980-c2.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-993505-p173954114

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #622 on: June 28, 2013, 01:24:58 AM »
 I made a quick composite of 2 Modis images 26th and 27th June as the clouds moved nicely. It shows the state of the CAB and comfirms the AMSR2 bremen map. Quite worrying as open water at that latitude and this time of year has a albedo of ~15%.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." W.S.Churchill

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #623 on: June 28, 2013, 02:06:47 AM »
I made a quick composite of 2 Modis images 26th and 27th June as the clouds moved nicely. It shows the state of the CAB and comfirms the AMSR2 bremen map. Quite worrying as open water at that latitude and this time of year has a albedo of ~15%.

Good image, and yes, that open water is picking up about ~300W/M2 right now.  Worrying also is, that with so many very small floes - sub 100M/diameter - side melt starts to be a factor as well, eroding the area via nibbling away multiple CM/day from around the edges.  Small values, but they add up to non-trivial surface area fairly fast.  If we get some wind, they'll no doubt get ground down further.

Much of the "slush" - ground up floes - will quite possibly evaporate almost before our eyes...

-J
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #624 on: June 28, 2013, 02:29:13 PM »
Interesting to note that the 06z GFS has gone with a strong -ve AO from about 5 days out. It will be interesting to see whether this is a one off or becomes a trend...

5 days out


8 days out
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werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #625 on: June 28, 2013, 04:44:14 PM »
BFTV, hi,

Checked ECMWF this morning and that shows basically the same. Some days of high pressure crossing the CAB. Maybe sunny weather. And the ridges over Mackenzie and Ural penetrate deep into the Arctic filled with warm temps on the 850Mb level.
 
The Kara and Beaufort are under siege...

deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #626 on: June 28, 2013, 05:06:28 PM »
Boom. Dipole.


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #627 on: June 28, 2013, 05:24:12 PM »
GFS would open up basin wide sunny skies huge solar influx.
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #628 on: June 28, 2013, 09:00:17 PM »
We'll see how long it stays and microwaves the ice.


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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #629 on: June 28, 2013, 09:44:32 PM »
We'll see how long it stays and microwaves the ice.

Consolation prize... the Dipole may slow export out of the Fram gap.
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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #630 on: June 29, 2013, 08:27:55 AM »
Potential major pattern change.




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CraigsIsland

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #631 on: June 29, 2013, 09:18:48 AM »
Looks horrific; just like these gd temps beating down California.

Supposed to have a noon soccer game on Sunday and its played on artificial turf. The turf adds 10-20 degrees f. Projected temperature outside the field is 105. It's nice I play goalkeeper but this game may not be played.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #632 on: June 29, 2013, 09:22:04 AM »
The Euro goes all out Death Star on the arctic.

And GIS.




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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #633 on: June 29, 2013, 09:27:44 AM »
Looks horrific; just like these gd temps beating down California.

Supposed to have a noon soccer game on Sunday and its played on artificial turf. The turf adds 10-20 degrees f. Projected temperature outside the field is 105. It's nice I play goalkeeper but this game may not be played.

BBC News 24 have just been reporting that the hottest temperatures on earth are feasible, recent days 47degC, 48 or over feasible (I think they said it was in Texas).

There was a word they failed to include with respect to the scrub/forest fires, drought and extreme heat. That word was 'again'. i.e. it's yet another year with such conditions.

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #634 on: June 29, 2013, 09:43:19 AM »
BBC News 24 have just been reporting that the hottest temperatures on earth are feasible, recent days 47degC, 48 or over feasible (I think they said it was in Texas).

There was a word they failed to include with respect to the scrub/forest fires, drought and extreme heat. That word was 'again'. i.e. it's yet another year with such conditions.

There's talk of Death Valley in Southern California breaking 55C.  *That* hasn't happened in almost a century, and that particular record is considered questionable.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #635 on: June 29, 2013, 12:25:26 PM »
Well it's a comfortable 15 where I am (near Manchester UK). But our cool weather is not due to the Greenland centred pattern. So far through June it has failed to manifest, every other year post 2007 shows the pattern to a greater or lesser degree.

JimD

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #636 on: June 29, 2013, 03:55:34 PM »
Prescott, AZ (where I live) yesterday (at 5600ft elevation in the mountains) reached 104 deg F only  1 deg F from its all time highest temp.  At my daughters house near Phoenix it was 119 F (122 F is their all time high).

Death Valley is supposed to hit 128 F today and 129 F on Sun & Mon.  The all time record of 134 F is safe this heat wave as the NWS is very good at temperature predictions in the desert and are not often mistaken by more than a degree or two to the high side.  Lots of media hype but an all time record is not in the cards.

This entire region has been above normal for weeks.  But the monsoonal clouds arrived for the first time this season yesterday afternoon (or Prescott would have set a new record) so this few days is likely to be the peak of temps for the year. 

It is always good to remember that we only record official temps like the above at certified stations.  It has been hotter than the 134 F in Death Valley in 1913 a lot of times in places like the Sahara.  I personally have seen 131 F in the shade there in Sept and know several other people who have seen 140 F in the shade in the deep Sahara during middle summer (any exertion at these temps can be fatal).  The world record for temp used to be in Libya at 136 or 137 but it was disqualified due to uncertainty about the reading.  I bet on it before Death Valley. 

 

 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Jim Pettit

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #637 on: June 29, 2013, 04:05:42 PM »
There's talk of Death Valley in Southern California breaking 55C.  *That* hasn't happened in almost a century, and that particular record is considered questionable.

FWIW, I worked hand-in-hand with the WMO committee that investigated and eventually overturned the previous recordholder for the all-time hottest temperature ever (El Azizia Libya in September, 1922). As part of that investigation, we looked intensely at the Death Valley 1913 record of 134F--after all, everyone wanted to make sure the record taking the top spot would be beyond doubt--and it was determined that that record was both accurate and valid. Some may have a few questions about it, but those questions are nothing like the ones that swirled around the Azizia "record", which was, as many suspected and we verified, thoroughly bogus.

The current Southwest US heat wave is historical, profound, and widespread. But I don't know that we'll see the 134 record beaten this weekend. Maybe next month... :)

deep octopus

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #638 on: June 29, 2013, 04:27:44 PM »
This could be the United States' version of Australia's "angry summer." No record highs would be needed to prove that, and the evidence is all around that it's more than about one daily high. 100 F for a low in Las Vegas is enough to make me pause.

For some geographical context, this heat is very extensive, climbing to 106 by Monday in Boise, Idaho; 108 in Orofino, in northern Idaho. Parts of northeastern Washington state will also get well into the 100s by early next week. Same story all the way from southeastern New Mexico and through eastern Texas. With drought conditions as they are, and many of these areas full of grasslands and pines, I'm wary of wildfires.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2013, 04:35:18 PM by Deep Octopus »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #639 on: June 29, 2013, 05:46:17 PM »
Deep Octopus,

Here is the CPC 3-7 day temperature hazard and fire warning overlay, plus current fires in the Western US as of June 29 2013.


ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #640 on: June 29, 2013, 08:36:46 PM »
This may not be news to many but...

HYCOM showing a massive reduction in thickness between the pole and Siberia.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013062818_2013062900_035_arcticictn.001.gif
Which is due to a reduced concentration pack.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicen/nowcast/icen2013062818_2013062900_035_arcticicen.001.gif

There may be thinning of the ice within that region (probably is) but the conservative interpretation is that the reduced concentration has reduced average thickness.

The question is; is this modelled result believable?

MODIS R04C04 has been the one to watch for some time, false colour suggests to me that a concentration of the order of 50% is quite believable.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2013179.terra.367

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #641 on: June 29, 2013, 10:27:59 PM »
I’ve collected the ‘enhanced’ MODIS-tiles (-10/+22/-64) on my CAD grid to get a grip on the continuing deterioration of the Central Arctic Basin – ice cover:



With the red line I marked the approximate boundary of the ‘mesh-pack’ today. It is about 1,5 Mkm2 now.
The red dot marks a 25 km2 sample. I counted the small floes out there to check the concentration.

First, the ‘mesh-pack’. It has already lost 300K this season. So whatever the weather, it is on trend to be completely dissolved.

Than, the dot sample. I took it within a part that’s ‘rubble’ (see my earlier posts; it’s not mainly open water nor large floes). There are about 22 floes out there with a mean area less than 0,5 km2. To trigger the imagination, that could still contain a hundred football lawns. Together they fill 43% of the sample area.
That doesn’t mean the rest is open water.  Actually, that may only get to 5%. The rest is anything between, but not 1,5-2,0 m thick ice.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #642 on: June 29, 2013, 11:41:19 PM »
New blog post.
The Central Arctic Thinning: Is it real?
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/the-central-arctic-thinning-is-it-real.html
Contains a multi-day composite of box R04C04, adjusted to bring out the ice state.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #643 on: June 30, 2013, 03:04:05 AM »
Nice work, Chris!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #644 on: June 30, 2013, 09:55:28 AM »
From comments at my blog, here's part of a reply I just made to Kevin O'Neill, not current conditions, but for MAM. Posted as people may find it of use.

Quote
Here's a graphic that should help. The purple trace is hue adjusted DMI trace for 2012, the red trace is for 2013. Red infill indicates 2013 below 2012, blue infill indicates 2013 above 2012.



Month demarcations are estimated.

There's also a table of NCEP/NCAR north of 80degN (area weighted). And difference between 2013 and 2012, following the same red/blue key as above.


Tor, thanks, hope it was of use.

ClimateChange

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #645 on: June 30, 2013, 03:45:10 PM »
There's talk of Death Valley in Southern California breaking 55C.  *That* hasn't happened in almost a century, and that particular record is considered questionable.

FWIW, I worked hand-in-hand with the WMO committee that investigated and eventually overturned the previous recordholder for the all-time hottest temperature ever (El Azizia Libya in September, 1922). As part of that investigation, we looked intensely at the Death Valley 1913 record of 134F--after all, everyone wanted to make sure the record taking the top spot would be beyond doubt--and it was determined that that record was both accurate and valid. Some may have a few questions about it, but those questions are nothing like the ones that swirled around the Azizia "record", which was, as many suspected and we verified, thoroughly bogus.

The current Southwest US heat wave is historical, profound, and widespread. But I don't know that we'll see the 134 record beaten this weekend. Maybe next month... :)

Color me skeptical. The temperature between Death Valley and Las Vegas varies in a predictable manner, usually the former is about 11 to 14 degrees warmer than the latter. On July 10, 1913, a cooperative observer in Las Vegas recorded 112, which while quite hot should not equate to 134 in Death Valley. And the other days of the hot stretch had similar differences. Based on the Las Vegas reading, I doubt the current Furnace Creek station would have been more than 124 to 127F. The only thing I could come up with is the old Greenland Ranch station was susceptible to isolated "Foehn" or "Chinook" like winds under perfect atmospheric conditions, and the same conditions have never been observed at an official station since 1913.

It's worth noting also that July 1913 was not unusually hot overall, in fact the monthly mean was fairly mild for both Death Valley and Las Vegas (actually quite cool for the latter, although UHI may play a role in that one).

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #646 on: June 30, 2013, 06:17:34 PM »
As I was making the CAD-collection for day 180 yesterday, I also saw why I don’t have to waste time on a count like I did June ’11: (it is a part of r03c03, centered 225 km NE of Cape Morris Jesup)



This was the situation day 157 June ’11. The “mesh-pattern” of more or less unscathed floes within broad leads filled with rubble still existed over the largest part of the image. 43% of the 90K area was covered by floes larger than 16 km2, average 96 km2.



Day 180 2013: there’s not much left of a recognizable pattern. It’s not much use start scanning floes, because it’s easy to see that the mean area has gone down and the percentage covered by plus-16 km2 floes has collapsed too.
(the red line corresponds with the 1,5 Mkm2 "mesh-pattern"-pack on yesterday's image)

werther

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #647 on: June 30, 2013, 06:32:54 PM »
I might as well show the part to the south, a 300x300 km2 part NE of Flade Isblink NE Greenland:



I took the coloured lines from HYCOM yesterday; the orange = plus 4 m thickness, green = +3 m, blue +2 (in the lower right corner). For some coherence, I hatched the 3-4 m swaths.
I’m not presenting this to criticize HYCOM. I think it is the collective effort of scientists, modellers and even our group of relentlessly lurking amateurs to come up with the story of what’s unfolding here.

The real situation is what you have to keep in mind while getting info from modelled products.
The +4 m tongue along Greenlands’ coast is not as solid as it seems on the model. The green +3m swath has no place in reality. The rest should be ‘blue’ between 2-3 m thick.
It goes just for the floes. The bigger ones probably are 3-5 m thick MYI. In the tongue, maybe even the smaller ones under 0,5 km2 measure 2-3 m.
But there isn’t 225 km3 volume in this area, that’s for sure! (75K x 3 m)

jdallen

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #648 on: June 30, 2013, 08:21:14 PM »
...
I’m not presenting this to criticize HYCOM. I think it is the collective effort of scientists, modellers and even our group of relentlessly lurking amateurs to come up with the story of what’s unfolding here.

The real situation is what you have to keep in mind while getting info from modelled products.
The +4 m tongue along Greenlands’ coast is not as solid as it seems on the model. The green +3m swath has no place in reality. The rest should be ‘blue’ between 2-3 m thick.
It goes just for the floes. The bigger ones probably are 3-5 m thick MYI. In the tongue, maybe even the smaller ones under 0,5 km2 measure 2-3 m.
But there isn’t 225 km3 volume in this area, that’s for sure! (75K x 3 m)


Uggggghhh.  I've only been able to catch bits and snatches of the state of the ice in the "MYI" region, with the weather we've had.  The images are unsettling, if unsurprising.

I heartily agree with your disclaimer - this should and does not reflect criticism of modellers work and research; it just illustrates some of their <b> EDIT - of the models, not the modellers!!!</b> limitations, and highlights the on-going importance of empirical study.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2013, 05:26:21 AM by jdallen »
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion
« Reply #649 on: June 30, 2013, 11:51:41 PM »
Werther,

I really appreciate the detailed analysis of HYCOM vs real image. Your dedication to reveal the real state of the ice is very helpful - and troubling.

A4R.