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Anne

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #100 on: September 11, 2017, 05:20:42 PM »
Two months after it erupted, methane is still escaping from the Seyakha blowhole on the Yamal peninsula.
Quote
Fresh analysis of a new geological phenomenon shows how gas is still gushing from a submerged crater caused by a fierce methane gas explosion in northern Siberia in June.
A 'pillar of fire' from the eruption was caused by stones and pebbles being thrown together as they were thrust out of the ground, sparking the swoosh of gas, like in an oven, a leading expert believes.
Reindeer and dogs from a nearby nomadic encampment fled in terror at the fireball, with some debris thrown as far as 200 metres from the epicentre.
A 50-metre deep funnel or crater was immediately filled by water from the Myudriyakha River flowing beside the site of the explosion.
Quote
Dr Anton Sinitasky, director of the Arctic research Centre in Yamalo-Nenets region [...]said: 'I can confirm that there was really a fire burning over the Seyakha funnel. We need to rely on the words of eyewitnesses. It lasted for one or one-and-a-half hours.
'Everything depended on the gas jet power.
'We think that the cause of the ignition was pebbles thrown by the eruption.
'The pebbles collided and struck a spark.
'It was like in gas oven - one spark was enough to set the gas on fire.
'When the power of gas jet began to decrease, the burning stopped.
'But the methane continues to leak from the funnel, so we have been able to take samples.'
Much more, including video, photographs and further speculation, in The Siberian Times. (Usual caveats apply.)
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/video-shows-methane-leaking-from-beneath-an-arctic-river-after-spectacular-eruption/

nicibiene

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #101 on: September 12, 2017, 07:23:43 AM »
Quote
Much more, including video, photographs and further speculation, in The Siberian Times. (Usual caveats apply.)
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/video-shows-methane-leaking-from-beneath-an-arctic-river-after-spectacular-eruption/

The russian humor (sarcasm?) about it is to admire in the video. Playing "Highway to hell" with earth turning upside down.  :o :o :o
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Forest Dweller

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #102 on: September 13, 2017, 10:16:40 AM »
The interesting bit to me being:

"It is all about monitoring,' said Dr Sinitasky.

'I know that oil and gas producing companies have maps of such objects and monitor them constantly.

'I have heard that for example Gazprom-Dobycha Yamburg make punctures and release gas to avoid eruption risk.

'When I was working at VNIIGAZ, I made a map of such objects for Gazprom.'

He said: 'The companies are very interested in minimising risks, they do not need any accidents, so they make maps and observe these objects very closely.

'As for the general map of such objects... The Institute of Oil and Gas Problems keeps a database on sites being discovered using satellite data.
The Earth Cryosphere Institute probably has its own database.'

Puncturing pingo's ey?
It would be nice if the good folks at Gazprom shared some footage of that...
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 10:43:02 AM by Forest Dweller »

morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #103 on: March 24, 2018, 11:11:49 PM »
NASA Couldn't Explain What Made This Strange, Deep Hole on Mars

https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-doesn-t-know-what-made-this-deep-hole-on-mars?perpetual=yes&limitstart=1

"That means the pit isn't tiny – at 50 centimetres (19.7 inches) per pixel, we're looking at a feature hundreds of metres across. Take a look on NASA's website for a hi-res version of the image."


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TerryM

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #105 on: April 06, 2018, 02:55:28 PM »
Apparently they can blow out repeatedly http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/crater-formed-by-exploding-pingo-in-arctic-erupts-a-second-time-from-methane-emissions/


Interesting in many ways. They refer to these as pingos rather than as pingo like structures, but this is perhaps due to a poor translation?
I live very close to a number of large and small kettle lakes, and within 100 K of the sight of a large methane eruption from a few years back. If we ever get solid ice in the region again I will check to see it methane bubbles are entrapped. 8)
Terry

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #106 on: April 06, 2018, 04:01:20 PM »

I live very close to a number of large and small kettle lakes, and within 100 K of the sight of a large methane eruption from a few years back. If we ever get solid ice in the region again I will check to see it methane bubbles are entrapped. 8)
Terry

Perhaps I misunderstand you, in which case, my apologies....Kettle lakes are artifacts of ice sheet retreat not methane blow outs, nor collapsed pingos.

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #107 on: April 06, 2018, 05:29:52 PM »
"pingo" yes when I looked in to it these features seemed quite different, so I guess there must be various types, or some authority called them this and no-one is rude enough to gainsay them?
It's quite interesting that they blame human activity, I'm assuming the release of pressure begins the process of gas release, too late not to interfere now, both here and below the ocean. When did those kettle lakes form? and are they founded below sea level, like the 'pingos' on Yamal peninsular?
                  john

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #108 on: April 06, 2018, 06:54:09 PM »
"pingo" yes when I looked in to it these features seemed quite different, so I guess there must be various types, or some authority called them this and no-one is rude enough to gainsay them?
It's quite interesting that they blame human activity, I'm assuming the release of pressure begins the process of gas release, too late not to interfere now, both here and below the ocean. When did those kettle lakes form? and are they founded below sea level, like the 'pingos' on Yamal peninsular?
                  john


And Sebastion


The local kettle lakes were formed as the glacier retreated leaving a huge block of ice behind. It was buried and all the silt that flowed out from under the still retreating glacier built up the land all around it.
At some time the ice melted and the ground subsided and filled with water. The largest here. Puslinch Lake has an outlet, but many others are essentially gigantic puddles that wax and wane with precipitation, runoff and evaporation.


Nothing to do with methane release so I probably shouldn't have mentioned them in this thread. I'd lived my adult life where glaciers never existed and I'm still excited when I discover another aspect of the local geography that was carved, or impacted by glacial action.


The methane explosion I referenced was a large geyser that erupted at a golf course not far from here. No gas lines in the vicinity nor any landfill sites.
I snuck in a week after the event and did a little poking about. The methane tunneled up through a minimum of 22 feet of very dense clay. No idea how any more feet of clay it may have migrated through.





Terry

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #109 on: April 06, 2018, 09:30:00 PM »
Gerontocrat: Thank you for providing the definition of kettle lakes- which I was too lazy to provide :D
Ontario is a wonderland for glacial features- entire fields of drumlins, lined up like sleeping ground sloths, eskers winding across wetlands, a bewildering assemblage of moranic features- and of course the kettle lakes. I do remember the gas eruption, do you know what caused it?

TerryM

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #110 on: April 07, 2018, 03:03:09 AM »
Gerontocrat: Thank you for providing the definition of kettle lakes- which I was too lazy to provide :D
Ontario is a wonderland for glacial features- entire fields of drumlins, lined up like sleeping ground sloths, eskers winding across wetlands, a bewildering assemblage of moranic features- and of course the kettle lakes. I do remember the gas eruption, do you know what caused it?
Not with any certainty.


My guess is that the huge salt structure to the north and the oldest petroleum field to the south have put a squeeze on methane that may have been trapped there for a very long time. It's also possible that this is just another glacier based feature that's related to the ground just now warming up from it's long ago cold spell when covered by ice.


If it ever ices over again I'll try to capture some gas in hopes that someone might be able to date it, assuming it's of biological origin.


Terry

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #111 on: May 08, 2018, 12:50:13 PM »
I think I'll pop this back up to visible as I have an increasing level of worry about the Yamal 'pingo like structures' should we run into the kind of summers we saw over last solar min ( 2010 being pretty impactful over siberia).

It appears that the inner continental high pressures that build over summer do so with more intent over low solar with the kind of heat domes building that brought us the russian drought of 2010 ( and crop issues) and extensive wildfires?

If the Yamal region was badly impacted by the run of hot summer over last low solar then this time around it might all prove too much and set off a series of eruptions from the upward of 1,000 'pingo like structures' now identified across Yamal.

When we look at the geology of the region we see it containing some ancient fault zones that reach out into the shelf seas off Siberia so what starts on the land could transfer out into the East Siberian Sea and place us in a very bad position!

If reserves there are at the lower end of predictions for reserves then it only needs 1% losses to double the level of methane in the atmosphere, if it is closer to the upper end of predictions for CH4 then we need only a teeny amount of 1% to be released to double methane levels!

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morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #112 on: October 05, 2018, 11:50:50 PM »
Russians find nearly 7k pingo structures in Yamal

http://sciencenordic.com/giant-gas-craters-discovered-bottom-barents-sea

Interesting that the ones in the Barents Sea are sunk into solid rock, not mud pack. That must have packed a lot of power to blow a 1k wide crater in rock....

http://siberiantimes.com/search/?text=pingo&x=4&y=9
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 12:51:10 AM by morganism »

morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #113 on: July 23, 2019, 12:38:21 AM »
"The record heat in #Siberia this summer not only has caused massive fires, but large areas of rapid permafrost melt and resultant ground collapse."

https://twitter.com/rgatess/status/1152943527824777216


morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #114 on: July 25, 2019, 11:41:41 AM »
Looks like major slumping in the burn areas themselves ?

https://www.roscosmos.ru/26604/

DrTskoul

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #115 on: July 25, 2019, 11:58:35 AM »
How can you tell??

Juan C. García

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #116 on: October 04, 2019, 06:13:14 PM »
Quote
Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground

A Washington Post analysis found that the region near the town of Zyryanka, in an enormous wedge of eastern Siberia called Yakutia, has warmed by more than 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times — roughly triple the global average.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #117 on: August 30, 2020, 07:57:59 PM »
New 50 meter blowhole opened up. Story at SiberianTimes.

I can't link from this tablet.

Lewis

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #118 on: August 30, 2020, 08:15:48 PM »

gerontocrat

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #119 on: August 30, 2020, 08:19:57 PM »
New 50 meter blowhole opened up. Story at SiberianTimes.

I can't link from this tablet.

https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/giant-new-50-metre-deep-crater-opens-up-in-arctic-tundra/
going, going, gone.

Trouble is, it's happening in the gas fields  +  loads of pipelines.
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glennbuck

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #120 on: August 31, 2020, 08:43:20 PM »
Some saying it is 165ft deep.


A huge crater has appeared in Russia’s Arctic region following a massive explosion.

Scientists believe the 165ft-deep hole was caused by the eruption of a build-up of methane gas beneath the thawing permafrost following record temperatures over the summer.

Professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky, of the Russian Oil and Gas Research Institute, described the hole as “unique”.

“It carries a lot of additional scientific information, which I am not yet ready to disclose,” he told the TV station.

“This is the subject of scientific publications.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/crater-explosion-arctic-tundra-russia-heatwave-methane-a9695581.html

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12537141/mystery-explosion-leaves-165ft-deep-crater-in-russias-arctic-tundra-amid-bizarre-ufo-conspiracy-theories/

Video below with pictures and commentary from Inspector Clouseau

« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 08:54:18 PM by glennbuck »

kassy

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #121 on: September 01, 2020, 01:28:21 PM »
From the Independant article:
Quote
It is the 17th crater of its kind to be found and documented in Yamal since 2014 – and is thought to be the biggest.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #122 on: September 01, 2020, 03:44:12 PM »
Curious:  there is virtually no debris around the rim of this new hole.  Did the explosion shoot the plug out like a bullet, and the debris is some distance away? or is this a sink hole where the plug dropped into a cavern or underground stream?  At the bottom of the hole is there a grassy surface, permafrost or flowing water?

So many questions!
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kassy

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #123 on: September 01, 2020, 11:46:53 PM »
I think it did explode it away. The bottom and lower edges are frozen but the whole thing will slump in over time.

It would be interesting to know what actually contributes to these locations. A bunch of local weaknesses leads to the methane stacking up and then some pretty impressive holes.  :)
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morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #124 on: September 19, 2020, 09:56:39 PM »
A large new ‘hole’ appears in Gydan tundra, following record-warm Arctic summer
17 September 2020

200 metres wide thermocirque seen weeks after scientists find funnel in the Yamal peninsula, caused by build up of methane.

Sciences said gas emissions were not the origin of this phenomenon.

‘This is a thermocirque; gas funnels have nothing to do with it.

‘We have been studying thermocirques for many years, they became active in warm year 2012.

'They look like huge landslides of semi-circular shape with outcrops of ice.

'Earlier such thermocirques were observed near the sea, now they are seen deeper on land. They are associated with ice layers and warming, alike to funnels’, she said.

http://www.siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/giant-new-hole-appears-in-russian-arctic-200-metres-in-diameter-and-20-metres-deep/

More than 400 sealed ‘craters’ are ticking time bombs from a total 7000+ Arctic permafrost mounds

http://www.siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/more-than-300-sealed-craters-are-ticking-time-bombs-from-a-total-7000-plus-arctic-permafrost-mounds/

At least three of the recorded eruptions had witnesses, who reported seeing the ignition.

These were the Antipayuta crater (C3), the Seyakha crater (C11) and the Yerkuta crater (C12) eruptions.

‘We believe the ignition was caused by electrostatic discharges, which adds to the danger of the mounds’, Vasily Bogoyavlensky said.


morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #125 on: February 05, 2021, 09:27:48 PM »
‘We think approximately that not more then five to ten per cent of these 7,185 mounds are really dangerous"

http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/scientists-call-for-urgent-increase-in-monitoring-potentially-explosive-permafrost-heave-mounds/

"What is currently missing is the map of the mounds that will definitely explode, which is one of the reason of why Professor Bogoyavlensky is calling to use all available methods to create a 24/7 monitoring system, given how dangerous it would be to have one of the mounds blowing up by or under currently existing infrastructure.

To explain the maps (above), Professor Bogoyavlensky said: ‘Now we have the full understanding of the nature of these gas heave mounds, we understand which types of them are potentially dangerous, but we can’t yet predict which of them will explode based on remote sensing.

‘A combination of methods is needed. So far we revealed and mapped 7,185 permafrost heave mounds, over 1800 zones of active gas emission from craters in Yamal thermokarst lakes and marked potentially dangerous areas with settlements and infrastructure sites on them.’"

Sciguy

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #126 on: February 05, 2021, 10:47:03 PM »
Here is the current methane map from Copernicus to put the above story in perspective.




[url][https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2021020500,3,2021020503&projection=classical_eurasia&layer_name=composition_ch4_totalcolumn/url]

It looks like the Siberian craters have quite a way to go to match the methane emissions from agriculture or coal mining in Asia.

kassy

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #127 on: February 05, 2021, 11:35:01 PM »
They won´t because they are a different type of signal.
Exploding mounds are a rather new feature. These things never happened 10 years ago. There is little reason to believe they will not happen 10 years from now.

Many of the ones that do not blow probably don´t because there is a local weakness that allows them to vent gasses before an explosion. 
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #128 on: February 06, 2021, 10:41:29 PM »
Thermokarsts and these mounds have the same root cause I think, melting permafrost. With thermokarsts, significant melt occurs at the surface and the ground collapses into shallow ponds that outgas methane continuously. Don't these mounds have some still frozen permafrost that caps the methane being created by microbes in the warming earth?

vox_mundi

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #129 on: February 13, 2021, 04:51:42 AM »
The Siberian Tundra Is Doing That Exploding Thing Again
https://earther.gizmodo.com/methane-is-blowing-more-holes-in-the-arctic-1846242991

The Siberian tundra is still out here exploding. A new study from the Woodwell Climate Research Center has identified three new craters in the region’s increasingly volatile permafrost, and the climate crisis is to blame.

Researchers have been seeing giant holes form in western Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula for years. The first, discovered by workers back in 2014, measured 262 feet (80 meters) in diameter. Since then, scientists have found another six craters on Yamal and the nearby Gydan peninsula, most recently discovering a crater as deep as half a football field last year.

To learn more about how these holes form, the researchers used satellite data from Siberia’s Yamal and Gydan peninsulas—a combined area of 126,255 square miles (327,000 square kilometers)—to create an artificial intelligence-based model of the region with Google Earth Engine’s cloud computing platform. The model located all seven of the previously-discovered craters, and also indicated that three more of them have formed.

The researchers found that the craters begin forming deep underground, in pockets of thawed earth known as taliks. These taliks frequently form beneath Arctic lakes when the water within them warms. Methane can build in these pockets. As pressure grows, it can lead to explosive results.

In addition to uncovering the three new holes, the model showed previously unseen stark changes across the two peninsulas. It found that between 1984 and 2017, about 5% of the examined area has seen observable ecosystem changes, including “shifts in vegetation, elevation, and water extent.” Entire lakes have disappeared, draining out completely as the permafrost—frozen ground made of soil, rocks, and water—that forms their outer edges and bottoms melted away amid rising temperatures. Huge swaths of the region have also become greener because higher air and soil temperatures have increased plant growth. Due to permafrost thaw and ice melt, parts of the region are also sinking.

Permafrost thaw itself is dangerous. It’s left coasts more vulnerable to dangerous erosion, and it threatens to unleash the planet-warming methane currently stored safely beneath the ground into the atmosphere. The craters are the most dramatic example of that, but they’re hardly the only way methane and carbon dioxide escape from the tundra. Scientists have found that the Arctic is emitting more carbon from formerly frozen soils than it takes up, creating a dangerous situation for the climate.



Detecting and Mapping Gas Emission Craters on the Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, Western Siberia
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/1/21/htm
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11010021
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vox_mundi

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #130 on: February 19, 2021, 07:56:22 AM »
Russian 3D Model Details Explosive Origins of Arctic Crater
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/18/russian-3d-model-details-explosive-origins-of-arctic-pit-to-hell-a72999

Russian scientists believe that a massive crater above the Arctic Circle described as a “pit to hell” was formed as a result of an explosion caused by built-up methane.

The researchers based their conclusions on a 3D model they created from drone footage from inside the well-preserved crater that has not yet eroded or filled with water. Satellite images revealed that the crater formed in Siberia’s extreme northwest between May and June 2020, the researchers wrote in a paper published in the journal Geosciences last week.

The model confirmed scientists’ hypothesis that the crater exploded due to pressure from methane, a greenhouse gas more potent than carbon dioxide.

Gas, ice fragments and frozen soil scattered across the remote Yamal Peninsula as far as 200 meters from the explosion site, the researchers said. They warned, based on previous studies, that the crater could experience “repeated powerful gas blowouts.”

Dr. Merritt Turetsky, the director of the U.S.-based Institute of Arctic and Apine Research, stressed that “localized heave mounds that explode with buildup of methane are not the same as widespread methane release due to permafrost thaw.“


Yamal gas blowout crater C17: 3D model of the ground surface and underground cavity in two orthogonal directions (A,B) according to aerial photography from UAV (field data of 26 August 2020).

New Catastrophic Gas Blowout and Giant Crater on the Yamal Peninsula in 2020: Results of the Expedition and Data Processing, Geoscience (2021)
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/2/71/htm
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morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #131 on: June 15, 2021, 12:36:29 AM »
BBC quick reel

https://www.bbc.co.uk/reel/video/p08lmh4z/siberia-s-enormous-hole-in-the-ground-is-getting-bigger



Russia is to lose its permafrost, minister of natural resources warns

13 May 2021

Northern territories ‘will become arable farmland in 20-to-30 years', and will have to adapt - fast.

http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/russia-is-to-lose-its-permafrost-minister-of-natural-resources-warns/
« Last Edit: June 15, 2021, 12:42:30 AM by morganism »

morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #132 on: June 23, 2021, 01:12:26 AM »
Ground Temperatures Hit 118 Degrees in the Arctic Circle

It’s important to note that the temperatures being discussed here are land surface temperatures, not air temperatures. The air temperature in Verkhojansk was 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius)—still anomalously hot, but not Arizona hot.

Other ground temperatures in the region included 109 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius) in Govorovo and 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit (37 degrees Celsius) in Saskylah, which had its highest temperatures since 1936."

The same region also suffered through a heat wave that led to a very un-Siberian air temperature reading of 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) exactly a year ago to the day from the new freak heat. It’s the hottest temperature ever recorded in the region. It was also in the 90s last month in western Siberia

https://gizmodo.com/ground-temperatures-hit-118-degrees-in-the-arctic-circl-1847144505?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4

Rod

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #133 on: June 23, 2021, 05:32:38 AM »
Good find morganism!

I wish we had something a little more reliable than satellite imagery for this data (surely they have at least a few ground observation points in the area they could use to verify???).

 In any event, this is important data for anyone who pays attention to permafrost melt!

Thank you for pointing it out.


ArgonneForest

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #134 on: June 23, 2021, 05:39:41 AM »
I think it's worth noting that while these readings are of concern, there is precedent for them: https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1407502342761574401

Certainly not a good trend for sure, but not "the sky is falling" theme as Brian Kahn perpetuates all too often

kassy

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #135 on: June 23, 2021, 11:01:20 AM »
So what out of that twitter mess is actually the argument? Can you not just type that here?
If your only argument was that air temps are lower they do actually mention it in the article and of course all the permafrost is in the ground and not floating...
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #136 on: June 23, 2021, 02:13:19 PM »
So what out of that twitter mess is actually the argument? Can you not just type that here?
If your only argument was that air temps are lower they do actually mention it in the article and of course all the permafrost is in the ground and not floating...

Yes. I read the tweets expecting at least to see someone point out this has occurred before. And here is the thing. I expect that it has happened before in recent years but that still is disturbing.

I have often felt we should be tracking the extent of the permafrost, both continuous and discontinuous. It is every bit as much of the cryosphere as glaciers, ice sheets and sea ice. And like ice sheets and glaciers, it is slow to respond to warming and melt is unlikely to slow down once it gets going. There are 23 million square kilometers of permafrost in the northern hemisphere.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/whereis_fg.html#:~:text=Permafrost%20exists%20where%20the%20ground,(9%20million%20square%20miles).

By comparison, the Greenland ice sheet is 1.7 million square kilometers while there are 90,000 square kilometers of glaciers in the U.S. and 200,000 square kilometers of glaciers in Canada.

I have no doubt that discontinuous permafrost is disappearing while continuous permafrost is transforming into discontinuous.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2021, 02:57:47 PM by Shared Humanity »

ArgonneForest

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #137 on: June 23, 2021, 03:06:43 PM »
So what out of that twitter mess is actually the argument? Can you not just type that here?
If your only argument was that air temps are lower they do actually mention it in the article and of course all the permafrost is in the ground and not floating...

Did you even take the time to read it?  If you did, then you would understand that my main argument is that this has happened before and the region is subject to high temperatures during blocking.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #138 on: June 23, 2021, 03:21:24 PM »
So what out of that twitter mess is actually the argument? Can you not just type that here?
If your only argument was that air temps are lower they do actually mention it in the article and of course all the permafrost is in the ground and not floating...

Did you even take the time to read it?  If you did, then you would understand that my main argument is that this has happened before and the region is subject to high temperatures during blocking.

I must be dense. I reread the twitter thread and still don't see anything of note.

ArgonneForest

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #139 on: June 23, 2021, 03:33:51 PM »
So what out of that twitter mess is actually the argument? Can you not just type that here?
If your only argument was that air temps are lower they do actually mention it in the article and of course all the permafrost is in the ground and not floating...

Did you even take the time to read it?  If you did, then you would understand that my main argument is that this has happened before and the region is subject to high temperatures during blocking.

I must be dense. I reread the twitter thread and still don't see anything of note.

I was talking to Kassy. Besides, the linked article from the World Weather Attribution site details the priors

kassy

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #140 on: June 23, 2021, 07:21:47 PM »
Yes but that is the problem...a twitter thread is not a good source of info usually. If there is an article just cite the relevant info from it and quote that.

Also we discuss topics so anyone can chime in.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

ArgonneForest

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #141 on: June 23, 2021, 08:00:29 PM »
Yes but that is the problem...a twitter thread is not a good source of info usually. If there is an article just cite the relevant info from it and quote that.

It is a good source when the person I'm talking with is an Alaskan climate scientist

Also we discuss topics so anyone can chime in.

morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #142 on: February 03, 2022, 09:19:44 AM »
Cool, PBS Nova show on permafrost methane lead with the Siberian blow-outs last night...

vox_mundi

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #143 on: August 25, 2022, 07:51:11 PM »
Current Siberian Warming Is the Most Powerful of the Last 7,000 Years
https://phys.org/news/2022-08-current-siberian-powerful-years.html



The north of Western Siberia is recording the warmest summers of the last 7,000 years. While for several millennia the temperature of the region was following a general cooling, in the 19th century there has been an abrupt change with rapidly rising temperature that has reached its highest value in the recent decades. These findings were published today in Nature Communications.

Thanks to multiple field expeditions aimed at collecting subfossil wood performed over the last 40 years, dendrochronologists of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), and the Ural Federal University (UrFU), have eventually been able to create a unique and extraordinary-long tree-ring width chronology from the Yamal region allowing to track the course of summer temperature over the past 7,638 years. With support from colleagues of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, and of the University of Geneva, they have been able to perform analyses to confidently reconstruct and characterize the temperatures over the full period and with annual resolution.

"Due to changes in the Earth's orbit we would have expected a continuous, slow and gradual decrease of incoming summer solar energy and thus temperature at the subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during last 8-9 millennia. However, how recorded by the trees growing in Yamal, this cooling trend has been interrupted in the middle of the 19th century, when temperature began to rise very quickly and reached the highest values in recent decades," says Rashit Hantemirov, Leading Researcher of the Laboratories of Dendrochronology of the Ural Branch of the RAS and Natural Science Methods in the Humanities of UrFU.

Independently of the period length considered (from 30 to 170 years), the most recent period was the warmest. Not only the temperature has reached unprecedented warm levels, but also the rate of temperature increase (i.e. since the last 160-170) hasn't been as fast as after the middle of the 19th century.

"The exceptionality of the modern warming is corroborated by observations that the last century was characterized by a total lack of cold extremes contrasted by the occurrence of 27 extreme warm years, 19 of which have fallen in the last 40 years," specifies Rashit Hantemirov.



... Stepan Shiyatov, a pioneer of dendrochronology in Russia, was the first who recognized the value of the ancient trees found on the Yamal Peninsula. Together with colleagues from the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, he began 40 years ago with the systematic collections of the subfossil wood. Since then, more than two dozen expeditions have been carried out; with a current collection of more than 5,000 samples, which tree-ring widths have been measured, and which samples are currently archived at the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology.

Approximately 2,000 samples of larch and spruce subfossils have also been dated (with the cross-dating method). This allowed to assign with absolute accuracy the year of formation of each annual ring over the last 8,800 years, being now the longest tree-ring chronology of the polar regions.



Rashit M. Hantemirov et al, Current Siberian heating is unprecedented during the past seven millennia, Nature Communications (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32629-x
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #144 on: August 26, 2022, 03:49:24 PM »
This is amazing and fascinating work; I suspect it can be reproduced in other sub-polar places and used to understand the responses of vegetation (and thus fauna) to the climate crisis.

Stephan

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #145 on: August 26, 2022, 06:27:34 PM »
Thank you vox mundi for sharing this work with us.
I clearly see a hockey stick like curve of the temperatures.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #146 on: November 06, 2022, 07:47:33 PM »
Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co-influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons

"The summers of 2019, 2020 and 2021 experienced unprecedented fire activity in northeastern Siberia, driven by record-high spring and summer temperatures. Many of these fires burned in permafrost peatlands within the Arctic Circle. Here, we show that early snowmelt together with an anomalous Arctic front jet over northeastern Siberia promoted unusually warm and dry surface conditions, followed by anomalously high lightning and fire activity. Since 1966, spring snowmelt has started 1.7 days earlier each decade. Moreover, Arctic front jet occurrences in summer have more than tripled in frequency over the last 40 years. These interconnected climatological drivers promote extreme fire activity in eastern Siberia, including a northward shift of fires, which may accelerate the degradation of carbon-rich permafrost peatlands."

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn4419

edit: mod please move to arctic wildfires thread
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1232.msg335644/boardseen.html#new



jet dynamics

morganism

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #147 on: March 30, 2023, 11:48:43 PM »
PBS Nova re-airing the Siberian Blow Hole show again first week of April, wed here.

prokaryotes

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #148 on: June 01, 2023, 01:39:23 PM »
PBS Nova re-airing the Siberian Blow Hole show again first week of April, wed here.

A very good video by PBS. Most concerning, they found a lake which probably leaks methane through a fault line crack - Easy Lake methane escapes probably through fault lines nearby and Alaska is very active in terms of seismicity. This undermines the notion that permafrost will be a gradual release. At least in the Alaska regions with high seismicity one may look for fault line methane seepage.

PBS: Arctic Sinkholes
https://earthclimate.tv/video/arctic-sinkholes/

prokaryotes

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Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« Reply #149 on: June 01, 2023, 01:43:18 PM »
When we look at the geology of the region we see it containing some ancient fault zones that reach out into the shelf seas off Siberia so what starts on the land could transfer out into the East Siberian Sea and place us in a very bad position!


They found in Alaska at Easy Lake a fault line crack..

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,926.msg369831.html#msg369831