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Apocalypse4Real

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Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« on: July 22, 2014, 11:25:35 PM »
While some have posted recently that there is little news on Arctic methane research this summer, that does not seem to be the case.

I have summarised the major expeditions and resources that will be of interest, especially the SWERUS-C3 expedition that is now underway till October.

http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-arctic-methane-research-underway.html

They have already found 100 new methane seeps in the Laptev Sea.

This research seems to warrant its own topic, since I think we will be following it for some months to come.

morganism

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2014, 12:41:52 AM »
Thanks for the link back.

Had found it before on this forum, but the threads run so broad and deep , i couldn't find again.
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ghoti

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2014, 01:03:25 AM »
The question usually raised is can the methane bubbling from seeps on the bottom make it to the sea surface and mix into the air. Appears to be happening in the Laptev according to the SWERUS measurements this week.

http://polar.se/blogg/mega-flare/

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2014, 02:24:34 AM »
Thanks ghoti,

I added that resource into my blog post.

A4R

Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2014, 02:14:55 PM »
It's exciting that in the first two days they already have a new hypothesis for what's been happening in the ESAS:

"It has recently been documented that a tongue of relatively varm Atlantic water, with a core at depths of 200–600 m may have warmed up some in recent years. As this Atlantic water, the last remnants of the Gulf Stream, propagates eastward along the upper slope of  the East Siberian margin, our SWERUS-C3 program is hypothesizing that this heating may lead to destabilization of upper portion of the slope methane hydrates. This may be what we now for the first time are observing. "
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2014, 04:00:50 PM »
A video explaining what SWERUS-C3 is all about.



See also the other videos on their YouTube channel
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2014, 08:18:55 PM »
Thanks Jim,

I'll watch later - after I get through the Shakhova interview.

A4R

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2014, 08:20:01 PM »
I've added a new blogpost updating the information on the megaflare.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-methane-releases-at-laptev.html


TerryM

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2014, 11:40:44 PM »
Just a link to SWERUS-C3's home page.
http://www.swerus-c3.geo.su.se/


Terry

Xulonn

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2014, 01:10:06 AM »
Just a link to SWERUS-C3's home page.
http://www.swerus-c3.geo.su.se/

Terry
Thanks Terry.  The science crew's blogs look interesting, and I am just starting to read them.  It will be an interesting look into the daily workings of a major scientific expedition on what I see as a critical aspect of the AGW/CC event. 

David van Harn, a.k.a. Xulonn
Retired Expat.
Boquete, Chiriqui, Panama   


Jim Hunt

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2014, 09:05:53 AM »
The Oden in ice breaking mode:

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NeilT

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2014, 12:29:21 PM »
That ice looks about 6" thick.  but will show on the overheads as both extent and area...
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zworld

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2014, 07:11:29 PM »
I'll watch later - after I get through the Shakhova interview.

Is there a written transcript of her interview. Ive tried to listen to a couple of different sites and I can not understand alot of what she says.

Is this correct. Is she saying that large areas of the shallower hydrates have already dissociated, areas they thought would take many years to melt out,
AND
that releases are currently increasing.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2014, 08:06:07 PM »
Somewhat more forceful icebreaking a few years ago, also from the Oden's perspective:



The 50 let Pobedy went to the North Pole a couple of days ago.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2014, 05:13:57 AM »
The two attached images are from the following Earthsky website:

http://earthsky.org/earth/scientists-discover-vast-methane-plumes-escaping-from-arctic-seafloor

The first image from the Laptev Sea slope (in 62m of water), shows “elevated methane levels, about 10 times higher than background seawater.”

The second image shows the route of the Oden.
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6roucho

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2014, 05:34:48 PM »
Somewhat more forceful icebreaking a few years ago, also from the Oden's perspective:



The 50 let Pobedy went to the North Pole a couple of days ago.

I've been on her sister ship the Yamal in rather more forceful icebreaking circumstances than that!

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2014, 01:34:17 PM »
SWERUS-C3 expedition continues to find methane leaking from the sea floor, but now also CO2 that is venting to the atmosphere.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/08/swerus-c-3-more-arctic-methane-found.html



Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2014, 05:08:26 PM »
Is there a written transcript of her interview. Ive tried to listen to a couple of different sites and I can not understand alot of what she says.

Cross-posting this, but it may be helpful. I think my bit of Ukrainian study helps me understand Shakhova. We've been discussing it on the 'This is not good' thread, too. http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,484.msg30626.html#new

My synopsis of the 45 minute interview:


Very interesting that she argues clearly against geoengineering, going so far as to joke about it. She said, what are we to do, flip the poles so we get the climate of Antarctica in the Arctic? I suspect she's succeeded in talking AMEG out of pushing this idea. I see all the links to their 'strategic plan' are dead now.

It all sounds seriously 'not good'.

Surprises to me (and I've been following her and Semiletov since 2010):

    The part of the East Siberian Arctic Sea closest to shore has only been under water a geologically short time. On this winter's expedition they were surprised to find the permafrost there at the thawing point rather that at the expected minus 7. It should be more stable than the deeper areas.

    Shakhova and Semiletov were doing research on the ESAS in 1998 when they found a single highly concentrated plume of methane. This is what started their dogged search for the answers about the methane that's supposed to be sealed under permafrost.

    She seems to be frustrated that other scientists don't understand that methane hydrates in southern oceans release themselves through oxidation slowly and through a deep water column, where in the case of the ESAS the pure methane gas is released straight to the atmosphere thorough physical pathways (openings in the thawing permafrost) and a shallow water column over the shelf.

    There is a fault/rift that makes catastrophic release a possibility, which would immediately raise the global average temperature 3 degrees.

    They've been very conservative in their estimates of just how many gigatonnes of methane there may be trapped under the permafrost, basing it on the equivalent area on the land-based permafrost. It could go a few kilometers deep or MANY.

    The expedition this summer is making a single line across the arctic. She wishes the international scientific community would share in a project to continuously monitor the vast expanse with observation stations.


The gist of the interview is that things have been changing very fast.
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zworld

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2014, 07:51:34 PM »
Very interesting that she argues clearly against geoengineering, going so far as to joke about it. She said, what are we to do, flip the poles so we get the climate of Antarctica in the Arctic? I suspect she's succeeded in talking AMEG out of pushing this idea. I see all the links to their 'strategic plan' are dead now.

It all sounds seriously 'not good'.

Surprises to me (and I've been following her and Semiletov since 2010):

    The part of the East Siberian Arctic Sea closest to shore has only been under water a geologically short time. On this winter's expedition they were surprised to find the permafrost there at the thawing point rather that at the expected minus 7. It should be more stable than the deeper areas.........

The gist of the interview is that things have been changing very fast.

Thanks Lynn. So what I could make out was true. No, not good at all.

TenneyNaumer

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2014, 06:11:35 AM »
Shakhova has only peripheral contact with AMEG and has not tried to talk them out of pushing geoengineering solutions for cooling the Arctic.  (I am not stating my own opinion on this idea.) Stephen Salter and others are still actively trying to work out a cloud brightening method, among others. 

If links are broken on the AMEG webpage, this is likely due to changing webmasters and other similar things.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2014, 02:08:28 PM »
Just posted this on the other thread but maybe it's better off here?

Is it me or did Oden fall silent about their science results after their first press release? They are now approaching the end of their survey and we have had but one science press release about methane plumes and then nothing? The blogs hint at the work going well and the data amassing but no hint at what the general trend in the findings are?

I kinda thought that once we got into the ESS they would be eager to share their results but it appears we will have to wait until the studies are all finished , written up and published before we get any idea of what they have been encountering at the sampling stations?

Maybe I'm just looking in the wrong places? If so could someone give me a 'heads up'?
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Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2014, 02:37:08 PM »
From looking at the crew blogs occasionally, it seems they've struggled around ice and fog, been busy with all sorts of difficult measuring equipment. They're gathering data. I haven't expected conclusions.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2014, 10:57:28 PM »
Hi L.S.!

I wasn't looking for conclusions but thought if they came across anything 'startling' that they would post on its appearance? As it is all seems quite normal? I do not know what I was expecting but maybe that they would find more than one area of active plumes to comment on?

I must take the time to make it plain that this was my own interpretation but i thought , after the past proff S surveys, that we might have  seen a continuation of the 'chimney structure expansion or even active venting in the area of those chimney formations?

 As it is all is quiet and I get the feeling that  I should either put my concerns to bed or consider the possibility that we are not being told of any 'exceptional behaviours' discovered due to 'protocol' ( don't put out unnecessary frighteners'?) already agreed upon before the mission set sail?

or am I just sounding crazy?
KOYAANISQATSI

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Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2014, 01:08:52 AM »
Naaah, there are 100 scientists on that ship. Let's allow them time to compile and consolidate. There will be a paper in the fall, I'm sure. Shakhova's glad to have this mission, but what she really wishes for is hundreds of monitoring stations beaming out info all the time. Running across a plume is something, but it's not the whole picture. They're looking for patterns, not incidents.
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zworld

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2014, 11:40:35 PM »
As it is all is quiet and I get the feeling that  I should either put my concerns to bed or consider the possibility that we are not being told of any 'exceptional behaviours' discovered due to 'protocol' ( don't put out unnecessary frighteners'?) already agreed upon before the mission set sail?

or am I just sounding crazy?

I have a feeling that their report will be very informative. They are currently putting together a rough outline summary that will be available shortly. In the meantime the expulsion of methane from the ESS continues. Sam Carana has a good piece at his Arctic News site. In the last week methane levels in the atmosphere have been very high.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/08/horrific-methane-eruptions-in-east-siberian-sea.html

Here is an excerpt.

"Horrific Methane Eruptions in East Siberian Sea

A catastrophe of unimaginable propertions is unfolding in the Arctic Ocean. Huge quantities of methane are erupting from the seafloor of the East Siberian Sea and entering the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean."

Neven

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #25 on: August 14, 2014, 11:55:51 PM »
Be careful, Carana doesn't shun hyperbole, to put it mildly. Keep that in mind.
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Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #26 on: August 15, 2014, 01:23:51 AM »
Neven's right. Carana has separated from the team he used to be part of, as I understand it.
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zworld

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #27 on: August 15, 2014, 05:02:31 PM »
Be careful, Carana doesn't shun hyperbole, to put it mildly. Keep that in mind.

I agree. At the same time what should we feel in this situation. I don't agree with his action plan, especially the part about using geo engineering and trying to relocate methane hydrate beds, which is impossible as they would dissociate. But I feel his passion and concern, and am scared with the situation we are in. Methane is the hidden dragon, and I too feel that we are right now at the point of no return, and just watching and waiting for the next shoe to drop is the worst thing we could do. Whether it's fugitive emissions from O&G ops or methane dissociation from hydrates, the MSM refuses to acknowledge the dangerous situation, and maybe the Caranas and Hansens of the world are our last hope.

James Hansen has been showing the way for sometime, but just a few dissenters taking action isnt enough. We need the rest of the scientists of the world to join him and put their bodies on the line. Trying to prove deniers wrong is wasting time. We need to shut down the fossil fuel demons before it's too late or we will be saying too late that it's getting too late.

Sorry about the rant but like I said, Im scared, and I dont scare easily.

zworld

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2014, 05:20:50 PM »
I think this is why there hasn't been a follow up to their first posting of methane release. They were only doing real time tracking for a couple of days. Leg 2 starting soon however will track 24/7 (I believe is what the poster is saying).

"This combination of real-time methane-in-air data and methane-in-water data allowed for some days of “methane hunting” (looking for areas of very high methane) earlier during Leg 1 of SWERUS-C3........
Our equipment will run in nearly unattended mode, with some daily monitoring, during Leg 2 of SWERUS-C3."

Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #29 on: August 20, 2014, 05:40:13 PM »
Well, then. That's more than I hoped for.
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viddaloo

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2014, 11:25:05 PM »
Interesting to see Stockholm University playing such an important part in this scientific endeavour. Sweden was, after all, the home of the 'inventor' of Greenhouse Effect, Svante Arrhenius, the Nobel Prize winning chemist who published his Über den Einflüß des Atmosphärischen Kohlensäurengehalts auf die Temperatur der Erdoberfläche in Stockholm in 1896.

Too bad they had to roll out 10 million Volvos in the meantime.
[]

Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« Reply #31 on: August 21, 2014, 12:25:55 AM »
Good one, Viddaloo.
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