Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: What's new in models?  (Read 3514 times)


  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2921
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 59
What's new in models?
« on: September 11, 2015, 12:26:50 PM »
The sea ice orchestra

Since 2012, several new parameterisation schemes have been incorporated into sea ice models, including:

Melt ponds (accumulation of melt water on the ice surface).
Brine drainage through sea ice.
Atmospheric/oceanic form drag (obstructions to air/water flow caused by the variable ice morphology).
Anisotropic rheology (ice stresses in specific directions determined by ice floe shape).
Lateral melt which accounts for variable sea ice floes.

Huge advances have been made in recent years, but there is still some way to go before we can reliable simulate and predict the fate of the Arctic sea ice cover.


  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What's new in models?
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2018, 11:29:45 PM »
At the risk of hi-jacking this old thread...

1)  Why does SIPN try to predict September minimum extent instead of area?  Seems like area would be slightly easier to predict and might be slightly more interesting?

2)  Is there a good data source for May Melt Pond fraction?  Pretty much any number that has been gathered over "many" years that describes may melt ponds in some fashion?

3)  Are there other easy-to-use data sources for simple parameters?  June SST say?

The motivation here is that Rob Dekker has an interesting model that incorporates june area, june extent, and june snow cover.  Kinda makes you wonder if there are some other easy to grab parameters to see if they might be as useful as snow cover in making forecasts.


  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4376
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 631
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: What's new in models?
« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2019, 01:11:56 PM »


  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
    • View Profile
    • NSIDC Daily
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: What's new in models?
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2019, 01:12:15 PM »

For the weather crowd, the main GFS will be upgrading on June 12th to use the long-running FV3-GFS, and the currently running GFS will no longer be available.

Both are for now available on tropical tidbits, but FV3 currently has limited regional maps.


  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5186
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2634
  • Likes Given: 398
Re: What's new in models?
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2019, 06:13:39 PM »
NOAA Upgrades the U.S. Global Weather Forecast Model

NOAA's flagship weather model—the Global Forecast System (GFS)—is undergoing a significant upgrade today to include a new dynamical core called the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3). This upgrade will drive global numerical weather prediction into the future with improved forecasts of severe weather, winter storms, and tropical cyclone intensity and track.

NOAA research scientists originally developed the FV3 as a tool to predict long-range weather patterns at time frames ranging from multiple decades to interannual, seasonal and subseasonal. In recent years, creators of the FV3 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory expanded it to also become the engine for NOAA's next-generation operational GFS.

The scientific and performance evaluation shows that the upgraded FV3-based GFS provides results equal to or better than the current global model in many measures. This upgrade establishes the foundation to further advancements in the future as we improve observation quality control, data assimilation, and the model physics.

"We are excited about the advancements enabled by the new GFS dynamical core and its prospects for the future," said Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., director, NOAA's National Weather Service. "Switching out the dynamical core will have significant impact on our ability to make more accurate 1-2 day forecasts and increase the level of accuracy for our 3-7 day forecasts. However, our job doesn't end there—we also have to improve the physics as well as the data assimilation system used to ingest data and initialize the model."

Operating a new and sophisticated weather model requires robust computing capacity. In January 2018, NOAA augmented its weather and climate supercomputing systems to increase performance by nearly 50 percent and added 60 percent more storage capacity to collect and process weather, water and climate observations. This increased capacity enabled the parallel testing of the FV3-based GFS throughout the year.

The retiring version of the model will no longer be used in operations but will continue to run in parallel through September 2019 to provide model users with data access and additional time to compare performance.


New Engine Is Driving NOAA’s Flagship Weather Forecast Model
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1529
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 647
  • Likes Given: 523
Re: What's new in models?
« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2019, 09:08:47 PM »
I have referred to meteociel for my daily gfs model for @ 10 years .. they have changed to GFS-FV3 (15.1) which is entirely different in outlook to Topical Titbits GFS-FV3 version 15 .. the latter routinely has lows deeper . Version 15.1 seems much more like the old gfs model . Anyone else notice diferrences ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...