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Author Topic: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?  (Read 156464 times)

Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #150 on: April 22, 2013, 04:47:03 PM »
There's cracks wherever you look these days. The full HYCOM/CICE shows the Laptev Sea ones opening up, though they now seem to refreezing.

In the meantime here's some new ones in the Nord area:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #151 on: April 22, 2013, 06:32:37 PM »
P.S. The US Navy are forecasting some more long cracks in the near future. This closeup is for the 28th.
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #152 on: April 24, 2013, 11:20:48 PM »
Looking here http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/nh.html and going through the animation step by step it's arguable that atlantic waters have reached through to barrow probable cause of Juans crack on the way, but with the full moon giving higher tides and this fresh source of heat we could be in for a very interesting week in the Canadian arctic.

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #153 on: April 26, 2013, 01:22:14 AM »
And now there's plenty of open water in the Chukchi Sea:

Worldview's take
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #155 on: April 29, 2013, 06:18:59 PM »
Sigmetnow;

Yes it looks like a close up of nylon stockings, with all this melt surface this ice will disappear at record time.
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slow wing

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #156 on: April 29, 2013, 11:59:53 PM »
Is it unusual for this time of year?


Here is the corresponding image for last year - though a few days later, 8 May, as that is the first date available...
http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?map=-1257600,-35200,-115840,833152&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_coastlines&time=2012-05-08&switch=arctic

The ice in the 2012 image looks more broken up to me.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #157 on: April 30, 2013, 10:33:12 PM »
Is it unusual for this time of year?
...
The ice in the 2012 image looks more broken up to me.

slow wing,

Perhaps.

But with, for example, the major ice drift this winter, the early Feb-March fracturing event(s) -- and a record amount of early melting, documented this week in the Forum’s CTA April Poll thread -- an Arctic Situation that is worse today than last year seems quite likely.  So we watch for clues.

While it may not offer proof one way or the other, my point was that the image is striking. 
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #158 on: May 02, 2013, 01:51:10 PM »
The Chukchi froze over again. Some of the Laptev polynyas have opened again. Things seem to have started melting in earnest in what we should perhaps now call the Far North Atlantic?

Meanwhile the clouds have cleared from the east coast of Baffin Island to reveal this:

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #159 on: May 02, 2013, 03:09:28 PM »
There's a low to the west and a high to the east pushing that lot northeast, and with the high in the pacific I'm guessing that's why the Atlantic water is backing up near the pole causing the thinning there, which I think hints it's close to the surface.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #160 on: May 02, 2013, 10:47:51 PM »
And this lot's opened up since yesterday, around Kap Morris Jesup:

Image courtesy of Worldview
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #161 on: May 13, 2013, 06:47:29 PM »
A very heavy crack is showing up between Amundsen Gulf (Beaufort Sea) and Ellesmere right now, and several cracks parallel to that :

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2013133131000-2013133131500.2km.jpg
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #162 on: May 13, 2013, 06:55:07 PM »
Espen,

Coastal Flaw Lead.

Low pressure over Alaska due to move over Beaufort drawing strong winds offshore driving the ice away from the coast.

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #163 on: May 14, 2013, 01:27:12 AM »
A very heavy crack is showing up between Amundsen Gulf (Beaufort Sea) and Ellesmere right now, and several cracks parallel to that :

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2013133131000-2013133131500.2km.jpg

It's a big 'un, well over a thousand kilometers in length. Impressive. The full picture:

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #164 on: May 14, 2013, 09:31:29 AM »
Yes, but switch to 2012, same spot!

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #165 on: May 14, 2013, 09:46:29 AM »
Wanderer;

I am aware of that crack/opening from 2012 the big difference is this one goes all the way across Ellesmere Island, and what it misses of open water is leveled of by the Siberian opening.
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Whit

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #166 on: May 14, 2013, 09:51:23 AM »
Pretty soon we should start to get the answer to what role the cracking events this winter will play. I have a feeling they will be a major player. The cracks are weaknesses, and have generally lower albedo than solid ice. We should see the old cracks opening up again. And in some areas there are a lot more of them than we can see at the moment.

Snapshot near the Pole, May 16th 2012.

Same area, May 14th 2013.
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #167 on: May 14, 2013, 02:05:31 PM »
I'd not considered the albedo impacts? with much of the ice cemented together by young ice once melting begins in earnest will we not see a dramatic drop in albedo of the central pack (normally pretty high albedo for contiguous ice?)?

The other thing that comes with a very fragmented pack is a lessening of the dampening from swells. will this lead to more overwash and edge melt over the early season?
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Whit

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #168 on: May 14, 2013, 03:03:10 PM »
I'd not considered the albedo impacts? with much of the ice cemented together by young ice once melting begins in earnest will we not see a dramatic drop in albedo of the central pack (normally pretty high albedo for contiguous ice?)?

The other thing that comes with a very fragmented pack is a lessening of the dampening from swells. will this lead to more overwash and edge melt over the early season?
The albedo-impacts from refrozen cracks are clearly visible from space, so I suspect they will play a part as insolation increases. I am wondering what it does for melt-pond formation.

When it comes to your second paragraph, my experience with ice is that once you get to a certain stage of fragmentation it all just disappears really fast, at least partially for the reasons you mentioned. There is also the issue of volume vs. surface area that needs to be considered.

Whether we are close to the disintegration-stage now is a completely different question and I'm not competent to answer it. However, a visible inspection can say a fair bit about ice-quality, and it seems to be decreasing year for year. Additionally, if the porosity increases as the thickness decreases we are in for rapid change.

All IMHO.
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #169 on: May 14, 2013, 03:34:04 PM »
Interesting video from Weather.com by Jeff Masters addressing the potential melt and impllications:

http://bcove.me/obq3kp72

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #170 on: May 15, 2013, 05:47:09 AM »
Espen,

Coastal Flaw Lead.

Low pressure over Alaska due to move over Beaufort drawing strong winds offshore driving the ice away from the coast.

Also occurred on the day of the New Moon. The coastal fast-ice usually breaks of on the Spring tide.

Again, we have to be looking for horizontal displacement of the pack ice. This MYI will not all melt in place. But if it is advected South to the Beaufort sea, then see'ya!  :o
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #172 on: May 16, 2013, 04:28:10 PM »
The crack is now reaching from Amundsen Gulf ( Beaufort Sea) all the way to Flade Isblink ( North East Greeland ): http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2013136102500-2013136103000.4km.jpg
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #173 on: May 16, 2013, 05:36:41 PM »
As ASCAT shows, a lot of it has been transported to Beaufort.

001 2013
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2013001.sir.gif

134 2013
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2013134.sir.gif

out interest how much volume and extent is being shown to have pushed out Beaufort?

I'm sadly only an interested layman in terms of understanding.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #174 on: May 16, 2013, 06:42:53 PM »
Siffy,

I don't know, all I can do is point to a qualitative argument. I've not got ImageJ on my laptop at the moment, I think that might be able to help work out the area/extent.

As for volume. PIOMAS doesn't differentiate between first-year and multi-year. I have to use thickness as a rough proxy for that, and since 2010 the thicker ice hasn't been at such volumes that it makes the multi-year ice stand out. What we have from PIOMAS is the average grid box thickness (actually 'effective thickness'), a grid box may contain some older thicker ice and some younger thinner ice.

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #175 on: May 17, 2013, 12:39:34 AM »
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrc.20191/abstract may have been posted elsewhere already, but I didn't see it and this topic seems like a suitable place.  Title/abstract:

"Arctic sea ice circulation and drift speed: Decadal trends and ocean currents

"We examine the basinwide trends in sea ice circulation and drift speed and highlight the
changes between 1982 and 2009 in connection to regional winds, multiyear sea ice
coverage, ice export, and the thinning of the ice cover. The polarity of the Arctic Oscillation
(AO) is used as a backdrop for summarizing the variance and shifts in decadal drift patterns.
The 28-year circulation fields show a net strengthening of the Beaufort Gyre and the
Transpolar Drift, especially during the last decade. The imprint of the arctic dipole anomaly
on the mean summer circulation is evident (2001–2009) and enhances summer ice area export
at the Fram Strait. Between 2001 and 2009, the large spatially averaged trends in drift speeds
(winter: +23.6%/decade, summer: +17.7%/decade) are not explained by the much smaller
trends in wind speeds (winter: 1.46%/decade, summer: -3.42%/decade). Notably, positive
trends in drift speed are found in regions with reduced multiyear sea ice coverage. Over 90%
of the Arctic Ocean has positive trends in drift speed and negative trends in multiyear sea ice
coverage. The increased responsiveness of ice drift to geostrophic wind is consistent with a
thinner and weaker seasonal ice cover and suggests large-scale changes in the air-ice-ocean
momentum balance. The retrieved mean ocean current field from decadal-scale average ice
motion captures a steady drift from Siberia to the Fram Strait, an inflow north of the Bering
Strait, and a westward drift along coastal Alaska. This mean current is comparable to
geostrophic currents from satellite-derived dynamic topography."

So it's all speeding up, further setting the stage for a quick exit.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #176 on: May 17, 2013, 02:15:21 AM »
If you hit "Quote" on Steve's post you'll be able to see a correctly formatted version of the paper summary.

A summary of the summary - transport speed has been increasing and it's likely because the ice is thinner.

Steve Bloom

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #177 on: May 17, 2013, 03:00:04 AM »
If you hit "Quote" on Steve's post you'll be able to see a correctly formatted version of the paper summary.

A summary of the summary - transport speed has been increasing and it's likely because the ice is thinner.

Hmm, it looks fine to me as is, Bob.  Browser difference?

And just to be clear, currents have sped up in addition to the ice.  Even if the former had not, it appears that the thinning would have resulted in the latter doing so anyway (albeit not as much).

Bob Wallace

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #178 on: May 17, 2013, 06:30:47 AM »
Chrome.

The line 'returns' are too long for the space.  I get a long line and then a couple of word in the next line.  Then another long line, etc.

"We examine the basinwide trends in sea ice circulation and drift speed
and highlight the
changes between 1982 and 2009 in connection to regional winds,
multiyear sea ice
coverage, ice export, and the thinning of the ice cover. The polarity of
the Arctic Oscillation

I've run into this problem when copying from some sites.  The workaround seems to be "Paste as plain text".  That strips out the formatting.

« Last Edit: May 17, 2013, 06:37:15 AM by Bob Wallace »

wili

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #179 on: May 17, 2013, 02:56:35 PM »
The format was fine for me, too.

What accounts for the increase in the speeds of the currents? Does this further support the idea that more warm Atlantic water is getting into the Arctic?
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #180 on: May 17, 2013, 06:32:41 PM »
The format was fine for me, too.

What accounts for the increase in the speeds of the currents? Does this further support the idea that more warm Atlantic water is getting into the Arctic?

No, it's got nothing to do with it. To quote from the abstract (which formats OK in IE)....

Quote
The 28-year circulation fields show a net strengthening of the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift, especially during the last decade. The imprint of the arctic dipole anomaly on the mean summer circulation is evident (2001–2009) and enhances summer ice area export at the Fram Strait.


So the wind driven features are strengthening.

Quote
Between 2001 and 2009, the large spatially averaged trends in drift speeds (winter: +23.6%/decade, summer: +17.7%/decade) are not explained by the much smaller trends in wind speeds (winter: 1.46%/decade, summer: -3.42%/decade).


But changes in wind speed are not causing the increased ice transport. So what is?

Quote
Notably, positive trends in drift speed are found in regions with reduced multiyear sea ice coverage. Over 90% of the Arctic Ocean has positive trends in drift speed and negative trends in multiyear sea ice coverage. The increased responsiveness of ice drift to geostrophic wind is consistent with a thinner and weaker seasonal ice cover and suggests large-scale changes in the air-ice-ocean momentum balance.

The final clear out of MYI, after decades of thinning, seems to be creating thinner, less massive (in the sense of mass of ice per square metre) ice cover. This means that it's easier for the wind to drive the movement of ice.

This looks like another job for HeisenIceBerg...  8)

wili

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #181 on: May 17, 2013, 06:36:45 PM »
Thanks for the clarification, Chris.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #182 on: May 17, 2013, 07:57:10 PM »
Quote
A summary of the summary - transport speed has been increasing and it's likely because the ice is thinner.

 ;)

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #183 on: May 17, 2013, 11:08:07 PM »
Not only does the crack run from the northern mouth of the Nares Strait to the Chukchi Sea, but you can make it our on the AMRS2 map.
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.pn

Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #184 on: May 23, 2013, 05:37:37 PM »
The Barents Observer reports that the Russian research station "North Pole 40" is in trouble:

Quote
Russia has ordered the urgent evacuation of the 16-strong crew of a drifting Arctic research station after ice floe that hosts the floating laboratory began to disintegrate, officials said.

The current position of NP40 is 81.7 N, 134.7 W
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ritter

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #185 on: May 23, 2013, 06:26:00 PM »
The Barents Observer reports that the Russian research station "North Pole 40" is in trouble:
Quote
The scientific research station was placed on the ice floe in October 2012 and was planned to stay there until September. Now the floe has already started to break apart and the crew has to be evacuated as soon as possible.

My emphasis. Looks like some areas are 4 months ahead of melt schedule!  :o

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #186 on: May 23, 2013, 06:35:55 PM »
The Barents Observer reports that the Russian research station "North Pole 40" is in trouble: ...
Quote
Donskoy suggests that the nuclear-powered icebreaker “Yamal” could evacuate the station from the floe and move it to Severnaya Zemlya.
Curent position of Yamal is unknown (to us). Hurry guys:



Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #187 on: May 23, 2013, 06:53:21 PM »
Curent position of  Yamal is unknown (to us). Hurry guys

According to SailWX however, Yamal's position at 2013-May-23 06:00 was N 76°06' E 068°18'

A long way to go at the current average speed of 1.0 knots!
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ghoti

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #188 on: May 23, 2013, 07:26:04 PM »
Buoy 2012G is colocated with the station.

http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012G.htm


ivica

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #189 on: May 23, 2013, 08:24:37 PM »
however, Yamal's position at 2013-May-23 06:00 was N 76°06' E 068°18'
Bravo Jim,
maybe current position is not too bad ...

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #190 on: May 23, 2013, 10:02:59 PM »
There's now a blog post on the ASIB concerning NP-40 as well.
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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #191 on: May 26, 2013, 01:56:28 PM »
The Yamal does not seem to go for a rescue!?
http://sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=UCJT

Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #192 on: May 26, 2013, 03:11:41 PM »
The Yamal does not seem to go for a rescue!?

That's because, according to Russia Today at least, it's not due to set off on its "rescue mission" until the end the month:

Quote
The Yamal nuclear-powered icebreaker is scheduled to leave for the drifting polar station on May 31, and it will take the ship about 10 days to reach NP-40.
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ghoti

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #193 on: June 03, 2013, 09:09:23 PM »
Buoy 2012G and the NP40 website both show the barometric pressure bombing out today. Passing 991 so far on it's way down. Have to wonder how much worse the ice fragmentation around the research camp can get.

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #194 on: June 03, 2013, 10:02:28 PM »
Thanks, ghoti. I knew the cyclone moved to that zone, but forgot about NP-40. I used this compilation of the ECMWF 6-day forecast for my latest post on the ASIB:



The cyclone could reach 980 hPa tomorrow, if I'm reading the map correctly, with 985 hPa after that. And then the cyclone should move away again.
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #195 on: June 06, 2013, 07:32:56 PM »
Chris and all,

For those interested in high pressure ridging impact on the Arctic and global climate, there is a 1 hour live streamed Climate Desk broadcase at 4:30 EDT today featuring Jennifer Frances and Stu Ostro from Weather.com

See the article at: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/06/one-meteorologistss-come-jesus-moment-climate-change

The live stream link is in the box under the lead photo on the right side.

A4R

ritter

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #196 on: June 06, 2013, 10:13:27 PM »
Chris and all,

For those interested in high pressure ridging impact on the Arctic and global climate, there is a 1 hour live streamed Climate Desk broadcase at 4:30 EDT today featuring Jennifer Frances and Stu Ostro from Weather.com

See the article at: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/06/one-meteorologistss-come-jesus-moment-climate-change

The live stream link is in the box under the lead photo on the right side.

A4R

Anybody know if this will be available after the fact?

RaenorShine

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #197 on: June 06, 2013, 10:28:47 PM »
Several others presentations by climate desk live are available to watch after the event on http://climatedesk.org/category/climate-desk-live/, no specific mention on this one for definite though.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #198 on: June 07, 2013, 11:17:26 AM »
Some gaps in the cloud today, and some gaps in the ice too. Is this what the US Navy were predicting?
« Last Edit: June 08, 2013, 01:01:19 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Whit

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Re: Fragmentation Event. Will it have impact over the summer melt season?
« Reply #199 on: June 07, 2013, 11:50:16 AM »
This is from a cloudless area between Jim's image and CAA. I have increased contrast, lowered exposure and increased the details to show the degree of fragmentation that's going on. To me it seems much more fragmented than in August last season.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2013, 01:00:46 PM by Whit »
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