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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #200 on: April 18, 2015, 04:10:37 PM »
China is wealthy enough to buy more desalination plants, with large carbon footprints (see extract); & with growing water shortages around the world; the relatively small carbon footprint for desalination at the moment will likely grow.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060016593


Extract: "China has long been accused of using too much water to produce energy, but now some of its coastal cities are compounding this problem by planning for desalination, which will spike both their energy needs and their emissions.



There is also an issue of lack of awareness. Because carbon emissions from producing desalinated water are still insignificant compared with other industrial activities, Zhong said that Chinese officials have yet to pay enough attention to the climate impact of desalination plants. Besides that, the country has been desperately seeking water.
A 2012 government survey shows that nearly 90 percent of Chinese coastal cities face some degree of water scarcity. While recovering clean water from wastewater could help China alleviate its water shortage at relatively lower economic and environmental costs, Zhong said that the spread of this solution has been discouraged by public doubts about the quality of reclaimed water and qualms about its origin."
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Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #201 on: April 21, 2015, 08:28:56 PM »
Hundreds of Chinese Cities Don’t Meet Air Standards, Report Finds
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/22/world/asia/hundreds-of-chinese-cities-dont-meet-air-standards-report-finds.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Quote
The data shows that China, despite a recent drop in the growth rate of coal use, continues to have among the most polluted cities in the world, alongside urban centers in India and Iran.

jai mitchell

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #202 on: May 14, 2015, 06:31:37 PM »
China shuts down 1,250 coal mines

http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/05/07/2361s877697.htm


China reduces coal consumption by 8%

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2015/05/14/china-coal-consumption-drops-further-carbon-emissions-set-to-fall-by-equivalent-of-uk-total-in-one-year/

Quote
The reduction in emissions from 2014 to 2015 is roughly equal to the total CO2 emissions of the UK over four months, and the reduction in coal use is equal to four times UK total consumption.

If the reduction continues until the end of the year, it will be the largest recorded year-on-year reduction in coal use and CO2 in any country.

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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #203 on: May 14, 2015, 08:25:44 PM »
China shuts down 1,250 coal mines

http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/05/07/2361s877697.htm


China reduces coal consumption by 8%

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2015/05/14/china-coal-consumption-drops-further-carbon-emissions-set-to-fall-by-equivalent-of-uk-total-in-one-year/

Quote
The reduction in emissions from 2014 to 2015 is roughly equal to the total CO2 emissions of the UK over four months, and the reduction in coal use is equal to four times UK total consumption.

If the reduction continues until the end of the year, it will be the largest recorded year-on-year reduction in coal use and CO2 in any country.

With all of this great news about China, I look forward to being able to post a updated version of the attached AGGI plot (with data through the end of 2014, see link below) with data through 2015 that shows a marked reduction in the rate of increase of both the CO2-equivalent and the AGGI; if not I will assume that any cuts in GHG emissions made by China migrated to other (poorer) developing countries.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #204 on: May 14, 2015, 10:48:54 PM »
While we're waiting for ASLR's graph,  :) 
enjoy this one (from the Greenpeace article):
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Csnavywx

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #205 on: May 15, 2015, 01:04:13 AM »
Gotta think some of this is slowdown related. Electricity production figures are flat and might be in outright contraction soon. Steel, cement and construction figures are all way down. Import/export figures are also way down.

jai mitchell

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #206 on: May 20, 2015, 05:24:01 PM »
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-18/china-war-on-smog-seen-dooming-coal-amid-cheap-but-dirty-purge

Coal prices will never recover, ever

China Smog War Seen Dooming Coal on ‘Cheap But Dirty’ Purge
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #207 on: May 23, 2015, 05:18:30 PM »
China pollution: Beijing's improved air quality a result of good policy, city officials say
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-23/beijing-improved-air-quality-result-of-good-policy-say-officials/6492350
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #208 on: May 28, 2015, 09:10:10 PM »
However, lest you think that China's air pollution problems have been miraculously solved, this is from May 26:

Quote
@AirlineFlyer: The pollution in Beijing is the worst since I arrived. Can hardly see aircraft after they takeoff. It's so gross. [picture:] http://t.co/6Msh55ECrl
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #209 on: June 02, 2015, 04:09:04 AM »
I noticed this a few days ago:

Beijing’s About to Roll Out Its Harshest Smoking Ban Ever
Smoking will be banned everywhere from the Great Wall to Beijing’s bars starting June 1.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-29/beijing-s-about-to-roll-out-its-harshest-smoking-ban-ever

But now this:

How the Business of Cancer Is Taking Off in China
Quote
Overall cancer incidence in China has doubled over the past two decades fueled by an aging population, the lifestyle changes wrought by its economic boom, and a surge in environmental pollution.

The country is now home to more cases than any other, and the World Health Organization estimates that it adds 3.07 million new ones annually. Lung cancer is the most common type, and its prevalence is surging even as others such as stomach cancer that are associated with poverty level off.
...
Years of breakneck growth combined with unhealthy lifestyle factors, such as high smoking rates, are also making the cancer epidemic virtually unstoppable. Smokers may be even more likely to get lung cancer if they are exposed to high pollution levels or chemicals from coal mines, said Shelly Tse, an occupational and environmental health expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/selling-hope-how-the-business-of-cancer-is-taking-off-in-china
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #210 on: June 08, 2015, 07:53:07 PM »
China greenhouse gases: Progress is made, report says
Quote
China's greenhouse gas emissions could start to decline within 10 years, according to a report from the London School of Economics.
This would be five years earlier than expected and would offer a boost towards efforts to protect the climate.
The shift has been partly caused by a massive commitment to renewables. China is the world's top investor in wind and solar power.
It has also been replacing old coal plants with cleaner new stations.
...
They say China's actions will stimulate global markets for clean goods and services and harm exporters of coal and certain other raw materials.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33040965
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #211 on: July 02, 2015, 04:49:15 PM »
Climate pledge puts China on course to peak emissions as early as 2027
Quote
In the corridors of the Bonn climate talks in June, there was a sense that, perhaps in contrast to the ill-fated Copenhagen talks in 2009, China is strongly in favour of a deal in Paris. To the extent that it has been playing hardball on some issues, it is more a case of attempting to extract concessions rather than walking away completely.

So the Chinese pledge is being received as a positive, yet insufficient momentum-building step towards a deal -- and just maybe, leaving the door open for 2C.
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/07/climate-pledge-puts-china-on-course-to-peak-emissions-as-early-as-2027/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #212 on: July 06, 2015, 03:55:57 AM »
The linked article indicates that China's carbon intensity goals are inadequate:

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/03/china-climate-pledge-inadequate-on-efficiency-analysts/

Extract: "China has big plans for clean energy and is aiming to peak greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.
Climate Action Tracker, a coalition of four leading research bodies, gives it a “medium” grade for most of its national climate policies. That is on a par with the US and EU.
But on one critical measure – carbon intensity – the world’s biggest emitter is aiming too low, the analysts warn. Beijing has pledged to reduce the carbon emitted for each yuan of GDP 60-65% below 2005 levels by 2030.
That figure is “inadequate”, said Hanna Fekete of New Climate Institute. “The difference between China’s carbon intensity goal and its national actions and goals is disappointing.”"

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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #213 on: July 06, 2015, 07:40:17 PM »
According to the linked reference, Russia is working to develop its shale gas reserves within 15-years to better supply Asia, particularly including China, with more natural gas (which considering methane leaks can have a GHG footprint heavier than coal development):

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/06/19/is-russia-moving-towards-a-fracking-future/
Extract: "Last year, then-Nato chief Anders Rasmussen accused Russia, the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas, of spreading misinformation to destabilise shale.President Vladimir Putin said Russia needs to “rise to the challenge” of the changing market in 2012. In other words: if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.Russia is being pushed towards tapping shale and its other abundant unconventional gas deposits to preserve its stake in the global energy mix, experts say. Holder of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the country could have up to 2.5 times the amount in unconventional reserves – shale, hydrates and coal-bed methane – as conventional supplies, Gazprom estimates. Russia still holds five times the US’ natural gas reserves with 44.6 trillion cubic metres (tcm), according to BP’s 2014 statistical review. Just 3% of the approximate 680 tcm of unconventional is shale. And 90% of total unconventional resources are located on the Asian side of the country, from the Ural Mountains through Siberia to the remote Arctic regions.
Ten years after the US shale boom began, Russia is at least 15 years off commercial production, according to government projections. And amid plentiful supplies of natural gas, it doesn’t yet make economic sense, though geopolitical factors are weighing in. “Although the present conjuncture is not conducive to investments in the still locally unproven and expensive methods of obtaining energy resources, Russia is developing its unconventional gas industry more and more boldly,” according to a policy brief by the Polish Institute of Foreign Affairs (PISM).

Russia is looking toward Asian economies, from Indonesia and Vietnam to India and China, who are conducting research programmes in their own territories, as it pivots away from old markets in Europe, the brief said."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #214 on: July 06, 2015, 10:04:10 PM »

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/06/02/china-billions-drive-pakistan-coal-power-expansion/

Extract: "At home Beijing is looking beyond coal, but abroad it’s investing in expansion of world’s dirtiest fuel."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #215 on: July 10, 2015, 12:54:46 AM »
China eyes safe smart-grid system by 2020 to push clean energy
Quote
To expand capabilities, China will accelerate the construction of micro grids and promote the development of energy sources that don’t need transmission lines, including distributed solar projects and power from micro-gas generators, the NDRC said.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/07/07/asia-pacific/china-eyes-safe-smart-grid-system-2020-push-clean-energy/
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mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #216 on: July 10, 2015, 05:27:40 PM »
micro grids are a very interesting area of research and probably the way to go.
reducing transmission losses is a huge boost to energy conservation.

http://www.et.aau.dk/research-programmes/microgrids
and so it goes

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #217 on: July 11, 2015, 11:04:44 PM »
While I imagine that Chinese leaders are relatively serious about addressing climate change, the real question is where they are capable of reducing carbon intensity (the attached plot from the linked article shows just how high current Chinese carbon intensity is compared to developed countries) show at a faster rate than has ever been achieved by modern economies (it is nice to be positive but it is better to be realistic):

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/11/china-climate-change-greenhouse-united-states-policy/

Extract: "China will need a greater annual reduction rate of carbon intensity than most developed countries to reach its commitment of reducing carbon intensity by 60 to 65 percent by 2030. China would have to maintain a 3.6 to 4.1 percent annual reduction rate from 2005 to 2030. The U.S. rate since 1990 was 2.3 percent, and from 2005 to 2025 it would need to average 3.5 to 3.6 percent to reach the 26 to 28 percent total emissions reduction target as laid out in the U.S. climate pledge. The EU reduction rate since 1990 was also 2.3 percent, and the rate required to meet the EU goal of a 40 percent total emissions reduction in 2030 from 1990 levels would be 3.2 percent."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #218 on: July 19, 2015, 03:13:21 PM »
Quote
BEIJING, July 16 (Reuters) - Bringing coal use to a peak by 2020 could save China billions of dollars in environmental costs, slash water consumption by nearly 30 percent and prevent tens of thousands of deaths from coal-related illnesses, a study released on Thursday said.
http://www.trust.org/item/20150716074735-wga40/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #219 on: July 19, 2015, 05:22:03 PM »
While Beijing has managed to just avert a crisis in their stock market, China's corporate debt is in danger of getting out of control; and I imagine that as soon as China gets into financial trouble they will be sorely tempted to relax their voluntary climate change policies:

http://www.benchmarkreporter.com/chinas-corporate-debt-in-danger-of-getting-out-of-control/7024/

Extract: "The debts of manufacturers is continuing to dwarf their profits. In 2010, debts of material companies was at 2.8 times of their core profit. At the end of 2014, this figure was 5.3 times. In the case of energy companies, debt has gone up from 1.1 to 4.4 times the core profits. In industrials, the figure has risen from 2.5 to 4.2 times."
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wili

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #220 on: July 23, 2015, 09:51:35 PM »
Apologies if this has been posted before:

http://www.vox.com/2015/5/22/8645455/china-emissions-coal-drop

Be very, very wary of China's energy statistics

Quote
Case in point: back in the late 1990s, China announced it was shuttering a bunch of smaller, illegal coal mines, and early estimates suggested that nationwide coal use dropped 20 percent in 1998.

But it turned out that those coal mines didn't actually close, they just stopped reporting their numbers to the government. When BP reviewed the data years later, it turned out that China's coal use hadn't dropped at all in 1998

Quote
Similarly, in its most recent five-year census, China revised upward its estimate for coal use in 2013 by about 8 percent.

That's a massive edit
.

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JimD

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #221 on: July 24, 2015, 06:42:01 PM »
To reinforce willi's point.  What are the poor folks in China going to do to provide heat and make a little money on the side.  They will continue to operate illegal/clandestine coal mines.

This is going on in the US as well.  It is not uncommon in poor and rural Appalachia for folks to still be burning coal in their houses.  There are folks who operate very small coal operations and distribute the coal to make a few dollars. 

Punch coal stoves into g**gle.  There are a host of companies still making them, selling parts and so on.  Punch in coal for sale.  Tons of hits on companies, ebay, craigslist, and there is always the word of mouth sales out in the country. 

Poor people are going to burn what ever is cheapest.  Climate?  What's that?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #222 on: July 26, 2015, 02:45:48 AM »
China preparing 'California-style' scheme to promote green cars - Beijing Auto chairman
Quote
China is preparing a new scheme to encourage auto makers and consumers to use electric and hybrid vehicles, learning lessons from California's efforts to promote a similar switch, the head of a major state-owned carmaker said on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/23/china-autos-electric-vehicles-idUSL3N10340R20150723
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #223 on: July 26, 2015, 08:35:11 PM »
Be very, very wary of China's energy statistics
Soon we won't have to depend on a country's claims.  Detailed data from satellites will tell the truth about emissions.

Quote
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 went up in July [2014]. It takes more than a million measurements a day of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The data help scientists see where the CO2 is coming from, such as Asian coal plants, and also where it’s going — into the Northern Hemisphere’s boreal forests and the Amazon.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/nasa-is-just-killing-it-with-these-earth-watching-satellites

For example, here is NASA's page of OCO-2 articles.
http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/newsoco/index.cfm?Page=2
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #224 on: July 27, 2015, 01:01:12 PM »
The linked article indicates that China is underestimating the likely threat of climate change (& SLR) to its booming coastal cities:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/25/climate-change-threatens-chinas-booming-coastal-cities-says-expert

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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #225 on: July 27, 2015, 01:35:25 PM »
A (pessimistic) comparison of Beijing's air pollution problems and solutions with Los Angeles' in the 1960’s.  By the Los Angeles policymaker....
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1843735/chinas-ability-tackle-air-pollution-doubtful-says-vetern-us-policymaker
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #226 on: August 10, 2015, 01:18:41 AM »
China Gets a Little More Fresh Air
Idled factories, less coal use, and lower emissions make breathing easier.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-06/pollution-china-gets-a-little-more-fresh-air
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #227 on: August 10, 2015, 03:55:46 PM »
It looks like China's distortion of fair market pricing, threatens to slow the long-term, healthy, development of the solar market:


http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/clouds-over-chinas-solar-power-industry/


Extract: "“Solar is heading down a path of profitless prosperity”, says Sivaram. In effect, he says, China is subsidising the global solar industry.
Sivaram says one of the damaging side effects of China’s dominance of the solar market is that production has tended to stick to old technologies and innovation in the industry has been stifled.
“As panel manufacturers scrape by on razor-thin margins, kept afloat by government credit, investing in fundamentally new technologies is far from a priority.”"
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #228 on: August 10, 2015, 08:33:31 PM »
Yup China's emissions are likely to drop as there is a huge slowdown in manufacturing underway.  Their economy teeters on the brink of an actual recession (unheard of in China for at least a couple of decades).  There will be large adverse ripple effects across the world from this.  It is very hard to say how deep it goes but large economic disruption does not bode well for green solutions and lends large momentum towards permanent global contraction (i.e. collapse).   Such drops in emissions are not 'real' in the sense that there was some policy or technological improvement - just a business as usual collapse like in 2009.

The economic/business numbers are really ugly.  A very interesting side note is that Chinese companies are well into the off shoring of emissions and the search for 'cheaper' labor as the supply of Chinese labor is tightening and driving up wages.  So they are looking to off shore large amounts of production to places like India.  Thus some US emissions will become 3rd hand vice 2nd hand.

Quote
This has become a sign of the times: Foxconn, with 1.3 million employees the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer, making gadgets for Apple and many others, and with mega-production facilities in China, inked a memorandum of understanding on Saturday under which it would invest $5 billion over the next five years in India!

In part to alleviate the impact of soaring wages in China.....

The manufacturing sector is responsible for much of China’s economic growth. It accounted for 31% of GDP, according to the World Bank. And a good part of this production is exported. But that plan has now been obviated by events.

Exports plunged 8.3% in July from a year ago, disappointing once again the soothsayers surveyed by Reuters that had predicted a 1% drop. Exports to Japan plunged 13%, to Europe 12.3%. And exports to the US, which is supposed to pull the world economy out of its mire, fell 1.3%. So far this year, in yuan terms, exports are down 0.9% from the same period last year. As important as manufacturing is to China, this debacle is not exactly conducive to economic growth.

The General Administration of Customs, which issued the report, added: “We could see relatively strong downward pressure on exports in the third quarter.”

Then there’s the plunge of the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), which tracks contractual rates and spot market rates for shipping containers from major Chinese ports to major port around the world. Last week, the CCFI dropped 2.4% to 798.89, near its multi-year low at the beginning of July. It is now 23% below where it was in February, and 20% below where it had been in 1998, when it was set at 1,000!

The beaten-down shipping rates are a function of an oversupply of ships and weak global demand for goods manufactured in China. Today’s export numbers once again confirm the dynamics tracked by the freight index.

Another chilling data point: imports plummeted 8.1%, after having already dropped 6.1% in June. They’re down for the ninth month in a row, in part due to crashing commodity prices. Year-to-date, imports dropped 14.6% in yuan terms.

This caused China’s trade surplus to drop 8.5% from June, to $43.03 billion.

Producer prices in July dropped 5.4% year over year, down for the 40th month in a row, the National Statistics Bureau said on today. It pushed the Producer Price Index to the worst level since October 2009. Who gets the credit? Crashing commodity prices, competitive pressures facing Chinese manufacturers, and weak demand for Chinese goods....

I have said it elsewhere but it bears repeating.  We are right on the edge of a global recession.  Not a certainty but it would not take much to make it certain.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/08/wolf-richter-chinas-hard-landing-suddenly-gets-a-lot-rougher.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #230 on: August 14, 2015, 03:22:48 PM »
The linked open access reference indicates that air pollution causes roughly 17% of all deaths per year in China:

Robert A. Rohde, Richard A. Muller (2015), "Air Pollution in China: Mapping of Concentrations and Sources"


http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/China-Air-Quality-Paper-July-2015.pdf

Abstract: "China has recently made available hourly air pollution data from over 1500 sites, including airborne particulate matter (PM), SO2, NO2, and O3. We apply Kriging interpolation to four months of data to derive pollution maps for eastern China. Consistent with prior findings, the greatest pollution occurs in the east, but significant levels are widespread across northern and central China and are not limited to major cities or geologic basins. Sources of pollution are widespread, but are particularly intense in a northeast corridor that extends from near Shanghai to north of Beijing. During our analysis period, 92% of the population of China experienced >120 hours of unhealthy air (US EPA standard), and 38% experienced average concentrations that were unhealthy. China’s population-weighted average exposure to PM2.5 was 52 μg/m3. The observed air pollution is calculated to contribute to 1.6 million deaths/year in China [0.7–2.2 million deaths/year at 95% confidence], roughly 17% of all deaths in China."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #231 on: August 14, 2015, 08:03:54 PM »
And here's an article on the Berkeley study AbruptSLR just mentioned:

Air Pollution Killing 4,000 in China a Day, U.S. Study Finds
http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/air-pollution-killing-4-000-china-day-us-study-finds-n409516
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #232 on: August 20, 2015, 09:51:00 PM »
China Emits Less CO2 Than Anyone Thought, But It’s Still a Lot
Quote
The study concluded that China's energy consumption was 10 percent higher from 2000 to 2012 than figures reported by the Chinese government but that the emissions factors for Chinese coal are 40 percent lower than the global averages used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study also found that emissions from cement production in China are 45 percent less than recent estimates.  That led to the conclusion that China's emissions are 14 percent lower than previously reported.

"Initially we thought that carbon emissions may be underestimated because we found energy consumption is higher than the nationally reported figure," said lead author Zhu Liu a climate change specialist at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. "[But] because the emissions factor is much, much lower, the total number is still lower. This was quite surprising."
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/19082015/china-emissions-14-percent-less-thought-michael-mann
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #233 on: September 19, 2015, 12:14:10 PM »
The linked article discusses a newly release analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Admin. finding that China has consumed 14% more coal (over a somewhat more than the past decade) than previously thought:

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/09/17/chinas-coal-consumption-14-higher-than-previously-thought/

Extract: "A newly released analysis of Chinese government data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration found over the past decade-plus, China consumed as much as 14% more coal on an energy-content basis than previously reported. Its domestic coal production meanwhile was as much as 7% higher between 2000 and 2013."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #234 on: September 25, 2015, 09:00:50 PM »
Chinese President Details Wide-Ranging Carbon Pollution Pledge At White House
Quote
At a White House press conference Friday afternoon, U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a suite of wide-ranging actions that clarify how serious the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter is about cutting greenhouse gas emissions. These include prioritizing green energy on China’s grid, a cap-and-trade or emissions trading system for China, additional low-carbon financing to developing countries, and emissions standards for heavy duty vehicles. The fact that these announcements were made during the world’s most important bilateral meeting and official state visit lends them further significance.
The linked article details the above pledges, and an update to the article states:
Quote
China also committed to a $3.1 billion international climate finance fund for low-carbon development. “This is by far China’s most significant commitment to climate finance to date,” the fact sheet said, comparable to the $3 billion U.S. commitment. The fact sheet also said China was “affirming that 50 percent of new buildings in urban areas will meet green building standards by 2020.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/25/3705464/us-china-climate-visit-pledges/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #235 on: September 27, 2015, 03:39:25 PM »
Per the attached article, if China can show that cap and trade works in their economy after 2017, then perhaps they can export the idea to the US Congress so that they can remember how to use the policy tool that the USA invented (although I would prefer that the USA implement a carbon fee and dividend program, so that we can show the Chinese how to make the capitalistic system work, rather than vice versa). 

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-can-china-achieve-with-cap-and-trade
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #236 on: September 27, 2015, 09:13:37 PM »
TIME on the China climate commitments.

China Shows It’s Getting Serious About Climate Change
http://time.com/4050702/china-shows-its-getting-serious-about-climate-change/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #237 on: October 17, 2015, 04:33:57 PM »
Too big to measure?

China's Economy May Be Even Bigger Than You Think
Data may not be capturing economy's full size
Quote
I know there's a lot of debate as to whether the numbers are true, whether [last quarter GDP is] really 7 percent, but our numbers indicate that it is at least that," the chairman of the emerging-markets group at Franklin Templeton Investments  said in a recent interview with Bloomberg TV. "We think that a lot of the economy is not really being counted because China is being converted from a manufacturing-oriented economy to a service economy."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-15/china-s-economy-may-be-even-bigger-than-you-think
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #239 on: October 30, 2015, 02:30:10 AM »
To improve its economic future China has now ended its one child policy (now allowing two childern), so for a few decades we can expect its population to accelerate and then to decelerate much more slowly:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/world/asia/china-end-one-child-policy.html?_r=0

« Last Edit: October 31, 2015, 08:50:28 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #240 on: October 30, 2015, 02:46:18 AM »
Can you explain your math a bit here? How do two children per couple add up to an accelerating birth rate?

I think it may prevent the total population numbers from peaking as early as they would have, but that depends what other dynamics and policies come into play.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #241 on: October 30, 2015, 06:34:53 AM »
Canceling China's one child policy is very bad news on the global level. It's not that Chinese population will accelerate, but future world population estimates may now need to be revised to a higher trajectory and the global birth rate will not decline as much as was hoped.

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #242 on: October 30, 2015, 03:42:55 PM »
Can you explain your math a bit here? How do two children per couple add up to an accelerating birth rate?

I think it may prevent the total population numbers from peaking as early as they would have, but that depends what other dynamics and policies come into play.

The two child policy is applied in cities, while in the countryside Chinese generally have more than two children.

Edit: and my reference to accelerating is relative to current population growth rates, and I admit that any such acceleration my be short-lived (but it may come at a particularly bad time between 2035 & 2050)
« Last Edit: October 30, 2015, 04:10:18 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #243 on: October 30, 2015, 08:33:19 PM »
It will be interesting to see whether China follows the green curve or something closer to the red curve:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #244 on: October 31, 2015, 10:17:09 PM »
It will be interesting to see whether China follows the green curve or something closer to the red curve:

I don't really get it. Current demographics of China women are approximately:
20-24: 47 million
25-29: 63 million
30-34: 50 million
35-39: 47 million
There are about 160 million women in China between the ages of 25-40 for whom the policy change might be immediately relevant. Of those about half are in urban areas, where the total fertility rate per woman is around 1 (in rural areas it is roughly 1.5). So theoretically if all these urban women change their behavior to match the rural women, and increase their fertility rate just to 1.5, then 40 million children will be born over the next 15 years by these women, plus some extra more from the younger generation coming soon into childbearing. And yet this graph shows a total of 30 million extra births in the very highest case over 15 years, and less than 10 million extra births over 15 years in the most likely scenario. In addition, it doesn't show any immediate baby boom by those women who always wanted a second child but couldn't. I am surely missing something basic about Chinese demographics or policy, but what?

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #245 on: November 01, 2015, 01:17:44 AM »
oren,

All of the issues that you raise seem to be relevant, and while I do not know the answers to your questions, I throw out that: (a) the policy starts in 2016 not 2015; (b) not all Chinese women of child bearing age are in a situation where they can readily have a child in the time period you are talking about; and (c) it takes some time to become pregnant and to deliver a healthy baby and for the babies to survive to the date you are considering.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #246 on: November 01, 2015, 10:24:15 AM »
I provide the following link & image for the UN's 2015 population projections made before China changed to its new two child policy:

http://esa.un.org/unpd/popdev/Profilesofageing2015/index.html

The mean 2050 World Population total projection creeps closer to 10 billion with each new projection.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #247 on: November 02, 2015, 01:16:29 AM »
Apparently not all Chinese women would rush to have additional children, even if they are permitted to do so:

Quote
When China announced it would relax the policy in 2013, many parents said they did not want a second child due to the high cost of living. A 2014 survey conducted by the Communist Party-controlled People's Daily newspaper found that only half of those permitted to have a second child actually planned another.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/china-scraps-one-child-policy-all-couples-n453566
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #248 on: November 04, 2015, 05:50:52 PM »
Per the linked article, China has been emitting roughly one billion more tons of carbon per year for the past 15 years than it previously reported:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/china-co2-carbon-pollution_563993d8e4b0307f2cab3f04

Extract: "China has emitted roughly a billion more tons of carbon emissions a year over the past 15 years than it previously said, according to a report from The New York Times.
The outlet analyzed energy statistics data from China's statistical agency and found the Asian country has been burning up to 17 percent more coal than the government has disclosed. That figure translates into the entire fossil fuel emissions of Germany over a full year."
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wili

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #249 on: November 06, 2015, 04:14:19 PM »
Thanks for that, ASLR.

Did I not post a warning a while back to be 'very very wary' of China's claims about coal consumption (and just about everything else)?

Here's NYT's coverage of the same: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/world/asia/china-burns-much-more-coal-than-reported-complicating-climate-talks.html?_r=1

China Burns Much More Coal Than Reported, Complicating Climate Talks
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."