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blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #500 on: November 17, 2019, 05:19:46 AM »
Yeah, cool climate surely works in your favour if you have a bunch of bitcoin miner. A lot of warmth is produced in the process.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #501 on: November 20, 2019, 09:24:40 PM »
Cross-posted from the coal forum:

Once China peaks, global coal consumption will peak.  If you were to take all of the countries other than China, global coal capacity has declined.

https://endcoal.org/2019/11/new-report-out-of-step-china-is-driving-the-continued-growth-of-the-global-coal-fleet/

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Report: Out of Step – China Is Driving the Continued Growth of the Global Coal Fleet
Posted November 20, 2019 by Ted Nace

Today, Global Energy Monitor released Out of Step: China is driving the continued growth of the global coal fleet. The report, based on plant-by-plant research by the Global Coal Plant Tracker, finds that from 2018 through June 2019, countries outside of China decreased their total coal power capacity by 8.1 gigawatts (GW), due to steady retirements and an ongoing decline in the commissioning of new coal plants. Over the same period China increased its coal fleet by 42.9 GW, and as a result the global coal fleet overall grew by 34.9 GW.



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China’s proposal to continue growing its coal fleet through 2035 comes as 31 countries have proposed phasing out coal power by 2030. Of the countries that continue to develop coal, China is financing over a quarter (102 GW) of all proposed coal plants outside its borders, including most coal power capacity under development in South Africa, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, among others. Combined with domestic proposals, Chinese financing is behind over half of all global coal power capacity currently under development.

“China’s proposed coal expansion is so far out of alignment with the Paris Agreement that it would put the necessary reductions in coal power out of reach, even if every other country were to completely eliminate its coal fleet,” said Christine Shearer of Global Energy Monitor. “Instead of expanding further, China needs to make significant reductions to its coal fleet over the coming decade.”

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The report concludes: “China’s continued expansion of its coal fleet is not inevitable: the central government could strengthen its existing policies discouraging coal plant building, continue incentivizing low-carbon power over coal, and begin a transition toward clean energy. The path that China’s central government chooses could make or break Paris climate goals.”

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #502 on: November 21, 2019, 02:05:05 PM »
You know, the situation with China is heating up with the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019. A huge trade war, with the situation the economy is already in, could lead to the Greater Recession. This would be enough to lower emissions in the short term, and probably have considerable mid-term consequences.

EDIT: Here is evidence we are already entering the Greater Recession:
http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/relentless-road-to-recession-2/
« Last Edit: November 21, 2019, 08:12:34 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #503 on: November 22, 2019, 08:41:43 AM »
The 2008 Great Recession had quite a big impact on emissions, sadly the drop was recovered pretty rapidly with the recovery. Maybe the recovery wont be so fast this time.

In a meeting that serves as input to the next Chinese 5 year plan, the Chinese Premier emphasized coal (and expanding domestic oil and gas production) and put much less emphasis on renewables. Not good news... They seem to be doubling down on the "clean coal" bullshit that the US industry was pushing for a while - increased efficiency and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #504 on: November 22, 2019, 01:55:31 PM »
Since we have much less "ammunition" to fight a recession this time, and since the fundamentals were not addressed last time and are, if anything, even worse this time, I suspect the recovery will take much longer.
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blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #505 on: November 22, 2019, 04:36:25 PM »
China has still a lot of room to grow its domestic markets. Don't make the mistake thinking the US is a hegemony still. These times are over. I can imagine a scenario where the west is in recession while the Chinese markets are decoupled.
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #506 on: November 23, 2019, 12:17:27 AM »
Good point, especially when their banking system is still mostly state-owned. People have been writing about the collapse of China for the past 15 years at least.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #507 on: November 23, 2019, 12:28:45 AM »
How did they do in the Great Recession? That might give us a clue how they will do in the Greater.
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #508 on: November 23, 2019, 01:18:54 AM »
They did very well in the Great Recession, their monetary expansion helped drag the rest of the world out of recession.

blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #509 on: November 23, 2019, 08:16:23 AM »
For western media, China does badly if they 'only' grow 5% a year. This is, of course, idiotic.
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #510 on: November 24, 2019, 08:44:07 AM »
China's working age population has peaked, so the required rate of growth is less than it was before. The country also needs to rebalance between exports and domestic consumption. So 5% is fine, the Western MSM always want to call the next China crisis it seems.

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #511 on: November 25, 2019, 07:02:28 PM »
Demographics are behind the coming burst of China's economic bubble.  A decade of bad investments (like coal power plants that will run at less than half of capacity before they are retired decades in advance of their useful lives) haven't helped.

https://www.eurasiareview.com/09112019-chinas-descending-rise-oped/

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China is in a sustained economic slowdown. This is causing malignant unease among the political and economic leadership of the communist party in Beijing that governs China. Investing in China will be different, because:

“The country’s first sustained economic slowdown in a generation. China’s economic conditions have steadily worsened since the 2008 financial crisis. The country’s growth rate has fallen by half and is likely to plunge further in the years ahead, as debt, foreign protectionism, resource depletion, and rapid aging take their toll.”

Chinese social structures are under duress over their aging society. Formerly in the 1990s-early 2000s: “China had the greatest demographic dividend in history, with eight working-age adults for every citizen aged 65 or older.”

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Public figures from the Chinese government generally have the economy growing at six percent, but many analysts and economists peg the number(s) at “roughly half the official figure.” China’s GDP has consisted of bad debt that typical financial institutions and western governments will transfer from the state to public sector and ultimately costs passed onto consumers. For China’s wealth to increase when so much domestic wealth is spent on infrastructure projects to increase GDP these official numbers need context.

China has bridges, and cities full of empty office and apartment buildings, unused malls, and idle airports that do not increase economic productivity, and if that isn’t the case then infrastructure increasing economic measurements will decrease. Unproductive growth factors officially known are: “20 percent of homes are vacant, and ‘excess capacity’ in major industries tops 30 percent.” According to official Chinese estimates the government misallocated $6 trillion on “ineffective investment between 2009-14.” Debt now exceeds 300 percent of GDP.

What’s discovered is the amount of China’s GDP growth “has resulted from government’s pumping capital into the economy.” Private investments have trouble overtaking government stimulus spending, and Foreign Affairs ascertains “China’s economy may not be growing at all.”

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/China-s-housing-glut-casts-pall-over-the-economy

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China's housing glut casts pall over the economy
A building binge leaves cities with 65 million empty apartments

KENJI KAWASE, Nikkei Asian Review chief business news correspondent
February 13, 2019

TOKYO/HONG KONG -- For many single men in China, buying an apartment is a prerequisite for marriage. Yan Zhong, a 34-year-old resident of the northern city of Jinan, has hopes to do both. But lately, he has started to have second thoughts -- at least about buying the apartment.

"I'm considering holding back on my house purchasing plans for a while," he said.

Yan still intends to marry someday, but he is growing concerned about China's housing market. Even in a so-called second-tier city like Jinan, a 100-sq.-meter apartment would cost him about 2 million yuan ($297,000). Yan, who makes roughly 6,000 yuan a month working for a local environmental nonprofit organization, is only able to afford half of that, despite years of saving and generous support from his parents.

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Many analysts now expect China's home sales to contract this year. Perhaps more worrisome, though, is the growing number of Chinese property companies that appear to be struggling under the weight of heavy debt burdens. Moody's Investors Service has assigned junk status to 51 of the 61 Chinese property companies it assesses.

"We do see some challenges ahead" for the property sector, Kaven Tsang, senior credit officer at Moody's in Hong Kong, told the Nikkei Asian Review. While foreseeing overall selling prices to be "relatively stable," he predicts nationwide contract-based sales in 2019 to fall by 5% compared to levels last year.

The slowing real estate sector is a potential problem for China's policymakers. For years, real estate has played a pivotal role in creating jobs, boosting investment and generating cash for local governments. Roughly 25% of China's gross domestic product has been created from property-related industries, according to CLSA. And housing is a crucial means of asset formation in China, where ordinary citizens face restrictions to overseas investment and have few domestic options besides local stock markets, which lost 25% of their value last year.

The property slump has also triggered several episodes of social unrest, which Beijing seeks to avoid at all costs. In October, Shanghai homebuyers came out in droves to protest a developer's decision to cut prices in an apartment complex. The angry residents screamed slogans denouncing the developer and carried placards saying: "Give us our hard-earned blood-and-sweat money back!"

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According to his estimates, about 80% of Chinese people's wealth is in the form of real estate, totaling over $65 trillion in value -- almost twice the size of all G-7 economies combined. A significant slowdown could, therefore, have a substantial impact on citizens' financial health.

To him, Chinese people have "played around with leverage, debts, and finance, and eventually created a mirage in a desert that will soon entirely collapse."

In December, Xiang challenged the government's official economic growth estimate of 6.6%, saying it was actually just 1.67% -- or possibly even negative -- in 2018. He then went on to warn of a potential crash in the property market.

"This collapse will be a perfect Minsky moment," he added, using the term for a sudden collapse in asset prices after a long period of growth, named for American economist Hyman Minsky.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #512 on: November 25, 2019, 07:22:40 PM »
So maybe China will not pull the world out of the Greater Recession?
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #513 on: November 26, 2019, 07:08:58 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/be1250c6-0c4d-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67

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   The general momentum on climate and environment issues has been declining [in China],” says Li Shuo, senior global policy adviser at Greenpeace. Climate change has become a lower priority for Beijing. “There is less space for the green agenda,” he says.

China’s investment in renewable energy fell 39 per cent in the first half of this year, compared with the same period in 2018, according to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Beijing yanked subsidies for solar panel projects in the middle of last year, and is shrinking those for wind, causing an abrupt shift.

“This is probably a low point,” says Li Junfeng, a senior renewable energy
policymaker and head of the National Centre for Climate Change Strategy Research, part of the government planning ministry. “The new policy is not in place yet, and the old policy [of subsidies] has been stopped.”

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The highest political priority in China is trying to stabilise the economy,” says Kevin Tu, an energy economist who previously led the China desk at the IEA. “Anything else, including environmental protection, especially climate change, will have to make some room for these political priorities.

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At the same time, coal appears to be again in the ascendant with Li Keqiang, China’s premier, last month identifying it as a priority area. China remains the world’s biggest producer. Many see this as part of a growing focus on energy security in Beijing, a result of Chinese leaders being spooked by deteriorating relations with the west. “Energy security anxiety is a blessing for the coal [sector] in China,” says Mr Tu.

https://www.ft.com/content/be1250c6-0c4d-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #514 on: November 26, 2019, 09:11:16 PM »
The linked report on the global decline in coal use has some very interesting information on China.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-coal-power-set-for-record-fall-in-2019

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Global electricity production from coal is on track to fall by around 3% in 2019, the largest drop on record.

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Over the preceding two years 2017-2018, reductions in coal generation in the US and EU have been offset by increases elsewhere, particularly in China.

This year, however, the fall in developed economies is accelerating, while coal generation in India and China is slowing sharply, precipitating a global reduction.

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In China, electricity demand growth has slowed to 3% this year, down from 6.7% over the past two years. Non-fossil energy sources have met almost all this demand growth.

The country’s demand for coal-fired power depends on the interplay between clean electricity growth and rising demand. The gap between the two, if any, is filled with coal.

This means that when electricity demand is growing strongly, coal dependence comes to the fore. With these conditions, 2017-2018 saw coal-fired power generation grow at an average of 6.6% year on year.

However, 2019 has so far seen strong nuclear, wind and hydro power generation and relatively weak overall electricity demand growth, with coal use in electricity flatlining.

At the same time, Chinese power firms have been continuing to add new coal-fired power plants to the grid at a rate of one large plant every two weeks. This has driven coal-fired power plant utilisation rates – the share of hours in the year when they are running – back down to record lows of 48.6%. This is the fourth year in a row that the Chinese national average has been below 50% – and also below the global average, which stands at 54%.

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However, 2019 has also seen the first contracts for wind and solar plants that will generate power at the same price as coal power plants, putting China on a path to renewable energy “grid parity” as those projects come online in 2020.

gerontocrat

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #515 on: November 26, 2019, 09:50:15 PM »
China...
As coal fades, does Solar+Wind rise to take over, or does Natural Gas? (as in the USA)

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-stockpiles-natural-gas-on-painful-memory-of-shortage

OK, a 2018 Report, but data from the 13th 5 year plan.

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President Xi Jinping aims to reduce air pollution in major cities by switching from coal to natural gas for power plants and other facilities. China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach 360 billion cu. meters in 2020 compared with 230 billion cu. meters last year (2017).

We will see...
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ps: Ken, how do you rate the chances of reducing CO2 emissions in 2030 by 55% (7.5% p.a.) for +1.5 celsius, 25% for +2 celsius ?
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Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #516 on: November 26, 2019, 10:33:12 PM »

ps: Ken, how do you rate the chances of reducing CO2 emissions in 2030 by 55% (7.5% p.a.) for +1.5 celsius, 25% for +2 celsius ?

With solar and wind now cheaper than fossil fuels in about three quarters of the world (already cheaper in the developed countries and now at grid parity in China), pretty good.

Given that we're already seeing drops in global coal consumption (down 3% in 2019) and softening of demand for oil and a huge glut in natural gas, the major wildcard is how quickly battery electric vehicles take over the transportation market.  The forecast year for cost parity between BEVs and ICEs is now 2022.  So we should see peak oil demand within the decade.

I doubt we'll see a new coal power plant built after 2025 or a new natural gas power plant after 2035.  Sales of new ICE vehicles will probably be banned in most countries in the 2030s.

I suspect that we wont hit the 7.5% annual decreases needed for the 1.5 degree C target until the 2030s, but we should be able to hit the 2.0 target for emissions reductions in the 2020s and exceed them in the 2030s and 2040s.  With global temperatures increasing at around 0.18 degrees per decade and the five-year average increase around 0.9 C, we'd hit 1.5 degrees in the 2050s. So we'll end up somewhere by 1.5C and 2.0C temperature increase before looking at options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

When people think of CDR, they usually think of artificial leaves or other large machines to suck CO2 from the air and pipe it underground (or deep under the sea).  However, there are much better options that can be used to increase global carbon sinks from better agricultural practices, which are increasingly being used.  Look up regenerative agriculture, biochar, sustainable grazing, renewable natural gas, or reductions in methane from rice farming. 

And there are possibilities in kelp farming, with the kelp reducing acidity in the oceans and then being fed to ruminants to reduce their methane emissions.

In the past decade, a lot of progress has been made in all of these areas.  Keep that in mind when you read a gloom and doom report.  We must continue to press our leaders for more rapid changes to reduce greenhouse gases and improve carbon sinks, and we shouldn't give up hope that it can be done.


blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #517 on: November 27, 2019, 04:51:22 PM »
Ken, this is me 30 years ago:

"Renewables will get cheaper and cheaper. The lifetime of a power plant is 40 years. So it can't take any longer for the energy transition. It's a no brainer. Any time now."

Me 20 years ago:

"Wow, if you extrapolate the numbers we are there soon. Amazing!"

Me 10 years ago:

"Holy shit, renewables are almost as cheap as coal. No one can afford to build a coal plant these days."


Me today:

Reads that new coal power plants are still in the planning.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #518 on: November 27, 2019, 07:51:31 PM »
Ken, this is me 30 years ago:

"Renewables will get cheaper and cheaper. The lifetime of a power plant is 40 years. So it can't take any longer for the energy transition. It's a no brainer. Any time now."

Me 20 years ago:

"Wow, if you extrapolate the numbers we are there soon. Amazing!"

Me 10 years ago:

"Holy shit, renewables are almost as cheap as coal. No one can afford to build a coal plant these days."


Me today:

Reads that new coal power plants are still in the planning.

Yes, and peak coal is now on the horizon.  Of those plants in planning, most (if any) won't be built.

As I posted upthread, global coal use is down 3% this year.  While some of that may be weather related (more rain for hydroplants or milder weather cutting energy demand), much of it is due to the fact that outside of China, more coal power plants have been retired than built this year.  And that trend is only going to continue.

https://energypost.eu/peak-coal-on-the-horizon-a-country-by-country-review/

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Peak coal on the horizon: a country-by-country review
September 2, 2019 by Christine Shearer

Though the global coal fleet still increased by 17GW in the first half of 2019, net of retirements, the pipeline is definitely shrinking. Two thirds of proposed projects never even get started. Notably, in China existing coal plants have been running, on average, only 50% of the time since 2015, evidence of a large excess of capacity. But is it enough? The IPCC’s pathway to 1.5C requires unabated coal power generation to fall by 55-70% by 2030 and be effectively phased out by 2050. That’s why all eyes are on the 15 countries – headed by China (49%), the US (13%) and India (11%) – responsible for 91% of the global coal fleet, generating 2,027GW worldwide, to turn that shrinking pipeline into shrinking capacity. Christine Shearer of Global Energy Monitor dives deep into the latest global stats.

Around the world, 12.7 gigawatts (GW) of new coal capacity has been proposed so far in 2019 – less than 3GW above the amount that has retired (10GW). These trends mean the global coal fleet will soon decline, because only a third of proposed capacity has actually been developed since 2010.

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In 2019 to date, about 12.7GW of coal power capacity has been newly proposed across eight countries and 12GW of new construction has started across five countries. These developments are concentrated in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Bangladesh. China also resumed construction on nearly 9GW of capacity that had been postponed under central government restrictions.

Conversely, 132GW of planned new capacity was cancelled in 2019, mainly from lack of activity. The largest numbers of cancellations were in China, India, Myanmar and Turkey.

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The implementation rate figure in the table above varies widely, from 0% in Egypt – which has yet to implement any of its projects – to 71% in South Korea. The global average is 35%, meaning just 1GW of new coal has been built or began construction since 2010 for each 3GW of proposed capacity.

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India has undergone a large downscaling in its future coal plans, in favour of lower-cost renewables. Turkey has 34GW of coal in the pipeline, but has commissioned only 12% of its proposed capacity since 2010 – a rate that would lead to only 4GW of the 34GW being completed. In reality, the figure may ultimately be even lower than this.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have all reduced their proposed coal capacity, with no new large proposals since 2015. Meanwhile Japan and Korea are also facing public pressure to cut their international financial support for coal, which would leave only China as a significant source of global coal funding – given over 100 financial institutions are restricting coal financing.

Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Pakistan have all scaled back plans for coal in their future national energy plans, with many of them experiencing significant coal-related financial problems.

It's possible that 2018 was the year that coal consumption peaked.

blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #519 on: November 27, 2019, 08:11:04 PM »
It's possible that 2018 was the year that coal consumption peaked.

It's also entirely possible it's 10 or even 20 years out.
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #520 on: November 27, 2019, 08:28:33 PM »
Ken, this is me 30 years ago:

"Renewables will get cheaper and cheaper. The lifetime of a power plant is 40 years. So it can't take any longer for the energy transition. It's a no brainer. Any time now."

Me 20 years ago:

"Wow, if you extrapolate the numbers we are there soon. Amazing!"

Me 10 years ago:

"Holy shit, renewables are almost as cheap as coal. No one can afford to build a coal plant these days."


Me today:

Reads that new coal power plants are still in the planning.

With all that what you thought 30 and 20 years ago you certainly meant more or less us Europeans and north Americans but certainly not China, china was not on the radar 30 years ago. Also for most of us not 20 years ago and perhaps a larger part of the population became aware of their industrial rise 1about 8-12 years ago, depending.

What I'm trying to say is that you were not that far off with your assumptions but now compare apple with pears in the way that of course there are cultural, structural as well as regional differences and one cannot name a general rule for the entire earth.

Even though China makes a huge effort since longer to get pollution and other environmental effects under control, they had such an extraordinary growth rate over about two decades that they could only avoid the worst and see to set the course somehow.

Perhaps i have to add that I've been living in China for 12 years and have some kind of insight how things developed over the last 20 years and before that from hearsay.

There could more be added here but that would veer OT and get TLTR, just wanted to point out that we should not measure our previous expectations with regions that emerged after we made our mind up.


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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #521 on: November 29, 2019, 08:24:09 PM »
....So we'll end up somewhere by 1.5C and 2.0C temperature increase before looking at options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

When people think of CDR, they usually think of artificial leaves or other large machines to suck CO2 from the air and pipe it underground (or deep under the sea).  However, there are much better options that can be used to increase global carbon sinks from better agricultural practices, which are increasingly being used.  Look up regenerative agriculture, biochar, sustainable grazing, renewable natural gas, or reductions in methane from rice farming. 

My favorite solution for carbon capture is the one Mother Nature has used, and can be adapted for the climate emergency:  weathering of olivine rock.

Olivine against climate change and ocean acidification

http://www.innovationconcepts.eu/res/literatuurSchuiling/olivineagainstclimatechange23.pdf

" It is expected that the cost of olivine will drop below 15 € / ton for large
mines in low-wage countries and limited transport distances. The cost per ton of CO2 will
then be around 10 €/ton, as one metric ton of olivine captures 1.25 tons of CO2. This
compares very favorably with the cost of CO2 capture by CCS, which is 60 to 90 € / ton
according to a recent report by McKinsey & Company (2008). "

Crush it, spread it, and it will turn CO2 into carbonates. 

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #522 on: November 30, 2019, 03:33:37 AM »
Re: Olivine, "Crush it, spread it"

There was a study pointing to significant soil impact, but i dont have the reference handy at the moment. In any event, the effort will exceed the effort of mining all the coal and then some. Any substantial drawdown effort will be in that category.

sidd

oren

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #523 on: November 30, 2019, 11:35:03 AM »
Indeed, sidd.
I also wonder how much land area is needed to spread all those crushed rocks on, where such land is to be found, and what other uses can still go on for such land after said spreading.

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #524 on: November 30, 2019, 01:22:43 PM »
Indeed, sidd.
I also wonder how much land area is needed to spread all those crushed rocks on, where such land is to be found, and what other uses can still go on for such land after said spreading.

Magnesium and silicates are non-toxic (don't inhale fine silicate dust, though).  In fact, magnesium is a nutrient that many are deficient in.  Silicic acid is a limiting nutrient for ocean diatoms.

Thousands of recreational beaches are paying to obtain sand.  If people could get used to greenish-tinged sand, there's some gigatons right there.  Just subsidize this use via a carbon tax.  Pay recreational beaches to use it. Create a ton of CO2 and pay the cost of crushing a ton of olivine to re-absorb it.  At 10 euros per ton of crushed olivine, that's not a deal-breaker for the economy.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #525 on: November 30, 2019, 04:43:37 PM »
An Autonomous Solar Powered Boring Machine that can identify olivine could extract (and pulverise) a tunnel through a vein of olivine then exit at the far end. This pulverised dunnage can be used as paving material, compressed into bricks, or otherwise profitably deployed at either of the adits.


A large solar/battery fan is installed at the least accessible adit & the ASPBM is reprogrammed to widen, and/or deepen, the original tunnel until the entire vein has been tunnelled, pulverised and exposed to the CO2 laden air that the solar/battery powered fan draws through the now air permeable dunnage left behind the ASPBM.


If the olivine swells and blocks the passage of air as it absorbs CO2, additional tunnels may need to be drilled through the rubble, and enough olivine dunnage extracted to restore airflow. This would be used to expand parking, maintain access roads or compressed into bricks to facilitate additional housing, recreation facilities, or office complexes.


By using the about to be available million cycle batteries, a very long lasting EV style motor for the fan, and a second ASPBM for those periods when its mate is in need of digger/pulverizer head resharpening or renewal. The site will require minimal human intervention. Possibly a site manager, his secretary, a janitor/chauffeur/mechanic and a maid/cook.


Once in operation the site could run continuously until such time as all of the available ovaline had been processed. When this occurs the buildings and parking gravel can be packed back into the holes, both ends sealed and the site restored to its original pristine state.


The fan, solar panels and ASPBMs can then be transported to the nearest promising ovaline vein and the process repeated.


Many of these can be used concurrently, with startup costs coming from fines levied against major emitting businesses. The costs of operations should be minimal but for management costs, and additional fines will relieve every country from fiscal responsibility.


My firm will oversee every aspect of the operation from locating the olivine deposits, certifying the results and inspecting the final cleanup/restoration of the sites. When it comes to CO2 remediation We Really Suck.


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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #526 on: December 01, 2019, 11:15:50 PM »
Upgrading of Chinese coal fired electricity plants

35% of Chinese coal plants are the less efficient sub-critical plants that do not meet the efficiency levels required by Chinese regulations by 2020. They can either be closed or upgraded to get about 43% efficiency - that means at least 10% less coal usage and CO2 emissions form these plants.

So thats 10% times .35 = 3.5% saving from the overall coal fleet (it will be more as some of the old plants will be closed and replaced with much higher efficiency ones). All new coal plants have to be of the ultra-critical type at least, ultra super critical ones are reaching efficiency levels of 50%.

So, it may be possible for China to increase electricity production from coal plants to support growth while not increasing emissions for the next few years, before they utilize all the benefits of upgrading the coal plant fleet.

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The introduction of higher steam temperatures and pressures led first to operation at supercritical and then subsequently with ultrasupercritical conditions. To put this in context, the supercritical units could boost efficiencies from 39% to about 42% while ultrasupercritical units have achieved efficiencies that have steadily increased from just above 42% to about 49% (net, LHV basis), with developments and demonstrations underway to push these past the 50% mark

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A 300 MWe subcritical unit can at very best achieve 39% efficiency while a state of the art 1000 MWe USC unit can have an efficiency close to 49% (net, LHV basis) ... the Chinese Government requires that by 2020 all the coal-fired power units should achieve an annual average UNE greater than 39.6% (LHV)

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Such subcritical units represent a significant part of the overall coal power fleet since their operational capacity is about 350 GWe, accounting for close to 35% of the total installed coal-fired power capacity

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Professor Feng has now turned his attention to providing the cost-effective high temperature retrofit for those existing 300/600MWe subcritical coal power units, which will result in a significant efficiency improvement that can be achieved at an acceptable investment level. His intention is to increase maximum temperature of the main and hot reheat steam from 538/538°C to 600/600°C, while keeping the steam pressure unchanged. It is estimated that the upgrade will enhance the unit’s power output efficiency to 42.9% for the 300 MWe units, and even higher for the 600 MWe ones, reduce its emissions by more than 10% and extend its overhaul interval from six to 12 years.

https://www.iea-coal.org/another-innovative-idea-from-the-waigaoqiao-no-3-coal-power-plant-engineers/