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Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #550 on: January 14, 2020, 10:34:47 PM »
The thought had occurred to me gerontocrat...  8)

Ken, it comes down to deliverable megatonnage.  Even France, at #4 doesn't make the MAD club.

The rest are just playing games.

Better to use it for power generation but once the genie is out of the bottle, you can't put it back.

According to this source, the US, UK, France and China have more weapons that the UK.  And with an estimate of 90, this seems to undercount Isreal, which supposedly has between 200 and 400 weapons.

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat



And with 160 and 140 weapons respectively, I'm pretty sure Pakistan and India could wipe each other out and trigger a nuclear winter for the rest of us.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #551 on: January 15, 2020, 07:20:04 AM »
Scientists did the calculations - India and Pakistan could easily trigger a nuclear winter.

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

Quote
Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #552 on: January 15, 2020, 10:38:36 AM »
rboyd:
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

NeilT

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #553 on: January 15, 2020, 01:13:06 PM »

And with 160 and 140 weapons respectively, I'm pretty sure Pakistan and India could wipe each other out and trigger a nuclear winter for the rest of us.

Yep, I fell into that trap and I have been trained so have no excuse.

The US, UK and Russia have 3 stage weapons. Our tridents can carry up to 8 455kt re-entry vehicles and each sub carries up to 16 missiles.   We have 4 subs.

France only has 2 stage weapons and their deliverable megatonnage is correspondingly smaller per weapon.

One sub is overkill as each missile can kill 8 cities.

It is why I get a bit irked when the UK is talked about as a "small" country.  It is a massive economy, a massive mitter of CO2 and a country you do not want to force into a corner militarily.

Sorry for going off topic but it is something that tends to underestimate the work the UK has to do to in order to reduce world emissions.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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kassy

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #554 on: January 15, 2020, 03:44:42 PM »
The UK has to do what the UK has to do just like all other nations.
There is a widget on the ASIB showing 2,8 billion hiroshima atomic bombs of warming since 1998.


Quote
The wildlife in the exclusion zone around Chernobyl is doing very well.

In the year after the tsunami i visited Lanka and i ended up at the Elephant Orphanage. They had an elephant with a prosthetic limb because it stepped on a land mine. So i talked to one of the people working there. Isn´t it sad that we put down land mines that hurt these elephants?

The answer was: It is only because of the fighting in that area that the actual habitat still exists.
You trade a limb for the herd...
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

NeilT

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #555 on: January 16, 2020, 11:35:33 AM »
There is a widget on the ASIB showing 2,8 billion hiroshima atomic bombs of warming since 1998.

I know, I remember Neven adding it.  I remember Neven starting the site.  For a long time before that, it had been quite difficult keeping track of all the information.

I started the off topic because so many in the UK think the UK is a small country.  In terms of economy, power and influence in the word, it is not. Also, in terms of CO2 emissions, the UK is not small.

These people are voters and they vote for action based on their perceptions.

If they don't perceive that the UK is a big part of the problem, they will not vote for action.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

gerontocrat

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #556 on: January 18, 2020, 02:12:29 PM »
Meanwhile, soon China will have fewer people to nuke.

Note the response of the authorities to the low birthate is to encourage fecundity.
I thought AI and robots wold mean less labour required -seems not.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/17/chinas-birthrate-falls-to-lowest-level-despite-push-for-more-babies
China's birthrate falls to lowest level despite push for more babies
Efforts by policymakers to bolster the population after decades of strict family planning seem to be failing

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China’s birthrate has fallen to the lowest level since the Communist country was founded in 1949, in a sign that efforts to head off a demographic crisis have so far failed.

There were 14.6 million births in China in 2019, a drop of about 500,000 from the year before and the third year in a row that the number of births fallen, according to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics published on Friday. It was the lowest number in seven decades, with the exception of 1961, the last year of a famine that left tens of millions dead.

The birthrate for last year, at 10.48 live births per 1,000 people, was the lowest since 1949. By comparison, the rate in England and Wales was 11.1 last year, the lowest since records started in 1938. Singapore’s birthrate, one of the lowest in the world, is 8.9 per 1,000 people. Niger, with one of the highest birthrates in the world, saw 46.5 births per 1,000 people in 2017, according to the World Bank.

....many families have still chosen not to have more children, citing the high costs of school, housing and medical care. Others said the energy required to ensure their children can compete in modern Chinese society was too exhausting. Divorce rates have increased and more women were marrying later or not at all.

....fertility rates dropped from 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to about 1.6 in the late 1990s. The replacement level for a population is 2.1.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #557 on: January 18, 2020, 03:25:49 PM »
Finally some good news, and of course TPTB find it problematic. God forbid that there will ever be even a slight drop in population.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #558 on: January 25, 2020, 10:02:30 AM »

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #559 on: January 26, 2020, 12:04:19 AM »
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is basically a planned small-scale nuclear winter, just without the bombs and nuclear fallout - just the sun blocking particles in the stratosphere. The research backgrounds of nuclear winter and climate change are very much intertwined.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #560 on: January 26, 2020, 02:23:34 AM »
^^
Is anyone talking about what effect SRM will have on solar installations?
Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #561 on: January 26, 2020, 02:26:35 AM »
The reduction in the solar radiation tat gets through to the Earth's surface will be in the 1-4% range, at the most so not a big impact on solar installations.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #562 on: January 26, 2020, 02:35:24 AM »
Thanks!
I'd feared it was much more.


Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #563 on: January 26, 2020, 02:36:18 AM »
China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive

Looks like China will install about 25GW of solar this year, which is a very large reduction from the previous years 40+, even bigger on a cumulative installed growth level (could be as low as a 14% growth rate). If that stays the same, as proposed in the article, then installed capacity will only double in 5 years - not enough to stop increases in Chinese fossil fuel use.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solar/china-solar-installations-to-slow-as-subsidy-cuts-bite-executive-idUSKCN1VR08R

Backed up by this report:

China’s market in transition

Coal prices could fall, reducing the solar prices required to meet grid parity pricing.

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At the same time, the majority of provincial, city or industrial-zone support policies will terminate either in 2019 or by 2020 at the latest. Equally impactful will be the introduction of a base price + floating mechanism for the coal benchmark price, from Jan. 1, 2020. Accordingly, the coal benchmark can fluctuate by -15% and +10% annually. A decline of the local coal benchmark price by 15% could consequently challenge the competitiveness of grid-parity projects, and eventually may lead to delays or even the cancellation of such projects planned for next year

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In short, it has been a rather eventful year to date as far as the changes in China’s solar PV policy landscape are concerned. AECEA’s full-year demand assessment for 2019 is 20-24 GW, with a 2020 demand forecast of about 23-31 GW

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/30/chinas-market-in-transition/

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #564 on: January 26, 2020, 02:40:06 AM »
Without the energy from the Sun the Earth's average temperature would be below 0 F, instead of plus 57 F right now, so we don't have to block that much of the Sun's energy to knock temperatures down by a degree or so.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/what-if-the-sun-disappeared-earth-video_n_2999693?ri18n=true

blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #565 on: January 27, 2020, 10:14:12 AM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #566 on: January 27, 2020, 04:25:07 PM »
China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive

Looks like China will install about 25GW of solar this year, which is a very large reduction from the previous years 40+, even bigger on a cumulative installed growth level (could be as low as a 14% growth rate). If that stays the same, as proposed in the article, then installed capacity will only double in 5 years - not enough to stop increases in Chinese fossil fuel use.


Definitely not good news but when you compare this to the total U.S. installed capacity of 71.3GW, it still is a hefty number.

The U.S. installed 2.6GW in 2019.

https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #567 on: January 27, 2020, 08:53:47 PM »
Shared Humanity, talk about setting the bar low!

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #568 on: January 27, 2020, 11:19:28 PM »
China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive

Looks like China will install about 25GW of solar this year, which is a very large reduction from the previous years 40+, even bigger on a cumulative installed growth level (could be as low as a 14% growth rate). If that stays the same, as proposed in the article, then installed capacity will only double in 5 years - not enough to stop increases in Chinese fossil fuel use.


Definitely not good news but when you compare this to the total U.S. installed capacity of 71.3GW, it still is a hefty number.

The U.S. installed 2.6GW in 2019.

https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight

That was in the third Quarter only.  From your linked article.

Quote
The U.S. installed 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV capacity in Q3 2019 to reach 71.3 GW of total installed capacity, enough to power 13.5 million American homes. Residential solar saw its best quarter in history in Q3, and the utility-scale solar pipeline now stands at a record 45.5 GW in Q2. Total installed U.S. PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years.


Shared Humanity

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #569 on: January 28, 2020, 04:36:58 PM »
Thank you for the correction. Should have read the article more carefully. Still a pathetic number for the richest country in the world.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #570 on: January 31, 2020, 05:45:36 AM »
Quote
Total installed U.S. PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years.

That's a compound growth rate of just over 15% per annum (a significant deceleration from the 24% in 2018), doubling solar pv's share of US energy consumption to 2%. As the installed base gets bigger it gets harder and harder to keep the % growth rate up. Wind in the US is averaging a sub-10% growth rate for the past three years (2017-2019) and forecast to do the same for the next 5 years.

If US energy consumption remains stable (as it mostly has for the past decade), then the result will be a very slow reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with some added benefit from coal to gas switching. The EIA thinks that NG demand for electricity production will start falling in 2021 due to renewables competitiveness, after growing in 2019 and 2020.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #571 on: January 31, 2020, 10:43:58 PM »
Global solar installations are projected to be 140GW in 2020, even with slower growth in China.  (The article implies China will maintain its lead since it already has more installed solar power than other nations).

https://www.rechargenews.com/solar/exponential-global-solar-growth-to-continue-with-142gw-added-in-2020/2-1-733672

Quote
'Exponential' global solar growth to continue with 142GW added in 2020

Latest figures from IHS Markit show China maintaining market leadership but greater number of emerging plays worldwide
7 January 2020
By Darius Snieckus

More than 140GW of new PV plant is expected to be added to grids around the world this year, an almost 15% rise on 2019, as the global solar build-out continues its sprawling expansion, according to latest figures IHS Markit.

Quote
Market-leader China will continue to account for an outsized share of new installations into the foreseeable future, according to IHS calculations, but the “over-reliance on China for global solar installation growth will continue to decrease in coming years as more capacity is added elsewhere”.

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In the US, the world’s second largest solar market, IHS Markit expects i nstallations to grow 20% in 2020, with California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and New York “key drivers” of rising demand over the next five years.

Quote
In India – where policy uncertainties and the impact of import duties on PV modules combine to slow build-out in 2019 – installations are expected to grow again and surpass 14GW in 2020, spurred by lower module prices and a large, waiting pipeline of projects.

SolarPower Europe’s Global Market Outlook 2019-2023 forecasts the world adding nearly 800GW of capacity by 2023 in a “medium scenario”, bringing cumulated solar capacity to 1.3TW, as solar power has become the lowest-cost power generation source in an increasing number of countries.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #572 on: February 03, 2020, 09:45:43 PM »
The 142GW in 2020 is an almost 15% rise on the amount of incremental new PV installations vs. 2019, so 2019 was (142/115)*100 = 123GW.

For 2019 that represents a 25% growth in the installed base, and for 2020 a 23% increase in the installed base. Quite impressive if that can be kept up, as that level of growth leads to a doubling about every three years. That would require the growth in incremental new PV installations to grow at about 25% a year, which could possibly happen given that there are no more subsidies to cut in China and a Bernie presidency would be a lot more climate policy friendly.

Solar is about 1% of the total global energy supply, so a doubling every three years would deliver 2% in 2023, 4% in 2026 and 8% in 2029. There is some growth in global energy consumption of about 2% a year, so together with the much slower growth in wind energy and even slower growth in hydro, this would deliver a small yearly fall in fossil fuel usage toward the end the 2020s.

As long as GDP keeps growing its really hard to cut fossil fuel usage. Sales of EVs may help increase the fall in FF usage, but still nowhere near the 7-10% reductions required from today,
« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 10:04:19 PM by rboyd »

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #573 on: March 05, 2020, 01:29:46 AM »
The Chinese economy may be heading toward a recession.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/economy/china-services-employment-coronavirus/index.html

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China's economy could shrink for the first time in decades because of the coronavirus
Anchor Muted Background

By Laura He, CNN Business

March 4, 2020

Hong Kong (CNN Business)The novel coronavirus outbreak has been brutal for China and could plunge the country's economy into its first contraction since the 1970s.

Economic activity sharply declined across the board in February as companies struggled to reopen for business or hire workers during a government-mandated shutdown, according to official and private surveys released in recent days.

Wednesday revealed shockingly bad news for services in the world's second biggest economy. Chinese media group Caixin said its purchasing managers index for the sector plummeted to 26.5 last month from a reading of 51.8 the month before — the lowest figure recorded by the survey since it began in 2005. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, rather than growth.

"China's economy is in a very bad way indeed," said Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale.

Quote
The fallout could be crippling for China's economic growth this quarter. Macquarie Group chief China economist Larry Hu suggested that the country could be in for a historic economic decline.

The data "suggest that things are really bad and the government is willing to report that," Hu wrote in a note after the official data was released at the weekend, adding that growth for the first quarter could come in well below estimates currently running at around 4% (down from 6% in the fourth quarter of 2019).

"It's even possible that the government will report negative growth for [the first quarter], the first time since the end of Culture Revolution," he added.

Quote
He also said stabilizing employment is the government's primary task, and placed special emphasis on new graduates and migrant workers. China's 290 million migrant workers are among those most exposed to a slump, since they often travel from rural areas to the cities to take on construction, manufacturing, or service jobs that would have been tough to find during last month's widespread shutdowns.

Only 80 million migrant workers had returned to work by mid-February, according to the government.

NeilT

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #574 on: March 05, 2020, 04:54:50 PM »
So may the EU.  Which will impact China. Also South Korea, with 6,000 cases and ever increasing shutdowns is not going to help China, now under 200 new cases per day, with bringing its industry back up to speed.

With Italy at 3,000 cases and a growth rate at around 500 per day, Germany close to 450 with a growth rate close to 200 per day and France at close to 400 with a growth rate close to 100 per day; it is more likely than not that significant shutdowns are in the near future for the EU.

All of this will impact the Chinese economy.
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #575 on: March 05, 2020, 05:37:40 PM »
And a week or two after China restarted its industry will the cases/day climb right back up?
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Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #576 on: March 05, 2020, 06:46:19 PM »
The slow economy in China has lead them to cut back on natural gas imports.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/PetroChina-Declares-Force-Majeure-On-Gas-Imports.html

Quote
PetroChina Declares Force Majeure On Gas Imports
By Irina Slav - Mar 05, 2020

PetroChina, the largest importer of natural gas, has declared a force majeure on all imports, including of liquefied natural gas, unnamed sources told Reuters, without providing any details except that the move was prompted by the coronavirus outbreak.

Quote
China imports 40 percent of the natural gas it consumes, with 70 percent coming via pipelines from Russia, Kazakhstan, other Central Asian states, and Myanmar. The rest comes in the form of LNG from other parts of the world.

As forb pipeline gas, one of the Reuters sources said that PetroChina has asked for cuts in daily volumes. As for LNG, according to one source, the state company had asked for a deferral of several cargoes to the third quarter.

The move comes after another state energy company, CNOOC, suspended its contracts with at least three LNG suppliers, Reuters recalls. CNOOC is China’s largest importer of liquefied gas.

The news suggests that natural gas storage space in China is full while demand remains subdued and likely to stay that way for an as of yet undetermined period of time. Reports about the economic activity in the world’s largest manufacturing and exporting nation have been bleak, with expectations now about not just a slowdown in growth but an actual GDP contraction for the first quarter.

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #577 on: March 09, 2020, 11:49:58 PM »
While China may be slowly recovering from Covid-19 outbreaks, they're just taking off in the US and Europe.  That's bad news for the Chinese economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/investors-may-be-overlooking-a-second-blow-to-china-s-economy

Quote
Investors May Be Overlooking a Second Blow to China’s Economy
By Annie Massa
March 6, 2020, 1:58 PM PST

    U.S., Europe slowdown would bring more pain, Vanguard says
    Firm’s chief economist says hit could be half percentage point

A second hit could be coming for China’s economy after its initial shock from the coronavirus, said Joe Davis, chief economist at fund giant Vanguard Group.

While China has seen new cases of the virus slow, its spread is intensifying in the U.S. and Europe. Should that trend keep hammering the economies of both regions, it could knock a half percentage point off of China’s gross domestic product for the year as demand for Chinese goods slows, he estimated.

“One risk that’s not priced in is that, should we see cases expand, there will be a second demand shock in China,” Davis said in a phone interview Friday.


blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #578 on: March 10, 2020, 10:26:41 AM »
The New York Times:

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Breaking News: Italy is locking down Milan, Venice and much of its north, risking its economy in an effort to contain Europe's worst coronavirus outbreak.

Link >> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-quarantine.html

Also the New York Times:

Quote
To fight the coronavirus, China placed nearly 60 million people under lockdown and instituted strict quarantine and travel restrictions for hundreds of millions of others. Its campaign has come at great cost to people's livelihoods and personal liberties.

Link >> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-cost.html

Dat framing... Dat bias...

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #579 on: March 10, 2020, 11:10:40 AM »
And a week or two after China restarted its industry will the cases/day climb right back up?

Cases are pretty likely to go back up in China in future due to the nature of the virus. There will come a point when it becomes so endemic in other countries that there will be transmission back into population centres within China. I expect a double peak.
Im working on a satellite-miner to detect changes in small ice-caps/ snow-fields. Send me recommendations to optimise the program with.

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #580 on: March 10, 2020, 05:10:27 PM »
China has seen more cases from outside the country than internally spread recently.  (Note that this article is from March 6th.)

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-06/mainland-china-reports-99-new-confirmed-cases-of-coronavirus-on-march-6

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Shanghai Tightens Airport Checks as Imported Virus Infections in China Jump
March 6, 2020

BEIJING (REUTERS) - Shanghai increased airport screening on Saturday as imported coronavirus infections from countries such as Italy and Iran emerge as the biggest source of new cases in China outside Hubei, the province where the outbreak originated.

Mainland China had 99 new confirmed cases on Friday, according to official data. Of the 25 that were outside Hubei, 24 came from outside China.

However, they also have huge numbers of migrant workers who went home for the Lunar New Year holidays.  Many have yet to return to work.

Quote
In addition to the growing risk of imported infections, China faces a challenge in trying to get migrant workers back to work by early April.

So far, 78 million migrant workers, or 60% of those who left for the Lunar New Year holiday in January, have returned to work.

Yang Wenzhuang of the National Health Commission (NHC) said that the "risk of contagion from increased population flows and gathering is increasing ... We must not relax or lower the bar for virus control".

But new cases in mainland China continued to decline, with just 99 new cases on Friday, the lowest number the NHC started publishing nationwide figures on Jan. 20, against 143 on Thursday.

Most of these cases, which include infections of Chinese nationals who caught the virus abroad, were in the northwesterly Gansu province, among quarantined passengers who flew into the provincial capital Lanzhou from Iran between March 2 and 5.

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #581 on: March 10, 2020, 06:13:55 PM »
Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, I wasn't aware of the huge numbers of migrant workers in China.  In the articles I've read, the numbers of migrant workers are estimated to be between 280 and 300 million.  The large debt burdens of urban landowners and structural changes in the Chinese economy (increasing automation as factory workers earn higher wages, shift to a service economy) were already stressing the economy and the travel restrictions, quarantines and factory shutdowns  to control the outbreak will probably push the economy into a recession. 

The linked article focuses on the inequality issues related to the reliance on a huge number of migrant workers and implies that China may be in for a period of social unrest.  The recent unpleasantness in Hong Kong will seem mild compared to what may be coming.

https://qz.com/1813586/dexter-roberts-migrant-worker-inequality-threatens-chinas-future/

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Why China’s economic miracle is a myth made possible by exploitation of workers
March 8, 2020
Mary Hui
By Mary Hui

We’ve all heard the story countless times: China’s three-decade-long economic miracle propelled it from being an isolated backwater to a global powerhouse and the second-largest economy in the world, and hundreds of millions of people have managed to escape poverty.

What we’ve heard less about is the deeply unequal and exploitative system, centered around low-wage migrant workers from rural areas, that has fueled much of the country’s economic growth. These migrant workers, who make up almost half the national population, have been made second-class citizens and locked out of the huge economic windfall of China’s rapid development, argues writer and former China bureau chief of Bloomberg Businessweek Dexter Roberts. Roberts is now a fellow at the University of Montana’s Maureen and Mike Mansfield Center.

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The theme of the urban-rural divide plays out in other countries, too. What aspects of it are unique to China?

China is pretty unusual in that it still has, basically, this internal passport system, the hukou household registration system, that makes it very difficult for rural Chinese to actually settle in cities for reasons that are in the book. The fact is that rural Chinese can’t in general get access to affordable health care in cities, their children in general can’t go to the urban schools without paying a lot of money or they go to private schools that are often not as good. This is pretty unusual. There has been reforms, but it’s piecemeal and the general dimensions of the policy are still in place.

Similarly, with the land system, this fact that land in the countryside in theory belongs to the collective and therefore the farmers that actually till the land hold it—they are not, by and large, actually able to sell it. Or if they do they sell it at a very cheap price to local governments who then are able to re-define it as industrial or commercial land, and turn around and make a lot of money off it, but the farmers themselves can’t actually do that. By contrast, in the cities you’ve seen an explosion of wealth because… there are 70-year leases on the property in the city that will probably be extended. So there’s been this enormous and very, very lucrative real estate market for the urban people.

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Many have for decades predicted the demise of the Chinese Communist regime, and yet it has just continued to solidify its grip on power. In your view, is the threat different this time?

I think absolutely there’s more of a threat now… the fact that by and large these jobs that have supported migrant workers are going away. There’s also a policy push from the highest levels of the government in Beijing to try to automate factories.  And wages have gone way up. So there are a lot of other places that might be a better place for global supply chains to move.

So that’s sort of the big picture. You have millions of migrant workers who may no longer work in factories or construction sites who are supposed to re-invent themselves with a new form of employment. The service economy obviously is growing fast. A lot of the jobs in the service economy they’re taking are not the higher-paid jobs that Chinese policy makers were hoping for. So you have the phenomena of large numbers of migrant workers becoming delivery people on motorcycles, which frankly is a miserable job and is very dangerous with terrible rates of accidents. And then there’s the hope also that a large portion of them will go back to their villages and become entrepreneurs. It’s not clear how they can actually do that. Do they have the skills to do that?

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #582 on: March 17, 2020, 07:22:20 PM »
We're getting some data on the impact of measures to control the Covid-19 outbreak on the Chinese economy. 

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Power-Demand-Dives-In-2020.html

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China's Power Demand Dives In 2020
By Irina Slav - Mar 17, 2020

China’s power consumption in the first two months of the year fell 7.8 percent on 2019 because of the coronavirus outbreak, Reuters reports, citing data from the National Development and Reform Commission.

Power generation also fell, by 8.2 percent, in January and February, although since the beginning of March it has increased, the state planning agency also said.

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Factory output dropped by 13.5 percent in the period from a year earlier, the data showed, which was a record decline. Retail sales fell even more, by 20.5 percent. In energy, official data for fuel demand has yet to be released but consultancy Rystad Energy has calculated that road fuel demand alone suffered a blow of 1.5 million bpd in just February.

Forecasts for total fuel demand are a lot worse. State energy major CNPC said it expected this to have dropped by as much as 26 percent during the first quarter of the year. Gasoline demand, the company said, is seen 1.1 million bpd lower in January-March 2020 from a year earlier, and diesel demand is seen down by 790,000 bpd, or 25 percent.

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #583 on: March 20, 2020, 06:58:39 PM »
The resumption of the Chinese economy is going slower than expected.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3076128/coronavirus-chinas-economic-emergence-lockdown-continues

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Coronavirus: China’s economic emergence from lockdown continues with electricity, coal, transport gains

    Indicators for electricity and coal power generation, as well as car sales, port traffic and passenger activity, have shown signs of improvement as factories gradually resume production
    But economists say the rebound is progressing slower than expected, meaning a full recovery could take longer
Sidney Leng and Frank Tang in Beijing
20 Mar, 2020

While the coronavirus pandemic is just starting to upend economies in the United States and Europe, preliminary data for March suggested that the recovery of the China economy is making progress with the domestic outbreak seemingly under control.

But with the pace of the recovery in China still modest, a full recovery is likely to take somewhat longer than previously expected, analysts said.

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Coal consumption by China’s six major power generation groups also rebounded this week to 76 per cent of pre-Lunar New Year levels, up from 66 per cent in the second half of February, but still below the 95 per cent that would normally have been reached at this stage after the annual holiday.

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The Chinese government estimated last week that 60 per cent of small and medium-sized enterprises and 95 per cent of large companies outside Hubei had restarted operations, although there are doubts over the rate of recovery.

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An economic activity index from Beijing-based consultancy Trivium also showed firms had still only reached 70 to 80 per cent of their normal capacity.

In many Chinese provinces, a company is said to have resumed operations if it is operating at 33 per cent or more of normal capacity.

“The daily indicators that we use to track the resumption of the economy continue to pick up substantially slower than we expected earlier on,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics from consultancy Oxford Economics.

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Some economists’ estimates for China’s full year growth rate were cut just to 1 per cent after the worse-than-expected economic data for January and February was released on Monday.

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #584 on: March 24, 2020, 06:55:41 PM »
The shutdown of China to control the coronavirus resulted in a decrease in all methods of electricity generation, except solar.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/03/24/chinas-covid-19-lockdown-crushed-every-other-form-of-energy-generation-but-solar-grew/#1059a9072370

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Mar 24, 2020,12:00am EDT
China’s COVID-19 Lockdown Crushed Every Form Of Energy Generation Except Solar
Jeff McMahon

As China shuttered industries during its coronavirus lockdown in January and February, every form of energy production dropped from prior-year performance but one.

Solar was up 12 percent.

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Overall electricity production was down 8.2 percent.

• Thermal power—dominated by coal—plunged 8.9 percent, hydropower by 11.9, nuclear by 2.2.

Wind was slightly down 0.2 percent.

• While solar was up 12 percent.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, believes renewables were protected “above all” by their zero marginal cost. Every additional unit of thermal energy requires the producer to buy additional fuel. The sun demands no such payment.

kassy

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #585 on: March 24, 2020, 07:41:19 PM »
The sun is great.  :)

Off course there is a slightly other way to read it.

Whatever you have in solar is going to give as much as the sun (and weather etc) allows. There is no reason to shut it off because we do not have enough anyway.

The others are mainly a response to drop out of industrial use.
Wind could be a factor of just wind.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #586 on: March 24, 2020, 10:05:50 PM »
I bet Solar partly increased thanks to clear sky above China.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #587 on: March 24, 2020, 11:31:08 PM »
^^
Sounds reasonable.


Lots of changes will be seen as much of the world's industry and transportation grinds to a halt.


Stay Well
Terry

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #588 on: March 26, 2020, 09:33:04 PM »
China is working on their next five-year plan, due to be approved in 2021.  Their coal industry is lobbying to be a big part of the plan, despite having such an oversupply now that the capacity factors for coal plants are less than 50%.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-china-build-hundreds-of-new-coal-plants-in-the-2020s

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24 March 2020
Analysis: Will China build hundreds of new coal plants in the 2020s?

China’s 14th five-year plan (FYP), setting out its national goals for 2021-2025, will arguably be one of the world’s most important documents for global efforts to tackle climate change.

The overarching plan for economic and social development in the world’s largest emitter is to be finalised and approved in early 2021, followed by more detailed sectoral targets over the next year. A power sector plan can be expected around winter 2021-22.

Ahead of the FYP’s publication, powerful stakeholders, such as the network operator State Grid and industry body the China Electricity Council, are lobbying for targets that would allow hundreds of new coal-fired power stations to be built. And a recent update to the “traffic light system” for new coal-power construction signaled further relaxation of permitting.

This is all despite significant overcapacity in the sector, with more than half of coal-power firms already loss-making and with typical plants running at less than 50% of their capacity.


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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #589 on: March 28, 2020, 11:53:21 PM »
The antagonism between the US and China has increased with the pointing of fingers about where patient zero for COVID 19 is from. Plus, the US is increasing its belligerence during the epidemic, with labelling the President of Venezuela as a criminal drug pusher, refusing to reduce sanctions on Iran, trying to blame Iran for helping to spread the virus in a G7 communique which was blocked by other counties, and with rumours of moves by the US against "Iran backed" groups in Iraq.

Oil may be much cheaper now, but it is still the biggest energy security risk for China with respect to conflict with the US. So China keeps a very large electricity generating reserve for emergencies (the low coal plant utilization rate) and plans for greater amounts of transport conversion from oil to electricity (much of it powered by coal).

Geopolitics trumps long term survival! Very depressing.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #590 on: March 29, 2020, 09:49:29 AM »
As the Wuhan quarantine is being lifted the first train left the Wuhan Station yesterday carrying medical supplies and construction material for Europe.


https://www.rt.com/news/484344-china-wuhan-first-train/


First train with medical supplies for Europe leaves Wuhan as China eases Covid-19 lockdown
It will arrive in Germany with its precious cargo in 2 weeks. This will be the first China-Eu. freight train since service was cut in January.
Terry

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #591 on: March 29, 2020, 11:20:58 AM »
Wow, i didn't even know there was a direct China-EU train connection.  :o

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #592 on: April 17, 2020, 01:09:42 AM »
The Chinese economy is trying to rebound from the Covid-19 closure, but consumers aren't spending.

https://apnews.com/a981361007aed7aa427a85af42623e23

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China tries to revive economy but consumer engine sputters
By JOE McDONALD
April 16, 2020

BEIJING (AP) — China, where the coronavirus pandemic started in December, is cautiously trying to get back to business, but it’s not easy when many millions of workers are wary of spending much or even going out.

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Factories reopened in March after President Xi Jinping visited Wuhan, the city at the center of the outbreak, in a sign of confidence the virus was under control. But the consumers whose spending propels China’s economic growth are still afraid of losing their jobs or catching the virus. They are holding onto their money despite official efforts to lure them back to shopping malls and auto showrooms.

Data due out Friday is expected to show the economy contracted by up to 9% in January-March, its worst performance since the late 1970s.

That is a blow to automakers and other global companies that hope China, after leading the way into a global shutdown, might power a recovery from the most painful slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

“What is not fully back, or is completely missing, is the demand,” said Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics.

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In China, manufacturing is back to 80% of usual levels, but urban traffic, power use and other indicators of daily life are at half to 65% of normal.

At the same time, public anxiety has been fed by reports of new outbreaks that have led to more controls.

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #593 on: April 17, 2020, 06:55:35 PM »
China's economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-04-17/chinese-economy-contracts-68-as-coronavirus-cases-revised-higher

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Chinese Economy Contracts 6.8% as Coronavirus Cases Revised Higher
The Chinese economy plunged nearly 7% in the first quarter, painting a grim picture of what’s in store for the rest of the world.
By Andrew Soergel, Senior Writer, Economics April 17, 2020

China's economy contracted 6.8% during the first three months of the year from the year prior – representing the country's first and largest reported economic decline since it began formally reporting data in the 1990s.

The reported annual drop was less severe than many analysts expected – even as the country seems to have brought its coronavirus outbreak under control, reporting a little more than 83,000 cases and more than 4,600 deaths, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University.

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China's quarterly economic decline and cautious consumer rebound foreshadows what's in store for the rest of the world as first and second quarter gross domestic product reports are released. Like in China, economic experts predict the bulk of the international damage will be accumulated early on in each country's individual outbreak, when lockdown measures are at their most prevalent. But as some European countries begin partially reopening in the coming days and weeks, Chinese consumers' reluctance to spend money suggests an immediate V-shaped recovery will not be in the cards for many world governments.

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #594 on: April 18, 2020, 08:05:10 AM »
Wow, i didn't even know there was a direct China-EU train connection.  :o
There are plenty of services nowadays and demand is booming because air freight rates have multiplied in the absence of passenger flight belly freight capacity. Wuhan is only one of the hubs and most of then have been up and running since a relatively short break during and after the Spring Festival and following lockdowns

https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2020/03/17/china-europe-train-traffic-back-on-track-by-90/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2020/03/31/china-europe-rail-is-set-to-boom-as-covid-19-chokes-air-sea-and-road-transport/


blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #595 on: April 18, 2020, 08:38:21 AM »
Thanks for the links, Bluice.

blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #596 on: May 02, 2020, 02:12:26 PM »
Podcast:

Sifting Through Anti-China Disinformation w/ Ian Goodrum - MEDIA ROOTS RADIO

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Abby and Robbie Martin speak to Ian Goodrum of China Daily. During the course of their conversation they cover a whole range of issues frequently raised in the US like the 'social credit system', 5G, the COVID-19 lab leak theories, and draconian surveillance. Ian also explains why he believes the hostilities between the United States have been growing, based largely on ruling class profit motivations, Obama's 'Asia pivot', and Trump's trade war.

Webplayer >> https://overcast.fm/+BMjGNxb50

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #597 on: August 10, 2020, 09:01:08 PM »
China is developing its five-year plan for 2021-2025.  If they take into account the need to produce electricity as cheaply as other nations, that should lead to a big increase in the share of renewable energy in thier electricity generation system.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2020/08/10/plummeting-renewable-energy-battery-prices-mean-china-could-hit-62-clean-power-and-cut-costs-11-by-2030/#66621451519b

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Plummeting Renewable Energy, Battery Prices Mean China Could Hit 62% Clean Power And Cut Costs 11% By 2030
Aug 10, 2020
Silvio Marcacci

China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, and is building the most power plants of any country in the world, making its decarbonization paramount to preventing dangerous climate change. But the costs of wind, solar, and energy storage have fallen so fast that building clean power is now cheaper than building fossil fuels – a lot cheaper.

New research shows plummeting clean energy prices mean China could reliably run its grids on at least 62% non-fossil electricity generation by 2030, while cutting costs 11% compared to a business-as-usual approach. Once again, it’s cheaper to save the climate than destroy it.

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China plans its economy in “Five Year Plans” guiding development and serving as the principal measure of performance for government officials. The plans lay out binding, quantitative targets for everything from the economy and infrastructure, to health and social development, to the environment.

China’s leaders are currently developing the 14th Five Year Plan for 2021-2025, and greater climate and clean energy ambition could accelerate decarbonization. For example, the country’s current climate goals allow emissions to increase through 2030 before declining, and to date the country’s carbon dioxide (CO2) targets have been expressed as carbon intensity per unit of GDP allowing for emissions increases with economic growth.

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But as the new paper from Stony Brook University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory researchers points out, even these optimistic analyses fail to capture just how dramatically renewable energy and storage prices have dropped in recent years. The global weighted-average levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) of utility-scale solar panels, onshore wind, and battery storage have fallen by 77%, 35%, and 85%, respectively, between 2010 and 2018.