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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #150 on: February 28, 2015, 06:56:08 PM »
China is currently engaged in a charm offensives to strengthen relations with the African Union, AU, and is committing to pour billions of dollars of investments into the world's second largest continent in order to both continue BAU economic development and to obtain greater diplomatic influence with developing countries as it exhibited at the IPCC COP discussions in Peru where almost all African countries supported the China lead initiative to blunt any agreement calling for large mandatory cuts in GHG emissions.  Communist China is not a democracy and they can effectively use strongman (Xi Jinping) rule to effectively thwart EU and US lead efforts to slow down BAU growth in the developing world (see links and extracts).  With such economic/political developments so well advanced it will likely prove impossible to stay below RCP 6.0 thru at least 2070:

http://mgafrica.com/article/2015-02-06-china-surges-charm-offensive-in-big-year-for-relations-with-africa

Extract: "At the heads of states and government summit last month, China inked a deal with the AU that commits it to a staggering plan to connect all 54 member states through a network of modern highways, airports and high speed railways."

http://www.worldcoal.com/coal/27022015/China-investment-in-African-resources-increasing-1981/

Extract: "“China has been rapidly expanding its global footprint via international acquisitions as it gradually evolves into a capital exporting country”, said Dr Fang. “The economic slowdown of growth in China is unlikely to hinder global commerce but is likely to unlock further opportunities for African mining and other sectors as well”."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #151 on: March 01, 2015, 04:54:35 PM »
Work has begun on a shipping canal across Nicaragua, by a Chinese billionaire, with a total estimated development cost of $50 Billion. Additionally, the agreement allows the developer to build roads, two ports, an airport, a free trade zone and a tourism complex, and to immigrate large numbers of Chinese workers to Nicaragua (the second poorest country in Latin America).  As no one can figure-out how such a project (that started construction in January 2015) could turn a profit for the billionaire; there is widespread speculation (see linked article and extracts) that the Communist Chinese government is using the billionaire as a front in order to gain geopolitical gains throughout Latin America, to thwart US interests, and to better secure their supply lines in the coming era of increasing geopolitical conflicts.

This all implies that China can meet their GHG emission goals by pushing emissions overseas to still poorer developing countries (in Latin America, Africa and South/Southeast Asia) while ensuring their own wealth and security using strongman tactics (such as buying local patronage by building discounted infrastructure in order to continue resource exploitation in some of the poorest countries in the world).  With over 1 billion people worldwide living off of incomes of USD $1.25 per day, or less; China's strategy to express the moral imperative of developing the economies for such people, while paying for such developments by largely unregulated resource development, should allow China to water-down any COP21 plan in Paris to allow them to continue on a BAU pathway for developing countries, for decades to come.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102451065#.

Extract: "The development plans include the building of roads, two ports—one in the Pacific and another one in the Caribbean—an airport, a free trade zone and a tourism complex with hotels. HKND has approval to build some of the other elements even if it doesn't build the canal itself.



Naturally, the lack of an apparent financial feasibility has raised questions about whether the Nicaragua Grand Canal is a commercial project for HKND—or a geopolitical project for the Chinese government.



If Beijing is the project's real sponsor, then its essentially limitless pockets would mean big problems for Panama.

"If there are geopolitical interests behind the building of the canal, and the investment returns do not matter, and nothing has to be repaid, then the Panama Canal would be severely affected. There is not enough demand for two canals," Sabonge said."

Edit: The following linked article (see extract) elaborates on why the Communist Chinese government may well be working in the background (as opposed to up-front as they are doing in Africa):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/26/us-nicaragua-canal-idUSKBN0K410620141226

Extract: "For now, China's government can stay aloof and claim no part in the project in case it founders, experts say.

"If the Chinese government is behind this project, it has to be responsible for everything," said an official from Taiwan's embassy in Nicaragua, speaking on condition of anonymity. "If it fails, that's a bad image. They have to maintain their distance."
China's involvement would be a direct challenge to the United States, which controlled the Panama Canal until 1999."
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 05:07:12 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #152 on: March 01, 2015, 06:06:58 PM »
The linked article indicates that that Communist Chinese government is supporting calls to limit air pollution from the standpoint of public health.  This supports the idea that Communist China will move aggressively to cut aerosol emissions associated with public health (which will reduce the negative radiative forcing associated with such aerosols), while still allowing the Communist government to continue gunning GHG emissions through 2030 by such means as hydrofracking and pipeline, development of natural gas which do not threaten the public health directly.

http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/01/documentary-on-air-pollution-in-china-grips-a-nation/?_r=0

Extract: "So far at least, the government has not shut off the documentary, and some officials may welcome the chance to build greater support for cutting pollution. The website of People’s Daily, the ruling Communist Party’s main newspaper, was one of the first to post “Under the Dome.” And the recently appointed minister of environmental protection, Chen Jining, praised the video. He told Sina.com, a Chinese website, that he had watched it and sent a message to Ms. Chai.
“Chai Jing’s documentary calls for public environmental consciousness from the standpoint of public health,” Mr. Chen said. “It deserves admiration.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #153 on: March 02, 2015, 07:08:11 PM »
The linked article points to research showing that China's efforts to clean-up its air pollution does not necessarily lead to reduced GHG emissions and that in some cases it actually increases GHG emissions.  The researchers conclude that implementing carbon pricing would be a much better way for China to limit GHG emissions (if its leaders were serious about fighting climate change):

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-s-war-on-air-pollution-may-cause-more-global-warming/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #154 on: March 02, 2015, 08:38:38 PM »
More on the new Chinese air pollution documentary, "Under the Dome." (See ASLR @152 above.) The article has a link to the video on YouTube, which is being crowdsourced for an English translation.

Quote
One of China’s most prominent environmentalists, Ma Jun, told the Guardian that this $160,000 documentary has become “one of the most important pieces of public awareness of all time by the Chinese media.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/02/3628458/chinese-air-pollution-documentary-clears-the-haze/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #155 on: March 03, 2015, 12:24:37 AM »
China's bursting coal bubble.
Quote
Chinese thermal coal peaking is like changing the direction on an escalator. It will be a shock for those who assumed the direction would always be up,” said James Leaton, research director at Carbon Tracker Initiative.

These sudden shifts in sentiment away from coal in China are already forcing producers to cut back hard and restructure their business models. Rio Tinto last week merged its coal and copper mining divisions, and announced significant cuts in Australia.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11443648/Chinas-bursting-coal-bubble-raises-fear-of-stranded-assets.html
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Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #156 on: March 03, 2015, 06:35:13 PM »

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #157 on: March 03, 2015, 06:56:44 PM »
Meat boom propels China's ecosystems into total collapse
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2776847/meat_boom_propels_chinas_ecosystems_into_total_collapse.html

Laurent,

Thanks for the link.  The following extract makes it clear to me that as the Chinese tend to believe that nature is there to serve the wishes of man, and as they have a large reserve of funds (from decades of trade imbalances), they will put a lot of pressure on forestlands in South America, Africa, Southeast Asia; which will result in accelerated global deforestation and reduced CO2 absorption rates:

Extract: "But there's a larger-scale context to this problem that may affect us all. China's grain production has risen fivefold since the 1950s, outstripping the pace of population growth. Despite this, the nation is no longer self-sufficient.

The shift towards more meat production has placed a demand for soybean and cereal animal feed that can no longer be met internally. In 2012, China imported more than 60% of all the world's soybeans that were available for export, and cereal imports are also on the up.

Reliance on imports to fill a shortfall in home produce is nothing new. But in China's case, the additional risk that agriculture is increasingly unsustainable may amplify the demand. The potential scale of demand for imports is bound to have repercussions for global food production and food prices.

Unless reforms are introduced quickly, the rest of the world may well find that they are sharing China's trade-off with nature .. "
« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 10:04:17 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #158 on: March 03, 2015, 09:12:27 PM »
Quote
Unless reforms are introduced quickly, the rest of the world may well find that they are sharing China's trade-off with nature
Of course, we are already sharing the outcome of China's 'trade-off with nature'.  And more so, the USA's century's worth of 'trade-off with nature', etc., etc.

Recent posts here sure support a doom and gloom future.  I expect that a multi-year drought in China will let us see what a super-power does to feed its people to prevent rebellion at home.
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icefest

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #159 on: March 03, 2015, 09:19:31 PM »
While there is much debate in the western world about "red" china (why do people feel the need to add red/communist in front of it anyway?); I feel that China will be the least of our problems in the long term. The current growth trajectory of India, and the lack of a stable committed government introduces much more carbon risk than a China where the birth rate is less than 2 people per couple.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #160 on: March 03, 2015, 10:49:11 PM »
While there is much debate in the western world about "red" china (why do people feel the need to add red/communist in front of it anyway?); I feel that China will be the least of our problems in the long term. The current growth trajectory of India, and the lack of a stable committed government introduces much more carbon risk than a China where the birth rate is less than 2 people per couple.

First, Taiwan used to claim leadership for all of China (see the link below for the residual complex politics associated with this matter, and note that Communist China still claims rights to Taiwan), so as to avoid confusion for older readers, referring to Communist China can help.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/washingtons-obsolete-taiwan-policy/
 
Second, as a communist country China operates internationally in a different manner than purely capitalistic countries; and readers would do well to recognize this reality, as it means that they will work strategically to gain access to resources and food internationally, as well as to gain third world support in the UN and at the COP21 negotiations in Paris.

Third, climate change is about radiative forcing and the rapidly growing middle class in Communist China will have a much larger carbon footprint in the coming decades than will the average person in India.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2015, 01:04:48 PM by AbruptSLR »
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icefest

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #161 on: March 04, 2015, 03:21:50 AM »
Thank you for the clarification ASLR.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #162 on: March 07, 2015, 01:02:24 AM »
China tries to ditch its coal addiction, and reduce its energy intensity.
Quote
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in its annual report on Thursday that it would implement policies aimed at reducing coal consumption and controlling the number of energy-intensive projects in polluted regions.

China is trying to strike a balance between improving its environment and restructuring away from an economy dominated by energy intensive industries like steel making and construction towards one focused more on consumption and the service sector.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/05/us-china-parliament-ndrc-idUSKBN0M108V20150305
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #163 on: March 07, 2015, 02:54:42 AM »
This updated article on the viral video "Under The Dome" now is linked to a version that has English subtitles.
http://www.takepart.com/video/2015/03/02/china-air-pollution-smog-crisis-carbon-pollution-viral-video
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #164 on: March 07, 2015, 04:51:56 PM »
"Under the Dome" video has now been blocked from mainland China websites.
Quote
The video's disappearance comes as the country's top annual political meeting, the National People's Congress (NPC), is underway in Beijing, under thick white skies and with the city's air quality registering as "very unhealthy", according to a US embassy reading.

Online discussions related to the video remain unblocked on China's popular social networks, and users of China's Twitter-like Sina Weibo on Saturday voiced frustration with the government's abrupt censorship move.

"Chai Jing's documentary, 'Under the Dome', has already been 'harmonised' on all of the mainstream video sites," wrote one user on Sina Weibo, using an ironic term for authorities' blocking of objectionable content. "Why? Give us a reason first!"

"When will this country be able to face the attitudes of its own people?" another Sina Weibo user wrote.
http://www.france24.com/en/20150307-smog-documentary-blocked-china-after-becoming-viral-hit/
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Lewis C

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #165 on: March 07, 2015, 07:59:24 PM »
Good comment by Aubrey Meyer of GCI in response to the Guardian's article on Thursday.

" AMeyer    2d ago


The subject of Li Keqiang's comments above are Chinese Pollution local to China. The only aspect of Chinese Pollution that is not local to China but global is Greenhouse Gas Pollution.

Non-Chinese people and countries other than China may be legitimately concerned about those emissions. However, if they are concerned about this, there is a lot more to concerned about than just China.

We (globally) have already gone over an 'event-horizon' that now leads - according to NASA - inexorably to the full collapse of the Antarctic ice-shelf as a result of 80% of emissions having come from the industrial countries.

If there is to be any chance of not crossing an 'event-horizon' to uncontrollable rates of climate change taking hold globally, seriously organized rates of international emissions-control are needed urgently. "

A link in the above may not repost, so here's the address for those interested in how nations' rights and duties towards the Atmospheric Commons can be allocated: http://morphic.it/cbat/#domain-1 

Regards,
Lewis


Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #166 on: March 07, 2015, 10:56:06 PM »

wili

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #167 on: March 07, 2015, 11:45:42 PM »
Good catch, but a bit late to the game here, Bob (you haven't been out trying to make a living or anything, have you [ghasp] ! ;D). Back on Feb. 27 over on the coal thread, I wrote:

Quote
WSJ and now a few other sources are claiming that China's total coal consumption actually fell last year (didn't just grow at a slower rate) by 2.9%.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/26/3627490/china-coal-peak/

If confirmed, this is potentially pretty big news, especially if its a result of policy and not just slowdown or some random temporary set of coincidences.

I guess Bob Wallace is traveling, or probably he'd be all over this with plenty of gloat and 'I told ya so'!  ;D

CarbonBrief claims that their total CO2 emissions may have fallen, too (last graph), though this is preliminary. http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/02/official-data-confirms-chinese-coal-use-fell-in-2014/
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #168 on: March 08, 2015, 12:28:44 AM »
Out of the country for a couple of months.  Spending money rather than making more.

You brought the news, but did you post any pretty pictures like those?


Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #169 on: March 08, 2015, 10:07:19 PM »
Quote
China's State Council unveiled an Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020) last year that promises to cap annual primary energy consumption at 4.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent until 2020.

That means the annual growth of primary energy consumption must be limited within 3.5 percent for the next six years.

In addition to controlling the volume of energy use, the NEA is also stepping up efforts to reduce coal consumption and boost the share of non-fossil fuels.

Currently, China's coal consumption accounts for about 66 percent of the primary energy use, 35 percentage points higher than the world average.

China aims to bring the share of non-fossil energy to 15 percent by 2020 and 20 percent by 2030.

According to the annual government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang Thursday, the Chinese government plans to reduce the energy intensity, or units of energy per unit of GDP, by 3.1 percent in 2015.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-03/05/c_134041972.htm

wili

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #170 on: March 09, 2015, 04:04:43 AM »
Welcome back, and hope you had a nice trip.

And yes, those are rather nice little graphs! :)

But hear are some other numbers to contemplate:
Quote
China’s installed coal capacity will increase from 846 GW last year to around 1016 GW by 2018 and more than 1367 GW in 10 years’ time

http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2015/02/china-coal-capacity-forecast-to-hit-1367-gw.html
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

viddaloo

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #171 on: March 09, 2015, 04:48:49 AM »
Welcome back, and hope you had a nice trip.

And yes, those are rather nice little graphs! :)

I ditto that, wili: Welcome back, Bob!  ;D

And nice looking graphs are very important. A central band from the Oslo punk scene used to be called Life… But How To Live It?. Add twenty years and you have Collapse, but how to graph it?
[]

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #172 on: March 09, 2015, 05:21:16 AM »
Welcome back, and hope you had a nice trip.

And yes, those are rather nice little graphs! :)

But hear are some other numbers to contemplate:
Quote
China’s installed coal capacity will increase from 846 GW last year to around 1016 GW by 2018 and more than 1367 GW in 10 years’ time

http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2015/02/china-coal-capacity-forecast-to-hit-1367-gw.html

I don't know what to make of those claims given that the Chinese government has stated that they intend to cut coal use.

Perhaps whomever put those numbers together failed to count in plants that are to be closed.  (That is very commonly done when people talk about Germany building coal plants.

Quote
More than 70 percent of China's coal firms are making losses, the head of the coal industry association said on Thursday, with prices eroded by falling demand growth, a worsening supply glut and a war on smog.

Wang Xianzheng, the chairman of the China Coal Industry Association, told an industry forum that the problems facing the coal sector were expected to get worse, official news agency Xinhua reported.

Wang said the problems had been piling up for the sector since the second half of 2012, with slowing consumption growth unable to absorb sustained capacity increases, especially in the face of rising imports.

He added that more than half of Chinese coal enterprises were now struggling to pay the wages of their workers.

As part of its war on pollution, China has been trying to reduce the share of coal in its overall energy mix. It has vowed to cap total production capacity at 4.1 billion tonnes by 2015, and has been closing coal-fired power plants in smog-hit regions like Beijing.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0FT1GG20140724

It could be that China is building, like German, supercritical coal plants that can load follow.  Perhaps they need more power during limited times of the year but intend to dial these plants back or shut them down a lot of the time.  Increased capacity does not automatically mean increased consumption.

Or it could be that China intends to increase coal plant capacity for electricity generation while decreasing coal use for other purposes.  Here's a quote from an interview with a Chinese official...

Quote
“Today, there are approximately 600,000 industrial boilers in China that still use coal-fired boilers and direct coal firing for heating; most of these are in residential areas in urban centers in north China. Taking Beijing as an example, there are still 44,000 households with coal stoves in the western district within 2nd Ring Road; the impact of urban environmental pollution caused from these coal stoves is direct and severe.”

wili

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #173 on: March 09, 2015, 12:09:55 PM »
"Or it could be that China intends to increase coal plant capacity for electricity generation while decreasing coal use for other purposes."

Good point. IIRC, they are also decreasing the smelting of Pig iron, which is a very coal-intensive activity.

Of coarse, as with the US, some of this reduction may in fact be another case of 'off shoring' their emissions.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Csnavywx

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #174 on: March 09, 2015, 05:45:02 PM »
Article is a bit old, but it might provide some perspective:

http://fortune.com/2014/07/11/coal-china/

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #175 on: March 13, 2015, 03:18:02 PM »
In order to help meet their carbon emission targets maybe China can/will import more cheap high-carbon-footprint goods from India:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/03/12/india-budget-energy-idINKBN0M812D20150312
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #176 on: March 13, 2015, 11:37:27 PM »
Chinese climate video was banned because it was too popular?
Quote
The banning of ‘Under the Dome’ is not a Chinese governmental denial or rejection of environmental concerns or Chai Jing’s argument,” said Daly, who believes instead that the ban is a reminder that the the Central Government insists on setting the agenda and providing the solutions. Daly said that Chai Jing’s telling of the story in a very personal voice, and her statement that fighting air pollution was a “personal battle” are radical notions in China.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/13/3633355/china-smog-documentay-banned-after-going-viral/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #177 on: March 15, 2015, 07:06:54 AM »
The only explanation I've seen is that the government did not want to create a celebrity.

They knew the film was being made, there are fairly high ranking officials interviewed in the film.  The government is not trying to hide the air pollution problem, they've openly talked about it and have been working to decrease levels.

If anything it seems like the central government hanging on to power and preventing people outside the government from gaining political/popular power.   

AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #178 on: March 16, 2015, 03:38:33 PM »
The linked Carbon Counter article entitled: "China has already exceeded its 2015 "cap" on energy consumption" shows that China's emissions statistic cannot always be relied upon and are subject to revision subject to the objectives of the Communist Party: 

https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/china-has-already-exceeded-its-2015-cap-on-coal-production/

Extact: "China has put in place plans to “cap” coal consumption and production in 2020. For whatever reason, this is regularly rendered as “China has plans to peak coal consumption by 2020″. This is not exactly correct. The cap itself can, and probably will, simply increase after 2020.



China has already exceeded its 2015 cap on coal production, and it did so two years ago. You won’t know this if you read the BP Statistical Review of World Energy or any other set of published statistics. They still tell you that China produced 3.68 billion tonnes of coal in 2013.
However, buried in a recently published statistical communique from China is the following important note, data have been revised based on the results of the Third National Economic Census. The output of coal in 2013 has been revised from 3.68 billion tons to 3.97 billion tons.
In other words, coal production in 2013 was revised upwards by 7.9%, and by 0.29 billion tonnes. This revision is the equivalent of 1/3 of the annual coal production of America.
And this raises another problem. There is a long history of official manipulation of statistics in China."
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Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #179 on: March 17, 2015, 05:50:04 AM »
A few years back China predicted peak coal use in 2015. Later they stated that they would not be able to peak in 2015, but it might take them until 2015.

China slowed growth in coal use starting in 2012 and consumption fell a bit in 2014 from their 2013 high.



China may or may not have hit peak coal. It is quite possible that we'll see some modest upturn over the next couple of years.  But China continues to aggressively install renewable energy and has slowed its growth in electricity consumption.

I think it's relatively safe to say that China is bouncing around on the top of their 'coal plateau' and is likely to be decreasing coal consumption sooner than 2020.

Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #180 on: March 17, 2015, 10:36:45 PM »

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #181 on: March 18, 2015, 06:24:19 AM »



Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #182 on: March 18, 2015, 04:12:29 PM »
China lifts solar installation target for 2015 by 19%, with a focus on commercial installations.
Quote
China has set a record high solar installation target of 17.8GW for 2015, according to official documents released by the National Energy Administration on Tuesday – a 19 per cent jump on the 15GW target floated in January.

The new solar target contains no designated quotas for utility-scale or distributed projects, according to Deutsche Bank, which will instead be left for provincial governments to designate. But changes to policy have turned the focus from the distributed market to commercial installations.

But the NEA has introduced a more streamlined project approvals process to the policy, which could make the target – which is a whopping 37 per cent higher than Deutsche Bank’s estimates of 13GW – easier to achieve.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/china-lifts-solar-installation-target-for-2015-by-19-18471
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #183 on: March 24, 2015, 12:57:45 AM »
Let's see if he keeps his job....

Top Chinese Official Says Climate Change Is “Serious Threat,” Could Have “Huge Impact”
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/23/china_global_warming_meteorologist.html
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mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #184 on: March 24, 2015, 03:20:48 AM »
China is very serious about reducing their pollution and carbon emissions.
and so it goes

Shared Humanity

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #185 on: March 24, 2015, 04:14:43 AM »
China lifts solar installation target for 2015 by 19%, with a focus on commercial installations.
Quote
China has set a record high solar installation target of 17.8GW for 2015, according to official documents released by the National Energy Administration on Tuesday – a 19 per cent jump on the 15GW target floated in January.

The new solar target contains no designated quotas for utility-scale or distributed projects, according to Deutsche Bank, which will instead be left for provincial governments to designate. But changes to policy have turned the focus from the distributed market to commercial installations.

But the NEA has introduced a more streamlined project approvals process to the policy, which could make the target – which is a whopping 37 per cent higher than Deutsche Bank’s estimates of 13GW – easier to achieve.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/china-lifts-solar-installation-target-for-2015-by-19-18471

That is impressive. Too bad the U.S. doesn't have the technology to do this.

Bruce Steele

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #186 on: March 24, 2015, 06:24:53 AM »
" Too bad the U.S. doesn't have the " technology " to do this "...   Shouldn't the word be Huevos ?
But anyway too bad.


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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #187 on: March 24, 2015, 08:56:43 PM »
Just like we would for any figures coming from the US government or groups which front for them we have to maintain a critical eye on all these stats from China as well.  They have political and security  agendas just like everyone else.

There are lots of reasons one needs to keep it all in perspective and all the factors in mind.  Here are a few of the things we watch in America that are relevant with China as well.

China tries to make it look like they are being a 'good'actor on the world stage when the reality is often different.

China subsidizes their industries and is buying a lot of renewable capacity an economic stimulus and an attempt to keep their renewable industry the strongest.  Or are they really focused on getting rid of fossil capacity.  They built entire cities they do not use as a stimulus.  Is it possible this is the same thing?

China is undergoing a big economic slowdown which often skews statistics and allows for all kinds of interpretations.  Fewer orders mean the factories run less and consumption of fuels drops along with emissions.  This is often temporary as we know.

China is where the US has off shored lots of its manufacturing so some of  its numbers belong to the US.

China is in the process of off shoring some of its industries to lower its pollution but it will still be responsible for that pollution where ever it is generated.  If it is generated it is generated.

Are renewables replacing fossil power capacity or just adding to capacity?

Are we looking at daily weather here or are we looking at a changing climate?  Do the trends we 'think' we might be seeing (not much data to look at in general) reflect real change, and most importantly do they have any prospect of really solving any big problem?

CO2 concentrations are rising steadily and carbon emissions are growing and at record levels year after year.  Someone out there is lying I think.

I watch China like a hawk.  The only thing I see right now of real significance is the economic slowdown there.  Depending on how that plays out there could be very significant events come out of it.  It could be the trigger to drop the whole world into another big down economic cycle with all that implies.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #188 on: March 24, 2015, 09:25:14 PM »
Here is something interesting going on in China (and to some extent in India).  Is this good or bad or of no consequence?

Quote
...China has long been one of the world’s leading suppliers of small arms, but its sale of the frigates was not an anomaly. As the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported in mid-March, China is now the world’s third-largest arms exporter, having overtaken France and Germany, and trailing behind Russia and the United States. In 2010 to 2014, not only was China’s share of global arms sales nearly double that of the previous five-year period — 5 percent as against 3 percent in 2005 to 2009 — but its exports of major weapons platforms rose by 143 percent compared to the previous half-decade.

Over the next decade, advanced weapons platforms — once the purview of Western and Russian defense industries — will flood the arms market as China, and to a lesser degree India, become global suppliers. Developing countries that once could only afford secondhand Cold War-era weapons will soon be able to acquire everything from modern fighter aircraft and warships to precision-guided munitions, all without breaking the bank. And not unlike with consumer electronics, the quality of these platforms will increase over time, even as their prices fall....

I imagine that US defense interests will not have a qualm about using this kind of information to demand increased defense spending here in the US.  I imagine it will also prompt additional spending in a lot of places.  And some of it will likely be used.  This bleeds resources away from fixing climate change and focuses our attention of the near term strategic interests instead.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/20/chinas-weapons-of-mass-consumption/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #189 on: March 25, 2015, 01:45:02 AM »
Chinese city prepares to pump almost $800M into electric car incentives
Quote
Shenzhen city, which is home to Warren Buffett-backed Chinese electric-car maker BYD Auto, will provide as much as 5 billion yuan ($799 million) in government funding to spur demand for green vehicles, according to an official statement released recently.

The statement says the fund will be used to subsidize purchasing of vehicles, to help reduce the cost of driving them, and to buy recharging infrastructure and develop regulations for Shenzhen, which is located just north of Hong Kong. It is one of the most crowded cities in the world, with more than 15 million inhabitants.

In addition to providing fiscal assistance, the statement notes, Shenzhen has ordered government departments and public transport agencies to purchase clean cars for their fleets.

Shenzhen's clean car promotion policy represents China's latest effort to remove fossil fuels from its transportation system. Policymakers here hope that an influx of clean cars will help the country fight pollution, cut carbon emissions and reduce its reliance on imported fuels.
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060015607
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JimD

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #190 on: March 25, 2015, 04:03:13 PM »
The slowdown in China's manufacturing sector has now gone slightly negative and is at levels approximating 1 year ago. 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/hsbc-march-preliminary-china-manufacturing-pmi-drops-1427163030
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

jai mitchell

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #191 on: March 25, 2015, 08:04:50 PM »
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/beijing-to-close-all-major-coal-power-plants-to-curb-pollution

Beijing to Shut All Major Coal Power Plants to Cut Pollution

The 4 local Beijing Coal-fired power plants will be retired early and replaced by natural gas to reduce pollution.

Quote
Beijing plans to cut annual coal consumption by 13 million metric tons by 2017 from the 2012 level in a bid to slash the concentration of pollutants
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JimD

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #192 on: March 26, 2015, 05:03:33 PM »
Some of their being able to try and execute this plan was the recent huge long term agreement between them and Russia for the delivery of gas at very attractive prices. 

Any reduction in coal consumption is a good thing even if it is replaced with gas.  But China is also in an economic slowdown which reduces some of the demand for coal and is also triggering stimulative spending.  Thus targeting the coal plants causing the most annoyance to the public works in very well.  And Beijing is not a manufacturing center either.

China, unfortunately, is still building coal powered plants.  It is all a very fluid situation and we won't know for sure if it actually follows pronouncements for some time.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #193 on: March 26, 2015, 10:35:57 PM »
Northern Taiwan instituting water rationing due to drought.
Quote
TAIPEI, Taiwan -- With drought conditions not improving, phase-three water rationing is scheduled to kick in on April 1, affecting areas supplied by the Shimen Reservoir, namely New Taipei City (Banqiao, Xinzhuang and Linkou) and Taoyuan.

The decision was made by the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) yesterday. Water supply will be cut for two days per week, and up to 1.02 million residents are expected to be affected by the new measures.

The Taiwan Water Corporation said water will probably be cut on Saturday and Sunday. The final rationing schedule will be publicized before April 1.
...
The island is seeing its worst drought in 67 years. Fall and winter rainfall reached an all-time-low since records began in 1947.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2015/03/20/431535/Tough-water.htm
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P-maker

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #194 on: March 27, 2015, 10:22:34 AM »
Jim D & Bob,

China’s biggest coal company – Shenhua – has announced a 25 % reduction in coal investments this year.

Coal analysts talk about a “structural decline” of the coal industry: (c.f. http://ieefa.org/shenhuas-bombshell-numbers-speak-volumes-chinas-coal-appetite-has-peaked/ ) .

Have aN ICE day!

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #195 on: March 27, 2015, 04:26:30 PM »
Jim D & Bob,

China’s biggest coal company – Shenhua – has announced a 25 % reduction in coal investments this year.

Coal analysts talk about a “structural decline” of the coal industry: (c.f. http://ieefa.org/shenhuas-bombshell-numbers-speak-volumes-chinas-coal-appetite-has-peaked/ ) .

Have aN ICE day!

While making headway against CO2 emissions from coal in China is good, I think that it is good to calibrate what we are talking about every so often, so I e-mailed MIT and asked them for their latest estimate of the current global atmospheric GHG concentrations in terms of CO2-equivalent, CO2-eq, and they responded that: "The latest forecasted CO2_eq for April 1, 2015 is 485.48ppm".

For methodology & background see the following linked sites:

http://agage.mit.edu/
http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/1975

So don't forget that China is shifting more to natural gas (including from Russia) and per the attached figure (from jai's post in the Science folder) for at least the next 40 to 60 years methane (with about 3% leakage) will contribute more to AGW than coal (not to mention that the aerosols from coal have negative radiative forcing that will soon be reduced).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #196 on: April 01, 2015, 06:38:14 PM »
The linked article summarizes what China is, and is not, doing currently to fight climate change:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/01/3641084/china-doing-good-things/
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Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #197 on: April 01, 2015, 08:34:44 PM »
I do not like what they are doing, that doesn't bode well for a futur peace with their neighbours (Vietnam, Philippines...)

China building a 'great wall of SAND': Coral reefs are being turned into artificial islands - and experts warn it is a 'severe threat' to marine life
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3021363/China-building-great-wall-SAND-Coral-reefs-turned-artificial-islands-experts-warn-severe-threat-marine-life.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #198 on: April 13, 2015, 09:11:05 PM »
Quote
China’s coal imports fell by nearly half in the first three months of the year as the slowing economy and tougher rules on pollution took their toll.

Imports by the world’s biggest coal consumer reached 49.07m tonnes in the first quarter, a fall of 42% on the same period a year ago according to data from the Chinese customs office.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/13/chinas-coal-imports-fall-nearly-half-in-12-months-as-anti-pollution-drive-bites


In China’s Inner Mongolia, mining spells misery for traditional herders.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-chinas-inner-mongolia-mining-spells-misery-for-traditional-herders/2015/04/07/16b3a252-d643-11e4-bf0b-f648b95a6488_story.html
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Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #199 on: April 14, 2015, 05:48:15 PM »