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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #250 on: November 07, 2015, 09:13:58 PM »
Kind of sours the "historic" Repeatedly-Verify-Reduced-Emissions agreement China and France just made.

China and France say Paris climate pact should have five-year reviews
Quote
French president François Hollande claimed China and France had taken an “historic” step towards tackling climate change on Monday after the two countries agreed any deal reached in Paris next month should include checks on whether signatories are keeping their commitments to reduce emissions.

In a joint statement released weeks before the United Nations Climate Change Conference, China and France said such progress should be reviewed every five years in order to “reinforce mutual confidence and promote efficient implementation”.

“The Paris agreement must send out a clear signal for the world to transition to green and low-carbon, climate-resilient and sustainable development,” the two countries said, also calling for an “ambitious and legally binding” deal in Paris.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/02/china-and-france-say-paris-climate-pact-should-have-5-year-reviews
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #251 on: November 09, 2015, 04:48:02 PM »
The linked Reuters article discusses just how difficult it is to accurately measure China's GHG emissions:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/08/us-china-climatechange-insight-idUSKCN0SX0WS20151108#DgIShJdBq84pRK27.97
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #252 on: November 11, 2015, 11:54:15 PM »
The linked article raises questions about China's true commitment to renewable energy vs coal fired power plants:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/12/world/asia/china-coal-power-energy-policy.html?_r=0


Extract: "In the first nine months of this year, state-owned companies received preliminary or full approval to build the 155 coal power plants that have a total capacity of 123 gigawatts, the report said. That capacity is equal to 15 percent of China’s coal-fired power capacity at the end of 2014.
The construction boom — with capital costs estimated by Greenpeace at $74 billion — is a clear sign that China remains entrenched in investment-driven growth, despite promises by leaders to transform the economic model to one based on consumer spending.
It also raises questions about whether China is weaning itself off coal as quickly as it can and whether officials are sufficiently supporting nonfossil fuel sources over coal, which is championed by some state-owned enterprises. China is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and the main driver of climate change, and has some of the worst air pollution.


Despite the construction boom, Mr. Myllyvirta and some scholars say there is little danger that China’s coal consumption will rise significantly, since a slower economy and flattening coal use appear to be the new norm. President Xi Jinping said China was aiming for 6.5 percent economic growth from 2016 to 2020. The construction boom means that China is not investing in alternative fuel sources as quickly as it could, critics say, and coal use may stay at or near the current high level for years.
 “You’re wasting a massive amount of capital that could be spent on renewable energy to generate green power that is needed,” Mr. Myllyvirta said. “And there’s a longer-term question of whether you will keep investing in renewables when you have all these coal plants lying around.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #253 on: November 12, 2015, 05:40:00 PM »
The linked article indicates just how challenging China's air pollution problem is:

http://www.globalpost.com/article/6685724/2015/11/11/these-photos-will-turn-heat-china-paris-climate-change-talks
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #254 on: November 14, 2015, 02:07:58 AM »
New photos of China’s awful air quality make us nervous about coal plant plans
Quote
China isn’t exactly known for its pristine air quality, but levels of pollution are now the highest ever recorded — up to 50 times the maximum for safe exposure, according to the World Health Organization.
http://grist.org/climate-energy/new-photos-of-chinas-awful-air-quality-make-us-nervous-about-coal-plant-plans/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #255 on: November 26, 2015, 12:36:21 AM »
Per the linked article, most Chinese do not see climate change as a significant problem.

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/11/24/456777290/chinas-greenhouse-gases-dont-seem-to-trouble-most-of-its-citizens

Extract: "Most Chinese, though, don't seem to see climate change as a current threat."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #256 on: November 29, 2015, 02:00:44 PM »
Tianjin will get a fleet of 1,000 EVs for a new car-sharing program
Quote
Kandi announced a deal with Pang Da to bring a fleet of 1,000 electric vehicles to Tianjin for a new car-sharing program – one of the biggest of its kind. The program will use Kandi’s Smart-looking K10 EV with 93 miles (150 km) of range on a single charge. All the cars should be delivered by the end of the year.
http://electrek.co/2015/11/27/tianjin-will-get-a-fleet-of-1000-evs-for-a-new-car-sharing-program/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #257 on: November 30, 2015, 02:54:20 PM »
Chinese Report on Climate Change Depicts Somber Scenarios
Quote
“There is an unavoidable trend for all countries to participate in emissions cuts, and for the major developing countries to shoulder larger emissions-reduction responsibilities,” the report said. “China must fully prepare for this.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/world/asia/chinese-report-on-climate-change-depicts-somber-scenarios.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #258 on: December 01, 2015, 03:11:31 AM »
As Paris Climate Talks Kick Off, Beijing Issues Its Highest Smog Alert Of The Year
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/30/3726445/beijing-new-delhi-smog/
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Laurent

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #259 on: December 01, 2015, 11:43:50 AM »
Yep sure there is something going on...
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-253.58,32.11,269

Even the fires in Indonesia or in Amazonia do not do that... What the hell are they doing ? Is it coal ? only coal ?

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #260 on: December 01, 2015, 01:44:25 PM »
For better or worse, China's manufacturing is on the decline:

China's Manufacturing PMI Weakens to Lowest in Three Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/china-official-manufacturing-pmi-gauge-deteriorates-in-november
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #261 on: December 01, 2015, 02:04:59 PM »
Heavy Smog Forces Students Home as Pollution Hits Beijing
Quote
Air pollution hanging over city is heaviest this year
PM2.5 readings near Tiananmen Square above hazard levels
...
The round of air pollution that began last week is the heaviest of 2015, the Beijing environmental protection bureau said on its official microblog Tuesday. The blanket of pollution has fallen over Beijing just as President Xi Jinping was in Paris on Monday for United Nations-led talks on a deal to fight climate change.

Public anger over air pollution has been a driving force in pushing China to back a possible global climate agreement in Paris. U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday joined China’s Xi in urging 195 nations to push for the first truly worldwide deal to curb greenhouse gases.

Near Tiananmen Square in the heart of Beijing, concentrations of PM2.5 -- the fine particulates that pose the greatest risk to human health -- stood at 666 micrograms per cubic meter as of noon, according to the local environmental monitoring center. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says a PM2.5 reading of 500 micrograms per cubic meter is at the upper end of its hazardous category.
...
While the orange alert is in force, the city will ask some factories to suspend or limit production and for construction sites to stop transporting materials and waste, the bureau said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/heavy-smog-forces-students-home-as-pollution-enshrouds-beijing
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #262 on: December 01, 2015, 02:15:45 PM »
Wanna bet Tesla had China's air pollution top-of-mind when they developed the new Model X's "Bioweapon Defense Mode" air filtration system?

http://www.ibtimes.com/elon-musk-says-tesla-model-x-will-protect-you-bioweapons-2120218

Photos, video:
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-x-has-bioweapon-defense-2015-9
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #263 on: December 01, 2015, 04:44:39 PM »
More, unbelievable, photos.

Stunning Beijing Photos Show City Darkened by Smog at Midday
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/01/beijing_smog_photos_pollution_darkens_sky.html


BBC video posted a few hours ago.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34961144
« Last Edit: December 01, 2015, 04:56:14 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #264 on: December 05, 2015, 01:42:27 AM »
Joe Romm:  New Charts Show The Downward Spiral Of Chinese Coal Use
Quote
Coal use in China declined in 2014, the first drop this century. And another new study, from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), reports more than a 5 percent year-on-year decline in coal use as of September.

The IEEFA study concludes, “China’s coal production and consumption looks to have peaked in 2013.” It’s now a widely-held view in the Beijing climate community that China will peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2025.

Yes, the New York Times reported last month about China’s “underreported” coal consumption. But as Climate Progress explained at the time, this isn’t news to energy experts and climate negotiators. One leading expert who had reported on all this back in February told Climate Progress, “The information in relation to this particular issue has already been known for at least a year and a half.”

What’s news is that a combination of new policies from Beijing has reversed a quarter-century of coal-based industrial growth driven by concerns over both urban air pollution and climate change. What’s news is China’s policies are driving an explosion in carbon-free power:
...
Significantly, China is still bringing online new coal capacity. Hart notes, “In 2014, China took hundreds of existing coal plants offline but also added around 39 gigawatts of new coal capacity.” Some of this is new, more efficient plants replacing older, less efficiency capacity. “Some local officials are overbuilding simply because they have the capital to do so, and that is creating a massive capacity bubble in China, driving down plant-utilization rates, as well as the generation of profits nationwide,” explains Hart. “The average utilization rate for China’s thermal-power generations was 54 percent in 2014 — the lowest rate since China first began its reform and opening process in the late 1970s.”

A November report from Greenpeace came to a similar conclusion: “Capacity utilization of the plants has been plummeting. China is now adding one idle coal-fired power plant per week.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/04/3727779/downward-spiral-chinese-coal/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #265 on: December 07, 2015, 03:21:26 PM »
December 7:  Beijing Issues 1st Smog Red Alert, Orders Half of Cars Off Roads
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/beijing-issues-1st-smog-red-alert-orders-half-cars-roads-n475351
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #266 on: December 09, 2015, 02:39:27 PM »
China's slowing economy is encouraging its leaders to leverage move influence in Africa by increasing its economic aid to the continent.  Soon, Africa's middle-class consumption will be ramping up just as India is doing today:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/08/africa/chinese-economy-africa-trade-relationship/

Extract: "China's economic influence across Africa is as controversial as it is irrefutable. On Friday 4 December, president Xi Jinping announced a three-year plan to boast cooperation with the African continent. The $60bn package includes 10 major projects that extend from poverty reduction to trade facilitation.
It is investments of this size that has enabled China to become, in 2013, sub-Saharan Africa's largest export and development partner in 2013. But its engagement has not been free from criticism, with international and African voices alike citing instances of exploitation, environmental damage and a disproportionate focus on extractive activities. The row over the Chinese-owned Collum Coal Mining Industries in Zambia being a case in point."
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mati

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #267 on: December 20, 2015, 02:54:24 AM »
and so it goes

Sleepy

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #268 on: December 20, 2015, 04:52:11 AM »
It's better than coal.
But it's also like treating a really bad flu with a bottle of whiskey. Great now, worse later.

Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #269 on: December 29, 2015, 04:41:13 PM »
Microsoft, IBM Eye Big Business Opportunity in China's Air Pollution
Quote
Air pollution in China could be big business.

Two of the world's largest technology firms, IBM and Microsoft, are vying to tap the nascent, fast-growing market for forecasting air quality in the world's top carbon emitters.

Bouts of acrid smog enveloping Beijing prompted authorities in the Chinese capital to declare two unprecedented "red alerts" this month — a warning to the city's 22 million inhabitants that heavy pollution is expected for more than three days. Such alerts rely on advances in pollution forecasting, increasingly important for Communist Party leaders as they seek improvements in monitoring and managing the country's notorious smog in response to growing public awareness.
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/microsoft-ibm-eye-big-business-opportunity-china-s-air-pollution-n487001
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #270 on: January 09, 2016, 03:43:43 PM »
China feels that as in the next ten years it must urbanize another 300 million people, it has no choice but to grow, even if it means making bad economic decisions:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/08/the-country-that-tricked-the-world/

China’s stock market took a breather Friday after plunging this week, pulling global markets down with it. But the financial turbulence rocking China has brought to the surface a deeper fear: That its economy is sinking, and that its downfall will derail the still-fragile economic recovery going on in other parts of the world.
What makes those fears worse is that few people have a good understanding of how well China’s economy is really doing. The country’s official growth figures paint a rosy picture that any country would aspire to: In the third quarter, China said its economy expanded 6.9 percent from the previous year, far above U.S. growth of 2 percent.
But how much should we believe those figures?
“Not a lot,” says Mark Williams, the chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, a research consultancy based in London.
“They are absolute make-believe,” says Leland Miller, the president of China Beige Book International, which compiles private surveys on the Chinese economy.
China’s economy has been gradually slowing from the double-digit rates it recorded in past decades, due to a variety of factors, some of which are the inevitable result of many years of fast growth, and some of which are not. But experts widely disagree on exactly how much the economy has slowed. While some analysts estimate the growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) at as little as 1 or 2 percent, other estimates are higher, even if not as high as the country's official read.

So the setting of a relatively high target of 6.5 percent growth for the next five years – a time in which economic forces are likely to continue to drag on China’s economy – suggests that we could see a lot more fiddled growth figures to come.
“I think that the only way that China will be able to hit its targets over the next five years would be in the short term to pursue some very undesirable stimulus policies, which would only create bigger problems down the road, or by faking the numbers,” says Williams."
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JimD

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #271 on: January 12, 2016, 05:43:36 PM »
Huge interventions in the Chinese markets and currency.

Quote
China resorts to 'nuclear strength' weapons to defend the yuan
Despite fighting words from the central bank and Communist party leaders, banks are calling the currency lower, pulling oil and stocks down further.

The Chinese authorities have resorted to “nuclear strength” weapons to deter an attack on the yuan by short sellers and convince sceptical investors that they are in control of the country’s spluttering financial system.

China’s central bank fixed the currency firmer again on Tuesday but traders were not persuaded and the currency slipped in early trade despite what dealers called aggressive intervention to support the currency.

The gap between the mainland yuan and its offshore counterpart had grown in recent days but suspected intervention by China’s state-owned banks brought them almost into line on Tuesday.

The action sent the rate at which banks charge each other to borrow yuan in Hong Kong to a record high of 67% on Tuesday.


http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/chinese-efforts-to-talk-up-yuan-fail-to-stop-slide-in-oil-and-stock-prices
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #272 on: January 14, 2016, 08:06:25 PM »
The linked LA Times article indicates that while China's economy has its share of problems, there is very little chance of an economic collapse.  This indicates that the global economy will most likely continue to impose relatively high rates of radiative forcing on the Earth for some years to come:

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-china-global-jitters-20160114-story.html

Extract: “Our picture of China as a big export machine just isn’t accurate,” said Barry Bosworth, an Asia economic expert at the Brookings Institution. “What matters is that China is fundamentally a domestically based economy. It’s a great big domestic economy,” he added. “And a threat of a collapse is very small. It’s just got too much wealth behind it.”
That’s not to say that China doesn’t have serious economic risks and challenges, among them huge debts from excessive investments in property, an over-supply of steel and other goods, inefficient state-owned firms and a rapid outflow of capital from China.
But even if those fault lines open, Beijing has the resources and will to maintain satisfactory economic growth, which is critical for its political legitimacy. With foreign reserves of roughly $3 trillion, if worse comes to worst, Chinese officials can be expected to throw money at the problem, as Beijing has repeatedly done by bailing out debt-laden banks and other vulnerable sectors of the economy."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #273 on: January 18, 2016, 01:23:18 PM »
Chinese Shipyards See New Orders Fall by Almost Half in 2015
Quote
New orders received by Chinese shipbuilders fell by nearly half last year from 2014, suggesting more consolidation is in order as the country’s appetite for raw materials wanes and shipping rates languish at multiyear lows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/chinese-shipyards-see-new-orders-fall-by-almost-half-in-2015
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AbruptSLR

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #274 on: January 19, 2016, 04:36:05 PM »
As the Chinese economy transforms into a consumer society, their oil consumption will keep increasing (more cars, more planes, etc.) as indicated by their all time high oil consumption in 2015:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0UX02J

Extract: "Oil prices rose on Tuesday as data showed Chinese oil demand probably hit a record high in 2015..."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #275 on: January 20, 2016, 06:26:42 PM »
China's 11,000 mines are producing twice as much coal as the country needs.

Quote
BEIJING, Jan 18 (Reuters) - China's decision to stop approving new coal mines for three years has been applauded by green groups, but the move is likely to make barely a dent on the world's biggest coal industry given its vast existing production capacity.

Some estimates suggest China's surplus capacity could be as high as 2 billion tonnes of coal a year - more than 50 percent of 2015 output - in a country with nearly 11,000 mines.

Beijing wants to cut the share of coal in its energy mix to contain pollution and meet climate change goals, while it is also trying to manage the fortunes of a struggling sector that employs nearly 6 million people.

And so far efforts to rein in production appear to have had limited market impact with Chinese coal prices losing a third last year.
http://news.trust.org/item/20160118101012-4kvql/
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #276 on: January 20, 2016, 06:36:22 PM »
China's coal-burning in significant decline, figures show
Quote
Coal-burning in China is in significant decline, according to official figures released on Tuesday, signalling a major turnaround for the world’s biggest polluter.

The new data is good news for the fight against climate change but bad for the struggling global coal industry.

China saw a huge increase in coal-burning for power and industry in the last two decades but has suffered serious air pollution as a result. However in recent years there has been a surge in low-carbon energy and a slowdown in the economy - GDP growth fell in 2015 to its lowest in 25 years - as China moves away from manufacturing.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/19/chinas-coal-burning-in-significant-decline-figures-show
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #277 on: January 20, 2016, 09:11:05 PM »
China Emissions From Power Likely Fell 2% in 2015 as Coal Curbed
Quote
China’s emissions of climate-warming carbon dioxide produced as a result of using coal for electricity generation probably fell 2 percent in 2015 as a push by the world’s most populous nation to tackle climate change resulted in less of the fuel being burned.

That equates to 144.9 million metric tons of carbon emissions that didn’t enter the atmosphere because of the retreat from coal, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysis of data from the China Electricity Council and the National Energy Administration.

Carbon emissions “declined faster than expected” in 2015, said Sophie Lu, a Beijing-based analyst at BNEF. The reduction means ‘China’s work in cutting emissions has taken effect.”

China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, has pledged to cap its emissions around 2030. The nation is seeking to cut coal’s share of its energy consumption, while boosting renewable energy.

Coal power generation fell 2.8 percent in 2015 from the previous year, indicating a 77 million metric-ton reduction in how much of the fossil fuel was used, according to the BNEF analysis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/china-emissions-from-power-likely-fell-2-in-2015-as-coal-curbed
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #278 on: January 21, 2016, 05:25:23 PM »
While many people focus on the transition of the Chinese economy from being the "Factory of the World" to a service based economy; China is quietly financing economic development throughout the remaining developing world including the Middle East (see below), which will effective shift Chinese emissions to other countries (much as the Developed World has already done):

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/01/21/world/middleeast/ap-ml-egypt-china.html?_r=0

Extract: "China has signed agreements to invest nearly $18 billion in Egypt, whose economy is yet to recover from years of political turmoil.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi welcomed the much-needed future deals on Thursday, saying he prides himself on his friendship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Chinese agreements are aimed at developing the Suez Canal as well as the Egypt's infrastructure, transportation and electricity sector, with the investments staggered over several years.
President Xi's three-day visit to Egypt comes as part of a Middle East tour that will include a stop in Iran.
Earlier this week, Xi visited Saudi Arabia, where he signed 14 memoranda of understanding to enhance cooperation, research, investment and development in the fields of trade, satellite navigation technology, renewable energy and oil."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #279 on: January 24, 2016, 12:46:06 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #280 on: January 26, 2016, 10:09:10 PM »
Quote
"Temporary" Capital Controls Coming to China?

China hemorrhaged $663 billion of its reserves since June 2014 in a misguided attempt to prop up the yaun...

What caused this mess?

The answer is a ridiculous growth targets. To hit 7% growth targets for years on end, China had to waste a lot of money on projects, many of which are now worthless.

While the boom lasted, China, like Japan before it, was considered an "economic miracle".

Unlike the above writers, I suggest China do what it should have done a decade ago: float the yuan and stop micro-managing the economy.

Sure there will be a lot of short term pain. But short term pain is a lot better than three lost decades as Japan is experiencing

Note those 'worthless' projects are what drove the bubble in commodities and the global economy for years.  Thus the drop in demand is going to last a long time and crush many of those commodity suppliers.


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/temporary-capital-controls-coming-to.html
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #281 on: January 29, 2016, 01:31:24 AM »
China Trumpets Its Service Economy
It accounts for half of GDP. The pay isn’t great.
Quote
China’s service sector now employs more than 300 million people, the largest share of the country’s 775 million workers. The fastest growth has been in low-end jobs in retail, restaurants, hotels, and real estate. Over the last five years, education and government jobs, most of which are filled by college graduates, have fallen from a little less than half of total service employment to a third or so.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/china-trumpets-its-service-economy
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #282 on: January 30, 2016, 03:30:32 PM »
Excellent review of where China sits today and the implications for all of us tomorrow. It ain't pretty.

https://www.greenleft.org.au/node/60926
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #283 on: January 30, 2016, 06:56:37 PM »
Excellent review of where China sits today and the implications for all of us tomorrow. It ain't pretty.

https://www.greenleft.org.au/node/60926

A single simple quote from the linked article says it all.

"Hedge fund manager George Soros was merely stating the obvious when he warned that the slowdown in China meant that the global economy was back once again to the crisis of 2008 — the GFC has never gone away."

This has been my point all along. Global capitalism has a structural problem. There is simply not enough demand to prop up growth any longer. We have been tiptoeing along the edge of the cliff for a decade. We will eventually fall into the yawning abyss. Efforts to stimulate growth like zero percent interest rates are laughable.

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #284 on: February 03, 2016, 02:04:54 AM »
China Blows Past the U.S. in Wind Power
Reducing air pollution is a bigger incentive than lowering carbon emissions
Quote
China solidified its standing as the world’s wind energy behemoth in 2015, adding almost as much wind power capacity in one year as the total installed capacity of the three largest U.S. wind-producing states: Texas, Iowa and California.

New data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance show China installed just under 29 gigawatts of new wind energy capacity in 2015, surpassing its previous record of roughly 21 GW set in 2014. The country also accounted for more than 46 percent of all wind power installed globally for the year, eclipsing the next largest market, the United States, which added 8.6 GW (ClimateWire, Jan. 28).

Amy Grace, head of wind insight at BNEF, said the Chinese growth figure was the biggest surprise of 2015 and roughly 4 GW higher than analysts predicted. After China and the United States, the world’s largest markets for new wind power in 2015 were Germany, India and Brazil, with gross installs of 3.7, 2.6 and 2.6 GW, respectively.
...
While investment in China’s power grid has risen substantially, the country still has some of the world’s highest curtailment rates for renewable energy, meaning thousands of turbines are taken offline, even under optimum wind conditions, because grid operators lack the knowledge and skills to integrate the clean energy with other sources, including baseload power from coal plants.

Because of those limitations, Lewis said the United States remains a world leader in wind energy because capacity factors and utilization rates are much higher on average for U.S. wind turbines than for Chinese turbines.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-blows-past-the-u-s-in-wind-power/
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #285 on: February 12, 2016, 07:14:20 PM »
The linked article confirms that as China slows its industrial development, it is concurrently accelerating its finance of development projects in Latin America; which will make China's carbon footprint look better, but will make Latin America's carbon footprint look worse:

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2016/02/12/china-doubles-bets-on-ailing-latin-american-economies/

Extract: "As Western-backed development banks and the private sector are on the retreat from Latin America, China’s development banks are coming to the rescue, at least for now.

China’s two development banks, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, provided upwards of $29bn to Latin American governments in 2015, according to new estimates published by Boston University’s Global Economic Governance Initiative and the Washington-based think tank The Inter-American Dialogue.

A three-fold increase from 2014, China’s 2015 finance to Latin America was more than the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the Development Bank of Latin America combined."
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #286 on: February 13, 2016, 09:08:17 AM »
The linked article indicates that China is currently experiencing 1.6 million premature deaths a year due to air pollution, mostly due to particle emissions from coal burning:

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35568249

Extract: "More than 5.5 million people worldwide are dying prematurely every year as a result of air pollution, according to new research.

In China, there are said to be about 1.6 million deaths a year; in India, it is roughly 1.3 million. This data is from 2013, the most recent year for which it is available.
The key sources of pollution concern are slightly different in each nation, however.
In China, the dominant factor is particle emissions from coal burning.
The project calculates this source alone is responsible for more than 360,000 deaths every year.
And even though China has targets to restrict coal combustion and emissions in the future, it may struggle to bring down the number of deaths because it is acquiring an aging population and these citizens are naturally more susceptible to the illnesses associated with poor air quality.
"So, we think more aggressive policies are urgently needed to reduce the emissions from coal combustion and other sectors," stated project researcher Qiao Ma, a PhD student at Tsinghua University in Beijing."
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #287 on: February 23, 2016, 02:49:06 AM »
China to close more than 1,000 coal mines in 2016: energy bureau
Quote
BEIJING (Reuters) - China will aim to close more than 1,000 coal mines over this year, with a total production capacity of 60 million tonnes, as part of its plans to tackle a price-sapping supply glut in the sector, the country's energy regulator said.

China is the world's top coal consumer but demand has been on the wane as economic growth slows and the country shifts away from fossil fuels in order to curb pollution.

In a notice posted on its website on Monday, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said the closures would form part of the plan released earlier this month to shut as much as 500 million tonnes of surplus production capacity within the next three to five years. (www.nea.gov.cn)

China has a total of 10,760 mines, and 5,600 of them will eventually be required to close under a policy banning those with an annual output capacity of less than 90,000 tonnes, the China National Coal Association has estimated.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0VV0U5
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Sigmetnow

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #288 on: February 29, 2016, 04:42:03 PM »
China's coal consumption fell last year -- if you believe China government data.
Quote
China's coal consumption fell for the second year in a row, government data showed on Monday, as the world's biggest polluter attempts to tackle chronic pollution that accompanied economic growth.

Coal use fell 3.7 percent last year compared to 2014 levels, according to a report from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The drop follows a 2.9 percent decrease in 2014.
http://news.yahoo.com/china-coal-consumption-drops-again-govt-063147796.html
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #289 on: February 29, 2016, 04:52:45 PM »
China's coal consumption fell last year -- if you believe China government data.
Quote
China's coal consumption fell for the second year in a row, government data showed on Monday, as the world's biggest polluter attempts to tackle chronic pollution that accompanied economic growth.

Coal use fell 3.7 percent last year compared to 2014 levels, according to a report from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The drop follows a 2.9 percent decrease in 2014.
http://news.yahoo.com/china-coal-consumption-drops-again-govt-063147796.html

Unfortunately, China is substituting much of this coal with methane that is resulting in a net increase in radiative forcing over a 10-year period.
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #290 on: February 29, 2016, 04:53:06 PM »
China Redoubles Its War On Coal
By Joe Romm
Quote
Until recently, Beijing’s efforts to slash coal use had been more successful than their efforts to slow the construction of new power plants. Indeed, while thermal power generation from coal fell in 2015, some 23 gigawatts of thermal power plants — mostly coal — were brought online in the first half of the year alone. An Australia business journal explained what happened next:
"As a result, capacity utilization at thermal power plants fell further from the all-time low reached last year, now dropping just below 50%."

China is using the equivalent of only half its coal plants. And the utilization rate will continue to drop as China enacts the policies President Xi Jinping announced in the United States last September. Besides embracing a cap-and-trade system, which will put further downward pressure on coal, China announced it will use what is called “green dispatch” system for its electric grid.

Green dispatch means China will use all of its low- or zero-carbon sources like wind before using dirtier sources like coal. China had been forcing wind plants “to shut down at times to let coal power plants meet their generation quotas,” as the American Wind Energy Association has explained. As a result, some “17 percent of potential wind generation was lost due to curtailment in 2012, and this policy change should significantly reduce that figure going forward.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/29/3753342/china-war-coal/
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #291 on: March 01, 2016, 05:42:55 PM »
China plans to cut 1.8 million coal and steel jobs
Quote
China's workers are starting to feel the pain of the global commodities bust.

The Chinese government said Monday it was planning to shed 1.8 million coal and steel jobs in an effort to reduce excess capacity.

Some 1.3 million jobs will be lost in the coal sector, and 500,000 in the steel industry.
"Although this is a very difficult task, in every respect, it is something that we must actively work to accomplish," said Yin Weimin, China's top human resources and social security official. Yin did not say when the jobs would go.

The cuts represent about 20% and 11% of China's coal and steel jobs, respectively, according to IHS Insight.

China's slowdown has triggered a rout in global commodities. For years, China pumped up its economy by building infrastructure and factories, fueling huge demand for coal and steel.

But the world's second-largest economy is now posting its weakest growth in 25 years, prompting those industries to cut back on investment and jobs around the globe. Now, the layoffs are also hitting China.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/29/news/economy/china-steel-coal-jobs/index.html
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #292 on: March 01, 2016, 06:24:12 PM »
China plans to cut 1.8 million coal and steel jobs

The linked (open access) reference points to new development in aerosol-cloud-interaction, ACI, modeling in China, indicating that in 2013 ACI reduced regional Chinese monthly temperatures by 0.3C; which implies that as China decreases its use of coal this negative radiative forcing will be reduced:


Zhou, C., Zhang, X., Gong, S., Wang, Y., and Xue, M.: Improving aerosol interaction with clouds and precipitation in a regional chemical weather modeling system, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 145-160, doi:10.5194/acp-16-145-2016, 2016.


http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/145/2016/

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/145/2016/acp-16-145-2016.pdf

Abstract: "A comprehensive aerosol–cloud–precipitation interaction (ACI) scheme has been developed under a China Meteorological Administration (CMA) chemical weather modeling system, GRAPES/CUACE (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System, CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment). Calculated by a sectional aerosol activation scheme based on the information of size and mass from CUACE and the thermal-dynamic and humid states from the weather model GRAPES at each time step, the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are interactively fed online into a two-moment cloud scheme (WRF Double-Moment 6-class scheme – WDM6) and a convective parameterization to drive cloud physics and precipitation formation processes. The modeling system has been applied to study the ACI for January 2013 when several persistent haze-fog events and eight precipitation events occurred.

The results show that aerosols that interact with the WDM6 in GRAPES/CUACE obviously increase the total cloud water, liquid water content, and cloud droplet number concentrations, while decreasing the mean diameters of cloud droplets with varying magnitudes of the changes in each case and region. These interactive microphysical properties of clouds improve the calculation of their collection growth rates in some regions and hence the precipitation rate and distributions in the model, showing 24 to 48 % enhancements of threat score for 6 h precipitation in almost all regions. The aerosols that interact with the WDM6 also reduce the regional mean bias of temperature by 3 °C during certain precipitation events, but the monthly means bias is only reduced by about 0.3 °C."
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #293 on: March 01, 2016, 07:49:23 PM »
"Green dispatch" in China is important. When combined with the merit order effect arising from wind and solar buildout (see Jerome's excellent series at eurotrib) this will grease the skids for electricity from coal.

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #294 on: March 02, 2016, 06:23:55 AM »
China is serious.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-layoffs-exclusive-idUSKCN0W33DS

500 million tonnes of coal production gone in the next three to five years

by comparison, world coal production is around 8000 million, china roughly half that
that takes a bite.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/china-expects-1-8-million-coal-steel-layoffs-on-capacity-cuts

small steps.


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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #295 on: March 02, 2016, 09:39:53 PM »
Yes, there's been a lot of green-sounding verbiage spilling from official Chinese mouthpieces.

Greenpeace, for one, isn't buying it: http://newsdaily.com/2016/03/greenpeace-says-china-increasing-coal-fired-capacity/

Greenpeace says China increasing coal-fired capacity

Quote
Greenpeace East Asia said on Wednesday that China had a total of 210 coal power projects in the pipeline”for environmental assessment permitting at the end of 2015, despite overcapacity in the industry and pollution concerns.

Of those, 95 projects received final regulatory permits that would allow construction to begin, Greenpeace said in a report. Construction began on at least 66 coal power projects with a combined capacity of 73 gigawatts (GW), Greenpeace added, some of which had received approval in a previous year.

There is a very rapid and accelerating net increase in coal-fired generating capacity,” Lauri Myllyvirta, the group’s senior global campaigner on coal, told Reuters...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #296 on: March 02, 2016, 10:36:26 PM »
Due to internal politics, China needs to reduce its coal burning (to improve air pollution); however, the first attached image of the Copernicus Methane emission forecast map from March 1 to 6 2016, shows that China is a major emitter of methane (from open coal mines that vent whether they are mined or not, from rice fields, from leaks from natural gas usage, and from fires); which can have a Global Warming Potential over 10-years that is 130 times that of CO2.  Thus it is possible that China's efforts to clean-up its air could result in a spike in global warming both due to a spike in methane emissions and due to a reduction in aerosol related negative radiative forcing.

Edit: I note that the relatively high methane emissions in the Congo and Indonesia are probably associated with fires.

Edit2: Per the second attached image from the following websites, the radiative footprint of both China and India is much more dominated by methane vs carbon dioxide as compared to developed countries

http://ehsdiv.sph.berkeley.edu/krsmith/publications/2015/Desai%20_climate_debt_metric.pdf

&
https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/25/halting-climate-change-means-more-than-cutting-carbon/
 
« Last Edit: March 02, 2016, 11:03:25 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #297 on: March 08, 2016, 04:22:49 PM »
China Renewable Energy Growth Soars & Coal Use Declines
Quote
China’s solar and wind energy capacity increased by 74% and 34%, respectively, in 2015, while coal consumption dropped by 3.7%.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics released figures for 2015 this week, and officials believe that the country’s current growth path will allow them to soon surpass their carbon emissions targets. Specifically, China broke two new records in 2015, installing a record 32.5% of wind in 2015, and a record 18.3 GW of solar in 2015 — both of which were higher than initial estimates.

“The latest figures confirm China’s record-breaking shift toward renewable power and away from coal,” said Tim Buckley, Director of Energy Finance Studies at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). “Solar and wind continue to be the big winners, as illustrated by a 73.7% increase in grid-connected solar generation capacity. Declining consumption coupled with an over-abundance of domestic supply, meaning coal imports into China were particularly badly hit, dropping 30.4% yoy.

Timothy Buckley also makes note of just how fast global electricity markets are transforming. Despite China’s confirmed figures being largely in line with initial estimates, they nevertheless highlight that global electricity markets “are transforming a great deal faster than anyone actually expected.”

The transformation is nothing without the corresponding decrease in fossil fuels, and China seems to be making strong headway towards its goals to decrease its coal usage and import. 2015 saw coal consumption decline 3.7%, year-over-year, and net coal imports dropped a much more significant 30.4% year-over-year, down to 198.7 million tonnes. This trend has already been seen to continue into 2016, with January’s net coal imports dropping by 11.6% year-over-year.

“IEEFA forecasts that China will install an additional 22 GW of wind, 16GW of new hydro, another 6GW of nuclear, and 18GW of solar (60% utility scale, 40% distributed rooftop solar) in 2016,” explained Buckley. “With electricity demand forecast to grow by 3.0-3.5% yoy in 2016, this 62GW of additional zero carbon electricity capacity will be more than sufficient to meet total electricity demand growth, such that coal consumption is forecast to fall again in 2016.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/06/china-renewable-growth-soars-fossil-fuel-use-declines/
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #298 on: March 08, 2016, 04:38:43 PM »
Is China under-promising and over-delivering, and if so why does the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO₂ concentration keep increasing on a BAU pathway?

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0307/China-denies-claims-that-the-nation-s-emissions-peaked-in-2014

Extract: "China greenhouse gas emissions may have reached their peak in 2014, which means they are now either stable or in decline.
That’s generally good news, except that the country promised in a global warming pact signed in Paris last year, that it would cut emission over the next 15 years so that they would peak around 2030 and then start to decline. The fact that the country peaked much earlier suggests to climate advocates that the country may have set targets that are too easy to meet.
“China’s international commitment to peak emissions ‘around 2030’ should be seen as a highly conservative upper limit from a government that prefers to under-promise and over-deliver,” write economists Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern from the London School of Economics and Political Science in a paper released Monday."
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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #299 on: March 09, 2016, 06:41:44 PM »
The linked article shows that the coal to synthetic natural gas, SNG, production that China is expanding its use of, produces more life-cycle GHG than either burning natural gas or coal directly to produce electricity:

Sheng Li & Lin Gao (2016), "Greenhouse gas emissions from synthetic natural gas production", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 6, Pages: 220–221, doi:10.1038/nclimate2887


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n3/full/nclimate2887.html

Partial Abstract: "China is developing technology to process coal into synthetic natural gas (SNG). This process would both attain energy security and implement clean coal technology. Yang and Jackson's claim that the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with converting coal to SNG are seven times those associated with conventional…"

See also:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n3/full/nclimate2889.html

Edit: I note that the expanded use of SNG in China will reduce air pollution; which will reduce its associated negative forcing (& associated negative feedback); which will result in accelerated global warming (compared to Chinese electricity production by the direct burning of coal).
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 07:44:18 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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