Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?  (Read 48259 times)

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #50 on: August 15, 2014, 07:33:40 PM »
you realize that he is a plant, probably, trying to disrupt discussion and cast a doubtful light on the quality of the forum's discussions.   

The Anagram "tinfoil" gave it away.  Such an obvious con.
Actually, I think that is his real name and that he is being earnest.

I did a little sleuthing, and F.Tnioli has been posting about the environment in various places for about 4 years.  S/He's not a new phenomena. I don't think s/he was either a troll or that his name is some sort of anagram.

While I think the idea of secret Geoengineering borders on delusional, I agree - I think F.Tnioli is in earnest.

Could people drop the sniping and let this fair comment close the matter?

Should F Tnioli decide to come back, perhaps people might stick to argument and let this matter drop.

Not Jonathan,
I'm certainly not heroic, and unfortunately cannot recall 'deflecting' anyone here. Unless you mean at Neven's blog? F Tnioli is in my opinion merely mistaken, and I recall him/her adding substance to some previous discussions which is why it's a shame s/he has gone. With others here in the past that I've suspected as being denialists I've used an anagram or a sentence with letters removed at the end of a reply to hide what I'm saying, as a marker to say I think this person is a (usually denialist) troll. Useful to be able to prove I knew what their game was from the outset if needed in argument. I've not had to do it here since Ice Cool Kim started posting.

notjonathon

  • New ice
  • Posts: 47
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #51 on: August 16, 2014, 04:01:22 AM »
Chris--
I meant you managed to move the off-topic discussions away from the melting season threads(once by suggestion, if I recall, and once by starting up this thread) to threads of their own, where they can be properly dissected.

I reiterate--of course, HAARP has nothing to do with Arctic geoengineering. I was simply doing a little riff on right-wing conspiracy theories.

I repeat: I do not now and never have believed that HAARP ever had anything to do with secret Arctic geoengineering.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 179
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #52 on: August 16, 2014, 06:29:17 PM »
The engineering skeptic in me says that the first real evidence we'd have for a successful systemic intervention would be the disastrous, unintended consequences.

This to me is the most critical point I've seen yet.  Almost every suggestion, every time we interfere, we fail to take into account the negative consequences of our actions.

For instance the "quick fix" for Ozone.  Just sink a few tankers of iron filings... Cute and the impact to the oceans.  Or that Ozone is actually poisonous to humans and might take time, in that volume, to reach the upper atmosphere where it's needed.

We can be almost certain that when the panic happens and they try the quick fixes, they'll screw up more than they fix...  Something we can ill afford.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 179
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #53 on: August 16, 2014, 06:34:41 PM »
As to what's actually possible i've no clue but if i was going to attempt to alter the situation in the arctic i would try early in the 'melt' to encourage lots of evaporation to get heat out of the ocean, and to limit insolation with fog. Then at the end of the season i would try to clear as much ice cover as possible in fairly short order to open up the ocean to the arctic night, and to get as much as possible of the ensuing evaporation to fall as freezing rain locally, again releasing heat up into the atmosphere.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this is happening already by geoengineering.  It's the result of CO2 release into the atmosphere.

It's what happens next which is the worrying thing....
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #54 on: August 16, 2014, 07:29:50 PM »
That would be measurable surely.  Especially as we pulled all the sulphur we could from the power stations and diesel fuel to avoid acid rain.  Surely we are monitoring that situation.

Any spike like that would register somewhere.

Ironic that the sulphur we had to pull from the atmosphere to save our forests was a strong reflectant.  So to improve our immediate environment, we hasten the destruction of our livable habitat for the next generations.

I can't see that there is anything they could do secretly which would impact the Arctic in this way.  Why would they spend the money when they could get a better result purely by encouraging better land use.  They have said many times that it's not worth making the changes until we "know for sure".  There is no way they'd risk the censure by doing something in secret.

Are we sure the "they" which might do something secretly are the same "they" that won't do anything "until we 'know for sure'"?   ;D

"better land use"?  What specifically does that refer to?

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #55 on: August 16, 2014, 07:42:16 PM »
HAARP cannot be used to change the weather, it's just a radar. There's zero evidence that "chemtrails" contain any dubious chemicals. The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.

"It's just a radar?"  Microwave radar is being used by the U.S. military to heat up latent raindrops over eastern Iraq and thus reduce the amount of rain falling on Iran.  The resulting drought in Iran is well documented:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/world/middleeast/its-great-lake-shriveled-iran-confronts-crisis-of-water-supply.html?_r=0

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #56 on: August 16, 2014, 07:44:56 PM »
... the wise person jettisons the notion on its merits, and doesn't cling to it because they like the way it sounds.

When you put it that way...  It sounds soo much more fun to have the tinfoil hat.  ;)

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #57 on: August 16, 2014, 07:56:01 PM »
Let's put it another way.  It took 200 years of the whole of humanity, working as fast as possible with every machine possible, to diminish Arctic ice volume by about 40%.

But the whole of humanity wasn't really trying to diminish Arctic ice volume.  If we really put our mind to it, we could have done so much better.  Mining ice to keep our food cool?  Mining ice for fresh water?

But...  why would we geoengineer the Arctic?  There are so many other more easily accessible and easier to hide places we could geoengineer that would geoengineer the Arctic as a side effect.  A big cloud of dust in geosynchronous orbit.  How hard would it be to hide a few kilograms of talcum powder on board a TV satellite?  Easier than smuggling cocaine.  And look how easy that is!

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3264
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 541
  • Likes Given: 209
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #58 on: August 16, 2014, 07:57:26 PM »
HAARP cannot be used to change the weather, it's just a radar. There's zero evidence that "chemtrails" contain any dubious chemicals. The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.

"It's just a radar?"  Microwave radar is being used by the U.S. military to heat up latent raindrops over eastern Iraq and thus reduce the amount of rain falling on Iran.  The resulting drought in Iran is well documented:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/world/middleeast/its-great-lake-shriveled-iran-confronts-crisis-of-water-supply.html?_r=0
Now wait a minute.

Microwaves broadcast from  *where*?!

Using power generated *how*?!

There are plenty of natural causes to explain the drought.

The energy necessary to cause an effect like that over a wide area would be enormous ... On the order of terawatts. (This is the key obstacle to any sort of short term direct manipulation of weather - the sheer magnitudes of energy required)

It would require hundreds of KM2 of antenna.

And it would all have had to be assembled in secret, and managed in secret.

I'm afraid your hypothesis has a bit of an obstacle to clear.
This space for Rent.

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #59 on: August 16, 2014, 08:01:35 PM »
American secret services have zero say in the use of non-military space assets of other space powers.
Us 'mericans are the cleverest m*er-f*er's in the world.  You must be a commie if you think there's something we can't do.  Who blew up the Iranian uranium centrifuges in Iran with *software*?  (Hey, those Israeli's working for the CIA are nearly 'merican any way.)

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #60 on: August 16, 2014, 09:45:39 PM »
[I've not had to do it here since ...

That sounds like a challenge!   ;)

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #61 on: August 16, 2014, 09:48:18 PM »
I'm afraid your hypothesis has a bit of an obstacle to clear.

Wait a minute...  I thought it just had to *sound* good.  Maybe we need to start the "Practical Ways to Geoengineer the Arctic" thread...

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #62 on: August 16, 2014, 09:50:06 PM »
I repeat: I do not now and never have believed that HAARP ever had anything to do with secret Arctic geoengineering.

Now if that's not crystal clear evidence of a cover up...

notjonathon

  • New ice
  • Posts: 47
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #63 on: August 17, 2014, 10:14:37 AM »

notjonathon

  • New ice
  • Posts: 47
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #64 on: August 17, 2014, 10:22:45 AM »
Roughly translated:

Summer present festival

Winners of ten kilograms of Iwate Prefecture hitomebore (love at first sight) rice

Suspicious rice M. Cesium
Suspicious rice M. Cesium
Irradiated rice M. Cesium

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #65 on: August 17, 2014, 10:51:16 AM »
HAARP cannot be used to change the weather, it's just a radar. There's zero evidence that "chemtrails" contain any dubious chemicals. The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.

"It's just a radar?"  Microwave radar is being used by the U.S. military to heat up latent raindrops over eastern Iraq and thus reduce the amount of rain falling on Iran.  The resulting drought in Iran is well documented:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/world/middleeast/its-great-lake-shriveled-iran-confronts-crisis-of-water-supply.html?_r=0

Am I about to fall into the trap of misreading humour for genuine intent? Sorry notjonathan...

That article mentions two issues that readily explain the loss of that lake - AGW (the expansion northwards of the downdraft of the Hadley Cells - the futility of trying to irrigate deserts formed by the Hadley Cells (evaporation).

The most effective band to heat up water in the atmosphere would be the 2.4GHz band. But that would make WiFi useage problematic (WiFi shares the same band as microwave ovens). Furthermore, unless it was a rainfall radar, any radar system would steer clear of absortpion bands because of the effect of limiting range.

Finally...

Let's say you have a 10Kw EIRP beam, let's focus it on one single part of the sky, but accept that it's going to be spread. 1) most of the power will be absorbed close to the antenna 2) by the time it gets to the target area, hundreds of km away it will be spread over hundreds of sqkm. Consider a 20km/20km plane, that's 400kmsq, or 400M m^2, say even half of the 10kW makes it to that target plane(it's going to be less than that*), that's 0.0000125W per metre.

Now compare that to the absorbed solar and infra-red radiation one might expect within the subtropical atmosphere.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #66 on: August 18, 2014, 07:10:42 AM »
Chris,

while your experience with RF is high, your research of HAARP is very poor.  Here is the actual scientific data from Stanford.

http://vlf.stanford.edu/research/experiments-haarp-ionospheric-heater

Quote
While most of the radiated ELF wave energy is confined below the ionosphere, some of it leaks out into the magnetosphere where it can be detected by satellites such as DEMETER, and under special conditions, be guided along ducts (irregularities in the plasma density) that follow the Earth's magnetic field lines. While the waves are propagating in these ducts they are amplified by interactions with electrons in the magnetosphere. The amplified wave can then be detected in the opposite hemisphere, at the magnetic conjugate point of HAARP in the southern Pacific Ocean (Gołkowski et al., 2010; Gołkowski et al., 2008; Inan et al., 2004).

and

Quote
This array consists of 15x12 crossed dipole antennas, which together can transmit a total of 3600kW of RF power at frequencies from 2.8 - 10 MHz (HF, high frequency range). This power is partially absorbed by the ionosphere, and though only a tiny fraction of the power it naturally receives from the sun, can still produce subtle changes that can be detected with sensitive instruments.

The VLF group focuses on using HAARP to generate ELF and VLF waves through a process called modulated heating. Such experiments have been conducted since 1999 and include Milikh et al. (1999); Cohen et al. (2008); Rodriguez et al. (1999). HAARP is located in a region where large natural currents, known as the auroral electrojet flow through the ionosphere. By turning the HF array on and off (i.e. modulating the HF power) at ELF frequencies, we can also modulate the conductivity of the ionosphere at those frequencies
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #67 on: August 18, 2014, 08:38:14 AM »
Am I about to fall into the trap of misreading humour for genuine intent?

;-)  Sorry.

nukefix

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #68 on: August 18, 2014, 08:50:46 AM »
Chris,

while your experience with RF is high, your research of HAARP is very poor.  Here is the actual scientific data from Stanford.

http://vlf.stanford.edu/research/experiments-haarp-ionospheric-heater

Quote
While most of the radiated ELF wave energy is confined below the ionosphere, some of it leaks out into the magnetosphere where it can be detected by satellites such as DEMETER, and under special conditions, be guided along ducts (irregularities in the plasma density) that follow the Earth's magnetic field lines. While the waves are propagating in these ducts they are amplified by interactions with electrons in the magnetosphere. The amplified wave can then be detected in the opposite hemisphere, at the magnetic conjugate point of HAARP in the southern Pacific Ocean (Gołkowski et al., 2010; Gołkowski et al., 2008; Inan et al., 2004).

and

Quote
This array consists of 15x12 crossed dipole antennas, which together can transmit a total of 3600kW of RF power at frequencies from 2.8 - 10 MHz (HF, high frequency range). This power is partially absorbed by the ionosphere, and though only a tiny fraction of the power it naturally receives from the sun, can still produce subtle changes that can be detected with sensitive instruments.

The VLF group focuses on using HAARP to generate ELF and VLF waves through a process called modulated heating. Such experiments have been conducted since 1999 and include Milikh et al. (1999); Cohen et al. (2008); Rodriguez et al. (1999). HAARP is located in a region where large natural currents, known as the auroral electrojet flow through the ionosphere. By turning the HF array on and off (i.e. modulating the HF power) at ELF frequencies, we can also modulate the conductivity of the ionosphere at those frequencies
Ok, but what has that got to do with weather? Like the article says the used energy is a tiny fraction of what is received from the Sun.

viddaloo

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #69 on: October 25, 2014, 08:29:50 AM »
Note the very sharp & consistent June to August increase in the deltas for average volume.

Summer offensive on the American side of the Arctic?
[]

viddaloo

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #70 on: October 25, 2014, 04:51:08 PM »
Let me just add that this is my first time of reading this particular thread, and, no, I don't think the bad/good guys are geoing the Arctic.

I think a (allegedly) record–cold June better explains slow melt, together with record wildfires in the boreal Arctic.

But for the sake of the argument and in the spirit of 'interesting discussions': F.T made a couple good points (on Russia etc). A low–tech way of geoing the Arctic could be to set fires and/or take extra long to put them out (assuming the net effect of the fires would be healthy for the ice, of which I'm not at all sure). This could be done by Americans, Russians and Canadians in cooperation. (But again, the odds are the fires got that big and many because of the changing climate.)

Manipulated satellite data: Anything is possible. If the bottleneck is electricity for manipulation in space, that part could be done lightning–fast on the ground and then resent to the sat. People downloading 'live data' would never notice the difference (timestamps *can* be forged, LOL).

Other assumptions about the very strict limits of NATO secret services are best uncommented  8)
[]

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #71 on: December 20, 2014, 02:56:49 AM »
Small scale experiments 'maybe' going on, but as a whole trying to keep that a secret is a no.
As an example of how hard it is to do even in pre internet times. I remember an article in the late 50's early 60's talking about a high school kid failing physics given an project that if he succeeded would give him a passing grade. The paper the teacher gave him was to give enough details in his report that from it you could build a hydrogen bomb. The HS kid passed in his report on time and to the astonishment of everyone including those in the agencies that built the bombs his report showed how to build a working H-bomb.
Remember this is in a time period that all that information was only available in local libraries and printed publications for the general public. Also anything to do with the workings of the H-bomb was considered above top secret.
I believe I read it in Readers Digest  Although it cold of been another publication we had at home.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

viddaloo

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #72 on: December 20, 2014, 05:02:08 AM »
It's much more likely it's being 'geo data engineered', ie hacked, what with the recent hacks against the NOAA and all. Remember hackers don't have to be outsiders. The way I see it, Arctic info data systems are ideal for hacking targets, as almost no–one lives there or ever sees the 'hard evidence'. Imagine a hack where the NOAA owners Department of Commerce — whose goal is to promote economic growth, according to Wikipedia — manage to convince everyone that we have twice as much ice left as we really have. How many years do you think they would get away with such a lie? And how much economic growth could be created in the meantime?
[]

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #73 on: December 20, 2014, 06:09:37 PM »
Correlation does not equal causation

however,  the break from previous trends in arctic ice volumes started in June of 2013 (see orange trend line midway down the chart.  last two data points are 2013 and 2014 values).



This change in trend directly correlates to the time of orbital operations of the secret remote controlled U.S. Air Force orbital shuttle called, "X-37B" (launch December 2012, return 674 days later)

http://news.sky.com/story/1355493/mystery-shuttle-lands-after-two-year-flight

Quote
The space plane, known as the X-37B, landed at Vandenberg Air Force Base on the Southern California coast on Friday after circling the Earth for 674 days

I have documented on another thread the 2014 patterns that led to cooler temperatures and cloud cover that suppressed early melt-pool formations at the beginning of the melt season here:

These changes in mid-latitude water vapor introduction into the arctic was, in part caused by a massive blocking pattern in the north east pacific that caused a 2-year drought in California.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html

Again, correlation does not equal causation.

however, I do see some causation (of higher sea ice volumes) through a series of very small periods of abnormal weather patterns forcing moisture into the arctic and driving down temperatures during the early portion of the melt season, leading to higher arctic minimum volumes in september.

« Last Edit: December 21, 2014, 04:09:16 AM by jai mitchell »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #74 on: December 21, 2014, 01:17:40 AM »
I think it's much more likely that the Arctic simply went into mourning, given that the legend that was Ray Harryhausen died in May 2013.

Correlation doesn't equal causation, though. But I know what I believe.

viddaloo

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #75 on: December 21, 2014, 01:47:07 AM »
Hacking the geo data systems is very hard for ordinary people to discover. Most of us don't see a single meter of sea ice during a normal year, and even when we do see sea ice, we only see local ice on our own city harbour or some other place on a holiday. In no way can normal folks get a relevant total overview of the sea ice situation, and that is why they could get away with hacking it.

Universities and science institutions also increasingly coordinate and cooperate their observation and modeling efforts, for instance the Cryosat measurements apply the PIOMAS model for calculating their presented data. You would probably have a hard time finding a data source that openly contradicted the hacked data, which is another reason they could get away with hacking it.

It would also be more difficult for us to discover hacking of the geo data systems if for any reason the press and the relevant webservers were completely silent about such a hack. If this was the case, a hack like that of the NOAA computers reported by Radio EcoShock recently, would largely go unnoticed by the general population, and even by amateur sea ice enthusiasts.

They could be hacked or not hacked, we wouldn't know the difference.
[]

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #76 on: December 21, 2014, 08:31:23 AM »
Hacking the geo data systems is very hard for ordinary people to discover. Most of us don't see a single meter of sea ice during a normal year, and even when we do see sea ice, we only see local ice on our own city harbour or some other place on a holiday. In no way can normal folks get a relevant total overview of the sea ice situation, and that is why they could get away with hacking it.

Universities and science institutions also increasingly coordinate and cooperate their observation and modeling efforts, for instance the Cryosat measurements apply the PIOMAS model for calculating their presented data. You would probably have a hard time finding a data source that openly contradicted the hacked data, which is another reason they could get away with hacking it.

It would also be more difficult for us to discover hacking of the geo data systems if for any reason the press and the relevant webservers were completely silent about such a hack. If this was the case, a hack like that of the NOAA computers reported by Radio EcoShock recently, would largely go unnoticed by the general population, and even by amateur sea ice enthusiasts.

They could be hacked or not hacked, we wouldn't know the difference.

Did you remember to put your tin foil hat on this morning?

Peter's "Harryhausen hypothesis" is far more plausible.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #77 on: December 22, 2014, 06:32:44 PM »

Did you remember to put your tin foil hat on this morning?

Peter's "Harryhausen hypothesis" is far more plausible.

This is the weather pattern that causes the cooler arctic temperatures in the beginning of the melt seasons of 2013 and 2014.



The pattern is caused by a "ridiculously resilient ridge" of high pressure that formed in the North East Pacific during this time.

It caused increase clouds and decreased temperatures which suppressed melt pond formation in the early season which has been indicated as the primary predictor of end of season sea ice minimum extent and volume.

both 2013 and 2014 exhibited similar patterns, a sharp drop in temperatures below the average on days 128 and around 155 of the year.





The blocking high pressure pattern observed in the North East pacific is much more likely under the scenarios observed under the GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project)  http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP/

but

since actual geoengineering is an unfalsifiable hypothesis (unable to be ruled out, so a perpetual possibility), it is far more likely that the regional increase in aerosol emissions from southeast asia is producing an analogy to the global dimming CMIP5 model runs found in the GeoMIP analysis.  I fly often for work and have observed the relative increase in haze and reflectivity of cloud surfaces above 27,000 feet for several decades now.




That being said,

This is a classic example of why climate scientists operate under a self-censoring bias toward "least drama" (otherwise called "type-I error avoidance bias")

This is because some people function with a middle school mentality and would rather play a game of one-upmanship and assert some kind of false intellectual superiority than let the scientific method operate like it should.

in summary:

I have observed and documented the weather pattern, I have correlated it to the temperature drops, I have used the current body of science to show how it suppresses sea ice loss and how this observed effect mimics the outputs from CMIP5 models run to see what geoengineering would look like. 

I included the possibility (of geoengineering) but qualified it as an unfalsifiable hypothesis, with a more likely alternative of simply a function of current aerosol emissions.

your response is the equivalent of a "fart joke"
« Last Edit: December 22, 2014, 06:45:33 PM by jai mitchell »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2538
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #78 on: December 22, 2014, 08:49:26 PM »
I notice that it is the third mission ! Was there a mission in 2012 ? If the purpose of that mission is to slow down the decline of the Arctic, would the loss in 2012 have been worse than that it was ?
Just asking myself some questions...
The cloud cover was anusually high in 2013, 2014 we should see a decline in cloud cover in 2015 otherwise it would appear statisticaly be very unprobable...

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #79 on: December 22, 2014, 10:45:33 PM »
I notice that it is the third mission ! Was there a mission in 2012 ? If the purpose of that mission is to slow down the decline of the Arctic, would the loss in 2012 have been worse than that it was ?
Just asking myself some questions...
The cloud cover was anusually high in 2013, 2014 we should see a decline in cloud cover in 2015 otherwise it would appear statisticaly be very unprobable...

impossible to say one way or the other, I can assert that the ridiculously resilient ridge of high pressure that blocked California's storms for 2 years (and eventually led to cooler temperatures in the spring in the arctic) has melted away.  So, yes, if my direct observations hold any meaning than the indication is that the weather should be shifting and we will likely see patterns more similar to 2012.

we shall see.

of course, It might just be that there was a magical increase in winter ice accumulations due to a "recovery" caused by greater heat loss from the surface of the oceans under reduced ice cover during the months of October and November, leading to a more gradual sea ice transition. . .
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #80 on: December 23, 2014, 12:59:48 AM »
I included the possibility (of geoengineering) but qualified it as an unfalsifiable hypothesis, with a more likely alternative of simply a function of current aerosol emissions.

No, you tied it very specifically by implication to (unnamed) actions by a particular US satellite.  I gave the only appropriate response.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #81 on: December 23, 2014, 05:48:19 AM »
I included the possibility (of geoengineering) but qualified it as an unfalsifiable hypothesis, with a more likely alternative of simply a function of current aerosol emissions.

No, you tied it very specifically by implication to (unnamed) actions by a particular US satellite.  I gave the only appropriate response.

I said that there is a body of work that I posted on the subject that showed a significant implication of Asian aerosols and nearly unprecedented blocking pattern in the northeast pacific.  I also showed that there was a mysterious black-ops flight of a remote controlled space shuttle that was doing secret "experiments" during its 650+ day flight.  I then said that this was, of course, not causation.

If it only takes a precise weather pattern to push mid-latitude moisture into the arctic at key dates in the mid and late spring and this results in a significant increase in the September minimum, then it changes the calculus of what would be necessary to geoengineer a more persistent sea ice regimen. 

I understand that you have probably not given this much thought and that this is why you think your response is appropriate.

Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #82 on: December 23, 2014, 01:07:27 PM »
I reiterate: the Harryhausen hypothesis is at least as plausible as the suggestion that a shuttle flight can magically engender and maintain a precise weather pattern.  I admit that I haven't got the remotest germ of a plausible causative mechanism, nor indeed do I know what would be required to affect the weather on such a scale other than that it would require mind-boggling amounts of energy.

Then again, that goes for both of us: the difference is that I'm aware of it.

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #83 on: December 23, 2014, 01:10:15 PM »
Not to mention the fact that if you were correct, the US air force would have to be deliberately trying to promote Arctic melt (and drought in California, since the same weather pattern causes both).  Why?

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #84 on: December 23, 2014, 05:54:34 PM »
I am glad that you are skeptical, so am I

but you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.  Specifically assuming that all of the energy needed to create a high/low pressure disturbance would necessarily be generated from human means.

to be specific, only a small signal is need to create an amplification.  once, I went to a museum that had a 5 meter concrete steel-encased pendulum.  It weighed over 3 tonnes.  I was 7 years old and with a very small magnet on a string, using small incremental pulls at the right time and intensity, I was able to get it to swing an arc of 1 meter.

I already told you that the high pressure blocking system was present in the GeoMIP analysis (or at least, more likely)

The presence of the blocking system that caused the drought was a cause of the weather pattern that pushed large volumes of moisture into the arctic that helped REDUCE ice loss, not increase it.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #85 on: December 23, 2014, 06:01:03 PM »
I notice that it is the third mission ! Was there a mission in 2012 ? If the purpose of that mission is to slow down the decline of the Arctic, would the loss in 2012 have been worse than that it was ?
Just asking myself some questions...
The cloud cover was anusually high in 2013, 2014 we should see a decline in cloud cover in 2015 otherwise it would appear statisticaly be very unprobable...

Laurent, I believe that the previous missions were very short.  This last one was almost 2.5 times the supposed orbital maximum duration for the system.

The next one is scheduled for 2015, though I don't know when.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Bryantfinlay

  • Guest
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #86 on: December 29, 2014, 11:48:58 PM »
I don't believe it's being geoengineering at the moment, but it may have to be to head off the methane issue. There are several studies that show it is feasible and can have good results in theory. In real life, the jury's still out on that one

nukefix

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #87 on: December 30, 2014, 05:47:21 PM »
This change in trend directly correlates to the time of orbital operations of the secret remote controlled U.S. Air Force orbital shuttle called, "X-37B" (launch December 2012, return 674 days later)
There's no known way to modify the weather using the puny amount of power available on a satellite. Furthermore, the orbit of X-37B did not get anywhere near polar areas.

viddaloo

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #88 on: December 30, 2014, 10:27:44 PM »
Please help me find this: Which Hollywood movie features a top–notch screen/hologram control–room for cyclone manipulation, and jets flying into eye of the hurricane to release modifying agents?

Edit: Superstorm (2007).

« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 12:10:34 AM by viddaloo »
[]

Bryantfinlay

  • Guest
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #89 on: December 30, 2014, 11:23:24 PM »
Day after tomorrow?

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #90 on: December 30, 2014, 11:27:52 PM »
Can't wait to see where this line of questioning is going...

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7822
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1140
  • Likes Given: 556
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #91 on: December 31, 2014, 12:23:09 AM »
Please help me find this: Which Hollywood movie features a top–notch screen/hologram control–room for cyclone manipulation, and jets flying into eye of the hurricane to release modifying agents?

Edit: Superstorm (2007).



Here's another great movie, I mean waste of time (with Charlie Sheen, and soem aliens heating up the planet to make it more suitable for them to live on, without those pesky humans): The Arrival (1994);D
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

viddaloo

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #92 on: December 31, 2014, 12:38:44 AM »
Although fictional, I don't think it's a total waste of time (that's being a bit harsh):

Quote from: Wikipedia
Superstorm originally aired on BBC One for a period of three weeks, totaling three 59 minute episodes, from 15 April 2007 to 29 April 2007. Each episode was followed by a half-hour documentary on BBC Two on extreme weather monitoring and forecasting, called The Science of Superstorms.

It seems BBC2 chimed in with a real documentary (not docudrama) after each BBC1 docudrama episode, yet these were about monitoring/forecasting only, and not diversion/seeding.

I read somewhere recently that US meteorologists made a blunder with Hurricane Sandy, and that their deadly error was due to the storm being 'too weak' for an arbitrary limit of theirs, so that Sandy passed 'under the radar' for too long. Some sort of superstorm 'turf–war' between the state agencies....
[]

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #93 on: December 31, 2014, 02:58:01 AM »

Here's another great movie, I mean waste of time (with Charlie Sheen, and soem aliens heating up the planet to make it more suitable for them to live on, without those pesky humans): The Arrival (1994);D

haha!  I always told my friends, (jokingly)

Quote
That is why the aliens have big eyes and area 51 is located in the desert!

(they are using us to geoengineer our planet and they have adapted to underground and high heat!)
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2081
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #94 on: December 31, 2014, 05:30:01 AM »
Quote
If you can't tend to your own planet, none of you deserve to live here

Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Kethern

  • New ice
  • Posts: 11
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #95 on: December 31, 2014, 06:26:17 PM »
I read somewhere recently that US meteorologists made a blunder with Hurricane Sandy, and that their deadly error was due to the storm being 'too weak' for an arbitrary limit of theirs, so that Sandy passed 'under the radar' for too long. Some sort of superstorm 'turf–war' between the state agencies....

Shortly before landfall Sandy went from being a hurricane to an extratropical storm.  The National Hurricane Center could not make forecasts for it at that point (literally, the software wouldn't allow it), so forecasting was handed over to the local National Weather Service offices.  That did not go smoothly.