While we are at most a month ahead of the yearly minima I think this thread will be needed. We are now seeing the second year in a row with a modest melting in the Arctic. In fact, this will also be the first time for "many" years as there haven't been a difference of more than 10 mn km2 from the yearly maxima to the yearly minima. So far, only 8,9 Mn km2 have melted away. This have had the consequences that some people here at the forum are discussing whether the Arctic is being geo engineered secretly. There have also been discussions about how important an early onset of the melt season is to reach low values in September. I think we also need to incorporate the weather during the winters too...
What we have seen during both 2013 and 2014 are very favorable pre-conditions for low melting through summer. The summer of 2013 was, as we have stated, cold in the CAB (according to DMI) with a very late melt onset and an early melting offset. One consequence from this was that the snow pack didn't melt out completely but was later accumulated during the winter which was mainly dominated by cyclones. This year we have seen very few indications of melt ponds which may be the result of a thicker snow cover which have protected the ice.
In 2009 there was also a cold summer but the winter of 2010 was dominated by high pressures (correct me if I'm wrong!) which should have implicated a low snow cover onto the ice in spring 2010 followed by quite favorable weather conditions for melting. This pattern was repeated both 2011 and 2012 and we ended up with having the lowest SIE as ever have been observed.
The best/worst case scenario IMO for the winter of 2014/2015 are as follow:
Best: high pressures dominating from september-november when refreezing occurs followed by cyclonic activity during the rest of the winter. With a HP early in the season refreezing will be quick and should allow for a thick ice cover.
Worst: cyclonic weather with a small amount of snow during september-november followed by persistent high pressure domes. Snow is, as we know, a good isolator and only a few centimeters of snow make the ice growth much slower than otherwise.
Forecast for the next month: I think we'll see a mix of HP and LP through the next month. AO have been very stable and neutral or weak negative for two months now.
A question for Neven, ChrisReynolds, Friv, Deep Octopus et al is how an eventual El NiƱo will affect the Arctic weather pattern during the winters?