The fascinating saga of the Arctic goes on, and today I found myself puzzled by this:
And this:
2011 0.2 6.45 6.64
2007 -0.35 -10.73 11.08
2014 -0.88 5.75 6.63
2008 2.36 -1.12 3.48 [*may29*]
2006 -1.47 -14.04 15.51
2010 -1.95 -4.34 6.29
The average extent prognosis bowing downward for the first time, but when does it cross the nearest graph, and what year might that graph belong to? Obviously it's way outside the scope of this chart, and the little 'cheat sheet' above suggests it is 2008's graph that is crossed by the prognosis arc on May 29. I didn't even know 2008 was below us! But clearly it is, and it's really not very strange, in January, after the record low 2007 season, that 2008 average extent is very low.
The prognosis arc for the AAE is based on the development over the last fortnight, and as we move forward in the next days, it's expected to become even steeper downward, and I would guess a crossing of the 2011 graph within the scope of the AAE chart will become apparent in the next few days, provided daily AAE deltas are still negative.
The average volume prognosis is back into June territory, meaning the 2015 annual average volume will not go from 5th to 6th lowest before the pink graph is crossed, perhaps on June 2nd?
My cheat sheet again indicates some interesting facts not shown in the chart:
[-1242] -375 -42 266 552 758 782 461 -106
[16.89] 17.51 17.73 17.94 18.1 18.31 18.34 18.04 17.55
First that the weekly delta is lower than 7 days ago, a fact that implies the prognosis arc is actually going down again in the far end to the right, way outside the chart. Second that we will most likely see the prognosis going down for the first time within the scope of the chart within the next few days, thus going further into June on the pink graph, and possible even into the green. In which case we're looking at a transition into 4th lowest instead of 6th lowest, which is the implication of crossing the pink.
Of course, having the prognosis arc bowing down like that within the near future of the chart, also carries a very real possibility that the main purple non–prognosis graph will also be down at some point during this spring. That will be for the first time in about a year.
Newbie hint: Remember, you cannot have record low ice during the year without these annual average graphs first turning downward at some point.