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Jim Hunt

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #200 on: December 19, 2014, 01:38:15 PM »
Strong Fram export.

For any other buoy watchers out there, the raw ice mass balance buoy data has moved to a new location at: http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/newdata.htm

Buoy 2014E, which started out in April near the North Pole, recently put in its greatest ever daily distance and is now well south of Svalbard: http://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2014e 
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #201 on: December 19, 2014, 05:52:21 PM »
Jim,

I must admit I rarely find the time to follow the buoys, but that is what I was expecting from following HYCOM.

Long may it continue.  :)

viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #202 on: December 19, 2014, 10:17:24 PM »
I notice the US Department of Commerce only wants to talk about March in their December 2014 'Arctic Report Card'. I wonder why.

Could it be because their cited source, Cryosat, that shows a decrease in sea ice volume for autumn, reveals a fact which doesn't jive with their 'rebound' and 'resilience' overall narrative?



Amazingly, a full 47 minutes long AGU press conference on the Commerce Deparment's so–called 'Arctic Report Card', and yet no time to report on October and November sea ice losses, only March increases? Not a single word on the autumn? I think here we have to look at the Wikipedia detail on the US Department of Commerce, that says:

Quote from: Wikipedia
The United States Department of Commerce (DOC) is the Cabinet department of the United States government concerned with promoting economic growth.

So the reason may be as simple as applying a lucrative political 'spin' (known in Scandinavia and Europe especially from Tony Blair's first cabinet period in England). After all the main goal of the DOC is to promote economic growth. Follow the money.

Special ludicrous bonus climate denial quote from the Deparment of Commerce press conference:

Quote from: Department of Commerce
If not a *totally* ice–free summer/end of summer [by the end of the 21st century]
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viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #203 on: December 21, 2014, 12:38:50 AM »
Bremen: An ice concentration of about 90% implies we now probably have some open water at the North Pole, 2 days from winter solstice.
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Peter Ellis

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #204 on: December 21, 2014, 01:21:00 AM »
No, it implies that passive microwave measurement has an error of about 10%. You can't overrule physics by fiat.

Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #205 on: December 21, 2014, 09:23:41 AM »
Quote
Strong Fram export.

Race to the Fram North of Greenland (thanks to ESA and DMI for the daily Sentinel-1 images):

(click to start animation)

Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #206 on: December 21, 2014, 09:30:14 AM »
Has everything to do with winds that for some time persist in the following pattern.



Fram export, Beaufort to Chukchi transport and the Laptev region the ice factory is operating hard (helped by the low Siberian temperature of the winds):

jdallen

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #207 on: December 21, 2014, 12:13:41 PM »
Quote
Strong Fram export.

Race to the Fram North of Greenland (thanks to ESA and DMI for the daily Sentinel-1 images):

(click to start animation)

Aside from the speed, I'm struck by how torn up the ice is.  Past years watching the same movement, I recall seeing far smoother, consistently similar surfaces.  This looks like gravel pouring down a sluice.

Regardless, lots of 2+ meter ice being replaced (elsewhere) by < 1 meter ice (initially).
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viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #208 on: December 30, 2014, 04:31:40 AM »
Interesting abrupt drop of 235 km³ at the end of the month/year.
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Bryantfinlay

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #209 on: December 30, 2014, 05:57:15 AM »
That is weird. Temporary or long-lasting?

Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #210 on: December 30, 2014, 08:44:47 AM »
That is weird.

Not weird, totally incredible. Temperature over the Arctic Ocean is below -20 oC, most below -25  oC. No matter what happens at the fringes (look at Bering and Baffin), the freezing at the core will overwhelm that for some months to come.

viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #211 on: December 30, 2014, 08:52:05 AM »
That is weird.

Not weird, totally incredible.

Nah. Sudden drops in gain anomalies happen almost every December.
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jdallen

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #212 on: December 30, 2014, 05:37:37 PM »
That is weird.

Not weird, totally incredible.

Nah. Sudden drops in gain anomalies happen almost every December.
Wipneus may have suffered an attack by autocorrect.  That said, yes, I see your point, Vid - by your numbers the rate of increase year over year dropped off. If consistent, that may have implications for April.

If I may offer a friendly suggestion - I find it a challenge to sort through the discontinuous values on your graph. I'm not sure what to suggest by way of changing it, but you might consider a different way of framing your numbers.
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viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #213 on: December 30, 2014, 10:01:14 PM »
Thanks, JD. I'm always open for constructive suggestions, though in this case the reason there are discontinuous values on my graph is that it is only supposed to show abrupt drops in gain anomalies. The graph is made to emphasize particularly astonishing exceptions to the rule of steady ice growth in winter.

The numbers — annotations — themselves I have explained earlier in this thread, show how much ice volume was caused by the abrupt drop to not be added to the total value, compared to a no–drop situation.

I could choose the easy way and just show a wave–shaped graph for December volume through the years, but then I wouldn't add anything that hasn't already been shown and presented adequately by others. I don't feel like being a copycat here :)
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Unmex Chingon

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #214 on: December 31, 2014, 04:02:38 AM »
Thanks, JD. I'm always open for constructive suggestions, though in this case the reason there are discontinuous values on my graph is that it is only supposed to show abrupt drops in gain anomalies. The graph is made to emphasize particularly astonishing exceptions to the rule of steady ice growth in winter.

The numbers — annotations — themselves I have explained earlier in this thread, show how much ice volume was caused by the abrupt drop to not be added to the total value, compared to a no–drop situation.

I could choose the easy way and just show a wave–shaped graph for December volume through the years, but then I wouldn't add anything that hasn't already been shown and presented adequately by others. I don't feel like being a copycat here :)
  What would these abrupt drop get us for average daily volume in 2030 and 2031?  Do you have a trendline for that?

Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #215 on: December 31, 2014, 07:43:50 AM »
Wipneus may have suffered an attack by autocorrect.

No, I did not know that "a drop of 235 km³" was actually a drop in anomaly of something.

viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #216 on: December 31, 2014, 09:15:19 AM »
<snip>

Neven: no more snark and childish word games in 2015, please.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2015, 10:26:13 AM by Neven »
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viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #217 on: January 01, 2015, 07:45:08 AM »
4th lowest November extent gain since 2002 (IJIS).


4th lowest December extent gain since 2002 (IJIS).
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Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #218 on: January 01, 2015, 11:45:31 AM »
Although in the Fram Strait ice keeps moving south,  the North Greenland source has stopped in the last few days.

(click for the animation of S1 images from DMI to start)

viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #219 on: January 01, 2015, 02:27:53 PM »
The year ended with 238055 km² of lost extent refreeze during the last two CH₄ peaks.

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Bryantfinlay

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #220 on: January 01, 2015, 04:26:23 PM »
So what does that mean?

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #221 on: January 04, 2015, 12:35:33 PM »
Interesting post over on Neven's Arctic Sea ice site from Velo Kallio of the Sea research Society who notes;

"In addition, the continuing crushing and tumbling of large amounts of recently formed ice into pack ice (behind the North Pole) does not allow the saline brine within sea ice to drain out easily. This is because the brine is drained by gravity; if the block of ice turns upsided down the draining brine reverses to the opposite direction. As the ice is as restless as it is now, the direction of gravity field within ice blocks keeps changing. Thus ice remains more saline. This winters' "thick" pack ice behind North Pole will, therefore, melt very easily. (Ice rejects salt if it stays upright long enough, but this threshold has seen its own tipping point this winter.)"

I had noted overwash taking snow in early refreeze season but never considered the impact of rolling/tumbling on ice salinity levels but it does make perfect sense ( to me),

With ongoing export costing us our 2.5m+ ice from the Atlantic side ( replaced by late formed FT ice) any input from extra salty FY ice will not be a welcome addition to the mix of the pack?

We'd better be praying real hard for a 3rd year , back to back, of low export/low melt synoptics to dominate this coming melt season as any return to moderate export/moderate melt could wipe out any signs of rebound in one fell swoop.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #222 on: January 05, 2015, 05:51:33 PM »
The refreeze has come to a near standstill. Even using the trailing 5 day mean since Dec 28th, the increase has been the lowest on record at just a 78.4k, well below the next lowest of 139.2.k in 1983. Even the increase from the 27th to now is lowest on record, albeit by a smaller margin. The pause with the 1 day extent is even more impressive, with no increase in extent since December 25th.





If we continue with this rate of increase, we'll be ranked as lowest on record on record in 5 days.


At this time of year, the central Arctic regions are mostly frozen over and the majority of coverage increases (both extent and area) come from the peripheral Arctic regions mainly the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, but also to a lesser extent the Baffin Sea.

Unfortunately, looking at the 850hPa temperature anomalies, there appears to persistently strong positive temperatures anomalies right across the Pacific sector regions (Okhotsk and Bering) for the foreseeable future, with some -ve anomalies over the Baffin Sea. This should keep extent and area growth well below average.


Below is the 850hPa temp anomalies across the northern hemisphere for the next 5 days, note the positive anomalies across the Pacific side.



We'll most likely be 3rd lowest on tomorrows update, but where will we be by next weekend?

Hubert

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #223 on: January 05, 2015, 06:02:38 PM »
No data Arctische Pinguin Wipneus

Bering Sea ice - catastrophe

What next??? 2015 or 2016 ice free Arctic Ocean?

Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #224 on: January 05, 2015, 06:30:42 PM »
No data Arctische Pinguin Wipneus


Same thing happened previous new year: no data. BUT 20150101 just came in, I trust we will be back in business soon.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #225 on: January 05, 2015, 11:05:19 PM »
We normally see some kind of balance with Fram losses being balanced out by ice factory synoptics over Bering but this period appears to differ with both losses from Fram an poor development over on the Pacific side?

The big lows over our side of the pond look to keep positioning the last of the 'retained ice' from the past two years over Fram awaiting the next northerly plunge to take it out of the basin?

I wonder how Piomas will reflect this in Dec/Jan figures? I think we may be rejoining the bottom set some time soon?
KOYAANISQATSI

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viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #226 on: January 06, 2015, 07:18:54 PM »
New CH₄ peak: 2402 ppb.

Note the big drops in extent and volume anomalies, with already 98705 km² of lost extent refreeze and 157 km³ of lost volume refreeze by January 4th and 5th. Please also note that yesterday's peak of 2402 ppb is lower than all of the three peaks from last month. (chart faq)

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viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #227 on: January 06, 2015, 08:17:45 PM »
That's actually 130,993 km² of lost sea ice extent refreeze by the 4th, corrected now in the script.

98705 km² is the total loss by January 5th.
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jdallen

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #228 on: January 06, 2015, 08:44:45 PM »
New CH₄ peak: 2402 ppb.

Note the big drops in extent and volume anomalies, with already 98705 km² of lost extent refreeze and 157 km³ of lost volume refreeze by January 4th and 5th. Please also note that yesterday's peak of 2402 ppb is lower than all of the three peaks from last month.
Questions suggested: is the CH4 driving the extent change, are both driven by another common cause, or are they independent and just synchronistic?
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #229 on: January 06, 2015, 11:59:41 PM »
 I'd imagine one's the dog and ones the tail JD?

The 'losses' appear to be low gains in the sea areas outside the basin ( Bering /Baffin/Okhotsk) and these appear due to synoptics? Out-gassing will occur if there is not 'cap' on the gasses? poor ice cover/ warm land surfaces ( relatively) must impact this?

JMA post 2014 as a record warm year. The current temp anoms across the basin must be a part of this ( and the constant influx of TM air into the Bering sea/Sea of Okhotsk ?)

Piomas will give us a better picture of what is occurring but I'd suggest we should expect a drop down into the other poor volume year is now likely?
« Last Edit: January 07, 2015, 01:22:19 PM by Gray-Wolf »
KOYAANISQATSI

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jdallen

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #230 on: January 07, 2015, 03:20:44 AM »
I'd imagine one's the dog and ones the tail JD?

The 'losses' appear to be low gains in the sea areas outside the basin ( Bering /Baffin/Okhotsk) and these appear due to synoptics? Out-gassing will occur if there is not 'cap' on the gasses? poor ice cover/ warm land surfaces ( relatively) must impact this?

JMA post 20124 as a record warm year. The current temp anoms across the basin must be a part of this ( and the constant influx of TM air into the Bering sea/Sea of Okhotsk ?)

Piomas will give us a better picture of what is occurring but I'd suggest we should expect a drop down into the other poor volume year is now likely?

All sounds reasonable.  I did a quick flyby of the Greenland nares strait threads... It showing no sign of slowing down export to Baffin (which is warmer than normal).  Previous recent winters with this were followed by significant retreats. We may have an interesting spring.
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Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #231 on: January 07, 2015, 08:22:16 AM »
No data Arctische Pinguin Wipneus


Same thing happened previous new year: no data. BUT 20150101 just came in, I trust we will be back in business soon.

All missing new year's data did come in (and has been processed). Jaxa/IJIS is back as well.

tombond

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #232 on: January 08, 2015, 01:01:43 AM »
The measurements made by NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments show a 5 percent increase in  solar radiation absorbed in the Arctic since the year 2000.

http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2208/

When averaged over the entire Arctic Ocean, the increase in the rate of absorbed solar radiation is about 10 Watts per square meter.

Regional areas such as the Beaufort Sea have experienced the highest absorption with an incredible 50 watts per square meter increase.

viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #233 on: January 08, 2015, 05:48:44 AM »
Yesterday's IJIS extent was 2nd lowest, and only 2014 remains to be beaten. 2015 was lower than 2014 on January 2nd, 3rd and 4th, but then 2011 and 2013 were lower than 2015, so therefore we weren't lowest ever.

The autozoom for Jan7 shows this downward turn in annual average extent on Jan 2–4:



If January 8th goes lower than 2014 again, we will see the graph turning down again, and the gap to 2011 narrowing. It's an exciting start of the year, but as we saw last year, 2014 was also lowest in January without going particularly low later in the year.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #234 on: January 08, 2015, 09:55:15 AM »
And spring 2012 saw the highest extent for many a year? The good retention we saw in both 13 and 14 was all down to variability in weather over the melt season and had nothing to do with the extent/area/volume at the start of melt season?

I would not like to see us apeing the Deniers and trying to make press over positioning of extent ( in the series) as it would appear that everything depends on how the 'weather' over summer behaves and is not so dependent on the now familiar start of melt season extent/area/Volume?

I'd say again that another repeat of the ice friendly conditions of 2013/14 would have me wondering about a 'pattern shift' in summer conditions across the basin? The odds have to be even more stacked against another return of retention synoptics and must favour either an average summer ( like 2012) and a warm summer over a cool, cloudy low export summer???
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OSweetMrMath

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #235 on: January 09, 2015, 07:14:36 PM »
Here is my update on my predictions for the NSIDC extent and PIOMAS volume maxima.

My predicted value for the December monthly average volume from PIOMAS was 15.1 thousand cubic km. The actual value was 15.074 thousand cubic km, making this one of the best predictions I've had this year. My prediction for April is unchanged at 24.1 thousand cubic km. As we get closer, the confidence interval gets smaller, so my 95% CI is 22.7 - 25.6 thousand cubic km.

My predicted value for the December monthly average extent from NSIDC was 12.4 million sq km. The actual value was 12.52 million sq km. My prediction for March is unchanged at 14.8 million sq km, with 95% CI now 14.2 - 15.5 million sq km. Note that my prediction method does not take into account the fact that extent growth has been slow so far this month. It's reasonable to guess that my current predictions for both January's extent and March's extent are likely to be high.

viddaloo

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #236 on: January 10, 2015, 02:27:16 PM »
2015 already has the lowest January refreeze by Jan9 in IJIS history, and daily extent is also lowest ever for this date.

The previous record holder in this game was 2007, pretty much a gamechanger in the Arctic, so 2015 may be an interesting one.



(chart faq)
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Wipneus

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #237 on: January 11, 2015, 10:23:49 AM »
Sequence of DMI's Sentinel 1A composites of Greenland Station Nord. The ice has stopped moving to the Fram, lots of compaction to be seen.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #238 on: January 11, 2015, 12:50:24 PM »
If the current forecast pans out I'd expect this 'stop' to be a very temporary affair with the big low planning to swipe the UK introducing strong easterly then northerly flows to the ice behind Svalbard
KOYAANISQATSI

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #239 on: January 13, 2015, 04:49:50 AM »
The METOP-1 AVHRR shows major collapse north of the Nares Strait, I do not recall seeing this previously in mid-January.

A4R

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #240 on: January 13, 2015, 07:04:29 AM »
The METOP-1 AVHRR shows major collapse north of the Nares Strait, I do not recall seeing this previously in mid-January.

It's striking, hm?  Some of us have been following this eagerly on the Nares Strait thread.  The discussion there has been great.  I understand that in 2007 there was no arch so would expect it looked similar then.  I also understand that February isn't too late for an arch to form, but arch formation sure doesn't seem imminent.  Meanwhile, as you point out, the ice pack in the Lincoln Sea is going to be pretty loose.  I'm interested to see what effects this might cause if it persists.  Would it affect ice movement in the greater CAB?  Would ice be more mobile or would these conditions perhaps buffer ice pressure that normally drives the Beaufort Gyre, resulting in less movement?  The ice export through the Nares seems startling, but maybe the trans-polar drift exports the same amount of ice whether it can use both the Nares and the Fram or just the Fram.

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #241 on: January 13, 2015, 08:32:25 AM »
The METOP-1 AVHRR shows major collapse north of the Nares Strait, I do not recall seeing this previously in mid-January.

It's striking, hm?  Some of us have been following this eagerly on the Nares Strait thread.  The discussion there has been great.  I understand that in 2007 there was no arch so would expect it looked similar then.  I also understand that February isn't too late for an arch to form, but arch formation sure doesn't seem imminent.  Meanwhile, as you point out, the ice pack in the Lincoln Sea is going to be pretty loose.  I'm interested to see what effects this might cause if it persists.  Would it affect ice movement in the greater CAB?  Would ice be more mobile or would these conditions perhaps buffer ice pressure that normally drives the Beaufort Gyre, resulting in less movement?  The ice export through the Nares seems startling, but maybe the trans-polar drift exports the same amount of ice whether it can use both the Nares and the Fram or just the Fram.

I'm much less concerned about the export through Nares, which is nominal, and far more worried about the effect the erosion of ice in the Lincoln Sea will have on the rest of the pack.  It is already far too vulnerable to forces which would push ice through the Fram.  Even less coherence could mean one good solid "whack" could leave the ice exquisitely vulnerable to early melt, exposing substantial amounts of open ocean to sunlight at high latitude.

I'm hoping fervently for lots of positive feedbacks.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #242 on: January 13, 2015, 11:46:36 AM »
The METOP-1 AVHRR shows major collapse north of the Nares Strait

DMI's AVHRR closeup also shows a sizeable crack currently creeping around from Nord:



As Sonia points out, see also the Sentinel animations over on the Nares Strait thread.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #243 on: January 13, 2015, 01:33:58 PM »
http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

I find the above site useful for daily 'snaps' of Nares/Lincoln and Beaufort? It appears the sudden halt in the Gyre has lead to a , now familiar, fragmentation across Beaufort? Any 'relaxation' in Lincoln provides 'space' for the Beaufort event to relax into?
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #244 on: January 13, 2015, 02:15:36 PM »
The Beaufort has been fractured since 112714, and has continued to refracture since.

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #245 on: January 25, 2015, 04:07:49 PM »
Today was another setback for the refreeze, in terms of extent:

2015/2 (12504555/12469040) 2015/7 (12617633/12582720) 2015/8 (12582720/12572767) 2015/20 (13235356/13223023) 2015/24 (13387581/13385153)

This puts Jan 2015 ahead of 2014, on par with 2010, 2011 and 2013 but behind 2012:

2012/4 (12787376/12752679) 2012/13 (13316476/13278795) 2012/14 (13278795/13255298) 2012/15 (13255298/13208256) 2012/16 (13208256/13123560) 2012/17 (13123560/13087285) 2012/25 (13419798/13419569) 2012/28 (13455059/13451393) 2012/29 (13451393/13446359)

No Jan days had volume setbacks in the 2010s, as the latest was 2007/29 (19639/19497). I've got two days of the first week in my Jan 2015 PIOMAS estimate, but we'll have to wait to have those confirmed.
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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #246 on: January 27, 2015, 06:20:50 AM »
Average extent now looks set to return to 4th lowest during February (after crossing into 5th on New Year's Eve), and average volume may follow suit as early as July 19th. Prospects are also good for record low sea ice levels in 2015, thanks to record high ocean temperatures and CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere.


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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #247 on: January 27, 2015, 08:20:05 PM »
Average extent now looks set to return to 4th lowest during February (after crossing into 5th on New Year's Eve)

Seems very unlikely to me.

You are using a quadratic extrapolation of Annual Average Extent.  The graph below shows what that implies for the usual daily sea ice extent.  The red solid line shows the extent from 1 to 26 January 2015, and the red dotted line corresponds to your projection from 27 January to 28 February 2015.




Do you seriously think that this is a realistic expectation?

Your extrapolation of Annual Average Volume is also very unlikely, for similar reasons.

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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #248 on: January 27, 2015, 09:49:26 PM »
Average extent now looks set to return to 4th lowest during February (after crossing into 5th on New Year's Eve)

Seems very unlikely to me.

You are using a quadratic extrapolation of Annual Average Extent.  The graph below shows what that implies for the usual daily sea ice extent.  The red solid line shows the extent from 1 to 26 January 2015, and the red dotted line corresponds to your projection from 27 January to 28 February 2015.

No, it doesn't. You were right the last time, so I thought I'd give you the benefit of the doubt this time, but now you are wrong. Not sure how you came up with your dotted graph, but those are not my values. Guess it's just guesswork?  ;D
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Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« Reply #249 on: January 27, 2015, 10:14:09 PM »
I think projections may get scrambled by the weather.  A huge storm is currently giving the eastern seaboard a pasting with hurricane force winds and upwards of 80CM (!) of snow.

All that energy is barreling north into the Norwegian and Barents.

There will be another following it in about three days.

That's been happening all season, and I think is contributing to the extreme fracturing of the ice which has taken place.  I can only postulate but not show, I expect this pattern is limiting thickening of the pack and reducing extent gains.
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