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Consequences / Re: 2021 ENSO
« Last post by vox_mundi on Today at 06:44:59 PM »
Scientists More Confident Projecting ENSO Changes Under Global Warming

An international team of scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the University of Tokyo, and the University of California, San Diego reported that ENSO-related climate variability seems doomed to increase under global warming. Their findings were published in Nature Geoscience on April 15.

Recently, the climate science community has found that ENSO's changes in fact strictly obey some basic physical mechanisms, which can reduce uncertainty in ENSO projections under greenhouse warming. "The saturation vapor pressure increases exponentially with the increase of temperature, so the same air temperature anomaly will lead to a larger saturation vapor pressure anomaly in a warmer climate," said lead author Dr. Hu Kaiming from IAP. "As a result, under global warming, even if ENSO's sea surface temperature remains unchanged, the response of tropical lower tropospheric humidity to ENSO will amplify, which in turn results in major reorganization of atmospheric temperature, circulation and rainfall."

Based on this mechanism, the team deduced an intensification in ENSO-driven anomalies in tropical humidity, tropical rainfall, upper tropospheric temperature in the tropics, and the subtropical jets under global warming. Almost all the latest CMIP5/6 climate model projections agreed well with the theoretical deduction, indicating the mechanism and projections were robust. "As extreme weather often results from ENSO-induced anomalous atmospheric circulation and temperature, the intensification of ENSO-driven atmospheric variability suggests that the risk of extreme weather will increase in the future," said Dr. Hu.

Intensification of El Niño-induced atmospheric anomalies under greenhouse warming, Nature Geoscience (2021)
Policy and solutions / Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Last post by NeilT on Today at 06:43:54 PM »
The core problem is to get the vehicle to drive as a human would.  Niceties such as remembering your parking space and how you park in it, are refinements which will come in time.  After all, you "know" that.  You will need to "tell" the vehicle what you know.  There is no place for that right now.

For the vehicle data, I'm not sure how much use live streaming data is.  Right now FSD is at the stage where it is learning to deal with immediate situations, just as we do.  Whilst we might like to know about downtown snarls, this kind of information is mainly so we can avoid it.

dRISK is all about trying to de-Risk teaching an AI to drive.  They do this by simulation.  It's a bit like sitting in a classroom and having someone talk to you day in day out about the edge cases and dangerous situations you might find yourself in and how to deal with them.  Except the AI has near perfect recall.

There comes a point, though, where data, for the sake of data, is counter productive.  It just means the AI has to sift through a larger and larger data set and that takes time and processing power.  The more you teach AI about "things" the more it has to remember.

The way we need to teach AI is in terms of how to respond, not millions of dry facts.  Think about a human driver.  Humans do not drive down the road trying to go through every situation to select the "best" response.  Humans watch the road, look out of obstacles, try to avoid oncoming or merging traffic, bikes, cycles and humans/animals.  We do this by experience in the real world and what does and doesn't work.  We discard the does not work and apply a filter to the "does work" which can then be used to solve new and unknown situations in the future.

dRISK is condemned to fail if this is their approach.  AI may be fast, but you can't load it up with every possible edge case in the world.  How would it deal with a huge pothole opening up underneath it?  It would have no clue because the one in a trillion edge case will never be taught to it.  However if you teach the AI how to respond to events and danger signals, it will automatically know what to do, if anything at all can be done.

This is not just about Data per se.  This is about the right data at the right time and the learned experiences which go with it.

Just as Waymo has not progressed in the last 6 years with their level 5 taxi service in geofenced areas, all the others who believe that the 1,000 TOPS of the Nvidia chipset alongside the provision of data centre speed connectivity to storage, will resolve the problem for them by just having a bigger data set and "hoping" that they have got all the edge cases, are going to have a rough time.
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Jim Hunt on Today at 06:31:14 PM »
So a little over a month ago and extent was 10th lowest now it is lowest?

Area is now lowest, but:

EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« Last post by Sebastian Jones on Today at 06:13:10 PM »
People With Extremist Views Less Able to Do Complex Mental Tasks, Research Suggests

Does this include the typical super-woke liberal idiot? Not strictly alt-right to find people with poor cognitive disposition and ideological dogmatic beliefs.

Umm, if they are typical, they are not extreme....
But of course, people with poor cognitive disposition and ideological dogmatic beliefs are not confined to the extreme right, and nobody said so.
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« Last post by interstitial on Today at 06:09:09 PM »
April 2021 data estimated based on first 14 days of the month. April is typically the lowest generation month for coal and gas. It is also a top generation month for wind and one of the better months for solar generation.
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« Last post by NeilT on Today at 06:06:17 PM »
Which is pretty much how it was before trains.  There were coaches and they did do individual pricing.  But by far the most common mass public transport was the Hackney-Carriage.  This was in cities.  Outside cities people took their own horse, carriage or walked.  Coaches were pretty much only town to town and city to city.

Once there are 16 seat vehicles on the route, I'm pretty certain that there will be individual tickets and also a scheduled run of sorts.  It may even be a choice, scheduled run or take an individual vehicle if you are in a hurry.  Just like it is above ground. 

Everyone who talks about mass public transport talks as if you can just get on a bus or train.  Just imagine, you are a family waiting to go to the convention centre.  4 of you. The bus or train arrives. It is full, as is the next and the next and.....  In London when I was taking bus and tube, I regularly wound up having to let 4 or 5 busses go past before I could get on.  Literally there wasn't a single space to squeeze into.  Now multiply that by 4.  I would then get to the tube station and have to let 2 or 4 or even 5 tubes go before there was a space I could get into.  Just imagine getting a family into that.

The service envisioned by Vegas and TBC, is fast, flexible and meets the needs of the majority of their customers.

Must be bad then, they should have gone for a one size fits all that fits nobody in the peak hours...

I had the unpleasant experience of being one of 25 people, jammed inbetween the two doors of a sprinter train, last local train out of Edinburgh, in the peak period.  Scotrail decided to put on two carriages, instead of 3 when there was 5 times the normal traffic.  It is amazing, you can actually fit 6 people across the corridor and 4 between each carriage partition wall.  A space which would normally take 5 - 6 people.

We passed 3 local stations where nobody could get on because there simply wasn't 6 square inches to push someone into.

I bought a motorcycle.  Reduced my commute time by 40% and cost by 60%.  However I increased my CO2 emissions about 30% (I still had to take the car to the train station).

People who talk about shared public transport as if it is a sure fire solution to all travel problems simply don't get it.  I Have travelled on the tube when there are over 1,200 people on a tube train.  On one journey the poor young woman in front of me was slowly squeezed closer and closer to me until her face was inside my focal length (I'm slowly going long sighted).  Being a seasoned tube traveller, I had jammed myself into the doors that don't open until my stop.

The whole thing about this solution is that it is flexible and scalable.  Exactly what they need.  With public transport systems, they work best when you don't need to travel.  When you really need to travel, they suck.  The tubes I'm talking about were running 1 every minute.  I understand that Moscow can achieve one every 30 seconds but their doors take no prisoners.

Policy and solutions / Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Last post by Tor Bejnar on Today at 06:04:09 PM »
Competition for Dojo.

About dRISK

Using dRISK for retraining, Autonomous Vehicles can detect and contend with edge cases 6x sooner and with 2x greater accuracy. dRISK has built a taxonomy of edge cases derived from massive and heterogeneous data focused on high risk -- millions of hours of CCTV footage trained on high-risk intersections, full-text accident reporting, and extensive expert input from both transportation specialists and NASA experts in failure mode analysis. Integration is easy, and data can be delivered exclusively for perception retraining on fully annotated simulated and real-life data, or for full-stack AV risk assessment with hardware in the loop. dRISK's customers include AV developers and the world's largest insurers and transport authorities

As I know nothing about the specialties involved, here is a suggestion for those who actually know something  :) 
Near high-risk locations, electronically emit the expert data, etc. (a service of the Town or Highway Dept.), so that AI-driven vehicles have this 'extra' support when entering a particular 'fray'.  I've seen Highway advisory radio signs that say something like, "Tune your AM radio to 1570 for updates on traffic conditions ahead."  Alternatively, each AI system, Tesla, Waymo, etc., could communicate with every vehicle (of their manufacturer) approaching a 'known danger zone' with the valuable data needed for safety.  A vehicle that frequents such a location could save it for future reference, just in case the 'transmitter' is down.

I presume Tesla autopilot learns how to drive into the unusual parking spaces a car owner frequents.  A car would have to learn, "We back in at home and park on the right side of the paved apron, with two tires on the brick 'extension' at John's, or else there would be many frustrated owners: "The car drove me from Atlanta to Tallahassee all by itself (275 miles - 440 km), and it can't even remember that I back in. I always back in!"
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Richard Rathbone on Today at 05:59:11 PM »
Its far enough out from Easter and the right time of week for the reporting ripples to have largely died out.  The week on week reported death rate is down 2.3% on last week compared to the week before (211 vs. 216), which was itself 32% down (216 vs. 320)  on the previous week.

The numbers are small enough for a certain amount of random jumping around to be expected, (e.g. doing the same comparison yesterday would have given -35 and +9), but they are far enough apart that it looks pretty clear that the effect of first doses on IFR was complete by Easter and that its chopped IFR by about a factor of 5 as expected from the early data on single dose efficacy. The big falls in death rate are probably over until the second vaccine dose kicks in. Delivery is well under way, over 50% and rising fast in the top priority group, maybe another 3 weeks of relatively low drops before the additional chopping of the IFR by the second dose starts showing up. (Maybe 5, it was a week or two more than I was expecting before the first dose plunge showed up)
How it’s going:
Love this future I live in where I'm learning how to deactivate robot dogs from 21 year old furries while trapped in my house due to the pandemic that's killed 3mil people. It's exactly what I always wanted.

PSA:  How to Deactivate Spot the Robot Dog 
[Many illustrations at the link.]
PSA: if you or someone nearby are being brutalized by a police Spot robot and can get a hand or something underneath, grab this handle and yank it forward. This releases the battery, instantly disabling the robot.
Keep your hands away from joints, Spot WILL crush your fingers.

If you are a bystander and can get BEHIND spot, don't hit the power button, hit the OTHER button - it physically disconnects the motors.

Spot can also be countered with booby traps easily.
If you're armed, shoot center-of-mass as normal. The lithium pack is huge and not armored.

Spot is also purely optical, meaning paint, dust, a sheet or blanket, sticky tape, etc can severely impair it.
Original stereo cameras on the face. 360 camera, pan/tilt/zoom cam, and LIDAR rangefinders on accessory rails.

The original tweet has gotten over 21k retweets and over 35k Likes....
Policy and solutions / Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Last post by NeilT on Today at 05:42:38 PM »
But regulations will be the penultimate barrier (behind customer acceptance):

My take is slightly different.  Regulations will be the Ultimate barrier.  Long after the problem with level 5 is solved, regulations will drag on.  Because it is in the hands of politicians and they don't like to make decisions unless they can guarantee it won't come back and bite them in the ass.

The way the press has been having a feeding frenzy on any single AI driven vehicle that has a problem, the ass munching is a given even if it exceeds expectations.
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