Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - swoozle

Pages: [1]
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: March 17, 2021, 03:47:23 AM »
HHI, your words in the latest post and your supposed "facts and sources" are not aligned. You confused proteins and genetic material, a 7th grade science concept. You quote a blog, a QAnon nut on twitter, a germ theory denier, and now an HIV/AIDS denier and expect us to treat you with the same regard as well tested and well supported theory that has stood the test of time. Appeal to authority is not strong enough on its own, but if you actually read my full previous reply, I pointed out multiple specific scientific flaws in your postulates that undermine the central tenet of your argument. You just refuse to acknowledge them. Your sources have abysmal authority and somehow even poorer quality of scientific rigor. I will not waste further time dissecting junk.

You're getting treated like a climate change denier would be in a cryosphere thread because you are acting like the biological science equivalent of one. Your sources do not actually challenge or empirically disprove anything related to germ theory, they just make nebulous criticisms, and state other, less supported, less parsimonious hypotheses. Just like creationism/"intelligent design" may be palatable to some, while still being entirely unable to hold a candle to the well-tested and massively experimentally/data supported theory of evolution, your "alternative theories" are cut from the same cloth. They don't hold up to the scrutiny of Occam's Razor.

I will not be responding to you again, because I agree with Oren, enough is enough. Further dialogue is a waste of my time, which may well be what your intent is: sea-lioning this forum. My intent is only to counter your false confidence with which you post your tripe with enough actual reasoning that casual readers of this thread don't buy into your bullshit. If you are not a sophisticated troll, even worse, you're a victim of pseudoscientific grift and spreading the rot elsewhere. Good day and goodbye.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: March 14, 2021, 06:00:55 AM »
"Fetal bovine serum" aka Bovine Serum Albumin (BSA) is a stable protein (not genetic material) used for immunoassays and is one of the most common research materials found in biological culture labs. I can almost guarantee you that BSA does not show up as "RNA sequences" and would be immediately called out if it was represented as such in any publication. It would be scandalous. The monkey kidney cells are likely used as hosts since viruses need cells to replicate and the BSA is a component of the medium used to grow the culture. There absolutely is a record considering that the virus's genome has been sequenced and individual base pair changes are recognized and tracked, with major mutations being given names.

You are completely out of your element and spouting loony-bin garbage. I respect different opinions being able to be shared here, but I hope this has opened Oren's and others' eyes that HHI is posing extremely inaccurate and disingenuous information. You are worse than a basic COVID denier because you are going further and denying a central tenet of immunology/biology as a whole. I'm going to need more evidence than a twitter post from a QAnon follower and a bitchute video from a germ theory denier to be convinced that 150 years of evidence is bunk. We can argue about the politics of the response to the pandemic all we want, but please stop spreading such blatant misinformation that you obviously have no idea how to verify.

To the moderation team, if my tone is too harsh please let me know and I can tone down this response, however I think my words are appropriate for the posts I have addressed, considering the degree of confidence with which such statements were posed.

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: February 09, 2021, 02:20:33 AM »
I am certainly not alt-Right.
But am I Right or Left?
I am "Right" on right-to-life.
I am "Left" on environmentalism
I am "Right" on transgenderism.
I am "Left" on immigration.
I am "Right" on same sex marriages.
I am "Left" on racial equality and helping minorities get ahead.
When a pollster calls and asks if I am Conservative or Liberal, I keep saying "Catholic". It drives them nuts.
I do not agree with either political party.

So, 'Right' means 'No' and 'Left' means 'Yes'.
Makes sense, I suppose when you think of Nancy Reagan's 'Just say no' campaign against drugs.

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 08, 2021, 11:51:12 AM »
FBI Uncovers Al-Qaeda Plot To Just Sit Back And Enjoy Collapse Of United States

WASHINGTON—Putting the nation on alert against what it has described as a “highly credible terrorist threat,” the FBI announced today that it has uncovered a plot by members of al-Qaeda to sit back and enjoy themselves while the United States collapses of its own accord.

Multiple intelligence agencies confirmed that the militant Islamist organization and its numerous affiliates intend to carry out a massive, coordinated plan to stand aside and watch America’s increasingly rapid decline, with terrorist operatives across the globe reportedly mobilizing to take it easy, relax, and savor the spectacle as it unfolds.

“We have intercepted electronic communication indicating that al-Qaeda members are actively plotting to stay out of the way while America as we know it gradually crumbles under the weight of its own self-inflicted debt and disrepair,” FBI Deputy Director Mark F. Giuliano told the assembled press corps. “If this plan succeeds, it will leave behind a nation with a completely dysfunctional economy, collapsing infrastructure, and a catastrophic health crisis afflicting millions across the nation. We want to emphasize that this danger is very real.”

“And unfortunately, based on information we have from intelligence assets on the ground, this plot is already well under way,” he added.

A recently declassified CIA report confirmed that all known al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations—from Pakistan to Yemen, and from Somalia to Algeria—have been instructed to kick back and enjoy the show as the United States’ federal government, energy grid, and industrial sector are rendered impotent by internal dissent, decay, and mismanagement. According to statements made by top-level informants and corroborated by leading Western terrorism experts, if seen through to its conclusion, al-Qaeda’s current plot could wreak far more damage than the events of 9/11.

In the past year, money transfers to al-Qaeda cells around the world have reportedly been accompanied by instructions to use the funds to outfit safe houses with the proper equipment to receive American cable news broadcasts and view top U.S. news websites, allowing terrorists to fully relish each detail of the impending demise of the last global superpower.

Additionally, FBI officials made public an internal al-Qaeda video today in which the terrorist organization’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri chillingly exhorts his followers to “take a load off” and “unwind” in the name of jihad, and really cherish the victory over their enemy.

... Al-Zawahiri, who is seen in the video reclining back in his chair, putting his feet up, and flipping on CNN, later shouts “Allahu Akbar!” when a story is aired about the decade-long trend of stagnant wages among American workers.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 12:10:41 AM »

They did not beat the virus, they have state-controlled media and everything is covered up, and useful idiots in these threads like vox_mundi spread their propaganda.

You really can't help yourself can you? The point could have been made about China without attacking a frequent commenter on this site.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 15, 2020, 03:27:36 AM »
On one hand we get people who say. Renewables are not an acceptable solution until we solve how to replace 100% of the grid. On the other hand some say the solutions to the last 10% are a waste until we get to 90%. I am probably overstating a bit but come on we are working on the last 10% now. So it will be ready.
For the crowd who say what is being done is not enough. I agree but we start where we are not where we want to be. I know everyone wants zero fossil fuel plants built right now as do I. Given the globe is not run by a single dictator it is a transition. A 15 years ago the only renewable energy projects were token publicity stunts. By 10 years ago wind was being built for mostly economic reasons. Wind started having an impact on generation then. Ten years ago solar was built for publicity and by individuals. By early 2019 it was being built primarily for economic reasons. Solar generation is starting to have an impact on generation now.
Many of you have been following renewable energy for decades and is still a fraction of fossil fuels. Until about 13 years ago in wind and 18 months ago in solar those projects were mostly publicity stunts. These numbers are for utility projects individual solar is not included.
My local coal plant shuts down one of two burners by the end of 2020. The original plan was to convert the coal burners to natural gas. Lately there has been talk of not converting to natural gas. Many coal plants have announced early retirements this year. While those shut downs are not immediate most are within the next five years.
90% of new capacity this year is renewable energy. Already the average capacity factor of Coal plants is approaching 50%. Individual coal plants tend to shut down when they get to that point. 
The graph is the monthly average in terra watthours averaged over a year. These are actual generation so not effected by capacity factors. The first approximately 20 TWH is hydro. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:43:44 PM »
Herd immunity is not evil, and implying that YOU should be spared from the virus as society carries on in your absence as it HAS TO FOR YOU TO SURVIVE is incredibly ELITEST and shows a disconnect from fellow humanity.

When I walked to Midtown in May, pedestrians were almost exclusively people of color who were ensuring the city carried on and continued functioning so people like those still cloistered inside could continue to do so.

Thought this might be in response to my comment where I called herd immunity evil so I will respond.

I am a white male, 64 years old, and go to work every day in one of the poorest communites in Chicago, comprised entirely of persons of color. (30% Hispanic, 70% black) I work for a not for profit that is working with community groups to bring development to a community that has suffered from decades of disinvestment. I've installed gardens, boarded up vacant buildings, connected small businesses to available resources, contributed to the revival of a rich tradition in art, routinely connect with the homeless along the commercial district and direct them to emergency services. As a white man, I have lived a life of privilege, the kind of privilege that all white men benefit from in the U.S. I decided to use the last 15 years of my professional life giving back to the city that I love.

And herd immunity which you are suggesting is the best approach will hurt the most those for whom you profess such concern, communities of color.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 26, 2020, 01:14:05 AM »
The Lancet: First nationally representative estimate of COVID-19 seroprevalence in the U.S. suggests few in the population developed antibodies in the first wave

Nation-wide cross-sectional analysis of U.S. patients receiving dialysis finds fewer than 10% of people had COVID-19 antibodies by July 2020, and fewer than 10% of those with antibodies had been diagnosed by antigen or PCR testing. *

Researchers say this representative population is ideal for studying the general spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. because these patients undergo monthly, routine blood draws and represent other similar COVID-19 risk factors such as age, non-white race, and poverty. * COVID-19 control efforts should prioritize minorities and people living in densely populated areas to prevent general community spread.

The first cross-sectional, nation-wide analysis of more than 28,000 patients on dialysis in the U.S. found that fewer than 10% of U.S. adults had COVID-19 antibodies as of July 2020 and fewer than 10% were diagnosed. Published today in The Lancet, the new study also shows higher COVID-19 infection rates among ethnic minorities and people living in lower-income, high density, urban areas - underling the need for COVID-19 public health efforts that prioritize these populations in order to prevent general community spread.

Researchers from Stanford University explain that patients on dialysis represent an important population to study general COVID-19 seroprevalence. These patients already undergo routine, monthly laboratory studies and represent similar risk factors to contracting COVID-19 as the general population, including age, non-white race, and poverty. Unlike community-based surveys, where a select group may show up for or agree to be tested and require a significant on-the-ground effort to launch, patients on dialysis are amenable to random sampling as part of their routine care.

The study follows previous findings from recent seroprevalence studies of highly affected countries and regions (e.g. Wuhan, China, and Spain), which have shown that despite the intense strain on resources and unprecedented excess mortality, rates of seroprevalence at the population level remain low. Other seroprevalence studies of the U.S. population have been restricted to regional hotspots, such as New York City.

... Findings showed that, compared to the majority non-Hispanic white population, people living in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods experienced a two- to four-times higher likelihood of COVID-19 infection (rates of COVID-19 infection were 11.3% to 16.3% in Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, compared to 4.8% in the majority non-Hispanic white population) while poorer areas experienced a two-times higher likelihood, and the most densely populated areas showed a 10-times higher likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.

In the study, researchers tested the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a randomly selected representative sample of 28,503 patients to provide a nationwide estimate of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the pandemic.  ... Accounting for the externally validated test sensitivity, seroprevalence ranged from 8.2% to 9.4% in the sampled population. Researchers estimated the SARS-CoV-2 standardized seroprevalence in the U.S. population to be approximately 9.3%. The authors also found significant regional variation from less than 5% in the western United States to greater than 25% in the northeast.

"This research clearly confirms that despite high rates of COVID-19 in the United States, the number of people with antibodies is still low and we haven't come close to achieving herd immunity. Until an effective vaccine is approved, we need to make sure our more vulnerable populations are reached with prevention measures," said study author Julie Parsonnet, MD, a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University.


A 'Climate Anomaly' Worsened World War I and the 1918 Flu Pandemic, New Research Suggests

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:18:46 AM »
New Navy Lab to Accelerate Autonomy, Robotics Programs

Over the past few years, the Navy has been hard at work building a new family of unmanned surface and underwater vehicles through a variety of prototyping efforts. It is now standing up an integration lab to enable the platforms with increased autonomy, officials said Sept. 8.

The Rapid Integration Autonomy Lab, or RAIL, is envisioned as a place where the Navy can bring in and test new autonomous capabilities for its robotic vehicles, said Capt. Pete Small, program manager for unmanned maritime systems.

... Robotics technology is moving at a rapid pace, and platforms will need to have their software and hardware components replaced throughout their lifecycles, he said. In order to facilitate these upgrades, the service will need to integrate the new autonomy software that comes with various payloads and certain autonomy mission capabilities with the existing nuts-and-bolts packages already in the unmanned platforms.

“We don’t want to have to reinvent all of the systems every time we have a new platform,” he said. “And so I don’t want to have to reinvent autonomy algorithms for every individual platform. I don’t want to have to reintegrate data and learning algorithms.”  ...


Navy’s New Unmanned Fleet Likely To Hunt Chinese & Russian Subs

A new report from the Hudson Institute points out that the current anti-submarine tactics and technologies are largely unchanged since the Cold War — and suggests ships like the new Medium Unmanned Surface Vessel, or MUSV, could play a key role in keeping watch on subs even before they push into the open ocean.

The thinking is those ships operating without a crew, or with just a few sailors aboard, will have to have the ability to control smaller underwater drones doing things like hunting for submarines or mines, while relaying that information back to a carrier strike group or Marine unit ashore hundreds or thousands of miles away.

These unmanned engagements tracking submarines should “prioritize suppression of submarines over destruction, based on lessons from the First and Second World Wars and the Cold War,” the report states. Drones in the sky could use small air-launched torpedoes or small depth charges to harass the subs, while the MUSVs “could close on the target submarine at acceptable risk and launch short-range standoff ASW weapons such as anti-submarine rockets” or other charges.

The command and control of these potential operations would combine human command with machine control, with maneuvers in contested waters remaining mostly automated, while humans would direct engagements when offensive operations kicked off.


Human/Autonomous System Interaction and Collaboration (HASIC): The keys to maximizing the human-agent interaction are: instilling confidence and trust among the team members; understanding of each member’s tasks, intentions, capabilities, and progress; and ensuring effective and timely communication. All of which must be provided within a flexible architecture for autonomy; facilitating different levels of authority, control, and collaboration.

Machine Perception, Reasoning and Intelligence (MPRI): Perception, reasoning, and intelligence allows for entities to have existence, intent, relationships, and understanding in the battle space relative to a mission.

Scalable Teaming of Autonomous Systems (STAS): Collaborative teaming is a fundamental paradigm shift for future autonomous systems. Such teams are envisioned to be heterogeneous in size, mobility, power, and capability. [hunter-killer packs]

Test, Evaluation, Validation, and Verification (TEVV): The creation of developmental and operational T&E techniques that focus on the unique challenges of autonomy, including state-space explosion, unpredictable environments, emergent behavior, and human-machine communication.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 21, 2020, 01:25:23 AM »
AstraZeneca, Under Fire for Vaccine Safety, Releases Trial Blueprints

Experts are concerned that the company has not been more forthcoming about two participants who became seriously ill after getting its experimental vaccine.

... experts noted that transverse myelitis is rare, diagnosed in only about one in 236,000 Americans a year. The trial in Britain involved only about 8,000 volunteers, a spokesman for the Oxford researchers said last month.

AstraZeneca revealed details of its large coronavirus vaccine trials on Saturday, the third in a wave of rare disclosures by drug companies under pressure to be more transparent about how they are testing products that are the world’s best hope for ending the pandemic.

Polls are finding Americans increasingly wary of accepting a coronavirus vaccine. And scientists inside and outside the government are worried that regulators, pressured by the president for results before Election Day on Nov. 3, might release an unproven or unsafe vaccine.

Experts have been particularly concerned about AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials, which began in April in Britain, because of the company’s refusal to provide details about serious neurological illnesses in two participants, both women, who received its experimental vaccine in Britain. Those cases spurred the company to halt its trials twice, the second time earlier this month. The studies have resumed in Britain, Brazil, India and South Africa, but are still on pause in the U.S. About 18,000 people worldwide have received AstraZeneca’s vaccine so far.

AstraZeneca’s 111-page trial blueprint, known as a protocol, states that its goal is a vaccine with 50 percent effectiveness — the same threshold that the Food and Drug Administration has set in its guidance for coronavirus vaccines. To determine with statistical confidence whether the company has met that target, there will have to be 150 people ill with confirmed coronavirus among participants who were vaccinated or received placebo shots..

... Dr. Topol said AstraZeneca’s plan, like those of Moderna and Pfizer, had a problematic feature: All count relatively mild cases of Covid-19 when measuring efficacy, which may hamper efforts to determine whether the vaccine prevents moderate or severe illness.

The company has released few details about the two cases of serious illness in its trial. The first participant received one dose of the vaccine before developing inflammation of the spinal cord, known as transverse myelitis, according to a participant information sheet for AstraZeneca’s vaccine from July. The condition can cause weakness in the arms and legs, paralysis, pain and bowel and bladder problems.

The case prompted a pause in AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials to allow for a safety review by independent experts. A company spokeswoman told the Times last week that the volunteer was later determined to have a previously undiagnosed case of multiple sclerosis, unrelated to the vaccine, and that the trial resumed shortly thereafter.

Transverse myelitis can sometimes be the first sign of multiple sclerosis, which involves more complex symptoms. But the myelitis alone can also occur after the body encounters an infectious agent like a virus

The company said it had not confirmed a diagnosis in the second case, a participant who got sick after the second dose of the vaccine. A person familiar with the situation who spoke with The Times on the condition of anonymity said the participant’s illness had been pinpointed as transverse myelitis. The trial was paused again on Sept. 6 after she fell ill.

“If there are two cases, then this starts to look like a dangerous pattern,” said Mark Slifka, a vaccine expert at Oregon Health and Science University. “If a third case of neurological disease pops up in the vaccine group, then this vaccine may be done.”

A participant information sheet dated Sept. 11 on AstraZeneca’s trial in Britain lumped the two volunteers’ cases together, stating the illnesses were “unlikely to be associated with the vaccine or there was insufficient evidence to say for certain that the illnesses were or were not related to the vaccine,” based on safety reviews. The next day, AstraZeneca announced that it had resumed the trial in Britain.

But the F.D.A. has so far not allowed the company to start up again in the United States.

A spokesman for the F.D.A. declined to comment. The National Institutes of Health said in a statement that it “remains to be seen” whether the onset of illness in trial participants was coincidental or tied to the vaccine, adding that “pausing to allow for further evaluation is consistent with standard practice.”

Dr. Mark Goldberger, an infectious disease expert at the Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership and a former F.D.A. official, said he found the rapid restarting of trials abroad to be “a little disturbing,” especially given the lack of details around the patients’ symptoms and the ambiguity around their connection to the vaccine. “Maybe this is the best they could do — it may not be possible to get more certainty at this time,” he said. “It is a question mark as to what’s going .

The company did not immediately inform the public about the neurological problems of either participant. Nor did it promptly alert the F.D.A. that it was again pausing its trials after the second U.K. volunteer developed illness and an independent safety board in the United States called for a temporary halt, according to multiple people familiar with the situation. The company’s chief executive told investors about the problems but did not discuss them publicly until the information was leaked and reported by STAT.

“The communication around it has been horrible and unacceptable,” said Dr. Peter Jay Hotez, a virologist with Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. “This is not how the American people should be hearing about this.”

Dr. Hotez also criticized obtuse statements released by government officials, including U.K. regulators who he said failed to supply a rationale for resuming their trials.

“Tell us why you came to that decision,” he said.

Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the F.D.A.’s advisory committee on vaccines, said that it’s unclear how the company — or the U.K. government — determined that the second case was not related to the vaccine.

Scientists want public confidence. The White House wants an October Surprise. The FDA wants to avoid looking political. Big Pharma wants a win. You’re in the middle.

AstraZeneca protocols

AstraZeneca internal report

Drug companies basically never try to push back against getting expedient approval of their products, because they’re for-profit businesses trying to sell stuff. Yet here they’re trying to distance themselves from politically motivated, unsafe Emergency Use Authorizations from the FDA.

Policy experts sometimes describe the process of industries controlling the agencies that oversee them through lobbying or other influence peddling as “regulatory capture.” Now the pharma companies seem to be worried about the direct inverse of that—political capture by leadership up the line that could threaten the market standing of the companies, not to mention the lives of their customers.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:47:16 PM »

Oceanbird Cargo Ship Relies On Wind to Transport Autos

... A Swedish company, Wallenius Marine, announced last week plans to build a sleek-looking wind-powered car and truck carrier ship that can haul 7,000 vehicles at a time. The ship, named Oceanbird, will sport five 260-foot retractable sails composed of metal and composite materials. The sails can be lowered to 66 feet to pass under bridges or accommodate changing wind conditions. Upon completion, the 650-foot-long, 130-foot-wide ship will hold the distinction of being the world's largest sailing vessel.

The Oceanbird can travel at an average speed of 10 knots. That is a bit slower than conventional vessels, but cruising with the wind means it can eliminate emissions by 90 percent.

... When asked why the company was willing to share so many details about construction of the ship, Tunell replied, "It is not a competition, but rather a direction we all need to take. By being transparent in the process, we want to inspire others to test the limit to what is possible… We need to make a change and it just can't wait anymore."

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:43:54 PM »
Airborne Wind Energy Company Closes Shop, Opens-Sources Patents

This week, a 13-year experiment in harnessing wind power using kites and modified gliders finally closes down for good. But the technology behind it is open-sourced and is being passed on to others in the field.

As of 10 September, the airborne wind energy (AWE) company Makani Technologies has officially announced its closure. A key investor, the energy company Shell, also released a statement to the press indicating that “given the current economic environment” it would not be developing any of Makani’s intellectual property either. Meanwhile, Makani’s parent company, X, Alphabet’s moonshot factory, has made a non-assertion pledge on Makani’s patent portfolio. That means anyone who wants to use Makani patents, designs, software, and research results can do so without fear of legal reprisal.

Not only is the company releasing its patents into the wild, it’s also giving away its code base, flight logs, and a Makani flyer simulation tool called KiteFAST.

Pulling Power from the Sky

Pulling Power recounts Makani’s story from its very earliest days, circa 2006, when kites like the ones kite surfers use were the wind energy harvester of choice. However, using kites also means drawing power out of the tug on the kite’s tether. Which, as revealed by the company’s early experiments, couldn’t compete with propellers on a glider plane.

What became the Makani basic flyer, the M600 Energy Kite, looked like an oversized hobbyist’s glider but with a bank of propellers across the wing. These props would first be used to loft the glider to its energy-harvesting altitude. Then the engine would shut off and the glider would ride the air currents—using the props as mini wind turbines.

Makani is also releasing online a free 1,180-page ebook (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) The Energy Kite

Efficiency: ... Wind turbines (in shallow water) fixed to the seabed might require 200 to 400 tons of metal for every megawatt of power the turbine generated. And floating deep-water turbines, anchored to seabed by cables, typically involve 800 tons or more per megawatt. Meanwhile, a Makani AWE platform—which can be anchored in even deeper water—weighed only 70 tons per rated megawatt of generating capacity.

Yet, according to the ebook, in real-world tests, Makani’s M600 proved difficult to fly at optimum speed. In high winds, it couldn’t fly fast enough to pull as much power out of the wind as the designers had hoped. In low winds, it often flew too fast. In all cases, the report says, the rotors just couldn’t operate at peak capacity through much of the flyer’s maneuvers.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:58:12 PM »
Israel to Revert Back to Full Lockdown as Coronavirus Cases Climb

Israel will return to a full lockdown on Friday in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus as the number of cases has continued to increase for months throughout the country.

The three-week lockdown will begin at 2 p.m., closing many businesses and limiting public gatherings. The move comes just hours before the beginning of the Jewish High Holidays when people usually attend religious services and gather with family and friends.

With average new daily infections now above 5,000, Israeli officials have said they lifted restrictions too early.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Thursday that additional measures may be needed to prevent hospitals in the country from being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients.

... Israel has confirmed 175,256 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic and 1,169 fatalities. It is currently reporting around 5,000 cases per day, making it one of the highest infection rates per capita in the world, according to the AP.


'Pandemic Fatigue' Leads to Resurgence of Coronavirus in Europe Where Cases Hit Fresh Records in France and Spain

France and Spain are now seeing more new cases every day than they did when the virus originally peaked in the spring.

"We have a very serious situation unfolding before us," said WHO's regional director for Europe, Dr. Hans Kluge.

...  "What is really worrying I think for us is that we're not only seeing an increase in the case numbers, but we're seeing an increase in the hospitalizations. We're seeing increases in ICUs."

... More than half of European countries have reported a greater-than-10% increase in cases in the past two weeks. Of those countries, seven have seen newly reported cases increase more than twofold in the same period."

... Intensive care units in hospitals in some parts of France are now nearing capacity, WHO's Van Kerkhove said Friday, adding that hospitalizations are doubling roughly every eight days in the United Kingdom.

"We haven't even started to hit the flu season yet so we're worried that these increasing numbers of hospitalization and ICU are really going to overburden an already burdened system," she said.

... "[France and Spain] are the cautionary tale of what happens if you don't have a sustained public health effort. This is not like a rainy day or like a hot day. This is like climate change. This is a generational pandemic," Dr. Thomas Tsai, health policy researcher at Harvard University, said. "If we're not actively ensuring that we're controlling the pandemic, the epidemic is not going to just burn out on the road."


New U.S. Cases Continue to Climb


'Largest Mass Fatality Incident' Ever in New York City

NEW YORK CITY (WABC) -- The number of deaths reported to New York City's Office of the Chief Medical Examiner more than doubled in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic gripped the nation's largest city, according to a new report from the mayor's office.

"COVID-19 tragically represents the largest mass fatality incident in modern NYC history," the report said.

There were 65,712 deaths reported to OCME in 2020, compared to 30,964 a year earlier.

"The number of deaths reported to OCME increased, corresponding to the surge in NYC deaths during the pandemic," the report said.

The number of cremation requests jumped by 10,000 from 2019. OCME responded to 27,863 cremation requests, up from 17,148 last year.

"This increase came about during the months of March through June, where OCME received 16,115 requests, a number that approached the entire Fiscal 2019 total," the report said. "This increase corresponds to the surge in deaths NYC experienced during the pandemic to date."


Complete Command Probe into USS Theodore Roosevelt COVID-19 Outbreak

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 29, 2020, 02:03:59 AM »
White House Installed OAN Reporter as FDA Spokesperson. She Lasted 11 Days

The Food and Drug Administration has ousted its controversial chief spokesperson, Emily Miller, following botched communications about using blood plasma as a potential COVID-19 treatment, according to multiple media reports.

Miller, who held the position for just 11 days, aggressively defended FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn this week after he grossly misstated benefits of the treatment during a press briefing last Sunday. In the briefing, President Trump announced that the FDA had authorized emergency use of the treatment, despite reports that experts at the National Institutes of Health objected, saying the evidence was too weak to justify use. Though Hahn apologized for his misstatements, controversy over the authorization continued, raising questions about the credibility of the FDA and the independence of Hahn.

But even without that fiasco, Miller’s presence at the agency was controversial, drawing further concern that the traditionally apolitical agency has been politicized by the Trump Administration.

The White House installed Miller, a right-wing activist, to the FDA August 17. Though she has no background in science or medicine, she was appointed to the position of assistant commissioner and chief spokesperson for the regulatory agency, a position that is typically filled by non-political civil servants.

Miller’s previous work included directing communications for Senator Ted Cruz’s re-election campaign and reporting for One America News, a right-wing cable channel that often dabbles in conspiracy theories and prominently supports Trump. As Stat news points out, Miller also worked as columnist for the Washington Times, where she published pieces with titles such as:  “New Obamacare ads make young women look like sluts.” In 2013, she published a book on gun rights titled, Emily Gets Her Gun: But Obama Wants to Take Yours.

According to anonymous senior agency officials who spoke with Stat, Miller’s appointment dispirited FDA staff.

Along with Miller’s ouster, the Department of Health and Human Services also terminated a contract with a public relations consultant who advised Hahn to apologize for his misstatements, according to the New York Times. The HHS told the Times that the termination decision was not related to Hahn’s statements or apology.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:52:44 PM »
There is currently no option for the transport of persons and goods (including food, clothing and shelter materials) by road (in particular the “last miles”) to reach most areas of the globe.  However, efforts can be made today to reduce environmental damage caused by that transport.  Eliminating exhaust emissions would reduce as much or more PM10 pollution than eliminating brake and tire wear.

Traffic related sources are a significant contributor of particulate matter, particularly in urban environments and major cities. Traffic related particles can be distinguished into: exhaust traffic related particles, which are emitted as a result of incomplete fuel combustion and lubricant volatilization during the combustion procedure, and non-exhaust traffic related particles, which are either generated from non-exhaust traffic related sources such as brake, tyre, clutch and road surface wear or already exist in the environment as deposited material and become resuspended due to traffic induced turbulence. ...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 11, 2020, 09:13:28 PM »
A flu?

Estimated Flu death in the US by year:

2015 51,000
2016 23,000
2017 38,000
2018 61,000

Confirmed C19 deaths in the US to date: 136,671 and counting

Evidence has been posted here that this is a severe undercount.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 10, 2020, 04:37:42 PM »

I stopped posting because of pure ass stupidity and anti-science lunacy of many of the posts that were being made on this forum. I had enormous respect for yοu personally and all of the work you have done in creating and supporting the importance of  arctic ice awareness and dangers of climate change.

But your posts on this topic make clear that you fallen into a deep dark hole of misinformation, denial and bullshit.

I’m done. You are a loon.

Now we wait to see just how many people have to die because of morons such as you.  Tragic.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 03:12:53 PM »
She didn't predict that. She said it was possible, but there is no way of telling, because there are still so many unknowns, on so many levels.

Qusetion (paraphrased): Do you have an IFR estimate?

Answer:"I think the epidemic has largely come and gone in this country, so it would be definitely less than 1/1000, probably closer to 1/10000."

You see the 'I think'? And can you post everything she says in that particular segment, instead of minequoting?

What's the problem with a lower IFR? Why does it have to be maximized? The data is still very incomplete and possibly faulty. That's why there's a lot of pushback from serious scientists, and I can guarantee you they aren't white supremacist Trumputin conspiracy theorists.

I suppose I should take her seriously but not literally? 

This conversation has gotten quite ridiculous.  You accuse everyone of inflating the severity of this crisis, then you promote sources that do the opposite. 

IFR is very likely greater than 0.5.  A much lower IFR means a different policy response is warranted.  Promoting a much lower IFR than reality corresponds to promoting, above honest appraisal, a policy response that is appropriate for that lower IFR.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 15, 2020, 08:52:59 PM »
Do you understand the difference between emissions and concentrations?

The level of emissions has decreased.  However, if the level of emissions is higher than the amount of sinks, the concentrations will still increase.

Decreasing emissions due to the Covid crisis are a silver lining in the awful cloud we're currently in.  However, they alone aren't enough to address the climate crisis.  We need to drastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gases we emit.  The Paris Accord goals were for 50% reduction by 2030 and 100% by 2050 to have a better than even chance of avoiding a temperature increase of 1.5C.  The reductions in emissions we've seen during the Covid crisis are closer to 8%.

The faster we get off of fossil fuels, the sooner emissions, and ultimately, concentrations of greenhouse gases will decline.

Cruise to Nowhere: Satellite Images Show Armadas Of Vacant Cruise Ships Huddling Together Out At Sea

Of all the industries that have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the cruise industry has probably been hit the hardest. Not only are their operations shut down, but they became the face of a global nightmare early on, with hulking pleasure ships being turned into floating prisons rife with infection. Now, according to satellite imagery and transponder tracking data, with no revenue and nowhere to go, cruise ships are seeking refuge in clusters out in the Caribbean and Atlantic, attempting to ride out a storm that they were never designed to handle.

Storing cruise ships in port is not a cheap proposition, nor is there enough space to accommodate them in traditional berths. Beyond that, the international crews that man these huge vessels are not allowed to step on land due to infection risk. With the vast majority of these ships flagged in relatively small and poor countries that have little capability to impact the situation, the only place for them to go is out to sea. And that's precisely where many of them have been.

One armada, in particular, off Coco Cay and Great Stirrup Cay — the former is owned by the Royal Caribbean cruise line and the latter is owned by the Norwegian cruise line — in the Bahamas is remarkably large.

All the blue dots are cruise ships

When we looked over a broader area, we noticed that there are multiple other little huddles of cruise ships that can be found throughout the Caribbean. More are anchored just off major embarkation points along the Florida coastline and elsewhere, as well. Overseas there are similar huddles of ships that spot the map.

... Although there are no passengers aboard these ships, some of which cost well over a billion dollars to build, there are plenty of people still on board. Much of their crews are literally trapped on these vessels.

As of May 5, there were over 57,000 crew members still aboard 74 cruise ships in and around US ports and the Bahamas and the Caribbean, according to the US Coast Guard. Many more hundreds were stuck on vessels elsewhere across the world's oceans. ... crew members have since been told that they're no longer considered working employees and they were paid out through the end of April.

... Few industries exist where such huge capital outlays can turn into equally large liabilities under these highly unique circumstances. Whereas air travel and hotels, both industries that are in great jeopardy, still serve a necessary service during a pandemic and during the economic recovery that hopefully follows, these decadent and hulking ships serve no purpose other than entertainment.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 07, 2020, 03:19:41 AM »
UK Study Finds Higher Risk of Virus Deaths for Ethnic Minorities

The risk of dying from coronavirus is "two to three times higher" for the UK's black and minority ethnic communities, according to an academic analysis of health service data.

The study, by University College London (UCL), finds the average risk of death for people of Pakistani heritage is 3.29 times higher, for a black African background it's 3.24 times higher and 2.41 times higher for Bangladeshi.

Black Caribbean communities are 2.21 times more at risk, and Indian groups 1.7 times. In contrast, the researchers find a lower fatality risk for white populations in England.

"Rather than being an equaliser, this work shows that mortality with COVID-19 is disproportionately higher in black, Asian and minority ethnic groups," says UCL's Delan Devakumar, the study's co-author.

"It is essential to tackle the underlying social and economic risk factors and barriers to healthcare that lead to these unjust deaths."


Brazil Hits New Daily Record for Novel Coronavirus Cases, Deaths

Brazil, one of the world's emerging coronavirus hot spots, is reporting a record number of cases and deaths with the health minister flagging the possibility of strict lockdowns in particularly hard-hit areas.

Official figures show 10,503 new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the last 24 hours, well above the previous record of 7,288 cases on April 30. There are 615 deaths, up from the previous record of 600 on Tuesday.

Health Minister Nelson Teich tells reporters for the first time that an increasing number of local authorities may have to institute "lockdowns," as the coronavirus growth curve does not appear to be flattening. He is not naming any specific cities or states.

While authorities have ordered non-essential services and businesses closed in most states, residents are still allowed to circulate. A lockdown, which so far has only been implemented in the city of Sao Luis in the country's northeast, prohibits people from leaving their homes except for certain necessary activities.

Teich's comments stand in stark contrast to comments over the past two months from President Jair Bolsonaro, who has called the virus a "little flu" and criticised business shutdowns ordered by governors as more damaging to the country's economy than the virus itself.

Teich took office last month as virus cases started surging in Brazil. He pledged to save both lives and the economy and said at the time that he and Bolsonaro saw eye to eye.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 02:24:40 AM »
Here is why Jacinda Ardern is one of my heroes.

New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it.

It is possible to beat this virus. Doing so requires wisdom and diligence. New Zealand is now one of the few success cases.

The US due to the actions of many though not all the States has greatly reduced the growth rates. New York and Washington in particular have made great strides. These are as yet far from success. But they are better. That shows up as the current confirmed infection count now being five days behind my projection based on the rates two weeks ago. Those rates will likely slow more.

However, this is only a slowing. This is in no way success. Once the people tire enough of the restrictions and begin to venture out more, the viral transmission will again rise. This will cause the infections to continue for the long term, requiring ongoing shelter in place for month after month after month, destroying the economy in the process. And the longer this goes on, the greater the chance that the virus mutates into an even more virulent and/or an even more lethal form.

If this problem is to be solved, either solutions like those used in China, New Zealand, or possibly South Korea (though that is less successful), OR herd immunity will be required. Achieving herd immunity while not overwhelming the hospitals means that we stay under the current restrictions for at least another year, and possibly as long as two years. That means economic suicide for businesses large and small, for individuals, and for the nation.

Worse though, achieving herd immunity means that a tremendous number of our neighbors will sicken and die.

Just how long will it take our moron in chief to understand this? That’s a rhetorical question. He is entirely incapable of ever understanding or accepting that. Neither is he able or likely willing to understand the necessity of following the path Jacinda has lain out. Moreover, there is no way in hell that he will follow a woman’s lead. So we are stuck here until he is out of office. And that means an ongoing large death toll month after month until then.


.... and it begins.

A ‘Liberty’ Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders

Stupid is as stupid does.     This is why we can’t have nice things.

But then on the success side of the ledger...

China lifts 76-day lockdown on Wuhan as city reemerges from coronavirus crisis

Eleven weeks of lockdown - then recovery.

Addenda: This is not going to resolve as Dr. Fauci thinks or wants to optimistically believe. He is being foolish or self-deluded. This bug is as contagious as Chicken Pox. If we fail to eradicate it or totally contain it, it will immediately come roaring back. This is an extremely dangerous biosafety level 3 agent.

Under current strategies. Schools will not reopen in the fall. Neither will businesses.

The models are wrong in showing a peak then a decline to zero. They only go to zero, because the modelers included on-going highly effective controls in their models. You only get a decline to zero if you achieve herd immunity, or you maintain conditions that prevent transmission sufficiently to accomplish the same AND you do extensive contact tracing and isolation BEFORE releasing controls. Do anything less and it comes right back.

Worse, we do not yet know how long immunity to this bug lasts. The history from SARS1 suggests two years on average with a weak immunity in year three. But, some people exhibit a weaker immune response and can contract it again almost immediately.

This thing is not going to just “be around” as Dr. Fauci suggests, it is a violent virulent predator waiting for us to let our guard down in the least to devour people and ravage the nation - again.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: March 11, 2020, 02:35:59 AM »
VW is putting “digital cockpits” in their new car designs.  So even they agree with Tesla’s approach.

“The digital cockpit will operate using both touchscreens and intuitive voice commands.”

What Tesla did was to remove many of the intuitive tactile controls provided by VW (and every other manufacturer)...
And this is exactly what VW is doing — omitting buttons and knobs from their new models.  As the quoted article states!
...then herald this removal as an advance, rather than as a cheaper, less safe alternative.
And this is exactly what VW is doing.
Your anti-Tesla bias blinds you from seeing this is happening throughout the industry. Wake up!

Tesla also offered faux leather seats as an improvement over leather.
Tesla offers vegan leather due to years of customer and shareholder requests for non-leather alternatives in its cars.  Responsibility and Sustainability — the same reasoning why the thin piece of wood (used in one of the dashboard veneer choices) comes from sustainable forests, rather than rare woods used by other manufacturers.  VW in particular has a storied history of cruelty to animals, and human deaths from their products’ emissions, so of course animal slaughter is no problem for them.  Other OEMs have a mixed history on the subject.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 17, 2020, 10:53:06 AM »
We should not be worry about China .
We should be concerned with cases out side of China.
Even more concerning is regions  that are reporting statistically less cases than we should reasonable expect.

For good or ill, we now live in a hyper-connected just-in-time multi-national world. What happens in any country quickly affects every other country through that web of dependencies.

So far, the world has seemed insulated from the shock of the virus spread in China. That is a false perception.  In reality, the interdependent chains have already broken. The lag time in the system just hasn’t quite yet been exhausted.

We have seen the first impacts with tourism and travel. Then with small package delivery. All of that is just inconvenient.

Inside China the disruptions have been enormous. With their command economy, those impacts are also not immediately apparent, though they are now becoming apparent.

For international trade, the ships are now idle. The last deliveries have been made or soon will be. The entire cost structure for shipping has now collapsed. Soon, the supply chains will run dry for parts essential to all sorts of products and industries. Replacements are difficult or non existent. It isn’t now a simple matter of cost competition. Stuff just isn’t being made and isn’t available. The whole basis for free market substitution just had piles of rocks and acid thrown into the gears.

That will be hard to restart too.

The financial markets have not as yet recognized the severity of the disruption. There have been localized impacts, especially in China. The big shocks are yet to come.

When those hit, markets globally will be rocked. That means layoffs and job losses. That means huge stock price and commodity impacts. And those will go in every direction. Suppliers, particularly of food stuffs, have lost markets. At the same time, buyers in those markets have no supplier.

As the markets get rocked by that, leaders will no doubt try to prioritize restoring those markets. But that means people going to work, which means spreading disease. Etc...

What happened in China will not stay in China, even if the borders were sealed and no disease escaped. But it did escape, as nations were slow to respond, and slower yet to understand what it takes to stop a pandemic. The chances are very high that the spread was delayed and not stopped, and once the disease begins to explode in South Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas, that issues related to freedom and money will subvert efforts to stop the spread.

We already see aspects of that with passengers on cruise ships failing to understand how critical it is that they -not- be allowed back into their own countries until they are assuredly free of disease. They see their personal liberties and financial welfare as paramount. And there are important factors there. But in their personal quest, they put at risk quite literally everyone. There are no easy answers here. And there will be unfairness and injustice.

In China we see things in videos that we have no context for. These appear at least to be egregious violations of personal rights. That may or may not be true. We lack context. But we are or tend to be very quick to jump to conclusions. And no matter what is actually happening (good or ill), there is the larger context of the out of control rapid spread of a highly fatal disease. No decisions here are going to be easy. Some will be very harsh. I do not mean that to justify injustice. Injustice is wrong. In the chaos of catastrophe, just as in war, extremely bad things happen - just or not. And that does not excuse them, or minimize them.

It also is not a basis to grind old axes or animosities, or to exercise racism or xenophobia. This didn’t happen because of an economic system. Neither would a different economic system have fared better. Arguably, the command structure of government and economy in China is all that allowed the extremely rapid response. In other countries those could not occur, and as a result, the explosive spread of the virus would have gone unchecked.

This didn’t happen because of race, creed or belief. This is a disease doing what diseases do. Racism, xenophobia, classism, idealism and the rest have no useful place here. They only serve to distract us from dealing with the disease and it’s attendant impacts on and in every other aspect of society. They can and already have caused horrible negative impacts of their own. They have misled and distracted leaders from thinking clearly and acting correctly and decisively. We have to minimize those disruptions. We must be clear headed.



Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 12, 2020, 06:35:03 PM »
"Yet the environmentalists don't seem to realise that the first impacts of the liveable biosphere breakdown won't be humans.  It will be animals."

Congratulations for winning "The Stupidest Thing I Have Read On ASIF For A Long Time" award!

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 17, 2020, 11:59:45 PM »
I have spent the last five years introducing climate change to my now 11 year old.
I did it slowly because it is an unpleasant topic.
I also homeschool my kids, so they avoid the propaganda being spouted in Australian schools.

Sometimes he because despondent about life, but for the most part a few things have happened.

1 - he is very pissed off with the Govt inaction. He has been to multiple protests about climate change and will be doing more the older he gets.
2 - he wants to see as much of the world as possible to document the changes. But he will only travel by bike, foot or boat.
3 - we debate every purchase based on environmental impact. This is a total pain in the ass to be honest because according to him we should be living in a self container farm, we cant do that at the moment.
4 - his approach to life is fairly basic.... he has made an assumption based on reading and gut instinct that our civilization only has ten years left. So he has mapped out his life to only be ten years long. Which sound depressing except that his plans involve doing as much as possible in those ten years in terms of climate, doing things like seeing the Barrier Reef, in fact a lot more than some people people do in a life time. Every year he spends the first week updating the ten year plan.
5 - while he gets upset with what is coming, it has lit a fire in his belly as well.

To me, based on what other kids who have good knowledge of climate change, most of them get depressed at some point, then anrgy, then motivated. I suspect this is the case more and more often. In the coming ten years, I suspect there will be an explosion of youth activism and demands that will need to be met or the older generations are going to get booted off the power structure.

After the fires, I have been informed that we are doing a bike tour of SE Australia to take photos, talk to people and document it to share with the public. His concern is that after the fires are out, the spin doctors will ensure we forget about it..... it has happened too many times here already. Too many times to list in fact.
He wants to do something to remind people that this is not a one off event, it is one of a series of events that are worsening year on year.

So, personally, I dont stress how it affects the kids, I only stress that we have left it too late to get angry enough to demand the changes of our Govts and take massive, radical, personal action.
I know my son thinks we dont do enough, and we ride bikes, eat bugger all meat, have a tiny car for my wife to get to work because there is no public transport at 5am in the morning and the car only gets used for work. (12km each way) and more.

Give kids the information, be blunt about it, make a plan they control, then watch the change happen. Greta is only the beginning of youth activism.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 29, 2019, 04:22:14 PM »
Let me add to the discussion, no one should pay for the grid directly. It should be financed by the public hand (i.e. tax money).

You could rent it out in a non-profit way to whoever wants to use it. This way it would not even cost the tax payer anything long term.

The grid is, as a core piece of our infrastructure, a public good! Why should it produce billionaires by artificially having it a commodity?

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 05, 2019, 12:29:05 AM »
The world is the shape it is today because of centuries of progress.  It will not just change to something else because we deny ourselves the fruits of that progress.  It will change to something else by using the fruits of that progress to go forward to a better world.

Yes, that something else will be 3 to 4 °C of warming. For starters.

A retrograde society stagnates and stagnated evolution is pruned by nature pretty quickly.  If you could find a talking Dodo, they could explain it to us.

Dodo explains: Homo sapiens exterminated us.

I know I'm living in Austria, and so I should shut up. I also don't know a poor man who couldn't bike to work, and so praise Tesla SUVs. But my problem is not with your viewpoint, my problem is that it isn't your viewpoint. It's conditioned, regurgitated, unimaginative thought that you are just repeating like the obedient schoolboy you have been all your life (and taght your children to be as well). That's how we got here.

And now you're fighting for that conditioned thought to remain dominant, even though the numbers show you where it'll lead to: 3 to 4 °C warming, for starters. And numbers are supposed to be your forte. I guess you expect your offspring will be useful enough to concentrated wealth to be allowed to enter Elysium.

Why don't you go to some forum for old folks who think neoliberalism is the god that ended all gods, and complain about stupid, radical, ungrateful young people there? Hail the system, our benefactor, and may it live forever, and all that.

We already live in a retrograde, stagnated society. We've been living in it for decades and it won't change into 'something else', unless systemic, radical changes are implemented. You may not like that, but that's because you're old and your brain is too conditioned to adapt. Support the young, instead of keeping them down, and maybe one day they'll forgive you.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: September 28, 2019, 11:11:10 PM »

Terry ::)

It’s almost as though you don’t understand the lengthy NASA, FAA, FCC et al. certification process, let alone the logistics of scheduling additional vehicles and crew versus the supplies and docking ports available on the ISS.

I'm not even expected to understand. :) Mr. Musk on the other hand is, and should be expected to have some knowledge of the process. :(


So show me someone else who has done it faster — in fact, any commercial company that has done it at all!  That’s right, you cannot. No one has. 

When you are doing things that have never been done before, it’s impossible to know what problems will arise.

Refer to the meme above with all of SpaceX’s firsts.  To doubt they will accomplish manned space flight in short order is ridiculous.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« on: August 10, 2019, 01:04:06 AM »
The Trump Administration Killed a Self-Driving Car Committee — and Didn’t Tell Members

An all-star team of transpo bigwigs had just one meeting before the DOT went radio silent

The Trump administration quietly terminated an Obama-era federal committee on automation in transportation earlier this year, the Department of Transportation confirmed to The Verge this week. What’s more, the DOT never informed some members that the advisory group didn’t exist anymore, including Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, Zipcar founder Robin Chase, Apple vice president Lisa Jackson, and even the committee’s own vice chair, The Verge has learned.

... The group was brought together “to serve as a critical resource for the Department [of Transportation] in framing federal policy for the continued development and deployment of automated transportation,” according to its landing page on the DOT’s website.

The committee held its lone meeting on January 16th, 2017, four days before Trump’s inauguration. The DOT never called the committee to meet again, and the press release detailing it was scrubbed from the DOT’s website sometime around April of this year, according to the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.

The committee’s dissolution comes at a critical moment in the development of automated vehicles in the United States. During the two-plus years that it sat dormant, multiple companies have rolled out small commercial fleets of automated vehicles that perform a variety of tasks. Big money is pouring into some of the most visible companies in the space. And there’s been a human cost, too: one of Uber’s prototype autonomous vehicles killed a pedestrian in Arizona in 2018, and at least two people were killed while using Tesla’s Autopilot suite of driver assistance systems.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 08, 2019, 10:22:11 PM »
Back-to-Back Low Snow Years Will Become More Common, Study Projects

Consecutive low snow years may become six times more common across the Western United States over the latter half of this century, leading to ecological and economic challenges such as expanded fire seasons and poor snow conditions at ski resorts, according to a study.

... For 2050 to 2079, the average frequency of consecutive snow droughts—years with low snowpack—rose from 6.6 percent to 42.2 percent across Western mountains. The authors defined snow drought as low snowpack conditions that historically occurred one out of every four years. These changes were greatest in Sierra Nevada and Cascades and the lower elevations of the northern Rockies.

"Throughout the Inland Northwest including northern and central Idaho, we expect to see a real increase in consecutive snow droughts," Marshall said. "The droughts will likely occur in the lower elevation ranges that historically received a decent amount of snow that is now falling as rain."

The study also projects year-to-year variability of peak snowpack across the West will decrease, mostly in areas transitioning from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation. In addition, the timing of yearly peak snowpack is predicted to occur earlier and across a broader range of months. Snowpack historically peaked in April, but 2050 to 2079 projections predict more peak snowpacks in March or earlier.

Adrienne M. Marshall et al, Projected changes in interannual variability of peak snowpack amount and timing in the Western United States, Geophysical Research Letters (2019)

Sorry to have missed some of this, but the game has come along quite a bit.

Here's a website that has my developer blog as well as some images from the game.  I have the "Oregon Trail" part of the game running and am rolling in the visual novel and information aspects of the game.  See more at:

Some screens:

Thank you.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 12:01:17 AM »
edit: I've just seen the ECMWF forecast and it looks pretty terrible indeed. Anything above 1030 hPa around this time of year, is a disaster for the ice. I'll post the latest forecast this evening.
Can you explain why you say it's bad in reference a pressure? I understand Pa refers to a Pascal. I'm an engineer, and the importance of air pressure rather than temperature is not obvious to me.

High pressure indicates subsidence. This inhibits cloud formation which means that the Arctic regions underneath the high will receive more incoming shortwave radiation.

Seriously? You have to throw the word subsidence in there instead of an actual explanatory few words?

Hi HelloMeteor. Welcome to the site.

Actually answered the question pretty succinctly. I've been here for about 7 years and still find myself having to google terms to understand what some type here. Might be better to try this rather than ridiculing someone trying to answer your question.

Actually googled subsidence before I typed this.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: May 06, 2019, 11:31:03 AM »
Winter Weather Window Is Costing Rapeseed Growers Millions

UK rapeseed growers are losing up to a quarter of their crop yield each year because of temperature increase during an early-winter weather window. 

Based on analysis of climate and yield data, the team calculate that temperature variation during this critical time window can lead to losses of up to £160 million in the UK rapeseed harvest—about 25 percent of the total value.

"The study shows that chilling of the crop in winter is really important for the development of a high yield. But it's not just winter in general, it's a specific time from late November and through December. Our data showed that even if its colder in January and February, it doesn't have the same effect on yield."   

"If you ask farmers why they don't grow more rapeseed, they usually say it's too unreliable," says Professor Penfield. "The data in our study clearly shows temperature is having a direct effect on UK agriculture productivity."

Penfield,, Yield instability of winter oilseed rape modulated by early winter temperature, Scientific Reports (2019)


Banana Disease Boosted by Climate Change

A new study, by the University of Exeter, says changes to moisture and temperature conditions have increased the risk of Black Sigatoka by more than 44% in these areas since the 1960s.

International trade and increased banana production have also aided the spread of Black Sigatoka, which can reduce the fruit produced by infected plants by up to 80%.

"This research shows that climate change has made temperatures better for spore germination and growth, and made crop canopies wetter, raising the risk of Black Sigatoka infection in many banana-growing areas of Latin America." 

Straw-men arguments burn up faster than a car does ... EV or ICE. :D

Really?  What was straw man about what I posted?  Fossil Fuels represent a real danger to both the vehicle in question plus any vehicles within the possible spread of the fuel.  Witness the accident I linked.  Li is not quite so dangerous in that way.  It was not the battery which set the other vehicles up, it was the furiously burning vehicle itself. Something which is technology agnostic, cars burn if ignited.

If you had read the links I posted you would see there are 50,000 vehicle fires in the US for every EV fire.  Yet there were, in mid 2018, only 260 times as many registered vehicles in the US that were not plug in EV.

Which means that, relatively, for each EV that goes up in flames, 192 other vehicles burn.  So you have a 191 times less chance of going up in flames with an EV than you do with any other vehicle.

Which straw man was I putting up?  Perhaps we can stop pointing fingers every time an EV goes up in flames.  Every time any vehicle goes up in flames, there is a chance that it was due to owner error.  A lit cigarette doesn't care what fuel the vehicle is, it will burn it to cinders anyway.

Do you know of anyone over 10 years old who has forgotten such an obvious fact of life?

Everyone who tries to make political points by sensationalising the obvious point that 100kwh of power can combust when it is shorted.  Without comparing it to the equally obvious fact that we already have a far more dangerous fuel system on the road in billions of cars.

As for the Tesla taking a few cars with it?  Naturally a furiously burning car, right next to other cars, will cause the others to combust.  But, tell me, did it explode, raining burning fuel on the other vehicles?  Of course it didn't, because whilst Li batteries may burn extremely hot and be difficult to extinguish, they don't explode.  I have watched the process in great detail when I managed to short a mobile phone battery when removing it (punctured the flimsy aluminium cover).

We shouldn't forget that shrubs thrive (relative to trees as explained in the linked reference) in relatively cold regions, and there continued expansion into the tundra decreases albedo & thus increases Arctic Amplification:

Treml et al. (2019), "Differences in growth between shrubs and trees: How does the stature of woody plants influence their ability to thrive in cold regions?", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,

Shrubs can be found far above or beyond cold tree limits. However, the mechanisms shrubs employ to thrive at sites not allowing the development of trees remain poorly understood. We hypothesize that shrubs are advantaged over trees thanks to: (i) their low stature reflected in a better thermal environment; (ii) differences in temperature thresholds of wood formation; and (iii) a shorter period of wood formation in the slender stems of shrubs with narrow cells compared to tree stems with large cells. We studied wood formation of Picea abies (trees) and Pinus mugo (shrubs) growing on the same site in the treeline ecotone of the Krkonoše Mts in the Czech Republic. We measured air temperature near tree (shrub) tops, stem temperature and soil temperature in the root zone. In addition, we determined the number of cells in individual phases of wood phenology. We then computed the duration of individual wood-phenology phases and temperature thresholds for the onset of wood formation. Our results show that in the growing season, shrubs experience higher amplitude of air and stem temperatures compared to trees. Mean growing season air and stem temperatures are similar between the two growth forms whereas mean soil temperatures are lower for shrubs because their dense canopies shade the ground. Temperature thresholds for wood formation are either similar (3 °C for soil temperature, onset of cell division) or greater by 1.2–2.6 K (onset of cell enlargement) for P. mugo shrubs than for P. abies trees, depending on the temperature metrics considered. Although we found ambiguous differences in the onset of wood formation, this was completed earlier in P. mugo than in P. abies, leading to a generally shorter growing period of shrubs (103 days) than trees (125 days). In conclusion, the main advantage of shrubs over trees resides in the earlier completion of wood formation and thus a shorter growing season. Trees with wide cells at stem base require more time for cell differentiation and maturation than shrubs with narrow cells. Other differences are either of lesser importance (the ambient thermal environment) or probably species-specific (temperature thresholds for wood formation).

Edit: I also not that the continuing expansion of digging creatures (like ground squirrels, etc.) into the tundra (with continued warming) accelerates permafrost degradation and thus also contributes to increasing Arctic Amplification.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 29, 2018, 09:02:39 PM »
I think most climate scientists would accept that as the Arctic warms there will be an increase in the Arctic methane flux from a variety of sources (terrestrial permafrost, lakes, etc.)

I think most climate scientists would reject the idea of a "methane bomb" in the sense of a very sudden (decade or less) release of a large volume of methane.  What is released will be spread out over centuries and thus have time to oxidize to CO2 along the way.

It is OK if people choose to believe something that most climate scientists would reject.  But you should understand what the consensus actually is, and be conscious that you're choosing to follow a small minority that disagrees with the consensus.  And you should not let that disagreement turn into contempt for scientists or accusations of bad faith.

That's what happens at WUWT.  People don't just politely disagree with the consensus, they (a) exaggerate the amount of disagreement among scientists, and (b) accuse mainstream, consensus scientists of being idiots or dishonest. 

Don't be like that.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 19, 2018, 12:07:59 AM »
GSY wrote:  “The cheapest Tesla delivered so far is about $60k. The say they want to sell $25k version, but why wouldn't they say that.”

Excellent (rhetorical) question!
If Tesla really were the carmaker “for rich people only” that those who denigrate it claim it to be, the company most certainly would not propose a $25k version.  Most luxury carmakers would not be caught dead offering an inexpensive model that would tarnish their brand.  But Tesla can do it, because they are primarily about innovation and advancing sustainability for as many people as possible.

Well Tesla has shown they can't make money selling rich people cars, even with $7,500 from the government. So now they have to claim to be about to do something else, otherwise it would be obvious what a ponzi scheme the whole thing is. 

Someone was nice enough to put a doc together with all the times Tesla execs have talked about being within a year of profitability. Goes back 7 years. Can you stomach reading it? I doubt it.

1). The $7,500 doesn’t go to Tesla, it goes to the customer! :o (If the person qualifies.)
2). Tesla has made plenty of money — average over 20% gross profit margin on each car.  The fact that they use it to finance their growth and not on making their balance sheet prettier is a foreign concept to many.  Don’t feel bad.
3). Critics have been claiming Tesla will be bankrupt “in six months” every quarter for those seven years.  Can you count the number of times they have been correct?

Bbr2314  Treating people like they're idiots and suggesting strongarm state government actions will get you more Donald Trump . Do you ever go stand up in public meetings or participate in public forums where you don't get to hide behind anonymity?

In addition to this new paper, New Yorker Magazine has a full issue on climate change and the decade we had a chance to do something about it. Losing Earth.
Wonder how much carbon has been wasted in printing the New Yorker and how much conspicuous consumption has been induced by the advertising within... a total joke

NYT Magazine, actually.  It's a good article.  My copy came to me with less CO2 emissions than my own breathing, advertising included.  I didn't purchase anything.  Definitely not a waste of CO2 emissions.
Advertising doesn't work that way but good for you for consuming carbon-wasting paper media ;)

The server that manages this forum consumes a lot of power, (still mostly produced by fossil fuels?)

Anyway, mealy-mouthed comments are hardly a great contribution as to the worth or otherwise of the paper. I found it useful, a reminder that AGW has many strands - not just CO2 emissions.

And I love books - the ones you hold in your hand instead of a piece of plastic and electronics called a kindle.

And - how the hell will the Public at large get exposed to the issues raised and considered in this forum without the help of the mainstream media ?

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 09, 2018, 09:34:39 PM »
Please relax the mud-slinging a bit. Sometimes it feels that the ASIF is one of those places becoming less livable.  :(

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: June 03, 2018, 05:32:06 PM »
While nature's methods for addressing imbalances can be cruel (pestilence, disease, starvation), it is this ruthless behavior that is the source of my optimism about the future of the planet. We are the single largest imbalance in nature and we will be dealt with. The only question is whether the approaching calamity will drive us to extinction. I still think there is a good chance humans survive. It just won't be pretty and the numbers that get through the "Great Winnowing" will be shockingly small. For the wealthy elite, I have some bad news. Your wealth and status is dependent on the system that is driving us to the brink. The skill set you have will be of no use in our inevitable future and you and yours will be early casualties.

For anyone who would like to understand the source of my perspective about many issues on this wonderful blog, all you need do is contemplate the meaning of my nym. We share this planet, have a common fate. Any effort we make to attempt to distinguish ourselves from those around us (wealth, social status, faith, ethnicity, nationality, race etc.) is nothing but a construct that will melt away in times of peril. This perspective is also the source of our salvation. The sooner we recognize our shared humanity, the sooner we can get down to the work of saving ourselves.

For the record, I am not a religious man.

Pages: [1]