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Messages - mabarnes

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 24, 2020, 05:09:12 AM »
It's back, sorry for the lack of colors ...
Thank you, mabarnes.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 21th, 2020:
     11,849,066 km2, an increase of 35,957 km2.
December 22th, 2020:
     11,908,651 km2, an increase of 59,585 km2.

December 23th, 2020:
     11,959,910 km2, an increase of 51,259 km2.
     2020 is now 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 05:13:13 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.
Moderation in this forum now caters to the lowest common denominator instead of posters like you and A-Team who provide coherent original thought. It is hardly any wonder that repetitive regurgitations of numbers available elsewhere are dominating the discussion and drowning out actual constructive discourse. Very sad, hopefully Neven comes back soon!
<Discussion of moderation belongs to the Forum Decorum thread. O>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 05:09:56 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 11:47:21 PM »
I am overwhelmed and touched by the generosity of spirit of so many of you.

The fund has reached its goal.

I hope you will see me posting again pretty soon.

Thanks again,


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 09:42:40 AM »
Can't quite understand the comments from wdmn and off the grid.
Simply reported on an updated report from a reputable source
Thought readers might be interested in their findings.
Melting fever affects many commentors at this time of year, and particularly when things are looking bad for the ice. One of the symptoms is a curious intolerance of discordant views.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 22, 2020, 05:40:04 AM »

One of my fave songs from a fave band back when I wasn't old & decrepit. (hope this is the right thread)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2020, 01:51:57 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,395,557 km2(March 5, 2020)

With sea ice extent losses in the last 2 days of 52 k, now is the season for speculating on whether the maximum has been reached. However, this is the thread for data for all of 2020. In my extremely unhumble opinion, speculation on the date of maximum belongs on the 2019-290 freezing season thread.

- Extent LOSS on this day 40 k, 42 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 2 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,431 k, 761 k (7.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,670 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 537 k more than 2017
- Extent is 351 k more than 2019
- Extent is 324 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 98.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 5 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.


Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.57 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.2 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:33:55 AM »
On behalf of Juan's not working Excel programme here the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent data for Feb 28, 2020, sorted by value:
  1. 2018 13.73 M km²
  2. 2017 13.75 M km²
  3. 2015 13.82 M km²
  4. 2011 13.91 M km²
  4. 2019 13.91 M km²
  6. 2006 13.92 M km²
  7. 2016 13.94 M km²
(-) 2010s 14.02 M km²
  8. 2014 14.03 M km²
  9. 2007 14.10 M km²
10. 2010 14.24 M km²
11. 2005 14.25 M km²
12. 2012 14.34 M km²
13. 2020 14.35 M km²
14. 2013 14.51 M km²
15. 2009 14.57 M km²
16. 2004 14.60 M km²
(-) 2000s 14.64 M km²

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January 2020)
« on: February 05, 2020, 03:25:12 PM »
This person always does "have use for the updated regional data files" from Wipneus:

PIOMAS Volume as at 31 January 2020  18,283 km3

The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

Volume gain in January well above average.

2019 volume is now 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- 2,123 km3 above 2017,
-    715 km3 above 2018,
and less than 2019 by 334 km3.

Not really a surprise that volume gain in January was mostly above average, given the similar story for both area and extent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 26, 2020, 06:09:17 PM »
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 01, 2020, 05:03:19 AM »
Thank you, Mabarnes and MrGreeny, for your posts.
Happy 2020 everybody!!!  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 31st, 2019:
     12,354,510 km2, an increase of 67,145 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 25, 2019, 07:27:58 AM »
Dec 24 & 25 JAXA Extent back up, or now up, or ... here they are:

Dec 23 - 11,985,836    - gain of 122,375
Dec 24 - 12,064,159    - gain of   78,323

A cold wind from Santa's sleigh to the ice...?  Merry Christmas!
Thank you for your post, mabarnes.  :)
Merry Christmas!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 24st, 2019:
     12,064,159 km2, an increase of 78,323 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:30:26 AM »
Let me know when you stay away from the pot and the drinks for long enough.
I try to restrict my drinking to ones every 2 weeks, but when I drink, I drink hard, and I can be an ashole sometimes when I'm in a bad mood...

My apologies for my bad behavior the other day!

Aww, thank you Mabarnes!  :D

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:10:14 PM »

JAXA daily extent loss in the last 2 weeks very much below average and on this day up from a -0k extent loss to a below average 11k extent loss. Definitely not a one-off - this is an event.
Given that Arctic temperature anomalies have been consistently above average and that SSTs have been and are very high, this two week stall in extent (and now area) loss is a complete mystery to me.

Gerontocrat - I've been keeping an eye on the ENSO index all year, about every day (for a side bet, the usual amount) ... I know the local temperatures seem contra-intuitive as you mentioned, but on a simple "seems" basis, it seems like the heat just shut off as insolation dropped latter half of August, and I can't help but notice the ENSO faded almost in unison with the melt stall.

Correlation implying Causation?  Yeah I know, but as a data-driven scientist (day job), it makes me take note.  So here's my question for an experienced ice tracker - the big melt came from the Pacific side ... so could that be what's "missing" from the late melt, Pacific heat...?  Curious what you think, as I said, I'm rank novice newbie to ice analysis.  Thanks.
I can see evidence for Arctic Sea Ice losses not being above average.
What I can't see (given +ve SST and air temp anomalies) is the evidence to show why area and extent losses should be so much below average (with unusual increases on occasion).

But there is anything between 10 and 25 days left in which to chew our fingernails and watch our pet theories/speculations crash and burn.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:02:36 PM »
As long as the methodology of PIOMAS is consistent, it should be fine for comparison.  The operative comparison is not between model and reality, it's between model and previous years' model results. The r-squared ain't that bad. eh. 

Usually that's what most of us would say but in this case I disagree because conditions, especially the state of the ice so so entirely different and has been changing over the last few years so much, that, even though the methodology remained the same, it won't produce a a comparable result IMO.

Almost half of the remaining ice is at around 25-75% concentration and the thickness is the big question mark that is responsible for most of the shortcomings of current volume measurement methods.

This means that the error margin has "increased", it's not static and therefore we cannot really compare at this time of the year, that might be different during the winter (freezing season where the gap between algorithms and reality is way smaller, no melt ponds, fractures are either filled with ice or very much distinguished as leads.

Truth of all this will come to light at one day in the future when thickness "surprisingly" will reach zero more or less over half of the extent. A bit an extreme that probably won't happen over night the way I describe it but it can and probably well happen on a large scale over a 1-3 weeks period and since thickness assessment in on the centimeter scale is currently not possible (reliably) we can't make even educated guesses how far we are away from this point.

Considering that most of the ice is first year ice by now, I assume that we are not that far away which is why a major storm will most probably finish most of the dispersed ice, leaving a few thick floes only.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 08:42:39 AM »
I intensely dislike Trump, but I'd appreciate it if folks would refrain from posting wishes for a direct hit anywhere, including Mar a Lago. A hurricane is not a pinpoint bomb and there are real people living there and around, I am sure they are unhappy and offended to read such stuff even if made jokingly.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 30, 2019, 08:27:23 AM »
My stupid question is whether the heat transfer effects of dynamic water evaporation and precipitation are measured, or even measurable. We know that water's net effect on climate is whether its power as a green house gas is less than, equal to, or greater than its albedo effect when in the form of clouds. I don't think this has been resolved, and is why the effect of water forcing in connection with other green house gases is a point of debate.

Does the debate also consider the evaporative cooling effect of water? the latest heat of vaporization of water is 540 cal/gram, which is 5-1/2 times more heat energy than it takes to heat 1 gram of water from 0 to 100 degrees C. If the mass of water vapor emitted by the oceans and other bodies of water could be determined, we could then calculate the quantity of heat that is carried from the earth's surface to the upper atmosphere (20,000 - 40,000 feet up) by evaporating water.

And this process is by no means a zero sum game where this heat energy falls back to earth in precipitation. Rather just the opposite. The very process of condensation means that all the latent heat of vaporization and also fusion held by the water vapor is expelled into the surrounding air. This rarified air is very cold and thin and cannot hold much water, hence precipitation. But it quickly absorbs the heat energy given up by the condensing water by its shear enormity. Because entropy dictates that heat moves from the direction of warmer air toward colder air, and because the colder air is even further up in the atmosphere, the heat is emitted back into space.

In short, my question is whether anyone has calculated and accounted for this heat energy movement from ocean to space, rather than just the effect of water vapor as either a glass ceiling that hold in heat or an umbrella that reflect the sun's energy back to space by albedo. I can't find any articles on it and don't really know its magnitude. Perhaps it's insignificant. However, I doubt that given the tremendous force of hurricanes caused by disturbances caused by extreme weather, which at its core, it extreme thermal gradients caused by rapidly evaporating and precipitating water and their attendant low pressure.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:59:42 AM »
So much hate over here.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:26:34 AM »
Since Juan is out ... my humble submission of an less complete pinch hit...:

You beat out a grounder for a hit!

The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:15:41 AM »
None of the above.
I expect extreme pressure on our Liberal Democratic civilization to develop over time.
In some places we are seeing a swing towards the Alt right. Is Nazi Germany the civilization we want for our offspring?

Our global civilisation is neither Liberal Democratic nor Nazi. It's so very much complicated than that, and these labels keep changing all the time anyway.

The probability of our global civilization collapsing is not zero over the next seventy years. The less we do to head off AGW the greater the risk.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 26, 2019, 02:24:21 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

There isn't enough feed for all the horses a nation would need in order to retire automobiles. I've posted this before but, it bears repeating:

Slap an electric hub motor on, and you can go far.

My apologies to the OP for this digression.

And yes, I hope to see a BOE within my lifetime. Preferably in ten years. It's going to happen anyways, and we'll be unprepared for it no matter how long it takes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 18, 2019, 09:11:37 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

To me, "Mission Statements" are like  "My Vision":-
Adams Family values
I don't want to be in the pageant.

Don't you want me to realize my vision?

Your work is puerile and under-dramatized. You lack any sense of structure, character, or the Aristotelian unities.

Young lady, I am getting just a tad tired of your attitude problem.

You can consider momentum as potential for extending ice melt. E.g. lots of melt ponds early in the season give rise to lower albedo and therefore lead to further adsorption of solar energy. They weaken the ice and can lead to destabilization and break up when winds and storms come by. Like a car without breaks rolls down a hill.

In the case of ice , small spells of bad weather do not stop the melting g trajectory of there is a lot of "momentum" early on.

Perhaps this series of posts by Neven is the explanation of the term though use goes back at least a further year as linked.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:09:53 AM »
I have just returned from Croatia. Thanks to everyone for the condolences. In coming days, I'll try and get things in order here on the Forum.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 01:58:31 PM »

We know why Neven is away and you want him to come back to this???

Take a chill pill, kiss and make up .and lets move on please?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 01:24:12 PM »
Haven't been coming on here almost daily for the last 5 years to read arguments, yet arguments seem to almost be an inherent part of the forum

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 01:21:01 PM »
Enough with the banter back and forth... How tiring... who cares ...accept the damn data showing a large range 1.5 - 2.5 on average and get on with it!!!  Like seeing my kids arguing about the amount of Takis shared between them.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 03:55:55 PM »
A little over a day since I have visited this thread. The contrast between those who are contributing real analysis of the melt season and those intent on disrupting this discussion is aggravating. For the latter group, would you please leave the site for a while until you can figure out how to contribute something useful?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 03:27:27 AM »
It's highly unlikely that we see the weather forecasts bomb on the pattern change.

There are many factors backing this happening.

I know that this news can be disappointing.  But this is how this works.

Even if there isn't a new record this year it will end up a top 3 melt season and volume loss could end up as a new record even if Extent isn't.

Area has no chance to be a new record.

I have been at this a long time and then disdain and snide remarks by people emotionally invested in a new record is pretty sad.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 11:53:43 PM »
Is it just me or has the entire Northern Sea Route been reduced to "slush puppie" ice that doesn't require a heavy duty icebreaker to get through?
Have you been reading the papers? Note that the new Russian LNG tanker fleet can plough  through up to 2 metres of ice and cruise through semi-open water.
LNG Tanker Makes First Summer Voyage along Northern Sea Route
The summer season has begun along the Northern Sea Route with a first transit by an LNG tanker carrying Yamal LNG to Asia without the need for icebreaker escort.

The Arc7 Vladimir Rusanov left the Sabetta port on June 29, one of 126 tanker shipments made this year from the project which has produced 9.0 million tons of LNG and 0.6 million tons of stable gas condensate so far this year.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 22, 2019, 11:43:21 PM »
Even if we have slightly more melt than precipitation right now. Most losses are happening in June and July. On the attached gif I compared the 10th July 2012 with today. It almost looks like we have no melt right now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2019, 10:03:39 PM »

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.

"the cloud" = someone else's computer  :o

just use encrypted disk images, ie. sparsbundledisimages and you're safe, very high encryption, no backdoor and by using really long PP like myself (36multilanguageetcpassphrases) it would take centuries for the bad boys to get in.

only this way the cloud is safe.

most of the stuff i simply don't care to bother about that small possibility that someone would see me or my wife naked LOL but then some 15GB that are important like banking, stocks etc stuff are strored safely and backed up to every available computer, cloud and phone i can get a hold on. even backing up to my dad's computer off-site, a bit paranoid perhaps but i run 9 full off-site  data backups and 4 bootable full on-site backups. if I lose my data i'm ripe for the island, 30 years of work, books, artwork etc. in there ;) not to forget all my digitalised venyl ;) ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 25, 2019, 06:34:17 AM »
Where did you read this?  Is there a website that tracks albedo?
One of our users, Tealight has built a whole slew of marvelous tools to follow Albedo.,1749.0.html

The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 16, 2019, 10:45:34 PM »
Nice one, Neven.

Saying, "Well, I am not a climate change "activist" (though I am a bit of a prolife activist)." is basically saying I'm so obsessed with controlling women's bodies that I can't really be bothered with trying to help save all complex life forms on the planet.

So you are so obsessed with saving the furbish lousewort that you are willing to allow a million preborn babies be killed in America every year?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April 2019)
« on: April 15, 2019, 10:55:27 PM »
Hi all. This is a new study that I am sure many on this forum will be interested in:

"Arctic sea ice volume variability over 1901–2010: A model-based reconstruction" (PIOMAS-20C):

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 28, 2019, 02:17:41 PM »
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 26, 2019, 04:58:46 PM »
KK: Your doubts are unconvincing and self-contradictory. Somewhere between skeptic and denialist. This appears to be a trend.

Anyone who is not saying that the world will end immediately but tries to stick to the facts is called a denialist and a skeptic. This appears to be a trend.

Agreed.  Since when has science taken a back seat to Eschatology.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 26, 2019, 04:57:05 PM »
Even your graphic shows minor flooding in the great lakes region, with much of the region showing no flooding.  Thank you for confirming my statement.

Even the experts agree that clouds have moderated temperature:

The level of the lakes has nothing to do with flooding.  Flooding occurs along river system, and increases with the drainage area.

Using anecdotal statements to counter the data is the real strawman argument.  Your strawman claims appear to be catching fire.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 26, 2019, 04:51:50 PM »
KK: Your doubts are unconvincing and self-contradictory. Somewhere between skeptic and denialist. This appears to be a trend.

Anyone who is not saying that the world will end immediately but tries to stick to the facts is called a denialist and a skeptic. This appears to be a trend.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 26, 2019, 01:45:18 PM »
Living within the Great Lakes region, I find this report largely misleading.  Very little flooding occurs in this region, as no major rivers, with their corresponding drainage systems, exist within these confines.  Flooding will always be more prevalent in urban areas, unlike changes occur in current drainage systems.  The great lakes region in engulfed in greater cloud cover than the surrounding areas, due precisely to the presence of the lakes.  This cloud cover, which will likely increase in a the coming years due to warming, will moderate the weather, not make it more unpredictable.  The region currently has more moderate winters and summers than the rest of the nation, which is unlikely to change.  NOAA shows the number of record high temperatures during the summer in this region to be quite low, especially compared to the rest of the country;  13 last year, 7 in 2016, and none in 2015 or 17.  All these changes will likely be a boon for agriculture, not an undermine. 

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: March 23, 2019, 08:44:50 PM »
Also I strongly advise everyone interested in truly organic gardening to read:

It is a rare gem. Really.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 23, 2019, 09:42:14 AM »
A pod of narwhal in the Arctic

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 15, 2019, 02:06:50 PM »
On the more optimistic side, large floes are finally compacting into NE Svalbard. They have a few days before the wind changes to make an attempt at fast ice.

Worldview, viirsbt15n, atlantic front, mar7-15, ascat mar7-14 inset.

A tiny chip off the Nares polynya, bottom left (see,2592.msg192004.html#msg192004)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 11, 2019, 10:53:45 AM »
I think daylight savings ruins all the charts. CCIN has gone blank as well. Who needs Y2K when the monkeys change the clocks twice a year anyways for no apparent reason.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: March 10, 2019, 07:40:25 PM »
As many of you know the DMI moved all their Greenland data products to the Polar Portal website (

I emailed them about the missing accumulated SMB map and their reply was that it isn't as popular as the anomaly map and therefore unlikely to make it over to PolarPortal. I find it dissapointing, but to brighten up my day I found their monthly raw data is freely available for research purposes. (currently Jan 1980 to Aug 2017)

So I think I produce the accumulated SMB maps myself all the way back to 1980 and create some long term SMB graphs (whole year Sep-Aug) and only the melt season (Jun-Aug). Is there anything you would like to see that's possible to create with monthly surface mass balance data?
I am greedy, - "I want it all, and I want it now"

The location of accumulated SMB is important - including the winter build-up. The anomaly this year is telling me where accumulated SMB is below and above average, but is not telling me where and how much snow has fallen. Obviously up North and uphill is likely to melt later and less strongly. So my cry is for at minimum the end of winter (May 31) accumulated SMB map. It gives the starting point for melt. Having a contour map "watermark" imposed upon it would also give an idea of how much accumulated SMB vs chances of melt. And then of course all the trends, SD etc.

I told you I was greedy. It's your fault, Tealight - you did the NH Snow / Albedo project so damn quickly and comprehensively that we now expect you to enact the US "SeaBees" mantra -
"the difficult you get now, the impossible a little later".

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: January 25, 2019, 07:04:20 PM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...?  18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!

I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there.  Is this normal?  An upwelling?  Volcanic?  Super curious.
It's warm, but probably not that warm. Thread about it here,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595

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