Messages

1

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015

« on: November 13, 2014, 12:19:56 PM »

It is not a personal attack.  It *is* a reaction to persistent misinterpretation of facts and events. You ask a lot of good questions, and make some good connections.  Other times, even in the face of pretty clear evidence that undermines an assertion you make, you persist in digging yourself in deeper.

That's what I'm reacting to.

I assure you, you are getting nothing like what I'd deliver in "full personal attack mode".  It has been known to blister paint (never in this venue), and reserve it for those who truly deserve it.  You're not on that list.



Best regards...

Well, I think you're dismissing and underestimating CH4 in the Polar atmosphere

CH4 can, and does hang around the Arctic atmosphere throughout the winter, and only with the return of sunlight does some CH4 'washed' away. Hydroxyl radicals get to work with UV and as a result of this process Noctilucent Clouds make their appearance from May. Of course other chemicals result from the process but to prove how certain I am about CH4 and  NLC's, I will predict here and now, based on the CH4 readings we're seeing, that 2015 will bring another spectacular show, more intense (and perhaps for longer) that 2014.

2

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season

« on: September 04, 2014, 03:39:25 PM »

I can't believe how little the ice melted out this year during July and August. Here I was thinking that we would have another interesting one to watch with the warmer winter the preceded it, and I totally missed the mark.  Sure the bite is pretty impressive, but after last year I just have no idea what's going on up there as the ice is more resilient than I though. Who knows what will happen next year, but I thought the ice would be a bit closer to melting out this year but I was 100 percent wrong. So confused about our climate at the moment.

I've been pondering about this too (like I'd guess many of you have too) and did suggest in the past whether tundra fires had something to do with the aparent summer melt pauses. The typical response from posters was that smoke would have initially a heating effect, not cooling, but I still think that, as summertime sunlight reaches the Arctic at an angle, a lot of radiation will be 'screened' by smoke. This coupled with the ever increasing Noctilucent Clouds could easily deter a lot of radiation that would otherwise reach the surface. Artic NLC's have a strong link with CH4 and do reach their maximum intensity by mid June heavily covering the Arctic until about early August when they usually start to fizzle out. Perhaps it is just coincidence that the 'stepping' on the ice graphs occur at the same time as Tundra fires and NLC's but perhaps they are indeed influencing the melt by blocking/diverting a fair amount of radiation whilst they're on. We'll see next year if this same pattern of smoke, Nlc's slowed melt develops like it has done for the last 4-5 years.

3

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day

« on: July 15, 2014, 05:46:53 PM »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-2693105/Giant-hole-appears-Siberia-Huge-crater-emerges-end-world.html

4

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season

« on: July 14, 2014, 01:24:39 PM »

Atomant.

So you don't accept that wildfire smoke causes warming (see above) and volcanoes cause cooling?

Any references?

Couldn't tell you if the Tundra fires smoke is having a warming and/or cooling effect within the Arctic. Krakatoa cooled global surface temperatures and so did Pinatubo -http://www.sciencemag.org/content/296/5568/727.abstract- cloud cover can do both, cool and warm but these massive Tundra fires so close to the NP blanketing the area with smoke/soot apepar to coincide with the sea ice melt slowdown seen in July/August for the last 5 years or so.

5

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season

« on: July 14, 2014, 10:31:41 AM »

These fires in Canada are completely out of control. All that smoke and soot is now drifting out over the Archipelago.

The fires prompted my post above regarding feedbacks as I'm certain these fires match big volcanic eruptions.

6

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season

« on: July 13, 2014, 11:08:59 AM »

Tundra fires ranging every year creating huge plumes of smoke that drift for thousands of miles within the arctic. Smoke that, given that atmospheric height is lower towards the poles, won't need much of a fight to reach high levels of the atmosphere. Could we compare this smoke cover to big volcanic eruptions colling effect? and if so, could said smoke have a negative feedback effect by reflecting some of the sunlight back? looking at DMI's ASI extent for the last few years, the melt does seem to 'stall' round about now when the big fires are on. I understand that ice extent depends on compaction  as well so it could be just a coincidence but, in any case  these smoke clouds are  putting the Aerosols-into-the-Stratosphere Geo-engineering idea into practice.

7

Arctic sea ice / Re: polar vortex - where?

« on: January 06, 2014, 05:56:50 PM »

Tropic to Arctic flow possibly altered possibly by northern hemisphere high pressures intensifying.

Paper here: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n11/full/ngeo1590.html

Article here: http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/10/09/global-warming-may-intensify-subtropical-high-pressure-systems-that-shape-northern-hemisphere-weather-patterns/

Pacific high so strong that split the JT a couple of times in December.

8

Policy and solutions / Re: Is the Earth F**cked??

« on: December 26, 2013, 12:46:35 PM »

Good day Bruce.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclosure

Farming has moved from the hands of the people to the corporate state ... and it's global. Monocultures of all types spread from Brazil to Borneo destroying habitats that are thousands of years old along the way. The future of food for those without their own farm/land is at the hands of corporations. People from cities get already fed this way via fast food outlets and other food processing points of sale-namely super/hyper market chains and this is settled in society as normal. The corporate state also pushes/lobbies for GM products to be sold everywhere and consumed by everyone. Said GM crops are coincidentally designed to cope with climate conditions like droughts and pests allegedly helping secure future food supply.

... this so far has not happened globally and pockets of GM resistance remain resilient but looking at the behaviour of some politicos it'd seem we are heading that way whether we want it or not. Equally, the consumption of fossil fuels and its many derivates keeps being pushed/lobbied on a global scale in a bid to continue business as usual, to support growth. With no signs of the necessary changes to the economic model anytime soon and no sign of political will to make them happen it wouldn't be wrong to assume that Geo Engineering will be the chosen option to mitigate some of the effects of AGW, if only to keep the status quo for the profiteering few.

I do agree, like many, that a revolution is needed but that has to start within the individual. The corporate state likes profit, financial success and greed and sells the idea very well. The results are hordes of youths wanting to be popular, wanting to make a quick buck,... short time profit and an egocentric view with no thought of the consequences. Fewer and fewer relate to the environment and more and more are disconnected from it. The corporate state controls food and energy in developed countries,... the uniformed consumer is at their mercy and I'd like to think they know where we are heading AGW wise, hence their race towards total control over energy and food.

The solution would be to end the corporate state. Once personal interest and gain is out humanity can work towards a common goal. Subsidies directed to the right zero emission, clean technologies. Oil refineries could be modified to refine seed oils like Hemp and produce tough bio degradable plastic and bio-fuels. Have a read here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemp, Hemp is a better monoculture all around with many advantages, environmentaly friendly and a large list of good uses, yet its UN status makes near impossible to benefit from this crop. The history of the demise of Hemp is an interesting one with cotton industry owners and polymer producers pushing/lobbying for a blanket ban to eliminate competition. Same old, same old.

Happy holidays.

9

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day

« on: September 04, 2013, 07:23:51 PM »

You beat me to it! *note to self- must come to the forum more often

As well as the Punch hole  there are 2 intriguing small vortices nearby. They are odd because of their size. A person standing under the smaller vortex would have seen a cloud spiral above him/her. Is this normal in the Arctic?

10

Permafrost / Re: Noctilucent Cloud development and Methane

« on: August 01, 2013, 05:56:43 PM »

Hi guys, I have followed NLC's for 4-5 years now. Have witnessed, digested and documented as much as I possibly can regarding NLC's. My query is what happens to all the resulting H2O afterwards. Are we losing elemental Hydrogen to space?

11

Policy and solutions / Re: What can we do to alter behaviour of other people?

« on: March 18, 2013, 07:38:02 PM »

Hi Jim,

I've learnt that David Rose is a shill for the oil business which would explain the article's nonsense. The problem I see is that this type of garbage reinforces the idea of a AGW scam and re-assures those who firmly believe that AGW is all about taxes.

For the message to reach many it has to be delivered in a simple manner, a difficult task considering the complexity of the earth's systems at play.

12

Policy and solutions / Re: What can we do to alter behaviour of other people?

« on: March 17, 2013, 10:28:13 AM »

A lot of what I do gets wiped out with articles likes this which creates more confusion.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2294560/The-great-green-1-The-hard-proof-finally-shows-global-warming-forecasts-costing-billions-WRONG-along.html

Needles to say that I'm seething...
I've done some reading on the article's journo, David Rose, and has a track of controversy. The question should be... What can we do to alter the behaviour of people like him?